Today on the John Lund Show I heard some serious accusations about how much better the Blazers are without Brandon Roy.  At one point Lund claimed: "I started looking at the schedule and it wasn't significantly different with him than without him."  Well, that made me curious.  It sure seemed like the schedule was much lighter during the games he was out.

What I uncovered makes me sick.  And I hope it makes some of you rethink the way you are perceiving Brandon Roy's impact on this team.

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A quick disclaimer-- this post is not about who should start.  I could care less who the starters are.  It's also not debating rotation.  The "first unit" "second unit" conversation is something I have a hard time getting into.  Championship teams simply play 8 man rotations in the playoffs.   So really, the rotation becomes almost irrelevant late in the year.


Ok- now that I've started a totally random debate... Here's my point: The Steve Blake discussion has almost universally surrounded his ability to spread the floor at hit 3's vs Andre Miller's inability.  The Steve Blake supporters point to his past clutch 3's (against Toronto- late against the Pistons), the doubters point to the fact that he has shot poorly this season or that his defense is more of a liability than his offense.

Here's the problem with this debate.  I will concede that Blake is a far superior shooter than Miller.  How about I even concede that Blake is "clutch" (this pains me but I will give up for argument's sake).  Now, there's 4 minutes left in the game and the Blazers are down 1.  Steve Blake dribbles the ball up.  Roy get's the pass at half court with 12 seconds on the shot clock.  Blake runs to the corner.  The opposition immediately runs a second defender at Roy at half court.  Who does he pass to now?  Oden at the top of the key?  Webster on the wing?  Aldridge?  Rudy standing next to him??  He can't even see Blake anymore.. So if Blake is our big clutch shooter, how is he going to get the ball?  He needs someone else to break down the defense for him.  So he's left standing in the corner, essentially able to do nothing.  The only player on the team able to break down the defense at this point is Miller (I suppose Bayless if you want to go there, but he's just not getting in the game). 

So now you say-- let's put the 3 guard line-up out there.  To that I say simply: I want a championship some day.  Don't you?  History repeats itself for a reason.  It's hard to find a championship team in modern history playing 3 pt guards late in games (and Roy is in many ways a pt guard).  I believe the Rockets had Sam Cassell and Kenny Smith on the floor together at times, but that's the closest instance I can remember..

I've noticed an interesting trend in the last few games that I find curious.  In fact I can't find any valid reason for why it is happening.  I'm hoping one of you can shed some light on this issue.  Nate has begun making defensive substitutions late in games (or rather I think that's what he is doing).  The most obvious ones have been removing Rudy Fernandez from the game (and generally putting Andre Miller back in).  This has left us with a lineup of Andre, Roy, Blake, Aldridge, Oden.  I think my first question is simply: how can the three guard line-up with Blake, Miller, Roy possible be our best defensive line-up?  Regardless of whether you remove Fernandez, the "starting" line-up just can't be the best defensive lineup, can it?  Is there some statistical proof or otherwise that this is the case? 

My other big question is: why is Rudy considered such a defensive liability?  Sure he plays defense "differently" than other players, but he also gets his hands on looseballs, does a reasonable job staying in front of his man and is probably the best weakside rebounder of all our guards.  In fact- I've seen a number of posts saying the Atlanta game was Rudy's first "good" game, and I think there is a serious misunderstanding of the intangibles that he brings to the game that no other player on this team does.  The things that aren't captured by shooting percentage.

An arguement for another time, perhaps.  Please, help me out here.  Why is this defensive substitution occuring?

Dear Ron,

The end is near.  It's been a wonderful ride.  You've ridden the Rasheed wagon for years and years: "A superstar in waiting, if only he would get his head right."  Well, I'm sorry to say you are about to be exposed.  When your Rockets can't get out of the first round you'll finally be exposed for what you truly are:  A terrible offensive player, with no discernible moves or skills, and an average defender who gets by because someone long ago "designated" you a great defender.  Oh sure- you get stops.  One on one you make life hard for the Brandon Roys of the world.  Let's face facts, though.  You are refereed more different than any player in the league.  You probably foul 10 times for every 1 that gets called.  Finally, all these dirty tactics will show you for what you are this series: A Fraud!  And when you have the ball in your hands at the end of every game and you throw up those crazy fade away 3's that have no chance of even hitting the rim, your career will be over.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Sincerely,

People who actually appreciate the game of basketball everywhere.

I'm definitely not an advocate of drastic measures late in the season, but this has just hit an absolute new low.  Blake has zero confidence at this point.  The supposed "solid" description is simply not true anymore.  He makes mistakes (and a lot of them).  Even worse, his mistakes consistently lead to break away dunks by the opponent.  They aren't your standard throw the ball out of bounds- miss a 3 type.  They are throwing the ball away at halfcourt, blowing open layups, turning the ball over in transition (which always leads to a break the other way), and the worst of all is giving guys like Pryzbilla the ball at the three point line (with no hope of succeeding).  

Now, Sergio and Bayless have essentially played like High Schoolers the last two weeks, so I'm not advocating starting them.  It's time to start Roy with Rudy.  This way, Blake can come off the bench hopefully this will alleviate some of the pressure on him.  An added benefit is that this might help Roy establish himself early, rather than waiting until the second half.  

The biggest thing here, is that at this rate this team is pretty much locked into that 7th/8th spot.  If the move doesn't work, so what?  Were we going to get to the finals with Blake? But what if it does work?  What if they play well?  Doesn't it completely change the off-season and what moves you make?  The simple fact is that we know the outcome of Steve Blake "starting point guard".  Let's gather some new information before it's too late.

It's just too bad for him.  Last night was the straw that broke the camal's back.  There is simply no way that he is this team's starting point guard going next fall.   From a purely general standpoint, I guarantee that if you gave any team in the league the option of choosing a player to lead a 3-2 fast break with 35 seconds left down 2, the vast majority of them would be pretty happy to have it be their point guard.  In the Blazers case, it's becoming increasingly clear that's not the case.  This is the third MAJOR late game blunder by Blake that I can remember this season (Indiana and the Clippers) and there is definitely one more I'm forgetting.  The real problem here is not that he has made a few mistakes (and in fact during the vast majority of the game he makes fewer than most).  The real problem is that a team needs to be able to trust it's point guard down the stretch to make good sound decisions.  Of course, for now he's a better option than the 2 point guards behind him, but it's simply too bad that he appears to have lost all confidence in late game scenarios.  I actually believed he was a perfect compliment to Brandon Roy but I think a pattern that can't be ignored has been developed.  The perfect example of how for whatever reason the pressure appears to get to him is who shoots technical free throws.  Essentially since that Clipper game Blake no longer shoots the technical free throws, even though he is statistically the second best shooter on the team. 

I can see why this looks like a negative post after one single loss (a game in which the Maverick's more or less out played the Blazers) but I'm interested if people think this is something that he can grow out of, or if it is just something that is in his head right now.  I don't think you can argue that it isn't relevant or that it isn't a pattern. 

The one thing that truly dissapointed me from last night's game against Denver was the glimpse of Nate's speech to the team.  Now I understand that we only heard a small portion and that the rest of the speech may have been entirely different.  However, he was actually saying (and I'm trying to paraphrase since I don't have the game recorded): "We're only down 9.  That's pretty good.  We're doing pretty well.."  He seemed to almost be begging the team to feel good about themselves.  The fact is that they were terrible in the first half (they were definitely lucky to be down 9 if that's what he meant).  They were completely out of position on defense and they just flat looked scared to me (no different than every other big road game this year).  I'm not suggesting that these are games this team should be expected to win yet.  I am, however, suggesting that THEIR expectations should be higher.  Competitors simply believe in themselves more than that.  Nate's manner of addressing the team means one of two things to me:

1) This team has SERIOUS confidence issues and he feels the need to constantly baby them (this is consistent with how they seem to treat Oden).

OR 

2) Nate just doesn't truly believe they are ready to compete (in other words, he can't yell at them or be upset because they are just meeting his expectations)

Either of these are troublesome.  As I mentioned before, competitors (especially great competitors) have an almost overconfidence. More importantly, if Nate doesn't believe in this team, is there any reason to think that he will believe in them next year, just with growth?  Either way, I just found his words to be discouraging.

***UPDATE***  Once again the irrational lovers just took this as hating on Nate.  Please someone, anyone respond to the crux of the question.  What does it mean that he was more or less complimenting them on the first half?  I'm just submitting that he feels the need to build up their confidence and it concerns me that he has to do that.  It's amazing that everyone immediately read into this post that I was bashing Nate.  Do you people even read the post?

I believe Martell is getting his boot off today for another "check up".  Considering the incredible detail with which his injury has been described all year long, any predictions for the team's press release?  

My guess: "Martell Webster was reevaluated by doctors today and will continue to wear a boot for 4-42 days.  His status has been upgraded to probable."

I'm actually of the opinion that Webster could still help even if he can't get back until the very end of the regular season.  He's the one guy that doesn't need a lot of minutes to produce.  If (and it's a big if) his jumper is still there, when the offense sputters you can just run him off picks and get instant points.  I'll never forget his huge 3rd quarter against Utah last year.

I in no way want this to be a post about Outlaw's overall effectiveness or his fit on this team.  That's been debated a million times over.  Regardless of how poor his defense is, his offense generally makes up for it.  I do however want everyone else to be forced to endure my pain when watching him run into picks.  It's become soooo glaring that I can't watch anything else while he's on the floor.   During the game tomorrow night just follow him around the court and watch what happens when his guy runs off a pick.  Outlaw simply runs directly into the pick (even when he clearly sees it coming from across the court) and then essentially grapples with the guy picking him.  He makes no attempt to go around the pick or to fight through it.  He acts as if he's hugging his Grandma.

Now this isn't exclusive to Outlaw but his "method" of struggling to find his way around the pick is by far the most painful to watch.  The thing that bothers me is that I don't think it's a lack of effort.  Rather it actually looks like he just doesn't know what else to do when he approaches a pick.  In a sense it's as if he's been conditioned to just assume he can't make it around.  Trust me- from now on watching Travis grapple through picks will drive you crazy...