SB Nation User Blog: TerraByte

NFL 2008: The Players

TerraByte — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 02:51:50 -0000

In case you were wondering …

On opening day in the NFL, there were 1,696 players, 53 on each of the 32 teams. Johnson and Smith are the most common last names; there are 29 of each (this was before Chad became OchoCinco). There are 43 players named Chris.

Most active NFL players were born in the month of August, followed by September, January and March. The fewest were born in April and February. Being born on February 29, Darian Barnes of the Bills is the only NFL player who only gets a birthday party every four years. William Gay (Steelers), Stephen Tulloch (Titans) and Ray Edwards (Vikings) were all New Years babies. Josh McCown (Panthers), Brock Berlin (Rams), Stanford Keglar (Titans), Will Smith (Saints), and La'Roi Glover (Rams) were born on the Fourth of July. Marcus Trufant (Seahawks), Limas Sweed (Steelers), Thomas Williams (Jaguars) and Shawn Andrews (Eagles) were born on Christmas. Kevin Boss and I share the same birthday, January 11.

NFL Players represent 250 colleges. Miami (44 players) and Florida State (37 players) lead the list of colleges. By State, the most players went to college in Florida (136 players) and California (132 players). Eighteen colleges in Texas and fifteen colleges in Michigan are represented by NFL players. No NFL players came from colleges in Alaska or Vermont. By region, colleges in the Deep South, from Texas to Florida, and the Midwest, from Ohio to Minnesota, provide the NFL with nearly half of their players.

The youngest NFL player is the Raiders’ 21 year old Darren McFadden. The oldest is our own 44 year old John Carney, who is two years older than the next oldest player, Jeff Feagles. Feagles, on the other hand (or foot) has one more year of experience than Carney, the most in the NFL. Some teams consider kickers and punters to be easily replaceable, but of the 7 players with 17 or more years of NFL experience (other than Feagles), 4 are kickers and 2 are quarterbacks.

The shortest player is the Chargers’ 5’6: Darren Sproles, who is a foot and a quarter shorter than the Raven’s 6’9" Jared Gaither. The Bills’ Langston Walker is the heaviest player listed. At 366 pounds he weighs about two and a quarter times what the Saints’ Martin Gramatica does. The leanest player is the Bills’ 6"0" 172 pound punter Brian Moorman. The biggest is the Eagles’ 6’0" 350 pound offensive lineman Nick Cole, still two inches and thirty pounds short of a Fridge.

Gridiron Hyenas?

TerraByte — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 03:18:30 -0000

Giants have right guys in place to make another run in 2008

Forget all those naysayers that predict the Cowboys or Eagles will take the NFC East in 2008. Thomas George at NFL.com has a very complementary and realistic assessment of the Giants. The most telling quote, I thought, was this one:

Several NFL scouts attended the game. I asked a few what were they examining? A handful offered: "Anyone the Giants cut. They can't keep 'em all." Such is the status of the Giants' personnel department, led by general manager Jerry Reese. NFL teams are intensely interested in the Giants' scraps. This is the way it used to be every year at places like New England and San Francisco during their Super Bowl championship runs. Quite a nice compliment to the Giants.

In my mind, this sounds like an opportunity for making some trades. For other teams, it would be like trading up in the draft. Make a trade because if you wait some other team may beat you to the player. And maybe the Giants can get some value for Moss or Droughns or some other player at a position they are deep at. With all the hyenas waiting for the upcoming cut down dates, any rookie we release may not make it to our practice squad.

Giants Coach Extortion Bust

TerraByte — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 00:53:25 -0000

What a year 2007 was for Tom Coughlin. I'm sure he was thinking 2008 would be a challenge too, getting back to the SB anyway, but he never expected this.

It sounds like everything is now under control but I wonder what he'll be thinking the next time he visits Philadelphia. And he's not even running for office ...

(If the link doesn't work, just go here. http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2008/0814081giants3.html)

Offense or Defense?

TerraByte — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 18:15:11 -0000

here’s been a lot of talk about individuals lately, first Shockey and Strahan, and now Burress. So, as a change of pace, I thought I’d write about a team issue. What’s more important, offense or defense? Sure you have to have both, but are they equally important?

via i16.photobucket.com

Consider this graph of the average, 1990-through-2007, points allowed per game by defenses (on the vertical axis) versus points scored per game by offenses (on the horizontal axis). The graph is divided into four quadrants representing above and below average points per game. So, for example, the Giants had an above average defense and a below average offense for the period 1990-2007.

Of the 32 teams in the league, 21 made it to a Super Bowl between 1990 and 2007. Of those 21 teams:

8 went once and lost
5 went once and won
3 went twice and split
2 teams were undefeated (Dallas 3-0; Denver 2-0)

The Patriots had the best record at 3-2. The Bills had the worst record, having lost 4 times to 3 different teams (Dallas twice, New York, Washington). The Giants had 2 wins in 3 appearances; not as many appearances as Buffalo but 2 more wins.

Now consider this table. The 13 teams with both above average (i.e., strong) offenses and defenses appeared as one of the 36 participants and won the SB 61% of the time. Strong defenses appeared and won SBs 10% of the time more than strong offenses. But there’s a catch, there are a few more teams with above average defenses. When you adjust for the number of teams, strong defense still hold an edge but only by about 2% to 5%. So the defensive edge isn’t as great as we might think, at least over the past 17 years. In fact, it’s not statistically significant. But significance aside, even this slight edge might be important.

	Number of Teams	Played in the Super Bowl	Won the Super Bowl	Difference from What Would be Expected by Chance
	Number of Teams	Played in the Super Bowl	Won the Super Bowl	Appearances	Wins
Strong Offense - Strong Defense	13	61%	61%	20%	20%
Weak Offense - Strong Defense	7	22%	28%	0%	6%
Strong Offense - Weak Defense	4	11%	11%	-1%	-1%
Weak Offense - Weak Defense	8	6%	0%	-19%	-25%
All Strong Defenses	20	83%	89%	21%	26%
All Strong Offenses	17	72%	72%	19%	19%

What is interesting is that having an above average unit, either offense or defense, is better that having both units be below average. So if the salary cap limits your spending, put all your chips on one side of the ball.

Now, lets get back to complaining about Jeremy Shockey.

The Evolution of Giants Receiving

TerraByte — Fri, 23 May 2008 03:38:46 -0000

Hi. My name is TerraByte and I’m a numberholic. I analyze business data all day at work and then come home and analyze data from sports, politics, and anything else I can get my hands on. I’ve tried to cut back, but ETVal’s post on Jeremy Shockey sent me off on this bender.

I’ve always thought of the Giants as a running team. There was Little Joe, Rodney, Tiki, Ottis. Three yards and a cloud of dust. But all that has changed. Now we talk about Eli, Plaxico, Amani, and Jeremy. What happened? I believe the transition was the result of changes in coaching philosophy, the acquisition of more talented backup players, and the emergence of stars. Consider this graph of data on Giants receiving between the 1990 and 2007 seasons. To put the data into perspective, summaries of the coach, the team record, the percentage of plays that were passes, the QB with the most attempts, the overall pass completion rate, the number of passing TDs, and the receivers who accounted for 60% of the total team receptions appear at the bottom of the Figure.

via i16.photobucket.com

On average, about 46% of the plays called by Parcells, Handley, and Reeves were pass attempts compared to 51% for Fassel and Coughlin. The difference seems small, accounting for only about three additional pass plays per game, but the difference in perception is great. A change that may be related is the number of receivers used to receive 60% of the passes. In the Parcells era, Phil Simms spread the ball around to whoever could get open, so that four to five receivers accounted for 60% of the receptions. Since the 1999 season, usually only three receivers account for 60% of the receptions. I think this may be attributable to having better starting receivers.

The brown, red, and purple lines show total receptions, total passing yards, and yards per game. These lines show two interesting patterns. First, the lines parallel the same generally increasing trend as the percent of passing plays. Second, there is a notable increase in the receptions and yards from 1999 to 2003. I believe this increase reflects the emergence of the Collins to Toomer connection under Fassel.

The colors in the background of the Figure represent the percentages of receptions caught by backs (top), tight ends, and receivers (bottom). Since the Reeves era, wide receivers have caught about half of the passes. Receptions by backs dropped by half, from about 40% to 20%. This is certainly not a reflection of Tiki’s efforts, rather, I believe it shows the effects of tight ends. The three years after the retirement of Mark Bavaro did not feature tight ends. None made it into the top 60% of receptions. From 1994 through 1997, Howard Cross was one of the top four receivers three times and Aaron Pierce once. Then there was another dry spell until Jeremy Shockey arrived in 2002. Shockey’s effect was immediate and substantial. And as ETVal has pointed out, Shockey may think his role is being reduced but it doesn’t show in the numbers.

So with a pass-oriented coach calling the plays and stars players in place at QB, TE, and WR, I believe the evolution of Giants receiving will continue. This should be good news for Smith, Boss, Manningham, and maybe even Moss

Biggest Draft Busts

TerraByte — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:06:09 -0000

Being a single-minded Giants fan, when I think of draft busts I think mostly of the color Brown. Twice, in fact. There was a Bunch of others, I'm sure. Then there was a DE and a WR we must have been blind to pick.

What I don't often think about is how much better the Giants have fared compared to other teams. USA Today has, though, and with the exception of our new backup QB David Carr, there are no Giants on the list.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/gallery/football/s080423_draftbusts/flash.htm?gid=489&aid=2418

There have been players who underperformed because of injury, because they couldn't make the transition from college to the pros, and because the GM totally misjudged their abilities. Any thoughts on who the biggest busts were for the Giants (who cares about anybody else)?