SB Nation User Blog: Tdogg

Fearless 4th Quarter Prediction

Tdogg — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 16:48:21 -0000

I figured since I am officially the symbol of hope (figuratively and literally) , I would throw out my expectations for the remaining rat race in regards to the pale hose and Motown. It might be fun for others to join in. Even the pessimists are welcome. Note my predictions do not reflect the views or opinions of the editors of SSS….

The standings are as follows:

Detroit – 59-53

Ch Sox - 58-56 2 games back

Minn - 54-58 5 games back note….(Won the WS in 2010, 2011 & 2012)

ChiSox Schedule

1 @ Sea Rios sighting

3 @ Oak 2-2

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3 KC

3 Balt 4-2

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4 @ Bos

3 @ NY Peavy around here….

1 @ Min 3-5

Thru 9-1 9-9 +0

2 @ Min

1 @ Chc 1-2

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4 Bost

2 Oak 4-2

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Thru 9-9 14-13 +1

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3 @ KC

3 @ Sea 3-3

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3 KC

3 Min

3 Det 7-2 (9/27)

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3 @ Clev

3 @ Det 4-2

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Thru 10/4 28-20 +8 Final Record 86-76

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Detroit Schedule

2 @ Bos 1-1

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3 KC

3 Sea 4-2

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3 @ Oak

3 @ LAA 3-3

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4 TBay 2-2

Thru 8/31 10-8 +2

3 Clev 2-1

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3 @ TB

3 @ KC 2-4

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Thru 9/10 14-13 +1

4 Tor

3 KC 5-2

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3 @ Min

3 @ Clev

3 @ Chw 3-6

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4 Min

3 Chw 4-3

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Thru 10-4 26-24 +2 Final Record 85-77

Final Standings

Chi Sox 86-76 –

Detroit 85-77 1 game back

I did not try to work the numbers out to finish that way. I could just as easily see a 4-5 stretch for Detroit during that Min to Chi road trip instead of 3-6. I can also see it a few games the other way. Perhaps, another black out game maybe?

This team does frustrate the hell out of me (performance wise), but I like our chances and I’m pumped for the coming years….

Oops gotta go, boss man is coming…..

The June Files - "I Want to Believe," White Sox monthly review

Tdogg — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 04:55:24 -0000

Fox Mulder: Are you asking me to give up?
Dana Scully: No. No, I can't ask you to do that... But I can tell you I won't be coming home tonight.

Its that time of month again. By now you know the drill. A quick recap and a nice place to look at a few advanced stats in one place.

Not a huge fan of the X files sequel but I could not help but feel a lot like Mulder; confused, searching and wanting to believe.

Much like last month, the 2009 White Sox did their best to blow the season at the beginning of June. They were home for a 12 game stretch against Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit. It was time to make up serious ground. Wrong. They promptly put up a measly 4-8 record during the 2 weeks dropping a critical Detroit series 2-3 in which every game seemed winnable.

Here we go again. June 1-12 team batting line .220/.308/.358. What the??? I mean its June. Time for Greg Walker's crew to do their summer dance all across poor opposing pitchers. Last year the home team slugged a resounding .300/.361/.521 in June. This year we were greeted to 3 shutouts in 4 days, crushing the team's momentum and increasing the number of hits to MLBTrade Rumors/WhiteSoxRumor.

Could anything save us or the team? It was June 12th and the team was 6 games under .500/6.5 games out. How about a trip back on the road? Enter Milwaukee. The first game pretty much followed suit of the previous homestand. Decent starting pitching and not much hitting. Bullpen implodes, game over. Yawn. The next day was a Fox broadcast. Jose Contreras followed up a brilliant return start from the minors against Detroit with an equally impressive one in the land of Cheese and thus began the 2nd half of the month resurgence, which is becoming all too common.

The offense from June 13-30 put up a .287/.366.511 line. Now that's more like it. Okay so the team is a little like Sybil.

But when it was all said done a crappy home stand had resurrected a Count and called up a Savior. Fields lost his starting job and Wilson Betemit lost major league employment all together (thank goodness.)

What should the Sox do? That's the million dollar question. No secret I have screamed to Southside heaven the team should buy. Cheat has covered it. Jim over at Sox Machine has covered it.

It doesn't matter here. Someone else can and will write the final trade entry and evaluate future trades till we are all blue in the face. Today is about the June and ytd numbers. Numbers that leave the White Sox 4 games out.

record 39-38

RS 343

RA347

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Offensive

May numbers .258/.340/.444

YTD .257/.330/.416 compared to 08 at this time .262/.336/.437

.746 Team OPS (11th in the AL)

31.8 Team VORP (11th in the AL)

Early June did not work out too well. Its hard to believe the same team with 3 shut outs early, roughed up Cliff Lee to end the month. In the end there was some progress as the team moved up 1 whole spot (yea) in team OPS. Some things did return to normal. They mashed 41 homers in June (tied for the most) to move up to 7th overall. July gives the boys only 12 home dates. Is that good thing? Their road OPS is .791 compared to .701 at home.

RF Dye- .295/.363/.570 How can you not love JD? My heart wants him to retire a White Sox. VORP leader at 22.3 with an EQA of .302. Everyone else is here. Plenty of scouts looking as he seems to be the popular subject.

DH Thome- .241/.397/.492 Still chugging along. A buddy in my class Thursday night told me he wanted to get rid of Thome because he was only hitting .241 (eyes roll.) Interleague is pretty much over (I know 1 Cub game left), so he doesnt have to ride the pine. Seems healthy. Stay that way.

1b Konerko-.286/.341/.487 Battled thumb issues and dipped a little but doing his job to complete the Sox 3 headed monster. I am used to Konerko improving in the 2nd half. Its really just perception as his career numbers are .830 before/.859 after. I suspect with the thumb and his age the best we can hope for is that he hangs on. That and continuing to pick up throws in the dirt......

Q - A spot will forever be reserved for him. He is afterall Q.

2b Getz- .248/.306/.346 Still nothing to write home about but he did improve. June OPS was .717

3B Beckham the Savior- .267/.353/.387 Oh boy. Ozzie wasn't thrilled with a home call up or BlackJack. But the numbers back him up. Beckham raked away from the home pressure. OPS 1.189.

SS Alexei- .265/.319/.398 He still doesn't entirely understand its okay to take pitches with Pods on 1st but with a.826 OPS in the 2nd slot I won't complain. 7 homers in June and 10 walks. He had 18 all last season.Somewhere Joe Sheehan and Keith Law cry.

OF Pods- .313/.368/.411 What the hell can I say? I mentioned earlier I just hope the deal with the devil is for the whole season. Seriously he and Alexei have formed a competent 1-2. Been awhile since you heard the leadoff blah blah huh?

C AJ- .294/.327/443 Umm AJ, you now walk less than Alexei. Just saying.

OF BAnderson- .244/.328/.325 Dude where is the power? It took me a long time to let go of Rex Grossman. I find myself in a similar situation. Im sorry I can't defend him anymore. The defense is not "THAT" great. He definitely should lose abs vs right handers and is prime target number 1 for upgrade.

Bench Fields- After losing his job Fields put up a .903 OPS in a limited role. Power and patience. Hmmm is that his future? Better as a reserve? I would trade him now.

There are plenty of good trends from an offensive standpoint, that said, a .701 OPS at home simply will not do. A return to just average home production would be very nice.

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Pitching

Team ERA/FIP 4.05 (5th in AL)/4.16 (5th also)

K/9-7.20, BB/9-3.37 & HR/9- 1.05 (rising but still avg which is okay considering the park)

Buerhle ERA 3.26/FIP4.20

Danks    ERA 4.08/FIP 4.07

Floyd      ERA 4.12/FIP3.65

Contrea ERA 5.19/FIP 4.37
Richard ERA 4.48/FIP 4.68
Colon     ERA 4.23/FIP5.65

39 Quality starts (tied for 5th in AL)

The starting pitchers remain very good lately. Its been the team's rock. Since that Richard start in Toronto the starting staff has a 3.04 ERA for 41 games. For June the total staff put up a 3.58 ERA.

Buerhle- Unfortunately he walked more batters then we were used to this season. Over 3 a game in June, but nothing over the top. Still having a great season and likely all star. A 6 WAR is unlikely but 5 is in reach and he continues to earn his contract.

Danks- Great June. Seemed to put things together. Raised HR rate but limited batters to a .193 avg in the month. If he could only play the Cubs every day.......

Floyd- Damn. We knew Floyd had some bad luck in the first part of the season in regards to hits. We also knew he was walking too many batters. Fine. He just just decided to eliminate them both (lol.) A .94 whip in June and pitching like a number 1. Okay let's not get carried away, but as Jim pointed out at Sox Machine:

"Here's what does it for me:

IP H BB K ERA WHIP

IP H BB K ERA WHIP

76 1/3 52 21 60 2.00 0.96

That line represents the combined Junes for Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Floyd saw Danks' seven shutout innings against the Cubs on Sunday and raised him two more outs, blanking the Indians for 7 2/3 innings in the White Sox's 6-3 victory over Cleveland."

Man that's good.

Contreras- Jose asked to be sent to the minors so he could figure some things out. Mission accomplished. 4 starts and most of us don't know what to think. The guy had no control when he left. Now he walks 1 a game? I expected Contreras to give the Sox a good stretch. How long will this last? June ERA 2.15/FIP 3.35.

Richard- Saved himself a little yesterday but wasn't good at all in June 6.04 ERA and failed to eat innings. If he stays in the rotation (he is likely to continue the pattern.) The good news is we are talking about the 5th starter. Perspective Tdogg, perspective.

The Big 4

Jenks         ERA 3.21/FIP 4.01 9.0k/9 82.6%strand

Linebrink ERA 2.17/FIP 4.11 9.31k/9 82.4% strand

Dotel          ERA 3.23/FIP 3.83    11.45 k/9 81.8% strand

Thornton    ERA 2.93/FIP 2.98 10.86 k/9 81.8% strand

The overall stats are fine but June was not kind to the group. Much of it was regression to the mean but it still sucks. Thorton became human. FIPs are up a bit again. The K rates remain solid. Strand rates decreased. We noticed. Runs definitely crossed the plate late in games. Linebrink's line is misleading and not in a good way. He mildly improved this last week but a 1.030 OPS against in tie ball games is insane. For a 4 million reliever that is. I don't want to overeact because as I said regression was expected. The starting staff limits their work and they should be good to go for the 2nd half, assuming no trades. Sox Machine has great thoughts on the bullpen.

The rest-

DJ Carrasco- ERA 2.96/FIP 2.76 That bases empty stat is huge. Somebody email that to Ozzie.

Gobble- ERA 8.18/FIP 7.41 Last month I wrote, "My mom said if you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all." rinse, repeat. And don't leave him in for an inning. Goodness.

Poreda- ERA 0.00/FIP 1.84 Should he really be here now?

Lately chinks in the armor but still a good bullpen

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Defense

.692 defensive efficiency.

8th in AL

Overall team

UZR -10.3

UZR/150 -2.2

Here is the team summary.

Konerko (3.7) continues to be the top White Sox defender. Lately he even passes Chicago Pete's eyeball test. I know I've taken some grief by pointing out the White Sox defense had improved a little and been decent. They proceeded the same day to make 5 errors. Ouch. Ozzie finally snapped on Alexei who's tended to become far too lazy too often. This team makes way too many errors and giving up an average of .5 run a game in unearned runs is not cute. But (always a but huh?), the efficiency improvement is real and definitely contributes to pitcher success. Keep in mind, prior to improvement the defense was probably castrophic. Minor note Getz held steady.

Fangraphs has its 1/2 year avgs up.

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Team Base running.

Per BP the team’s Equivalent Base Running Runs (EqBrr)

The White Sox rank 17th with an team score of-2.66615.

Team leader Getz 3.18 (very good.) No one else is over 1, though Pods is close with +.96

Team anchors Thome -2.72 & Anderson -2.54 (again no excuse for this and further reason I'm off his bandwagon.)

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A week and half ago I felt the Sox would be 3 out at the end of June and even by the time Tampa rolls in.

I don't think this team repeats the weak start stuff this month. Critical stretch against the Central division. Let it begin.

"Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in" White Sox May Review

Tdogg — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 00:47:35 -0000

Folks seemed to dig the April review, so I thought I'd press my luck and offer a quick recap of May/ up to date. Again I don't expect you to become suddenly more enlightened but not everyone feels like looking for advanced stats.

The title speaks for itself as the palehose pay homage to Mr. Pacino in Godfather III.

After the Toronto sweep on May 18th even the most hardened Sox fan had to feel at least mildly concerned with what was going on with the team.

Consider the first 15 games of May.

5/1-5/17:

The team batted .227/.287/.344 Wow. I have heard of bad streaks but that line makes Juan Pierre look like Superman. The starting pitching during that frame, 2-9 7.29 ERA. Take that. It added up to a 4-11 start to the month (how did we win 4) and visions of 07 and a Baseball Prospectus "I told you so."

Well time to go all in on Larry's fine minor league threads. Time to count down to training camp and watch our future franchise QB sling the pill. Time to kill and have a fire sale right? Wrong.

In the final game of the Toronto series, Clayton Richard made his 2nd start of the season. It was quality start, one in which the team tied the game in 8th on a Thome blast, only to lose that same inning from a Dotel breakdown. Dye was ejected for throwing his helmet and Guillen was also given the heave ho.

"I just talked to the coaching staff and asked them, 'What can we do?'" Guillen said. "There's nothing really you can do, just keep playing and being positive. I don't want any of my coaches being negative. We have to prepare every day, come here every day and believe in those [players]. And make them believe in themselves."

Not exactly Knute Rockne. However the start proved to be a turning point. Much like last year after a 14-17 start the Canadian bacon and ass kicking seemed to wake up the starting pitching just in time for home cooking and the 2nd half of the month.

5/18-5/30:

Batting .282/.346/.444

Starting Pitching 2.09 ERA 7-2

What a crazy month. There was almost this little deal for a pitcher name Peavy. The same day the team lost 20-1. 20 internet strangers met up and watched Floyd impersonate a major league pitcher and channel Buerhle on a Friday night against the Bucs. On the road the team put up a 16 spot and beat Zack Greinke. And somewhere along the way the team got its act together to salvage a season (at least for now) and finish the month in 2nd 4 games out. We are shall I say, pulled back in...

record 24-25

RS 212

RA 226

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Offensive

May numbers .252/.314/.389 .

YTD .257/.324/.400 compared to 08 at this time .263/.332/.448

.724 Team OPS (12th in the AL)

-6.1 Team VORP (12th in the AL)

The early May nosedive definitely took the team off last year's pace for output. The 08 team had already turned the corner in route to an above avg offensive year. That said there does seem to be recent life. A couple weeks ago the team was dead last in AL OPS. The common saying about the team heating up in the summer should hold at least some truth. June gives the boys 18 home games.

DH Thome- .256/.387.489 Last month I was asking if Thome had finally fallen off the cliff. I guess not (when will we learn?) He has gotten his health together and swing. Luckily they don't penalize for being the slowest runner in MLB (okay Konerko is slower but Thome has the heel...) VORP leader at 10.7.

RF Dye- .277/.339/.554 How can you not love JD? Slight slip in BA but the power is there.

1b Konerko-.309/.359/.497 Completing the 3 headed monster. The top 3 Sox hitters are scary close in production right now.

Q Superman- .229/.325/.458 No he is not dead yet. He is however dealing with an injury that has him DL'd and contributed to a dreadful May. How he deals with the painful plantar fasciitis is key. The team has to have his bat. His BABIP is still very low .208.

2b Getz- .248/.309/.307 & 3B Fields- .244/.311/.335 Ugh. Both were a pleasant surpise in April. Both were disappointments in May (.518 & .566 OPS.) Seemed to find some sticks at the end of the month when our saviour was mentioned as a possible replacement. You can read an excellent summary of Beckham and the other baby faces over at Sox Machine. How this plays out will be very interesting. Bets on Gordon cracking the lineup by the end of June?

SS Alexei- .253/.300/.337 Believe it or not thats a huge improvement. Like last year he seems to be heating up. Added bonus 9 Stolen bases this year. Seems comfortable in the 2nd slot .333/.395/.410.

OF Pods- .297/.333/.376 I want to dog him out, I really do. But for now I can't. WTGTD be damned Pods has been a decent ball player since being called up. He still can't steal worth crap 3 sbs/3 caught, but he has seemed to provide stababilty to the lineup and punch with his new softball walking start stance. Will it last? Probably not but it is fun while it last.

C AJ- .299/.331/.435 Aj remains AJ

OF BAnderson- .275/.353/.352 also returned from injury. Would like to see more power but .700 OPS from him is all we hope for and he is 27.

Health remains the biggest question as the team enters June and tries to get back on offensive pace. After all the team is only 10th in HRs in the AL, WTF?

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Pitching

Team ERA/FIP 4.33 (5th in AL)/4.16 (2nd)

K/9-7.03, BB/9-3.51 & HR/9- 0.92 (great so far)

Buerhle ERA 2.71/FIP 3.95

Danks    ERA 4.80/FIP 4.03

Richard ERA 3.38/FIP 4.09

Floyd      ERA 6.12/FIP 4.16

Colon     ERA 3.80/FIP 4.96

Contre   ERA 8.19/FIP 5.49

25 Quality starts (tied for 5th in AL)

The starting pitchers have been very good lately. 3 runs or less in 10 of the last 13 and twice giving up 4. We all know about the 20 spot. 2.39 ERA for them in that span.

Buerhle- Walking less people this year (1.63/per 9) which is really really good news. Looks to be on the way to a 5+ WAR season.

Danks- 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Unlike his mentor Danks walks are up back to the 07 level. Not good. Luckily his Ks are up which has cushioned the blow but the concentration needs to get better. Danks has all the skills and pitches to move to the upper tier. Will he use them?

Richard- After a subpar start in Cleveland, Richard has delivered 3 solid outings and touches 95 on the gun from time to time. Will he last or be traded? He's making it tough to take him out of the rotation.

Floyd- Nothing new here. Floyd holds his walks down, he does great. 4 free passes a game is maddening. His K's are also up. High ERA but solid FIP so we should continue to see a downward correction. He also has continued to decrease HRs but it is still early. Floyd has had bad luck his BABIP against is .346

C * C factory- Pot Pie odds? 50/50. Maybe wishful thinking. Colon has settled back to look like the 4 or 5 expected, but the end maybe near (still a good deal though). There is a reason KW is looking for pitching. Contreras pitched his way to triple A where he is trying to get it together. He pitches in the double header this week. At some point Contreras may give the White Sox 1 good run before taking his 10 million contract away for ever.

The Big 4

Jenks         ERA 3.00/FIP 4.50 7.5k/9 83%strand

Linebrink ERA 2.04/FIP 2.71   9.17k/9 88% strand

Dotel          ERA 1.04/FIP 3.68    10.38 k/9 97.1% strand

Thornton      ERA 1.80/FIP 2.46 12.15 k/9 89% strand

Again very solid. FIPs are up a bit but great K rates and strand%. One thing that stands out is Thorton and Dotel seem to be getting the high leverage work. I'm okay with that.

The rest-

DJ Carrasco- ERA 2.56/FIP 3.22 anyone noticed the solid year he has put together? DJ has been quietly doing his work under the radar.

Broadway- ERA 5.06/FIP 3.82 Traded.

Gobble- ERA 11.81/FIP 7.85 My mom said if you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all.

The White Sox have one of the better bullpens in baseball.

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Defense

.676 defensive efficiency.

12th in AL

Overall team

UZR -9.4

UZR/150 -3.5

I know we discussed last month how these small samples might now offer much. R.J. over at fangraphs does offer an interesting take. Though the data offers nothing from a predictive nature, there is still value in knowing what the players have done up to this point. Here is the summary page.

Alexei (3.7) and Konerko (3.2) continue to be the top White Sox defenders. The defense as a whole at least seems to have hit bottom and is now moving in the right direction. Getz (-4.2), Dye (-5.8) and Fields (-6.1) bring up the rear. The slightly improved defense has definitely helped the pitching, fueling the turn around.

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Team Base running.

Per BP the team’s Equivalent Base Running Runs (EqBrr)

The White Sox rank 18th with an aggregate score of -2.32.

Team leaders Getz 1.94 & Alexei 1.31

Team anchors Thome -1.58 & Fields -1.82 (again no excuse for this.)

Pods has actually provided negative value -.46.

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Well that's some of the highlights. Feel free to add stuff in the comments.

The late surge saved the month. Still I would give a C-.

I see Jim over at Sox Machine put up a June 1st so now what?

April’s Fool - Can we start the season now?

Tdogg — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 18:25:42 -0000

After yesterday’s win I thought it would be a good time to take a stab at summing up the month of April. Call it a state of the Southside (think we could get President Obama to give it?). I am by no means a wordsmith so most of this will just be the numbers. Numbers that make you go "meh."

Consider:

Record 11-10

RS 97

RA 98

Most games over or under .500 – 2

Longest winning streak and losing streak – 3

All that adds up to a 1st place tie and 4 teams separated by 1 whole game. May 1st equals a mulligan.

Offensive

As much as I want to begin with Superman and his quest to win the MVP that got away, a better starting point is perhaps the team’s captain. Contrary to popular belief before the season, Konerko is not dead yet. He’s picked right back up where he left off in the 2nd half of 08 and put up a solid .333/.376/.526 line. (Eye wink to Kenwo)

Coming into the season, the main concern was what to expect from center, 2b and an injury free Fields at third. Well, are you happy?

2b Getz- .340/.396/.404 limited sample because our guy can’t seem to stay healthy and somehow managed a few days off to the great L(K)illibridge but C’mon. How many articles have you seen about rushing Beckham lately?

3b Fields- .257/.360/.378 started hot but has come back to earth lately. Someone asked yesterday is his obp sustainable. Q behind him will help but striking out 32% of the time is still worrisome especially if you’re not launching the ball over the wall. On the other hand he has definitely shown speed (2 triples) and it’s not exactly hot out yet.

CF Wise, then BA gets his big chance - .288/.383/.327 Jim over at Sox Machine does a great job presenting the whole situation. It is interesting to see how this will play out in May with the injury. Getz’s competence at lead off took a lot of focus off what I felt was an insistence to lump CF and lead off into the same position. One thing is certain, we don’t want (K)illibridge or Anderson up top.

Q-Superman-Second coming- .253/.374/.587 I think it is safe to assume he has recovered from his injury huh? I think the slugging has surprised even the most loyal Q believer. The scary thing may be that he has a .193 BABIP. Wow. This is a man who gets angry, WHEN he hits a HR.

SS Alexei Ramirez - .214/.273/.286 has finally shown signs of life after a dismal start. We saw him start slow last year (.121/.147/.182) and heat up with warmer days. Contrary to Sheehan and Keith Law’s thoughts on our favorite hack, I expect the same.

The rest of significance

Dye .295/.333/.551 (no complaints)

Thome .218/.317/.455 (is the fall off the cliff finally here?)

AJ .254/.288/.327

Killibridge .146/.286/.195 (him leading off is like nails on a chalkboard. However the speed is real so he does have some use.)

Overall I want to be disappointed with the team’s offensive performance .261/.337/.413 but its difficult. At this point we kind of expect this and calls for Greg Walker’s head. Last April the team hit .241/.334/.411 in route to an above average offensive performance. We joke about all or nothing, but you’re not far off. Half of the team’s games have been blowouts (5+ runs either way.)

Looks like much of this will depend on surprise "health."

Pitching

Raise your hand if you thought the best starter thru the first month would be Bartolo Colon? Liar. Okay we can squabble about "best" but he has the lowest FIP 3.25 and has netted the most value wins .6/$2.9. What? There doesn’t appear to be a lot of mystery to Colon. His fastball is moving and above 90 mph. From time to time he’ll throw up a clunker but for a million dollars is there any question this was a sound investment? (I know 20/20)

Colon      ERA 4.15/FIP 3.5

Floyd       ERA 5.55/FIP 3.93

Buerhle    ERA 3.00/FIP 4.22

Danks      ERA 2.74/FIP 4.48

Contreras ERA 6.75/FIP 5.51

Team ERA 4.52 7/14 in AL

Quality Starts 12 tied for 2nd in AL

At the start of the season, most of us prayed for a combined 32-35 of league average starts from the C&C factory. Somewhere along the lines I was tabbed a PPB and attached to the international train. Its fair to assume "only" 32 starts from the two would be a disappointment at this point. The combination of hard work on Jose’s part and good Chicago Pizza on Colon’s part have both looking reasonable healthy in the hands of a very competent White Sox medical staff.

Danks - All set to write about his ascension to greatness and then he gets tattooed by the anemic Mariner offense. Kids. He nudges his mentor for team high pitcher VORP 9.3. and has continued the success of last year.

Buerhle- See past 8 years except 2nd half of 2006.

Floyd- Its funny how I haven’t seen a lot of crap about how Floyd’s FIP is the opposite this year from actual performance. We have said it ad nauseam now limit the walks and pay attention to the batters instead of base runners because your side step delivery sucks.

Contreras- Perhaps I was too optimistic for our bronze titan to start the season. It is after all a miracle that this guy is pitching so soon after his injury. The last start was encouraging but Count has to use his fork ball to be effective. I think I’d rather still see him then say Richard. The month of May will tell a lot.

The big 4

Jenks         2.24 ERA/4.18 FIP 5 saves

Linebrink   1.13 ERA/1.93 FIP

Dotel         0.00 ERA/2.58 FIP

Thornton    2.25 ERA/2.93 FIP

Not much to quibble with here. All have acceptable K rates (even Jenks is up) and strand rates (LOB%). For the most part hand over a lead in April and it’s a win.

The rest of significance

~~MacDougal~~ 12.46ERA/6.64 FIP launched and don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Richard 4.76 ERA/5.47 FIP up and down April but should be functional lefty this year with a few starts.

D.J. Carrasco 4.15 ERA/3.25 FIP wish he struck out more batters

Egbert 27.00 ERA/10.30 FIP is the inning over yet?

Defense

.674 defensive efficiency.

11th in AL

Overall team

UZR -4.9

UZR/150 -4.6

UZR/UZR 150 by position

1b 2.6/16.2 It’s not an illusion Konerko is playing a pretty good 1b

2b -1.7/-10.5 Things can change but I have been surprised at how poorly Getz has graded so far (-1.4 UZR)

SS 0.0/2.1 So far so good. About average. Ramirez does seem a little prone to lapses but I like his range and arm. He however can’t let hitting woes affect him in the field.

3b -2.2/-14.4 Uh oh. And it’s trending in the wrong direction with a greater sample. Did I really buy that Cora crap?

RF -.6/-3.9 This is higher because BA has played 5 above average games defensively there. Dye remains a liability.

LF -3.1/-.27.2 Yikes. Even Superman has kryptonite and apparently it’s a green sparkling glove enclosed in lead.

CF .1/3.3 Wise and Owens are the reason for the positive number, not BA. Maybe he should stop looking at the babes in the bleachers he’d do better. I expect his number to improve (-.7). Then again Pods is coming. Pods is coming.

C 22 SBs/1 caught stealing and cheats thinks he was safe. Lol. Okay its not all AJ’s fault but this is a joke right?

The defense was expected to be bad and lately it’s doing its best to live up to it. The team’s park dimensions helps from an outfield perspective but the infield better tighten up or we may see the 700th Ozzie eruption.

Other quick notes.

Team base running.

Per BP the team’s Equivalent Base Running Runs (EqBrr)

The White Sox rank 17th with an aggregate score of -0.59

Team leader is (K)illibridge .65 and Ramirez .62

Team anchors are Thome -1.12 (doh!) and BA -.42 (good call guys no excuse for this)

Compare that to the best team totals for Toronto 5.5 and the worst Atlanta -7.81

Last year end of April

W14-L13

134RS

109 RA

1st place by 1 game over Minnesota

In the spirit of the first 100 days grading for the president I will do the same for the team's first month. I give them a B to B- so far. How about you?

Indian season over?

Tdogg — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:11:56 -0000

Indian season over?

"So before burying the Indians with more than 95 percent of their season to play, allow us to present a few facts: Over the past 25 full seasons, 45 teams in Major League Baseball have begun their seasons 1-6 or worse. Of those 45, eight have finished the year with a better-than-average record. And of those eight, only one – the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies – made the postseason. In which they were promptly swept."

I always find these things amusing. But on the other hand its not like they are making the stuff up.........

Ask Detroit last year how much they laughed off their bad start.

Tout Wars Results and Fantasy (Alesay out does AROD!)

Tdogg — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:47:40 -0000

Tout Wars Results and Fantasy (Alesay out does AROD!)

AL Only and Mixed league finished. NL only today.

Anyway I figured its about time for another thread for fantasy for those with late drafts and altering lineups - pickups, etc.

I personally like this draft because they are current (not 4 months ago before to meet print deadlines) and most of the folks I respect. All auction of course but you can translate roughly for drafting.

Quick highlights
AL only league

1) Matt Berry of ESPN (one of the folks I DON"T respect) paid 27 bucks for our great Rameriz, inching the unsure AROD by $2 and $2 less than ROY Longoria. Of course some of this is position scarcity but I've noticed Alexei rising in ADP in general (many times over Q who went for $25). The point is many are really starting to feel Alexei may have a monster year in regards to counting stats. And with the way he bats with baseloaded I tend to agree (lol.) Seriously the love was flowing for him among several experts. Take that JRE!!!!

2) Tex went for $37

3)Wieters went for $9. Folks don't crazy over this guy, especially if you go year to year (no keepers) and especially in a mixed league.

4)CC $30 - AJBurnett $20 (screw the evil empire.)

5)Larry's favorite Justin went for $30 and his other Maggs went for $24 (cheap was the comment)

6)Holliday ONLY $28. That Oakland park really sucks.

7)Sam Walker (A closet White Sox fan I think) spent $6 bucks on babe magnet BA. Walker won last year largely on the strength of young bucks named Floyd and Danks. Who are those guys???? I still recommend his book Fantasyland (dirt cheap now) plenty of laugh out loud moments for an idiot spending a fortune to win a free league.

8) Big Papi down to $21

9) Danks high Sox starting pitcher for $13.

10) Fields and Crede $9 a piece

11) Carmona $4 ouch.

12) Sweeney $12

Complete Spreadsheet for AL only
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pO0IbKkxiVgsL6J5gGr_2eA

Anyway hopefully a few folks can add who they really like or don't like this year. If not I'll continue to add posts and ramble on to myself!

MLB Trade Rumors take on offseason

Tdogg — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 19:22:27 -0000

MLB Trade Rumors take on offseason

Standard addition, subtraction and then prediction

Rival Zips (Cleveland Indians)

Tdogg — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 17:46:31 -0000

Rival Zips (Cleveland Indians)

Wow what a difference a year makes......
Important off season for the Tribe as they attempt to "fill" certain holes. No doubt that talent still exist for the mistake by the lake but I think the point remains that the Central is very much a winnable division and even if trimming payroll is part of the plan, KW has to feel pretty decent.

Man I just wish we had gotten more for Swisher or not given up on him yet.

How did the projection systems do?

Tdogg — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:40:19 -0000

How did the projection systems do?

In case anyone missed this on hard ball times yesterday. Their slant on the prediction performance (I say their because the other systems will also cherry pick a few filtered measurements in their favor). Just something to keep in mind as we await projections for next year.

A look back at the 2008 season and predictions

Tdogg — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 17:39:03 -0000

Here goes. I thought it may be a little fun for each of us to look back at this season and maybe find one post or statement moving into the 08 season that is now silly or was just dead wrong that we made. I think mine is pretty obvious as I was reminded of it by a certain person's tagline for quite some time.

I know how much the site likes to do this anyway so it shouldnt take long for you to do a search on your own name and find a little dirt. Or maybe you were just PERFECT.

At this point I don't care if I was wong about everything... The Sox are in the playoffs and that wasn't suppose to happen for the NEXT DECADE!

I will of course go first. Please join in or you can just laugh at me.......

Oh I forgot the Sox will soon envy

by Tdogg on Feb 14, 2008 12:29 PM CST on Community Projection Results: Nick Swisher on South Side Sox

Their impressive display of avg 60+ wins. We don't even have to wager. The Rays win 80 games and I will ship you your favorite 6 pack or bottle of reasonable wine.