SB Nation User Blog: The Actual El Guapo

In Order to Accurately Predict the Outcome of the White Sox - Rays Series, I Will Need to Know the Exact Location, Velocity and Direction of Every Particle in the Universe.

The Actual El Guapo — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 04:22:00 -0000

In today's fast-paced, cutthroat world of sports journalism, it has become vogue for columnists and even ordinary reporters to make predictions regarding the outcome of the events they cover. In closely observing this phenomenon, I have learned to my surprise (and horror) that not only are these predictions occasionally inaccurate, but they are sometimes even inconsistent. Why just yesterday, the author of one "reputable" website picked the Rays to win the forthcoming White Sox - Rays series in 4 games, while a famous local sports TV anchor picked the Sox to win in 5. Who to believe?

We, the editorial staff of South Side Sox, generally do not participate in these sorts of mundane pursuits; our loyal paying subscribers simply expect more than a simple "one man's opinion" type of off-the-cuff analysis regarding the outcome of the games we value so highly. However, we also recognize that, in order to remain competitive in the current dog-eat-dog environment of sports journalism, it is necessary for us to offer some views on this topic.

That is why I, your humble Junior Deputy Assistant Associate Editor, have taken it upon myself to consult with noted Predictive Statistician and Modeler, Michael J. Adair (PhD pending), of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Skokie Campus), in order to determine whether a definitive method may exist for determining the winner of the Sox-Rays series in advance. The following is a full, unedited transcript of that conversation:

MICHAEL J. ADAIR: Hello?

TAEG: Hello, is this noted Predictive Statistician and Modeler, Dr. Michael J. Adair?

MJA: Well, yes, this is Mike Adair -- but I'm not a doctor. Well, not yet anyway ... I'm a graduate student who is ...

TAEG (interrupting): But you consider yourself to be a doctor, right?

MJA: Uhhhh, well ... no. Who in the world would ever consider himself to be a doctor if he was not in fact a doctor? Look, who is this and what's this all ...

TAEG (interrupting again): Close enough, science boy. Now spill it: How do I figure out who will win the Sox-Rays series this week?

MJA (pause): The baseball games? Uh, look ... I don't know who you are or what you want, but I'm kinda busy right now, so ...

[NEXT 38 MINUTES OF TAPE INAUDIBLE - TAPE APPARENTLY SMEARED WITH BACON]

TAEG: ... so, you're saying that if I knew every single event that has ever occurred in the entire history of all things ever, as well as the current location, velocity, attitude and direction of evey single particle in the universe, I could definitively predict the Sox-Rays outcome?

MJA (long pause): Well ... I mean, theoretically ... making the assumptions that we discussed regarding hard determinism ... putting aside quantum theory, and imagining ... I mean, again, strictly on a theoretical basis, that such a thing were possible, I suppose ... but look, all this is obviously ridiculous, it's like saying ...

TAEG (interrupting): So your answer is yes. Thanks, gotta go now, you've been a big help [hangs up].

Now, I am no fool. I know it is impossible for any single person to determine the precise location, velocity, etc. of every single particle in the universe -- why the very concept is laughable! But this is where you, loyal reader/contributor, can help. I believe that between myself, the other editors and authors of this site, and you, the literally tens of readers of this fine publication, we can gather the relevant data and perform the critical analysis that has become the hallmark of SSS.

I am therefore requesting that each of you (yes, even you, "mjthor", if that is your real name), make a mental note of the location, velocity and direction of every particle that you can observe, and email the results to me, The Actual El Guapo at WTGTD@capslockbuttonisapparentlybrokenbeyondrepair.com. If everyone does their fair share, by gametime, we should have enough information to take a shot at this thing!

Poll

How about you? Do you want to help determine the exact location, velocity and direction of every particle in the universe so we can predict who will win the Sox-Rays series?

yes.

4 votes

no.

2 votes

I decline to take part in this poll on the grounds that the very concept of hard determinism robs the self of the very free will that makes life worth living.

13 votes

Wait, if I pick the previous option, won't I in fact be taking part in the poll even though the whole point was to decline to do so? Ha, can't trap me so easily! I'll pick this option instead!

19 votes

I swear to God, if you post one more of these things, I am going to kill this puppy. [please hold up puppy]

15 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

Commentary: It May be Difficult for the White Sox to Take an Early Lead in Their Best-of-Five Series Against the Tampa Bay Rays Today Because the Series Does Not Start Until Tomorrow.

The Actual El Guapo — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:11:52 -0000

I am second to no one in my belief that it is very important for the White Sox to get off to a good start in their best-of-five playoff series against the Tampa Bay Rays. I suspect many of you, fellow Sox fans, feel the same way. There are many reasons for this -- the first and most obvious being that the Rays have the home field advantage, with 3 of the possible 5 games in the series scheduled to take place in Florida, meaning the Sox must win at least one game on the road in order to take the series, and it might as well be Game 1. In addition, the Sox have a great deal of momentum built up from their 3 straight wins in elimination games, and it would be a shame to see that cut short. Finally, the Rays are a young team which has never been to the playoffs before, and therefore may be more prone to panic if they find themselves in an early hole than a more seasoned team would be.

However, with all that being said, the White Sox are at a distinct disadvantage if they wish to "steal" the first game of the series today for one primary reason: The first game of the series is not scheduled to take place until tomorrow. It seems to me that it may be difficult for the Sox to win Game 1 today (regardless of pitching match-up, lineup, momentum, etc.) given that game is simply not going to actually take place today. Admittedly, I am not, as I think I have made clear in the past, a "Stat-Head", or a "Research-Guy", or "Someone-Who-Is-Capable-Of-Even-The-Most-Basic-Level-Of-Rational-Thought", but I have done some digging, and have been unable to find even a single instance of a major league baseball team jumping off to the lead in a series prior to the commencement of that series (and certainly not on the road).

I realize that, as sports fans, we always bring the "win today" attitude to any game, and I would not have it any other way. However, without wanting to seem overly pessimistic, I think we, as more enlightened fans, owe it to ourselves to temper our expectations slightly regarding what the Sox will be able to accomplish today.

Poll

How About You? Can The Sox Steal Game 1 Today Even Though The Series Does Not Start Until Tomorrow?

yes.

51 votes

yes. Wait, I mean "no".

76 votes

clearly.

55 votes

are you really going to post one of these things every freakin' day? Isn't it getting old? Have you, at long last, no sense of decency, sir?

61 votes

243 votes | Poll has closed

Comprehensive Statistical Analysis: It Seems Likely that the Winner of Tonight's White Sox - Twins Game Will be Decided by "Runs Scored".

The Actual El Guapo — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 19:02:49 -0000

My post yesterday, addressing what I perceived to be the relative importance of the Tigers-White Sox game to the White Sox 2008 playoff chances, received a fair amount of criticism. Put briefly, some of the site's more sophisticated, "elite" readers seemed to believe that some of the points I made were overly simplistic. The proprietor of this site, in fact, has informed me that there were several threats by readers to cancel their subscriptions; which is of course particularly troubling in today's chilly economic climate.

By way of recompense, and to prove that the editors of this site can talk stats, "advanced metrics" and "the numbers game" as well as any of the so-called "experts" out there (and you know who you are, NS), this post therefore addresses a far more advanced topic: What I believe will be the key statistic in determining the winner of tonight's White Sox - Twins matchup.

After performing exhaustive research and thorough analysis of essentially all relevant methods of measurement -- including "OPS", "SLG", "OBP", "VORP", "WARP", "SNLVR", "Runs Created", "POS", "OPOS", "Moneyballyosity", "Winneritude", "Wanting-it-More-y-ness", " "Dirty-Uniform-Expectancy (ver.2/pants)", and "Caught-Stealing/Player-Height" -- I am prepared to present my findings.

Runs scored, fellow readers, runs scored - I truly believe that tonight's winner will be the team which scores the most total runs in the game. My findings indicate that it will be exceedingly difficult for either team to overcome a significant deficit in runs scored tonight; particularly if such team trails in that department at the end of the contest.

Unfortunately, space constraints do not permit me to "show my work", but I certainly welcome any challenges, questions, comments, etc. from you, the readers. Let me have it but, please, please, please: Be gentle!

Poll

How about you? Will runs scored be a key in determining the winner of tonight's game?

yes.

59 votes

no.

30 votes

blarghhh.

56 votes

kenwo=ratings.

64 votes

209 votes | Poll has closed

I Believe that Today's Make-Up Game Against the Tigers is an Important Game for the White Sox to Win if They Want to Make the Playoffs in 2008.

The Actual El Guapo — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 15:56:23 -0000

I know baseball has a 162 game season, and it's always dangerous to overemphasize the importance of a single game. However, without intending to be overly hyperbolic, I really do think that today's make-up game against the Tigers may be an important game for the Sox playoff chances in 2008 -- perhaps even in the top 20-25 of all of the games they will play this year.

Think about it: If the Sox win, they will have made a "statement" to their fans, the media and the rest of the league that they are serious about competing for a division title this year. What a confidence boost that would be! What a great message to send to the younger players! If they lose, on the other hand, the rest of the division will certainly gain confidence. They may even begin to think that the Sox may lack the heart to gut it out and win a relatively important game -- that they lack the discipline to want it bad enough, if you will.

Look, I know it's early and there is still 1/162nds of the season (nearly 1%) left. I'm sure a lot of you so-called "statheads" and "logic freaks" will disagree with this post. But to me (and I fully acknowledge that I speak only for myself here), this is just "one of those games" that it is important for the Sox to win if they want to make the playoffs in 2008.

Poll

How about you? Do you think today's make-up game against the Tigers is an important game for the Sox playoff chances in 2008?

yes.

91 votes

no.

50 votes

huh?

93 votes

oh.

91 votes

325 votes | Poll has closed

Jammer: Critical Thought in the Post-Modern Age; A Discussion.

The Actual El Guapo — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 22:53:03 -0000

Recently, an article was penned in this publication by a new contributor using the nom de plume "jammer". The contribution was harshly criticized by many -- with even stalwart author larry referring to it as possibly the least perceptive "post" offered in these pages in many a moon.

It is the considered opinion of this author, however, that the missive in question is not only unworthy of our scorn, fellow readers, but that it is indeed simultaneously both revolutionary and evolutionary. Ingenious in his use of apparently simple language and his use of the vulgar tongue, "jammer" has, with his manifesto (for it is, in fact, certainly no less than a manifesto), "Ozzie the Moron Strikes Again!", done no less than capture, in 12 brief sentences, the plight of post-modern man in the post-post-modern world.

Let us now examine the treatise in question in a sentence-by-sentence manner in the perhaps futile hope that we might perhaps catch a passing glimpse of its dazzling brilliance; to perhaps at least scratch the surface of its many-layered and perhaps impenetrable depths.

Because this task will be exceedingly difficult, requiring many hours of research, back-breaking labor and the assistance of many research fellows (and perhaps grants), I will begin today with an analysis of the first sentence of the “OTMSA” only. Future analysis will hopefully follow, should the initial attempts not further enfeeble this author's somewhat delicate constitution.

"Ozzie is an IDIOT!"

Even with his brief introductory assertion, “jammer” lets the reader know that this will not be a literary walk in the park. The term "Ozzie" appears at first glance to be a simple reference to major league baseball manager, Ozzie Guillen, the leader of the team bearing the moniker, "White Sox" and hailing from Chicago, Illinois. However, the use of the double "zz", or the last letter of the alphabet, has quite another possible meaning to the more literarily inclined.

In Greek, of course, the final letter of the alphabet is Omega. Accordingly, a reasonable interpretation of the use of the double "z" in the term "Ozzie" is that it is a in fact a reference to a double Omega. As we all know, the Double Omega reference (http://www.mentoring.org/about_mentor/mentor_store/double_omega/) in modern western society is most commonly associated with the award winning adult mentoring program known simply as Mentor. The term Mentor, of course, synonymous with the term Teacher.

With the statement that "Ozzie is an IDIOT" (emphasis in original), then, jammer makes a definitive (and quite devastating) statement concerning the futility of modern man's obsession with education and science as a means to gain perfect knowledge; to equal God himself. There are, says jammer, mysteries (whether one wishes to call them "religion", "quantum theory", or otherwise) that mankind simply cannot fathom; an abyss which has no bottom. jammer's critique is that, like those of Icarus himself, mankind's attempts to soar gracefully to the heavens are doomed to broken failure on the rocky shoals of reality. Prometheus Unbound, indeed.

Next: "He has to be at the bottom 5 of mlb managers. He either leaves his pitchers in too long or he can't get runs.": A simple rumination regarding obscure baseball strategy, or a bold prediction concerning the cataclysmic ruin of the so-called "rationality" of western society when confronted by the mysteries and intrigues of the orient?