SB Nation User Blog: TedBartlett905

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

TedBartlett905 — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:34:39 -0000

Happy Tuesday to all MHR community members. I've been absent for a few weeks, mostly due to craziness in my day job, but at least partially due to a lack of awe-inspiring topics to write about. This is the worst part of the football year, where nothing is going on.

Today, we'll talk about the other teams the Broncos play this season, including AFC second-place teams and the AFC West, and time permitting, I kind of feel like beating up on some MSM writing. We shall see how far I am able to get, and for now, I am going to get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. As promised, let's continue the around-the-league offseason evaluations...

a. Indianapolis Colts (2008 Record 12-4, Lost in Wild Card Round of Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - I really liked the selection of Donald Brown, the RB from UConn. Joseph Addai is a nice player when you keep his carries down, but Brown is a workhorse kind of back. I expect that he will ultimately get 2/3 of the carries for the Colts, with Addai getting the other 1/3. Running the ball effectively is crucial for the Colts, because when the defense has to play the run, Peyton Manning just shreds secondaries. He is very good against dedicated pass coverage, but he is great against 8 in the box. I also liked the pick of Austin Collie, a WR from BYU. He has a really good feel for the passing game, and can be a good slot player in the NFL.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I get that the Colts have a minimalist strategy in free agency, but I think that they are going to regret not doing more to replace Marvin Harrison. Reggie Wayne has really been the #1 guy the past few years, but Anthony Gonzalez is below average for a #2, and should be playing in the slot. If any team should have signed Terrell Owens, it's the Colts. Peyton Manning is one QB he couldn't ever throw under the bus, and the Colts have the kind of program he would have a hard time poisoning.

ST&NO Outlook - I have some reason to think that the Colts are going to decline a little bit this season. There has been a lot of turnover on the coaching staff, and I don't see how you could have a lot of faith in Jim Caldwell, given his underwhelming tenure as a head coach at Wake Forest. I also think #2 WR and the right side of the O-Line are going to be weaknesses, and that the defense will continue to be vulnerable to the run. Despite this, the Colts will be in the playoff mix, as usual. They'll be good, but not elite.

b. New England Patriots (2008 Record 11-5, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Decisions - I really liked their first three second-round picks, Patrick Chung, Ron Brace, and Darius Butler. Chung and Butler have a chance to start as rookies, and Brace should play a lot in the D-Line rotation. I also loved the Fred Taylor signing. I expect him to lead the team in carries this season, and play well. He still has some good football in him. Joey Galloway was also worth a look, and according to PFW, he has looked good so far. It was a pretty nice offseason for the Pats, if you overlook their obviously huge errors in valuing cheaper second-round picks over more expensive first-rounders.

Questionable Personnel Decisions - It's a somewhat small complaint, but they could have done more to improve their highly overrated and underwhelming offensive line. You may not remember it amid the 41-7 shellacking the Broncos took from the Pats last season, but the Broncos sacked Matt Cassell 6 times in the game, by far their best performance of the season.

ST&NO Outlook - I've been saying since Tom Brady got hurt that it's no sure thing that he comes back as good as new. I definitely stand by that, and I could care less what they say about it in Foxboro. Carson Palmer looked great in practice once too, but he has never been the same player since his catastrophic knee injury, and Brady's was comparable. Assuming Brady is healthy, and can play at 90% of his old level (or better), the Patriots are a championship contender once again. If not, they could be a .500 team, because they really got lucky that Matt Cassel played so well last season.

c. San Diego Chargers - (2008 Record 8-8, Lost in Divisional Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Decisions - I somewhat liked the Larry English pick in the first round of the draft. He is another pass rusher, and you can never have too many of them. Picking Dominique Byrd in the 7th round has some potential upside too.

Questionable Personnel Decisions - A lot of their draft picks are really obscure, and they seemed to like them better than most other teams. The right side of the Chargers offensive line isn't very good, and they could have stood to improve quite a bit there. Also, their average IQ is pretty low, according to the screenshot below from the super-reliable ESPN.com. Really, 83 is shockingly low, when you think about it.

ST&NO Outlook - The Chargers are the favorite to win the AFC West, but they won't necessarily get it done. I can't put my finger on what it exactly is, but they have a real underachiever streak. Their talent is also downgraded a bit from last season, and for the second year in a row, they didn't do a lot to improve in the draft. The Chargers will be formidable, but they are flawed, and can be beaten.

d. Kansas City Chiefs - (2008 Record 2-14, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Decisions - I like Tyson Jackson a lot as a player, and I am not one of these guys who worries too much about draft slot. The Chiefs got a very good player for their defensive line, and that's a smart decision. I also liked the choices of Donald Washington and Ryan Succop, and the acquisition by trade of Mike Vrabel.

Questionable Personnel Decisions - I'm not too big on the Matt Cassel trade. Josh McDaniels obviously thought highly of him, but I just wonder if he can be as effective without all the playmakers around him. I am not saying it was a bad move, but it's no slam dunk as a good one either. I also think Larry Johnson should have been traded, and Tony Gonzalez shouldn't have been.

ST&NO Outlook - If Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson play well on the defensive line, and Tamba Hali can get some pressure this year, the Chiefs have a 7-win ceiling. I expect their defense will still be terrible, though, and that they'll win 4 or 5 games instead.

e. Oakland Raiders - (2008 Record 5-11, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Decisions - This is the most difficult task of any team review, because even when the Raiders do something semi-smart (like sign a solid backup QB, as a hedge against a JaMarcus Russell regression or stagnation), it's always kind of dumb if you look at it a different way (Jeff Garcia is a well-known me-first guy, who isn't too interested in actually being a backup). I will give them credit for drafting Matt Shaugnessy, who I like as a player, and not just because he went to my alma mater, Norwich Free Academy of Norwich, CT. I think Shaughnessy fits the Raiders' 4-3 scheme very well, and that he will overperform his draft slot.

Questionable Personnel Decisions - The Raiders will regret taking Darrius Heyward-Bey seventh overall. I said before I am not such a draft slot guy, but when you pass up Michael Crabtree (or Percy Harvin, or Jeremy Maclin) for a guy, he'd better be a star - and DHB isn't going to be one. Also, counting on Khalif Barnes at LT is a mistake. He's a below-average starter there, even if he is a marginal upgrade over Kwame Harris.

ST&NO Outlook - The Raiders have some talent, especially at RB, LB, and LCB. If they commit to pounding the ball in the running game, and they get their defense patched up a bit, and playing sounder, this can actually be an 8-8 team. I think Garcia ends up starting by mid-season, which would be disastrous for the Raiders, (hence the reason I think it will happen). In short, I would hate to be a Raiders fan, and have to secretly hope for Al Davis's death and/or retirement.

2. Did you see this nonsense foxsports.com did around the 10 best "franchise players" under 30? Len Pasquarelli made it worse here with the continued omission of Ryan Clady, and the inclusion of Jordan Gross instead. Gross is good, but he isn't one of the 5 best LTs in the game (Clady, Thomas, Roos, W. Jones, Peters), let alone the best. All of those 5 are under 30, except for Walter Jones, too. I am not a Len Pasquarelli fan, so I don't expect any better, but come on!!! You don't have to be a stats producer to be a franchise player.

3. I think that Ed Thompson is kind of stupid, from what I have read of his 7 Points column. NYC originally made this point, but it bears repeating how asinine it is to say that the Broncos are paying Dre' Bly anything this season, since they're not. Many people don't know this, but in the NFL, unlike all the other major sports, there are no guaranteed annual contracts. The Broncos paid Dre' some bonus money in the past, but they'll pay him nothing this season. The dead money is merely an acceleration of the prorated bonus, so anything Dre' does this year is not "literally at Denver's expense." Next time you see this sort of (il)logical construct, you'll be able to spot it for what it is right away. This is not at all like the Tigers paying Gary Sheffield to play well for the Mets.

4. Here's an asinine comment from John Clayton. It seems that the Texans were lucky that their owner Bob McNair was afraid Reggie Bush received extra benefits at USC, and that stroke of luck led them to draft Mario Williams, because, nobody knew he'd be this good, right?

I mean, hell, he might have been declared ineligible by the NCAA to play in the NFL, right? What Clayton means is, he and his brethren all had that one wrong, and Charley Casserly and Gary Kubiak got it right. They all eviscerated the pick at the time, and said it was just Houston being cheap. Right....because paying $30 million in guarantees for a part-time scat-back, who is banged-up a lot, is brilliant. Even after one season, Houston was getting ripped, as if the jury was in.

The Texans drafted the player they thought was the best, and the one who filled their biggest need. It turns out, Williams seems to have actually been the best player, and it's important to remember, it was more good evaluation than good luck.

Have a great week, and I think this Tuesday debut will be the start of a total shift to Tuesday mornings for ST&NO, since I was planning to make that move anyway once the season starts. As always, thanks for reading, and for your contributions in the comments.

Poll

Which is the tougher set of incremental games: San Diego's first-place schedule, or Denver's second-place schedule?

Broncos Name Orton Starting QB

TedBartlett905 — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 22:44:58 -0000

Broncos Name Orton Starting QB

According to Mike Klis, the Broncos have named Kyle Orton the starting Quarterback. The only surprising thing may be the timing of the announcement.

Hat tips to Boydy and AlanC for having this a couple hours before anybody on staff seems to have seen it.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

TedBartlett905 — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 19:54:52 -0000

Happy Monday, fellow MHR community members. It's time for another version of ST&NO. We're getting to the part of the offseason where I am really starting to long for the preseason to start. When you get your information from your eyes, your eyes start to miss having anything to look at. Here's hoping the next 8 weeks goes by quickly.

Today, we'll look at the AFC North, since the Broncos will play all 4 teams this season. We'll also talk about some of the few headlines around the league, and maybe talk a little Brandon Marshall. It will make you laugh, it will make you cry (if it is your wont to cry over weird things.) It will be shallow, and narrow. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. As previously mentioned, our around-the-league discussion turns to the AFC North this week. As I live in the first suburb west of Cleveland, I get a fair amount of exposure to the division, so, hopefully that helps me with this 8-week road show I am on. See you after the jump.

a. Pittsburgh Steelers (2008 Record 12-4, Won Super Bowl)

Smart Personnel Moves - Kraig Urbik, a 3rd round choice from Wisconsin, has a chance to start at Guard on the Steelers' terrible offensive line. He is a big, physical run-blocker, who fits the personality of the team. I think Ziggy Hood is a good 4-3 DT, but I have my doubts about him as a 5-technique DE in the Steelers' style of 3-4. Giving Kevin Colbert the benefit of the doubt, and assuming Hood's skill set translates well, he'll probably be a rotation contributor as a rookie. Shaun McDonald is an average slot WR, which is better than the Steelers have had in that role lately.

Questionable Personnel Moves - Not that Marvel Smith is a great player, because he isn't, but I don't see how you let him leave when your offensive line is already one of the worst in the NFL. Max Starks sure isn't the answer on a 1-year, $8.5 million deal. I'm also not Bryant McFadden's biggest fan, but he'll also be somewhat challenging to replace. I didn't really care for the rest of Pittsburgh's draft, but they have to hope that either Joe Burnett or Keenan Lewis can contribute at CB as rookies. I am also not sold on the full-time promotion of Lawrence Timmons or the release of Larry Foote. Truth be told, I almost never like Pittsburgh's offseasons, so take it for what it's worth.

ST&NO Outlook - The Steelers will do what they have been doing for 35 years. They'll run the ball, stop the run, and pressure opposing QBs. Their potential for improvement comes from Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed, their top 2 picks in 2008, who gave the team virtually nothing as rookies. Both are talented, and if they develop their skills, could add new dimensions to the Steelers' offense.

This team will have to keep Ben Roethlisberger healthy, which I expect they'll have some trouble doing. Their line (Did you hear? It's awful) really struggles in pass protection, and I don't expect the arrival of Urbik to substantially change that. The defense should again be good in the front 7, but I expect that a team which can pass-protect, like the Broncos, will be able to accomplish some things against their below-average secondary.

The Steelers will again be in the mix to play in another Super Bowl, but I expect them to take a half-step backwards from last season.

b. Baltimore Ravens (2008 Record 11-5, Lost in Divisional Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - I like virtually their entire draft, which is typical for them. Michael Oher is a big-time talent, and I think he will eventually move Jared Gaither to RT, where he really belongs. Paul Kruger is a high-motor pass rusher, and a favorite of mine. I expect him to compete for snaps right away. Jason Phillips was an undervalued ILB from Texas Christian, and represented good value in the 5th round. I expect him to help make up for the loss of Bart Scott. On the free agency front, I liked the low-dollar signings of CB-RS Chris Carr and TE L.J. Smith, and I think both can make the team and contribute. The Ravens had to re-sign Ray Lewis, and did it eventually.

Questionable Personnel Moves - They lost the talent exchange huge in signing C Matt Birk, and letting Jason Brown leave as a UFA. Brown is a mauler, who fit the Ravens' style, and Birk is totally a finesse guy. Domonique Foxworth is a great guy, and an average CB, and there's no way he warranted a 4-year, $28 million contract. He can't replace Chris McAllister, who was cut in a somewhat weird salary dump. I also would take Jim Leonhard over Dawan Landry any day, and I think the Ravens should have tried harder to retain Leonhard.

ST&NO Outlook - I believe that the Ravens overachieved in 2008, and I expect them to take a step backwards to 8-8 or 9-7 this season. I didn't address the loss of Bart Scott in either of the two categories above, but I think it will hurt the interior of the defense. I also think the only above-average player in the secondary now is Ed Reed, and that portends for trouble. I do like the promotion of Greg Mattison to defensive coordinator. He worked as co-Defensive Coordinator at the University of Florida for 3 years, which is how I came to be familiar with him.

On offense, Joe Flacco had a very nice rookie season, and I'll be interested to see what kind of improvement he experiences in his second year. The offense isn't great, and if the defense isn't dominant, it would be hard to imagine them having a lot of comeback ability. That's the scenario which I envision for the Ravens in 2009. They'll be well-coached, but a little short on talent.

c. Cincinnati Bengals (2008 Record 4-11-1, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - In the draft, I really liked the selection of TE Chase Coffman from Missouri. I think he will grow to become their best pass-catcher at TE since Dan Ross in the 1980s. On talent, you have to like T Andre Smith, ILB Rey Maualuga, and DE Michael Johnson, but all three are considered major threats to underachieve. Since we're in benefit-of-the-doubt mode, we'll just focus on the talent for now. In my opinion, Laveranues Coles is a more threatening player than the departed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and they got him for less than Who's-your-mama cost Seattle. I liked the trade for RB Brian Leonard, which fell a little under the radar. He has some similarities to Peyton Hillis, that I think Bengals fans will enjoy. They also paid reasonable money (2 years, $7 million) for Cedric Benson, who really played pretty well for them last season.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I would have moved WR Chad Ochocinco out of town, and not thought twice about it. With the signing of Coles, and the high draft picks spent on Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell last season, Ocho isn't worth the headache that you know he is going to be. I think J.T. O'Sullivan is a big downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick as a backup QB, which I guess reminds you how little I think of J.T. S Roy Williams is not the answer for the Bengals secondary. He ought to just move to WLB, where he may actually be able to be a good player.

ST&NO Outlook -The Bengals are likely to struggle again in 2008. The main reason they have been so consistently bad is their cheap approach to business. Their coaches are all low-paid relative to their peers, and you don't get quality that way. The team should have fired Marvin Lewis two years ago, but money seems to have prevented that. The Bengals spend by far the least money on scouting, and they rely very heavily on The National service for their evaluations.

Offensively, the key variable is Carson Palmer. I believe that he has never been the same player since that catastrophic knee injury in the 2006 playoff game. Now, he is coming off a serious elbow injury, and he chose not to have Tommy John surgery for it. I am not terribly optimistic for him, or the Bengals' offense.

The defense will be bad against the pass, but could improve against the run, if Keith Rivers returns from injury well, and Rey Maualuga is able to help some against base personnel packages on first and second down. The Bengals need better play out of Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall at CB, as both were first-round picks.

c. Cleveland Browns (2008 Record 4-12, Missed Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - Their best moves were non-moves. It was the right thing to do in holding on to Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards. People here in Cleveland are down on Edwards, but if he plays better, that will be a distant memory. Fan attitudes in Cleveland change like the weather. I liked the acquisition of DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, and QB Brett Ratliff in the trade for the #5 overall pick. Regular readers will note that I don't like top-10 picks, but Coleman and Elam are likely to start, and I think Ratliff will end up backing up Quinn. Brian Robiskie will be a good possession WR, even if the Browns over-drafted him. I really liked the acquisition of Mike Furrey in free agency. He is one of the best slot guys in the NFL when he is used correctly.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I didn't care for the Alex Mack pick on a couple of levels. I like Eric Wood better, but that's a difference of opinion. Really, though, the Browns needed to take Chris Wells or Donald Brown. The Browns' RB situation is abysmal, and it's hard to have an identity as a running team, without the horses to do it. Kevin Shaffer was lousy at RT, but John St. Clair is worse, so I don't see how you let Shaffer go. Sean Jones should have also been re-signed. In the draft, I was not a lover of the Mohammed Massaquoi pick. I have seen him a lot, and he is just a guy.

ST&NO Outlook - I think the Browns are on the right track, generally. If any team needs a coach to ignore the howls of the local radio idiots and their un-knowledgeable callers, it's the Browns. Eric Mangini is the embodiment of the guy who doesn't care what Mike Trivisonno thinks about anything. You hear about stuff like the rookies taking a bus trip, and coaches working until midnight, but I tend to think Mangini's prickliness is OK, because he knows how to build a program. He was on the way in New York, and he got hamstrung by the Favre expectations, and then lost his job when it didn't work out.

I am nearly certain that Brady Quinn will win the starting QB job. He is very technically sound, and he processes the game really quickly and decisively, which is the opposite of Derek Anderson. The left side of the O-Line is very good, although there are odd rumors that Eric Steinbach is out of favor, as noted in this space last week. I think that Jamal Lewis is washed-up, and that rookie James Davis may beat him out for a lot of carries.

The defense is kind of a disaster story. NT Shaun Rogers is outstanding, and I have always liked CB Brandon McDonald (who was the burnee on Eddie Royal's 93-yard TD last season.) Beyond that, I am not too fond of anybody on their defensive unit. Eric Wright has talent, and may improve, and Kamerion Wimbley could be good if he ever learned to do anything more than speed rush.

We'll see the Browns in Week 2, but they are at least one draft away from being very scary. I'd rather be them than the Bengals, though.

2. I think it is absurd that Brandon Marshall may face additional discipline if he is convicted in the Watley case, which has now been postponed until August. It seems to me that the NFL is having it two ways, and that it's unfair. Think about it like this. In the Paul Tagliabue days, the League always waited until after legal matters were resolved to levy punishments. Roger Goodell has asserted his right to rule before legal matters are finalized, and in fact, it seems that that is standard practice.

So, when Marshall was suspended last year, for getting arrested a few times, it seemed that that penalty encompassed this allegation, as well as all of Brandon's past transgressions. That the NFL is saying they can still penalize Brandon for the known allegation would not be fair. Guru said that he speculated the NFL's position to be maintenance of flexibility in the event that new allegations emerge in this trial, which would be slightly more understandable. My position is that the underlying allegation has been penalized, and that the NFL should stop saber-rattling, and do nothing further. I would say that even if we were talking about Philip Rivers.

3. Brett Favre had surgery to fix his shoulder. Good times, huh? It looks like he'll be a Viking this season. It says here that Brett will not deliver a championship for them, and that they'll struggle to even make the playoffs with him in the lineup. He is a chemistry killer at this point in his career.

4. I liked what I heard from Josh McDaniels about how he planned to use Peyton Hillis this season. I think any smart coach would look for ways to use a guy like Peyton, in both the running and passing games.

5. Coming back to Marshall, I don't think that there is very much substance to this business about him holding out for more money. It is just the kind of thing that a Pork Chop or one of his ilk will try to make a big deal about, to fill some space. While I am sure that Marshall would like more money, it's not a big deal until he starts skipping mandatory events.

6. Mike Lombardi had an interesting nugget in his Sunday at the Post column.

Word I hear out of Denver is that the Broncos are very happy with both quarterbacks. However; Kyle Orton should be the starter when the season starts. Chris Simms is getting better with each practice, speeding his game up and making decisions faster. But Orton still has the upper hand.

My goodness, two QBs who can play? Who saw that coming? How could a team be happy about Orton and Simms?

With a slow news week comes a short list. We'll see you next week, for more ST&NO. We'll talk about the AFC East, and anything that may come up this week.

Poll

Who will win the AFC North this season?

Pittsburgh Steelers

439 votes

Baltimore Ravens

100 votes

Cincinnati Bengals

15 votes

Cleveland Browns

14 votes

568 votes | Poll has closed

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

TedBartlett905 — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 00:49:43 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Welcome to an eve-of-month-end-financial-close version of ST&NO, where I spent spent all day between a boat transiting Lake Erie, and Kelley's Island, which is a very nice place to visit. Exacerbating matters is the fact that the lady-friend has been out of town all weekend, and her plane lands at 10 PM. At that point, I expect to devote some time to talking to her, as I tried to lay off all weekend so she could hang out with her college roommate in peace. It is now 8:54 PM, and I will write until she calls. It's a lot like being down a couple touchdowns with 4 minutes to go, and no timeouts. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. I said I had an idea last week on the killer-vs.-filler front, and I do. As the around-the-league guy, I have decided to do some breakdowns on the offseasons and 2009 outlooks of the other 31 teams over the next 8 weeks. I must warn you, do not expect groupthink or regurgitation of other morons' ideas, as I am the only moron whose thoughts count here. Like I told the student from Penn State, I get my information from my eyes, you dig? (In the interest of full disclosure, I may have been unduly short with him at times during our conversation, because I used to work with a pretty loathsome woman who was a (much too) proud Penn State alum. I realize that it's not fair to automatically expect that he sucks at life, just because she did).

Anyway, I am going to start with the most relevant teams, and since the Broncos play the NFC East this season, I am going to discuss my (Shallow) Thoughts and (Nearsighted) Observations of those four teams after the jump.

a. New York Giants (2008 Record 12-4, lost in Divisional Round of Playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - Chris Canty was one the best additions of the offseason by any team, and Rocky Bernard will help their defensive line also, as both are expected to start. Canty, especially, can play inside as a DT, and really help the Giants run defense. It was a little outside the box to sign a 5-technique to play probably a 2-technique, but it has a high probability of working in this case. I also loved the selection of OLB Clint Sintim in the 2nd round of the draft. He played in one of the very few collegiate 3-4's at Virginia, but the Giants like to blitz their SLB a great deal, and Sintim fits that profile very well. Another departure from traditional thinking for the Giants, which generally makes me feel very warm and fuzzy inside. Other draftees whom I like include William Beatty, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckum, Andre Brown, and Rhett Bomar. Jerry Reese is a good picker of players.

Questionable Personnel Moves - The Giants needed to trade for Braylon Edwards, and I believe that they really messed up in not doing so. Hakeem Nicks is going to be an okay player, but he isn't anywhere near the talent that Edwards is. I think that GM Jerry Reese was too in love with having his first-round draft pick, and the team is going to suffer for it this season. For a top-of-the-league talent who is being offered for pennies on the dollar, you make the deal. (As a Mets fan, I would trade their top OF prospect Fernando Martinez for Jake Peavy in a nanosecond. Peavy and Johan Santana together makes you a favorite to win the World Series, just like Edwards would have made the Giants the favorite to win the Super Bowl. This is the same kind of situation, though I think Martinez is even a better prospect than Nicks).

ST&NO Outlook - This team can definitely win the Super Bowl with reasonable health. The key competitive advantage they have is their outstanding and remarkably deep defensive line of Canty, Bernard, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Mathias Kiwanuka, Jay Alford, and Fred Robbins. Corey Webster and Aaron Ross are both very good at CB also. I believe that the Giants will field the #1 defense in the NFL this season.

The offense is good overall, but flawed in a few ways. Their offensive line is excellent at run blocking, but below-average in pass protection, especially David Diehl, who is a LG pretending to be a LT. They also lack anybody at WR or TE who is remotely scary to a defense, which is going to force a lot of 8-man fronts, like the Giants saw at the end of 2008 once Plaxico Burress shot himself. The good news is that the Giants can really run the ball, and I expect Andre Brown to earn some carries as a replacement for Derrick Ward.

This is very probably a playoff team again in 2009, but the tough division they play in makes missing the postseason conceivable, especially with a key injury or two. If you can pass-protect and contain the run, you can beat the Giants though, and we know the Broncos can do one of those things, at least.

b. Philadelphia Eagles (2008 Record 9-6-1, lost in NFC Championship Game)

Smart Personnel Moves - There were many. The best thing the Eagles did was shore up their offensive line, with the trade for Jason Peters and the signing of Stacy Andrews. Peters can be one of the best in the league when his conditioning is right, and his technique stays solid. Andrews is above-average as a player, and is the brother of Shawn Andrews, who is the best RG in the NFL, when he isn't missing time due to clinical depression. The Eagles will have to hope that Stacy's presence can help Shawn, and that they can dominate together on the right side. In the draft, I really liked the value of Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Cornelius Ingram. All three can make a few plays right away for an offense that needed a few more last season.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I don't see how the Eagles could let Brian Dawkins go. It benefited the Broncos, but he was Mr. Eagle, and he had a great 2008 season. I expect his loss to be of the same magnitude as the Broncos' loss of Al Wilson, where the effect will be felt throughout the whole defense, for years to come.

ST&NO Outlook - The Eagles are also a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but my expectation is that it will now be more because of their offense than their defense. I think the loss of Jim Johnson is likely to be felt in a big way, mostly because I have no way of gauging how Sean McDermott will do calling games in his stead. Johnson added tremendous value to the Eagles with his scheming and game day play-calling. (I do know that Josh McDaniels wanted to hire McDermott for the Broncos staff, and the Eagles denied the Broncos permission, so that may be a strong endorsement of his skills.)

I think the Eagles' offense will be in the NFL's top 5 this season, and that they'll win 10-11 games and make the playoffs. In a 6-team tournament, they could definitely come out on top, as they nearly did in 2008.

c. Dallas Cowboys - Ugh. As Drew Rosenhaus would say, next question.

d. Washington Redskins (2008 Record 8-8, missed playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - From a purely football standpoint, you have to like the signing of Albert Haynesworth, but he cost way too much, and the team will pay the piper down the line for that. It was sooooo Redskins, though, trying to make a big splash. Beyond that, there wasn't much to like, in my opinion.

Questionable Personnel Moves - I am not a Brian Orakpo fan, mostly because I believe the prevailing NFL thought that University of Texas players are soft because they are coddled in college. If you think about it, how many UT players have really been as advertised in the NFL? (Aaron Ross.... and ummm.... Shaun Rogers when he feels like it... and hmmmm.... Aaron Ross?) Orakpo, if he is good, would fill a major need, but I liked Robert Ayers a lot better. The rest of the draft class was tremendously underwhelming, to me. Cutting Jon Jansen this weekend was a little perplexing, as he is a lot better at RT than anybody else they have. I am not a DeAngelo Hall fan, and hopefully he draws a lot of man coverage against Eddie Royal when the Skins play the Broncos this season. I also think the Skins needed to get a legitimate kicker, and they missed that mark again, so enjoy another season of Shaun Suisham, Skins fans. It has been a problem for them since the early 90s. Also, publicly floating Jason Campbell's name, and chasing Mr. Unmentionable and Mark Sanchez was really strategically pretty stupid too. Not to be all dramatic, but I really hate just about everything about Washington's offseason.

ST&NO Outlook - I just can't find a lot of reason to get excited about this team's prospects, but I can make a case for improvement by them. I thought Jason Campbell was the best QB in the NFC in the early part of last season, but he faded late. If he returns to form, and is asked to do less West-Coast timing (Zorn) sort of stuff, he can be very good. Santana Moss is a playmaker, and Antwaan Randle El isn't (though he is widely believed to be). If Devin Thomas and/or Malcolm Kelly emerge as competent NFL starters, the Redskins can be successful in the passing game, to the extent that their below-average O-Line can keep Campbell on his feet. Clinton Portis is outstanding, as we all know, and if he can stay healthy, the running game will be pretty good.

The defense looks kind of meh. They have 4 good players, in Haynesworth, Rocky McIntosh, Chris Horton, and LaRon Landry. The rest of their defense consists of overrated, underachieving and/or declining players like London Fletcher, Andre Carter, Phillip Daniels, Carlos Rogers, MeAngelo Hall, and (Fred) Smoot Dogg. If Orakpo is good from the start, and a few of those guys have career seasons, the Redskins can be solid on defense.

Bottom line, I think this is an unbalanced and average football team. They have a great fan base, which I didn't know until I attended the HOF ceremony last season. I am sure their fans will vote their players to the Pro Bowl again, whether they deserve it or not, but this is a 6-10 win team, depending on health and luck. They have a puncher's chance against anybody on their good days, but they're not nearly as good as New York or Philadelphia.

e. Dallas Cowboys Ugh.... just, ugh!!! (2008 Record 9-7, missed playoffs)

Smart Personnel Moves - Getting rid of Terrell Owens was definitely the right thing to do, and I am actually surprised that Jerry Jones accepted the personal loss of face which was inherent to the move. I give him a lot of credit, as it was a "football-man" kind of decision. Igor Olshansky is a significant downgrade from Chris Canty at RDE, but he's better than getting castrated in a freak lawn-mower accident, I guess.

Questionable Personnel Moves - Here's the deal. When you score 362 points and give up 365, you're an average football team, and there's no other way to spin things. The Cowboys did nothing substantial this offseason, except get rid of T.O., and lose a very good player in Chris Canty. I think it was a miscalculation to think that this was a Super Bowl-caliber team last season, and it's an even bigger one now, given the measurable results of 2008. The Cowboys tend to believe their own hype, and they always think that just because their lousy players make Pro Bowls (Flozell Adams? (Safety) Roy Williams? Really!?!?!) that they are actually Pro Bowl-caliber players. This was not the offseason to stand pat, and the Cowboys did a little worse than that.

ST&NO Outlook - This is a talented, but seriously flawed team. They lack anybody very good at WR, (including Roy E. Williams) and their O-Line is really overrated, and is below average, if you want to get strictly reality-based about it. Tony Romo is a very good athlete, and he has some playmaker to him sometimes, but he makes as many bonehead throws as any QB in the NFL, and hurts the team when he does. Marion Barber is a good tandem back, but they believed the Marion-the-Barbarian foolishness, and they wore him out last season. I do like Felix Jones, but he's no workhorse either. He and Jason Witten are about the only two guys on their whole offense who I care for as players.

The defense will suffer some for the loss of Canty. He was one of the best 5-techniques in the NFL. They are about to send Greg Ellis packing, in favor of Anthony Spencer, and that's a mistake. Ellis is a good player, and Spencer is an athlete who doesn't seem to have much feel or knowledge for playing. The Cowboys will almost certainly struggle again to defend against the pass, especially in the middle of the field. Gerald Sensabaugh isn't even really an upgrade over the departed (Safety) Roy Williams, as lousy as he was.

Because there is some talent in Dallas, they can win any game they play, but they will frequently be out-executed, and beaten for that reason. I expect them to be on the same level as the Redskins, and nowhere near the class of New York and Philadelphia.

2. I'm going to wash my hands now, after writing about the Cowboys. Maybe I will brush my teeth too, as I think I may have read a few of the words aloud, to gauge how they sounded. Better safe than sorry.

3. OK, I am back. Thanks for your patience. My phone call came, and I talked for like an hour, but still I press on like I'm those craptastic Lee Nails. That's how much I want to get this up at 8:30am Monday, that I am still writing at 11:37pm on Sunday night, with close looming in the morning.

OK, quick; something shallow and nearsighted. Ummmm, OK, the Jets QB situation. Kellen Clemens is not going to beat out Mark Sanchez for the starting job, unless Sanchez misses a significant amount of camp time holding out. Take that to the bank. I don't think that Sanchez's agent, David Dunn, allows that to happen. While he is also Clemens' agent, you have to prioritize your higher-paid clients more highly.

4. I think it's very silly that Eric Steinbach's job might be in jeopardy in Cleveland. I understand that Eric Mangini values size in offensive linemen, and that Steinbach is small for the position, but he is one of the best technicians in the NFL, and he does a great job at LG for the Browns. I can think of about 20 teams who'd love to have him, if the Browns let him go.

5. I think that most of the substance of the 4-letter coverage of Brandon Marshall is a lot of rehashing of stuff that was already out there, so I am not sure what the real news value of it is. Unlike Bob Ley, I am not going to judge who is lying and who is telling the truth, but I think the letters requesting money may be telling as to the motivation of his ex-girlfriend. Brandon's appearance on OTL wasn't his best camera performance, which is probably understandable, but he was strongest when he was talking about her embellishing facts and injuries, and seeking money. Whatever the case, I hope he does a better job of controlling his emotions, and that ESPN's ratings-seeking/past-dredging/platform-granting doesn't force the NFL's hand in determining the outcome of his most recent incident with his fiancee, for which the charges were dismissed the next day.

6. As an old sailor (well, I am 31, so not that old), I love few things better than a good rooster-tail. It's indicative of a true course and steady forward progress. Check this one out, taken from my iPhone Sunday, which actually takes a pretty nice picture, unlike any other cellphone I have ever owned..

May the Broncos' course be as straight, and forward progress be as powerful as the MY Perfect Pear (lame name, I know) was Sunday. And then we can call Adam Schein and make him eat a nice helping of tasty crow. Bon appetit :)

7. Retired for John Elway.

Have a great week, and remember, optimism doesn't cost anything. Go Broncos!!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

TedBartlett905 — Sat, 16 May 2009 21:33:42 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Browse more photos »

I am not a very big Sum 41 fan, but they had a great album title a few years ago, in All Killer, No Filler, which our friends at Wikipedia inform me was borrowed from Jerry Lee Lewis, who was significantly cooler than them. I always thought of it as the Sum 41 rule, until I just looked it up, so that continues, I guess.

Anyway, I have adopted it as a rule of ST&NO, in the sense that if I can't think of enough interesting topics to fill a decent column, I won't post one, because I owe it to those who read my work not to waste their time with weak stuff. I started writing some content last week, and it didn't pass the test, so I didn't post anything on Monday. Here goes 2 weeks worth of material, on a Memorial Day Monday. As a veteran myself, I would remind our American community members to take a moment to reflect on the brave servicemen and women who lost their lives in the service of our nation.

To business, then. I am a big fan of versatility. When I work, probably nine days out of ten, I wear black shoes. For that one day when I wear brown shoes, I sure appreciate a reversible belt. It keeps me from having to put incremental cost into purchasing, owning, and maintaining a separate brown belt.

Because it's a pretty slow time of the reloading season, I decided that I would take a run at projecting who makes the 53-man roster out of training camp, and what I came away thinking is that the Broncos' offensive personnel and Josh McDaniels' creativity might lend themselves to being the most versatile offense ever.

The Shanahan-era Broncos were always pretty versatile on offense, but Mike was sort of a football ideologue, in that he believed his overarching schematic principles were better than other principles in use elsewhere. We haven't seen Josh McDaniels run a team yet, but I suspect that he'll be even more adaptable than Shanny, which is one of the most important traits a coach can possess. We already know that he has the chutzpah to trade away a Pro Bowl QB who refused to embrace the program, which is something very few coaches can claim.

Below the fold is my first run at a 53-man roster, and depth chart. I'll be working off of it for the first part of this piece. Ready... BEGIN!!!

	1st String	2nd String	3rd String	4th String	Practice Squad
QB	Kyle Orton	Chris Simms	Tom Brandstater
RB	Knowshon Moreno	Peyton Hillis	JJ Arrington	Correll Buckhalter	Kestahn Moore
WR	Brandon Marshall	Chad Jackson			Nate Swift
WR	Jabar Gaffney	Brandon Stokley
WR	Eddie Royal	Kenny McKinley
TE	Daniel Graham	Tony Scheffler	Richard Quinn		Marquez Branson
LT	Ryan Clady	Tyler Polumbus
LG	Ben Hamilton	Kory Lichtensteiger
C	Casey Wiegmann				Blake Schlueter
RG	Chris Kuper	Seth Olsen
RT	Ryan Harris

LDE	Robert Ayers	Darrell Reid	Matthias Askew		Everette Pedescleaux
NT	Marcus Thomas	Ronald Fields	Chris Baker		Carlton Powell
RDE	Kenny Peterson	J'Vonne Parker			Rulon Davis
Rush LB	Elvis Dumervil	Jarvis Moss
WLB	DJ Williams	Nick Greisen	Lee Robinson
MLB	Spencer Larsen	Andra Davis
SLB	Wesley Woodyard	Boss Bailey
LCB	Champ Bailey	Alphonso Smith
RCB	Andre Goodman	Jack Williams
FS	Brian Dawkins	Darcel McBath	David Bruton
SS	Renaldo Hill	Josh Barrett

LS	Lonie Paxton
K	Matt Prater
P	Brett Kern				Briton Colquitt


	Active Roster	Practice Squad	Offense	Defense	Special Teams
	53	8	24	26	3

1. Offense -

The beauty of a versatile offense is that it can attack the weaknesses of any defense. The personnel group which the Broncos have lends itself to playing any style that the coaching staff deems to give the team the best chance to win. If you want to go run-heavy and pound the Colts, no problem. You have 3 good TEs, and a lot of quality at RB. If you want to spread out the Steelers, also no problem. There are plenty of receiving threats on the roster at WR, TE, and RB. If you want to be really balanced, and keep the Patriots guessing, that's very doable too. It's a beautiful position to find yourself in as an offensive coach.

a. QB - I think Orton will beat out Simms, and that he will play very well. He has weapons and protection here which are vastly better than anything he ever had in Chicago. I expect Simms and Tom Brandstater to both be on the roster. The days of carrying 2 QBs are likely over.

b. RB - Here's the deal on the RB position. There won't be a true FB, but Peyton Hillis will be on the team, and will play a prominent role. (Incidentally, let's also just say no to this H-back foolishness, because the Broncos won't be using one, just like the other 31 teams won't use one, either. Thanks.) If you've seen much recent Patriots football, picture how they used Heath Evans at times, but at a higher volume. Peyton is more talented than Evans, and I'd expect him to touch the ball 8-10 times per game, between the running and passing games. I think that Moreno will start, and be the primary ball-carrier. Arrington has been battling some injuries, but I think he makes the team as the primary kickoff returner, more than anything. Buckhalter probably makes the team, considering what he was paid, and I like Kestahn Moore as a developmental type on the practice squad. He has the look of a guy who can be a key special-teamer. I think Ryan Torain looks like the odd man out, as this regime is not particularly invested in him.

c. WR - I don't know if I think that Chad Jackson is particularly worthy of making this team, but when you use 3 WRs almost all the time, you need 6 on the roster. I feel very good about the other 5, though. I kept Nate Swift on the practice squad too.

d. TE - I mentioned versatility, and these guys, along with Hillis, are the reasons I feel so good about it. I think you can really load up with power guys, with Graham and Quinn, and you can use Scheffler as he has always been used, as a downfield matchup nightmare. I loved the Quinn pick, and this is a tremendously strong position group. Marquez Branson sticks on the practice squad.

e. OL - This starting group is among the best in the NFL, and is definitely the best in pass protection. With legitimate RBs, I expect them to rank near the top of the NFL in both rushing and passing. I am excited about some of the young backup players, too. I think you can stash Schlueter on the practice squad, and work with Polumbus, Olsen, and Lichtensteiger as backups and special teams contributors.

2. Defense -

The thing about a 3-4 is that it's really a lot like the old 5-2. By that, I mean that the key to stopping the run rests with the OLBs setting the edge, and forcing the play back inside to the other players who are maintaining gap discipline. This is a key reason why it works well against zone blocking, because it forces the runner back inside to the lateral pursuit. I think the Broncos can do a decent job of this, with the personnel they have.

a. DL - I think there is actually both quantity and quality here. I consider Robert Ayers and Marcus Thomas to constitute the quality, and a lot of other guys to represent the quantity. I learned recently that Thomas had put on some weight, and was attempting to convert to NT. Whether he plays there, or at DE, I expect that he'll start. He's tremendously talented, and was the team's best D-lineman last season. There is some hand-wringing over whether Ayers is a DE or a LB, but I expect him to play at DE. He plays with enough strength, violence, and physicality to do well in a 3-man front. I like Kenny Peterson to be the 3rd starter, and Ronald Fields, J'Vonne Parker, Darrell Reid, and Matthias Askew to be the backups. I think that Chris Baker, Everette Pedesclaux, and Rulon Davis will stick around, and that two will be practice squad players, Pedesclaux and Davis, in this projection.

b. LB - Elvis Dumervil will be the starting rush LB, and I expect that he'll be backed up by Darrell Reid and Jarvis Moss. I think Moss gets a legitimate chance to convert, and that he can take advantage of it, and contribute. Tim Crowder doesn't make the team in this projection. I think Spencer Larsen will beat out Andra Davis inside, and that DJ Williams will start as a weakside ILB, even though I am not the biggest fan of the idea. I think that Wesley Woodyard was the best LB on the team last season, and I expect him to start at OLB, with Boss Bailey backing him up, more for financial reasons than anything else. I think that Nick Greisen and Lee Robinson will make the team, and contribute on special teams.

c. DB - This will be the strength of the defense, after being the biggest weakness last season. The starters are obvious, with Bailey, Goodman, Dawkins, and Hill, and Alphonso Smith will be ready to play in sub packages right away. I think that Darcel McBath will replace Hill on passing downs, sooner rather than later, and that his ability to play CB will allow the team to keep both Josh Barrett and David Bruton for their special teams abilities, rather than keeping 5 true CBs. I think Jack Williams is the 4th CB, but he'll face a challenge from fellow holdover Josh Bell.

3. Special Teams -

a. Specialists - Prater, Kern, and Paxton are all fairly obvious. I like Britton Colquitt to stick on the practice squad as insurance.

b. Coverage teams - I wanted to call attention to this area, because this is where things get interesting. The coverage teams have been terrible in recent years, but I think there is a lot of available talent to work with now. Imagine this group of 10 players running down on kickoffs: Larsen, Woodyard, Bruton, McBath, Barrett, Jack Williams, Lee Robinson, Greisen, Alphonso Smith, and Champ Bailey. That is a group of athletes who can run and tackle. Expect major improvement in this area.

c. Return game - I think Eddie Royal keeps returning punts, at least part-time, and JJ Arrington will be the primary kickoff returner, with somebody other than Royal joining him.

4. That is a significantly more talented 53-man group than last season's. I know I am supposedly a big homer, but from a pure football evaluation standpoint, I can make a case that the Broncos will be better in all phases of the game in 2009 than they were at the end of 2008.

Think about it. With a more effective running game, and another excellent blocker at TE, the Broncos should convert touchdowns at a higher rate in the red zone. The passing game should be just as effective, owing to the better running, and still execellent WR and OL play. The defense will almost certainly be better, with the revamped secondary. The front-seven could use another draft to improve, but a good start was made this reloading season. If the defense can be league-average, which is clearly feasible, this is almost certainly a 10-plus win team. Add to that what I expect to be vastly improved special teams, and you are on to the reason why I believe the MSM is getting their lowball predictions very wrong.

5. I feel like I need to address the term troll, which I used on this site about the behavior of a few people semi-recently. I've been being called a hypocrite for using it, which is an inapt characterization. It is not my word, and in fact, when you want to flag a comment or post on this blog network, Troll is one of the built-in classifications along with Inappropriate and Spam. Troll is a standard, worldwide internet term. It even has its own Wikipedia page here.

From that page:

In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, irrelevant or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum or chat room, with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response^[1] or to generally disrupt normal on-topic discussion.^[2]

When I used the word troll, I was not referring to these people's character as much as their behavior. Thread-jacking and intentionally inflammatory commenting are examples of troll behavior, and are deserving of the name.

The good doctor, Broncobear, had a great idea in the comments of Sunday's Horse Tracks.

If someone has a different perspective, may I suggest that they post an article? I can’t really be expected to write from a perspective that I don’t have or agree with, and neither can you. Please – I’d love to see more contributions from folks of differing perspectives. As Broncoman’s post on the Washington Redskins has shown, people here take a lot of pride in debating, but the debate can and should avoid name calling and personal attacks. Please enrich the perspectives by adding a well written, well thought-out post on your perspective.

That way, you can let your thoughts stand on their own, and people can comment on them (or not) as they see fit. If you follow the Code of Conduct, your opinions will be allowed to stand here for all to see, just like mine or anybody else's, regardless of what the substance of them is, and nobody will call you a troll. Sounds like a good deal, right? Write whatever you want in your own posts, within reasonable standards of respect and decency, and your voice gets heard.

Now, I suspect that some people will consider this, and figure that most members will just ignore their negative opinions in independent FanPosts, so they will decide to stick to their existing playbook of polluting threads, and denigrating other people's work and opinions. More people irritated is better bang for the buck, right? Understand that that will make you the definition of a troll, and I'll be happy to flag your troll comments every time you make them.

6. I am more interested in this NBA playoff season than I have been in any recent year. I think the reason is that the successful teams are having most of their success because of their role players, more than their stars. That is where the games are mostly being decided, a big last second 3 from LeBron notwithstanding. It reminds me a little of football, where so much hinges on players whose names aren't ever known, or thought of, by casual fans.

One thing bothers me, though, which occurred to me as Cleveland's Goodyear blimp flew over my softball game last Wednesday (which I am proud to report, was won by the Feisty Goat 14-12, with 2 runs and 2 RBI from yours truly.) What in the world is the point of aerial coverage of an NBA game? All you can see is the exterior of the Thinly Disguised Cult Center, or whatever it's called. Why is that compelling television? Couldn't the blimp operating company just buy a few commercials, and leave the blimp in the barn? That would be a good baby step toward reducing our national carbon footprint, which we could all feel good about. Just a thought....

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. I saw this article on ESPN.com on Sunday, with the headline "Report : Ex-con advised on Dallas facility." This is a classic ESPN journalistic turd. The fact that this person team spent time in prison on drug trafficking charges is absolutely irrelevant to the facility failing to hold up to the wind. What may be somewhat meaningful is the fact that he seems to have falsified his educational credentials, but that is mentioned at the bottom of the story. Emphasize that, and try to make a case that the guy is incompetent, based upon the independent accounts of those who have been colleagues or clients of the guy. Otherwise, don't waste the bandwidth or the storage space, mmmkay?

9. It's interesting to see that Braylon Edwards and Shaun Rogers are now both claiming to be happy to be Cleveland Browns. I have to wonder if that isn't simply the realization that they can't do much to change it right now.

10. I would be pretty happy to have Greg Ellis at the right price as another option on the edge of the defense, and it appears that the Cowboys are determined to move him. The Broncos haven't been mentioned in any rumors yet, but a lot of national writers forget that the Broncos exist sometimes, so I wouldn't say it means that much. Ellis is a guy who has been very solid for a long time.

11. (Emphatically NOT retired for Patrick Ramsey.) From the Programming Department of ST&NO, once the preseason starts, I am planning to shift ST&NO to Tuesday mornings, and give it even more of an around-the-league feel. Since TSG already does a Monday morning post-game analysis, I think this new approach adds more value in the holistic sense. I will have a fair amount of Broncos thoughts, and some thoughts about several featured other games. (I watched every game for the first 9 weeks of last season, and realized that that is really hard to do, so I won't try to repeat it.)

One feature that I think will be really cool, and definitely original, will be a dedicated weekly analysis of the offensive and defensive line play of both teams in a selected game. That way, when a terrible player like Flozell Adams makes the Pro Bowl again, you can refer back to the time when I analyzed him, and described how Osi Umenyiora eviscerated him, in between the 4 false start penalties he had.

I am open for other suggestions also, so if there's something you'd like me to cover, drop me a line. Just about anything can fit into ST&NO, as you know by now. Have a great week, and we'll see you next Monday, as I already know what to do the rest of the reloading season, on the killer vs. filler front. Until then....

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

TedBartlett905 — Sat, 09 May 2009 21:06:04 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos rookie running back Knowshon Moreno, right, the team's first pick in the NFL draft, talks with running backs coach Bobby Turner during the team's football minicamp at Broncos' headquarters in the southeast Denver suburb of Englewood, Colo., on Sunday, May 3, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Monday, MONDAY, MONNNNNNNNNNNNDAY!!!!!! Good morning, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. For this week's official ST&NO picture, I chose Knowshon Moreno being coached by Bobby Turner. It kind of gave me a warm fuzzy feeling, knowing Bobby is still with us, and that he's devoting his considerable coaching talents to developing a future star. It's the time of the year where football news is slow. If I were a newsman, I might have to resort to making up some trade rumors. Since I am an avowed opinion-writer, though, here comes a portion of that instead for you to chew on. Bon appetit!

1. I work for a publicly-traded Fortune 500 company in its corporate finance group. I help manage the finances of a standalone $110-million business unit within the larger $6-billion company, but I do participate some in the consolidation of financial results across the entire company, so I have gained some insight as to how it all works.

I don't think I should probably name my company explicitly here, but I will say it is one of the few whose stock has performed fairly well amid the financial crisis of the last 6 months, because that's the point of this lead-up.

The main reason for the strong and steady performance has been expectation management. Our senior management tells Wall Street that we'll make certain numbers, and we make them every quarter. I am involved in the forecasting at the business unit level, and I can tell you that it's a very serious undertaking. Nobody gets surprised, and the stock performs well. The main reason individual stocks tank is underperformance of expectations. Conversely, overperformance of expectations causes stock prices to skyrocket. It's a smart strategy to stay away from hyped stocks that underperform, and a smart strategy to look for ones which are under the radar, and ready to overperform.

I look at the Denver Broncos for 2009, and I see a lot of reason to think that the team will overperform the low expectations which the punditocracy (negative, as always) seems to be setting for them. I saw somebody at Football Outsiders say the Broncos were a couple of bad breaks away from watching Seattle exercise the first pick in the 2010 Draft on their behalf. It was so idiotic that I am not even going to link it. After the jump, we'll look at this seriously.

Welcome to the other side. I am going to hypothesize a hypothesis here. It seems to me that a smart football coach will always seek to make best use of his assets toward the accomplishment of the mission of winning football games. Wow, that's pretty obvious, right? Well, the football media always seems to assume that coaches are inextricably tied to systems, regardless of the personnel they have to use.

Coaches who don't adjust to their personnel are doomed to lose a lot of games and get fired. Mike Shanahan always adjusted, Bill Belichick is well-known for adjusting (remember the 2-5 stuff he was doing on defense when he had a bunch of D-Linemen hurt?), and even Tony Dungy went away from a pure Tampa-2 over the last few years some. Smart coaches adjust as needed.

For example, we're all under the impression that the Broncos will run a 3-4 defense this season, as Mike Nolan is known to favor it, and Josh McDaniels has openly said they want to transition to it. I think it's a mistake, though, to think that it will be a pure 3-4, because the total complement of necessary personnel may not be in place yet. It would only make sense to deploy your resources in the most productive way possible, regardless of what you would prefer to do.

You're wondering, what could I be getting at? Well, I will tell you. The Broncos have significantly more talent on their roster, top to bottom, than they did last season, and particularly, at the end of last season. I don't think you'd get a lot of argument against that statement from anybody. So, if the talent is better, isn't it a natural assumption to make that a smart coaching staff would be able to deploy that talent in such a way as to improve upon last season's 8-8 record? It follows that all of the hand-wringing about "fitting the system" is just noise.

Think about it. The defensive talent is better overall, and it's vastly better in the secondary. The inability to cover the passing game was the primary reason for the defensive problems last season, although many seem to believe otherwise. The second-biggest problem was giving up big plays in the running game, which Brian Dawkins helps against, because he's such a good player against the run, without even starting from the box. Better gap discipline from a new scheme would help too. If you strip out the big plays, the Broncos run defense wasn't really that bad last season. I think it is reasonable to think that the Broncos defense can be league-average this season.

The offense is absolutely loaded with talent. At 10 of the 11 positions, there is a definite above-average player. Ryan Clady, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Casey Wiegmann, Ryan Harris, and the Daniel Graham/Tony Scheffler tandem are at or near the top of the NFL at their respective positions. Knowshon Moreno can be outstanding also, and I love the idea of a Moreno/Hillis tandem at RB. (Important: If that happens, I am calling on the MHR to reject the predictable Thunder and Lightning regurgitation. Let's not allow it to go there). If the winner of the QB derby plays well, which I find pretty likely, this is a top-notch offense, one of the very best in the NFL.

The increased talent also has implications for the special teams. Better team athleticism leads to better kick coverage units. This was again a weakness in 2008, and by drafting a guy like David Bruton expressly to help the special teams, and adding guys like Darcel McBath and Alphonso Smith to the coverage units, you have to think that improvement will be seen in this area.

This team will be better this season than it was last season, whether or not it shows up in the record. Low expectations are a blessing, because they will allow the team to operate under the radar for awhile. Look at Miami, Atlanta, and Baltimore last season, who walked the same path that the Broncos will walk this season. And remember - for the Broncos, the task is to go from second (or really, tied for first) to first, not worst-to-first.

2. I don't think that Brett Favre is coming back this season, but I don't really care. It doesn't affect much of anything in my opinion. People say the Vikings are a QB away from championship contention, but Favre isn't that QB anymore. They'd almost be better off looking at Michael Vick when he gets released from home confinement in July. That's a different kind of circus, but it's worth a look, at least.

3. Since I am sure the Vick reference will stir something up, I believe that a convicted criminal who serves his sentence to the satisfaction of the law should be allowed to rejoin society, and earn a living without impediment. People will say, what about child molesters, well, this is clearly not nearly the same thing.

Any protestation of Vick getting another job will, in my opinion, harm society as much as Vick's dog-fighting crimes did. I hope that the guy learned his lesson, and doesn't repeat his mistakes, but if he does, he can go back to prison. It's not fair for people to assume that he will screw up again, though.

4. While writing this, I've been watching Game 4 of the Rockets-Lakers series. Nobody in the MSM thought the Rockets would win this game after losing Yao Ming for the season, and they dominated. This is another example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. A team that has winning habits and executes can overcome injuries and personnel shortcomings.

5. I am a New York Mets fan, and I know there are several others here as well. I think the best broadcasting team in sports is Gary Cohen, Ron Darling, and Keith Hernandez for SNY. Cohen is a very knowledgeable play-by-play man. Darling, who went to Yale, brings a thinking-man's approach to game analysis, particularly pitching. Hernandez, the greatest defensive first baseman ever, and a very good hitter, has an equally cerebral approach to analyzing hitting and defense. Darling and Hernandez both take some games off, so sometimes it's all 3, and sometimes it's just Cohen and one of the other two. It works great, regardless of the configuration.

The best thing about the three of them is that they have no problem criticizing the Mets when it's warranted. The analysis is fairly detached, and they don't use the words "we" or "us" unless they are talking about a Mets team in the 1980's that they played on. While watching a recent game, it occurred to me that MHR is similar to the Cohen/Darling/Hernandez troika. We're homers to a reasonable point, and it's clearly understood that we want to see the Broncos be successful. In the final analysis, though, we'll criticize the team where it's reasonably warranted.

6. I am very interested by the launch of the ESPNChicago.com site. Not a lot has been made of it, but I consider it to be a major occurrence in the sports media landscape. If you read this guy's February column on Chicagotribune.com, he seems to get it dead wrong, in my opinion.

ESPN believes Chicago has big enough shoulders for another local sports outlet, as it will launch its first Web site devoted to local sports fans.

No, that's not what ESPN thinks, actually. ESPN thinks that they can do better than the existing local sites, and take enough of their market share to push them out of business. They undoubtedly have the most resources to work with, and they have cost efficiencies relative to the locals, so they may be right. Remember, newspapers everywhere are dying, so there has to be an expectation that a future void will need to be filled.

I am starting to envision a world where the major news sites (CNN, MSNBC, Fox News) begin adding sites for large local markets, and ESPN is hosting sites in every market which has professional or major college sports. I would venture to guess that CBS and Fox would try to get in on the sports action, and CBS in on the news action as well, but both are pretty far behind the industry leaders today.

This is a new form of media imperialism that's on the rise. The print media is severely disadvantaged by their existing cost structure, and the owners of the broadcast media see the opportunity to dominate a new "written-word" media landscape. (They'll mostly want to stay out of the printing business, beyond existing ventures like ESPN the Magazine.)

MHR will be directly competing against the likely-to-someday-exist ESPNDenver.com. Our model is very different, in that we're a participatory community rather than a sermon on a mount, but in the marketplace of ideas, we'll be facing off more directly than ever with ESPN. It should be interesting.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. I have decided that I will no longer buy products or services from retailers who compare their pricing schemes to "stimulus packages" or "bailouts" in their advertising. That's just too much stupid for me.

We'll see you next week for more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Maybe there will be some new Broncos news by then to talk about. Have a great week.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

TedBartlett905 — Sun, 03 May 2009 16:01:34 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

2 months ago: Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith, the first of three second-round picks in the NFL draft by the Denver Broncos, talks to the media at the team's headquarters in Englewood, Colo., on Sunday, April 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

Browse more photos »

After going with focused and snark-free on Wednesday, I'm back with what everybody is more used-to from me. Meandering and snark... it must be ST&NO. Ready... BEGIN!!!!!

1. In the holistic, all-things-considered sense, second-round draft picks consistently work out to have better value than first-round draft picks. Some of you don't believe me, that much is clear; but it's true. Today, I am going to explain why and how.

There are four key reasons why:

a. Guaranteed money

b. The urgency of right now

c. Contract length

d. Relative value returned

a. First, let's start with guaranteed money. If a player is picked in the first 16 picks, his team is allowed to sign that player to a six-year contract, and they usually do. (The five-year deal Jake Long negotiated last year led a fairly anomalous preponderance of 5-year deals last season.) Players picked in the last 16 picks of the first round can be signed for a maximum of 5 years, and almost always are. All of them did in 2008.

Beginning with the first pick of the second round, you get into 4-year contract territory. I know what you're thinking... what does the length of the contract have to do with the price of tea in China? Well, a few things, actually.

A longer-term contract is inherently favorable to the team, because it provides cost certainty over a long period of time. To reap some benefits in return for the opportunity cost which the player is bearing (as represented by the inability to renegotiate for a long time,) agents insist upon receiving a great deal of guaranteed money in longer contracts, which provides income certainty to the players.

Take a look at the following chart I put together to help illustrate this point.

The bolded red rows represent the slots of the 5 players the Broncos took on Day 1 this season. (Note that Kevin Smith was the first pick of the 3rd round last season, due to the Patriots' forfeiture of their own first round pick, hence the 3-year contract.) Notice the far right column, which shows guaranteed money per year. It steps progressively down with each pick, which is what you'd expect. Look at the huge drop between the end of Round 1 and the beginning of Round 2. (I didn't include pick #31 Kenny Phillips because he had a fairly exotic, incentive-laden contract, or pick #32 Phillip Merling, because his deal was negotiated as if he were the last pick of Round 1, like Pick 32 normally is.)

If you have a guy like Alphonso Smith rated as the 20th best player in the Draft, and you can get him at #37, it's a great deal financially. Instead of having to guarantee $1.6 Million per year, you're getting the guy for guarantees of $650-700,000 per year. Just because a guy was drafted in the second round, doesn't mean he can't play like a first-rounder. Many of them do, at least as many as there are first-rounders who bust.

b. There's also the urgency of right now. For this reason alone, the standard going rate of a draft pick this year is ALWAYS a pick one round higher the next season, which, for valuation purposes is ALWAYS assumed will fall dead in the middle of that one round. That means that a first next year is fundamentally equivalent to the 48th pick this year. The Broncos got the 37th pick for the equivalent of the 48th pick. Value-wise, the Broncos win easily there, regardless of who the player selected is.

A lot of media people are acting like this was a really questionable or odd trade, but it was absolutely not. It was standard, like any number of other trades in recent years, such as the ones for Tony Ugoh and Joe Staley. The Panther did exactly the same thing in trading for Everette Brown at the 44th pick. Somehow, they're taking much less of a media beating for it.

Josh McDaniels put it like this. He said that the way they were looking at it, they had four 1st-rounders in the next two years. When a player they valued as a #1 was available at #37, they decided to take three of the four #1s this year. I think that makes perfect sense. Three good players can help the team now, and for one of them, you got at a huge discount, in terms of dollar cost. Would you rather pay $700K per year guaranteed to Alphonso Smith, or 2.5 to 3 times as much to next year's 16th pick?

c. Contract length is a key also, as alluded to before. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, (whose terms I mostly expect to continue into the foreseeable future once a new deal is reached,) a player on a 5- or 6-year contract hits unrestricted free agency after their rookie contract. A second-rounder on a 4-year deal is a restricted free agent at the end of his. That means that the team can control him cheaply for a fifth year too. So say Alphonso Smith plays great and completes his 4-year deal, and earns $4.8 Million (assuming a 5 percent raise over Curtis Lofton's deal last season, which is probably reasonable). The Broncos could tender him with a first- and third-round tender, which nobody will want to pay. The cost, in today's dollars, would be an incremental $2.562 million, so let's say it's $3.27 Million five years from now. (That number was extrapolated by running a 5% annual raise out 5 years, or mathematically, 2.562 X 1.05⁵).

That brings the 5-year total to $8.07 Million, or $1.61 Million per year. Compare that to the contract that CB Domonique Foxworth just signed with Baltimore. He got $28 Million for four years, with $16.5 Million guaranteed. Foxworth improved in Atlanta, and got to the level of a completely average player. This is simple math, folks. A better player can be had for a quarter of the price of a lesser player. You take that deal every time. It's exactly the reason that you want to build through the Draft.

d. Time for more fun with charts, with a derivative of the above chart, this time projecting slot costs for players drafted in 2009.

We're making a couple of important assumptions here.

i. ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. knows what they're doing in valuing prospects, and their 1-100 grading scale is linear in nature, by which I mean, a one-point difference between 90 and 91 is the same as a one-point difference between 66 and 67 or 30 and 31. Each unit must represent the same amount of value on a scale of 1 to 100. (This entire assumption is somewhat dubious, but it's what we have to work with.)

ii. All slots will get a 5% raise this season, which again, is probably reasonable, if not slightly optimistic for the players, given the weak economy.

So, with those assumptions in mind, notice how little relative value you get out of the top 7 picks. Compare that with how much relative value you get from lower picks. This indicates what I have been saying (and I am definitely not the first person to do so), that the second round is the sweet spot for value.

Our five Day One picks from this Draft will cost a total of about $9.5 million per year over the next 4-5 years, or about three-quarters of a million dollars less than Darrius Heyward-Bey, the second coming of Ashley Lelie. That is value maximization.

2. As for the MSM's incessant howling about Alphonso Smith being too short, people ought to read this excellent FanPost from gnarlybroncodude. Now, I personally tend to be a guy who favors taller CBs, all things being equal, because I favor man-to-man press coverage. (Hence my love-fest for Sean Smith).

Josh McDaniels made clear the other day that he favors shorter, more fluid CBs. To paraphrase him, he said that the jump-ball situations where shorter guys are at a disadvantage happen too infrequently in a season to be very worried about, when compared to the quickness benefit you can get all the time. I think that makes a good deal of sense, and in any case, Alphonso Smith was one of my Players I Love a few weeks before the Draft. I value ball skills in a DB over any other factor. I was, and am, thrilled with this pick.

3. One of the fundamental rules of Finance is that sunk costs become irrelevant once they are incurred. I just spent $2,000 getting the engine of my car fixed, because the #4 rod bearing failed due to a manufacturing defect, and I was past the power-train warranty by a year and 20,000 miles. If something else major goes next year, the two grand I spent this weekend is not germane to next year's fix-or-junk decision. It must be evaluated independently, because paying the two grand was judged to be the right call in the spring of 2009, and that's that.

By the same token, watching the Broncos record this season through the prism of the traded first-round pick is a waste of time, and an exercise for the unintelligent. It doesn't matter, because the decision was deemed to be the right one in the spring of 2009. Sportswriters like to second-guess, and root for their instant "analysis" to have been correct. I consider that to be pandering to (and encouraging) foolishness from the consumers of their content.

Think about it like this. You're playing Texas Hold-em, and sitting on pocket aces, and after slow-playing it pre-flop, the flop comes out Ace, 7, 10, rainbow. You go all-in with a set of Aces, heads-up against a guy with a bigger stack than you, who has King-8 of clubs. The other guy catches running clubs on the turn and the river, for a flush, and you bust out. Was going all-in a bad decision? Of course it wasn't. At the time you made the decision, it was clearly the right call, at more than 9-to-1 odds. You go get a stiff drink and try again tomorrow, and do exactly the same thing the next time you're faced with the same situation. The end.

By the way, if the naysayers are correct, and the Broncos' pick is in next year's top 10, I bet the Seahawks try like crazy to get out of it. (Political messaging time.) Top-10 picks provide extremely low relative value vis-a-vis the money you have to spend on them. Remember when the Patriots had San Francisco's 7th choice in 2008, from the Joe Staley deal the year before? They wanted OUT of that pick, and only could get down to #10, where they took Jerod Mayo. They thought they could get him in the late teens, but couldn't find a taker for the 10th pick.

4. I talk about pundits a lot, and there is always a negative connotation to that word when I use it. The reason is that I associate the word with political talking heads, and I think that virtuall all of those people do society a great injustice by focusing on the wrong things. In this time of 24-hour news cycles and instant analysis, the pundits focus on process and horse race, rather than on policies which affect people's lives down the line. It's always "What does he have to do to get elected?" rather than "Are his policy proposals good for America?" This is how tens of millions of Americans can get a tax cut without fully understanding that they got one, for example. The media is more concerned with the politics than the policy.

I think football pundits do the same thing, especially around draft time. They're more worried about the process of it all, than with how the results translate to the field. Because they can read a value chart and a few scouting reports, they can pass themselves off as process experts.

Adam Schein can rip the Broncos for taking Knowshon Moreno, and it is (arguably) pertinent content today. When Knowshon rushes for 1,500 yards this season and helps the Broncos win games, Schein's rant will be a distant memory, from many news-cycles past. I remember when Schein brutally ripped the Packers for hiring Mike McCarthy. Before I got rid of Sirius, he had him as a regular guest on his radio show, and Schein couldn't get enough of kissing up to "Michael J. McCarthy."

Rick "Mr. Puff-Piece" Reilly also goes the shrill route, and calls Josh McDaniels Boy Blunder, and claims that it's arrogant that McDaniels takes a different approach to draft board construction than "most boards." He incorrectly states that McDaniels traded a #1 to "move up" in the second round. He goes on to tell us, as Broncos fans, that we're screwed. It seems to me that he ought to be posting on the DPO message board, with moral clarity like that, to go with such a weak grasp of the facts.

As a person who is strictly an opinion writer/analyst myself, I try to be careful to be measured and consider all sides, because being wrong always comes back on you when your work is archived. I expect to be wrong sometimes, but I think that being reasonable in your original presentation, and making transparent acknowledgment of the fact that you could be wrong goes a long way.

5. The flip side is that my opinions are completely independent of anybody else's, and not very subject to change at all. In a forum like MHR, I am happy to read other people's opinions, and I think it's great that we can all discuss football, and share thoughts, and have our opinions evolve from the discourse. If somebody wants to tell me that the Alphonso Smith trade was dumb, I'll never agree with that, no matter what they say, so there's no point in me arguing with them. I think what I think, and they're free to think what they think. That's what I mean when I say I am not in the arguing business, I am in the saying-what-I-think business.

I relate this to Josh McDaniels' comments about how he doesn't care what anybody else's evaluations were. That's definitely the right attitude, in my opinion. I am solely responsible for the content of this column, so the only things which matter to it are what and how I think. When I spend 4-5 hours every Sunday writing it, I don't think for one second about how anybody else is going to take it. I am solely focused on writing value-adding content that MHR readers will want to read.

Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders are responsible for selecting the personnel for the Broncos, so the only things which matter to that process are what and how they think. They have to produce a winning team, so their focus is solely on that.

Disagreement and criticism are fine, in both arenas, but at the end of the day, only results matter. McDaniels and Xanders don't care, just like I don't care. There's no room for hurt feelings, only for production and results.

6. As the resident around-the-league guy, here is one undrafted Free Agent per team to watch out for this season, and two for the Broncos.

Team	Player	Position	Comments
Arizona	Brandon Pearce	T	Could compete at a position where the Cardinals could use some depth.
Atlanta	Ryan Stanchek	T-G	This is the kind of player who eventually steals a starting job
Baltimore	Dannell Ellerbe	ILB	Flashed a lot of talent at Georgia, but never was consistent.
Buffalo	Joel Bell	T	I'm loving the O-Linemen so far, but Buffalo has a need at T.
Carolina	Gerald Cadogan	T	Should have been drafted by the end of Round 4.
Chicago	Eric Peterman	WR	Slot guy is the best of a weak bunch.
Cincinnati	Quan Cosby	WR	A solid player who can contribute as a rookie. Already 26 years old.
Cleveland	Mike Massey	TE	The Browns need TE help. Wonder if he'll cry about Wolverine hate?
Detroit	DJ Boldin	WR	Anquan's little brother could be better in the NFL than college.
Green Bay	Ronald Talley	DE	Not impressed with this group, but Talley could help at DE.
Houston	Jeremiah Johnson	RB	May be able to help soften Slaton's workload
Indianapolis	Tim Masthay	K	May make the team as a kickoff specialist
Jacksonville	Tyler Lorenzen	QB	A possible keeper as a #3 QB due to his good athleticism
Kansas City	Taurus Johnson	WR	Has kick return potential
Miami	Orion Martin	DE	A potential edge-rusher in a rotation, probably at OLB
Minnesota	Ian Johnson	RB	Could make team as a backup RB
New England	Brian Hoyer	QB	Developmental type with good tools
New Orleans	PJ Hil	RB	It makes a lot of sense that he'd find short yardage carries
New York Jets	J'Nathan Bullock	TE	Basketball star at Cleveland State was a football star in high school
New York Giants	Maurice Evans	DE	Should have stayed in school. Fell due to behavior questions
Oakland	Shawn Bayes	RS	Speedster, so he'll fit right in
Philadelphia	Sam Swank	K	NFL caliber placekicker. This is a function of my dislike of David Akers
Pittsburgh	Mike Reilly	QB	Ron Jaworski likes him, and that's good enough for me with a QB
San Diego	Darry Beckwith	ILB	Underachieved at LSU, but has talent
San Francisco	Alex Boone	T	Lakewood, OH's own, can someday start at G in the NFL. Fairly serious behavior concerns exist due to a predraft alcohol incident.
Seattle	Michael Bennett	DE	Can play in a rotation at the NFL level
St. Louis	Phil Trautwein	T	Can fill in at either T position, and do fine
Tampa Bay	Rob Bruggeman	C	Will be in the mix for a backup OL spot
Tennessee	Mitch King	DT	High motor, low tools. Will probably make the team on effort.
Washington	Antonio Dixon	DT	Has talent, but inconsistent play kept him undrafted
Denver	Chris Baker	NT	This was buying low, and with such a need at NT, he has a great chance
Denver	Rulon Davis	DE	When you were named after Rulon Jones, Denver is a natural fit.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. It occurred to me the other day that there's a fine line between using recurring phrases like "Ready... BEGIN," or always keeping #7 retired for John Elway, and devolving into nothing but a bunch of Schein-on-the-radio-like schtick. I plan to be careful not to ever get to Scheinland with my work for MHR. Let me know if I am ever going too far in that direction, and I'll dial it back.

9. Have a great week, and I'll see you next Monday morning for more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations.

Poll

Which is a better all-things considered value among the choices below?

Moreno, Ayers, Smith, McBath, and Quinn for a total cost of $9.5 Million per Year

730 votes

Darrius Heyward-Bey (or any #7 pick) for a total cost of 10.3 Million per Year

16 votes

My friend Cletus told me in school that I'd never need math in the "real world" so I am not sure. Would you like fries with that?

112 votes

858 votes | Poll has closed

On Sanctimony And The Character Of Young Men

TedBartlett905 — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 23:38:54 -0000

I'm not really a contrarian. In fact, I think people who are contrary just to be contrary are typically worthless to an intelligent discussion. Incessant devil's advocacy just gets in the way of progress. Actually, if you ask some people who've begun frequenting this site recently, I am a big homer, and all I do is write happy, sunshiny stuff about how the Broncos can do no wrong. Of course, that doesn't take into account the fact that I was the first person to criticize Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders for misplaying the initial Cassel trade discussions, but that's neither here nor there, I suppose.

I wanted to write about character, because I have about had it with all the sanctimony surrounding the topic. Character. It's like it's become an unchangeable physiological attribute, like stiff hips, or thin legs, or small hands. It's evidently so clear-cut that a grinning, know-nothing jackass like Trey Wingo can casually say that Percy Harvin has character issues on national television. It's tawdry, like a soap opera. "Can they possibly take him with his character issues?"

I believe that the United States has a draconian cultural approach to crime and punishment. Every culture agrees that its members shouldn't steal from, kill, or injure its other members. In the U.S., we go crazy about some other stuff too, particularly criminalizing the use and possession of drugs. There are more people incarcerated in the U.S. right now for drug offenses than there are incarcerated in the entire European Union for all crimes combined. You have to remember that the E.U. has 100 million more people than the United States. That shocked me when I first heard that, and it still makes no sense to me, to this day.

There is also very little sentiment in the U.S. calling for the humane treatment of prisoners, or any substantive improvement to prison education, counseling, or other rehabilitative services. How many times have you heard a friend say "I hope that guy gets raped every day in prison." How many times have you said or thought something similar yourself? Think about what that's saying.

When we speak of the Department of Corrections, we're basically lying to ourselves. Inherently, it seems that we view the true purposes of incarceration to be punishment, and segregation from law-abiding society, rather than modification of future behavior. It's a lazy-father attitude, one which says that if a person can't "learn his lesson" just from being in prison, then there's no helping him. It's like sending a kid to his room, so you don't have to take the time, or expend the effort, to actively teach him how and why to behave better.

In this country, the attitude seems to be that if a person commits a crime, then he should forever be known as a criminal. There should be no credence given to the idea that a person can change, or that the past transgressions of a changed person should be forgiven.

You can probably tell what my value judgment is on thinking like this, but the purpose of this is not to explicitly announce that value judgment, or to try to sway anybody to see things my way, or, frankly, to even invite any discussion of it. I think what I think about penology and sociology, and everybody else is free to think what they think. I encourage everybody to debate the merits on Daily Kos, Red State, or wherever else such heavy public-policy discussion may be more appropriate.

The purpose of talking about these topics is simply to set a backdrop for a discussion of the character of football players. There must be an examination of our own attitudes if we're to understand the world in a more enlightened way. Frankly, I am showing a great deal of faith in this community, to invest the large amount of time it will take me to write this. I think that this group is mature enough to disagree with me on some or all background points, but still to consider what I have to say relating to football.

So, on to football. Percy Harvin is my example today, because he's exceptionally dangerous with a football in his hands, yet he went 22nd in this weekend's Draft. I'm a Florida Gators football fan. One thing I know is that Urban Meyer is not a coddler of players. He's actually a lot like his friend Bill Belichick, in that he expects players to act like men, and that he rarely hands out compliments very easily. The Gators stomped Knowshon Moreno's Georgia Bulldogs this past season, 49-10, and Meyer found fault with the second-string defense allowing that late TD. Meyer brings in a ton of talent every year, and there's always a replacement if somebody needs to be shown the door. There was absolutely no indication of any trouble with Percy Harvin during his three years at Florida. He had some minor trouble in high school, and he failed a marijuana test at the Combine, which was really foolish of him. But in a structured environment like the one at Florida, there was not a peep.

Remember, Meyer kicked his best player, our own Marcus Thomas, off the team in 2006 for violating the terms of a behavior agreement with the coaching staff. He went to Disney World with some friends, and he had agreed not to leave campus at all. Good-bye, best player on the team. That team, of course, went on to win a National Championship that season by stomping the bejesus out of Ohio State. I have to speculate that respecting the coach for his decision to stick to his guns played a factor. Harvin was a freshman on that team, and scored a TD in that game.

I was watching the NFL Network on Saturday a few hours before the Draft started, and the discussion turned to Harvin. How could he be dumb enough to fail a drug test? Deion Sanders said the most useful thing I've ever heard him say.

"I know the NFL is writing our paychecks, but 30% of the League is smoking." Of course it is. When I was in the Navy, 30% of the guys on my ship were smoking, but I'll get to that later.

Here's an important question, in my mind. Do we have a moral objection to a player smoking weed, or getting in a fight as a freshman, or getting arrested for public drunkenness as a junior, or is the concern that the guy is going to mess up again, and get suspended, and cause the team to lose games by his absence? If it's the second choice, then you're not really worried about character, you're worried about risk management vis-à-vis potential suspensions. I can get behind that thinking. I don't want a player to be getting suspended, and I will factor the increased likelihood of it into an evaluation. I won't say the guy has bad character though, because I don't know him.

What is character, really? Is it an unchanging attribute? Are you born with a certain one, and it is what is? Is it dependent upon the past circumstances in your life, and can it be affected by future circumstances? I believe that a person's character changes all the time. I don't want to get into the theories of Sigmund Freud or Erich Fromm very much, because it's very complex stuff, and I'm not as conversant in it as somebody who studied a lot of psychology. It would be like somebody who only knows a little bit about the X's and O's of defense trying to get really technical, when that's best left to a person like HT.

I will instead offer myself as an example. When I was 22 years old, I would have definitely had a character red flag. My circumstances made my character what it was. When I was about 13, my parents' always-unhealthy marriage devolved further, and they stopped talking to each other, but continued to live in the same house with us. They finally got divorced when I was 16, after not really speaking for 3 years. Rather than having been encouraged to achieve to my personal potential (by going to Columbia, or Yale, or Harvard, like some of my intellectually-comparable high school classmates did), I got lost in the shuffle. In a family that's falling apart, everybody just tries to survive the carnage for themselves, and that included both of my parents. I was on my own, like everybody else.

I got angry and started doing stupid and self-destructive things. I was arrested six times between the ages of 16 and 18, for a variety of minor offenses. (I have no criminal record, and I was never convicted of anything, thanks to some good luck, and one Prosecutor whose son was my father's Sunday School student.) I was drinking excessively, and taking some illegal substances here and there, and chasing a lot of easy women. Angry stuff, running the streets, and not really caring about anything very much.

I frequented Keene State College for a year, which is a party school in southwestern New Hampshire. I had time to do everything except go to class. From there, I landed in the Navy's prestigious Nuclear Power training program, with my best friend from Keene. My father was a nuclear engineer in the Navy, and it seemed like a great way to redeem myself. Alas, I failed out of the program, because I still couldn't bring myself to do the right things. My best friend, Jason Lake, got kicked out of the Navy while still in the Nuke program, over some drug stuff. (Jason subsequently died in a perfectly innocent car accident in 1997, at the age of 20, and I still miss him and think about him to this day.)

I ended up in the Deck division on the USS Spruance (DD-963,) in the Jacksonville area. As a guy who was always a Smart Kid, I initially resented being sent to do work which required a fairly small amount of thinking, and a large amount of manual labor. (It turned out great for me, actually, because I learned a lot of common sense stuff that Smart Kids who fly straight never get to learn.)

In August of 1997, I smoked some hashish out of a soda can on a beach in Theoule-Sur-Mer, France. Somebody smelled it on me and a friend, and he turned us in. Eventually, 8 more guys got caught up in it, because the guy who sold us the hash gave up a bunch of names to keep himself out of federal prison on an international smuggling charge.

The Captain went out on a limb, and didn't kick six of us out of the Navy, even though he was supposed to under the Navy's zero-tolerance policy. We were in the middle of a deployment, and he would have had a serious staffing problem in the Deck division. Those of us who were retained became known as The Cartel. We all got otherwise hammered to the fullest extent of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, though. We were confined to the ship for 45 days, we had to do 45 days extra duty, we got busted back a pay-grade, and had our incomes reduced to practically nothing for 2 months. We also had to show up 5 times a day (8 AM, 11 AM, 4 PM, 6 PM, and 9:30 PM,) just to be counted, even if it was during our scheduled sleep time, which is just ruthless. For all intents and purposes, we were incarcerated for a month and a half. We were also told that if we got in trouble again, for anything at all, we'd be separated from the Navy with Other-Than-Honorable Discharges.

Five of the six of us eventually met their demise in that way, one for something as minor as having his tongue pierced. The other four got busted for smoking pot again. I kept smoking it too, and just never got caught for it a second time. I got in some other trouble twice more, and got saved by some Chiefs who liked me the first time, and the Executive Officer (second in command on the ship) the second time. Being a generally likable and engaging guy was my salvation, I guess.

When I got clear of the 3^rd offense, I was 21, about to turn 22. I was just entering my fourth year in the Navy, and my job performance in the first three was mediocre at best. I had spent a lot of time sneaking off to take naps in aft steering. In the Navy, out of sight is often out of mind. I had to reconcile my mediocre performance with the fact that I didn't consider myself to be a mediocre person. It had to be one thing or another. I made a key decision at that time, which has affected the rest of my life since then.

I decided that I was going to work hard, and finally apply myself. I quit smoking weed, and focused on getting qualified to take on new responsibilities and get promoted. People didn't believe it at first. I was the guy who never gave a crap, and at the flip of a switch, I turned into a hard charger. They started calling me S**t-hot Ted, derisively at first, because they were sure I was running a con.

It was no con though. I became the youngest and lowest-ranking person in ship history to get qualified as a Rig Captain for underway refueling. See video here, if you're interested. The person in yellow is the Rig Captain, and is in charge of the rig, as the name would indicate. It's a very complex and dangerous evolution, and if you're not careful and decisive, you can easily have somebody get killed. I got promoted to E-4 by scoring in the 99^th percentile on the Navy-wide test, and I finished my Surface Warfare Specialist qualification (which is a huge deal) seven weeks before I got out of the Navy. The aforementioned nickname, which was originally meant in a derogatory way, came to be said only with respect. I went out with an Honorable discharge, on a very strong note in April of 2000, at the age of 22.

So imagine that story, only with me as a football player. I was a very talented guy coming out of high school, but I'd had some minor legal trouble, bad grades, and inconsistency on the field. An FBS (formerly Division 1-A) school took a flier on me, on talent, but I red-shirted, and kept getting in trouble and had bad grades there. They asked me to leave after one year, because they don't need guys who won't fly straight. I re-materialized at an FCS (formerly Division 1-AA) school, and had 3 mediocre seasons, with average grades, but some more trouble, including one fairly major drug-related incident, which drew a team suspension. In my senior year, I stopped getting in any trouble at all, did really well in school, played at an All-American level on the field, and graduated.

Do I get drafted, or am I more trouble than I am worth? Do I have character issues? I guarantee that everybody with a voice or a keyboard would have said that I did have serious character issues. Mel Kiper would have hated me, and called me a one-year wonder. Adam Schein, who is my Future Crow-Eater of the Day (for giving the Broncos an unequivocal F in the 2009 Draft), would have hollered in his inimitable North Jersey voice that I was unworthy of being drafted, as if he knew something about anything.

That was April of 2000 for me. Now, switching back to my real life, I've graduated from college twice with Bachelors degrees, and quickly advanced in my career as a corporate finance professional. I'm recognized as a young leader in my company. I've never been in any legal trouble or done any drugs since those wayward Navy days. I grew up to be a social drinker who knows his limits, and a good all-around citizen and person. I write quality stuff on this website, for no compensation, because I want to add value to a terrific community of Broncos fans.

To switch back to the football analogy, I've been a very good player for nine years now, and I've rewarded the team which gave me a chance many times over. Unless I tell people, nobody would guess that I used to be so troubled. I've always been a good person, but my character is different at age 31 than it was at 16, 18, 22, 25, or 28. Like anybody, I've grown, and developed, and learned new things, and had new experiences.

You don't know the character of any of these football players, and neither do I. You only know their stats and their rap sheets. Those are indicators of what may happen in the future, but our futures are mostly what we choose to make them. Some of these red-flagged guys turn out to be good people, like Marcus Thomas, who was recognized by the FBI last year for his great work with the National ID program. Some turn out to be intransigent like Lawrence Phillips or Maurice Clarett, and become guests of the state. You can make an educated guess who's who, but you never really know.

Most teams put a lot of resources into trying to determine who's worth the risk, and how much risk they're worth. Those evaluations occur on an individual basis. Some teams, most notably the Patriots, aren't very averse to so-called character risks, because they figure that their program and team culture keeps players on the straight and narrow. They're happy to buy low. It has worked out well for them with many players. The teams (seemingly other than Cincinnati and Oakland) know more than we do, and should be trusted.

I'll leave with maybe the key question of all of this. How fair is it for you, given your own personal situation, to expect kids from very different situations than yours, to have never made a mistake? It seems to me that when we say somebody has good character, that's another way of saying that he behaves in the same way that we do. We're therefore making ourselves the model for good behavior and moral uprightness, and is any of us really that? Kids screw up, and it's not fair for me to criticize mistakes when I made the same ones, just because it's been a decade since I made them. I believe those who did make mistakes can stop making them, because I'm a person who did.

So, remember that, and reconcile it with some player you don't know, the next time you feel the instinct to say that he has bad character. That was me in 2000, and you have an idea, nine years later, of how I turned out. Most people aren't irredeemable. Every day can be a new day, and when we give a person the chance to pleasantly surprise us, and the encouragement and support to keep doing the right things, we can be rewarded in amazing ways.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations -- 2009 NFL Draft

TedBartlett905 — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 02:37:57 -0000

You know, this has been a great weekend for MHR. Our leader got to cover the draft as a credentialed member of the legitimate media, our staff kept the information flowing, and our community contributed thousands of comments and many outstanding Fanposts throughout the two days. It was a triumph for this site, and now I am exhausted. And, yes, it's back to the day job tomorrow, for another five days. Please forgive me if this is a shorter than usual ST&NO, but my eyes hurt and my fingers are tired. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. Events like the Draft always seem to bring trolls to our community, which is a model of respect and civility which any sports blog would be envious of. I personally thank all of our regulars who went out of their way to educate these visiting trolls that MHR is different than what they're used to elsewhere. The staff is under marching orders not to engage with trolls, and we try really hard not to. What is impressive is that most members aren't under any such orders, and do the right thing anyway, out of common sense. I applaud this community, but that's nothing new.

Sometimes, people like the guy at right visit our site.....

And we have to remember who we are, and help them understand what MHR is all about. Give yourselves a pat on the back for getting it.

2. Today's Donny Deutsch Big Idea is to A xe ourselves the following question: From the last day of the 2008 season, to now, is there any position group except QB where we are significantly less talented?

Hmmmmmmmmm.......

RB - We're absolutely more talented here than we were on December 28th, and it's not even debatable. Knowshon Moreno is the most talented back we've had since at least Clinton Portis, and some useful guys like J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter, and LaMont Jordan were brought in to compete with Peyton Hillis, Ryan Torain, and Selvin Young for roster spots. That is a lot of talent right there.

WR - Jabar Gaffney is a solid upgrade over Darrell Jackson, and Kenny McKinley has the potential to be a good slot receiver. Also, Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall are a year older, and more experienced. This position is also upgraded.

TE - I liked the Richard Quinn selection for his blocking ability, and I never loved Nate Jackson the way some people do. I'll call this group's quality level neutral though.

OL - I actually liked the selection of Seth Olsen, which puts me in the minority of the staff. Since everybody is back from last season, this is at least neutral, but almost certainly improved, with the expected growth of young players like Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Chris Kuper, Tyler Polumbus, and Kory Lichtensteiger

Front 7 - Good heavens, why didn't the Broncos take any defensive linemen? The world is coming to an end.

Well, first of all, they did. Robert Ayers is a blue-chip talent at DE, who is notable for both his stoutness against the run, and ability to rush the passer. He's not a two-gap player, but he's a tough one-gap player like Luis Castillo. As for the rest, I believe in Marcus Thomas, and I think people are sleeping on Ronald Fields, who is a good player. I also continue to like Kenny Peterson. I don't have any particular reason to believe in Carlton Powell, but I hope he does well, and I did like the Everette Pedescleaux CFA signing. It's too bad there weren't more zero-technique and five-technique players available in the Draft, but you do the best you can with the cards you're dealt.

As for LBs, I liked the Andra Davis signing, and I still think he can be solid inside. I hope D.J. Williams can also, but I really expect him to continue to underwhelm me. (Meaning no change.) I do have high hopes for Wesley Woodyard, and for the conversion of Elvis Dumervil to more of a hybrid player. If either Jarvis Moss or Tim Crowder works out, even better. I think this is a decent upgrade over what was a bad group last season.

DB - This will be a completely new group, save for Champ Bailey (and depending on who has a good camp, probably two out of three between Jack Williams, Josh Bell, and Josh Barrett.) The McDaniels/Xanders strategy is clear here. Bring in so many bodies that the survivors have to be good players. It is very likely that Champ, Andre Goodman, Brian Dawkins, and Renaldo Hill start. That's four good players. It's a near certainty that Alphonso Smith will be the nickelback right away, because he has special talent. Darcel McBath and David Bruton will both almost certainly make the team, Bruton for being a great special-teamer as much as anything. That's 7 locks to make the roster. I'll optimistically project dramatic improvement by Jack Williams, and outstanding special-teams play for Josh Barrett to give us our nine, with McBath able to fill in at CB as needed. This group is dramatically upgraded, though, no matter how you look at it.

ST - I think that the coverage units will be tremendously improved by virtue of the addition of so many good athletes in the draft. Kicker and punter look the same, though I think Prater will do better this year. Arrington probably returns kickoffs if he makes the team, and he's excellent at that. This also seems upgraded.

So, I Axe again.... what is there to really be upset about? I think our team is greatly improved from 1-53, and there's no reason to think that a division championship is out of the question with this group of players and coaches. Remember last year's Dolphins, who went from 1-15 to 11-5 by improving the quality of the bottom of their roster, executing on offense with minimal mistakes, and being sound on defense. This Broncos team is more talented than that Dolphins team, or for that matter, last year's Falcons team. Have some faith.

Now we smell good, in a masculine sort of way (sorry ladies, you're outnumbered here) and we know the answer, because we Axed. (Axe is in no way responsible for the content of this ad, but donations are being accepted and checks may be made out to Ted Bartlett Foundation, with the word "Foundation" written in pencil, please. Thank you.)

3. Optimism doesn't cost anything. This is my new mantra lately, though it pretty much tracks with how I have thought my whole life. I might make some orange-and-blue bumper stickers that say "Optimism doesn't cost anything."

And by the way, calling me a homer doesn't hurt my feelings. I want to see my team do well, and I'd rather not have anything to complain about. Having a constant need to whine is a trait best observed in ex-wives and Raiders fans.

4. The First Amendment is not germane to a setting like MHR, and anybody who graduated from middle-school civics class should understand that. MHR does not represent the United States Congress, and by deleting a troll FanPost, we're not making laws which prohibit the free exercise of religion, infringe the freedom of speech, infringe the freedom of the press, limit the right to peaceably assemble, or limit the right to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

By deleting troll posts, we're simply declining to allow this community to devolve into the DP message board, or other cesspools of hatred, vulgarity, and misinformation, and other related forms of douche-baggery. See the MHR Code of Conduct for questions on what is or isn't appropriate behavior. But don't ignorantly invoke the U.S. Constitution when you clearly don't understand what it's saying.

5. I wish that the Morans dude would have turned sideways a little bit and lost the American flag bandanna, so we could get the fuller effect of what seems very likely to be a terrific mullet. I wonder how he feels about literally millions of people laughing at his ~~poor spelling and~~ general ridiculousness? Like that old battle-axe Mrs. Houlihan, of Pembroke, Massachusetts, said back in 1983, SPELLING COUNTS!!!! (And Mr. Mackey chimes in - "Don't get a mullet, either, mmmkay?")

Edit: It seems that the Morans guy may have intentionally spelled "Morons," as "Morans," as a way to criticize Congressman James Moran of Virginia for opposing the US war against Iraq. Thanks to Darin H for bringing this to my attention in the comments below. So, maybe he's not a bad speller, and I retract the implication that he is.

The content of this sign is, however, troll-like, and I stand by the use of this picture as an example of troll-like behavior. And spelling DOES count, and mullets and American flag bandannas ARE horribly tacky.

6. My co-worker said she'd read this if I included some content about something she is interested in, like midgets. I'm always trying to grow the readership, so here goes. Midgets don't actually like to be called midgets. They prefer to be called Little People. Think of it as being analogous to when the private military company/mercenary outfit Blackwater Worldwide re-branded themselves as Xe, (which is pronounced Zee.) Of course, Blackwater mostly re-branded because people got upset about some of their tax-dollar-(very-well)-compensated mercenary personnel indiscriminately shooting innocent Iraqi citizens, which is presumably very different than the reason behind the midget re-branding.

In any case, according to the outstanding film In Bruges, midgets... err, Little People, have a high rate of suicide, which is very sad. If you see a little person, you should try to make him or her feel good about themselves, because most of them are probably the salt of the Earth. For more on Little People, visit the Little People of America website. This sounds like a good place to claim to be diverting those donations to the Ted Bartlett ~~Foundation~~. :)

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Back to bidness, I want to talk about Draft picks for a minute, and how they're valued. There is a cottage industry around the NFL Draft, and those who profit from it are incentivized to condition fans to think of a Draft Pick as an important asset. I reject that thinking, because the only thing which gives a Draft Pick any cause for being considered an asset is that it ultimately confers upon the owner the right to pick a player on a specific date and at a specific time in the future. The player is the physical asset at the end of the rainbow, the thing (thing? why the hell not?) which will do work for you in helping your business to operate successfully.

To repeat myself, (in keeping with the best practices of political messaging,) when you own a Draft Pick, you own the right to someday pick a player, so the Draft Pick is actually a derivative asset, like a futures contract. A lot can happen between today and the future date when your derivative asset becomes a physical asset (a player.) There could be an unexpectedly large number of underclassmen deciding to stay in school next season, like there was, to some extent, this season. You could go 0-16, or you could go 16-0, or anything in between, affecting the sequence in which your pick will ultimately be exercisable. You may be up against the cap, and unable to afford the absurd cash outlay that accompanies a high draft pick. Your general manager could get hit by a bus, and your owner could instantaneously go senile and hire Matt Millen to replace him.

The point is, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding any derivative asset. Remember when every energy analyst in the world was convinced that Oil would be $300 per barrel by 2010? Light Sweet Crude futures traded at $50.46 on Friday at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Do you want to be the guy who went long on oil futures in July 2008? At that time it seemed like a great idea to buy a contract guaranteeing delivery of oil to you at $250 a barrel in July 2010, (so your speculating butt could turn around and eventually sell it to somebody who actually wanted to take delivery of some barrels of oil.) Now? Not so much. You'll be getting some oil delivered to your doorstep, and you'll be contractually paying at least 3 times more for it than market price, and probably 4 or 5 times. You lose.

The Broncos could have kept their #1 next year, but it would be a virtually valueless derivative asset until April 2010. There is an opportunity cost to sitting on it. Instead, they trusted their evaluation of Alphonso Smith, and took a sure thing for something which has a generally accepted selling value of a mid-second rounder this year. In other words, they traded the equivalent of this year's 48th pick for this year's 37th pick.

The Panthers got killed last April for trading this year's #1 to Philadelphia for Jeff Otah last season, and he was the best all-around RT in the NFL as a rookie. They would do that deal again in a heartbeat, and I'd do the Smith deal again in a heartbeat also. He's going to be a big-time player, who will make more game-changing plays in his first 3 games than a good player like D.J. Williams has made in his whole career.

We'll see you next Monday morning for more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Have a great week!!!

Around The League Day 1 Wrap-Up

TedBartlett905 — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 02:38:00 -0000

I had a good time being the comments editor on the live threads today, and I also agreed to write this Around The League Day 1 Wrap-Up. While I am not branding it as an edition of ST&NO, I'll try to keep it Shallow and Narrow, like always.

1. To keep this family-friendly, John Clayton is a total fool. Peep this from his Day 1 wrap-up:

5. Denver rookie head coach Josh McDaniels doesn't have a grasp on how to build a team. He signed three running backs in free agency and drafted another (Knowshon Moreno). And then he sent Denver's first-round choice in 2010 to Seattle for this year's 37th overall choice, which he used to pick cornerback Alphonso Smith. That's bizarre. Mike Shanahan must be laughing at that one.

I wasn't initially that thrilled with the Moreno pick, but it's growing on me. What helped was listening to Michael Lombardi say something that made temendous sense. He said that in a 3 WR set, a star RB makes a defense defend the box, which in turn, opens the WRs up to do damage. I'm an offense guy, and I never really thought about it in those specific roster construction terms, though it's obvious. Yesteday, he talked about how Chris Johnson opened everything up for the Titans this season, by being a star back in a mostly 3-wide scheme. So I am happy with Moreno.

Clayton's non sequitur about signing 3 RBs in free agency is typical of him. They're guys who will compete for a roster spot, and either will or will not make the team. We only want the best players making our team, John.

To the point of trading next year's 1st rounder, I come back to the concept of the time value of money (TVM.) My first bachelor's degree was in Finance, and you spend a lot of time on TVM in that kind of program. Basically, a dollar today is worth more than a dollar next year, mostly because there is certainty in the purchasing power of that dollar today. This applies to future draft picks, which tend to be discounted to the middle of the next round. So, next year's one is equivalent to a mid 2nd round pick next year. The 37th pick is a high second round pick, so it's theoretically a good deal.

Mike Mayock thinks this is a weak draft, and that's fine, but it is utterly meaningless in this case, and he and Charley Casserly tried to make it seem meaningul. Alphonso Smith is a smart, productive, versatile, high-character player who can contribute right now. His quality is completely independent of anybody else's quality, or the group's aggregate quality. It has absolutely zero to do with the overall depth of a draft class.

By the way, I like Ayers, McBath, and Quinn too. Read HT's article which focuses on the Broncos' haul, as he did a great job making sense of it.

As for Clayton, I wonder if he himself is claiming to have a great grasp of how to build a team. Maybe he fancies himself as another Ernie Accorsi or something. All I know is, when you're just some bug-eyed tool pundit (meant negatively, as always,) you should be careful showing such certitude about something which has a lot of potential to be thrown back in your face for years to come.

Rectum? Damn near killed him.

2. AFC One-Liners!!!! Yay!!!

a. New England's first three picks were terrific (Chung, Brace, Butler) but the Vollmer pick was a reach.

b. The Jets got their man in Mark Sanchez, and have to be happy to have something so exciting to sell their fans as a new 1st round QB.

c. Perplexing day for the Bills, with a not-ready-for-primetime pass rusher, 2 interior offensive linemen (when you need a Left Tackle,) and a slow CB.

d. Miami picked three great athletes in Vontae Davis, Pat White, and Sean Smith, and followed their profile very closely.

e. Baltimore got great value, as usual, with Michael Oher and Paul Kruger.

f. Cincinnati picked two productive guys with character red flags, in Andre Smith, and Rey Maualuga.

g. I liked Cleveland's trade with the Jets, but the guys they picked sort of made this a loser of a first day.

h. The Steelers kind of bombed too, with no offensive line help appearing.

i. Houston improved their defense with Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin, and will be in the playoff mix this season.

j. For Indianapolis, I like Donald Brown, and am less high on Fili Moala, but mostly, I wonder why no WR?

k. Jacksonville set out to solidify the OT spot, and did so resoundingly with Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton.

l. Tennessee got good value with Kenny Britt and Sen'Derrick Marks, though neither projects as a star.

m. Oakland did the Al Davis shuffle, and picked two guys who are going to be busts.

n. Kansas City reached for Tyson Jackson, but he'll be a good player for them.

o. San Diego picked a good player in Larry English, but Ryan Clady will dominate him regularly.

3. And now, NFC One-Liners!!!! Double-Yay!!!!!

a. Dallas sat out, which created an ironical situation which was used to stupidly criticize Denver's desire to jump in for Alphonso Smith.

b. The Giants did very well, taking 3 guys who will start sooner rather than later (Nicks, Sintim, Beatty.)

c. Philadelphia continued to overhaul its offense by getting good pick values for Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

d. Washington kept their first-rounder (!!) and took Orakpo, who hopefully isn't soft and used to being coddled, like nearly all former Texas Longhorns.

e. Chicago sat out also, because like their QB, they're too cool for school.

f. Guru and I disagree, but I like Detroit's Day 1 performance, especially Brandon Pettigrew.

g. For the Packers, great pick on Raji, and questionable pick on Clay Matthews, given their roster.

h. Minnesota did great with Percy Harvin, and added a potential good RT in Loadholt.

i. Atlanta got a good player in Peria Jerry, and a high-risk/high-return player in William Moore.

j. Carolina was kind of meh, in my opinion, but I get what they were doing.

k. I hope New Orleans isn't planning on leaving Malcolm Jenkins in a lot of one-on-one island situations.

l. Josh Freeman will eventually be a very good NFL QB for the Buccaneers.

m. Arizona strengthened themselves with Wells and Brown.

n. Taking Jason Smith and James Laurinaitis was like hitting back to back doubles for the Rams.

o. The Niners did well to land Michael Crabtree, but the decision to trade out of the second round was weird.

p. The Seahawks are going to be back to being competitive this season, given decent health, and Curry and Unger will start right away.

4. Teams which gave me a warm fuzzy include Baltimore, Miami, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Minnesota, New England, the Giants, and our own Broncos.

5. Teams which I judge to have spit the bit include Dallas, Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and most especially, Oakland.

6. Did I mention that I think John Clayton is a fool?

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. NFL Network did a terrific job with the coverage of the Draft, with the exception of occasionally letting Jamie Dukes appear on their air. He claims that Florida State is the Harvard of the south. All I know is, I spent 6 years in Jacksonville, and the least bright people in town are overwhelmingly the people wearing garnet and gold, so I think he's incorrect about his alma mater.

Anyway, the things that ESPN does which make me want to throw something didn't happen on NFLN, and it was most refreshing. Minimal cliches, no Berman pomposity, a complete lack of Kiper irritability, and zero terrible suits (even from Prime Time!!!!) Kudos to them for doing a good job.