SB Nation User Blog: Team Moneyball

Fantasy question: Delmon or C. Gomez longterm

Team Moneyball — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 02:51:40 -0000

Hey guys,

Somewhat unique situation. We're doing a supplemental draft where we can cherry pick guys off a defunct roster. I can roll the dice on either Delmon or Gomez for basically nothing, I don't need either to produce right away and can hold onto them as long as I want.

I'm in a points league so generally power(through total bases) is usually the way to go, but a guy like Gomez who can develop power and has tons of speed can produce.

Who would you want to roll the dice on long term?

manny is the answer

Team Moneyball — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 04:17:28 -0000

After reading the manny thread and seeing all the people ripping on manny for his "antics" and his "slacking off" I had to ask if you guys care about production at all? Manny was an elite player last year with Boston, despite the dogging it to first, holding up "trade me" signs, etc. Additionally, there was a reason he wanted out of Boston, namely the overbearing fans and media, which doesn't exist in socal.

I posed the question who would you rather have between Eckstein running out grounders and manny. Anyone who doesn't say manny is crazy. "Grit" only gets you so far.

Miggy Montero - post hype upside?

Team Moneyball — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 15:40:39 -0000

Hey guys,

Miguel Montero, like other Dback prospects, came up and sputtered. Lots of people blame the easy hitter's parks of the Dback affiliates as to why some of the Arizona guys look a lot better on paper than they actually are.

Miguel came up last year, hit .224 with 10 bombs in 200+ abs. The average stinks but he's shown good contact in the minors and he had a 84% contact rate last year in the majors. The power is excellent for a catcher and is in line with what his prospects were when he was still in the minors.

Do you guys see Montero fitting the classic post-hype prospect bill, coming alive when he finally gets the chance? Or do you see weaknesses in his game that might prevent him from being an everyday regular?

Minor League Draft Outfield Targets

Team Moneyball — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 22:01:11 -0000

Hey guys,

I'm in a mixed, points based keeper league without salaries, but I wanted to get people's opinions on these minor league outfielders. We score one point for each total base, steal, run, rbi, and walk/hbp.

Here the are the guys I'm looking at, if you could rank them:

1. Chase Headley - I really like his power spike in Double-A San Antonio last year, being that its traditionally a tough park on hitters. He also seems to be a guy capable of hitting .300 and racking up walks, both of which help in points formats.

Bonus points: I have Kouzmanoff as a backup 3b. Getting Headley ensures me a solid 3b backup, in case the Fathers want to move Kouz to OF. He'll be up this year, most likely

2. Jordan Schaffer - I like his power/speed combo, but will he have enough pop and walks to become really valuable? In points leagues, speed isn't important but it helps. Walks are as good as a hit and tend to be more consistant, also adding to runs. What is his upside in these areas?

Bonus Points: Looks like he could see some serious PT at some point this year. The Braves are pretty dedicated to bringing up youngsters and he should be able to hold onto his job once he arrives.

3. Matt Laporta - Of the four listed here, he probably has the highest power upside which is huge in this format. He's also a polished hitter so his walks would help. His bat might be major league ready now and he'll be in a potent lineup. The main problem is, will he stick in the outfield?

4. Jason Heyward - People are expecting huge things from his high schooler. He supposedly has huge power upside and a polished approach. He's years away but looks like a top-10 talent in the making. I could afford to wait, but is he worth passing on the three guys above?

5- Travis Snider - Young, talented and might make an appearance fairly soon. How will his plate discipline hold up?

Thanks

Another Laporta, Heyward, Schaffer, Moustakas thread

Team Moneyball — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 17:12:00 -0000

So I've seen a lot of these threads floating around and while there doesn't seem to be a general consensus on rank but there seems to be an idea of these guys' abilities. I wanted to see if everyone could give a mini-crystal ball on these guys and list a line from their peak year, an average year and a small blurb about what position they play, since its uncertain for two of them. I hope this isn't redundant with the other threads but it might help synthesize what has been discussed elsewhere.

Laporta: Should be huge masher, but is really a 1b/dh stuck in LF, where he is now blocked. Some posters have questioned his contact ability, but everyone seems to agree he has monster power and solid plate discipline. His bat might carry him to the majors very quickly, but where is he going to find a place to play?

Heyward: One of the best bats in the 2007 draft out of high school. Very polished and disciplined hitter with huge power and .300 BA upside. Can handle OF so there are no concerns that he won't be able to find a role. The drawback is that he's just out of high school and is years away. There is a lot of time for him to either get hurt, fail, or blossom.

Schaffer: Very good defender at a premier position with solid hitting upside. He also has speed on the bases. He's already had a successful season at AA, so the majors aren't that far away. His upside with the bat doesn't seem nearly as high as the rest, but it would be very good for a CF.

Moustakas: Another top HS bat, but he's slotted to stay at a premium position. Of course there are a lot of doubters who say he can't stay at SS. His bat also has huge upside in both power and BA and he is decribed as having a solid approach at the plate. But is he going to hit at an impact defense position or right field?

Top College Players to watch for the 2008 draft

Team Moneyball — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 02:09:25 -0000

Hey guys we're months away, but I wanted to get peoples' opinions on whom to watch out for this year from the college ranks. How does this class match up against last years? Who are the blue-chippers who are likely to get drafted high in the first round? Is there anyone this year that Matt LaPorte or David Price upside?

cantu traded to reds

Team Moneyball — Sat, 28 Jul 2007 21:06:03 -0000

according to the FOX broadcast crew on the Angels-Tigers Game. He got traded for an unnamed minor league player.

I haven't been able to find a link to this online though, but it is being talked about on the Reds fan forum on mlb.com

rookie/minor leaguer draft help

Team Moneyball — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 01:44:21 -0000

please rank these:

Sonnanstine,Andrew
Micah Owings
Mark Reynolds
Matt Weiters
Joba Chamberlain
Max Scherzer
Manny Parra
Wladamir Belantin
Matt Laporta
Wade Davis
Blake Dewitt
Beau Mills

German Duran

Team Moneyball — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 00:23:32 -0000

I went to the futures game, it was a pretty sweet event. The top end guys(bruce and upton) both showed up big and lots of other prospects I've never heard of flashed some pretty good skills.

One statline i saw that took me back was from German Duran, 2b, AA Rangers player. John had him listed as the #16 prospect and noted that he's a potential sleeper.

Well his stat line is pretty sick: .328/.383/.576 with 15 jacks, 18 doubles in 262 ABs. I just looked up Frisco and apparently its a hitter's park, but those are pretty beefy numbers for a 2b. Anyone have any info on this guy? Is his defense good enough that he can stick in the MI?

Also, according to the program he was born in 1988 which would make him 19! But according to First Inning he was born in 1984 and is 22. Anyone know which is true? I'm guessing 1984 because otherwise he's way advanced and we'd probably know about him.

Prospect Value Perception

Team Moneyball — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 19:22:50 -0000

I was just looking at the community prospect list and noticed that Lincecum was still out there at pick #26. I didn't even realize he was eligible, but he is after everyone practically blew their load over this kid prior to his call up.

Edit: Apparently that was a joke, but I think this stuff is still relevant. Lincecum's value is likely less than it was on April 1.

So what happened? Was it his 5.19 ERA? I guess, but seriously his value dropped like a rock because of 59 MLB innings. First let me say, prior to him coming up I'd say he'd struggle because thats what rookies all do. He has actually exceeded my expectations with his K-rate which is excellent. I'm not a believer in ERA being a good way to judge a pitcher so to me, he's having a great rookie year. If anything, to me his value might be up.

However, this goes to something us Fantasy guys might find handy. It seems to me that a prospect's value drops precipitously the second he reaches the big leagues because he will likely struggle. How much more do you think you could have traded Lincecum for on April 1, compared to now?

This isn't only limited to guys who struggle, sometimes players who do well suffer a value drop. I had Jeff Francoeur during his rookie campaign and prior to that. His value when he was in AAA was pretty high in my league and I was getting a lot of inquiries about him. He then proceeded to almost win the rookie of the year award and mash 14 bombs in half a season. However, his walk-rate was there for all to see. Even though his eye wasn't great in the minors people seem to accept flaws in prospects when they are prospects. When he reached the majors and didn't walk, people thought differently of him. I offered him up in a league-wide email and got no responses. I ended up trading him, hanley ramirez(This is before Hanley blew up of course :), jesse crain and a pick to get prince fielder who was still in AAA.

Sure Prince was a hell of a prospect, but Francoeur was as highly regarded the year before, had just completed a good, yet flawed, rookie year, almost taking home ROY honors and yet his value had dropped a lot.

I think the lesson is to sell the overhyped prospects before they reach the majors and maybe repurchase them later if you can. Lincecum is an example of this. He'll probably struggle this year, he might struggle next year, but once he reigns in his walks he's going to be very very good. But even though he is one year closer to that goal(since he is now in the majors) his value is lower.