SB Nation User Blog: The Boy

Beyond the Box Score: Turnovers

The Boy — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:15:02 -0000

In most of my previous BTBS posts, I've acknowledged that the whole thought behind my EqPts measure (and therefore the PPP and S&P measures as well) is only one part of scoring points. It's the most important part, but there are other factors involved--namely Turnovers and Special Teams (and luck, but we're not measuring that).

The main questions are a) how much of an impact do TO's and Special Teams actually make, and b) how are we going to measure that? Well, it's time to look into that. Today, we'll look at turnovers.

In a previous BTBS glossary, I talked about measuring Turnover Costliness this way:

Each turnover is assigned two values: 1) the point value (see below) of the offense's field position at the time of the turnover, and 2) the point value of the resulting starting field position for the opposition.

Turnover Costliness = (0.75*the higher of the two values)+(0.25*the lower of the two).

I previously had a factor in here regarding closeness of the game, and I'm sure I will again, but for now this is what I'm working with.

Let's throw that idea out. What happens if we count both values (the value of the offense's field position at the time of the turnover and the value of the resulting starting field position for the opposition) fully, combining the two to gauge the 'points' involved in a given turnover. Where does that take us?

For one thing, it means we're looking at quite a few different numbers here. For every time your offense turns the ball over, you've got a "Points Lost" number (your own field position at the time of the t/o) and a "Points Given" number (opponent's resulting field position). For every time your defense benefits from a takeaway, you have a "Points Prevented" number (your opponents' field position at the time of the t/o) and a "points Taken" number (your resulting field position). Obviously Points Lost and Points Prevented are the same number (depending on whether you're on offense or defense), as are Points Given and Points Taken.

Let's quickly look at the best and worst from each category, then try to figure out what this all means.

(And through all of these numbers, realize this--I also count botched punts/field goals as turnovers, so my Turnover Margin figures will likely be different than the official NCAA stats.)

Points Lost - Best (who didn't turn the ball over in scoring opportunities)

1. Clemson (1.69/game)
2. Ball State (1.84)
3. Texas A&M (1.93)
4. East Carolina (1.99)
5. LSU (2.06)

Points Lost - Worst (who did)

120. Western Kentucky (8.52)
119. Troy (7.64)
118. Western Michigan (7.32)
117. Idaho (7.07)
116. Baylor (7.06)

Points Given - Best (whose t/o's didn't set their opponents up with easy points)

1. Boise State (2.34)
2. Iowa (2.38)
3. Kansas (2.52)
4. Clemson (2.72)
5. LSU (2.92)

Points Given - Worst (whose did)

120. Florida International (10.49)
119. Idaho (9.80)
118. Western Kentucky (9.48)
117. NC State (8.66)
116. Baylor (8.38)

Points Prevented - Best (whose defenses' Bend-but-Don't-Break styles included forcing timely turnovers)

1. Western Kentucky (11.32)
2. South Florida (7.96)
3. Cincinnati (6.83)
4. West Virginia (6.65)
5. Central Michigan (6.40)

Points Prevented - Worst (whose didn't)

120. Marshall (1.44)
119. Fresno State (1.97)
118. Georgia Tech (2.14)
117. NC State (2.37)
116. Nebraska (2.38)

Points Taken - Best (who set their offenses up with easy scores via turnovers)

1. Western Kentucky (12.03)
2. Oregon State (10.11)
3. UCLA (8.85)
4. South Florida (8.84)
5. Wake Forest (8.37)

Points Taken - Worst (who didn't)

120. Marshall (1.49)
119. Fresno State (2.31)
118. Tulane (2.52)
117. Northwestern (2.62)
116. Nebraska (2.95)

Thoughts...

I'll say this for Western Kentucky: their games must have been super-exciting. There were huge, timely turnovers on both sides of the ball, at all parts of the field.
On average, the Points Taken/Given per-game numbers (5.50) were higher than the Points Lost/Prevented numbers (4.43), which suggests that more turnovers took place in the offense's territory.
It quickly becames clear that the teams on the 'best' lists were much more likely to be successful than the teams on the 'worst' lists.
Where does Missouri fall, you ask? They were #26 in Turnover Points Margin and #19 in Turnover Margin. They benefited from turnovers overall, but not so much that they can likely expect a host of bad luck in 2008.

So we can break up a simple "Turnover Margin" figure into four parts--is that really useful? Think about it this way: thanks in part to Phil Steele's "Turnovers = Turnaround" concept, gauging teams' potential turnarounds from one season to another relies in large part on their past season's Turnover Margin. That's great--turnovers are partially arbitrary (the nature of playing a game with an oblong ball that bounces unpredictably) and there's data to back up the usefulness of that concept. But right now, the following two turnovers count for exactly the same:

Turnover #1: Illinois is about to score against Missouri in the 2007 season opener. Backup QB Eddie McGee carries the ball inside the 1 before he's stripped and fumbles...the ball bounces into the arms of Pig Brown, who carries it 100 yards for a TD.
Turnover #2: Team A fumbles at their 45 yard line, and Team B recovers. Team B will immediately go 3-and-out and punt the ball back to Team A.

Using my numbers, Turnover #1 was worth 12.62 points (Illinois having the ball at the Mizzou 1 was worth 5.62 points, while Mizzou returning the fumble for a TD was worth, obviously, 7.00). Turnover #2 was worth 4.26 points (1.92 points lost/prevented + 2.34 points given/taken). Is that not a much more accurate read of which turnover truly impacted the result of the game and which did not? So looking at these point readings can give us a much more accurate feel for teams' "Turnovers = Turnaround" potential in 2008.

So let's look at the teams with the best and worst Turnover Points Margins.

Best Turnover Points Margins

1. Kansas (+8.38 points per game) (tied for #1 in regular turnover margin)
2. Middle Tennessee (+7.48) (#3)
3. East Carolina (+7.43) (tied for #1)
4. LSU (+6.96) (#4)
5. West Virginia (+6.42) (#8)
6. Oklahoma (+6.36) (#19)
7. Ball State (+6.07) (#6)
8. UConn (+5.53) (#5)
9. Western Kentucky (+5.35) (#12)
10. Virginia Tech (+5.32) (#10)

Not a lot of variation from the typical Turnover Margin numbers there, though my numbers do show that Oklahoma benefitted a lot more from their takeaways than they were hurt by their turnovers. What about the teams with the worst margins?

Worst Turnover Points Margins

120. NC State (-8.87 points per game) (tied for #116)
119. Florida International (-8.67) (#119)
118. Idaho (-8.43) (#113)
117. Baylor (-8.16) (tied for #116)
116. Nebraska (-6.58) (tied for #116)

Okay, so list at the bottom isn't all that different from the 'real' Turnover Margin list. So let's look at the team whose Turnover Margin and Turnover Points Margin were vastly different (in the rankings)...see what that tells us.

Hawaii: #40 Turnover Points Margin, #85 Turnover Margin (difference: 45)
Akron: #101 Turnover Points Margin, #62 Turnover Margin (difference: 39)
Mississippi State: #89 Turnover Points Margin, #62 Turnover Margin (difference: 27)
Louisville: #74 Turnover Points Margin, #48 Turnover Margin (difference: 26)
Houston: #80 Turnover Points Margin, #105 Turnover Margin (difference: 25)
UL-Monroe: #95 Turnover Points Margin, #70 Turnover Margin (difference: 25)

Other than showing that Hawaii really was pretty lucky to go undefeated (their turnovers were less impactful than their takeaways), this doesn't tell us a lot. In all, though, the average difference between a team's Turnover Points Margin ranking and its Turnover Margin ranking was 7.68, which isn't a tremendously hefty difference, but it does tell us some things about some teams, like Hawaii (likely due a turnaround in luck), Kansas (almost certainly due a turnaround in lucky), et cetera.

(Is 'impactful' a word? I don't think it is.)

And beyond all that, we've covered one of the two remaining concepts that impact the scoreboard. We can now assign an actual point value to different turnovers of different types, which I find pretty damn cool.

Next up: Special Teams.

Beyond the Box Score: Turnovers

The Boy — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:40:55 -0000

The main questions are a) how much of an impact do TO's and Special Teams actually make, and b) how are we going to measure that? Well, it's time to look into that. Today, we'll look at turnovers.

In a previous BTBS glossary, I talked about measuring Turnover Costliness this way:

Each turnover is assigned two values: 1) the point value (see below) of the offense's field position at the time of the turnover, and 2) the point value of the resulting starting field position for the opposition.

Turnover Costliness = (0.75*the higher of the two values)+(0.25*the lower of the two).

I previously had a factor in here regarding closeness of the game, and I'm sure I will again, but for now this is what I'm working with.

Let's quickly look at the best and worst from each category, then try to figure out what this all means.

(And through all of these numbers, realize this--I also count botched punts/field goals as turnovers, so my Turnover Margin figures will likely be different than the official NCAA stats.)

Points Lost - Best (who didn't turn the ball over in scoring opportunities)

1. Clemson (1.69/game)
2. Ball State (1.84)
3. Texas A&M (1.93)
4. East Carolina (1.99)
5. LSU (2.06)

Points Lost - Worst (who did)

120. Western Kentucky (8.52)
119. Troy (7.64)
118. Western Michigan (7.32)
117. Idaho (7.07)
116. Baylor (7.06)

Points Given - Best (whose t/o's didn't set their opponents up with easy points)

1. Boise State (2.34)
2. Iowa (2.38)
3. Kansas (2.52)
4. Clemson (2.72)
5. LSU (2.92)

Points Given - Worst (whose did)

120. Florida International (10.49)
119. Idaho (9.80)
118. Western Kentucky (9.48)
117. NC State (8.66)
116. Baylor (8.38)

Points Prevented - Best (whose defenses' Bend-but-Don't-Break styles included forcing timely turnovers)

1. Western Kentucky (11.32)
2. South Florida (7.96)
3. Cincinnati (6.83)
4. West Virginia (6.65)
5. Central Michigan (6.40)

Points Prevented - Worst (whose didn't)

120. Marshall (1.44)
119. Fresno State (1.97)
118. Georgia Tech (2.14)
117. NC State (2.37)
116. Nebraska (2.38)

Points Taken - Best (who set their offenses up with easy scores via turnovers)

1. Western Kentucky (12.03)
2. Oregon State (10.11)
3. UCLA (8.85)
4. South Florida (8.84)
5. Wake Forest (8.37)

Points Taken - Worst (who didn't)

120. Marshall (1.49)
119. Fresno State (2.31)
118. Tulane (2.52)
117. Northwestern (2.62)
116. Nebraska (2.95)

Thoughts...

I'll say this for Western Kentucky: their games must have been super-exciting. There were huge, timely turnovers on both sides of the ball, at all parts of the field.
On average, the Points Taken/Given per-game numbers (5.50) were higher than the Points Lost/Prevented numbers (4.43), which suggests that more turnovers took place in the offense's territory.
It quickly becames clear that the teams on the 'best' lists were much more likely to be successful than the teams on the 'worst' lists.
Where does Missouri fall, you ask? They were #26 in Turnover Points Margin and #19 in Turnover Margin. They benefited from turnovers overall, but not so much that they can likely expect a host of bad luck in 2008.

Turnover #1: Illinois is about to score against Missouri in the 2007 season opener. Backup QB Eddie McGee carries the ball inside the 1 before he's stripped and fumbles...the ball bounces into the arms of Pig Brown, who carries it 100 yards for a TD.
Turnover #2: Team A fumbles at their 45 yard line, and Team B recovers. Team B will immediately go 3-and-out and punt the ball back to Team A.

So let's look at the teams with the best and worst Turnover Points Margins.

Best Turnover Points Margins

Worst Turnover Points Margins

120. NC State (-8.87 points per game) (tied for #116)
119. Florida International (-8.67) (#119)
118. Idaho (-8.43) (#113)
117. Baylor (-8.16) (tied for #116)
116. Nebraska (-6.58) (tied for #116)

(Is 'impactful' a word? I don't think it is.)

Next up: Special Teams.

Matt at SS previews Illinois...

The Boy — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 19:23:26 -0000

I realize Illinois Week was a while back, but I thought I'd pass this along nonetheless. Statistically Speaking is one of my favorite stat-centric blogs, and Matt's statistical spidey-sense is not altogether impressed with Illinois' chances in 2008.

The major revelation for fans who couldn’t be less concerned with a team that had won 8 games over the previous 4 seasons was the play of running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall rushed for nearly 1700 yards and averaged 6.42 yards per rush. Of course, in limited action, Mendenhall averaged over 8 yards per rush in 2006 (640 yards), so maybe Zook should have gotten his stud into more games as an underclassmen. Unfortunately, Mendenhall will never carry the ball again for the Illini as he will now ply his trade in the NFL. He leaves behind 7 starters, including enigmatic quarterback Juice Williams. Williams is still much more dangerous as a runner, but he did improve his completion percentage from a piss-poor 39.5% in 2006 to a solid 57.3% in 2007. Still, his passer rating of 119.22 ranked only 81st in the nation. As long as Williams is the quarterback, the Illini will have trouble throwing the football. And without their home run hitter, Mendenhall, the offense as a whole will decline somewhat in 2008.

Mizzou Links, 7-3-08

The Boy — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:32:47 -0000

MAILBAG!!!

Actually, this mailbag is interesting in that it's a testament for just how much Mizzou fans find themselves needing to worry about...well, something, anything. With the 2008 team carrying with it the fewest built-in uncertainties of any Mizzou football squad ever, half the questions in the bag are...about just how much of a struggle 2009 could be.

After his Bandwagoner's Guide to Mizzou Gear post that I linked to yesterday, Mizzourah's Big Head describes to you exactly why you should be jumping on the bandwagon if you haven't already. This part in particular is funny:

On a 4th down, Scott Frost tosses a lame duck rope (the only one I've ever seen) to Shevin Wiggins, who boots the ball to Matt Davidson. Touchdown Cornies. Remote meets TV in the Big Head house. Years later, now in Omaha, I got to Frost's bar wearing a Mizzou jersey. Frost comes up, sits down, and buys me a beer. Sucks because the bar kicked ass, and Frost was a nice guy...not the deuschbag I was hoping for so I could trash his bar. Matt Davidson (sic), on the other hand, haunts me like three-week-old Chinese food. He is the color commentator on any radio/TV sports programming all over this damn state. I hate you.

A couple recruiting articles for you: Midwest City (OK) DB Daytawion Lowe has named a Top 5, and Mizzou's on it--he's supposedly been favoring Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in particular, but hey...being in the Top 5's better than not being in it. Midwest City's two high schools (Midwest City HS and Carl Albert HS) have produced many a Mizzou starter, including Julian Jones, Lorenzo Williams, and (assuming he starts at some point) Dain Wise, which I find pretty cool, as MCHS happens to be my parents' alma mater. So they've got THAT going for them...which is nice...

Other recruiting news: while recruiting stud WR Jheranie Boyd, Mizzou stumbled across another potential stud from Gastonia (NC)--5'11 safety Willie Kennedy (that just SOUNDS like the name of a great safety, doesn't it?). And hey...offering him sure can't hurt our chances with Boyd.

Speaking of Boyd, it appears that geography is our biggest opponent with him right now--he's visiting all sorts of schools up and down the east coast, but he hasn't been able to figure out how to get here despite previously expressing major interest in doing so. Guess we just have to hope to make his official visits list in the fall. Geography will not, however, prevent PA WR Jaleel Clark from visiting soon.

And speaking of mailbags, SI's Stewart Mandel discusses the teams he thinks will make the biggest losers-to-winners turnarounds this year. In order, it's SMU, Pitt, North Carolina, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame. I'm with him on SMU and probably Pitt...still not quite sold on UNC...I think Ole Miss will be much improved, but it might not matter...and I just don't know about ND. They'll probably improve simply because they were so bad last year, but I'm not sure if I see them going better than 6-6 (cue "that will still get them in the Fiesta Bowl" joke). I realize they were young, but they were so freaking bad last year...

Finally, we'll find out Sunday if Mizzou will have a presence in the MLB All-Star Game--that's the day of the MLB All-Star Selection Show. Cross your fingers for Ian Kinsler. And hey...Harold Reynolds has a job...that's all I care about.

Rock M Roundtable!

The Boy — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:18:06 -0000

1 - As The Beatles and Patrick Dempsey have taught us, money can't buy you love. But can it buy you a great football program? Does T. Boone Pickens' wallet give Oklahoma State a chance to become an actual, honest-to-god national power, or are they forever destined to be one step (at least) below OU and Texas?

2 - Coming between Mizzou trips to Lincoln and Austin, the MU-OSU game screams "TRAP GAME!!!" Will MU stay focused? Give me a prediction.

3 - Here's OSU's schedule. Give me a record prediction.

8/30: vs Washington State (in Seattle)
9/6: Houston
9/13: SMS
9/27: Troy
10/4: Texas A&M
10/11: at Missouri
10/18: Baylor
10/25: at Texas
11/1: Iowa State
11/8: at Texas Tech
11/15: at Colorado
11/29: Oklahoma

4 - How many wins does Mike Gundy need to keep his job for 2009?

5 - Ever been to Stillwater?

Doug: 1 - I think the money can help... but having Mike "Screamin'" Gundy at the helm of your football program really doesn't do you any favors. Just given the reality of the state of Oklahoma, I think OSU will forever play second fiddle to OU, let alone Texas. This isn't KU versus K-State in football, KSU had a nice, little run, but nothing anywhere near approaching the tradition and power of Oklahoma football versus OSU.

2 - Somone will... oh, you get the idea. If this were on the road, I would say total trap game, but since it is in Columbia, MU should come away with the victory.

3 - Eh, I think I see 6 losses in that schedule so 6 and 6 it is.

4 - The Shouter needs at least 7, but preferably 7 that come before a bowl game, I think 7 wins including the Fargo Bowl isn't going to cut it. Pickens couldn't spend his money on a basketball coach, you can be damn sure he wants to spend it on a football coach.

5 - Not as of yet. Though, I will say, Eskimo Joe's intrigues me.

rptgwb: 1. A program is good facilities and one good recruiting class away from turning things around, taking the next step, etc. You never know who will come up through the recruiting ranks dying to be a part of your program, fall in love with your facilities/town, have family connections, or something along those lines. Half the battle of competing with OU and Texas is money, which OSU and A&M have. The other half is establishing a tradition that can at least compete with OU and Texas. A&M had that at one point, and OSU is still trying to establish that. But you never know what one class or one year can do for a program, especially with those kind of resources.

2. I want to call it a trap game, but I think Mizzou matches up SO perfectly against OSU that I can't imagine a huge scare. Like you noted in BTBS, if you can get OSU out of the game early, they start to panic and fall apart. I like Mizzou to stay focused and put it away pretty early in what could be a shootout if they don't. I like Mizzou, 45-27, after some garbage time points by both schools.

3. 7-5 (3-5 Big 12). I'm not 100 percent sure they win over WSU, but for now I'll give 'em all four non-conference games. I think they beat A&M solely on the purpose that the game is in Stillwater and is Sherman's first conference game. I'll give them their other wins at home vs. Baylor and Iowa State.

4. Judging from everything I've read, I think he needs to put asses in the seats more than he needs to do a whole lot of winning. I think he can have another average year, but as long as he feeds the cash cow by filling up Pickens Stadium, he should be alright. I think five wins is acceptable for him, six to be positively safe.

5. I've driven by the exit for Stillwater while headed southbound for Dallas from Mizzou - does that count? I haven't been out to Stillwater, but it's on the list. I know several people who attend OSU or have attended OSU so I'm considering making the trip in 2009.

The Boy: 1 - My initial thought was that OSU needs that one 'transcendent' type of player or season to break through...a lightning-in-a-bottle type of situation that shows that OSU can be major players. That would at least bump up the expectations a bit. The tradition gap between OU and OSU is obviously pretty insurmountable, but if they can continue to establish a presence in OSU and actually make a nice run one of these seasons, then they can at least make it to the Texas Tech level. Right now they're a step behind, even though they've had good head-to-head success against Tech recently...and if OSU DOES manage to establish themselves at that level...good god, the Big 12 South would then become even more competitive than the SEC East.

2 - If we beat NU, then there will be a decent amount of paranoia (coming from me) about this game. As I mentioned yesterday, OSU's not good enough to win the South, but they're good enough to jump up and bite any team on the schedule. They're athletic and streaky. That said...no. They're mistake-prone, and we've got too much big-play ability on offense. Mizzou 41, Oklahoma State 21.

3 - I can certainly see a 5-0 start there (of course, I guess I can also see 2-3). Unfortunately, I can also see a 2-5 finish. We'll say 7-5.

4 - Initially, I thought Mike Gundy had a lot of rope because he's...well, Mike Gundy. He is OSU. However, the unceremonious dumping of Sean Sutton gave me second thoughts. Granted, the Sutton name has had some of the shine removed recently, and Gundy's still a step higher in the Pantheon than Sean...but I'd say the dude at least needs to make another bowl game this year. And at any moment, T. Boone could say "I'm sick of this--go buy me a winner." Especially since they have to raise attendance by about 20K now.

5 - There are obviously more places in Stillwater than Joe's...but Joe's is awesome. It's just cool to have bars to hit that close to the stadium...and you can't mess with the Joe's brand. In all, Stillwater's one of my favorite college towns, simply because that's pretty much all it is--a college town. Good times to be had.

ZouDave: 1 - Nope. This is kinda like baseball in my opinion, where lack of money will almost guarantee lack of success but presence of money is in no way a guarantee of success. OSU will need to combine their money and facilities with proper coaching hires or nothing else will matter. And they're going to have to get a coach on the upswing because the big name coaches that go for high-profile SEC jobs or teams already able to compete for National Titles are going to get money wherever they go. Pickens was not going to be able to lure Bill Self away from kansas, the same will hold true with a Pete Carroll/Urban Meyer.

2 - I don't believe in trap games. You're either going to win or you're not. Mizzou will be extremely focused this year, especially at home. History shows us that Mizzou vs OSU games are decided by a TD or less, as all but one in Big 12 play have gone that way, and three have gone to OT. This game will not be like that. OSU's defense is not up to the challenge, and OSU's offense will lose their running game dimension by the 2nd half because they can't keep up with our passing attack. Missouri 38, OSU 24.

3 - There's a minimum of 5 losses on that schedule. The difference, as with Nebraska, is the Colorado game. I can't wait until Colorado week where I say I see 3 wins, 3 losses and 6 swing games. Anyway, at Colorado will decide if OSU is 6-6 or 7-5.

4 - I agree with Doug. 7 and a bowl game. That should be enough for a team that has to face OU, UT, Tech and Missouri in one season and three of those are on the road. Very few teams in the country would come out better than 1-3 in that section of games so the fact that OSU is going to go 0-4 shouldn't really be held against them.

5 - Unless it's on I-35 in Oklahoma, I haven't been there. I haven't strayed more than an exit ramp away from I-35 in Oklahoma. It's not far from my in-laws' home in Augusta, ks, though so it's entirely possible I make the trip in 2009.

The Beef: I think the money/patience will run out before Okie State gets there. I think you are talking about a need for a sustained…I don’t know…decade before they can get to that level. The stadium is there, now will people come? I believe Okie State average just south of 40K per game last season and now will seat 60K…are there enough Okie State fans to go around? (Much like the argument about how/when/if Mizzou should ever add on to Faurot). So, I think you can improve a football program, but I don’t think the money can take it all the way there when I believe you are going to have to potentially replace a coach after this season.

2 - I don’t see it as too much of a trap game because it will be at home and I kind of enjoy how we have been playing at home of late. I also think the leadership of this team will very much have them looking one game at a time because you can’t win the national championship in October, but you can lose it. And while we will always publically say our goal is the north, then the Big XII, then the national titles, I think that is in the back of head’s and will drive a nice level of focus from the team. As for a prediction, having not yet read anything about Okie State, I will say we win the game 34-17.

3 - Wow…I have them losing the first game, winning the next 3…then losing 2…win, loss, win, and losing out…that would put them at 5-7. aTm could be a swing game, but that would only be 6-6 at best.

4 - More than I just predicted

5 - I have been to Stillwater and have seen us win there….not that I can remember what year that was…2001?

rptgwb: Wasn't 2001 in Stillwater Pinkel's first Big 12 win? Was it the 3OT game?

The Beef: That sounds about right...The Boy's friend literally lived in an apartment complex in the parking lot of the stadium...quick walk...

The Boy: Seriously, that is the most perfect placement EVER for an apartment complex. Kinda kills the tailgating, really, as...well...you couldn't park any closer than he lives.

And yes...it was either 2OT or 3OT. It was enjoyable bad football, really. We saw wins in Stillwater AND Lawrence that year. And I retired from going to Lawrence directly thereafter. Never again. That certainly paid off by my missing the 2003 and 2005 debacles, that's for sure.

ZouDave: May have been a short walk, but nothing you do is quick.

The Boy: Bitter.

ZouDave: just filling in until our resident old man chimes in...

Michael Atchison: Get off my lawn, you lousy kids!

The Beef:

Doug: Way to sum up my life in a single Calvin and Hobbes panel.

Mizzou Links, 7-2-08

The Boy — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:08:32 -0000

You know if I'm starting with basketball links, they're probably some good links. Want some hope for the 2008-09 basketball season? Read Steve Walentik's DJ All-Star Game recap. I'm not ready to predict a spot in the 2009 NCAA Tournament yet, but I'm ready to actually like a Mizzou basketball team again, and that's certainly something. That said, however, if we do make the NCAAs, hopefully they don't send us out west...else I think Miguel Paul is going to be pretty worthless. I mean...if a one-hour time change messes him up...

Coming from Florida, what's been the biggest change coming to the Midwest?

"Adjusting to the time change has been tough. I wake up in the middle of the night, thinking it's the morning quite a bit still. They weather has been fairly similar this summer, but it rains so much more here. It can be nice out one minute and then pouring the next."

We're talking about Florida Florida, right? Florida's not a province in, like, Spain, right? I'll say this, though: quirky players are always more interesting than bland ones. Bring on the quirks.

While we're talking about basketball, Scout.com posted a revised (and free) Top 100 for the Class of 2009. MU targets are pretty highly-regarded here--MIchael Snaer is #22, Christian Watford #50, Mike Dixon #61, Reggie Buckner #91. Former Mizzou target (and current Illinois commit) Tyler Griffey checks in at #58.

Watch lists galore! Remember when it was exciting to see one Mizzou player make some random watch list even though we knew there was no chance he was going to actually do anything on a national level? Well, let's just say that Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, and William Moore have already established themselves on a national level, and being named to the Maxwell and Bednarik Award Watch Lists is a side-effect.

So I'm sure this will be worth like another 16 points in EDSBS's Fulmer Cup race (12 points more than, like, rape).

Jumping on the Mizzou bandwagon? Now you know what happenin' gear to buy thanks to Mizzourah's Bandwagoner's Guide to Mizzou Gear post!

Since there's been a pretty lengthy student ticket discussion here in recent weeks, I thought I'd post this Missourian article about the new Student Season Ticket Combo. Not sure what's 'new' about this...could have sworn attending Olympic sports was free when I was a student too...but hey, I'm just the messenger...

Our softball team's so smart...our softball team's so smart...S-M-R-T...

Finally, this has nothing to do with Mizzou, and I'm pretty sure I'm missing about 46 inside jokes here, but you just have to love the level of Youtube trash talk involved in the video at the bottom of this post.

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

The Boy — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:06:18 -0000

2007 was a year of emergence and disappearance in Stillwater. The offense was supposed to dominate with Bobby Reid throwing to Adarius Bowman and handing off to Dontrell Savage, while a relatively young defense was supposed to struggle a bit. A few injuries, collapses and tirades later, Zac Robinson was throwing to Dez Bryant and handing to Kendall Hunter. The good news was that the emerging offensive threats were both good and younger than their predecessors. The bad news was...the defense still stunk.

It's BTBS Day once again...time to figure out how good the offense really was, how bad the defense really was, and what's possibly changed for 2008.

Quick Stats Overview

(I mentioned during my '+' Concept post a couple weeks ago that a lot of the defensive averages were over 100...well, I've adjusted all those. The national average on every one of these stats is now exactly 100.0. Just so you know.)

Total Offense

OffEqPts+ (all plays): 150.77
OffS&P+ (all plays): 132.30
OffS&P+ (close games only): 141.12

Rushing Offense

OffRunEqPts+ (all): 147.82
OffRunS&P+ (all): 136.00
OffRunS&P+ (close):140.64

Passing Offense

OffPassEqPts+ (all): 139.88
OffPassS&P+ (all): 133.23
OffPassS&P+ (close):149.58

Total Defense

DefEqPts+ (all): 89.74
DefS&P+ (all): 90.88
DefS&P+ (close): 100.22

Rushing Defense

DefEqRunPts+ (all): 93.02
DefRunS&P+ (all): 100.28
DefRunS&P+ (close): 107.39

Passing Defense

DefEqPassPts+ (all): 65.50
DefPassS&P+ (all): 72.71
DefPassS&P+ (close): 75.96

Game-By-Game EqPts Scores

9/1: Georgia 30.9, Oklahoma State 16.4
9/8: Oklahoma State 33.5, Florida Atlantic 1.3
9/14: Troy 37.3, Oklahoma State 20.8
9/22: Oklahoma State 55.2, Texas Tech 46.2
9/29: Oklahoma State 37.1, Sam Houston State 9.3
10/13: Oklahoma State 47.3, Nebraska 15.6
10/20: Kansas State 36.4, Oklahoma State 32.1
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2
11/10: Kansas 37.6, Oklahoma State 28.2
11/16: Oklahoma State 45.2, Baylor 11.7
11/23: Oklahoma 48.3, Oklahoma State 13.8
12/31: Oklahoma State 42.8, Indiana 27.8

Offense

Predicting when OSU was going to explode and when they were going to implode was tough to do last year. Their EqPts+ performances ranged from 78.8 to 241.9. Two of their worst EqPts+ performances of the season were against Georgia (83.4) and Oklahoma (81.0), which is somewhat predictable--OSU's biggest strength is its pure speed, and teams who could match that speed were able to dominate. However, their very worst was against Texas A&M (78.8)...who was not known for their speed. Meanwhile, their best performances were unpredictable as well. They lit up Texas Tech so badly (241.9) that Mike Leach prompted his DC's resignation after the game. They also put up a decent performance against a good Kansas defense (184.7...albeit a lot of their good plays came while playing from behind). They also kept up with a reasonably fast Texas defense (178.0) and roughed up Indiana (170.9) real nice. They ended up swinging an okay 109.4 against Troy, though the game was out of reach so fast that most of the stats were meaningless. In all, their averages were obviously quite good, but the up and down nature of their performance held them back.

Situational Stats

Situationally, where was OSU most (and least) impressive?

Rushing: 54.9% / 0.41 PPP / 0.963 S&P
Passing: 42.6% / 0.47 PPP / 0.891 S&P

Rushing (Close): 55.1% / 0.38 PPP / 0.931 S&P
Passing (Close): 44.1% / 0.51 PPP / 0.947 S&P

1st Downs: 53.9% / 0.42 PPP / 0.956 S&P
2nd Downs: 45.5% / 0.39 PPP / 0.847 S&P
3rd Downs: 50.5% / 0.43 PPP / 0.938 S&P

Q1: 52.6% / 0.42 PPP / 0.949 S&P
Q2: 53.7% / 0.51 PPP / 1.050 S&P
Q3: 49.6% / 0.32 PPP / 0.819 S&P
Q4: 40.8% / 0.43 PPP / 0.834 S&P

Passing Downs: 33.3% / 0.32 PPP / 0.649 S&P
Non-Passing Downs: 56.6% / 0.47 PPP / 1.040 S&P

It seems that when the course of the game had not yet been dictated (1st downs, 1st half), OSU was a superb outstanding team. When the game had been defined, and when OSU had a better idea of what they needed from the offense, the offense was average to above-average. Keeping Zac Robinson out of uncomfortable situations seems key for OSU--that, and scoring a lot early.

Zac Robinson vs Bobby Reid

I'm not going to lie--while watching the OSU v. Troy game, I thought Mike Gundy was a flaming idiot for replacing Bobby Reid with Zac Robinson as starting QB. Robinson was okay, but Reid's potential was so much higher. Well...I was wrong.

OSU Offense with Reid at QB

Rushing: 51.3% / 0.15 PPP / 0.660 S&P
Passing: 40.0% / 0.16 PPP / 0.556 S&P
TOTAL: 45.6% / 0.15 PPP / 0.607 S&P

Just no explosiveness whatsoever.

OSU Offense with Robinson at QB

Rushing: 56.4% / 0.39 PPP / 0.954 S&P
Passing: 44.8% / 0.57 PPP / 1.014 S&P
TOTAL: 51.7% / 0.46 PPP / 0.978 S&P

OSU's offense was about 50% better with Robinson behind center. Now...part of this is a sample size thing--Reid only started two games, and one of them was against Georgia. So looking at OSU's '+' performances for each QB...

Reid as starter: 115.0 EqPts+, 115.2 S&P+
Robinson as starter: 145.6 EqPts+, 126.1 S&P+

Not 50% better, but better nonetheless.

Adarius Bowman vs Dez Bryant

Heading into 2007, I remained a bit astonished that Adarius Bowman hadn't gone pro after 2006. Of course, it turned out that his speed was a bit of an issue, not to mention some off-the-field issues, but he just looked like an NFL receiver. By the end of the year, Bowman was hurt and Bryant had become a potential all-conference go-to WR. How did they stack up?

Bowman: 80.3% / 1.17 PPP / 1.972 S&P
Bryant: 88.1% / 1.22 PPP / 2.101 S&P

Now...they used Bowman more in short routes at times, so that would explain the lower success rate. But Bryant was every bit as explosive. What about during close situations, when the game was somewhat on the line?

Bowman: 79.6% / 1.15 PPP / 1.941 S&P
Bryant: 88.9% / 1.34 PPP / 2.230 S&P

Take this for whatever it's worth, but it's a good sign for OSU in 2008.

Kendall Hunter vs Dontrell Savage

Savage was hobbled for parts of 2007, allowing freshman Kendall Hunter to get some playing time. With Keith Toston (1.082 S&P) coming off of ACL surgery, Hunter appears to be ready for a showdown for #1 with JUCO transfer Beau Johnson (though Toston still has a shot).

ALL CARRIES

Savage: 40.7% / 0.60 PPP / 1.011 S&P
Hunter: 50.0% / 0.66 PPP / 1.163 S&P

CLOSE GAMES ONLY

Savage: 47.8% / 0.72 PPP / 1.195 S&P
Hunter: 42.9% / 0.75 PPP / 1.181 S&P

It's pretty clear that whoever is in OSU's backfield is going to be pretty successful, and Hunter's got the tools to be just as good as Savage.

It should also be mentioned that the Offensive Line (3.56 line yards per carry) returns mostly intact. The 2008 OSU offense should be every bit as good as the 2007 version, unless departed Offensive Coordinator Larry Fedora really made that much of a difference.

Defense

The OSU defense had its moments--completely wiping out what turned out to be a decent Florida Atlantic offense (181.7 DefEqPts+), humiliating Nebraska (131.5 DefEqPts+) in every facet of the game (offense, defense, special teams, ankle-taping, post-game meal, etc.), thumping Baylor (114.4 DefEqPts+) worse than most teams--but for the most part they established the same level of consistent mediocrity that afflicted Nebraska in '07 (though they were better than NU). Looking at DefEqPts+, they landed between 81 and 99 in 9 of 13 games, with especially poor performances coming against Kansas State (81.3) and Oklahoma (81.1). As you'll see below, their woes came mostly against the pass. Their situational stats paint the same picture.

Situational Stats

Rushing: 45.0% / 0.34 PPP / 0.793 S&P
Passing: 46.9% / 0.41 PPP / 0.877 S&P

Rushing (close): 44.2% / 0.37 PPP / 0.814 S&P
Passing (close): 51.5% / 0.47 PPP / 0.989 S&P

1st Downs: 48.2% / 0.44 PPP / 0.919 S&P
2nd Downs: 50.0% / 0.46 PPP / 0.964 S&P
3rd Downs: 45.5% / 0.33 PPP / 0.782 S&P

Q1: 39.8% / 0.27 PPP / 0.672 S&P
Q2: 50.0% / 0.51 PPP / 1.013 S&P
Q3: 61.4% / 0.49 PPP / 1.107 S&P
Q4: 52.3% / 0.56 PPP / 1.079 S&P

Passing Downs: 37.9% / 0.32 PPP / 0.702 S&P
Non-Passing Downs: 52.1% / 0.47 PPP / 0.987 S&P

Two things stand out to me in these stats.

1) I haven't been doing this a tremendously long time by any means, but I don't think I've EVER seen such weird by-quarter stats. How is a team that good in the first 15 minutes of the game and that atrocious in the final 45? Good gameplanning and horrible in-game adjustments? Worst conditioning ever? That's all I can come up with.

2) A 37.9% success rate on passing downs is entirely too high. This appears to have been a defense with some significant amount of discipline problems.

Remember how I said yesterday that this a defense that returns most of its secondary and loses a good portion of its D-Line experience? I'd be a lot more confident in Oklahoma State if the opposite were the case. However...none of the guys they lost are altogether irreplaceable. Nathan Peterson and Marque Fountain (9 combined sacks) were good, but not amazing. Donovan Woods, Jeremy Nethon, Chris Collins, and Rodrick Johnson were serviceable, but not much more than that.

Summary

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Mizzou Links, 7-1-08

The Boy — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 10:33:33 -0000

We'll start with a really nice story from The Examiner about Chase Daniel's trip to Blue Springs to take part in a QB/WR camp.

Miller approached Daniel, who stuck out his hand and smiled when he saw the Grain Valley resident’s football jersey.

"I just want to thank you for coming back your senior year," Miller said. "I hope you know what that meant to all us fans." Daniel stopped in his tracks, and thanked Miller for the comment.

"I wanted him to know what it meant to the fans like me, the old guys who have followed Missouri all those years," said Miller, who has followed Missouri football since 1957. "I told him that he’s going to experience something that guys like (Kansas State basketball player) Michael Beasley (who left after his freshman year and was the No. 2 overall draft pick in the NBA) will never experience – that’s the college life and love of the fans. We were all afraid Chase would leave after last year, and when he came back, it was like we knew how much he cared for his school, his team and his fans." Daniel’s fans weren’t all old enough to get that senior discount at Bob Evans restaurants.

"I was a little bit in awe when I saw him," said Jared Lanpher, the junior who will start at quarterback this year for the Wildcats. "We all know how busy he is, and for him to come here and work with the camp is awesome. I didn’t get any one-on-one time with him – although I’d have loved that."

Good stuff.

Well, with all the "will he/won't he" speculation that will be taking place around Jeremy Maclin, I guess it's good to know that Sean Weatherspoon isn't gazing longingly out the door--he tells the Post-Dispatch that he's in no hurry to leave Columbia. Of course, if he's suddenly projected as a 1st-rounder, he's probably gone...

On Sunday, Dave Matter took a look at the Big 12's best assistant coaches--now he ranks the O- and D-Coordinators. Matt Eberflus and Dave Christensen come in at #5 and #2 on their respective lists.

Missed this--Mizzourah is attempting a donation drive to help Winfield, MO, which got crushed with floodwater last week after a levee broke last week.

Finally, a quick baseball update...in particular, a Former Tiger update--via simmonsfield.com, I see that Brock Bond has been promoted to the A+ level, and Andrew Johnston has bounced back from a tough 2007.

Losing Keon: The Numerical Impact

The Boy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 18:55:34 -0000

I wanted to use my stat nerd powers today for basketball purposes instead of football. I'm going to try to take a look at what impact the loss of Keon Lawrence will have on Mizzou in the 2008-09 season. Obviously, Keon's transfer certainly won't be a good thing, though it might go further in solidifying what already seems to be excellent chemistry among the incoming freshmen. But how much will it hurt Mike Anderson's squad?

Now, measuring basketball players with stats means we're leaving the 'defense' question off the table, aside from where we talk about blocks and steals, but as fans of Larry Hughes can attest, you can rack up the steals and still be a pretty poor defensive player. Same with blocked shots, really. Those defensive stats are a small part of being a good defender, especially in a system like Mike Anderson's. So with that in mind...

What could we have expected from Keon Lawrence in 2008-09?

Here are Keon's career stats at Mizzou:

Freshman (2006-07): 23.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 TOPG
Sophomore (2007-08): 29.0 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.1 TOPG

Now here are his per-minute stats--this is what we'll be using for the most part in this post:

Freshman (2006-07): 1.19 Pts Per Shot (PPS), 0.35 Shots Per Min (ShPM), 0.12 RPM, 0.08 APM, 0.05 TOPM
Sophomore (2007-08): 1.16 PPS, 0.33 ShPM, 0.12 RPM, 0.09 APM, 0.07 TOPM

Two things: 1) most of the time when I'm looking at basketball stats, I use a stat called Net Equivalent Points (NEP--one of those "all-encompassing" numbers that looks at points, efficiency, assists, rebounds, etc...more information here), and 2) thanks mostly to Ben Vollmayr-Lee, I have all the Mizzou player stats going back to the 1981-82 season

Looking at NEP/minute numbers, Keon Lawrence put up the best freshman numbers for a 'small guard' at Mizzou since 1981. His productivity/efficiency decreased as a sophomore as he took on more responsibility (he fell to #6 among sophs), but here are the Mizzou players who put up the most similar per-minute numbers as sophomores (I used basic standard deviations for each of the main stat categories to determine this one): Clarence Gilbert, Bill Roundtree, Kendrick Moore, Jon Sundvold, Derrick Johnson. Ironically, two of those players (Moore, Johnson) didn't stick around for their junior years, but if we averaged the junior year stats for the remaining players on that list, we come up with the following projection for Keon's junior season:

Junior (2008-09): 32.6 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.2 TOPG

Considering where Keon's numbers were as a sophomore despite a prolonged shooting slump, these numbers seem quite conceivable. The question is, how much of those numbers can his likely replacements duplicate?

What can we expect from his replacements?

Figuring Keon would have averaged in the neighborhood of 30 minutes per game in '08-'09 (maybe less depending on the productivity of the freshmen), I figure the following individuals will be sharing a vast majority of the minutes now on the table from Keon's departure: Miguel Paul, Marcus Denmon, JT Tiller, Kimmie English, Zaire Taylor. I'm not putting Matt Lawrence on the list, as I don't see him logging any more minutes than he has the last two years, and that was with Keon on the roster. So let's say these five players split the minutes evenly, 20% each. What does that do for us?

To answer this question, we have to make some per-minute projections for each of them.

Miguel Paul

I'm not going to complicate this too much when it comes to the freshmen. Paul is a rather unknown quantity, but as a whole, here is how people seem to be describing him: great penetrator, questionable shooter (some say he's great, others say it's his biggest weakness), solid distributor. We've had a few point guards fit that description in recent years, but honestly the person who immediately flashes to my mind is Wesley Stokes. I realize comparing a point guard to Wesley Stokes is something resembling slander for Mizzou fans, but Stokes really wasn't that bad. So for simplicity's sake, let's say Paul puts up Stokes' per-minute numbers, which are as follows:

Paul (2008-09): 1.39 PPS, 0.23 ShPM, 0.10 RPM, 0.10 APM, 0.10 TOPM

Marcus Denmon

I got a little more complicated for this one. Denmon looks like his role could end up being one of the primary backcourt shooters on next year's squad. Well, anything over 0.35 ShPM fits that 'primary shooter' role, so here is the list of small guards (i.e. under 6'3) who have averaged more than 0.35 ShPM as freshmen for Mizzou since 1981:

none

Okay...under 0.30 ShPM?

Keon Lawrence (0.35 in 23.5 MPG)
Jason Sutherland (0.31 in 6.7 MPG)

Bump the requirement down to 0.24 ShPM (which really isn't a lot), and you add Kendrick Moore (again!), Melvin Booker, and Clarence Gilbert to the list. So if we average ALL of those players' per-minute averages together, you get the following player:

Denmon (2008-09): 1.15 PPS, 0.28 ShPM, 0.11 RPM, 0.08 APM, 0.07 TOPM

JT Tiller

We'll make this one really easy. We'll take Tiller's sophomore numbers and apply the typical sophomore-to-junior improvement numbers.

Tiller (2008-09): 1.33 PPS, 0.35 ShPM, 0.13 RPM, 0.09 APM, 0.09 TOPM

Kimmie English

Here's what we know about English so far: outstanding athlete, potentially great defender, pretty shot that hasn't fallen a lot lately (according to reports from the scrimmages and last weekend's DJ All-Star Game). Who does that sound like? That sounds like the freshman version of Rickey Paulding. Will English end up as good? We can only hope. But Paulding was nothing but a raw athlete as a freshman, and it's not too much to ask for English to duplicate those numbers.

English (2008-09): 1.07 PPS, 0.38 ShPM, 0.14 RPM, 0.05 APM, 0.11 TOPM

Zaire Taylor

This one's easy too. I could take Taylor's sophomore numbers at Delaware and apply the same typical soph-to-junior improvement scale that I used for Tiller. However...Taylor's taking a large step up in competition level going from Delaware to Mizzou, and we should be rather happy to get his sophomore-at-Delaware numbers out of him. So let's use those.

Taylor (2008-09): 1.30 PPS, 0.28 ShPM, 0.17 RPM, 0.06 APM, 0.07 TOPM

Summary

As I suggested earlier, I'm just going to pretend that these five players are going to equally split the minutes that Keon left behind. That likely won't be the case, but there's absolutely no way to determine who would get more or less. So that's what I'm doing.

Keon's Replacement (2008-09): 12.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.8 TOPG

That's certainly not bad for a (combined) guy playing roughly 30 minutes per game. Keon's replacement is a less-prolific scorer and has worse A/TO numbers, but makes up for it a bit through rebounding. Going back to Net Equivalent Points, Keon is projected to average 0.45 NEP/min, while Keon's Replacement is projected at 0.37. There's a drop-off to be sure. Over the course of an entire game, Keon's loss looks to cost us somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 'equivalent' points per outing.

Defensively? Obviously this is a huge question mark, but I really don't see too much of a dropoff in that regard. Keon was a fine defender by all means, but he wasn't amazing. The combination of Paul (early reports say he's an average defender), Denmon (above average), English (good), Tiller (good but foul-prone), and Taylor (good) should easily be able to replicate his abilities in that regard.

So in the end, we stand to lose a 3-pointer a game on offense and little to nothing on defense. That doesn't seem like a lot, but...well, how many games have we lost by 6 points or less in the last two seasons? By my quick count, we're 4-14 in games with that margin under Mike Anderson. Losing 3 PPG is not really something we can afford at this stage, unless the incoming recruiting class breathes a LOT of new life into things. That's always possible, but you never want to count on fresh recruits as much as we will be come November.

Oklahoma State Links

The Boy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:03:57 -0000

That's right...it's OSU week on RMN! OSU was my default second-favorite team growing up...that's really neither here nor there, so let's just move on to the links.

First, the quick summary: OSU in 2008 will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator, and they'll have plenty to work with--QB Zac Robinson (who would be an all-conference caliber performer in any other conference), a stable of potential stud RBs, an "all-conference" (what a joke) tight end, Dez Bryant at WR, and a ton of returning experience at OL. Meanwhile, if there's reason for overly-optimistic post-spring chatter, it's the potential improvement (and depth) of the defense. The LB corps and secondary return mostly intact, and while the DL lost quite a bit of experience, there's a lot of potential with former big-time recruits and good athletes. In all, despite losing a big number of lettermen from the 2007 squad, they return athleticism and potential in each unit. Will that be enough to make OSU a contender in a South Division loaded with a Top 5 Oklahoma team, a hungry Texas team, and a flavor-of-the-month Texas Tech squad? Unlikely, but I guess you never know. At least they'll probably be better than ATM, right?

Rivals.com has listed three Cowboys on their position rankings: Zac Robinson is the #16 QB, Dez Bryant the #19 WR, and Brandon "All-Conference" Pettigrew the #4 TE.

How'd the Orange & White Game go? Let's find out! About 20,000 fans saw a strangely low-scoring 9-7 win for the Orange (what was the score of Mizzou's game? Something like 436-358?) Sign of an improved defense? Dez Bryant and RB Kendall Hunter both had decent games despite the lack of points, while guys like Seb Clements, Jamie Blatnick, and Justin Gent were defensive heroes.

The defense could be further assisted by the emergence of former star recruit Richetti Jones (sorry, The Richetti Jones), who may finally be fully recovered from a broken hip.

Despite the fact that his new offensive coordinator's name is Trooper (!!), Mike Gundy is considering calling the plays during games this fall. Either way, OSU's (and Mizzou's, for that matter) style could be helped by the new clock rule changes, according to a Daily Oklahoman blogger.

It wouldn't make sense to create an OSU Links post and not mention T. Boone Pickens at least once. So I'll go with this Barry Tramel column, talking about how the pretty, new, massively expanded stadium (paid for with Pickens' scrilla) now needs to be kinda sorta filled.

You don't build a 60,000-seat palace with a county fair attitude. You build 60,000 seats because you want them filled.

It's Gundy's job to fill them. He's got to get some help from the marketing department and the business office and even the hot-dog vendors. But in big-time college football, it falls upon the coach to fill the seats.

OSU averaged 39,857 fans in 2007, so there's not going to be any jump to 60,000 in 2008. But the ascension must start.

Gundy doesn't seem all that worked up about the mandate. "My job is to put a good team on the field," he said.

Gundy's done a so-so job of that the past two years but he's done a heck of a job giving fans their money's worth. Football at the Boonedock has been the best show in the state the last two years.

Victories of 41-29 over Nebraska, 49-45 over Texas Tech and 41-39 over Kansas State; losses of 34-33 in overtime to Texas A&M, 27-21 in Bedlam, 38-35 to Texas and 43-28 to Kansas. Poke fans don't always go home happy from Stillwater, but they always go home entertained.

Finally, let's visit YouTube for highlights of 'Pokes new...
...and old...
Oy.