SB Nation User Blog: Taylor H

Soccer Statistics

Taylor H — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:18:06 -0000

I'm a pretty big soccer fan. My little sister plays Tier 1 select soccer, so I'm constantly getting to watch high level (youth) football. But, honestly, I'm not very knowledgeable about player evaluation in soccer, especially of the statistical variety. I understand possession time and goal/assist tallies, but I'm well aware that the eyes of the onlooker can sometimes deceive.

Is there anywhere I could learn or read about soccer stats (soccermetrics)? Would be much appreciated!

Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly.

Taylor H — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:34:38 -0000

I wrote this.

I'll take it down if y'all think it's stupid.

________________

This summer, Major League Baseball revealed its newest statistical plaything, hit f/x, which records the speed of batted balls. This technological toy may not exactly revolutionize the way the game is played, but it does add a critical variable to a hitter’s value – how hard he can hit. Now teams can determine which batters truly hit the stuffing out of the ball.

Strangely, this hit-tracker data seems to go against conventional baseball wisdom. Hit-tracker results have recently revealed that players with lower batting averages actually hit the ball harder than those with high batting averages. Does that mean that to achieve a high degree of success, a hitter needs to hit the ball softer that he otherwise would? Looking beyond the numbers, we discover that this conundrum is an issue of logic.

It is generally accepted in the literary world that plot and character vary inversely; rarely do we find a book with an in-depth plot and intricately developed characters. Similarly, in the world of baseball, speed varies inversely with power; there are exceptions, but it is unusual for a power-hitter to steal 20 bases in a season, or for a lanky speed-demon to hit 30 homers.

A substantial percentage of the batters with batting averages over .300 in the 2009 season had around 15-18 infield hits. There were outliers, of course, but the trend stuck for the most part. Let’s take a look at how some of baseball’s top hitters (in terms of batting average) might have fared without that extra bit of speed. Obviously this is not completely indicative of how they actually would have done, but it’s an interesting experiment.

A table:

	# of Infield Hits	Batting Average	Batting Average Minus Percentage of Infield Hits
Ichiro Suzuki	50	.352	.273
Jacoby Ellsbury	26	.301	.259
Pablo Sandoval	16	.330	.302
Denard Span	23	.311	.271
Jason Bartlett	15	.320	.290
David Wright	13	.307	.283
Scott Posednik	27	.304	.254
Skip Schumaker	13	.303	.278
Hanley Ramirez	17	.342	.312
Nyjer Morgan	15	.307	.275
Derek Jeter	22	.334	.299
Erick Aybar	16	.312	.280

Notice that this trend only serves to prove the importance of speed in the batting averages of players who have an abundance of it. David Wright and Pablo Sandoval still retain high batting averages despite when we subtract a portion of their speed.

Because power-hitters tend to be physically larger and thus slower than other hitters, they don’t beat out as many groundballs as quicker hitters, decreasing their batting average by approximately 17/550, or almost .031. For example, Wladimir Balentien, formerly of the Seattle Mariners, had the fastest average batted ball speed during April 2009 (according to Matthew Carruth http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/6/6/901100/mariner-hitters-batted-ball-speeds), but a paltry average. Ichiro, on the other hand, had the lowest average batted ball speed but his usual high average during that stretch.

In reality, batters that hit the ball hard often aren’t quick enough to reach first base on a weakly hit ground ball, knocking a significant amount off their average.

Contact rates actually player a larger role in this issue than does speed. Players, like the aforementioned Balentien, who swing for the fences all the time usually have low contact rates. And you’re certainly not going to get a hit if the ball doesn’t leave the catcher’s mitt. Here I generalize quite a bit – not all power hitters are free-swingers, but those that do see that batting averages drop quite a bit despite hitting for power and a high hit f/x value.

What does this mean? Honestly, I don’t know. Infield hits are flawed because in using them to make a point, one must assume that the official made the right call (error vs. hit). Plenty of power hitters are disciplined.

Any thoughts?

Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

Taylor H — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:15:16 -0000

A table:

	# of Infield Hits	Batting Average	Batting Average Minus Percentage of Infield Hits
Ichiro Suzuki	50	.352	.273
Jacoby Ellsbury	26	.301	.259
Pablo Sandoval	16	.330	.302
Denard Span	23	.311	.271
Jason Bartlett	15	.320	.290
David Wright	13	.307	.283
Scott Podsednik	27	.304	.254
Skip Schumaker	13	.303	.278
Hanley Ramirez	17	.342	.312
Nyjer Morgan	15	.307	.275
Derek Jeter	22	.334	.299
Erick Aybar	16	.312	.280

Because power-hitters tend to be physically larger and thus slower than other hitters, they don’t beat out as many groundballs as quicker hitters, decreasing their batting average by approximately 17/550, or almost .031. For example, Wladimir Balentien, formerly of the Seattle Mariners, had the fastest average batted ball speed during April 2009 (according to Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/6/6/901100/mariner-hitters-batted-ball-speeds), but a paltry average. Ichiro, on the other hand, had the lowest average batted ball speed but his usual high average during that stretch.

In reality, batters that hit the ball hard often aren’t quick enough to reach first base on a weakly hit ground ball, knocking a significant amount off their average.

Any thoughts? I'm really not sure what to take from this.

The Epic Confrontation Between Cheesesteaks and Cheesecakes

Taylor H — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 04:45:34 -0000

I wrote this Fall Classic Preview for my blog, Sodomojo.com, from a fairly objective standpoint.

But something struck me. Who are the Rays faithful going to root for? True, the Phillies are far more palatable than pure Evil, but they did beat the Rays in last year's World Series.

So I'm curious to hear who you'll all be rooting for, and your motives for doing so.

But, in any case, here's my article.

Essentially, this is David vs. Goliath.

The Lovable Losers take on the Perennial Winners. Good vs. Evil. Fail against Win. Cheesesteaks vs. Cheesecakes.

Phillies vs. Yankees.

Both teams have stayed put in their respective cities and with their respective names for over 100 years. Both teams play in high-class cities with music and culture and food and tradition. Both teams have rabid fans and tiny, homer-friendly ballparks. But the similarities end abruptly there.

The Yanks were 9349-7144 through 2007. 27 World Series Banners hang from their stadium rafters. They always have money – lots of it – so the best free agents always go to New York. The list of Yankees stars reads like a list of who’s -who in baseball history: Babe Ruth, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, etc. The Yankees have always been good at winning, and they show no signs of slowing down.

The Phillies, on the other hand, recently became the first team in Major League history to lose 10,000 games. Their total franchise win-loss percentage is around .450, and though the Phightin’ Phils have been around for over 120 years, they have but 2 World Series championships. The list of Phillies stars reads like a list of baseball players, most of which you’ve never heard of, which is probably because the Phils haven’t had many stars. The Phillies have always been good at losing, but the recent Phillies teams have provided hope for a historically awful franchise.

But this time, David has backup.

Backup, or slingshot upgrades if you prefer, comes in the form of Cliff Lee, J.A. Happ, J-Roll, and plenty of others. When’s the last time the Phillies has a second baseman with a +12.0 UZR and .402 wOBA? How about a first baseman with a 4.9 WAR and 45+ homers annually? Or a 26-year old flamethrower with a 3.79 career tRA, 8.38 career K/9, and still room for improvement? Oh, and an aging Pedro can’t hurt (well, he can, but 7 2-hit innings in the NLCS didn’t hurt his case).

Goliath is still a ferocious opponent. The Yankees will outslug you, outpitch you, and outcash you until you shrivel up and sob for George Steinbrenner to have mercy on your soul. They’ve got A-Rod, Matsui, Jeter, Damon, Swisher, and Teixiera. Those six combined for 169 homers this season. And then Goliath bought some AK’s. As if the Yanks weren’t good enough already, CC Sabathia (3.39 FIP and .233 BAA) and AJ Burnett (8.48 K/9 and .248 BAA), hopped on the I Heart NY bandwagon by signing 7-year 161 million and 5-year 82.5 million contracts respectively after the 2008 season. True, the Yanks don’t have much in the way of defense, but, sadly, it doesn’t even come close to balancing out their lethal lineup and somewhat-lethal pitching staff.

So this version of David and Goliath has a few twists, but it remains, at its core, the winningest team in major league baseball history versus the losingest. The Yanks will presumably send Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettitte up against Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Pedro Martinez.

I don’t know about you, but I’m pulling for David. Even if he does have some firepower.

I just have no idea what this headline is supposed to entail.

Taylor H — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:29:00 -0000

I just have no idea what this headline is supposed to entail.

The Brilliance of Jack Zduriencik

Taylor H — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 05:36:59 -0000

The single most important aspect of sustaining a successful business is to distribute value equally amongst one’s assets.

The single most important aspect of sustaining a successful baseball organization is to distribute value equally amongst one’s assets.

Sense a similarity?

It ain't easy being a playa.

Jack Zduriencik is single-handedly proving that the “big-name free agent” is an inessential part of a winning baseball team. In fact, I would argue that GMZ is proving that the “big-name free agent” often causes more harm than good to a baseball team because by investing in one particular – and potentially spectacular – player, a high degree of risk is involved. Two problems are inherent in placing a significant amount of a team’s total value in one player.

___1) Injury: If the player gets hurt and has to miss a large amount of time recovering, the team as a whole loses a disconcertingly big amount of value (think ‘09 Chicago Cubs).

___2) Sporadic lack of production: If the player suddenly stops being productive for one reason or another, you’ve just bought yourself an albatross, presumably for a regrettably long period of time. (Note: this phenomenon is generally due to some overlooked factor like age.)

Exhibit A (The 2009 Mariners): On June 21st, with the M’s in the thick of the playoff race, Yuniesky Betancourt decides to collide with slick-fielding Endy Chavez in midair, knocking Chavez out for the season. Ryan Langerhans, Bill Hall, and Michael Saunders step in and make us forget Endy ever existed in a Mariners uniform. Later in the season, Adrian Beltre misses 6 weeks, and M’s fans are ready to put themselves on suicide watch. Fortunately, Z pulls Jack Hannahan out of a hat, who turns out a Beltre-esque UZR and even adds a respectable .311 OBP to boot. Then, newly acquired Jack Wilson injures his heel. No problem: His “J Wilson” counterpart, Josh, produces at a similar level both offensively and defensively during Jack’s absence.

The Seattle Mariners are going to be a successful baseball organization for years to come because Jack Zduriencik spreads value amongst an entire team instead of clustering it in several outstanding players.

(PS: If this is not LL-worthy, tell me, and I'll take this down.)

Robot Umpires: a legitimate proposition?

Taylor H — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 01:59:58 -0000

I'm mainly hoping for a response from RJ, but the rest of you should feel free to respond with your thoughts.

How would you feel if umpires were completely and totally removed from the game of baseball? Would this be a good thing or a bad thing overall? I wrote something about it a while ago on the subject (http://sodomojo.com/2009/09/24/the-plusses-and-minuses-of-robot-umpires/), but I remain curious about the prospect of RoboUmps.

Discuss.

Stolen from RJ: Baseball announcer stats

Taylor H — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 06:46:55 -0000

Stolen from RJ: Baseball announcer stats

Dave Niehaus is in the upper third of chattiest announcers.

Cockpunch Wars --- A New OT (08/28/09)

Taylor H — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:51:35 -0000

*The previous off-topic thread has surpassed the 750 comment mark, so I have decided to make a new one.*

The Day of Judgment will soon be upon us. The Mariners are 66-62, and must win at least three out of the next four games to bring sweet, sweet justice down on Robert's nads.

If you're not a supporter of Robert's reign in September, perhaps you can find solace in the fact that the Mariners are playing the Royals, who are terrible. Unfortunately, this is a .500 ballclub, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2-2 record.

In other news, Pearls Before Swine is still funny. (http://comics.com/pearls_before_swine/)

Additionally, the Mariners have replaced their "A New Day, A New Way" slogan with an Ichiro hits tally.

File this under "Bad news"

Taylor H — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:45:01 -0000

File this under "Bad news"

I guess it had to happen eventually.