The Phoenix Suns' general posture has been to rebuff trade inquiries for star guard Steve Nash, but the Suns have had discussions this month with the Minnesota Timberwolves about a deal to send Nash to Minnesota in a package for the No. 2 overall pick in Thursday's draft, according to sources briefed on the talks.

The talks, though, haven't advanced beyond the exploratory stage because of what sources described as a "mutual conclusion" by both teams that such a deal would ultimately not work for the Wolves because of Nash's presumed desire to land with an established title contender if he finally leaves the Suns.

Sources say that the player Phoenix covets in the draft is Arizona forward Derrick Williams, although Suns officials have publicly denied reports that they have alternatively offered centerMarcin Gortat and the No. 13 overall pick for the No. 2 selection instead of Nash.

Nash, who turned 37 in February, has one season left on his contract valued at $11.7 million. The Wolves' fear, sources said, is that trading for Nash under those circumstances means they'd have him for a season at best before he moved on in free agency.

So the Wolves, according to sources, continue to explore other trade options with the No. 2 selection, such as a proposal to Washington that the Wizards have steadfastly declined in which Minnesota has tried to acquire JaVale McGee and the No. 6 pick for the No. 2 pick.

Numerous teams, most notably New York, Portland and Orlando, have been trying to persuade the Suns to trade Nash for months, but Phoenix has quickly rejected the overwhelming majority of those overtures.

Yet the opportunity to acquire a draft pick high enough to land them a player with local ties like Williams is a scenario that the Suns could apparently stomach to part with one of the most popular players in franchise history.

ESPN.com reported in February that the Wolves were already targeting Nash, long before they knew they'd even have the No. 2 pick to dangle, as an ideal mentor to young Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio, who finally arrived in Minnesota this week two full seasons after Rubio was selected with the fifth overall pick in the 2009 draft.

But the Wolves, sources say, have likewise always known that the prospect of actually completing a deal for Nash would be complicated and risky. The assumption around the league is that the Suns, once they do decide they're ready to trade him, would work with Nash to send him somewhere he'd like to be if possible as a reward for his loyal service in two separate Phoenix stints.

Nash, who's preparing to host his annual charity soccer game Wednesday in New York featuring NBA and international soccer stars, has consistently said that he will not request a trade despite the Suns' failure to even make the playoffs last season.

"Maybe I'm old school," Nash told ESPN.com in January, "but I signed a contract to play here and I want to honor it. I feel like I owe it to my teammates and the city and everybody to keep battling until they tell me it's time to go."

Marc Stein is a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. Chad Ford is ESPN's NBA Insider.

Sam Amico is reporting that the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves are discussing a potential trade for the second overall selection in the NBA Drat.

Amico mentions Danny Granger, Ricky Rubio and Michael Beasley as some of the players being discussed between the two teams, so clearly these two teams are looking to make a major deal. If David Kahn deals the second overall pick and gives up Rubio and Beasley in the same trade, he better receive a haul of talent in return or he's going to face some serious backlash from the fans.

Interesting twist in the LBJ saga.  I think this really puts Cleveland in a tough spot to re-sign him.  What's a better fit?   Joining Noah, Rose, Gibson and Boozer (and Deng) in Chicago or Bosh and Wade in Miami?  I wonder if Bulls don't offer Cleveland a sign and trade with Deng + ??? so at least LBJ feels Cleveland isn't being left high and dry.

So we can finally put to bed the Al for Deng rumors.  The Nets are really on the outside looking in at this point.  I have to think NJ will make a big play for Lee now.

 

Source: Boozer has Bulls deal

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Carlos Boozer is the latest domino to fall, agreeing to a five-year, $80 million contract with theChicago Bulls, a source close to the negotiations told ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher on Wednesday.

Boozer follows agreements by premier free agents Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami, Amare Stoudemire with the Knicks and Joe Johnson in Atlanta.

The Bulls are still in the running for LeBron James, who is going to make an announcement Thursday on ESPN. But Chicago would have to do some creative financing to fit the superstar under the cap after this deal.

Boozer average 19.5 points and 11.2 rebounds per game for the Utah Jazz last season, his sixth with the team. In his eight-year career, he has averaged 17.2 points and 10.2 rebounds per contest.

Boozer's name has come up in trade discussions involving the Bulls numerous times over the past few years.

ESPN article below.  It will be interesting to see how this affects trade market for Al and the pursuit of David Lee, who along with Boozer is last of the the big men FAs.

 

Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are teaming up together on the Miami Heat, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

 

Wade Bosh

 

ESPN's Shelley Smith also reported the pending move through independent sources.

Whether LeBron James, the kingpin of this summer's celebrated free agent class, will join them remains to be seen. James will announce his decision Thursday night at 9 ET during a one-hour special on ESPN.

Wade and Bosh are expected to announce their decision on Wednesday, according to the source.

James or not, the Heat could emerge as one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference with Wade and Bosh aboard. Wade, who led the Heat to the NBA title in 2006, is re-signing with the club, while Bosh will leave the Toronto Raptors after seven years with the club.

Both players are expected to get the maximum amount allowable under the league's collective bargaining agreement, though the addition of James could change the players' salaries. Contracts cannot be officially signed until July 8.

It was not immediately clear whether Bosh will sign with Miami outright or join the Heat through a sign-and-trade deal. Bosh could earn $125 million over six years via sign-and-trade, but only $96 million over five without it.

"Either way, he's definitely going to Miami," the source said.

 

So first Portland waived Gomes instead of flipping his contract and now the Nets have done the same with Dooling.  Many at CH were critical of Kahn for not maximizing Gomes' contract on draft night, but the reality has set in:  these contracts weren't very valuable.  Portland didn't do anything with this asset and neither did NJ.  While I'd have liked to squeeze a future first rounder out of Portland in our trade, I'd rather have Webster than just waiving Gomes.

 

According to Chris Mannix of Sports Illustarted, the Nets have waived Keyon Dooling.

As ESPN's Chris Sheridan reported last week, "only $500,000 of Dooling's 2010-11 salary of $3.83 million is guaranteed if he is waived before July 1."

So the Nets saved about $3.3 million here.

There was talk the Heat were interested in trading Michael Beasley to the Nets for Dooling's contract in an effort for them to shed even more cap space for their quest to sign max free agents in addition to Dwyane Wade.

It was an unlikely scenario -- the Nets weren't interested -- that is now off the table completely.

Any other team looking to shed cap space -- such as the Bulls, who may still unload James Johnson to create more room -- will now be unable to do so via this route.

Andy Katz is reporting we're swapping picks.  He has details messed-up, but let's see what happens.  Perhaps we're sending 16 and 23 to Memphis for #12...I'd do this in a heartbeat if we're confident we can get George or Henry.

The Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves are close to swapping first-round draft picks, a source with direct knowledge of the situation tells ESPN.com's Andy Katz.

The Grizzlies would send their 16th overall pick to Minnesota for the Timberwolves' 25th and 28th picks.

We all know the NBA draft is more about "tomorrow" than today. The league is filled with great players with below-average (or worse) rookie seasons. Dirk Nowitzki averaged eight points per game on 40 percent shooting and 20 percent from 3-point range. Al Jefferson couldn't beat outRaef LaFrentz and Mark Blount in the Celtics' rotation and averaged eight points and four rebounds per game. Even an experienced college player like Steve Nash did not enter the league and get an immediate chance to help his team, as he played just 10 minutes and averaged three points and two assists per game. However, there are rookies ready to make a difference today, and it often does not matter how many years of college they have played. So let's examine the 10 most NBA-ready players in the draft.

 

 

1. John Wall 
What do these guys all have in common -- Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings,Ty Lawson, and Darren Collison? They all play the point, had huge rookie seasons and are blazingly fast. Speed is perhaps the most important physical advantage a player can have in this league, and Wall is loaded with it. Players who can play super fast with the ball in their hands are even more dynamic. Think LeBron James, Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, the three fastest guys at their respective positions in the league. Wall will certainly have growing pains, for lots of reasons. But his talent with the ball is evident, and often his pure speed will allow him to dominate parts of games no matter whom he is playing against.

 

2. Patrick Patterson 
Patterson ranks second because of the intangibles he possesses, along with his better-than-expected size and talent. Defensively, he should make huge strides due to his college experience, as well as his quickness and maturity. He'll learn to lock in from day one. Want to know how important defense is in the NBA? Of the 16 playoff teams this season, 15 of them ranked in the top 16 in defensive efficiency (Phoenix was the outlier). Patterson will be able to defend most 4s and many 5s, and flourish in any defensive scheme. He also has an excellent offensive game, so earning playing time -- and trust -- from his coach should be easy.

 

3. Evan Turner 
Speed might be the ultimate weapon in the NBA, but "craft" takes a close second. Turner is often compared to Brandon Roy, and fairly so. Both guys excel at a position where many guys are tremendous athletes. Neither Roy nor Turner is that type of player, though, and neither guy is anything more than slightly above average in height or length for their position. But Turner, like Roy, finds ways to impact games thanks to his mind and skill level. One big advantage that crafty guys have over pure speed guys is their ability to adjust and figure things out on the fly. Turner can expect some rough outings initially, and he'll get overwhelmed by some matchups, but he'll bounce back and find ways to succeed at a very high level, just like he did in college.

 

4. DeMarcus Cousins
Cousins is the hardest guy to project, for a variety of reasons. He could have topped this list or he could have dropped out altogether. Which team drafts him will tell a part of the story, as some franchises and coaches are better than others at developing young talent. A team would make a mistake by treating Cousins like most other players, coaching him for a few hours a day and then leaving him alone. Cousins needs more than that, and if he gets it, he could be the NBA Rookie of the Month in November. He has all the tools to be an impact guy right away; that much is certain. Hands, feel, skill, size -- all are huge pluses for him over many of his more experienced future opponents.

 

5. Gordon Hayward 
Before anyone gets alarmed that two of my top five guys are projected to be picked outside the top five draft picks, let me remind you that last year's top 10 picks produced only three guys who finished in the top 10 in player efficiency rating (Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill). Remember, this is not a five-year projection, but a look at who can play best right away. That leads us to Hayward, who, despite some suspect shooting numbers, has the game to earn serious minutes at the start of the season. We love scorers, but NBA coaches have to play guys who can fit into their system on both sides of the court and help out with the tougher parts of the game like rebounding and hustle. Even if Hayward struggles as a perimeter shooter, he performs so well at other parts of the game that it will be hard to keep him off the court. Think of him as the perimeter version of Jonas Jerebko, only better.

 

6. Dominique Jones 
The draft seems to always produce guys outside of the top 20 candidates who end up as top-tier rookies. Anthony Morrow, Marcus Thornton, Wesley Matthews, Chase Budinger and many more are among them. Jones is my top guy for this category, as he has the requisite scoring talent and crazy confidence to pound his way into a team's rotation. I'm a little worried about his shooting from 3, but I think he'll get more open looks than he got at USF and he'll still be a very effective driver. The lane opens up in the NBA far more than it does in college, and he'll use his excellent length to hurt people in the paint.

 

7. Derrick Favors 
Favors has a great combination of size, athleticism and hands. That alone earns him favor here. We can ignore his somewhat pedestrian numbers in college to some extent, as he'll no doubt get a lot more dunks in the pros thanks to the added space he'll have to play with (the college game is a scrum inside). Favors can play center some next season, which makes his progress even tougher to realize, though the fact that he can play both spots in the post will make him more valuable over time. If Favors can lock in as a rebounder and become a top player in that category next year, he'll shoot up my rookie report rankings.

 

8. Ekpe Udoh 
Udoh is likely a low-risk pick, provided he plays with passion and purpose (which is not a given). He should be able to defend most centers, but what makes him potentially special is that he'll likely also be able to guard perimeter-based 4s. He moves fluidly for a guy his size, so his coach can find all sorts of places for him in a rotation. I also think he's going to be a better shooter in the pros, enabling him to play in the pick-and-pop game right away.

 

9. James Anderson 
Anderson is another guy who seems ready to score at the NBA level. Like Turner, he's been an extremely productive player without tremendous physical talents, always something I look for in players. He can be utilized as a spark off the bench, where his size and length work in his favor against second-unit shooting guards.

 

10. Damion James 
James has the one talent that every NBA coach covets possibly more than any other -- a super hot motor. You can't win with five such guys if they lack skill, but you also can't win without at least a few of these guys flying around and making plays. Early in the season, when coaches are handing out rotation spots to the guys who worked the hardest in the preseason, James will no doubt get his chance to shine. Keeping his job might be another matter, but he'll get a look before a lot of the guys drafted ahead of him.

I talked to three other NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top 10s as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.

 

This group hedges closely with Hollinger's findings and even a bit closer to our Top 10 in our Top 100. Each team had an outlier that the other two teams didn't have. One team had Cole Aldrichranked in the top five. Another had Manny Harris and Gordon Hayward in their top 10.

A few things to note. The first is that, by statistical measurements at least, it looks like Greg Monroe should be going higher than No. 9 -- where we have him projected in our mock draftright now. The same holds true for Henry, who we currently have at No. 15.

The love keeps on coming for Luke Babbitt, who I believe is now seriously in the discussion at No. 9 in Utah.

One guy who isn't getting any love is Ekpe Udoh. That's because Udoh is already 23 years old and virtually all of the stat gurus agree that it's a problem. Players who are older than 22 when they are drafted have terrible track records in the NBA. That works against him in virtually every formula out there.

 

I then aggregated those lists and here's a look at what they came up with:

Metric-minded GMs' Top 10

Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs.

Rank	Player	Team
1	DeMarcus Cousins	Kentucky
2.	Derrick Favors	Georgia Tech
3.	Evan Turner	Ohio State
4.	Greg Monroe	Georgetown
5.	John Wall	Kentucky
6.	Xavier Henry	Kansas
7.	Luke Babbitt	Nevada
8.	Al-Farouq Aminu	Wake Forest
9.	Wesley Johnson	Syracuse
10.	Ed Davis	North Carolina

1	Wizards	John Wall  PG 19 years old; 6'4"; 195 lbs. Kentucky, Freshman
2	76ers	Evan Turner  SG/SF 21 years old; 6'7"; 205 lbs. Ohio State, Junior
3	Nets	Derrick Favors  PF/C 18 years old; 6'10"; 246 lbs. Georgia Tech, Freshman
4	Timberwolves	DeMarcus Cousins  C 19 years old; 6'11"; 270 lbs. Kentucky, Freshman
5	Kings	Greg Monroe  PF/C 19 years old; 6'11"; 240 lbs. Georgetown, Sophomore
6	Warriors	Wesley Johnson  SF/PF 22 years old; 6'7"; 195 lbs. Syracuse, Junior
7	Pistons	Al-Farouq Aminu  SF/PF 19 years old; 6'8"; 210 lbs. Wake Forest, Sophomore
8	Clippers	Ekpe Udoh  PF/C 23 years old; 6'10"; 240 lbs. Baylor, Junior
9	Jazz From Knicks	Cole Aldrich  C 21 years old; 6'11"; 250 lbs. Kansas, Junior
10	Pacers	Ed Davis  PF 20 years old; 6'9"; 215 lbs. North Carolina, Sophomore
11	Hornets	Patrick Patterson  PF 21 years old; 6'8"; 223 lbs. Kentucky, Junior
12	Grizzlies	Luke Babbitt  SF 20 years old; 6'7"; 215 lbs. Nevada, Sophomore
13	Raptors	Daniel Orton  C 19 years old; 6'10"; 260 lbs. Kentucky, Freshman
14	Rockets	Donatas Motiejunas  PF/C 19 years old; 7'0"; 215 lbs. Benetton Treviso, International
15	Bucks From Bulls	Paul George  SF/PF 20 years old; 6'7"; 185 lbs. Fresno State, Sophomore
16	Timberwolves From Bobcats	Xavier Henry  SG 19 years old; 6'6"; 210 lbs. Kansas, Freshman
17	Bulls From Bucks	Damion James  SF/PF 22 years old; 6'7"; 225 lbs. Texas, Senior
18	Heat	Avery Bradley  SG 19 years old; 6'3"; 180 lbs. Texas, Freshman
19	Celtics	Gordon Hayward  SF/PF 20 years old; 6'8"; 200 lbs. Butler, Sophomore
20	Spurs	Hassan Whiteside  PF/C 20 years old; 7'0"; 235 lbs. Marshall, Freshman
21	Thunder	Solomon Alabi  C 22 years old; 7'1"; 251 lbs. Florida State, Sophomore
22	Trailblazers	Kevin Seraphin  C 20 years old; 6'9"; 258 lbs. Cholet, International
23	Timberwolves From Jazz	James Anderson  SG/SF 21 years old; 6'6"; 195 lbs. Oklahoma State, Junior
24	Hawks	Stanley Robinson  SF/PF 21 years old; 6'9"; 225 lbs. Connecticut, Senior
25	Grizzlies From Nuggets	Larry Sanders  PF/C 21 years old; 6'9"; 205 lbs. VCU, Junior
26	Thunder From Suns	Eric Bledsoe  PG/SG 19 years old; 6'1"; 190 lbs. Kentucky, Freshman
27	Nets From Mavericks	Elliot Williams  SG 20 years old; 6'4"; 175 lbs. Memphis, Sophomore
28	Grizzlies From Lakers	Dominique Jones  SG 21 years old; 6'4"; 205 lbs. South Florida, Junior
29	Magic	Willie Warren  SG 20 years old; 6'4"; 200 lbs. Oklahoma, Sophomore
30	Wizards From Cavaliers	Quincy Pondexter  SF/PF 22 years old; 6'6"; 220 lbs. Washington, Senior

The early speculation is that Minnesota would be happy to see Wesley Johnson available at No. 4, but is SG/SF the biggest need? Maybe not, based on a conversation I had with GM David Kahn about the Al Jefferson-Kevin Love dynamic in the post.

"We have to have a significant third person to make it work," Kahn said. "I think on offense they played beautifully together; on defense the matchups are very problematic."

The Wolves could fill that need if either Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins is available at No. 4. Offensively, Cousins is ahead of Favors, but defense is the concern, and with Favors being the better athlete, he's the better fit.

Drafting either Favors or Cousins would also give Minnesota a potential luxury: the chance to trade Jefferson or Love in exchange for a better perimeter player than they'd find in the draft. I have spoken to a couple of teams that are hoping to steal either Love or Jefferson from Minnesota this offseason, banking on the fact that the Wolves will be frustrated by the challenges of playing together. Don't expect Kahn to just give one away, though; he knows how valuable it is to land a big who can score. "I think people around the league try to trick people, even though it rarely works," he said.

 

The NBA draft combine is now behind us, and for the first time NBA teams have credible measurement, medical and athletic info on every prospect in the draft.

This week a number of players expected to be drafted in the middle of the first round or sitting on the first-round bubble are competing in Minnesota in group workouts. From there, NBA teams will start their individual workouts in earnest.

There is still plenty of movement expected in the 29 days before the June 24 draft, but for now, here's our best stab, after talking to numerous NBA team sources, at how the draft might play out in June.

Mock Draft 3.0

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington	John Wall	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-4 Weight: 196 pounds Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: While GM Ernie Grunfeld continues to maintain that the Wizards haven't made any decisions and plan to bring in both Wall and Turner to work out, a Wizards source at the NBA draft combine acknowledged to me privately that the team will take Wall barring any unforeseen complications with his physical.

While a backcourt of Wall and Gilbert Arenas does raise some questions, it should be fine. Arenas has always been more of a 2-guard anyway, and Wall's star quality makes him the obvious choice for the Wizards to build around.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Philadelphia	Derrick Favors	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 245 Age: 18 School: Georgia Tech

Analysis: I've heard various sources make pretty forceful arguments that three different players are second on the 76ers' board: Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. At times, I've been persuaded by all three. But now it looks like the Sixes are leaning toward Favors, according to what I was told on Monday by a credible source familiar with coach Doug Collins' thinking.

Turner isn't a great fit next to Andre Iguodala. And while Cousins is a perfect fit in the middle, the team has some concerns about his on-court attitude. That leaves Favors, who has as much upside as any player in the draft.

His measurements out of Chicago are virtually identical to Dwight Howard's -- which means he should be just fine playing center. All of this can change once players undergo individual workouts and interviews, but from what I can gather, Favors has the lead if the Sixers decide to keep the pick.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Jersey	Evan Turner	Position: SG Height: 6-7 Weight: 214 Age: 21 School: Ohio State

Analysis: If Turner slides to No. 3, it's a dream scenario for New Jersey. While the Nets think very highly of Favors, they also have a chance to fill the power forward position with a free agent like Carlos Boozer or Amare Stoudemire.

The Nets want to turn this thing around quickly and Turner has the ability to step in and play from day one. He can play both the 2 and the 3, and can share time on the wing with Courtney Lee and Terrence Williams.

The team also is high on Syracuse forward Wesley Johnson. I'm told he's in the mix at the No. 3 spot, as well. But for now, Turner has the edge.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota	Wesley Johnson	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 206 Age: 22 School: Syracuse

Analysis: The Wolves are exploring possibilities of moving up in the draft. Evan Turner is their target and they have the assets to make a deal with either Philly or New Jersey.

If they keep the pick, Johnson seems like a terrific fit. He's long and athletic, rebounds from the 3 spot and can hit an open jumper. Some believe he's the next Shawn Marion.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Sacramento	Al-Farouq Aminu	Position: SF Height: 6-9 Weight: 215 Age: 19 School: Wake Forest

Analysis: It's not easy to figure out which way the Kings are going right now. They play things close to the chest, and last year we got it wrong all the way up until the day of the draft.

This year is not that much different. They aren't really hurting at any one particular position, with the possible exception of center.

Cousins could make some sense here, but for now the word (albeit a shaky one) has Aminu in the lead.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Golden State	DeMarcus Cousins	Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 292 Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: I think the Warriors will do backflips if Cousins slips this far.

He actually had a pretty good week in Chicago. A number of NBA GMs told me that based on Cousins' body of work, interviews and his measurements, they believe Cousins has as much talent as anyone in the draft, including John Wall.

Cousins has been compared to everyone from Shaq to Zach Randolph, but here's an interesting historical comparison to ponder -- could he be the next Moses Malone?

"He's huge, he scores around the basket, he's a terrific rebounder and he plays with a chip on his shoulder," one GM said. "How many 20-10 centers come along? Not very many. As far as a talent goes, he could be incredible in the NBA. The league has gotten smaller and quicker. Cousins would kill most of the big guys in our league today."

Cousins also fared well in the measurement category, comparing favorably in size to NBA centers. He measured a legit 6-foot-11 with a tremendous 7-foot-6 wingspan and 9-foot-5 standing reach. Those numbers put him on par with the likes of Dwight Howard, Greg Oden and Brook Lopez. His interviews weren't nearly as bad as everyone made them out to be, either.

While the Warriors have Andris Biedrins in the middle, he's nothing like Cousins, who can come in and be a big-time scorer right away. Teaming Cousins with with Stephen Curry and Anthony Randolph would give the Warriors a great foundation.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Detroit	Ed Davis	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 227 Age: 20 School: North Carolina

Analysis: Pistons president Joe Dumars has said he wants his team to regain the grit and toughness of past Pistons teams. But picking at No. 7 makes that a bit of a challenge. The Pistons are really high on both Cousins and Favors, but most likely they'll have to move up in the draft to get one of them. Regardless, the Pistons are taking a big man.

If they stay at No. 7, Davis makes some sense. He's got a nose for the ball and attacks the offensive glass. But he's also not the most polished player in the draft. Greg Monroe and Ekpe Udoh are other possibilities here. Apparently Cole Aldrich really isn't in the mix here.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Los Angeles Clippers	Gordon Hayward	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 211 Age: 20 School: Butler

 

Analysis: The Clippers could go in a lot of different directions with this pick and I keep getting mixed signals.

The latest tip to come out of Chicago pointed in the direction of Hayward. He's one of the most versatile guys in the draft, and while he struggled a bit this season, he can really knock down shots. Given that the team plans to feature Blake Griffin next year, that's a big deal.

With the loss of Marcus Camby, Ekpe Udoh is also a real possibility here, as is Xavier Henry.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Utah (via New York)	Greg Monroe	Position: PF Height: 6-11 Weight: 247 Age: 19 School: Georgetown

 

Analysis: The Jazz are in a position to lose Carlos Boozer this summer via free agency, but Monroe would be a solid consolation prize. He's not superathletic, but he's the most skilled big guy in the draft and would be a perfect fit in coach Jerry Sloan's half-court offense.

His measurements out of Chicago also support his cause. He measured 6-foot-11 in shoes with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a standing reach that puts him on par with most of the top big men in the draft.

But don't ignore a coming challenge by Gordon Hayward. The Jazz love him and need someone to replace free agent Kyle Korver.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Indiana	Avery Bradley	Position: SG Height: 6-3 Weight: 180 Age: 19 School: Texas

 

Analysis: The Pacers are one of the most difficult teams to peg right now. They have so many needs and are talking to everyone about moving up, moving down, or maybe even moving out of the draft, according to a number of other teams who have targeted the Pacers' pick.

The Pacers' biggest need is at point guard. A month ago, I think Bradley would've been considered a stretch here, but more and more scouts and GMs believe he could be this year's Russell Westbrook. Ekpe Udoh, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry and Gordon Hayward are also possibilities here, too.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Orleans	Cole Aldrich	Position: C Height: 6-10 Weight: 236 Age: 21 School: Kansas

Analysis: The Hornets need size and will feel that they're getting a steal if Aldrich falls this far.

Aldrich didn't measure particularly well in Chicago, standing just 6-foot-9 in socks. He makes up for much of that with a huge 7-foot-4 wingspan and a versatile game that allows him to face the basket. Aldrich could go as high as No. 5. I don't think he slides further than this.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis	Luke Babbitt	Position: SF Height: 6-9 Weight: 214 Age: 20 School: Nevada

 

Analysis: This pick may seem like a bit of a reach, but sources say the Grizzlies have locked in early on Babbitt -- and they're concerned he won't be there when they pick again at No. 25. While I have no idea who he can guard at the next level, the guy can really score. The question: Is he the next Adam Morrison or the next Chris Mullin? The Grizzlies are banking on the latter.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Toronto	Daniel Orton	Position: C Height: 6-10 Weight: 269 Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: While Orton averaged just 3 ppg and 3 rpg, he's considered a player with tremendous upside thanks to a wide body, long arms and the ability to play both in the paint and facing the basket. He measured short in Chicago (6-8¾ in socks) but has a huge wingspan (7-4¼) to make up for it.

With the Raptors on the verge of losing Chris Bosh this summer, they have to start thinking about a long-term replacement in the middle. The team would like to move Andrea Bargnani to the 4 and needs a tough rebounder and shot-blocker in the middle. Ekpe Udoh, Hassan Whiteside and Solomon Alabi will also get long looks here.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Houston	Ekpe Udoh	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 237 Age: 22 School: Baylor

 

Analysis: Udoh is the type of long, shot-blocking forward who should find a comfortable home in Houston. While he's a bit older than the rest of the class and doesn't have elite athleticism, he's still improving -- one of the few older players in the draft with any real upside left. Patrick Patterson and Hassan Whiteside are other possibilities here.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Milwaukee (via Chicago)	Xavier Henry	Position: SG Height: 6-7 Weight: 210 Age: 19 School: Kansas

 

Analysis: Henry looked good at the NBA draft combine in the drills, where he shot the lights out. It also didn't hurt that he ended up ranking as the sixth-best player in the draft in John Hollinger's Draft Rater.

Teams as high up as the Clippers, Jazz and Pacers are looking at him closely. At this point, if Gordon Hayward goes higher, I don't see Henry slipping past the Bucks, who can use him at both the 2 and the 3. With John Salmons looking to opt out, they're going to need to add some more versatility to the wing position.

James Anderson and Patrick Patterson are other possibilities with this pick.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota (via Charlotte)	Paul George	Position: SF Height: 6-9 Weight: 214 Age: 20 School: Fresno State

 

Analysis: After Whiteside, George is one of the biggest upside players in the draft. He didn't dominate at Fresno State, but as a 6-9 2-guard who can really shoot the basketball, he draws comparisons to everyone from Joe Johnson to Wilson Chandler to Trevor Ariza.

The Wolves need shooting and size in their backcourt, so he should be the perfect fit. Pair him with Wesley Johnson or Evan Turner and the Wolves just got a lot better.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Chicago (via Milwaukee)	James Anderson	Position: SG Height: 6-6 Weight: 210 Age: 21 School: Oklahoma State

 

 

Analysis: Anderson was one of the best scorers in college basketball and could be a very good fit in the Bulls' backcourt. His ability to stretch the defense and attack the basket would make him a nice complement to Derrick Rose.

Even if the team ends up landing LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, look for Anderson to be the guy. As far as NBA ready players go, there are few better in this draft. I'd expect him to play the same sort of role James Harden did in OKC last season.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Miami	Eric Bledsoe	Position: PG Height: 6-2 Weight: 192 Age: 20 School: Kentucky

 

Analysis: Bledsoe is a tough, Pat Riley type of player and could be a long-term upgrade from the Mario Chalmers-Carlos Arroyo duo at point guard.

Bledsoe was one of the players who really helped himself at the draft combine. Playing outside of John Wall's shadow, he often looked like the best guard on the floor. Physically, he's ready for the NBA right now. But he still needs more experience running the point. Long term, Bledsoe could pay off.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Boston	Solomon Alabi	Position: C Height: 7-1 Weight: 237 Age: 22 School: Florida State

 

Analysis: Alabi may seem like a bit of a reach to some, but I was impressed with the feedback I received from NBA scouts and GMs after the combine. Not only did he measure as the biggest player in the draft, but he showed a nice skills game and a terrific motor in the drills.

Some scouts are comparing him to Dikembe Mutombo. I don't think Alabi has the same sort of rebounding and shot blocking ability, but he does have a similar demeanor and presence on the court.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	San Antonio	Damion James	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 227 Age: 22 School: Texas

 

Analysis: James is one of the more underrated players in the draft. Very few players have his combination of athleticism and motor.

He doesn't have a position on offense, but he can defend multiple positions on the floor. He should be able to step in right away with the Spurs' veterans and provide meaningful minutes

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Oklahoma City	Donatas Motiejunas	Position: PF Height: 7-0 Weight: 220 Age: 19 Country: Lithuania

Analysis: If Motiejunas believes he'll slip this far, he most likely will withdraw from the draft. But he'd be a great long-term pickup for the Thunder if they can get him this low.

He's a very skilled forward who has some Pau Gasol and Toni Kukoc in his game. He is playing at a high level in Europe but needs to get stronger.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Portland	Patrick Patterson	Position: PF Height: 6-8 Weight: 245 Age: 21 School: Kentucky

 

Analysis: Patterson would be a steal for the Blazers if he slips this low. While Patterson does little to wow you, he's the type of unselfish, productive big man that will fit in well with the team Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has put together.

He measured well in Chicago and was apparently one of the best interviewees there, so he could find himself moving back up into the late lottery. But I'm still struggling to find him a home.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota (via Utah)	Kevin Seraphin	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 258 Age: 20 Country: France

 

Analysis: With their third pick of this draft, you can expect the Wolves to stash a player overseas. Seraphin hasn't really produced big numbers in France, but he has Serge Ibaka-like physical upside.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Atlanta	Hassan Whiteside	Position: C Height: 7-0 Weight: 227 Age: 20 School: Marshall

 

Analysis: How can a guy who just measured with a freakish 7-foot-7 wingspan slip this far? The word out of Chicago was that the interviews didn't go so well. And as I wrote in my draft combinewrap-up blog post, I had the chance to sit down with Whiteside and I can understand why.

Whiteside isn't a bad kid, but he's a very naïve one at this point in a way that reminds me a bit of Tyrus Thomas. Eventually some team will decide the talent is too much to pass on. But I think he did some damage to his stock last week. He can certainly make up for that in workouts ... but he's just created a bigger mountain to climb.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis (via Denver)	Larry Sanders	Position: SF Height: 6-11 Weight: 222 Age: 21 School: Va. Commonwealth

Analysis: If the Grizzlies go a little safe with their first pick, they can swing for the fences with Sanders. With a freakish wingspan and terrific athleticism, Sanders could add a different look to the Grizzlies' front court.

Both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are big bodies, but neither player can run the floor and do the things Sanders can do.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Oklahoma City (via Phoenix)	Craig Brackins	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 229 Age: 22 School: Iowa State

Analysis: Brackins would be a good pick for the Thunder. He's a high-character guy who can score inside and outside and will play hard. Right now Nenad Krstic is the only guy who can really get it done in the post. Brackins could be a nice long-term fit.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Jersey (via Dallas)	Keith Gallon	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 302 Age: 19 School: Oklahoma

 

 

Analysis:We've had Terrico White pegged here for a couple of weeks and he could still be the pick. But if the Nets get their hands on Evan Turner at No. 3, then they probably focus on a big with their other pick.

Gallon is one of the best-shooting big men in the draft. If he can get in better shape, he's a talent at this spot in the draft.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis (via L.A. Lakers)	Quincy Pondexter	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 220 Age: 22 School: Washington

 

Analysis: Pondexter was one of the best seniors in the country. He is an elite athlete and proved this season that he can really score. He's a jump shot away from being a star. Think the next Desmond Mason.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Orlando	Willie Warren	Position: PG Height: 6-4 Weight: 210 Age: 20 School: Oklahoma

 

Analysis: At the beginning of the season, Warren was considered a potential top-10 pick. However, a poor season and some injuries, plus some bad chemistry with his coach, really hurt his stock.

But he is a steal here and the type of versatile guard who could make an impact for the Magic.

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington (via Cleveland)	Jarvis Varnado	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 210 Age: 22 School: Mississippi State

Analysis: Varnado may not be much to look at on the offensive end, but on the defensive end, he's a beast combining a great motor, long arms and elite athleticism. Once he gets stronger, I could see him as a Chris Andersen-type of defender.

 

The lottery and Chicago combine are behind us, and Chad Ford has already produced two mock drafts. Chad's work deals with figuring out what teams are going to do, but I'm more interested in what they should do. With that in mind, let's look at the lottery from two perspectives -- need and value.

No. 1 Washington Wizards

Need: The Wiz need help everywhere. Their best player is Gilbert Arenas, but he'll be on the trading block every day for the rest of his contract, so there's no worry about his meshing with whomever Washington takes. And that person pretty simply has to be the best player from this class over the next five-plus years, not the best guy today. That kind of superstar should help create a new identity and sell tickets. In essence, with this pick, need equals value.

Value: The best prospect in this class, when character, maturity and talent are all mixed in, is clearly John Wall. If DeMarcus Cousins had Wall's head and polish, he'd be in the mix here. But Cousins showed up fat in Chicago, clinching the deal for Wall. The fact that Wall seems ready to take on the burdens of being a superstar, loves to pass and is a competitive jet -- meaning he'll be fun to play with -- is an added bonus.

 

No. 2 Philadelphia 76ers

Need: The Sixers were in the bottom third of the NBA in almost every team statistic. They are a poor shooting, poor defending, poor rebounding and poor passing team. That said, they have to love Jrue Holiday as a building block at a vital position -- point guard. The rest of the roster is muddled. Andre Iguodala is the best player, but just an average shooter; Elton Brand isn't living up to his contract; and Thaddeus Young is trapped between the two forward positions. Based on need, the Sixers should grab Cousins, Derrick Favors or Evan Turner, in that order.

Value: The Cousins/Turner/Favors decision here is one of the more interesting stories of the draft. Turner is the most NBA-ready player in the class, and his versatility would help him fit on this team (and pretty much every other). But there is a fair concern that he's too similar to Iggy as an all-around talent but not a shooting threat. That said, a trio of Iguodala, Holiday and Turner would excel defensively and could lead a fast team (especially with Young and Marreese Speights up front). There's actually a stronger argument for Favors. He's just 18, and in time, experts think he could end up being the second-best player in this class. Turner might help Philly win more games immediately, but a Sixers team featuring Holiday and Favors will almost assuredly end up with a top-five pick against next season. Much in the way Oklahoma City built its roster with additional lottery picks, I like the way the point guard/post combo sets up Philly's future by grabbing Favors here. Cousins, though, is the top value pick, as the best available player with the brightest upside, if he can be mentored.

 

No. 3 New Jersey Nets

Need: The Nets couldn't have been more dysfunctional last season, which masks a surprising fact: This team has talent. Brook Lopez has potential franchise talent at the 5, Terrence Williamswill be a strong rotation player and Courtney Lee is a proven starter as a fourth/fifth option.Devin Harris should rebound from a poor season and even Yi Jianlian showed signs of life. Granted, this team still could use talent anywhere, but whomever the Nets get at No. 3 can't expect to start right away. Based on need, I'd suggest that Favors is the slight favorite.

Value: Either Turner or Favors will be here. Chad has the Nets grabbing Favors, and he'll have every opportunity to start alongside Lopez, which would really help the Nets' interior D and form a nice rotation with Yi in the mix. That said, I like Turner here better because he'll be ready to play right away, which is an added bonus because the Nets will be chasing free agents in July. Plus, his playmaking skills are a good fit next to Harris, who prefers to score. With Turner, and almost any solid free agent, the Nets should be the league's most improved team.

 

No. 4 Minnesota Timberwolves

Need: The Wolves have three main holes to fill: They need an organizing force at point guard, a wing scorer and some help in the paint defensively. Ricky Rubio is their point guard of the future, unless he is moved for someone similar (and then Jonny Flynn becomes a serious Sixth Man Award candidate). Corey Brewer improved dramatically in his third season, but will never be a big-time scorer (especially when he's playing at the 2). And Darko Milicic showed flashes of starter talent after he arrived, but he's a long way from a sure thing. The Wolves would love Turner, who's a perfect match for Brewer, but they would settle for Wesley Johnson.

Value: Chad is going with Johnson currently, but I don't love his upside or his long-term prospects here. This is where the Chicago camp hurts Cousins. If he had shown up in great shape and with added polish, he'd be a lock for this spot, even if it's not a great fit. But he didn't, and now it's a scramble. Johnson would help the Wolves, but they'd still need a high-scoring wing. If they acquire one, Brewer and Johnson would battle it out at the 3, and Brewer has three years of experience and a better defensive future. Johnson would be an excellent backup, but that's a high price to pay for the No. 4 pick. Al-Farouq Aminu gets into the equation, as his ability to score around the basket gets utilized well in the triangle. His upside suggests more value here, so he'll have his chances at this spot.

 

No. 5 Sacramento Kings

Need: At season's end, the Kings' two best players were in their backcourt. They have two lottery guys in their frontcourt, and two late first-round picks at the small forward spot. It's fair to say they could use help at any of those three spots, but more likely their most pressing need is a front-line scorer who can help shore up a very bad defensive team. Neither Spencer Hawesnor Jason Thompson has evolved into anything more than a rotation big, at best. Without a doubt, Cousins is the perfect fit here. He's what they need on offense and the boards.

Value: Getting Cousins at No. 5, as Chad currently predicts, looks like it's a can't-miss proposition for the Kings. He's probably the second-best prospect in this draft, even with his immaturity issues and his overweight frame. Coach Paul Westphal is a friendly guy who has the ability to reach a player like Cousins. The Kings are well aware of the red flags surrounding Cousins, and might look at Aminu to shore up their small forward spot. Neither Omri Casspi norDonte Greene has earned a guaranteed starting spot there going forward, and Aminu would give them a scorer, an athlete, and more importantly, a rebounder and a defender. Both guys have the upside to make them value picks at this spot, but Cousins gets a big edge in that department. It's possible that he could be a Day 1 starter and be the second consecutive ROY in Sacramento.

Sure, the conference finals are ongoing -- well, at least for a little while longer. For four of the league's teams, that's enough entertainment.

But for the other 26, it's time to engage in one of our nation's favorite pastimes. Ruminating over the draft has at times become more compelling entertainment than the games themselves, at least if you believe the stats on page views, and it's high time I indulged that hobby amongst the readership.

Actually, the fans aren't the only ones obsessed by this game. Over the next month, teams and analysts will spend a great many hours poking, prodding and otherwise evaluating roughly a hundred players to winnow their lists down to the one or two that most franchises will end up selecting on draft day (which, by the way, is June 24 -- just 34 shopping days left).

That process picked up speed this week with the lottery on Tuesday and the draft combine in Chicago on Thursday and Friday, and now it's time for me to offer my $0.02 in the form of statistical analysis of all the draft's college entrants.

As longtime readers will know, I've cooked up my Draft Rater the past few years to present a methodical, objective look at how players' collegiate achievements tend to translate to the pro game. It's based on regression analysis that compares college performance using 27 different variables, from the obvious (age, height, likely pro position) to the obscure (say, 3-point attempts per field goal attempt). By looking at what talents have led to success at the pro level, we can figure out some things about what current collegiate draft prospects will be able to do in the NBA.

My original motivation was the fact that the actual NBA draft has produced so many busts in the top 10. While the Draft Rater has also uncorked a few (you can see the history through 2008here and last year's list here), the overall results have have been strong.

The Draft Rater has yet to miss a lottery pick who became an All-Star in its top 12 collegians list -- although that string may end in another year or two thanks to a miserable 2008 performance (Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez both were overlooked that year). And if it's blown a couple of picks, look at the actual draft and you'll find even more mistakes by the pro teams themselves.

On the other hand, the Draft Rater has picked out five All-Stars that the pros missed among the first 12 collegians -- Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, Josh Howard, and David West. No misses, five additions. I like that ratio.

Additionally, this is but one tool among many. I'm sure one could greatly improve on the Rater's performance by using it as a starting point and adding other known variables to the mix. This system rates "pro potential," which sometimes differs substantially from "pro performance." As I mentioned a year ago, the fact that Michael Sweetney and Shawne Williams both rated highly coming out of school isn't necessarily a mistake -- they failed in the NBA not from a lack of talent, but for other reasons. Part of good scouting is knowing which players are committed to this enterprise for the long haul, and we can't tell that from their college stats.

The Draft Rater has one other weak spot: It thrives on information and struggles when it lacks enough. As a result, players who leave school after just one season give it problems. Not only are they the youngest players, and thus the ones we're projecting farthest into the future, but what makes it even worse is that we have only one season of data to evaluate. That's the reason that one-and-done players have historically had the greatest error margin, which introduces an added level of uncertainty this season because three of the top five prospects are leaving school after one year.

One other note before we start: The Draft Rater produces a projection of a player's "peak" PER in Years 4-5, something that may not be apparent from looking at the rather underwhelming numbers next to each name. That's mostly a problem of the scarcity of NBA stars -- since the vast majority of players drafted will settle into the low teens in PER as NBA players, regardless of how good their college stats are, that's where the projections land for nearly all of them. In other words, there are very few sure things, even at the top of the draft.

The good news is that when it does spit out a "19.01" as it did for Kevin Durant in 2007, it's clear you have a sure thing.

There's no Durant in this year's crop, but there is one prospect who rates as an A-list talent, a freshman from the University of Kentucky named...

DeMarcus Cousins.

You were expecting somebody else?

Cousins has the fifth-highest rating in the Draft Rater's nine seasons evaluated. (The Draft Rater goes back to 2002, as college data from before that year is too spotty to use.)

Based on that, the outlook for Cousins is quite positive. Of the eight previous players from 2002 to 2008 to rate 15.0 or higher, four became superstars: Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul. Of the other four, three have been very productive starters -- Rudy Gay,Luol Deng, and Drew Gooden -- and one became, well, Mike Conley. We had another three last year, and from that trio one was awesome (Tyreke Evans), one was good (Ty Lawson) and one didn't play a game (Blake Griffin).

Cousins won't be the first pick because of questions about his character and coachability, and those are legitimate concerns. But there's no doubting his elite talent level.

Cousins' Kentucky teammate, John Wall, ranks third (see table below), just after Ohio State guard Evan Turner. Wall likely will be the first overall pick, and that's defensible -- his rating is essentially the same as Turner's, and Cousins' issues make him an iffy sell as a franchise centerpiece.

I've shown the top 12 as a group, which I like to do because, as I noted above, the Draft Rater rarely misses on star talent in its top 12 names. As you can see, the top of the list is pretty much chalk -- the first nine names all are certain first-rounders and all but Henry are likely to land in the lottery.

Where it gets interesting is with the last three, all of whom are likely second-round picks. We'll see if there's a surprise in the bunch or if conventional wisdom prevails. But I swear there was no pro-UVa bias involved in Sylven Landesberg's surprising rank. Rather, the Draft Rater just liked him and Greivis Vasquez because they had such solid ballhandling numbers at the wing positions.

Draft Rater's top 12

1

Rank	Player	Team	Projected PER
1	DeMarcus Cousins	Kentucky	16.14
2.	Evan Turner	Ohio State	14.79
3.	John Wall	Kentucky	14.68
4.	Greg Monroe	Georgetown	14.39
5.	Derrick Favors	Georgia Tech	13.98
6.	Xavier Henry	Kansas	13.52
7.	Luke Babbitt	Nevada	13.35
8.	Al-Farouq Aminu	Wake Forest	13.30
9.	Wes Johnson	Syracuse	13.03
10.	Greivis Vasquez	Maryland	12.97
11.	Sylven Landesberg	Virginia	12.52
12.	Omar Samhan	Saint Mary's	12.47

 

Moving down the list, the next dozen players are largely the usual suspects (see chart below).Damion James, Daniel Orton, James Anderson, Paul George, Gordon Hayward and Eric Bledsoeare likely to hear their names called somewhere between 10th and 25th, so their presence in this group shouldn't shock anybody.

Jeff Foote, on the other hand ... now that's a name that will shock people, just as soon as they figure out who the heck he is. The 7-footer for Cornell shot 62.5 percent his senior year and had deceptively strong rebound and block totals for a slow-paced team. He may face more difficulty outside the Lilliputian Ivy League -- my analysis is schedule-adjusted, but I'm open to the idea that it may imperfectly accommodate such glaring size differences. Nonetheless, he's at least a name worth storing away as a late second-round sleeper.

A couple of likely early-to-mid second-rounders cracked the list (Manny Harris, Darington Hobsonand Jordan Crawford), while two other surprises are Marqus Blakely and Luke Harangody. Blakely, an energetic but undersized power forward from Vermont, may go undrafted, while scouts almost unanimously dislike Harangody for his lack of length and defensive ability -- despite his undeniably impressive production at Notre Dame.

 

Draft Rater's first-round talents

Rank	Player	Team	Projected PER
13.	Damion James	Texas	12.44
14.	Daniel Orton	Kentucky	12.15
15.	James Anderson	Oklahoma State	11.98
16.	Paul George	Fresno State	11.87
17.	Gordon Hayward	Butler	11.87
18.	Manny Harris	Michigan	11.80
19.	Jeff Foote	Cornell	11.71
20.	Darington Hobson	New Mexico	11.69
21.	Eric Bledsoe	Kentucky	11.66
22.	Marqus Blakely	Vermont	11.58
23.	Luke Harangody	Notre Dame	11.37
24.	Jordan Crawford	Xavier	11.32

 

Once we get past the No. 24 collegian, and allowing for several foreign players likely to be selected in the late first and early second round, we're basically looking at role players and fringe players in Round 2, and the next 11 players typify the remains of the day (see chart below). Butler won't be taken 25th since he blew out his knee at the end of West Virginia's season, but the others landed roughly in the neighborhood most expect.

Draft Rater's late first-rounders and early second-rounders

Rank	Player	Team	Projected PER
25.	Da'Sean Butler	West Virginia	11.26
26.	Jon Scheyer	Duke	11.20
27.	Devin Ebanks	West Virginia	11.16
28.	Tiny Gallon	Oklahoma	11.13
29.	Quincy Pondexter	Washington	11.08
30.	Larry Sanders	VCU	11.07
31.	Armon Johnson	Nevada	10.98
32.	Brian Zoubek	Duke	10.96
33.	Aubrey Coleman	Houston	10.91
34.	Jeremy Lin	Harvard	10.87
35.	Mikhail Torrance	Alabama	10.84

 

So we're all set here -- well, except for one thing.

Among those who haven't shown up on the list yet are several likely first-rounders, especially frontcourt players. There are several project-type big men in this draft that the Draft Rater isn't terribly excited about -- most fit the description of "long, athletic guys who blocked shots and got scouts excited but didn't do terribly much else." Some collegians of this type turn into players -- for instance, two years ago the Draft Rater hated Anthony Randolph, but he's become a legit starter in Golden State and still has upside to explore.

Nonetheless, history says scouts might be coloring in a few too many lines when they're projecting the future for Cole Aldrich, Ekpe Udoh, Hassan Whiteside and Ed Davis. It's possible that all four could go in the lottery, but the Draft Rater says their teams will regret it (see chart below). Three other possible first-round big men, Patrick Patterson, Craig Brackins and Solomon Alabi, don't engender warm feelings from Draft Rater either.

A couple of highly touted guards, Avery Bradley and Willie Warren, also failed to impress. Bradley can at least take solace in his one-and-done status -- the error rate has been higher for those players. And as a defensive specialist, his PER might not matter much anyway.

Draft Rater's duds -- prominent names ranked outside top 35 collegians

Rank	Player	Team	Projected PER
36	Cole Aldrich	Kansas	10.83
37	Patrick Patterson	Kentucky	10.79
40	Willie Warren	Oklahoma	10.71
45	Avery Bradley	Texas	10.42
50	Ekpe Udoh	Baylor	10.03
54	Ed Davis	North Carolina	9.88
31	Armon Johnson	Nevada	10.98
60	Terrico White	Mississippi	9.68
62	Hassan Whiteside	Marshall	9.65
65	Craig Brackins	Iowa State	9.56
68	Solomon Alabi	Florida State	9.52

 

So there you have it: my list of the players who have the talent necessary to thrive at the next level -- and those who might not.

I share many of the concerns about Cousins that have been expressed elsewhere, but I also just had a thought:

How many current NBA centers would you rather have them Cousins?

Without question group (of one):  Dwight Howard

Only because they're a known quantity not because upside is greater:  Lopez and Bynum (can't stay healthy)

Solid centers, but would you trade Cousins for them?:  Marc Gasol, Kaman, Bogut (nasty injury), Yao (durability concerns), Oden (can't stay healthy), Noah (limited offensively), David Lee (solid, but a product of D'Antoni system?), Hoford (undersized), Hibbert, Bargnani, Okafor, Thabeet (I'd certainly rather have Cousins than the #2 from last year).

Great, but past their prime:  Duncan, Shaq, Jermaine O'Neal, Rasheed.

Assuming he measures out at 6'11" with the reported 7'6" wingspan, Cousins may be the only player in the draft that has top 5 value at his position.   Are Turner and Favors top 5 value at their position?  I love Wall, but not sure Paul, Deron, Rondo, Rose, or Evans gets traded for him.  And there are certainly a handful of other very solid PGs (Westbrook, Curry, Jennings, Jameer etc).  There are certainly 5-10 SFs with greater value than Wes Johnson. 

Based on current lottery odds.  I would think we'd take Anderson or Alabi over Hayward with Charlotte pick.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Jersey	John Wall	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-4 Weight: 185 pounds Age: 19 School: Kentucky

 

 

Analysis: This is a no-brainer for the Nets if they are lucky enough to land the No. 1 pick. Some look at starting point guard Devin Harris and wonder whether New Jersey should select Evan Turner instead.

 

 

The Nets don't.

 

 

Although they like Harris, they love Wall. The Kentucky freshman is the type of young potential superstar who could lure a big-time free agent to Jersey this summer.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota	Evan Turner	Position: SG Height: 6-7 Weight: 205 Age: 21 School: Ohio State

 

 

Analysis: Turner would be a terrific fit for the Wolves, who need a versatile swingman who can play multiple positions on the floor. Turner's ability to come in and contribute from day one could help Minnesota immensely next season.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Sacramento	Derrick Favors	Position: PF Height: 6-9 Weight: 215 Age: 18 College: Georgia Tech

 

Analysis: The Kings might be terrible at the moment, but a core of Tyreke Evans and Favors would make them very dangerous in the future. Favors didn't have a huge freshman season at Georgia Tech, but he has the potential to be the next Antonio McDyess.

 

 

While it's clear the Kings like both Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, neither has the upside of Favors.

 

 

 

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Golden State	DeMarcus Cousins	Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 260 Age: 19 School: Kentucky

 

 

Analysis: It figures that Cousins would land in Golden State. The Warriors are filled with young talent, but they're also the most dysfunctional team in the league. Enter Cousins, who was the most talented big man in college basketball, but also the most unstable. It's a match made in heaven.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington	Wesley Johnson	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 198 Age: 22 School: Syracuse

 

 

Analysis: The Wizards aren't desperate for a small forward, but they are desperate for some star power after gutting the roster this winter. Johnson's versatility and upside would be too much to pass up here.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Philadelphia	Cole Aldrich	Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 245 Age: 21 School: Kansas

 

 

Analysis: Aldrich might never be a star, but he's a solid big man who rebounds, blocks shots, and scores from inside and out. With only one more season left on Samuel Dalembert's contract, Aldrich would provide some great insurance.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Detroit	Ed Davis	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 215 Age: 20 College: North Carolina

 

 

Analysis: The Pistons are high on Al-Farouq Aminu, but the last thing they need is another tweener after adding Austin Daye and Charlie Villanueva last summer. Davis didn't dominate as a sophomore, but he's an athletic big man who's active on the boards. The Pistons desperately need a player like that.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Los Angeles Clippers	Al-Farouq Aminu	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 205 Age: 19 School:Wake Forest

 

 

Analysis: Aminu is one of the best athletes in the draft. The question is, what position does he play? If he continues to refine his perimeter game, he'd be a great fit next to Blake Griffin in the Clippers' frontcourt.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Utah (via New York)	Greg Monroe	Position: PF Height: 6-11 Weight: 250 Age: 19 School: Georgetown

 

 

Analysis: The Jazz are in a position to lose Carlos Boozer this summer via free agency, but Monroe would be a solid consolation prize. He's not super athletic, but he's the most skilled big guy in the draft and he would be a perfect fit in Jerry Sloan's half-court offense.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Indiana	Ekpe Udoh	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 240 Age: 22 School: Baylor

 

 

Analysis: Barring a lottery miracle, the Pacers are screwed. A month ago, they were looking at possibly drafting No. 4 and adding a building block next to Danny Granger. But a late-season run dropped them all the way to 10th and ended any realistic chance they'll get a star.

 

 

Udoh, however, would fit a need as an athletic shot-blocker who can run the floor.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Orleans	Daniel Orton	Position: C Height: 6-10 Weight: 260 Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: Orton barely made a dent in the box score for Kentucky, but NBA scouts are convinced he could be a really good NBA center. He is strong and physical, and can dominate on the defensive end.

 

 

He needs to improve his offense, but if he does, he could be a star down the road. The Hornets were very thin up front all season. Orton also would give them some insurance in the event Emeka Okafor breaks down.

 

 

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis	Patrick Patterson	Position: PF Height: 6-8 Weight: 245 Age: 21 School: Kentucky

 

 

Analysis: The Grizzlies are trying to find a way to eke back into the playoffs. After he drafted a "future" guy in Hasheem Thabeet in 2009, expect GM Chris Wallace to go with a more veteran, proven college player this year.

 

 

Patterson doesn't wow you with anything he does, but he's solid in virtually every area. Most importantly for the Grizzlies, he would be ready to come in and contribute on day one.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Toronto	Hassan Whiteside	Position: C Height: 6-11 Weight: 225 Age: 20 School: Marshall

 

 

Analysis: Whiteside has as much upside as anyone in the draft not named Wall or Favors. He's a super-long, lanky shot-blocker who nearly had four triple-doubles this season in points, rebounds and blocked shots.

 

 

With the Raptors in danger of losing Chris Bosh this summer, expect Toronto to swing for the fences to help fans forget Bosh if he bolts.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Houston	Donatas Motiejunas	Position: PF Height: 7-0 Weight: 220 Age: 19 Country: Lithuania

 

 

Analysis: The Rockets have a habit of drafting value, and this low in the draft, Motiejunas would be a good get. He'll probably spend another year in Italy honing his skills and getting stronger, but when he does get to the NBA, he has the makings of a player.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Milwaukee (via Chicago)	Xavier Henry	Position: SG Height: 6-7 Weight: 220 Age: 19 School: Kansas

 

 

Analysis: John Salmons might end up opting out of his contract, and the Bucks would love to put another blue-chip prospect in the backcourt with Brandon Jennings.

 

 

Henry already has an NBA body and can shoot the lights out. He's a little one-dimensional, but he could step in and immediately fill a role for Milwaukee.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota (via Charlotte)	Gordon Hayward	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 200 Age: 20 School: Butler

 

 

Analysis: The Wolves could really use some consistent shooters who could stretch the defense. Adding Evan Turner won't help much in that regard, but Hayward could. While he struggled with his shot this past season, he's generally considered a lights-out shooter.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Chicago (via Milwaukee)	James Anderson	Position: SG Height: 6-6 Weight: 195 Age: 21 School: Oklahoma State

 

 

Analysis: Anderson was one of the best scorers in college basketball and could be a very good fit in the Bulls' backcourt. His ability to stretch the defense and attack the basket should make him a nice complement to Derrick Rose.

 

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Miami	Eric Bledsoe	Position: PG Height: 6-1 Weight: 190 Age: 20 School: Kentucky

 

 

Analysis: Bledsoe is a tough, Pat Riley type of player and could be a long-term upgrade from the Mario Chalmers-Carlos Arroyo duo at point guard.

 

 

Physically, he's ready for the NBA right now. But he still needs more game-time experience running the point. Long term, Bledsoe could pay off.

 

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Boston	Luke Babbitt	Position: SF Height: 6-9 Weight: 220 Age: 20 School: Nevada

 

 

Analysis: The Grizzlies are hoping Babbitt falls a few more spots in the draft, but I think the Celtics will beat them to the punch. Babbitt is an excellent scorer both inside and out, and he'll rebound. Most importantly, he could step in right away for the Celtics.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Oklahoma City	Solomon Alabi	Position: C Height: 7-1 Weight: 245 Age: 22 School: Florida State

 

 

Analysis: The Thunder continue to lack a legitimate low-post threat. They drafted B.J. Mullens to be that guy last year, but he's still a work in progress. Alabi will be, too, but at this point in the draft, he has too much size and upside to pass on.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	San Antonio	Damion James	Position: SF Height: 6-8 Weight: 224 Age: 22 School: Texas

 

 

Analysis: James might be one of the more underrated players in the draft. Very few players have his combination of athleticism and motor. He doesn't have a position on offense, but he's a Spurs type of player all the way.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Portland	Kenneth Faried	Position: PF Height: 6-8 Weight: 215 Age: 20 School:Morehead State

 

 

Analysis: If there's one stat that seems to translate from college to the pros, it's rebounding. Faried was the NCAA's leading rebounder this past season, pulling down 13 per game.

 

 

He is a bit undersized but makes up for it with toughness and explosive athleticism. He could be the draft's biggest sleeper.

 

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Minnesota (via Utah)	Kevin Seraphin	Position: PF Height: 6-10 Weight: 258 Age: 20 Country: France

 

 

Analysis: With their third pick of this draft, you can expect the Wolves to stash a player overseas. Seraphin hasn't really produced big numbers in France, but he's got Serge Ibaka-like physical upside.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Atlanta	Quincy Pondexter	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 220 Age: 22 School: Washington

 

 

Analysis: Pondexter was one of the best seniors in the country. He is an elite athlete and proved this season that he can really score. He's a jump shot away from being a star. Think the next Desmond Mason.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis (via Denver)	Avery Bradley	Position: SG Height: 6-3 Weight: 180 Age: 19 School: Texas

 

 

Analysis: Bradley is tough to peg. A few teams are looking at him in the late lottery. But if he slides a bit, don't expect him to slip much farther than here. Bradley's defensive abilities alone make him a lock for the pros. If he can find a position on offense, he could be a star.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Oklahoma City (via Phoenix)	Devin Ebanks	Position: SF Height: 6-9 Weight: 205 Age: 20 School: West Virginia

 

 

Analysis: Ebanks has lottery talent. Defensively, he can do it all with his long wingspan and above-average mobility for his size. But until he develops a reliable jump shot, he remains a work in progress.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Jersey (via Dallas)	Terrico White	Position: SG Height: 6-5 Weight: 211 Age: 20 School: Mississippi

 

 

Analysis: White is an elite athlete who, when he's on, is one of the best guards in the country. The problem is, White has a tendency to disappear in games. If the Nets can get him to play with some consistency, he would be a steal here.

 

 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis (via L.A. Lakers)	Paul George	Position: SF Height: 6-7 Weight: 185 Age: 20 School: Fresno State

 

 

Analysis: George suffers from the same issues as White. Great athlete. Very versatile. Doesn't always play hard. With Rudy Gay possibly bolting via free agency, he could be a potential long-term replacement.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Orlando	Willie Warren	Position: PG Height: 6-4 Weight: 210 Age: 20 School: Oklahoma

 

 

Analysis: Warren was considered a potential top-10 pick at the beginning of the season. However, a poor season, combined with some injuries and some bad chemistry with his coach, really hurt his stock.

 

 

But Warren is a steal here and the type of versatile guard who could make an impact for the Magic.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington (via Cleveland)	Larry Sanders	Position: SF Height: 6-10 Weight: 220 Age: 21 School: Va. Commonwealth

The Utah Jazz have agreed to trade Ronnie Brewer to the Memphis Grizzlies for a protected 2010 first-round pick, a source close to the situation told ESPN.com on Thursday.

The deal gives the Grizzlies yet another athletic swingman and allows the Jazz to save money.

Utah had a bit of a logjam at Brewer's position. His $2.7 million salary was essentially double that because the Jazz are over the luxury-tax threshold.

 

Isn't this a trade we should have done?  I realize Ronnie is having a down year, but folks on this site have long talked about Brewer as a potential "poor man's" Rudy Gay.  I would think we'd give Utah their pick back for him.

Part of Rambis' quote in Strib about Love and Al's ability to play together.  Still early, but it doesn't sound like he's convinced an elite team can start them both.

"They'll get better together as time goes by," Wolves coach Kurt Rambis said, "but when you compete against some of the elite teams, basically they're both power forwards. And you could argue they're on the small side of power forwards. They don't have the height or the length or athleticism that a lot of power forwards have in this league."

To compensate, Rambis said the Wolves have to pass the ball and execute their offense.

"That's when we're at our best and lack of size doesn't seem to hurt us," he said. "It shows, and becomes glaring, when longer teams can reach right over the top of us to secure defensive rebounds. They don't even really have to jump. They just can get their hands on the ball. That's something our team will have to learn, how to block out."

Fake Trade 1a: Gallinari, Curry and $3 million to Minnesota for the Mark Blount/Brian Cardinal ECs. Basically, Minnesota would be paying $10 million next year to get Gallinari for 2011, 2012 and 2013. Total financial commitment: $23 million. Isn't a lottery pick and potential 50-40-90 percentage guy worth $23 million over three years (just $9 million for the last two), especially for a team stupidly playing the "we're waiting for Ricky Rubio, so tuck yourself in and enjoy three years of losing and misery!" card? Of course.

 

 

Taking on Curry's contract for next year would be a tough pill to swallow, but if the rumors that we won't be making a big splash in the FA market next summer are correct than I'd pull the trigger on this (although it sounds like Gallo is the one untouchable in NY).  This nets us a rising star at SF who can spread the floor and pass with the best of them.  If Knicks are this desperate to move Curry,  maybe we can squeeze a 2011 or 2012 protected first rounder from them.

I have admittedly not watched enough Heat games to determine if Beasley could play SF, but I do know he has range on his jumper.  Is he quick enough to defend SFs? 

Miami is clearly unhappy with him, but he is a major talent (I believe 4th in rookie PER last year) and Heat clearly need a PG for the future.  Also, a bit more of a known quantity having played a season in NBA.  Averaged 14/5 last year.

So...would you guys trade Rubio for Beasley?

I think Kahn should make an aggressive play for Rudy Fernandez.  Rubio and Fernandez were an electric backcourt on Spanish National team and it would certainly help Rubio's transition to MN and NBA.  Perhaps more importantly, I think he'd a fantastic future SG for us.

I was over at our sister site, Blazer's Edge, and there is speculation that they'll have to trade Fernandez because they won't be able to afford new contracts for all their young stars.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/6/13/908390/rudy-fernandez-trade-bait

Not sure if we have the right ammo, but Flynn, future picks etc.  Obviously, they have Aldridge so they don't need a PF, but Love is a hometown hero...is it crazy to consider Love for Fernandez plus one of their SFs (Batum, Webster, Outlaw)?  I'm not suggesting that...just brainstorming.

Pie in the sky perhaps, but this would be my ideal scenario for the next week.

Trade Love for Memphis #2(draft Rubio) (filler as needed)
#6 and Foye for OKC #3 (draft Thabeet) (filler as needed...perhaps #28)
Use #18 to draft Terrence Williams

OKC needs a SG. Westbrook is big enough to guard opposing SGs leaving Foye on PG and OKC gets #6 to draft Hill, DeRozan or maybe Harden if he's avail. 

Memphis has PG (Conley) and needs PF...if Love were in this draft,
he'd go top 3-4.

T-Wolves line-up:

PG: Rubio/Telfair
SG: Miller/T. Williams
SF: Brewer/Gomes
PF: Jefferson/Rhino/Cardinal
C: Thabeet/Jefferson

I was going to add Miller plus #18 and #28 to Wizards for #5 and Etan Thomas' contract...then draft Harden. However, I don't think those assets are enough to get 5th pick in draft.

Also, might be able to move Miller and Cardinal's expiring contracts for a big time SG in the near future.