The early word form the punditocracy is that MIA will roll. No surprise, that, but it projects the James Wade Indy Romp as the norm. It forgets the troubles the heat have had vs lineups that protect the rim and work inside, namely Indy in games 1 &2 or last years finals (yes, still relevant). Or what the C's did to them with a healthy Aver Bradley. Can the Cs make it happen again? Here's how.

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Running commentary on the trade and line-up threads has the C's down as 4th in the East and a 2nd round exit. Since Doc will likely not expend his vets for HCA, a 4th seed is reasonable. Come the playoffs, however, DA may have positioned the C's to deal with potential rivals better than some of our naysayers think. To paraphrase an old song, the Celtics are "another year older but deeper in depth." More after the jump for potential playoff match-ups.

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"The issue isn't how much money the business of basketball makes. The issue is that basketball isn't a business in the first place.  Forbes magazine annually estimates the value of every professional franchise, based on standard financial metrics. When sports teams change hands, however, the actual sales price is invariably higher. Forbes is evaluating franchises strictly as businesses. But they are being bought by people who care passionately about sports — and the $90 million premium that new owners were willing to pay represents the psychic benefit of owning a sports team (not unlike the physic benefit of owning a rare painting].

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Day DA had not gone all-in for KG.  Instead,  drafts Noah but did the deal for Ray.  C's have a front line of Al, Noah and Perk to go with Ray, Paul and Rondo.  Gomes off the bench.  Youth and energy vs brittle age. Who's to say how far they could have gone.  Maybe not fare enough, but as it turns out, we went only so far with PRK.

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Built on the Celtics template but younger, faster stronger.  Rose is Rondo with a shot.  Booze-Noah a quicker and stronger KG and (departed ) Perk.  Their wings dont have Ray's shot or Paul's catalog of moves but can lock down the perimeter. Did to the Heat in one night what it took the C's three to accomplish.

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Interesting. Pen. Is Mighter closed out their recap for Sat's loss (our win) witht the following "Game 4 coming up on Monday...gut check time for the Heat."  Not get back on track.  Not Boston still has a steep hill to climb. But gut check.  Reading between the lines, it would allude to MIAs problems with playing from behind and closing. With being front runners.  I think this is right and the C's (potentially) can take the edge in terms of morale and momentum.

The absence of Perk's low-post presence has been done to death, but do they miss him on the screen and roll as well? As Johnny Ludden notes in his his latest yahoo sprots piece,"Perkins sets the screens to free Oklahoma City’s shooters."  He sets some hard picks, Perk.  Wonder if their absence has  anything to do with the scoring droughts? Ray, 'specially?  Another contribution his teammates appreciated--and may have  been underestimated. 

Here's the link. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AoCZcgT__5ultqlH5zXPFAW8vLYF?slug=jy-ludden_perkins_gives_thunder_shot_against_lakers_041111

From today's Globe; the key [to the comeback] was shortening the rotation, mixing the reserves with starters, Rivers said. “We wanted to make sure the bench wasn’t in with five bench guys. We wanted one or two starters in together and I thought that helped them.’’

This is a sword that cuts two ways. The starters steady the reserves but the reserves energize the starters. The surprise is why Doc hasnt taken this approach more often.  He is in fact one of the few coaches to field an all-bench line-up.

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What to make of Friday's listless game vs Thunder on Friday?  It's hardly cause for panic--when these guys are on, they are tough. Period. The problem is with being 'on'.  When they show up in cruise control and things start slipping away, they dont seem able to snap out of it. Same thing in the loss to the Cavs. No switch, no gear.

I think its like this -- it takes great energy to Celtics defence. If they dont bring that energy, then the game becomes  a shooting contest.  When that happens, this Celtics team is at a disadvantage because the dont have any one guy who can turn it on at will (Pierce used to, now is best when he picks his spots. KG? never was nor will be. Ray? needs set-ups.  Rondo? Not a shooter. And no microwave off the bench). Nor do they have a dominant athlete  who can get out there and wreck havoc.  Rondo again is the closest, but has to do it with speed, not strength and, as noted, his toolkit is short a key item--that outside shot. 

So I dont think this club is bored (Sheed Syndrome) but I do think every now and then they relax on D, and when that happens, they loose some of their advantages and dont seem able to compensate by scoring at will. Come the playoffs, be assured, they will be in gear. In the "round of 82", however, there will be nights off. Just a shame for the fans they took one at home.
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The lack of a 4th option is a limit (for now anyway) on what the South Beach Boyz can get done. Les Amigos took 54 of MIAs shots but LB only connected on 5/15. Not much help from the rest of the gang (Eddie's shooting woes continue).  Meanwhile, Millsap cut loose for 46 and Deron Willaims added 21, showing the Heat's other weak points (power rotation, pg) are still...weak.

 http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AnM8X.ryxU9IltCCF7H5KGq8vLYF?slug=ap-jazz-heat

Ive been thinking that MIA might sputter a bit if they played  glorified pick-up ball.  So did Scores and More on the SBNation main site: "...  just look at the offensive sets, the Heat looked ... well, they looked a lot like they did last year. They halfheartedly ran through their sets for about 10 seconds until someone got an isolation, at which point everyone stood around and watched. Once that stopped working, Erik Spoelstra went to his "give the ball to the star and have everyone clear out" offense, which got them back in the game, but isn't the way you win consistently.

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team and coaching trump talent. Took away the Cavs attack and struck where they vulnerable.  Worth reading the whole but his quote stood out:  "Boston is for real, man. I don't know what happens from here on out, but for these six games, this team worked up something special. Something with heart. Something that sweats, too. Something to be proud of. Something else. These C's are legitimate. These Celtics are to be feared."

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Behind-the-Box-Score-where-Boston-took-this?urn=nba,241109

Guarding Lebron is a LOAD.  It's asking a lot for Pierce to carry that burden and score as well.  Quis did a capable job LBJ in limited minutes.  Why not expand that role, either as a straight sub for PP or as a switch?  Paring those two confounded the Cavs in their early season meeting.  Why not give it another shot. It could help save the captain's legs for down the stretch. Second, Rondo tore up the Cavs in the first half but slowed down in the 2nd. Not the first time Doc rode him a little too hard and too long.  Doc should maybe go sooner to Tony A as a sub at point. He seems of late  able to hold his on at the point and would be able keep Mo from going off.   All that might mean a few less minutes for Ray but I'm ok with that.

I would'nt be averse to PP or Quis guarding Jamison, and saving Glenn, maybe Sheldon to take on Andy. Perks should be mainly on Shaq patrol. Wallace should ride the pine, wave a towel and CTC (collect the check). Not that I have great hopes of any of this happening.  Not confident that Doc knows  best how to deploy his roster.

No ones doubts Rondo is competitive.  But is it in a way that helps the club? I'm thinking of the stories that have leaked out about his maturity.  About hating on teammates that weren't ready for his passes etc. It makes one wonder:  is he frustrated with his mates (wont/cant run?). Bored?  My concern:  unlike the hot competitive nature of Bird or Jordan, that lit a fire under teammates, is Rondo's a cold steel that ices them out?

When's the last time you saw Paul Pierce make a desperation drive?  Times past, he could be counted on to make several desperation drives in traffic during the course of a game.   Sometimes he made it work, get a bucket, get fouled, but often, a turnover or charge ensued.  Now,  the Captain is picking his spots. And doing it with killer efficiency.  If he has a lane, he takes it, but he's just as apt to kill teams with pull-up jumpers and dagger threes, or hit the open man.  The process started several seasons ago under Doc, gathered steam with the arrival of KG and Ray, but really seems to up to full speed this season.  Dont have the numbers in from of me, but his shooting % seems to be up.  And while he has been scoring at critical points in the first 5 games, he isnt doing it by demanding the ball and forcing the issue, but by reading the situation and finding open space.  Relying on craft, he has become more efficient. As the Cavs and Hornets found out when Pierce turned on the guile down the stretch.

To recap: the (self-styled) superman goes public re wanting more touches. Classy.

Memo to Msr. Howard: more touches might be forthcoming if you developed your foot-work, post moves and spins so as to be a reliable option in the paint, worked on a step-back jumper to keep defenders honest and passed effectively out of the post.  Alas, the lad would appear to spends more time in the weight room than the hardwood.  We all know you can dunk son.  What else you got?

Memo to Orlando mngt.  Clifirod Ray. Remember him? Think he might have helped. ooops. Thank you.

Reading a list of top sixth men around the league, I noted no one off the Cavs bench made the list. Wally has been serviceable, at best, Gibson and Pavlovic, barley that. Of course, if you have a Lebron, that may not matter so much, but, if the annointed one is slowed down or has an off shooting night, it would be up to Lurch, Del and Mo to step up because there wont be much help coming from the pine.

Eddie House and his three-point shot did make the list for the Cs, and Marbury is starting to  bring quality minutes as well. Still, is going to be up to the starters of bottle up Leborn (well, put some anke weights on him) and harass their shooters.

http://schallertpr.alliancesports.com/content.asp?CID=939209

While there is nothing good about Leon Powe's injury, for him or the team, it does have an interesting ripple effect.  Doc has been forced to go with Davis, and, mercifully, BBD has responded.  No back and forth between Davis/Powe. One advantage of Davis is that he (and, now, Scal) provides the spacing that Pierce needs to do his thing. Also, Doc no longer has the option of playing Davis and Powe together.  That lineup seemed to give up too much length.  While Mikki Moore can never anywheres near near the force Leon has been, he did use hsi length to good use in game 3.   In the best of worlds, the C's would have Leon--and KG!-back, but they are finding ways to live in the world as it is. 

The consensus amongst Marbury  naysayers is that he is a me-firster on court.  Well, watching him play vs the Pacers, I thought, dang, he hit the open man well enough. Then, I  thought, gee, he played for Larry Brown, who can be, uhm, demanding on PGs.  Then I came across this piece by Charles Modian over at RealGM,who makes a case that "Marbury is the most mismanaged, miscoached, and misunderstood Knick talent that I have ever seen."  Have a look.  TenD.

http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_pieces/747/20090301/the_incredible_mismanagement_of_stephon_marbury/