Most complicated playoff scenario ever?

TedSimmonsFan — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 15:53:20 -0000

Looking at the standings in the ESPN "Hunt For October" page, and not being concerned with the Cardinals' playoff matchups, I started examining just how complex Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps even more of next week could get. Here's what I came up with:

Mets: Lose their last 4, to the Cardinals today and Florida over the weekend

Phillies: Lose to Atlanta today, then lose 2 of 3 to the Nationals

Atlanta: Win their last 4, over Philly today and Houston over the weekend

Cubs: Win 2 of their remaining 4

Milwaukee: Win their remaining 4 over SD

Colorado: Win 1 of their remaining 4

San Diego: Lose their remaining 4 to Milwaukee

Arizona: Make sure that Colorado wins no more than 1 of their remaining 4; that is, if Colorado beats the Dodgers tonight, then Arizona needs to sweep Colorado to make this scenario play out, otherwise, if Colorado loses tonight, then Colorado needs to take 1 of 3 from Arizona

Resulting standings would be:

NL East

Team	W	L	.PCT	GB
New York	87	75	.537	--
Philadelphia	87	75	.537	--
Atlanta	87	75	.537	--

NL Central

Team	W	L	.PCT	GB
Chicago	85	77	.525	--
Milwaukee	85	77	.525	--

NL West

Team	W	L	.PCT	GB
Arizona*	92	70	.568	--
San Diego	87	75	.537	5
Colorado	87	75	.537	5

*-Arizona could end up anywhere from 90-72 to 92-70 with this scenario still playing out

At the end of the day Sunday, we would have:

Arizona as NL West champs

Chicago and Milwaukee in a one-game playoff on Monday to determine NL Central champs

That's the easy part. After that it gets crazy. There's a 3-way tie for first in the NL East that would have to be resolved. Then the two teams who don't win the NL East would be involved with the two other 87-75 teams in the NL West to determine who the wild card is.

Fortunately for the folks in Bud Selig's office and the National League office, it's not likely to go this way.

Are the Mets bad enough to end the season on a 7-game losing streak at home?

Are the Phillies going to lose 2 of 3 to Washington at home this weekend?

Is Milwaukee going to overcome their manager's myopia and sweep San Diego?

Is Colorado going to suddenly go cold and drop 3 out of 4?

I can see the answer to any one of these questions being yes, or maybe two of them, but not all of them. And all of them are needed in order to reach this 5-way tie at 85-77, along with Atlanta winning their last 4.

So, while it was fun to look at the math, I still think the most likely scenario is NY and Arizona as division winners, with the Phillies as the wild card, and a one-game playoff between Chicago and Milwaukee for the NL Central.

However, if the weird stuff described above happens, the MLB and NL offices will be scrambling -- the playoff coin tosses that have already been held don't have any contingencies for a 4-way wild card tie, and none of the coin tosses held so far involve Atlanta.

TSF

SB Nation User Blog: TedSimmonsFan

Most complicated playoff scenario ever?