Minnesota 87 - Cleveland 98

Well, I think we can all agree that sucked. I picked this game to write a report card because I thought it would be an easy win, and it was on a Friday so I could stay up late and give the grades right after the game. Turned out it was an almost unwatchable game, and I fell asleep right after it was done anyways.

The only good thing that happened tonight was that League Pass Broadband performed well, and for that I will give it a B+. Now, on to the player grades, which may not be as generous.

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I know there are a lot of not-Bill Simmons fans out there, and that a lot of the trade rumors flying around are getting ridiculous, but he did just come out with a pretty insightful 'ESPN trade-machine' article.

First, I think it is a really good read because he breaks players into 'values,' similar to the tier system a lot of teams use during the draft. The link to the article is here:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6693430/painting-nba-trade-picture

One aspect that is interesting is how much coverage the Wolves are getting these days, and how much of a secret liking Simmons has apparently taken to them (even though he stills gets his jabs in).

A few of the more interesting parts below the fold.

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For a little while this season I thought that the Wolves were 'un-clutch.' Turnovers and very rookie-like play seemed to too often cause us to lose games that we should have otherwise won.

But, according to a little something called statistics, it turns out we aren't so bad.

The Miami Heat just lost another tough game, and it seems people are going a little crazy. But I don't think anyone here would think twice if we could trade our team for theirs (unless you really really hate LeBron). And, as it turns out, they are 5-13 in games decided by 5 points or less.

Obviously this is a weak point of ours too, and it turns out we are 4-12 in the same situations. We pick up one more close win, and one more close loss (this one should be easy), and we are right there with 'em.

Although clearly their 28 more total wins gives them the slight overall edge, it actually is a bit of a silver lining for us. If one of the best teams in the league can choke in close games, so can we.

It probably means nothing, but a few ideas can be examined with regards to these similar close game records:

According to Hollinger at ESPN, he has found that close games have a close to even probability of going either way. That is to say, the better team doesn't necessary have the better chance of winning a game tied with 30 seconds left. That is why his automated rankings use point differential as one of the main factors. This is obviously wrong if you extend the idea too far, but it makes sense if the games ends up hinging on one or two last second shots.

If you think about Hollinger's hypothesis, and apply it to these two teams, it also kind of makes sense. The Heat are much better, but have a similar close game record. Could it be that random chance is affecting some of our win/loss outcomes more than we could have thought?

Another thought; they don't have a clear crunch-time hierarchy, and neither do we. In end of game situations it is never clear if Wade of LeBron is going to try and take over, and for last second shots it appears to be even more convoluted. We have a similar problem where-in no one is really sure who should be taking over the game or even taking the last shot.

The lack of alpha dog train of though is probably more correct, but at least there is a bit of reason behind the idea that we may be getting screwed by the odds. I don't think I'd weigh too heavily into this theory, but it sure sounds nice.

That the Wolves' opponent FG% is only 46.1%, and they actually rank in the middle of the league in this, at  #18.

Also, despite very popular belief, opponents 3P% is 36.8%, making us 22nd in the league. Not great, but we are sandwiched between New York and Portland, making it look pretty decent.

And as if we couldn't already feel any better, Cleveland is letting their opponents shoot and unfathomable 42.2% on three pointers.

This obviously should of been saved for Feel Good Friday, but I know I'll forget by then, so here is a quick Fanpost on a slow day. Also, I do understand these are rough, and that more advanced metrics may find us closer to the bottom of the league, but really, those percents don't look too shabby.

Anywho, enjoy the weekend, and let's see if we can get a win in Philly tonight. I know I'll be watching on a grainy 5x4 feed on my computer.

Simple question: In 5, 10 years what is Johnny Flynn going to be doing?

Now, this of course could lead to some pretty funny answers; 'playing golf,' 'lightly up Broadway with that smile,' but I am interested to see how you think he will be doing. It seems a lot of people are very low on Mr. Flynn right now, and although his current play is atrocious, I just don't feel like shipping him away for nothing is a correct response. (Especially Thabeet, my goodness...)

Me, personally, I saw way too much skill last year to think that Flynn doesn't have a long ways up to go. I do feel it will be a trek, and the Wolves will probably have given up on him by then, but to my eyes Flynn will be a good starting PG in the NBA in 3 or 4 years.

He works too hard and has too good of an attitude not to be. He has been really embarrassed about his play lately, and that just makes me think higher of him as a person and as a basketball player. This kid cares, and that is something this is not only important in the locker room, but in the development throughtout a career. Also, his quickness and scoring ability seem to be totally forgotten, he can light it up. With some patience and practice he will be able to settle down and make smarter plays, and that is when he will blossom.

So there you have it, I am most likely in the minority, but I am fully confident that Flynn will be a really good player in the future. Regardless of your opinions of him now, or if you want the Wolves to move him, how good of a player do you think Flynn will end up being?

With our latest loss to San Antonio, the Wolves managed to move up two spots in the computerized Holinger Power Rankings over at ESPN. A lot of that jump was due to other teams losing to worse teams, but still, our rating improved because of another close loss.

At current we are number 22 according to John's formula, and most of the season has been spent at 24. The wins may not be piling up, but at least there is some way of skewing the stats to show that there is some hope to be had.

If we could just play the Spurs every game, and only lose by a little bit... why, we could be the best team in the league.

Anyways, I wanted to make a poll on this earlier, but tonight's game against Washington is going to be a very big one, one it seems we really need to win to keep this season from starting to spiral into 17 win territory. The bad teams of the league just take turns beating each other, and it seems as if we are due. We have had a tough little losing streak here after what seemed to be a real promising start of the year. B-Easy is probably not gonna play, and the Wiz's good guard play will most likely rip us apart, but is there hope to be had?

So I just want to know, who do you expect to win the game tonight?

Well, here we go again. I make a post every so often just getting out some of my ideas that have been gathering in the comments. And, truthfully, they are normally not that good. Only a marginal effort at writing well, and the ideas are less flushed out than one of those good S-N-P or Oceanary posts.

But, with that in mind, I have tons of thoughts. And to make it easier on myself, I am just going to make this a big old long winded list.

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So this is a totally hypothetical post, with an idea I just kinda pieced together. No rumors behind it, but it does make a bit of sense.

Recently there has been some talk about maybe bringing in another wing, someone like Andre Iguodala. Put me on record as saying I don't think that would be a good idea at this moment, and it seems that with the return of Webster our rotation is clogged up enough as is.

But, as most of you have heard, the Magic just traded away Marcin Gortat, and are actively looking for another big man to fill in behind Dwight. It is obviously unclear who exactly the Magic are looking for, and what they are willing to trade, but if our health returns, we do have 3 big men on our roster.

It was also mentioned in an ESPN chat, but Kosta Koufos might be a very attractive target (as in, one of the only available 7 footers in the league) for Orlando.

So the question is then, what do they give up? Well, with all their trades they now have a huge log jam at the 1-2-3, and Reddick, who hasn't been getting a ton of minutes this year anyway, is probably one to get the short end of the stick.

It seems be very conceivable that we could trade a legit 7 footer who can play decent minutes for J.J. We might have to throw in a pick on a salary to match, but what do you all think?

Personally, I still am of the line of reasoning that we should let our rotartin settle, let our players grow for a season, but J.J. would certainly be less of a shake up than Iggy, and he wouldn't need to be garunteed minutes. Plus he is a hard working defender, high IQ guy, and good shooter. All things that could help quite a bit.

How much should we be willing to give up in addition to Kosta if we have a chance to get him?

So I was doing my daily stroll through some NBA and Wolves articles, and I thought of two good ideas for a post. Instead of splitting them up into two different ones, I figured I might as well combine them into one post. The first part is a little bit of interesting analysis from looking over the Hollinger power rankings, and the next part is a question about making the playoffs in the future.

Part 1 - Power Rankings:

Right now we are 24th in the ESPN Hollinger power rankings. For any of you unfamiliar, it is a computer generated power ranking based on a formula that Hollinger came up with. I don't live and die by it, but it is pretty good, and it doesn't have any bias. The rankings put a lot of weight into margin of victory and strength of schedule, among other things. Wins and losses don't really factor in. The finished product is a team 'rating,' by which the teams are ranked.

So, by looking at some tidbits on his rankings, a few things can be noted.

The loss to Portland really was a moral victory. We actually improved our rating by only losing by 5 to the 14th ranked team.

Likewise, when the Warriors beat us by 9, they improved their rating less than we did in our loss to Portland.

Also, Indiana beat Cleveland by 9, but it's ranking lowered.

The point here is that it isn't all about wins and losses. Sure the instant return of a win is nice. And to be honest, I have been getting pretty sick of all the moral victories and tough losses too, but a tough loss to a good team (the two Spurs games sure come to mind), is still sometimes better than a win against a bad team.

Part 2 - Next Year's Playoffs

So here is an interesting questions I have been playing with. Do you think that this team, assembled as is, with a full year of growing pains, could make the playoffs next season?

Just so we are on even ground, we get a pick in the draft, number 6, 7 or 8 or something, and it's a fine player, but not a starter and not a huge impact.

Also, Rubio does not come over. This is just because the opinions on him seem to vary so much and no one really knows for sure how good he will be or what will happen.

So, basically, do you think the team we have now, with reasonable development and maturing, could make the playoffs next year?

I just saw this over on The Basketball Jones blog. It's good for a few laughs, I'm sure we have all noticed a good variety of goofy Corey faces these last few seasons.

During last night’s game against the Warriors, Corey Brewer displayed a variety of zany faces after various mishaps. What follows is a breakdown of each of these reactions…

http://blogs.thescore.com/tbj/2010/12/15/examining-corey-brewers-various-reactions/

So here I am, up late at night, tabbing between all my favorite sites, hoping for an update. Reading all the posts on Canis Hoopus, reading all the comments, even the ridiculous ones that I know will get me upset.

So what should I do? Perhaps I should make a rambling Canis Hoopus posts.

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I understand the reason for all of our immediate reactions and analysis of the Wolves. For one, it's fun, and it is what makes being a fan interesting. If you just watched games and accepted the outcomes then watching sports wouldn't offer much.

And I definitely understand that we have been sold the same line over and over for a long time. It makes it hard to be patient if we keep getting told to be patient season after season after season.

But I am going to try and help out the Wolves, and their front office, and everyone who can see where this team is going.

Patience. Everybody, please have patience.

This isn't like other years. This season we have so many brightspots, and so much talent. No longer are we cheering on a streak of games where Randy Foye scores 20 and makes a run in the fourth. And no longer do we have to consider Jefferson getting 2 blocks a moral victory.

We have very good players every where that you look. And please, have patience. We aren't winning yet because everyone on this team is on a brand new team. Almost everyone is in a brand new role. All that we know now is that we have a lot of talent, what we do not know is how high the ceiling of this team is.

So why, in the face of all our talent and youth, and learning, do so many people feel the need to react so quickly to everything that happens?

A bad shooting night for Beasley is a good thing. He will go back into the gym, work on getting to his spots, and driving to the basket more. It doesn't mean he will never be an elite player. We will have no idea if Beasley reaches his potential until at least 4 years from now.

Wes Johnson has all the talent in the world. He has one of the best shots in the league, plays great defense, and is an elite athlete. What exactly in that formula make anybody think he will not be a great player and borderline allstar in a few years?

Darko can't hit a shot, but he leads the league in blocks. That alone is worth 7 mil a year.

And we could easily go on. We have a defensive stopper in Brewer. A big time gap filler in Toliver, a low post scorer in Pek, and I guess we have Mr. Kevin Love too.

But maybe it comes down to winning. We aren't winning games. That makes it tougher to stay confident for sure. But what is the point of winning now anyways? Durant had his share of bad losing seasons. And if that is the team we want to emulate, then we better start there.

Why do we need to win now anyways? When Ron Artest was recently asked about his drop in stats he said, "so what, I'm not gonna be president with 5 rebounds."

Well, we aren't gonna be in the playoffs with 35 wins. Nor will we be NBA champs with 45 wins. So don't count 'em. Just look at the players, watch them try to develop, and enjoy the fun product we have and the incredible skill level our team offers.

But please have patience. This team needs seasons to develop, not games. We have too much talent to get panicky and trade some of our best players. Reading comments like 'we should trade Wes, or B-Easy, or pick up Iggy' are missplaced. We don't need to do any of those things. We just need to let this team brew.

Making a trade means you see where there is a weakness and you are trying to improve it. We have no idea what our weaknesses our right now. We have a starting PG and a SG coming into our rotation any day now. We have a potential star overseas, just try to relax and enjoy the development of our team.

I'll start worrying about the wins with you guys in a couple seasons.

I mean, I know that winning is good, and our expectations said that we should win 30 games.

But that is just a made up number with a made up meaning. Does 22 wins mean we are worse than 30 wins?

Seems like a silly question, but the answer is no. We are not going to make the playoffs, and we are not going to do anything of significance this year. So I ask you, why turn so upside down when we loose?

So what if we win 5 close games this year and bump our record a tad.

This season is all about player development. Growing our team and growing our culture.

You may be saying, look at how many games we have lost in the clutch, where is the development.

Well, almost everyone on our team is playing in a brand new role this year, developing comfort and skills take years, not games.

You might be saying, where does this leave our culture? Well, wins are necessary to help that. But so are tough losses. Did the Thunder/Sonics develop a losing culture after a handful of bad seasons?

Do not get put out by a tough loss. I know that it is more fun to watch a win, but these have no negative impact on what our team is.

Am I drinking the Kool-Aid? Maybe... but in the words of a certain NBA player, "chill." Just think about all the talent we have, and while an instant gratification of a win is nice, it gives our team only so much. Our team has almost no ceiling, we just need to let them grow.

Definitely not. So far this has been depressing. Things are not going like I expected them to, and the bad attitudes and negativity can't lead to anything good as the season continues. And I am not talking about the Wolves's season.

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Perhaps the two European big men we signed turn out to play at the level we expect them to. Perhaps Kahn's plan that he is enacting of creating a long running team works out? What happens when our team develops, plays some good ball, and in a few years is in the playoffs? What do all these media people say then?

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I was just thinking over all the options that we have in this draft, and there are many different ways it can take shape for our team. We can move up or down within the top 2-7 picks. We can move around the middle of the draft with our 16 and 23 picks, and we can use players as well as cap space as well as our numerous draft picks to try and make a team to be excited about next season.

So with all that has been said and done during the last few weeks, what do you feel is the ideal outcome for the draft?

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After last draft Kahn said his main regret was not doing everything he could to move up and get the guy he really wanted (Tyreke). This year we are in a similar position with the #4 pick, and presumably the guy that we really want is going to go a few spots ahead of our pick.

So, does this mean that Kahn may overreact and spend too much to try and get this star player he keeps talking about, or would he have the nerve to get another lower pick (5-7), and potentially end up without a star? What move would be best? Put all the chips into a high pick, such as Turner, or get two lower picks, maybe Cousins and Johnson or Aminu?

My opinion is that Cousins and Johnson/Aminu is better for our team and future than Turner and assets (Al, Love, picks), but this is a big question, and probably the two options that Kahn is most weighing right now.