SB Nation User Blog: TO falcon

Michael Turner heading for the 370 Curse, nooooooo!

TO falcon — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:55:31 -0000

Those of you unfamiliar with the 370 curse check this article out, it was written after Ricky Williams retired and is quite old but still relevant (you have to scroll down a bit for the table)

Those running backs who have had over 370 carries have seen dramatic fall offs the next season and beyond. Ask Shaun Alexander. This has happened more than once.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...lliams-retires

Michael Turner is the only RB currently on par to break the 370 mark - 332 carries with 23.7 carries per game and 2 games left. (380 carries)

Adrian Peterson is the only other RB that can come close - 320 carries with 22.9 carries per game and 2 games left. (366)

Luck in the NFL

TO falcon — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:29:06 -0000

This excellent article compares a teams wins compared with the amount of wins their stats suggest they should have....

Interestingly, Last year Packers were number 1 luckiest and Jets were number 32. This year vice versa...the correlation?.....yep you guessed it, Brett Favre is the luckiest man in football!

The Full List

RANK	TEAM	GWP	Curr W	Exp W	Luck
1	NYJ	0.42	9	6.0	+3.0
2	NE	0.45	9	6.5	+2.5
3	TEN	0.68	12	9.7	+2.3
4	BUF	0.27	6	4.0	+2.0
5	DEN	0.42	8	6.0	+2.0
6	MIN	0.49	9	7.1	+1.9
7	NYG	0.66	11	9.4	+1.6
8	DAL	0.54	9	7.8	+1.2
9	SF	0.26	5	3.8	+1.2
10	ARI	0.48	8	6.9	+1.1
11	IND	0.63	10	9.0	+1.0
12	CAR	0.72	11	10.2	+0.8
13	MIA	0.59	9	8.4	+0.6
14	PIT	0.74	11	10.5	+0.5
15	HOU	0.47	7	6.7	+0.3
16	STL	0.12	2	1.8	+0.2
17	SEA	0.24	3	3.5	-0.5
18	BAL	0.68	9	9.6	-0.6
19	TB	0.68	9	9.7	-0.7
20	JAX	0.40	5	5.7	-0.7
21	OAK	0.26	3	3.8	-0.8
22	CHI	0.62	8	8.8	-0.8
23	CIN	0.24	2.5	3.5	-1.0
24	ATL	0.72	9	10.2	-1.2
25	CLE	0.37	4	5.3	-1.3
26	WAS	0.59	7	8.4	-1.4
27	PHI	0.71	8.5	10.1	-1.6
28	DET	0.11	0	1.7	-1.7
29	KC	0.27	2	4.0	-2.0
30	NO	0.65	7	9.3	-2.3
31	SD	0.60	6	8.5	-2.5
32	GB	0.55	5	7.9	-2.9

Pro Bowl Selection since 2005 - Defensive Ends

TO falcon — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:01:10 -0000

5 Pro Bowls (2005-2009) Amount of selections:

Julius Peppers - 4
Dwight Freeney - 3
Michael Strahan - 2
Jared Allen - 2
Kyle Vanden Bosch - 2
Jason Taylor - 2
Aaron Schobel - 2
Aaron Kampman - 2
Patrick Kerney - 2
Osi Umenyiora - 2
Berrick Burgess - 2
Michael Strahan - 2
Will Smith - 1
Mario Williams - 1
Robert Mathis - 1
Justin Tuck - 1
Trent Cole - 1
Aaron Smith - 1
Betrand Berry -1

Every year there are 3 DE's chosen for each the NFC and AFC. For a different player to be chosen for each slot every year (and complete parity) there should be 30 different players in this list. There are only 19.

So to the question asked...do the same players get voted to the Pro Bowl repeatedly year upon year?

To a degree yes, obviously the way the Pro Bowl voting is structured helps this to occur. Not just the fan voting but some writers are guilty of this too.

But often, the players voted to the Pro Bowl do deserve it, and as we have found this year some suffer the number crunch. There are 3 spots and 4 players playing well enough to be selected.

After Week 15: NFC Playoff picture

TO falcon — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 20:20:39 -0000

There is some confusion about this amongst different blogs and article writers (to do with Dallas, Atlanta & Tampa all 9-5). Here's the situation (i formatted it for ease of finding your team);

West

Arizona has clinched the division.

South

Carolina has a two-game lead over Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Because the Panthers would not win a tiebreaker with either team, Carolina needs one win or one loss from both teams to clinch the division.

In the event of a three-way 11-5 tie, Tampa Bay and Atlanta would be in an extremely close Strength of Victory battle for the division title. Atlanta couldn’t win Strength of Victory, but could tie, and, with help from Dallas losing, could win based on Strength of Schedule.

North

Minnesota holds a one-game lead over Chicago, as well as the tiebreaker advantage. So one Vikings win or one Bears loss gives the Vikings the division championship.

East

The New York Giants have clinched the division.

Wild Card

The wild-card standings are as follows: Dallas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta are at 9-5, Chicago is at 8-6, Philadelphia is at 7-5-1 and plays Monday and Washington is at 7-7. New Orleans is eliminated at 7-7.

Dallas and Tampa Bay control their own destiny. Atlanta needs a loss by either team to control its own destiny. In a three-way tie with Dallas and Tampa Bay, Atlanta can not gain a Strength of Victory advantage over the Buccaneers, and if that were a tie, the Falcons would lose on Strength of Schedule.

In the event of a mutli-team 10-6 tie for the Wild Card, Tampa Bay holds a huge advantage based on conference record.

Has our punting record been vital in our success this season?

TO falcon — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:01:28 -0000

The AJC is reporting that the falcons are set to annihilate a special teams punting record set by the Buffalo Bills in 1991.

"Koenen has punted 48 times this season and just 15 have been returned for only 26 yards, 28 yards under the record. Koenen’s punts have led to 20 fair catches, most of which were covered by Antoine Harris, who suffered a groin injury and was placed on injury reserved Tuesday."

The record is 53 yards.

"The Falcons punt coverage unit will be tested on Sunday by Tampa Bay’s Clifton Smith. He was the top punt returner coming out of college last season with a 17.1 career average at Fresno State."

I think this has been a vital part of the reason we have stopped point scoring well this year despite giving up a lot of yards. I think special teams can be very underrated, especially defensive special teams.

Do you think we will miss Antoine Harris this weekend?

NFLUK - UK Perspective

TO falcon — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 03:37:25 -0000

NFLUK - UK Perspective

Just a quick fanshot for those of you who are interested in how we see the NFL and American Football from the other side of the pond, here is a link to our main site.

You may be very surprised how knowledgeable our dedicated group of fans are. There are about 200,000 members though!

For the Forum: http://forum.nfluk.com/

Its under Fanzone if you want to get there through the homepage.

Change In Valuation Over The Past 9 Years (2000-2008)

TO falcon — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 11:09:33 -0000

In a thread on another forum about a London team a discussion broke out about whether or not it could sustain an NFL team, this got me thinking about the recent valuations results. This isn't much to do with the original post but that's where i got started from.

How have valuations changed recently? How much by? Does this affect winning? Who has increased the most?

- I started by entering the valuations from both 2000 and 2008 and then ranking out of 32 (obviously with the Texans 32 due to no data).

- Next i began comparing the percentage change between valuations of franchises in 2000 and 2008. I then ranked each increase out of 32 (again the Texans 32 due to no data).

- This then lead to me working out the numerical change in rank.

- Finally i added previous data on number of wins to the end of the spreadsheet to look for correlation.

Issues with the study

- Firstly, the Texans once again caused problems as they were set up in 2002 and so were dropped from a lot of data sets.

- Secondly, the Seahawks moved divisions in 2001 but i have decided to include them in NFC valuations as in essence any potential improvement will have occurred in the NFC and this is what we are looking for.

Results

TOP 10 in 2000

1. Redskins - $741m
2. Cowboys - $713m
3. Browns - $557m
4. Bucs - $532m
5. Panthers - $513m
6. Titans - $506m
7. Ravens - $479m
8. Dolphins - $472m
9. Broncos - $471m
10. Pats - $464m

TOP 10 in 2008

1. Redskins - $1,423m
2. Pats - $1,176m
3. Cowboys - $1,173m
4. Texans - $1,043m
5. Eagles - $1,024m
6. Broncos - $975m
7. Browns - $970m
8. Bucs - $955m
9. Ravens - $946m
10. Bears - $945m

TOP 10 % Change from 2000-20008

1. Eagles - 211.25%
2. Bears - 196.24%
3. Packers - 170.33%
4. Cardinals - 158.69%
5. Pats - 153.45%
6. Colts - 152.11%
7. Chiefs - 143.60%
8. Raiders - 133.65%
9. Giants - 129.97%
10. Jets - 128.13%

Evaluation

- The first thing i noticed was that franchises appear to have large valuations early in their life cycles (Titans, Texans, Panthers), this is probably due to brand new stadia and facilities that are top of the range and heavy capital investment.

- In addition to this there appears to be a pattern of this valuation drying up (Titans and Panthers) and these franchise don't grow as fast as the others.

- The next thing that jumped out at me is that it appears the NFC behind, although gaining, on the AFC in terms of total valuation in both periods.

- However, the average increase's were:

AFC - 108.02%
NFC - 124.92%

- If this soon continues the NFC as a whole will be worth more financial than the AFC, however some may attribute that to the shift of the Seahawks, but this is not the case as i included them in the NFC count in the first place.

- The top 10 rankings appear to show parity throughout the NFL, however, the top 4 growing valued teams were all from the NFC.

- It is worth noting that the Broncos were the only team that moved up rankings numerically but not into the TOP 10 ranked % increase in valuation (18)

- The Jags were ranked 31st for increasing their valuation yet gained 4 wins over the 2 seasons, on the contrary, the Eagles increased the most and lost 3 wins over the same period.

- This leads me to believe that comparing just 2 seasons is inappropriate but also that valuation has little to do with performance.

- However, going the opposite way i would say that success feeds valuation, the most obviously example being the Patriots.

Thank you for your patience. Once again i have a spreadsheet with more data on but i can't attach it on this forum

The Winningest Team In Past 11 Years- Brief Statistical View

TO falcon — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 05:26:27 -0000

In a different forum a person mentioned merging the conferences and creating two divisions with promotion and relegation based on teams performances over the past 11 years. I thought I'd share this with you guys in case you were interested.

Now obviously this idea was slated and shot out of the water, but it got me thinking.

How have teams been doing over the past 11 years? Would there be any surprising data?

I started by compiling a spreadsheet database of win-lose records for each team for the last 11 years. I then highlighted playoff appearances and super bowl wins. I then calculated a total win-loss record for the year and used this to work out a win percentage (this meant i could compare teams who had played different amounts of games ie. Browns and Texans)

This winning percentage then allowed me to rank the teams.

Here is a basic form what i found:

Rank---Winning %---Playoff Apps---Sbowl Apps

1. Patriots - 67.04% (8 p/o Apps) (3 sb wins)
2. Packers - 62.50% (8 p/o Apps)
3. Colts - 61.36% (8 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
4. Broncos - 60.89% (8 p/o Apps) (2 sb wins)
5. Steelers - 60.51% (8 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
6. Jaguars - 56.81% (8 p/o Apps)
7. Titans - 56.25% (8 p/o Apps)
8. Seahawks - 55.68% (8 p/o Apps)
9. Eagles - 55.39% (8 p/o Apps)
10. Bucs - 54.54% (7 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
11. Vikings - 54.54% (5 Playoff Apps)
12. Giants - 53.12% (6 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
13. Chiefs - 52.84% (3 p/o Apps)
14. Ravens - 52.55% (4 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
15. Jets - 51.70% (5 p/o Apps)
16. Rams - 51.13% (5 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
17. Dolphins - 50.56% (5 p/o Apps)
18. Cowboys - 48.86% (5 p/o Apps)
19. Redskins - 46.87% (3 p/o Apps)
20. 49ers - 46.59% (4 p/o Apps)
21. Falcons - 46.30% (3 p/o Apps)
22. Chargers - 46.02% (3 p/o Apps)
23. Bills - 45.45% (2 p/o Apps)
24. Bears - 44.88% (3 p/o Apps)
25. Panthers - 44.31% (2 p/o Apps)
26. Saints - 43.75% (2 p/o Apps)
27. Raiders - 40.90% (3 p/o Apps)
28. Bengals - 38.63% (1 p/o Apps)
29. Lions - 35.22% (2 p/o Apps)
30. Cardinals - 35.22% (1 p/o Apps)
31. Browns - 34.72% (1 p/o Apps)
32. Texans - 33.33%

NFC ranks total - 280 - 48.93% (3 sb wins)

AFC ranks total - 248 - 51.36% (8 sb wins)

Obviously the lower the number the better the teams are as a whole in that conference.

Issues with the study

Firstly i would like to state there were a few issues that affected the quality of the data.

Obviously the Texans were formed in 2002 but because it was based on win percentage that didn't really matter. The same goes for the Browns missing '97 and '98.

I decided to include Tennessee Oilers as part of Tennessee Titans stats and also included all the stats from the Seahawks prior to their shift to the NFC in 2001. This therefore may affect the outcome.

I decided that tied games would count as 0.5 win 0.5 loss.

10 Key Results

1. There seems to be a massive gap with the 'Top 5' teams compared to the rest of the league. They relatively seem to have dominated the last 11 years, especially New England.

2. There are a few teams that are surprisingly high, would you say that the Packers are the 2nd best team in the NFL? (based on empirical data)

3. A few are also surprisingly low. Would you rate the Cowboys as a mid rate team?

4. Is it a surprise over the past 11 years the AFC has been a better conference? Also, would you have guessed that over the past 11 years the NFC as a whole has lost over half their games.

5. The Texans are the only team in the league to not reach the playoffs in the last 11 years. Also, only 2 teams have won the Super Bowl more than once over this period. This demonstrates the parity of the NFL.

7. Over the past 11 years we have seen 16-0 (Patriots), 15-1 (Steelers), 1-15 (Miami, Panthers & Chargers)

8. The lowest winning record of a Super Bowl winner during this period was last years Giants at 10-6.

9. 5 teams in the AFC won more than 100 games (1 with 99) - Broncos, Colts, Jaguars, Pats & Steelers (Titans), while only the Packers managed this for the NFC.

10. The AFC won 97 more games than the NFC over this period.

This was my first foray into statistical research based on the NFL so im aware that its quite simple stats but i would love any feedback as it will help me improve.

Thanks for being so patient.

This is a FanPost written by one of The Falcoholic's talented readers. Its views do not necessarily reflect those of the writer and editor of The Falcoholic.

Can we please postpone the Matt Ryan Love-Fest?

TO falcon — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 17:56:16 -0000

He has only played 6 games in the NFL..... He is 15th in the league for passing yards, Joint 15th for TD's and 17th for passer rating.... He arrived from Boston College expected to lose every game/sit on the bench this season and help the Atlanta Falcons rebuild. Who is this? Matt Ryan? Oh him! Wow... i thought he was the Tom Brady guy?!

Lets face it, the expectations for Matt Ryan were low. So to be 4-2 going into the bye week is a great situation to be in and nobody is happier about our start than me. But, using a specific choice of language, it is [I][B]our[/B][/I] start, not Ryan's. There are 52 other players on the roster all playing above expectations resulting in that winning record. Michael Turner has played a massive role in where we find ourselves. John Abraham is a possible pro bowler this year and is beating double teams to lead the league in sacks. Roddy White is 2nd in the league in Receiving yards, but more importantly all the receivers are catching the balls Ryan is throwing and making him who he is.

We were here a few years ago with a certain Mr. Vick and i can't stand here while people make the same mistakes. No QB is better than the rest of his team. The only person who comes close...

Matt Ryan is not Tom Brady. The difference? 219 games. 2208 Completions. 25,302 passing yards. 192 passing TD's.

Is it normal to hail a QB and compare them to one of the best ever before he has thrown 100 completions

I think not.

Im In the UK....

TO falcon — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 16:29:26 -0000

....so has anyone been to traning camp, i can't find much info on who has started well and who hasnt. is there any reports anywhere? i know von hutchins left with a foot injury but thats it.

i also heard that weiner is close to coming back and wondered whether he practiced?

however i have some concerns about the intensity of our training camp:

"Head Coach Mike Smith and his staff will be committed to running training camp in a relaxed but diligent pace"

i don't know about you guys but i want to hear that people can't walk when they get home and they are eating the playbook as well as reading it. i understand we want to minimize injuries as we are quite weak in certain areas (especially the lines), but i don't want them to get it easy. We need to install a regimented winning mentality so that when it gets tough during the season we can pull through.

Maybe its me or maybe its Dave the falconer but my optimism seems to be fading the closer we get to the Detroit game. I keep seeing the line up for teams such as Minnesota and New Orleans and who they have added and im wondering what is going on in our Front office.