SB Nation User Blog: The Cheat

12/4 Link Dump

The Cheat — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 20:13:27 -0000

I was just about to post my third FanShot while cleaning out my feed reader, which is more than enough to sustain a link dump... so, here it goes.

The Mets are "not ready" to deal Fernando Martinez.
[Mets GM Omar] Minaya always has refused to label any prospect "untouchable," but he kept Mike Pelfrey off the table last year at this time and he seems ready to do the same with Martinez. With the Mets connected to numerous reports involving White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye and closer Bobby Jenks, it was not surprising to see Baseball Prospectus suggest that Minaya was discussing a "blockbuster" deal that could bring both to Flushing for a package centered on Martinez. But a person familiar with the situation said yesterday there was "nothing there."
Tango pens his annual case for Tim Raines for the HOF.
Shawn Hoffman pinch hits at Baseball Analysts with a piece called Baseball's Bear Market? Why 'Caution' is the Keyword This Winter
Gonzo has lots of little nuggets from the as yet-to-be-posted-online conference call with Kenny Williams. Some scary thoughts: Lillibridge described as Ozuna with more upside, while Poreda "will probably gravitate toward the bullpen."

[Update by The Cheat, 12/04/08 3:06 PM CST]: The call is online. it's a half-hour long, so I haven't been able to sift through it yet.
The Brent Morel and Jordan Danks led Winston-Salem team will no longer be called the Warthogs. They're the Dash, reflecting the Sox new commitment to speed. Seriously, their nickname is the Dash now, but they were named after a hyphen. It has nothing to do with speed.
Keith Law adds a few MPH to Santos Rodriguez' fastball compared to what we had previously heard from Gonzo. In the Gonzo link above, KW stated that Santos would be converted to a starter this year.
MLBTR takes a stab at identifying some possible non-tenders, arbitration-eligible players still under team control who may not be offered contracts and thus become free-agents. Most recently, the Sox picked up Toby Hall after being non-tendered. Interesting and/or scary names include Daniel Cabrera and Willy Taveras. The non-teneder deadline is December 12th.

I'm sure I'll add more, but this is a start

Tim Raines’ case for the Hall of Fame -- The Hardball Times

The Cheat — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 20:04:11 -0000

Tim Raines’ case for the Hall of Fame -- The Hardball Times

While individually, Raines is unlike his peers, overall, it's hard to distinguish them. Any time we compare Raines to a reasonable group of Hall of Famers, we always end up with the same thing: Raines is just like them. If you have a group of players worthy of the Hall, and an individual player compares very favorably to that group, you have a Hall-worthy player by definition. That is what Tim Raines is: the definition of a Hall of Famer. Whether Raines is compared to the best of the best leadoff hitters or the best No. 3 hitters or the best players of his era, he stands among them. And they stand in the Hall of Fame.

Mets still not ready to deal Fernando Martinez

The Cheat — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:07:30 -0000

Mets still not ready to deal Fernando Martinez

[Mets GM Omar] Minaya always has refused to label any prospect "untouchable," but he kept Mike Pelfrey off the table last year at this time and he seems ready to do the same with Martinez. With the Mets connected to numerous reports involving White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye and closer Bobby Jenks, it was not surprising to see Baseball Prospectus suggest that Minaya was discussing a "blockbuster" deal that could bring both to Flushing for a package centered on Martinez. But a person familiar with the situation said yesterday there was "nothing there."

With Very Important Eyes watching, Sox start youth movement

The Cheat — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 02:43:25 -0000

With Very Important Eyes watching, Sox start youth movement

CBS's Scott Miller pens an article on the White Sox Youth Movement™, and peppers in some quotes from Ken Williams. Normally, I'd just pull the most interesting Williams' quote, but I can't tell which quotes are fresh and which are stale and used to frame the story Miller is trying to tell. Read, and decide for yourself.

White Sox Aren't Done Dealing: Baseball Prospectus (Subscription Req'd)

The Cheat — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:00:26 -0000

White Sox Aren't Done Dealing: Baseball Prospectus (Subscription Req'd)

Though the White Sox have a trade in place to ship right-hander Javier Vazquez to the Braves, they aren't done dealing, and there are whispers that they are working on a blockbuster that would send closer Bobby Jenks and right fielder Jermaine Dye to the Mets for a package that would include center-field prospect Fernando Martinez. ..

Reading The Vazquez Trade Tea Leaves

The Cheat — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:11:54 -0000

It now appears as if most outlets are in agreement on the return from the Javier Vazquez trade.

Braves get: Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Late Inning Headaches
White Sox get: Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, Brent Lillibridge, Santos Rodriguez, $23M lighter

It's late, and I got preoccupied planning for a downtime that didn't exsist, so I'll just point you to Jim's completely fictional blog for some specifics on the players the Sox are receiving. I'd like to spend some more time talking about the bigger picture.

What are the White Sox Doing?

The simple answer is dumping payroll, getting younger. But closer inspection--hell, it doesn't even take close inspection--reveals another force is at work, a winter cleaning of Ozzie Guillen's doghouse.

In two trades the Sox have purged themselves of three players in whom Guillen no longer had confidence. Nick Swisher played his way out of town with a pouting act and a .197 second-half batting average. Vazquez chartered his flight with a 13.22 ERA in his final 4 starts as a member of the White Sox, taking Boone Logan and his 38 baserunners in his final 10 IP along with him as a carry-on.

Unlike the Swisher trade, this deal netted the Sox some prospects with some real upside. Tyler Flowers is shooting up prospect lists after his 12 homer performance in the AFL, where KW is said to have "drooled over" him. He's a big body who won't stick behind the plate long term, but would be a huge get if he can provide adequately-below-average defense for a few years. Jon Gilmore is a young, toolsy third baseman with power potential who struggled in his brief foray into A-ball, but hit well in rookie ball. (Red flag: has just 19 walks in 522 minor league at-bats) Santos Rodriguez is unknown who struck out a bunch of rookie leaguers while pitching from the pen as a league-repeater.

While those 3 figure to spend all of the '09 season in the minor leagues, Brent Lillibridge should find himself competing for a spot on the Sox roster. Not that I have any idea how he fits, or even why he deserves such a right. To say I'm not a fan of Lillibridge's is an understatement. I didn't like what I saw from him in the '07 futures game (admittedly, the only time I've seen him), and he's done nothing at the plate to change my mind in the 18 months since then.

Moreover, I don't really understand where he fits in the Sox plans. They've added Wilson Betemit and Jayson Nix to their in-house candidates, Josh Fields and Chris Getz at 3B and 2B, respectively, and figure to officially add Dayan Viciedo soon. Though, I've already expressed my doubts about his ability to compete for a job this spring. I don't think Lillibridge is here to take Alexei's shortstop gig away from him. I suppose he might be competing for a utility role--he apparently has a good glove--with Betemit figured to keep third base warm for Viciedo. Lillibridge was once thought by some to be a candidate to replace the outgoing Andruw Jones in Atlanta's center field, but he couldn't find his way onto the '08 roster, and after posting a .294 AAA OBP and a consistent 3:1 K/BB ratio above A-ball, I'd say it's a safe bet that he shouldn't find his way onto the Sox '09 roster either.

If there's any single reason to be put off by this deal, aside from acquiring what looks like another future 1B/DH type, or failing to acquire a young starter in return, or Lillibridge in general, or that the Sox don't figure to have get any benefit out of the deal in '09, it's that John Schuerholz and his scouting staff tend to come out on top in these type of deals. (Note: I know he's no longer technically the GM, but it's still his staff and he's the F'n team president.) Last year he stole Jair Jurrgens from Detroit. And the year before that it was Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez. The last deal that's truly comparable to this one, however, is the Hudson trade. Dan Meyer never turned into anything and Juan Cruz, despite his strikeout rate and type-A status, has not delivered on his former promise. Reportedly the Sox were allowed to pick 4 from a list of 5 prospects. No doubt the Braves felt safe losing any of the players listed.

What does the rotation look like now?

As of this moment the Sox have 3 starters, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. The immortal Jeff Marquez, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda will fight for the remaining two spots, though one of Richard/Poreda will likely end up in the pen as a LOOGY with potential. Lance Broadway and Jack Egbert are next in line for a starting spot, which, along with Marquez and his terrible AAA K-rate, is probably why the Sox are looking for a young starter in return in the rumored Jermaine Dye trades. Jose Contreras may return sometime late in '09, but it's best to simply think of him as lost for the season and be pleasantly surprised if he exceeds expectations.

No really, what are the White Sox doing?

I can't say for sure. The winter meetings are still a week away, and the Sox have already cut their projected '09 payroll down to the $96M range. Perhaps the economy has hit them hard. Perhaps they are embarking on the rebuilding that should have started in May of '07. Perhaps they're clearing payroll to make a run at a mystery free agent, even though they'd swear otherwise. Perhaps they're clearing room to lock up their arbitration eligible (Jenks) or soon-to-be eligible players (Q!, Danks and Floyd) and buy out a couple years of free agency, a return to the cost-certainty-era Sox. There's only one thing I can say for certain, this will not be the White Sox last move of the off-season. I'm almost expecting Dye to be dealt at the Winter Meetings, netting a young starter in return, and picking up a free-agent outfielder on the cheap as the market craters late in January. Whatever happens figures to be exciting, surprising, and should give us plenty of discussion fodder for the rest of the off-season.

Vazquez Downtime To Be Covered Live Off-Site

The Cheat — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:58:47 -0000

Open this page in a separate window or tab, and Do Not Refresh (as SSS is set to go dark in the next half hour). The Cover It Live box should remain active and allow discussion in the downtime. Comments are closed, to be opened when we return from darkness.

[Note by The Cheat, 12/02/08 10:59 PM CST]: It appears as though I may have overreacted to my email, as the outage was only supposed to last for minutes during the timeframe listed. Oops. Comment reopened. I'll have a trade recap up before I hit the sack.

The Latest Vazquez Rumors

The Cheat — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 02:27:07 -0000

The Latest Vazquez Rumors

Still don't know all the players in the proposed Vazquez deal, but we need a new thread.

As of right now, the latest info has the Sox receiving a package of 4 prospects picked from a list of 5. Best guess at their names appears to be Brent Lillibridge (for sure) Tyler Flowers (almost positive), Jon Gilmore (until we hear different) and Santos Rodriguez (I think).

Unfortunately Timed Emergency Outage Planned

The Cheat — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:11:00 -0000

Unfortunately Timed Emergency Outage Planned

Start Date: Tuesday, December 2, 2008; 10:30PM (EST)
End Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2008; 12:30AM (EST)

Our tech team sends along note that our web provider will be undergoing some form of emergency maintenance tonight for the time listed above. Neither Kenny Williams nor Javier Vazquez were consulted.

Ruminations on Rumors (w/ Bonus Vazquez Rumor)

The Cheat — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 21:35:15 -0000

Scanning Google Reader -- Suck it, Bloglines! -- over the past 24 hours, I came across a couple of related entries from two completely different type of sites. I thought about posting them separately as FanShots, but I thought they combined to frame a more robust discussion about the baseball rumor landscape.

In the first, Will Carrol, of Pete Rose reinstated and Washington Grays fame, as well as Baseball Prospectus' Under The Knife, recently announced that he would not be participating in the rumor mongering during the upcoming winter meetings (Dec. 8-11th). Not that I really care; as he says, the market is saturated with plenty of hard-working journos (both Carrol and Aaron Gleeman cite Ken Rosenthal in particular). No, I'm linking to his resignation from the rumor game because of the numbers he cites about the rumors themselves.

Paul DePodesta wrote that 25% of rumors have any basis in fact. I spoke with Andrew Friedman earlier this year and he gave a slightly higher number. I’d say that the number is higher still, probably about 50%. There’s some nugget of truth, some overheard conversation or leak, some good source talking out of school in — just a guess — half. About 25% is chatter - secondary things that aren’t quite right, people talking about things that never quite get to the real talking stage. I can remember a team saying they liked a guy and then a couple weeks later, that guy was in a trade rumor involving the team. It didn’t happen, but someone filled in the gap with something plausible. Not right, but not entirely wrong.

About 10% beyond that is trial balloons. They aren’t facts, but agents and teams like to get stuff out there and it’s useful to some extent, assuming you can pick apart the layers of anonymity. I’d argue there’s real value here in that it helps create action. In Moneyball, Peter Gammons was shown to be a go-between, an information clearinghouse for what teams were trying to do and there’s unquestionably a value there.

It’s the other 15% that’s worrisome. It’s the whole cloth, puff of smoke lies that throw everything off and give the whole process a bad name. I’ll split that into half "good" and half "evil" — the good smoke is just talking points, people throwing ideas on the wall and covering them in a thin candy shell of credibility. The evil smoke is designed to do something, to create action or in most cases, just attention. These seldom hold up very long, but they’re out there and worse, there’s some big name people that do this far too often, likely under pressure of deadline or an editor telling them to produce something.

The second comes from Gawker, the New York and media centric mega-blog, which uses the recent news that David Gregory will (read: may) take over at Meet The Press as a backdrop for a discussion on rumors and journalism on the internet.

In classic journalism, rumors had to be double-sourced before, say, a newspaper would run with them. So you get a tip, then you have to find some other person who would know to agree with it. That person should not be the original tipster. Pretty simple.

But everything is new and different now! Online "news" outlets are not all as professional as we are around here. Rumors pop up everywhere online, all the time. But here's the key difference between now and the old days: if a rumor is reported online, people tend to treat it as a rumor until it's reported somewhere else. Then, two places have it up separately, and ta-da! It's the internet version of double-sourcing. It doesn't necessarily require any enterprise on the part of lazier blogs—just wait until two places report it, and it's gold! No actual sources necessary!

How do the two relate? Well, without truly knowing the ins-and-outs--I'm just a blogger, remember--I'd argue that there is no Two-Scource-Rule for a baseball rumor. If it's whispered and can pass the smell test, it'll probably be written about, or at least re-whispered on the radio. But I'd also argue that we, as semi-functional basement-dwellers, have formed something of our own Two-Source-Rule. Take the Jermaine Dye Rumors, for instance.

Dye has been mentioned in regards to numerous teams, but the rumor that seems to have taken hold involves the Reds. Why? Because it's been written about by different outlets--Some Cinci radio station (not WKRP), The Enquirer, ChiSox.com, and the Trib--though all seem to be using a similar source, pointing back at the first source and adding Jockety's non-denial. So now it's a super-duper, 4-star, rhodium-plated rumor, because it has multiple sources....

And, I'll end that discussion there--even though I had more to say--because the Best-In-The-Business has a Hot-Off-The-Stove rumor for us.

The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are in serious discussions with the White Sox about a trade for right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to major-league sources.

The White Sox would receive as many three players in return. Left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brent Lillibridge are among the names under discussion, sources said.

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 5:04 PM CST]: The opening line of Rosenthal's article now reads "The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are on the verge of acquiring right-hander Javier Vazquez from the White Sox, according to major-league sources." (emphasis added is mine)

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 6:05 PM CST]: Rosenthal now says it's done pending physicals. Announcement Wednesday or Thursday. Players departing: Vazquez and Boone Logan. Players arriving: Brent Lillibridge (short, fast, scrappy, middle infielder with a hole in his swing), a young starter thought to be Charlie Morton (mediocre, uninspiring back-of-the-rotation candidate) and possibly Tyler Flowers (Power and plate discipline catcher, who just destroyed the AFL, but needs work behind the plate).