SB Nation User Blog: Taj Adib

Bill James 2010 Projections Now on Fangraphs

Taj Adib — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:03:00 -0000

I just got through perusing the Bill James 2010 projections that have been posted on the Fangraphs player pages. Some have suggested that James' projections are fairly optimistic...that may be true generally, but it doesn't seem to be the case with his projections for the 2010 A's position players. Even so, there seems to be a few reasons for optimism next season, if you're a believer in James' method of evaluation. Here are some of the highlights:

Barton - .254/.357/.405/.762 with 5 homers

I think Barton could very easily beat this projection, but not by leaps and bounds. I think his BA and OBP will be a little higher than this and I think he'll also post a higher slugging %. I'm guessing that he'll be more like .270/.370/.420 with about 12 homers. He won't ever be an All Star, but he'll be a decent contributor, playing good defense at 1st and approaching an .800 OPS.

Sweeney - .290/.351/.403/.754 with 8 homers.

I think this is about right for Sweeney. The power just isn't there at this point in his career, and he'll be 25 next season, so if it doesn't come soon, it might never come...like Barton, if he continues to play fine defense, he'll be a positive contributor regardless.

Rajai - .284/.339/.379/.718 with 50 STEALS!

This projection seems about right as well. James has Rajai slipping down to a more-normal-but-still-high .330 BABIP, probably due to his speed. With his defense and speed, I think we'll all be pretty happy if Rajai can put that triple-slash line together next season.

Hairston - .271/.325/.478/.803 with 20 homers.

James projects Hairston to bounce back in a big way. That type of line is definitely what I expected Hairston to do when he first got here. If he can stay healthy, I think he's plenty capable of putting this line together.

Cust - .253/.385/.464/.849 with 25 homers

James loves Cust for some reason. I think this projection is considerably over-optimistic. I think Jack will get-base at about a .380 clip, but with only slug for like .440. I'm projecting more of a .240/.380/.440 line with 25 homers, which is still a nice bounce-back year for him.

Suzuki - .275/.334/.412/.746 with 13 homers

Just about right for Kurt, in my opinion.

Pennington - .251/.338/.338/.676 with 2 homers and 13 steals

Whenever someone posts identical OBP/Slugging percentages, that person is either a Nick Johnson or Bobby Abreu type of on-base machine, or is a Bobby Crosby-ian type of punchless offensive player. I believe Pennington is much closer to being the latter...man, I really wish Beane could have swooped in and grabbed JJ Hardy...I hope Pennington can play pretty damn good defense, because that slugging percentage totally depresses me.

According to James, the A's pitching staff will be pretty damn awesome, with the exception of Cahill:

Braden - 3.94 FIP

Anderson - 3.63 FIP

Gio - 4.61 FIP

Mazzaro - 3.88 FIP

Cahill - 5.12 FIP

Eveland - 4.26 FIP

Kilby - 3.33 FIP

Bailey - 3.62 FIP

Breslow - 3.68 FIP

Devine - 2.89 FIP

Ziggy - 3.48 FIP

Wuertz - 3.31 FIP

Blevins - 3.07

GRay - 3.70 FIP

OVerall, it seems like James is projecting the A's to have a pretty deep and talented pitching staff and a mediocre offense buoyed up by a few bounce back years from some vets and a few league-average performances around the diamond, with a major speed attack via Rajai and little power. As long as the team plays strong defense next season, I'd be mostly happy if these projections came true and if Beane can add some sort of league average+ hitter at 3rd (Glaus?) and some sort of veteran better-than-average starter...I'm thinking that if all of that came to be, the 2010 A's could by like the 2009 Mariners, but a bit better offensively and a little worse defensively. That should at least position the A's to be a .500 at least, which would be a very welcome change...

Pitching, Defense, Power & Depth: Taj's Plan for 2010

Taj Adib — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:02:59 -0000

Now that my disappointment from this past season has somewhat subsided and I've gathered my thoughts as to what I think this team needs going into the winter, I'm going to attempt to put down on (virtual) paper my plan for making the A's more competitive in 2010 than they were in 2009.

First off, I'm going to admit that some of my plan involves a bit of "wishful thinking" and "sentimentality". From my perspective, 2010 will be the last time that we as fans will likely see life-long A's Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis wear the Oakland uniform (at least as players). Both guys have been class-acts both on and off the field, have represented the organization extremely well and have played instrumental roles on the field over the past decade in creating some of the best memories us fans have of this team. While I don't think that the future should be mortgaged or tens of million should be spent just to ensure that the last year of Ellis and Chavez in Oakland is a memorable one, I do think that some efforts should be made to give this team some hope of contention in 2010 before a full wave of youth overruns this organization and ushers in a totally new era of A's baseball.

In short...I think a component of the 2010 season will be the symbolic "passing of the torch" from the Big 3/Chavez/Ellis era to the Suzuki/Wallace/Carter/Anderson era, and the construction of the roster should reflect that gradual transition through the season. I would like to give these guys one last chance to win in an Oakland uniform, while still keeping the door open for the guys that should comprise the next great A's team once they prove they are fully major league ready.

Without further ado...

1. 40 Man Roster Maneuvering: To prepare for the off-season moving and shaking, the 40-man roster will need to be set with any Rule V eligible guys and potential free agents/dead weight will need to be jettisoned, while DL guys will need to be reinstated. With all that being said, I think two Rule V guys will need to be added (Chris Carter & Pedro Figueroa). At the same time, some dead weight should be removed from the roster such as Casilla, Reinecke, Carson and Denorfia.

Casilla- because he's just not that good and will arby-eligible for the first time this winter.

Reinecke- because I hope the A's will not consider him worthy of a big league job.

Carson- nice story and all but he doesn't have much of a future with this team or with MLB baseball.

Denorfia- just can't stay healthy enough to contribute.

When all the free agents (Tomko, Duke, Crosby, Nomar, Kennedy) file for free agency, they will also be removed from the roster. By my reckoning, that will leave 4 open spots on the 40-man, assuming that all arby guys (Cust, Devine, Rajai) are tendered contracts and retained.

2. A's trade Jeff Gray to D-Backs for Eric Byrnes + $9 million: I'm going to start off my maneuverings by explaining my most sentimental/most potentially controversial move. Byrnes will likely bring a spunk to this team and a link to the recent glorious past, but he could also be utilized effectively for this 2010 team. Byrnes has always performed well against lefties. Even in his mostly ineffective 2009, he slugged .494 against them and in recent years he's averaged a .470+ slugging against them. The A's were dead-last in slugging in the AL last season, so he brings a needed corner power bat. Byrnes also brings some speed on the basepaths and has been a pretty decent fielder in left over the course of his career (as per UZR). I see him as the righty-portion of a left-field platoon with Cust, whom he'll also replace defensively and on the basepaths late in games. Will the money involved, he'll also only cost the team $2 million in salary.

The D-Backs are on the verge of releasing Byrnes and would surely jump at the chance to unburden themselves of even a fraction of the money still owed to him, while picking up a decent reliever in Gray that could immediately help their pen.

3. A's trade Scott Hairston & Michael Wuertz to Atlanta for Kenshin Kawakami, then Kawakami & Eric Patterson to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy: I brought this idea up in another thread, and it was met with some resistance. I see it as a pretty fair trade for all involved. Atlanta is looking for a right-handed hitting outfield bat, while looking to shed some salary and open up a rotation spot for Tim Hudson, who they'll likey re-sign. With two of their late-inning relievers eligible for free agency, the Braves could also use Wuertz, who is likely at the peak of his value right now.

The Brewers are looking for stating pitching of all stripes, but mainly guys that they can plug-in behind Yovani Gollardo to provide some decent production and eat innings. Kawakami's no ace, but he performed fairly well in his introduction to American ball, is signed reasonably for two more seasons (about $13.5 million) and with some tutelage from new pitching coach Rick Peterson, could easily blossom into a reliable mid-rotation type.

(Some have insinuated that the A's should just keep Kawakami instead of trading him to the Brewers...I disagree. Kawakami may have performed adaquately in the non-DH league, but I think he'd take a hit moving to the AL and the A's have several young starters that have the talent to quickly blossom into much-better starters than Kawakami at a fraction of the cost.)

My argument for pursuing Hardy is as follows: I don't think Cliff Pennington is a starting caliber shortstop for a competitive team, no matter what Billy Beane says to the media. His defense, according to both my own eyes and his small sample size defensive-metrics, indicate that he is not a great defenisve shortstop and his minor league track record indicates that it's very very unlikely that he continues to slug over .400 as he gets more at-bats in the majors. Hardy, even after his ugly 2009 with the bat, remains a very solid defensive shortstop who, in my opinion, is much more likely to hit for power in 2010 (since he's done it for most of his career) than is Cliff Pennington- who has not. Furthermore, groundballing youngsters like Anderson, Cahill, Mazzaro and even Mortensen deserve a top-notch defensive middle infield at the very least, and with Hardy, the A's will have that.

Keep in mind also a relatively minor, but interesting fact: the A's returning hitting coach Jim Skaalen was Milwaukee's hitting coach in both 2007 and 2008, coincidentally, the two best offensive seasons of Hardy's career, where he averaged 25 homers, 76 RBI, 162 hits and hit about .280 overall. It's worth noting that a reunion between Hardy and Skaalen could at least lead to some constructive work towards getting Hardy back to that type of production. Although, it's possible Hardy will just improve all on his own.

4. A's sign Troy Glaus (1-year, $6.75 million) and re-sign Adam Kennedy (1-year, $1.25 million with second year $1.75 million option/$250,000 buyot): Nothing like getting the old-2002 ANAHEIM Angels band back together, right? In all seriousness...after looking at Glaus's stats over the past few years, I started to get really excited. He's exactly the type of addition this offense needs. He takes walks, hits for a decent average and even in his down (post-steroid?) years, is bascially a lock to hit over 20 homers. The health and age factors apply to Glaus, but I think he's a decent risk at under $8 million. He's nothing special with the glove at 3rd, but in recent years, he's been about average it seems, according to UZR.

I know, I know, Kennedy got really lucky with BABIP in 2009, will never OPS close to .758 ever again, is a poor defender, is a bad person, chews tobacco, sets a bad example for children, etcetera, etcetera...however, I still think it's would be a fairly good idea to bring him back. I definitely forsee Kennedy regressing next season, probably back to his career norms, something like .280/.340/.380. Yet, I also see him transitioning into an ultra-poor man's version of Mark DeRosa (without the power). Kennedy showed that he could at least handle 3rd base on a part time basis in 2009...he was definitely over-exposed there by the end of the year, but with a full off-season of practice, he could improve over there and be an adequate insurance policy for Glaus/Chavez and/or an adequate placeholder for Wallace/Cardenas. He could also spell Ellis at 2nd occasionally and has some experience in the outfield corners, where he could also take reps-at during the off-season and Spring Training to add a bit more utility to his game. If he plays adequate defense at the corners in limited playing time, steals some bases and puts-together some decent at-bats, then I think he'll be a solid contributor and valuable asset, especially since he'll likely only play a prominent role on the team in the beginning of the season as the team awaits the blossoming of Wallace and Carter. PLUS...the guy actually LIKES playing in Oakland and wants to be an Athletic! That's just unheard of!

5. Re-sign Justin Duchscherer (1-year, $4.5 million + $3.5 million in performance incentives) and re-sign Brett Tomko to a split major/minor league contract ($500,000 for minorleague portion, $1 million for major league portion): The Duke is such an odd-case, some might even call it an unprecedented case. A guy who's talent is undeniable but is afflicted with such a debilitating malady that really has no medically-based timetable for recovery (if one can ever really "recover" from clinical depression in the first place). I have no idea when Duke may be ready psychologically to return to a big-league mound...all I know is, looking at things from Duke's perspective and the A's perspective, whenever he does feel comfortable returning, coming back to Oakland would seemingly be a good fit for him both professional and personally.

Think about it...he's familiar with the organization and the park and facilities and whatnot...it's a completely no-pressure situation for him, since the team is coming off three straight subpar seasons and will likely not have a ton of money or resources dedicated to making the playoffs at all costs...the A's play in a perfect home park for a guy that puts a lot of balls in play...the A's have the payroll flexibility to offer him more guaranteed money than other teams that might just offer him more incentives...the A's have been willing to use him in any role on the pitching staff where he'd be most successful...and last but not least, the FANS will most definitely re-embrace him, knowing his history and easing him back into dominance!

As for Tomko...he pitched reasonably for the A's last season and is also somewhat of a perfect fit for Oakland Coliseum as a guy traditionally bedeviled by the long ball but that has decent stuff and pounds the strikezone. His arm tweekage of late this season is troubling, so I doubt he'll have suitors lining up around the corner to offer him a major league deal, but I think a split contract that offers him some guaranteed cash and the legitimate opportunity to break camp with the team from Spring Training should be a solid incentive for him to come back to the A's and provide some depth.

6. Start Carter, Wallace and Mazzaro in AAA: Carter and Wallace should get a month or two of additional seasoning in AAA to start 2010, mainly so that they can work on the defensive side of things and also so that they can get in an offensive rythm in a lower-pressure situation than the big leagues. Mazzaro really flamed out at the end of his major league stint in 2009 and succumbed to injury , so he could also use some low-pressure innings to start the year and get back into ryhthm. Should Duke need an extended time to return to the mound or another starter goes down, Mazzaro can step right back up into the MLB rotation.

When all is said and done, here's how the roster shapes up:

Starters:

1 - Braden (deserves to be Opening Day Starter again due to last season's success & ascension of leadership)

2 - Duke

3 - Anderson

4 - Cahill

5 - Gio

Bullpen:

6 - Bailey

7 - Devine

8 - Ziggy

9 - Meloan

10 - Breslow

11 - Blevins

12 - Kilby

Outfield

13 - Byrnes

14 - Cust (DH/LF)

15 - Sweeney

16 - Rajai

Infield

17 - Glaus

18 - Hardy

19 - Ellis

20 - Barton

21 - Suzuki

Bench

22 - Powell

23 - Kennedy

24 - Chavez (DH)

25 - Pennington

By my pretty liberal estimations of projected salaries, that roster would cost just a bit over $51 million dollars, even including Giambi's $1.25 million buyout. That's more than $10 million less than opening day payroll in 2009 and would generally re-set payroll obligations to 2003-levels. I think that number is perfectly do-able, even considering last season's pitiful attendance.

As far as projected lineups, I'd go with this, against righties:

CF - Rajai

RF - Sweeney

DH - Chavez (yes, this is part of my sentimental/wishful thinking line of thought)

3B - Glaus

LF - Cust

C - Suzuki

1B - Barton

SS - Hardy

2B - Ellis

Against lefties:

CF - Rajai

2B - Ellis

LF - Byrnes

3B - Glaus

C - Suzuki

DH - Cust

SS - Hardy

1B - Barton

RF - Sweeney

This is far from a perfect team, filled with plenty of health question marks and my plan is fairly reliant on a few guys regaining past forms (Cust, Byrnes, Hardy. Chavez)...however, I think this roster at least has the potential to click together well and really boost the offensive side of things for the A's in 2010, while keeping the pitching staff on track to remain the strong-suit of the organization going forward. The middle of the order has some 20+ homer bats from both sides of the plate, and there is some speed at the top of the order, and there is some length to the lineup with a (hopefully) rebounding Hardy and a (hopefully) more developed Barton.

The outfield is a little thin depth-wise, but in this situation, Sweeney can cover center in the event Raj goes down or is ineffective, Byrnes can take a more full-time role if need be and Kennedy can cover left in an emergency. At the same time, Buck and Cunningham will presumably be in Sacramento, ready to fill in whenever necessary, while Carter and Doolittle will likely also be available should ineffectiveness or injury open up an opportunity in the outfield.

In the infield, you've got a capable 2-person depth at every position (Kennedy at 3rd, Pennington at short and 2nd, Powell at 1st) and you can rotate several guys (Chavez, Glaus, Cust) through the DH slot for specific matchups and to give guys days off in the field.

In the bullpen, I like this configuration of 3 lefties, since all 3 lefties can get righties out and go multiple innings. Meloan is a much better garbage-time/middle reliever than Casilla or others of the recent past while still possessing the ability to be a quality set-up guy, while Ziggy, Devine and Bailey can split-up late inning duties with ease. Demel, Mortensen, Marshall and H-Rod will all be in AAA in case of need.

The offense is rebuilt here without making a short-term play like the Holliday deal last season...the big move, for Hardy, is one where two useful but "getting expensive older guys" are exchanged for someone that fills a position of need while still being young enough and talented enough to be a major piece of a playoff team in 2010 or 2011.

And I think that this type of roster gives the A's a chance to contend from the get-go next season and run with what they've got right now, rather than rushing a couple of prospects (Wallace, Carter) up to the show when they could still refine their overall games with some time in the minors. At the same time, once these guys are ready, there shouldn't be any huge impediments on the major league roster for them to overcome...if Wallace is ready in May or June, then he can take over 3rd and Glaus (if healthy) can move to DH or 1st, ditto for Chavez...and if Carter is ready, he can supplant Barton or the Cust/Byrnes platoon in left or even Sweeney if he doesn't start hitting for power. On the pitching side, Josh Outman should be ready at some point in the 2nd half of the season, at which point he and/or Mazzaro could easily bolster the big league starting rotation.

In short, what I'm saying is: bring in a few guys to give this team some depth and some chance to compete from the get-go next season without sacrificing any young players and for an overall minimal cost. Bring-in fan-favorite Byrnes to give the team a little personality and some lefty-mashing. Tighten up the middle infield defense with Hardy, add some depth to the starting rotation and roll with it. If it works and people stay healthy, great, you've got a good little team. If it doesn't, wait a little bit for Wallace and Carter and then play it from there...which was the main plan anyway...

I don't think this an infallible plan...but I think it's a much more palatable version of the strategy Beane tried to employ last season, with the added benefit of a full season of maturation for the young players that were so green last year...I think it could work...but then again, I think it all could blow up and fall apart...but, while the cost is just a couple fungible assets and a few million dollars, I think the team should try it out...

Thursday Tidbits with Taj

Taj Adib — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 01:02:51 -0000

Wow...it's truly a wonder what a week or two of "not-awful" baseball will do for my energy level and willingness to share my thoughts with AN. A few weeks ago, even if I had something remotely interesting to say, I'd just say "Eff it, this team is going to suck no matter what I say..." But anyways, here's a few things that have been on my mind:

1. Major League Manager, Minor League Expectations

I've been as hard on Geren (and the decision to hire him/extend him from the front office) as anybody on AN. I still think he's a poor manager/leader, but it's interesting how the team's recent improved play has somewhat lessened my overall dislike of the man. Ever since the organization's priority has changed from "Let's win now with this collection of vets that'll hopefully hit enough to make up for our incredibly inconsistent, young rotation," to a now, "Let's not put such a premium on winning, but rather just give some young guys a shot to prove what they can do," Geren has looked somewhat capable as a manager - his bullpen management in particular the past few games has been pretty good and he even showed some emotion with that blown call on Tuesday night (though he probably should have forced his way out of the game, as a statement to the team).

I think what really exposed Geren as a manager was that he's not cut out to be the manager of a major league team, but he's a pretty good minor league manager. While a major league manager needs experience to know how to handle a million different situations a million different ways, and needs a subtlety to eek out production from aging vets, while also showing a little fire, emotion and even anger around young guys to keep them focused; a minor league manager just fills out the lineup card, makes sure each guy gets his work in and keeps his players upbeat by patting them on the back no matter what the outcome is.

Geren is a perfect minor league manager, no question about it. He even gets paid on a scale as if he's a minor league manager. Now that he's "captaining" a mostly-minor league-level team, he suddenly looks capable...it all makes sense to me! Earlier this season, when he had to deal with actual "expectations", he didn't look too good. But now, he even seems like a - dare I say - decent fit for this team this year and into 2010? Now that the team is back to running with the young guys without a real urgency to win, why not just run Bobby out there again to manage the Oakland Rivercats in 2010? At least he won't hurt anyway's feelings...I just hope that by the time this team has even a chance of reaching the post-season (say, 2011, when Bob's contract ends) this organization will commit to an actual major league manager who can guide this team to sustained victory, not just happy thoughts in the clubhouse.

2. The Cust Conundrum

From the "Scouts’ views on various major league players" section of John Perrotto's "On the Beat" column over at BP:

Athletics designated hitter Jack Cust: "The league has figured him out and he can’t adjust back. He had a nice little run last year, but he is what is and that’s a Quad-A player."

I'm as big of a fan of Jack Cust as anybody out there. But I have to admit he just hasn't looked the same this season as he did last year and especially how he did in his breathrough 2007 campaign. Maybe it's the whole "strikeout less, make more contact" approach this season that is killing him, or maybe it's a hidden injury. Yet, he's not really striking out all that much less as he has in previous seasons...he's K-ing about 7% less than he did the last two years. At the same time, his average is in freefall, along with his slugging percentage. In all, his OPS has trended down for all three seasons he's been a regular in the big leagues. Do I really think that he's a .731 OPS hitter (2009)? No, I do not. But I also don't believe that he's a .912 OPS hitter (2007) or even an .851 OPS hitter (2008) at this point. Maybe he just can't adjust to what people are throwing him these days. Maybe he's just become a little younger and maybe a little more powerful image of Giambi circa a few weeks ago: a guy that takes his walks and hits a few homers, but someone without any defensive value who cannot make enough consistent contact to justify an everyday job.

I'm thinking about 2010 here. Cust will eligible for arbitration for the second time this off-season, and will likely get a very modest raise to something around $3 million (he made $2.8 million this season). Is Jack worth that much? On a rebuilding team? To THIS rebuilding team? He might be the only true power threat this team has under control at this point, but he might not even get to 20 homers this season...would the 2010 team be better served giving DH at-bats to a collection of young hitters who need the seasoning (Everidge, Barton, Buck - maybe even Wallace and Carter later in the year)? If Chavez can become healthy enough to take semi-consistent at-bats, does the team just go with him as the everyday DH?

And what do you do from there? Do you try to trade Cust, coming down from a career-worst year? Do you non-tender him, see if he'll take a pay-cut and stay with the team? Or am I thinking too much, and will/should the team just re-up him for 3-mill next season? If the team does keep him, I would hope that he is put into the 2-hole in the lineup...with Rajai/Patterson in front of him, you'd get a guy who naturally takes a lot of pitches hitting behind two guys that can basically steal a base at-will...I think that's a better lineup strategy than "Cust is the only guy that can hit 30 homers, so let's just put him in the clean-up spot because we have to."

3. Kennedy for (clubhouse) Prez in 2010!

I'm really enjoying watching Adam Kennedy play this season. I think he's the perfect fit for this team. He's just like a left-handed version of Mark Ellis...can do a little of everything (especially the fundamentals), plays solid defense, is a team-first guy and is even-keeled and seemingly supportive of the young guys. I've already made my plea to have him back next season...but it's been pointed out that he'll probably want some decent coin and a starting gig after the year he's having so far. I might agree with that, I can certainly understand that from Adam's perspective. But if you were the A's front office, what would you think is a fair-value offer for him? He's making $4 million this season (from the contract he signed with the Cards a few years back before they cut him). Would he really take a 50% pay-cut to $2 million on a 1-year deal? Maybe $3 million for a year and on option? With a lot of payroll flexibility next season, can the team even really consider bringing him back?

I think the team could offer him at least a partial guarantee of a starting gig...I do not think Brett Wallace will begin the year as Oakland's starting 3rd baseman. Kennedy could start the year out as the starting 3rd baseman, and then transition to a utility role once Wallace looks truly ready to be an impact hitter in the big leagues. I'm hopeful that some sort of understanding can be made to keep Kennedy around next season.

4. Where can this team improve on in the off-season?

I found Billy Beane's Brain's recent diary "Are these the A's of 2010?" simply fascinating. If you look around the diamond, the rotation and in the outfield and in the bullpen, it certainly looks like the team has every position covered going into 2010 with a young, somewhat promising prospect or prospectS, and/or a solid vet. I think it would be nice to sign a veteran pitcher for some depth in the rotation (Hudson or Mulder if healthy would both be intriguing) or maybe Doug Davis or even Carl Pavano for a very low base deal. But beyond that, I just don't see a real obvious place where a free agent or even a trade would work for this team, especially if Chavez can do any sort of sustained baseball activity and/or Cust is retained. For the first time in a long time, it could be a very boring off-season for us A's fans.

4. Get the Draft Picks Signed!

Well, Beane is "optimistic" that the team will sign Grant Green before Tuesday's deadline and Max Stassi is "leaning" towards signing with the A's and foregoing UCLA...but nothing in this business is for sure until the ink is dry on the contract. I'm not necessarily concerned about the negotiations at this point...I think both contracts will get done. However, I'll still let it be known that if these two guys don't get signed for whatever reason (or even just one or the other doesn't), I'll be pretty frustrated. The team didn't have a 2nd rounder this season and had only one pick in the 1st round and hasn't gone overslot in any of their other signings up to this point AND has shed $5+ million from the major league player payroll...I know that the team is theoritically losing money this season, but with all that perceived flexibility, it will be a real blunder in my opinion if Green and/or Stassi don't sign simply over a matter of a few hundred thousand dollars or so.

5. The Shortstop Situation

Cliff Pennington's having a nice little "coming out party" of sorts so far after being gifted the starting shortstop gig a week or so ago...but does anyone think that he'll sustain a .359 BABIP and a 27% line-drive percentage? Based on his extensive minor league history, I don't think so. I do think, however, that his defense has become major league quality...maybe not game-changing, but he's at least an average MLB defender at this point. His quickness is an asset at this point in his career both on the basepaths and in the field. I've been one of the most vehement supporters of trying to trade for JJ Hardy, but even with the latest roster shuffling in Brewtown, I don't think that Hardy will just be given away by Milwaukee. And I don't think that any type of Duke-for-Hardy swap could possibly go down at this point, given the waiver issue. In the off-season things would obviously be easier...but at that point, what would Milwaukee be asking for and what would the A's be ready/willing to give? Hardy, for likely only 1-year, is not worth any of the MAC or Braden or Gio, and I can't really see the Brewers being jazzed by a package fronted by Eveland or Mortensen or even Simmons. And in any case, even if a package could be agreed upon, would Hardy (with his semblance of power and defense be a big-enough upgrade over Pennington to be worth the money and the prospects involved?) I don't know, but it seems like if Pennington can just play good defense and get on-base a bit and steal a few bags, he'll be the A's starting shortstop for the foreseeable future, for better or for worse.

6. The Duke Conundrum

If Duke comes back next Tuesday and then again 5 days after that, and resembles the Duke of old, do the A's pass him through waivers and then just dump him on the team that claims him? Sure, it would save the team some cash over the next month and a half or so, and Duke could go down at any point in the coming weeks, but he's still a pretty solid pitcher when healthy that would be a really nice 6th starter as the innings wind-down for the young guys. And who knows, if this team keeps winning consectuive series', this team might have a shot to finish around .500 when all is said and done. That would be a remarkable feat, considering this rollercoaster season. Duke could be a big part of that charge. He's currently projected to be a Type-B free agent even without pitching a game this season, so the team could play out the string with him, offer him arb in the off-season and get an extra pick next season when he inevtably sings elsewhere (Slusser mentioned today that he's not coming next season). So, at this point, I say keep the Duke...but then I'll probably look like a fool tomorrow when news comes across the wire stating that he "had a setback in his recovery" and will be shut-down indefinitely.

7. The Kilby Killah!

Come September callup time, I'm really hoping that one Brad Thomas Kilby finally gets his chance to make his major league debut. Ever since coming out of San Jose State in the 29th round of the 2005 draft, Kilby has consistently performed at every level. He's got a career K/9 of 10.2 and a career K/BB ratio of 3.09, which is darn good for a funky lefty. He's also got a rubber arm, averaging 50+ appearances and 60+ innings in each season he's thrown at a full-season affiliate and has never suffered a major injury as a pro. He also doesn't have any glaring platoon split. Here's what Sactown manager Tony Defrancesco had to say about Kilby in a recent interview with Scout.com:

OC: One guy who has had a great year for you out of the bullpen is Brad Kilby. What kind of pitcher is he for you?

TD: He’s been awesome. He’s a guy who is not afraid to throw strikes. He can get lefties and righties out. I think that is his big plus. He’s got a good off-speed and he is sneaky fast. He hides the ball well behind his back. There is no doubt that he is another guy who when September comes is going to get some consideration for a call-up.

I hope he gets more than "some consideration for a callup." The organziation left Brad exposed to the Rule V draft last off-season, and no one took him, so maybe there is some "Scouting" concerns about Brad that don't show up in the box score. Even so, I'd hope that with the way he's throwing this season, he gets rewarded with a callup and a 40-man roster spot. If nothing else, he's a guy that can chew middle relief innings fairly effectively without getting lit-up by opposite-side batters (ahem, Casilla). A relieable arm like that is a fairly valuable commodity, especially with a guy that has a full slate of minor league options...so let's get the NorCal native on the 40-man and in the big leagues in September!

Inexplicable Lack of Information From the Organization

Taj Adib — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 23:46:44 -0000

The latest blog post from Susan Slusser really highlights a worrying off-the-field trend I'm seeing with this organization...namely the inexplicable lack of available information related to player news and the general lack of transperancy in general with this club. The Slusser article seems almost laughable:

Top news from here: Dallas Braden is iffy for tomorrow's start with a rash that became inflamed on his left ankle. I asked the option if Braden can't go and manager Bob Geren said they're considering the options. I mentioned Edgar Gonzalez and didn't get much idea if Gonzalez is in the mix. "We'd have to get someone else," Geren said.

Braden's rash was the result of a neoprene guard he wears to protect his big toe, which drags during his delivery. Braden is wearing a big wrap on his foot today.

Jason Giambi didn't come off the DL today and when asked about it, Geren said, "Nothing has changed." I pressed him to be more specific and he said nothing more than that, that nothing has changed. I asked since when, and he said since yesterday. I asked what it is specifically that is keeping the team from activating Giambi and he said, again, "Nothing has changed."

So.....I'm baffled.

Slusser goes on to mention Justic Duchscherer, who was mysteriously scratched from his rehab start last Friday for undisclosed reasons...reasons that remain undisclosed well into the following week AFTER he was initially scratched from the start. Previous reports indicated that Duchscherer pitched well and felt fine after his first rehab start in Stockton, so this mysterious lack of information is even more troubling.

So, Geren seems completely ignorant of the team's thinking and just ends up looking moronic with his bland and vague answers to completely legitmate media questions, while the higher-ups certainly seem especially nefarious as they hoarde any and all information that the paying fan is entitled to, in my humble opinion. Not only is the team keeping information from us, but they now seem to be actively providing us with MIS-information at the same time - "Duchscherer felt fine after his last outing and is on track to be activated in August/Travis Buck still has a bright future with this team/Eric Chavez felt great after his latest surgery and is on-track to be ready for Spring Training".

I feel bad to be bringing this up after a great win last night and hate to be Debby Downer, but is anyone else concerned about this? It's really frustrating for me, but I can't imagine how it must seem to Slusser and others actually trying to make a living out of getting accurate and interesting information from within the Concrete Curtain of the Oakland/Alameda Coliseum.

Tidbits with Taj: Post-Holliday Edition

Taj Adib — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 15:53:40 -0000

Despite a continuation of the team's season-long losing ways, the past few days have seen some renewed hope around these parts. Personally, I'm getting really excited for the near-term future for the first time since the first series of this season. Even so, I think there are still several things that I've been concerned about/thinking about as this organization runs full steam ahead towards preparing for the 2010 season:

1) Wallace at 3rd: The scouts really seem mixed on Wallace's "defensive ceiling" so to speak. The consensus seems to be that he has almost non-existent range, but good enough natural instincts, footwork and arm strength to field whatever is hit to his general vicinity. In order to maximize his value to the team, I think he should remain at 3rd in the minors for the rest of this season and break into the majors next season at 3rd as well. It would be great if the team could target a shortstop in free agency or in the trade market who has great range to compensate for Brett's defensive shortcomings. Jack Wilson, while a well-below average offensive player, remains a stalwart on defense with great range and should be available on the free agent market this winter for a modest price. The A's could also target JJ Hardy or Reid Brignac in trade talks in the coming months, both of whom come with solid defensive reputations.

2) Dearth of Pitching Depth: I'm as big of a fan of the young A's starting rotation as anybody, and the front four (Braden, Anderson, Cahill, Mazzaro) seem poised to stay together for years and anchor this team's staff well into next decade. However, beyond that front four, there seems to be a real drop-off in terms of MLB-ready/effective pitching in the upper levels of the system. The combination of the young guys' inconsistencies, the total enigma/occasional piñata known as Gio Gonzalez and the long-term injury to Josh Outman leaves me less than convinced that this team can compete over a full season. Without a reliable 5th starter and some AAA depth, the A's rotation is one injury away from being totally overexposed. Guys like Dana Eveland, James Simmons, Graham Godfrey and recently-acquired Clayton Mortenson might be able to fill-in a bit over the next year or so, but all have significant issues to work on and are hardly sure-things. With some money to (presumably) spend this winter, I would hope the team looks into signing a veteran starter to help protect against injuries and bridge the gap until/if Josh Outman can return to the rotation. Tim Hudson, Doug Davis, Brad Penny and Randy Wolf could all be decent options on 1-year deals. Depending on how he rehabs and returns to the team in the next month or so, the team could also offer arbitration to Justin Duchscherer and hope he accepts...but that could be a risky proposition though, considering that Duke makes nearly $4 million this season.

3) Kennedy back next year...and O-Cab too?: It's great to hear that Adam Kennedy "Absolutely loves it," in Oakland and wants to return next season. AK's been a nice bright spot for this team so far this season and he seems like a solid-clubhouse guy and veteran presence. He can a do a little bit of everything on the field and has shown his versatility by seamlessly transitioning to 3rd base. I think he'd be a nice 1-year bench buy for 2010, provided he doesn't want much more than $1.5 million for 2010. He can back-up 2nd and 3rd, he stays relatively healthy and should be an improvement over the AAAA fodder like Petit and Pennington. I know O-Cab has been a general disappointment to A's fans this season, but he's recently picked-up his play both offensively and defensively and still offers a somewhat diverse package of skills for a middle infielder. He also has indicated that he feels comfortable with the A's and living in the Bay Area. Seeing as how the A's can't even offer him arbitration if they wanted to, it makes a bit of weird sense that he could return to the A's next season in a bench role for a lot less than the $4 million he's making this season - provided he isn't traded in the interim. So long as they're both projected as bench players going into 2010 and make a combined salary of less than $3-4 million next season, I don't think it's the worst idea to try to bring both AK and O-Cab back next season. Together they can back-up pretty much every infield position capably, one bats lefty, one bats righty, they can both hit the gaps and turn on a pitch occasionally and can steal some bases every once in awhile. With the way the A's infield has been decimated by injuries in the past few seasons, it may be worth having these guys around next season just for insurance.

4) Versatality the new Moneyball?: The recent decision to recall Eric Patterson instead of Travis Buck to replace Matt Holliday's vacant roster spot seemed to me the most recent example of the renewed emphasis on versatility being placed by the A's organization. As Kevin Goldstein pointed out in his recent Monday Ten Pack:

One of my favorite scout quotes in recent years concerned Patterson, when an evaluator, comparing him to his brother Corey, said of Eric, "Half the athlete, and twice the ballplayer." Acquired from the Cubs last year in the Rich Harden deal, Patterson has been playing multiple positions for the RiverCats and hitting in every one of them, as a 7-for-13 weekend that included two doubles, a triple, and a home run upped his season line to .318/.387/.517 with 33 stolen bases in 39 attempts. The A's have dreams on him turning into a Chone Figgins type who can provide roster flexibility while producing in multiple positions.

The team also went out and got a near-Figgins clone in Corey Wimberly late in the Spring in a deal with the Rockies. Patterson and Wimberly both seem like players the team would have never targeted a few years back. In addition to getting these two "super-utlity types", the team has also been experimenting down in Midland with various defensive alignments. Adrian Cardenas has played a little shortstop and a lot of 3rd base and 2nd base, while Josh Donaldson has played mostly catcher, but also a bit of 3rd and 1st - not to mention Sean Doolittle's ability to play the corner outfield spots and 1st base. It's very exciting to me that within a couple of years the big league team could be featuring a super-versatile, athletic team with multiple guys that can play multiple positions capably and produce at each position - rather than being a hobbled, limited and unexciting group that we've become accustomed to.

5) Moving Hairston?: I'm not a big fan of Scott Hairston. To me, he seems like a more-expensive, older version of Aaron Cunningham. A little power, a lot of strikeouts, not a ton of walks, decent batting average and a fair defender. At first, I liked the deal to get him, since it seemed like a fair trade and definitely improved the struggling offense. But now I'm starting to second-guess the deal (especially since we know that Sean Gallagher is part of the trade) and because it seems like the team is overloaded with younger, cheaper outfielders. I'm interested to see if Beane is listening to offers on Hairston, who's relativelty affordable and can provide a little pop for the stretch run for a team like the Tigers or the Giants. Moving both Holliday and Hairston in a week's time might seem hasty by normal standards, but this is Beane we're talking about...with Patterson up with the big club and the team wanting to see what it might have in Buck at some point, I wouldn't rule out a Hairston trade.

6) Rally 'Round the (Bear) Flag?: I consider myself a general Citizen of California ahead of being a "Norcal-er" or "SoCal-er". I have lived in both the Bay Area and L.A. for about the same amount of time and have an equal amount of connections to both areas of the state. Part of the reason I first got really into the A's a few years back was because of how many California-natives they had in their organization - including Billy Beane himself, Eric Chavez, Barry Zito, Mark Kotsay, Eric Byrnes, Jason Kendall, Bobby Crosby, Jason Giambi, not to mention the elder generation of Rickey, McGwire and Eckersley. Not that being Californian should be a pre-requisite for being an Oakland A or even an Oakland A's fan, however, I'm really excited that the organization seems to be bringing in a significant number of local Bay Area and California kids into the organization - either intentionally or simply by coincidence. Guys like Brett Wallace, Tyson Ross, Dallas Braden and (possibly) Max Stassi provide the fan with an added connection to the players on the field...the added significance of "rooting for the local boy(s)." In no way am I advocating the A's target players exclusively because of where they were born or raised, but I'm just commenting that it brings an added bit of enjoyment for me to see talented players from Northern California produce for the A's.

Just a Few Tidbits with Taj

Taj Adib — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:41:42 -0000

Last night's loss was tough, but I've gotten used to it with this outfit. I don't want to really re-hash any of the "lack of passion/lack of intensity/lack of focus" debates that we've had here on this site several times already this season, but I need to vent on a few topics regarding this team and hope to just get some constructive conservation going:

1. The Coaching/Manager Issue: I know everybody has different opinions regarding the importance of a baseball manager and the major league coaching staff. I get that and we're all aware of where I stand on the issue. I can respect the opinions of others who think that Geren and the rest of the coaching staff bear little or no responsibility for the horrible play of the A's this season. I can even respect the opinions of A's management if they decide to keep Geren and others in charge of this outfit...but I'd at least like to see the organization show that they are "investigating" whether the coaching is part of the problem, part of the solution or just irrelevant, rather than just showing blind faith in a group of coaches that haven't really shown the ability to maximize the talents of the players under their charge (excepting maybe Curt Young and Ron Romanick). I really enjoyed reading this statement from Nationals president Stan Kasten when asked about the possibility that the team would fire manager Manny Acta:

...I can confess to you how perplexed I am by this season, this team, and the things that are going on. Our record is a real trouble to me, every single day. I'm troubled by everything, and we continue to look for solutions. Have I thought about every possibility? Of course I have, as has Mike, as have our owners. We're certainly not satisfied with our record, far from it. We're distraught over it, and we're going to consider anything we need to do to make it better.

If I read a similar statement from Beane and Company, I confess that I would feel a little better about things. Without really deciding anything, it would at least indicate that the team was looking for solutions in every possible avenue, rather than just repeating the refrain, "Injuries have hurt us" and "The offense needs to come around." Since player input hastened Ken Macha's departure after 2006, perhaps players should be solicited with their opinions of whether Geren should remain manager in 2009?

2. The Holliday Situation: Buster Olney and others are trying to make the case that the "A's need to trade Holliday before the deadline or else risk losing out on draft pick compensation because he's surely going to accept arbitration and cost the team $15/16 million". I find that line of thinking somewhat of a stretch. Sure, Holliday isn't tearing up the American League and is not in the position to demand a $100 million free agent contract after the season, but even with his major struggles to begin the year, the guy is still on pace to hit nearly 25 homers, steal 13-15 bases, drive-in nearly 100 and hit .280/.290. He's still in his prime and has a phenomenal track record. Besides that, three of the biggest markets in the game will be looking for corner outfield help at the end of the season (Angels, Red Sox, Yankees) and at least one of those, but more likely all three, will surely offer Matt a multi-year contract offer that will far exceed the $15 or $16 million he may get by accepting arbitration with the A's. Besides, is having a highly-motivated Matt Holliday on a 1-year deal during a year when the A's have a ton of payroll flexibility (2010) that bad of a Plan B or C for this team? I don't think so. Bottom line: Beane's in the driver's seat with Holliday and I expect him to deal him only if he get can a pretty valuable package of prospects.

3. The Chavez Situation: Chavvy's recent decision to undergo another back surgery got me hoping and praying that this was the background conversation that led to the decision:

Beane: "Chavvy...you're surely not coming back at all this season and, as things stand, you're costing us $12 million for next year as well. There's really only one chance to get you back on the field, and that's to get another surgery now. If we do it now, there's a chance you could be ready for Spring Training in 2010, but there's also a chance your career will be over before then. If you get the surgery now, and you don't feel better by Spring Training, will you agree to retire and save us some money?"

Chavvy: "Umm...well...I feel great right now, but sure, let me call Kotsay and talk with my family and then I'll let you know."

(Ten Minutes Later)

Chavvy: "Yeah, let's do it. I'll get the surgery done in a few days and go from there."

Beane: (jumping up and down) "Awesome, thanks...any chance we can that agreement in writing?"

Seriously...if this latest surgery leaves Chavvy's back "too unstable" to play baseball, he NEEDS to retire. The current status quo of "I'm going to try my darndest to get back on the field while I'm under contract" is just untenable for the franchise. His vascillations between complete resignation to retirement to unbridgled optimism are sapping a lot of energy from the fan base and the organization.

4. Is Bonds a Possibility?: Every year this topic gets broached here on AN, and I aim to make sure it's on the backburner this year too. If Beane doesn't find a deal for Holliday that is to his liking, this team as currently constituted will likely remain intact for the duration of the season, for better or worse, due to the untradable nature of Giambi, Cabrera and Nomar. If that turns out to be the case, shouldn't the team at least investigate possibile ways to improve the team for the stretch run? Bonds, currently unemployed, could potentially add some much-much needed pop and OBP to the team for some of July and September. He'd likely sign for cheap and would motivated to reach some milestones (he needs 65 more hits for 3,000, 38 homers for 800, and needs to score 69 more runs to move past Rickey as the all-time leader in runs scored). It's highly doubtful that he could achieve any of those milestones in a month or two of action, but Bonds is enough of an egomaniac to at least try. Given that he'd only cost money (and only a small amount at that - less than $1 million) and would drum up at least a little bit of interest in the A's and would buttres the young pitchers a bit, does anybody think it's even a possibility? I say it's possible...DH Bonds, platoon Nomar and Giambi at 1st and play Cust in right full-time. Terrible defense, but a lineup full of formerly big-names might be fun to watch for a month or two...I'm not saying it's a great idea, or even a good one, but this team is pretty desperate for offense...

Some Trade ideas for if/when Beane decides to Sell

Taj Adib — Fri, 22 May 2009 19:18:38 -0000

From Jayson Stark's ESPN "Rumbling & Grumblings" column, 5/21/2009:

Clubs that have spoken to the A's report that Billy Beane "has had it" with his scuffling outfit. But it figures to be at least a month before he starts unloading Matt Holliday or anyone of significance.

"If he could do something right now, he'd do it," said one front-office man. "But I don't think clubs have enough feel for what they've got on that club. So I'd say late June, early July is more likely."

So maybe Beane isn't as clueless to this "scuffling outfit" as we've made him out to be...at least we can hope. The timeframe Stark lays out seems about right to me. Give this team one more month to snap out of it's funk and one more month for the rest of the teams out there to decide between "buying" and "selling" and then start wheeling and dealing if it's the latter for these A's.

Like Beane, it seems, I'm starting to get the itch for the trade bug, so here I go with my first batch of trade ideas. We all know the A's need a new 3rd baseman, shortstop and possibly even a centerfielder. So here goes:

While the early indications are that the trade market for guys like Matt Holliday might be less robust than previously thought, I would bet that Beane will still be able to rassle up a few intriguing packages as "bubble" teams start getting desperate for that missing piece that will put them over the top. Holliday is finally finding his stroke and with another few weeks to get his overall stats in order, he could become a very valuable trade piece. In addition, Beane should have the payroll flexibility to be able to throw in a significant amount of money to help cover Holliday's remaining 2009 salary, which should also work in his favor, as he could effectively "buy" a better set of prospects from an acquiring team if the financial outlay is lessened. Here are some trade ideas:

- Atlanta: The Braves badly need an infusion of power in the lineup and happen to have a gaping hole in left field at the moment. The Atlanta farm system is fairly stacked with talented prospects, however, I doubt the team would part with any of their top talent (Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Schafer). They do have a shortstop prospect in Double-A at the moment (Brandon Hicks) that is struggling so far this season and has some contact issues, but has historically hit for power, drawn some walks and played good defense. Provided he gets his act together a bit, he could be an option for the big league team in 2010 at some point. RHP Kris Medlen could also be a nice get as a command-control righty that could be a mid-rotation type guy. Perhaps the package could be rounded out by a high-ceiling lower minors arm (which the Braves have plenty of). Unfortunately, none of these guys will be high-impact players this season, so a perfect match it may not be.

- Kansas City: It would really be interesting to see the Royals make a big play for the post season this year after so many seasons of struggling. The AL Central seems definitely winnable this year, and with Zack Greinke's historic-level early season dominance, Gil Meche eating up innings, Bannister pitching well and the bullpen dominating, to go along with a few surprise offensive performers, the Royals could have the ingredients to make a run. Holliday could be used to push DeJesus out of left field and give them a big power power boost to slot behind Mike Jacobs. In addition, the Royals are definitely looking for a shortstop to replace the one-hit wonder Mike Aviles. They would likely be interested in O-Cab as well. The only deal I could really see working would be Holliday + Cabrera + cash for 3B Mike Moustakas. Moustakas is a monster prospect and is the gem of the Royal farm system, so I don't think they would just fork him over, but if they get desperate enough...

- Mets: I'm sure that with the injuries to Delgado and Reyes, the Mets would love to add Holiday right now and for the stretch run. Looking at their minor league system, it doesn't seem like a real solid match could be made, although Daniel Murphy (up with the big club) seems like a solid but unspectacular hitter that could take over 3rd base duties for the A's right now. The team also has high-upside potential CFer Fernadno Martinez and some raw arms. I would imagine that the Mets wouldn't part with Murphy and F-Mart together, but you'd never know...

- Cardinals: I would love the A's to pry Brett Wallace away from the Cards with some combination of cash, Holliday, O-Cab, Ellis, Springer, Duke or Casilla, but I just don't think it happening. The Cards have plenty of productive outfielders and they seem to want to ADD 3rd basemen to their system, not trade one away...but here again, desperation could play a part...

- Giants: McCovery Chronicles is thinking that if the Giants stay close by deadline time, they could pursue Holliday and might use Tim Alderson as the bait. Even with their pitching depth, I doubt they would give up a Top-5 prospect like Alderson for a rental like Holliday and their positional prospects aren't anything special, so I don't anything is going to happen with Gnats...

- Angels: For all intents and purposes, I would think that if the A's are totally out of it by this time next month, a deal with the Angels would make the most sense, besides the whole inter-divisional-bitter-rivalry thing. For one thing, the Angels are always in need of more power, especially with an ailing Vladi Guerrero and with a firepower discrepancy between themselves and the Rangers - their likely competition for the division. Secondly, Holliday would be a good fit in the Sciosca-style offense, as he can hit for average and power, is pretty aggressive, and runs well. On a personal level, I know that Holliday owns an off-season home in Orange County and is a big family guy that would likely fit-in with the Angel clubhouse. The Angels could also likely make a big, Teixera-like play to keep Holliday after this season, especially considering that Vladi's contract is done after ths season and Holliday could become the new face of the franchise. The A's would likely take Brandon Wood from the Halos in a heartbeat and might even be interested in Sean Rodgriguez or Reggie Willits or an A-ball arm or two. Seeing as how all those players have been long-overlooked by the Angel brass and aren't critical to either the team's long-term or short-term success, I think a match could easily be made between the two teams.

- Padres: I don't think that the rumors are true linking Chase Headley with a possible trade for Yuniesky Betancourt. Even so, with the Padres looking to dump players and totally rebuild, it's possible that the team might make him available for some much-needed infusion of prospects. The A's could make like Kenny Williams and aggressively push a deal on the Padres...maybe something like Gio/Simmons, Petit and Corey Brown for Headley? Or maybe it may even be possible to buy Headley off the Padres (who are looking to dump salary) by agreeing to take on Scott Hairston for the rest of the year along with Headley for the prospects listed above. I would hate to even mention the idea of taking-on Brian "Woman Beater" Giles and his lifeless bat and the rest of his 9 million dollar salary, but if it meant that the A's could keep a prospect or two and still get Headley? You'd have to think about it...in addition to Headley, the A's could easily put together a deal for the whiff-artist Kouzmanoff at pretty much anytime. Kevin is up for arbitration after this season, has always had trouble hitting at Petco and just isn't that great of a player. However, he does have some pop, is decent against lefties and plays a decent 3rd base. He would be a real nice platoon partner for Eric Chavez for a year or two and would maybe cost Petit and Eveland or Petit and Blevins.

That's all I got for today.

Just a few Gripes

Taj Adib — Mon, 11 May 2009 17:58:31 -0000

Although I planned to launch into a profanity-laced tirade following the team's 18th embarrassing loss of the season yesterday, I've calmed my jets over the past 12 hours or so and only have a few gripes to get to this early afternoon:

1. I think what most of us here on AN are most frustrated about is this team's lack of fire, or at the very least, lack of concern about their monumental offensive struggles. Far too many times this season you'll hear a player here or a player there just shrug-off a shut-out or near shut-out and just say, "Well, Giambi and Holliday have been too good in the past to stay this bad in the future. So we'll be fine." That's just ridiculous to me. The way to win ball games when the heart of the order is not producing is not to just wax-nostalgic and wait for the OTHER guy to pick up the slack...it's to do what Kurt Suzuki and Jack Cust are doing and just shut the mouth, bear down, make some adjustments and get some hits yuorself. For some reason, it seems (at least from the outside) that no one is taking responsibility for communicating this to the rest of the team, which leads me to...

2. I think the culture that has been fostered in this clubhouse over the past few years has really made the "Oakland Brand" a difficult product to market, a boring team to follow and has hampered any ability for the organization to gain positive traction both on the field and off. THe culture I am talking about is one where Bob Geren, a nice guy to be sure and certainly a life-long "baseball man" that was a helluva minor league manager, turns into a "made man" without really being challenged or showing any results. It's the culture where everyone just kind of bumbles around (including the management team) crossing fingers and hoping the best for/planning post-season runs on chronically injured players...and when those players STAY injured, everyone just throws up their arms and no one bats an eye...

3.I sense just an overall disturbing trend that a lot of offensive players that have been brought up through the A's system seem to just stop learning at the major league level and hit a wall or plateau (with the lone exception in recent years being Kurt Suzuki). Guys like Barton, Buck and now Sweeney, who all had solid minor league numbers and had flashes of brilliance at the major league level, just seem to stop making adjustments, or shoring up weaknesses or building up strengths. I really think of this as a major organizational/cultural problem in Oakland. Players CAN'T stop learning at the major league level...if they do, this organization is doomed. It just seems like less and less importance is being placed on the major league coaching staff, especially on the offensive side, when players are just thrown out there everyday without a lot of guidance when they are clearly not up to the task...

4. Regarding Clubhouse Culture: I think Jason Giambi is really doing his best to be the father figure and take the pressure off the young guys and be a good role model. But it's not 2001 anymore. Giambi still has a little pop and can work a walk and get hit by a few pitches, but he's not the dynamic player/personality that he once was - the type of human tonic that a dormant offense needsto burst out of it's slumber. I think it's nearly impossible to really put a price on "dynamism" and clubhouse presence and whatnot, but I will say that it would sure be nice right now to have Nick Swisher on this team. It's nice having Ryan Sweeney too and Gio still has "upside" and DLS might put it all together now that he's healthy, but I still think there's a sneaky, lingering, lasting price to be paid when an organization moves on from a proven leader and quality individual...

4. Just overall, I would like to see more accountability in this organization. I'm not going to go all off on a rant on a person by person basis. I would just hope that everyone in the organization, from Lew Wolff down, at some point this year, will take responsbility for their own actions, deal with the adversity they've been pitted-against and play the hand they've been dealt...get off the matt, chip away at the issues and slowly but surely work out a plan that works more often than not...instead of just waiting around for "someone else" to figure it all out for them.

A Few Observations of the Early Season

Taj Adib — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 01:12:39 -0000

1) I've been fairly mum on the possibility that Eric Chavez is truly, without-a-doubt, start-digging-the-grave "done" with being a productive player...well, I'm pretty close to making that concession after watching him play the past few weeks. I understand that Chavez indicated he would need a month or so to get his timing back to where he used to be at the plate, but I don't understand how he's supposed to get that timing back when he can't stay on the field for any lasting amount of time. His recent quip that he's "day to day, probably for the whole year" is classic Chavez...and I'm kind of annoyed by it now.

Nomar has been okay as a platoon partner for Chavez, but he's got his own issues and is clearly just a one-year stop-gap. I'd really like for the team to go out this coming off-season and get someone reliable to, at the very least, play 3rd against EVERY left-handed starter out there, since Chavez is completely useless against lefties at this point. Maybe Beane can swing a deal for Kevin Kouzmanoff (hacktastic/no patience, but good pop against lefties and decent fielder) or could convince Miguel Tejada to come back to be a utility infielder.

Long-term, I'm glad that Adrian Cardenas has gotten off to a fast start at Midland. By most accounts, he won't be a major league-caliber shortstop, but many scouts seem to think he could handle 3rd base defensively and while he likely won't be a really big-time slugger, he seems to hit a lot of doubles and hit for a high-average against both righties and lefties. I'd take someone like that at 3rd base any day of the week for the next few years, please...

2) I find it fascinating that Beane has assembled such a strikeout-averse starting rotation (top 4 starters are averaging 4.37 strikeouts per 9 innings) while at the same time he assembled such a high-strikeout bullpen group (top 6 relievers are averaging 9.17 strikeouts per 9 innings). There's no doubt that the starters as a whole are a lot more likely to pitch to contact as a matter of efficiency, but even so, that's a pretty big discrepency between the two groups. Does Beane look for completely different characteristics in relievers than he does in starters? Or is it just simply a matter of pitchers doing what's best for the situation: starters trying to last deep into games by forcing early contact and relievers just trying to blow everyone away while they have the chance?

3) I really hope that Beane finds a way to keep Jack Cust for the next couple of years (he's under team control, but arbitration eligible, through 2011). As we've seen the last few seasons, it takes a special type of hitter to not only produce in Oakland but to thrive there and those types of hitters don't exactly come along very often...but Jack Cust has shown that he's exactly that type of hitter, with or without "protection" from the rest of the lineup. He's always gonna strikeout a lot, but he's also pretty much a lock for 100 walks and 25 homers and an .800+ OPS. He also STAYS HEALTHY. I'm not sure I would commit to a multi-year deal with Jack, but I'd really like the team to go year-to-year with him and just pencil him in as the DH for the next 2+ years.

4) Speaking of possible long-term deals, I'm wondering if the team will start discussing such a deal with Kurt Suzuki over the course of the next calendar year. Along with Cust, Suzuki has pretty much fueled the A's offense early in this season. He's gotten better with the bat every year he's been a major leaguer and by all accounts has been a fine reciever, defender and guide for the pitching staff. He's also an Iron Man behind the plate. In my book, he's really the only "young" player really worth a long-term deal, but I'm curious what people think he's worth. He's eligible for arbitration after 2010 and then free agency after 2013. The team has the fragile Landon Powell backing-up Suzuki and a couple of intriguing, but hardly "can't miss", prospects in the pipeline such as Josh Donaldson, Anthony Recker, Petey Paramore and Joel Galarrage...so I'm wondering if the team would make a move to buy-out all of Suzuki's arbitration years sometime in the next year or two. Maybe something like a 3-year/$10 million extension to kick in after 2010? $1.5 million in 2011, $3.5 million in 2012 and $5 million in 2013?

Roster Headaches Coming Soon?

Taj Adib — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 01:22:56 -0000

At this point, with Duchscerer on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Gio and Devine battling injuries and no one else really available either on this team, on other teams or on the free agent market, it's becoming obvious that the A's best strategy to put a winning team on the field to begin 2009 is to roll the dice and open the season with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill in the rotation and Andrew "Throwin' Zeroes" Bailey in the bullpen. I think the decision to get those guys up to the big leagues is a fairly easy one at this point and probably has already been made by A's brass.

But what's not easy, or what's not going to be easy, is finding a way to fit them all on the 40-man roster, since all three are currently non-roster players. The A's have done some 40-man roster trimming in the past few months, but the list is currently at 39 and, by glancing on the names on it, there doesn't seem to be any more obvious name(s) to cut.

In the short-term, I'm guessing the team could get around the logjam by placing Duchscherer on the 15-day or 60-day DL, thus opening up one 40-man roster temporarily. The same could be said for Devine if he were to need surgery or more rest and rehab after this latest elbow fiasco. However, the DL-route is clearly a stop-gap/temporary solution at best, and if any of these guys (Anderson/Cahill/Bailey) prove that they can open the season and last in the majors from here on out, a more permanent spot would need to be opened up sooner rather than later anyways.

All of the pitchers currently on the A's 40-man seem fairly youthful and useful to the major league team at this point, so I don't really see anybody that could be sacrificed from that area (possibly Jeff Gray, but he's reportedly looked pretty good this Spring). On the positional side of the equation, the list opens up a few possibilies to me:

2B Eric Patterson: Eric seems like a fantastic 5-tool Triple-A player, but kind of a man without a real niche at the major league level. I'm sure given 500 at-bats in a season he could put up decent numbers for 2nd basemen...however, he's not nearly good enough defensively at 2nd base to make it worth a team's while to give him that many at-bats and he's certainly not powerful enough to handle left-field full time. He may need a change of scenery (San Diego perhaps?) to get those at-bats and the opportunity. With Crosby, Pennington and Petit all ahead of him on the 2nd base depth chart in Oakland, he's not going to get that opportunity here.

OF Javier Herrera: I'm sure Javy still has some "tools" and "projection" left, but let's face it, he's not going to be up in Oakland any time soon and he's lost a LOT of the luster that once made him a top prospect. His hamstring issues have likely sapped him of the speed that once made center field a possibility for him and his once cannon-like arm has been somewhat mitigated in its effectiveness after he succumbed to Tommy John surgery a bit ago. So, at this point, he's a 24-year old left-field prospect without a lot of refinement to his game and only 12 at-bats above Double-A to his credit. With Denorfia, Davis and Cunningham already on the 40-man roster, I don't think the team will really miss Javy that much...

OF Ben Copeland: Copeland's case is interesting. He was having a nice spring as a Rule V draftee, but really didn't have any chance of sticking with the A's past Spring Training. Then, he got pretty banged up on an outfield play and now he's having all sorts of medical trouble. At this point, one of three things can happen with him: a) he gets offered back to the Giants and they take him back, b) the A's work out a trade/arrangement with Giants to keep him in the Oakland system while he rehabs his injury(s) or c) the A's put him on the DL right now and he sticks with A's. In any case, a spot will open on the 40-man, at least temporarily.

Others will probably say, "Just trade Crosby to open a spot" or "DFA Hannahan." I would discourage that line of thinking since the big league team has a fairly brittle infield and both Hannahan and Crosby bring a little versatilty, semblance of health and nominal defensive value to the table at least; while, in my opinion, neither Patterson nor Herrera can claim to do so at this time.

The A's need to make moves, that much is sure, just to simply get these guys on the roster so that they can even pitch in the big leagues. However, with an injury-filled veteran corps, the team can't sacrifice that much depth in order to open up these roster spots. I wouldn't recommend that the A's do the work around "DL Duke, Devine and/or Copeland" and see what Cahill, Anderson and Bailey can do with a few weeks or 60 days and then make more permanent roster cuts once those DL-ed guys are healthy. I'm thinking a few guys might be on the chopping block real soon...what do you all think?