Baseball's always full of uncertainty... roles change all the time, and the smart fantasy manager has to have a good sense of this to take advantage of trades and whatnot, especially in deep leagues.

So make a specific prediction (date) that certain events will happen... it'll be pretty awesome if you end up being right, eh?

How long until...

Continue reading this post »

Wieters or Santana?

McCarthy or Smyly?

Drabek or Hammel?

Hutchison or Alvarez?

Arrieta or Porcello?

Scherzer or Peavy?

Willingham or Teixeira?

Eldred or Kaaihue?

Cespedes or Joyce?

Scott or Choo?

Liriano or Lowe?

Thornton or Adams?

Pujols or A-Gon?

Of course, feel free to discuss and all that stuff... I think it's always interesting to compare players in April and look back and see how it turned out, whether on the whole the community is too impatient or too patient. My guess is too impatient, but maybe that varies based on certain factors. Well, we'll have no way of knowing how this will look now, only time will tell.

This year in particular, there looks to be many prospects or former prospects who are stuck in somewhat of a no-mans land... getting moved to the bullpen or the minors but still within close range of a rotation spot. Being in a deep AL-only league always looking to find sneaky value, I'm curious how playing time will shake out for these guys... someone could end up with a steal.

Zach Stewart - Rated a B by John entering the season, he started some games in 2011 with mixed results, with his top performance as a 1-hitter shutout. He clearly has upside as evidenced by his K potential, but he may get stuck as a sixth man-long reliever and may have trouble getting in unless an injury strikes.

Chris Tillman - Was fighting for a fifth rotation spot and doing rather well, now he pitches an inning out of the bullpen? Is that game over for his rotation chances? He wasn't great last year, but his peripherals were better than 2010. Not a prospect, you say? He's still only 23, believe it or not.

Felix Doubront - Struggled with injury and ineffectiveness in 2011, but he's still in the running for the fifth starter spot. But even if he wins it, it's unsure how he'll hold up, both from health and performance standpoints. He's only 24 though, and got a C+ rating by John last year.

Alex Cobb - Was pretty great in the minors and majors when needed last year, but got bumped after an injury, and with Moore joining the rotation and Davis as the likely sixth man, it's unclear whether he'll get a chance as a starter.

Tyson Ross - He was great in the majors in limited time, but struggled with injuries, personal issues, and ineffectiveness in the minors. Has good velocity but a underwhelming K rate. Still young though and has good upside if he can stay healthy and control the ball, but any grasp he'll have on a rotation spot is tenuous with Parker and Peacock waiting in the wings.

Aaron Crow - Came on strong at the start of the 2011 season, but control issues caught up to him a bit. Was looking to be a starter, which could have been a boon to his fantasy value, but looks like the Royals changed their minds. Still, it might not be a stretch to think he'll fill in... just look at the Royals current rotation.

Jake Arrieta - May have the fifth starter spot, but it's tenuous at best with many guys fighting to take it over (Wada, Tillman). Will need to cut down walks if he wants to be effective, but the K rate is good and was a B+ guy last year. But he's pretty old already, turning 26 soon, and he's on the Orioles.

Liam Hendriks - I wasn't going to put him on as I thought he'd start in the minors, but it looks like he could get a shot if Baker starts the season on the DL. He reminds me of Kevin Slowey (vintage Kevin Slowey) but he could get demoted as soon as Baker is back. He'll have to give a reason to knock out one of the other pitchers instead.

How would you rank these guys in terms of value for the upcoming season (non-holds league, so starters are significantly more valuable than relievers, the more innings the better, provided they're well-pitched.) How do you project their playing time situtation will shake out in 2012?

Poll

Which pitcher will have the most fantasy value in 2012?

11%

Zach Stewart

13 votes

6%

Chris Tillman

7 votes

6%

Felix Doubront

8 votes

26%

Aaron Crow

30 votes

18%

Tyson Ross

21 votes

6%

Alex Cobb

7 votes

12%

Jake Arrieta

14 votes

13%

Liam Hendriks

15 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

It looks like consensus is that Bard won't pan out as a starter after all. I'm not all that surprised, but I am surprised (and disappointed) that the Sox did not plan for this by acquiring better emergency starters over the offseason.

Still, I'm wondering if Aceves or Doubront will have any fantasy value. Doubront has more upside as he's only 24 and John Sickels said he could be a #4 or #5 for most teams, but Aceves has a pretty good track record of success, although mostly as a reliever. Are either of these guys fantasy relevant in very deep AL-only leagues?

Poll

Who will be better in 2012?

35%

Alfredo Aceves

5 votes

35%

Felix Doubront

5 votes

28%

They will both suck eggs

4 votes

14 votes | Poll has closed

A lot of press has been given to the Snider/Thames battle in Toronto, but I consider this the most interesting position-time battle of the spring. Right now, three candidates for the job are all well-regarded prospects and are doing well in their own ways. And there is Chone Figgins. But anyway, onto the interesting names.

Kyle Seager said he made a change in his chance to produce more power. So far it looks like it's working. He hit 3 doubles yesterday and already has 3 Home Runs. He already is a solid all-around hitter with good average and plate discipline in the minors, so he could benefit from adding power to his game. He also has some positional flexibility, having played some SS and 2B. However, he has a 9/0 K/BB ratio so far.

Alex Liddi - Controversial as a prospect for his high strikeout rate, he clearly has power and didn't fall flat on his face in his cup of coffee last year. He is raking so far this spring, showing great HR and extra base power, but hasn't shown a real improvement to indicate growth in plate discipline. His defense might not be good enough for him to stick, but is better than Catricala's. He'll need to have a strong year to avoid getting lost in the shuffle, but he should get a chance.

Vinnie Catricala - The only thing holding him back is his defense. He has a great bat and has shown it in ST, hitting for power and average, and has shown pretty good plate discipline as well. It's unclear how high his offensive upside is... he was drafted as an "organizational guy" but has just hit more and more every year, going gangbusters in 2011, despite lack of fantastic tools. If he could improve his defense to the passable level, he'd be an intriguing option. He still has the potential to be a plus DH, but he will have a harder time finding an opening.

Michael Saunders - Okay, so he's not a third baseman, but he's still a prospect in my eyes, and he directly impacts the outcome of this competition. If he wins the CF job and Figgins takes third instead of center (if anything at all), none of these 3B prospects will get their chance to shine initially. He says he has revamped his swing for more power and has looked good in ST, but color me skeptical... when it comes to hitters adding power, I tend to prefer players that can actually get the bat on the ball. Still, he's 25 and the upside remains high, so the book's not closed on him.

But let's imagine a perfect world where each of these players were given a starting job with a full season of At-Bats, unimpeded by injuries or managerial decisions. What kind of numbers would you expect them to put up? How do you think the situation is going to shake out in real life during the 2012 season?

Poll

Taking projected playing time into account, who will put up the best offensive numbers in the 2012 season?

24%

Kyle Seager

52 votes

53%

Alex Liddi

116 votes

15%

Vinnie Catricala

34 votes

6%

Michael Saunders (with Figgins at 3B)

13 votes

0%

Other (explain in comments)

1 votes

216 votes | Poll has closed

So I'm in a AL only salary ($50 cap) keeper league, and am one major league keeper short for my upcoming draft. Here is the list of players I could roster as my eighth keeper... the selection isn't great. I'd rather have someone start the year on the DL or in the minors (so I can replace them with a FA) than being a backup or playing terribly on my active roster. I am expecting to be competitive next year and want someone who will help now.

Andrew Miller at $0.50

Chris Parmelee at $0.50

Joe Benson at $0.75

Daisuke Matsuzaka at $0.50

Leonys Martin at $0.25

Brandon Allen at $0.25

Kevin Gregg at $0.75

Danny Duffy at $1.25

Trayvon Robinson at 1.25

I'm trying to figure out who I should take... I'm trying to keep this player cheap so I can spend elsewhere, so I'm shying away from Duffy/Robinson despite their potential. Miller is interesting but I'm not sure if I can trust him, and I like Allen and Parm but don't know their roster status.

My league's categories are AVG, HR, Runs+RBI, TB+BB, and SB on offense, and ERA, WHIP, Wins, Ks, and Saves for pitching. Anyway, how would you rank these guys for 2012, from most desirable for fantasy purposes at their respective salaries to least?

Poll

Out of these low-end options, who would you take (considering contract) for 2012?

0%

Andrew Miller at $0.50

0 votes

15%

Chris Parmelee at $0.50

2 votes

0%

Joe Benson at $0.75

0 votes

15%

Daisuke Matsuzka at $0.50

2 votes

23%

Leonys Martin at $0.25

3 votes

7%

Brandon Allen at $0.25

1 votes

0%

Kevin Gregg at $0.75

0 votes

38%

Danny Duffy at $1.25

5 votes

0%

Trayvon Robinson at $1.25

0 votes

13 votes | Poll has closed

Do you think he has a chance of getting playing time in 2012? If so, how do you think he'll do? I personally believe Morneau really is done and is just one headache away from retirement... it's worth noting also that Parmelee played some OF in the minors, so he could be an option in LF if the Twins tire of Revere/Plouffe.

His numbers in the majors were very encouraging... he hasn't showed a lot in the minors, but he was originally seen as a power hitting prospect, and while the sample size was small, he showed good plate discipline in his cup of coffee. Personally I think that if given regular at-bats he could put up numbers with a floor along the lines of Valencia and a ceiling closer to Lind. What do you think about him?

My AL-only Roto fantasy league recently decided to count minor league games the same as major league games as far as major league eligibility is required (20 games total at any position to qualify there). I'm definitely annoyed by this as it adds salt to the wound of me failing to acquire Jesus Montero when his stock was low... but I'm trying to see if I can find any guys who qualify at scarce positions based on their minor league position eligibility. Here's what I got so far, as far as major league-ready talent is concerned:

Vinnie Catricala (3B, OF, 1B)

Kyle Seager (SS, 2B, 3B)

Josh Donaldson (C, 3B) - (we play in a 2 catcher league)

Russ Canzler (1B)

Chris Carter (1B)

I think those guys could have sneaky value as many people in my league may not realize that they qualify...

Any other guys who either qualify at similarly unexpected positions based on minor league eligibility?

Poll

Who is the best sneaky eligibility player of these guys?

37%

Vinnie Catricala at 3B

3 votes

50%

Kyle Seager at SS

4 votes

12%

Josh Donaldson at C

1 votes

8 votes | Poll has closed

So I'm in an AL-only auction keeper roto league ($50 salary cap for 23 players), and am looking to make a deal... I would trade:

Two years of Ian Kinsler at $4.75 with an option for a third year at $5.75, two years of Jarrod Saltalamacchia at $1.75, and two years of Brandon McCarthy at $0.25 with an option for a third year at $1.25

for

Four years of Carlos Santana at $4.00, two years of Ryan Raburn at $0.25, and two years of David Price at $3.50.

I'm thinking of doing this deal mostly because my league doesn't have a huge emphasis on stolen bases (1 of 9 offensive categories), and I'd be getting Santana for a longer deal than I'd have Kinsler. Raburn does have some playing time concerns, but Salty's job isn't exactly secure, and while I like McCarthy, especially with that contract, I'd rather have the sure thing in Price.

What are your thoughts? Would you still like this deal even if Price/McCarthy was taken out of the deal?

Poll

Should I make this trade offer?

33%

Yes, even if McCarthy/Price was taken out of it

10 votes

53%

Yes, but not if McCarthy/Price was taken out of it

16 votes

13%

No, regardless of whether McCarthy/Price was in it

4 votes

0%

No, only if McCarthy/Price was taken out of it (maybe you really like McCarthy at that salary)

0 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

Well, there's one good thing about waking up at 5 A.M. on a Monday, and this is it.

2012 Top 101 Prospects
1. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
4. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers
5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
6.Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles
7. Jesus Montero, C, Mariners
8. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles
9. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates
10. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
11. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Diamondbacks
12. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins
13. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates
14. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners
15. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
16. Travis D'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays
17. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians
18. Gary Brown, OF, Giants
19. Wil Myers, OF, Royals
20. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies
21. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks
22. Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds
23. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals
24. Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds
25. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets
26. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
27. Bubba Starling, OF, Royals
28. Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays
29. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees
30. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets
31. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals
32. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox
33. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins
34. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Rockies
35. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners
36. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
37. Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks
38. Yasmani Grandal, C, Padres
39. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
40. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees
41. Randall Delgado, RHP, Braves
42. Luis Heredia, RHP, Pirates
43. Josh Bell, OF, Pirates
44. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
45. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers
46. Brandon Jacobs, OF, Red Sox
47. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals
48. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Astros
49. George Springer, OF, Astros
50. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Athletics
51. Trevor May, RHP, Phillies
52. Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres
53. Robbie Erlin, RHP, Padres
54. Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays
55. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox
56. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates
57. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres
58. Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Padres
59. James Paxton, LHP, Mariners
60. A.J. Cole, RHP, Athletics
61. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
62. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
63. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees
64. Brad Peacock, RHP, Athletics
65. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays
66. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs
67. Jean Segura, SS, Angels
68. Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays
69. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals
70. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers
71. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
72. Sonny Gray, RHP, Athletics
73. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros
74. Joe Wieland, RHP, Padres
75. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
76. Robbie Grossman, OF, Pirates
77. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers
78. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres
79. Chad Bettis, RHP, Rockies
80. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins
81. Addison Reed, RHP, White Sox
82. John Lamb, LHP, Royals
83. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Royals
84. Jessie Biddle, LHP, Phillies
85. Jonathan Schoop, INF, Orioles
86. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Padres
87. Eddie Rosario, OF/2B, Twins
88. Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals
89. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets
90. Joe Benson, OF, Twins
91. Matt Purke, LHP, Nationals
92. Wily Peralta, RHP, Brewers
93. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Blue Jays
94. Austin Hedges, C, Padres
95. Joe Ross, RHP, Padres
96. Derek Norris, C, Athletics
97. Tim Wheeler, OF, Rockies
98. Ryan Lavarnway, C, Red Sox
99. Mason Williams, OF, Yankees
100. Grant Green, OF, Athletics
101. Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers

My intial reactions:

1. Surprised to see Sano so high. I know KG loves him, but he does have significant flaws and is so far away from the majors still. Also surprised to see Starling and Marisnick so high, but then again KG definitely puts a premium on upside over major league readiness. Still, the Lindor grade really is shocking (any BP readers that get that joke, high five)

2. Good to see that KG gives Olt the prospect love he deserves. Also like his only semi-conservative ranking of Banuelos, and proper respect for Choice, Sanchez, D'Arnaud.

3. Very surprised to see him rank Bundy over Bauer. That is certainly a bold minority opinion, but I can certainly see it coming true. He really doesn't seem too enthused on Hultzen or Paxton though.

4. Nick Franklin was a rather surprising omission. He's never been a fan of him much due to his size and position questions, but I still think he belongs in the top 100. He seems rather bearing on Hak-Ju as well, though I don't disagree with that.

5. Some guys I did not expect to be as high as they were ranked (not that I necessarily disagree): Daniel Norris, Sonny Gray, Cory Spangenberg, John Lamb, Kolten Wong, Jake Odorizzi

Thought it's about time I make one of these. I only specialize in the AL, someone can feel free to make an NL list. Keep in mind that these rankings have a Fantasy slant, and so I tend to prefer Major League ready talent than far away talent. I also tend to prefer elite hitters to elite pitchers in general, power/hitting more than speed and little emphasis on defense, except as it relates to their ability to stay at a position. Therefore. this is far from the consensus at times. Without further ado, my top 50 list:

Continue reading this post »

John did a piece on a lot of these guys a while back, but I wanted to look at them from a fantasy perspective. They'd only be worth considering in very deep leagues, as they will probably go undrafted in most AL-only leagues since they're not even guaranteed playing time. Then again, Mark Trumbo was one of those guys last year. So here I'm looking at some deep sleeper candidates to see if we can find any diamonds in the rough. Or, bronze, more likely, which is still better than sand.

Poll

Which hitter is going to have the best year in 2012?

23%

Trevor Plouffe

15 votes

26%

Casper Wells

17 votes

25%

Eduardo Nunez

16 votes

11%

Andy Dirks

7 votes

12%

Brent Lillibridge

8 votes

63 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

Many fantasy leaguers use general fantasy guides and magazines to prepare for their draft, and those usually use the standard 4x4 or 5x5 categories. But not everyone is in leagues with those categories, so there can be some inefficiencies a savvy owner could take advantage of.

For example, in my league (auction roto - 14 hitters, 9 pitchers) the offensive categories are HR, AVG, Runs Produced (RBI + R - HR) and Net Bases (TB +BB) with Stolen Bases as a half-category... leading that category will net you 5 pts as opposed to 10 for the others.

For pitching, the categories are ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Net Wins (2xW - L) and Saves as a half category.

With these settings, and reduced emphasis for Saves and Steals, is it a wise strategy to throw one or both of those half-categories? Also, does it make an excellent starting pitcher more valuable, since they contribute to 4.5/5 categories instead of 4/5? I'm debating whether I should go for a bat like Teixeira/Fielder or an arm like Felix... not sure if Felix's stats will have a bigger impact since there are only 9 pitchers to 14 hitters.

Any advice? Also feel free to post your own league's unusual categories and how it changes your draft strategy.

I'm not talking guys like Dayan Viciedo and Nolan Reimold. I mean SUPER deep, guys who will probably go undrafted in most AL-only leagues since they're not even guaranteed playing time. Then again, Mark Trumbo was one of those guys last year. So here I'm looking at some deep sleeper candidates to see if we can find any diamonds in the rough. Or, bronze, more likely, which is still better than sand.

Poll

Which deep sleeper will have the best season in 2011?

24%

Trevor Plouffe

9 votes

16%

Casper Wells

6 votes

32%

Eduardo Nunez

12 votes

16%

Andy Dirks

6 votes

10%

Brent Lillibridge

4 votes

37 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

Around Minorleagueball, there seems to be a pretty strong opinion that Baneulos and Betances are very close, with some giving Betances the edge and more giving it to Banuelos, but often by a small margin. However, there is one big difference between the two players... Betances is 24, Banuelos is 21. The difference in projection for the two of them is pretty clear...Betances has a much worse bet of improving his control, and Banuelos was playing at a high level for his age. He didn't wow as much as he did last year, but he has also moved through the system quickly after his breakthrough, much faster than Betances.

People give Perez a pass when his struggles have been much more pronounced at higher levels, but I think there's a bit of a Yankee-hype backlash going around here, focusing more on what he didn't do than what he did do in his age 20 season. He still held his own with a decent K rate and good GB tendencies, which will play well in Yankee Stadium. With another year in Triple-A to work on his stuff, I think there's a very real chance he gets to focus more on controlling his stuff and refining his secondary stuff to become a #2 or #3 starter with Latos-like upside.

I haven't read MLB.com or PP's justification for the Banuelos ranking, just trying to figure if they are seeing something that we are not. And for the record, I'm a Red Sox fan.

Poll

Is Manny Banuelos a Top 10 pitching prospect?

32%

Yes

58 votes

67%

No

119 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

Every year, certain young pitchers fall from grace in a dramatic fashion. Also, some rise from the ashes and redeem some of their former glory. This year, two of the brightest potential pitching stars in the AL completely fell apart at the major league level, so it's worth looking to see if there's a potential for a rebound. In keeper fantasy leagues, it could be a medium-risk, high reward play... the risk coming from them getting a chance again before they're ready, but they could always figure things out in the minors and be great down the line.

Kyle Drabek - Just last year, we was rated as a potential ace by all major sources, with plus-plus stuff and good enough command to make a fantasy impact. Then his control bottomed out, walking 55 in 78 2/3 innings, with only 51 strikeouts, and getting clobbered to the tune of a 6.06 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. I've always been a little sour on him as a prospect due to his control, and always reminded me too much of Andrew Miller, another big power curve guy who just could never harness his control enough to succeed.

But he still shows flashes of greatness, and his K rate isn't too bad if he could get his stuff under control. But the Jays still have a slew of prospects that probably have a leg up on him until he impresses. Still, I think when he's ready, he'll be given the chance, if not by the Jays, by another team.

Brian Matusz - Okay so he's not really a "prospect" like Drabek in that he had already begun to establish himself in the majors. But I think it's an interesting face-off, since he proved to be legit in 2010, and then had a total collapse in 2011, with a historically bad 10.69 ERA and 2.11 WHIP. You can attribute it to his fastball velocity, but it was clear something else was going on as well for such a drastic change to occur. He never did figure it out, but was thrown out there anyway because they're the O's.

Reasons for optimism, is that his K/BB wasn't all that terrible at 38/24 in 49 2/3 innings, and that he had previously succeeded in the majors, looking on track to at least be a good #2, and is still only 24. The lack of depth in the O's rotation means he's more likely to be given a chance soon, but potentially before he's ready.

Carlos Carrasco - A beast of a different nature, Carlos actually was pretty good in 2011. He ended with an 85/40 K/BB and 4.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 124 2/3 innings, and some of those numbers went down because he was likely pitching hurt. But he had some maturity issues, and while serving a suspension was knocked out for the entire 2012 season due to Tommy John. He'll have to take time to recover and is a risk since it's unclear if he will have his stuff that he showed this year.

However, he plays in the far more forgiving AL central and could still be ready to contribute to a major league team before Drabek or Matusz if he doesn't miss a beat. If he's physically ready, he should get the chance, as the Indians are hurting for back-of-rotation help and don't have good farm candidates. He could still be rushed back if he recovers well and the Tribe is in contention, but that could be a bad thing.

Poll

Which pitcher would you take a chance on as a long-term keeper?

35%

Kyle Drabek

56 votes

51%

Brian Matusz

80 votes

12%

Carlos Carrasco

20 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

I can't help but feel like he's not getting the attention he deserves in prospect circles. He is the same age as guys like Olt and Middlebrooks, and he has produced at Double-A with a lower K rate, plate discipline, average, and pretty good power. While he is unlikely to have the defense to play at 3B, or possibly even OF, there have been plenty of other bat-first prospects who have been excused for their poor defense, with the mantra "the bat will find a way" (Mat Gamel comes to mind). It sure didn't hurt Cuthbert's rating, although I know with him he has a greater chance of improving due to his age.

John gave him a B-, although he admitted it may be too low, and KG labelled him as a 3 star prospect, saying "he's an all-bat prospect, but it's quite a bat". KG projects Cat to reach the majors in late 2012, and I feel that at the very least he makes a great fantasy sleeper since he'll probably get ignored by most majors lists. Is there something I'm missing that is a serious red flag or reason that he shouldn't be expected to succeed in the majors?

In an AL-only league (14 Hitters (2 Catchers) and 9 pitchers) I was just offered Mark Reynolds, Robinson Cano, Joe Mauer, and Sergio Santos for Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Joe Nathan. Let's assume I can't keep any of these players in the future.

In my league, the offensive categories are Home Runs, Batting Avg., Runs Produced (Runs + RBI - HR), Total Bases + walks, and Stolen bases as a half category (5 points instead of 10). Pitching categories are ERA, Net Wins, WHIP, and Saves as a half category.

It's a tough choice because I love Miggy buy I'm nervous about Salty's future playing time and Peralta having a down season... then again Mauer's health, while currently reported at 100%, could swing the offer. I consider the closer thing to be basically a wash, maybe a slight favorite to Santos but it's not my main focus, I care more about the offense. What are your thoughts here?

Poll

Which package of players is better for my team (non-keeper)?

26%

Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joe Nathan

16 votes

73%

Mark Reynolds, Robinson Cano, Joe Mauer, Sergio Santos

44 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

At least we're pretty sure it's him, based on what he's given away thus far. Has some interesting stuff to say... he also does not know what sabermetrics are. And says 80% of players on his minor league team (or in minor league baseball in general) use dip. And I'm just filling up words since you can see all this for yourselves.

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/oa934/iama_top_prospect_in_the_mlb_minor_league_system/

KG's new list is out:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Michael Choice, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jarrod Parker, RHP
3. A.J. Cole, RHP
4. Brad Peacock, RHP
5. Sonny Gray, RHP
6. Derek Norris, C
7. Grant Green, OF
Three-Star Prospects
8. Chris Carter, 1B
9. Collin Cowgill, OF
10. Raul Alcantara, RHP
11. Max Stassi, C

Nine More
12. Michael Taylor, OF: He made some improvements in 2011, but the A's showed "confidence" in Taylor by acquiring Reddick and re-signing Crisp.
13. Josh Donaldson, C: He doesn’t have any star-level tools, but he has improved defensively and has always had solid power.
14. Yordy Cabrera, SS: He had an ugly full-season debut in 2011, but the seven-figure tools are still there.
15. Bobby Crocker, OF: This 2011 fourth-round pick is a big-time athlete with speed and power potential.
16. Aaron Shipman, OF: He could explode with some hitting refinements due to his speed and advanced approach.
17. Vicmal De La Cruz, OF: De La Cruz was beat up in the Dominican Summer League. His speed and bat are his best tools.
18. Ian Krol, LHP: He lost 2011 due to injury, but his instructional league showing has officials optimistic for a bounceback.
19. Miles Head, 1B/3B: Head came over in the Andrew Bailey trade. There is nothing pretty about what he does, but his power is significant.
20. Jermaine Mitchell, OF: He finally had his breakout season, but he is also 27 now.

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One of my favorite draft day pickups from the scrap heap last year was Brandon McCarthy. He put together a campaign better than even his supporters expected, going 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 123 Strikeouts in 170 2/3 innings, after significant changes to his pitching style over the previous offseason. He's a hard guy to get a clear picture of his fantasy worth, as it's tempting to write it off as a fluke. Here's the argument for both sides of the coin:

Bust - McCarthy has been extremely injury prone his entire career, and even last year after a new approach was hit by the injury bug. The kind of injuries he has had were not "fluke" injuries either... most have been shoulder-related, which can often recur and severely impact performance or require surgery. His walk rate is likely to rise, as his F-Strike% was pretty good but not good enough to be 3rd best in the league again, since it was close to his 2009 F-Strike% when he had 3.3 BB/9. Add in a shaky A's defense, an even more horrific offense for run support (and a departed closer to boot), and a meh K rate, and he's just not that great a fantasy commodity and likely to be overrated on draft day. His ERA will attract fantasy owners, but all of the risks involved should make him worth no more than a late-round flier.

Sleeper - From a FIP standpoint, McCarthy actually underperformed his peripherals in 2011. His FIP was 2.86, best in the AL right in front of Verlander and Sabathia, and his XFIP was 3.30, still a tad lower than his ERA. The A's Crisp signing will help keep outfield defense solid, and the A's are unlikely to repeat the infield defensive collapse of 2011 (especially Barton, who is normally a great defender). While he had an injury this year, the fact that he not only recovered well, but was better afterwards is also encouraging. The biggest thing people overlook, however, are his season splits: He had a 3.52 ERA pre-All Star Break with a 46/12 K/BB in 76 1/3 Innings, and drastically improved in the second half to the tune of a 3.15 ERA with a 77/13 K/BB in 94 1/3 Innings in the second half with two 10-K games in September. That's a 7.35 K rate and 1.24 BB rate, and if he can come close to maintaining those rates in 2012, he can be a Roy Halladay-lite still available in the middle to later rounds.

What's your prediction for McCarthy for 2012?

Poll

Is Brandon McCarthy a sleeper or a bust for 2012?

51%

Sleeper

72 votes

17%

Bust

25 votes

30%

Neither

42 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

For those in fantasy leagues that value call-ups that are major-league ready, or just for minor league fans that are impatient to see their players in the majors, it's always fun to speculate when their favorite prospects will reach the big show. I've been trying to figure out for myself the ETA of a lot of these high upside bats based on their likely progression through the minors, major league team contracts and team promotion aggressiveness. But for now I'll withhold my opinion and see what you guys think their ETAs will be (not counting September call-ups) and see what your predictions are on:

Jurickson Profar

Gary Sanchez

Xander Bogaerts

Cheslor Cuthbert

Bubba Starling

Nick Castellanos

Miguel Sano

Poll

Who is going to reach the majors first?

42%

Jurickson Profar

74 votes

6%

Gary Sanchez

12 votes

5%

Xander Bogaerts

9 votes

9%

Cheslor Cuthbert

16 votes

3%

Bubba Starling

6 votes

21%

Nick Castellanos

38 votes

11%

Miguel Sano

20 votes

175 votes | Poll has closed

I'm in an AL only roto keeper league with an auction draft, and one of my favorite strategies is to wait until the end of the draft for some endgame picks at league minimum salary, then deal them as keepers for better players if I'm in contention. Last year I nabbed Melky Cabrera and Brantley, guys like Boesch, Francouer, and Bourjos were some other finds for other teams.

So who are going to be those lucky guys this year? I feel like there are a lot of interesting guys on the scrap heap to choose from.

Travis Snider - May not enter 2012 with a starting role, but still hard not to buy on his potential. He's still young and for what it's worth, displayed surprising baserunning ability. But where's the power? I'm banking on it returning, but he's definitely a high-risk, high-reward guy.

Nolan Reimold - Think he's a pretty fair bet to be solid, but they say he'll be in a platoon... I don't see it lasting. Chavez was a flash in the pan and Reimold could put on a fair power display with a .260 avg and a few SB. Kind of a "safe" pick, as he has little competition and solid skills but modest upside.

Franklin Gutierrez - What was eating him in 2011? Or rather, what was he eating? He's probably fallen entirely off the radar for many after the stomach bug that derailed his season, but when healthy he presents an intriguing power/speed combo, and his great D ensures regular at-bats.

Dayan Viciedo - Put up great numbers in the minors and finally quelling concerns about not succeeding at higher levels due to plate discipline. Still may slip due to ho-hum majors performance, and current lack of a spot until a trade happens. But should be great when he gets his chance, as it should come by June at the latest.

Michael Taylor - Former top prospect had a semi-rebound from his putrid 2010 campaign, still wondering if the power was an illusion all along. He'll get a chance to prove himself in Oakland's void of an outfield though.

Colin Cowgill - He's guaranteed some playing time, and can contribute in speed...but his upside is pretty low.

Alejandro De Aza - Another gamble guy who seems to be pretty polarizing among forecasters. When he came up it was practically a punchline that this no-namer was taking PT from Rios, but looking at the stats more closely, he was actually really good, and it's not inconceivable that he could be a good value due to his high average and steals potential. Question is whether he can sustain it for 2012 or if he's a flash in the pan.

How would you rank them, from best to worst? Discuss.

Poll

Who will put up the best fantasy numbers in 2012?

20%

Travis Snider

6 votes

20%

Nolan Reimold

6 votes

20%

Franklin Gutierrez

6 votes

10%

Dayan Viciedo

3 votes

20%

Michael Taylor

6 votes

6%

Colin Cowgill

2 votes

0%

Alejandro De Aza

0 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

I wanted to hear your thoughts on the three high-upside arms that will making the switch back to a starter, hoping their story will be more C.J. Wilson, less Joba Chamberlain.

Poll

Who will put up the best numbers in 2012?

6%

Daniel Bard

7 votes

40%

Chris Sale

47 votes

53%

Neftali Feliz

62 votes

116 votes | Poll has closed

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Hey, I've been trying to find monthly minor league splits to see if there's accuracy to the claim that Michael Choice improved his K rate every successive month in 2011, but after looking everywhere, was unable to find a minor league stats site that had minor league splits by month (looked through baseballcube, baseball reference, milb.com, etc.)

Anyone know of any sites or pages that have this information? I would have thought it wouldn't be so hard to find.

From Rotoworld:

Red Sox purchased the contract of C-DH Ryan Lavarnway from Triple-A Pawtucket.

Lavarnway will serve as the designated hitter and bat seventh in his major league debut Thursday night against the Royals. The 24-year-old has had a monster season in the minor leagues, batting .293/.372/.559 with 30 homers and 85 RBI between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket. He should see plenty of playing time while David Ortiz (heel) is sidelined, so go ahead and pick him up in AL-only formats.

 

  How do you think he'll do?  Any chance he finds a way on to the red sox 2012 opening day roster?  I've always been a fan of his ability and think his defense has improved enough to be semi-adequate defensively and much better than Montero, but I'm not sure if he'll find an opportunity without a trade...

Keep in mind that my rankings tend to have a fantasy slant to them... which means I am skeptical of pitchers and don't take defense into account.  That being said I am not a huge fan of speedsters, and prefer sluggers who know how to take a walk. 

I also take ETA into account more than most prospect lists, and thus prefer fast movers to long-term projects.  I'm also not including recent graduates (Jennings, Trout, Kipnis etc.)  I am including Turner though.

I'm also just giving my opinion, not trying to conform with the other lists, or just to be different.  With that said, here goes nothing.

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As a minor league-focused community, I think we're pretty much the last guys to give up on prospects in many cases.  We have seen how prospect stock ebbs and flows, and how many talented players eventually get their chance, even if it takes years (see Jack Cust, Josh Hamilton, etc).

But it's a fact of the matter that some prospects just don't have what it takes to succeed in the major leagues, and it's wise to cut bait on them early.  I'm not really talking about injured players here.

Who would you say is one prospect who was highly rated entering the season (top 100), who you think the ship has passed on and are no longer valuable, not counting injuries?  I would say if I had to pick one off the top of my head, it would be Chris Carter of the A's.  Sure he may get another chance, and he has great power, but he's already pretty old for a prospect and seems unable to keep a respectable K/BB at the major league level.  Who is your pick?

Both of these former outfield prospects have a few things in common.  Both are power hitting prospects, who had plate discipline concerns coming into 2011 and were both rated B- in John's 2011 Prospect Handbook.  Both are 24 years old, and have hit well enough this year to earn callups, and have had enough success in their limited time in the majors to force their way into the lineup.  But that's where the similarities end.

Prospect history/Pedigree

John discussed this in his writeup, but Eric Thames had been battling injuries in 2009, and resorted to yoga, which helped his flexibility and agility, and he exploded for Double-A last year hitting .288/.370/.526 with 27 HRs.  But with a 121/50 K/BB in 496 ABs, he didn't receive a lot of hype.  That being said, John rated him as a B- this preseason, saying he really like Thames' power bat, and while he didn't make KG's as more than an add-on, Keven acknowledged that the rating may be low, as he could become a regular someday.

Reddick was once higher up on prospect lists soon after being drafted due to his power ability, but started to get overshadowed by fellow prospect Kalish who was seen as a more "complete" hitter.  Indeed, Reddick had decent productions in the minors, but scuffled in two callups to the majors in limited ABs, where his K/BB indicated he was overmatched.  Entering this year, he was rated B- saying that the power remains, but plate discipline remains a major issue, and KG rated him at the top of Boston's 3-star prospects.

Advantage:  Slight Edge to Reddick

 

Minor League Performance 2011

Thames caught a lot of attention with his elite hitting early on, hitting in the .340s with 6 HR and an over 1 OPS, with some stolen bases to boot.  Of course, those numbers were padded by the hitter-friendly PCL and a hitter-friendly park, and his 41/23 K/BB rate stayed almost identical to his previous year in Dunedin.  Still it was enough to get a short callup, and continued to mash when he was sent down in June, earning another chance.

Reddick's 2011 in the minors didn't look as pretty.  He was hitting for power, with 12 HR, but his batting average was in the low .230s in his third time playing in Pawtucket, which is in the less hitter-friendly International League.  However, one thing that stood out from this minor league campaign was his K/BB ratio, which was much closer to 1/1 than his 2010 K/BB rate of 3/1, and earned his callup when injuries struck.  When he got sent down, he still didn't do much with the bat other than a 2 HR day, but the K/BB remained strong and earned another callup when more injuries struck.

Advantage: Slight edge to Thames, even after accounting for league differences and component ratios

 

Major League Performance

Thames hit solidly in his first callup, with a .286 avg. but no HRs, but has hit even better in his more recent stint.  Now he is up to .329 with 3 HRs in 76 ABs for the Blue Jays and has hit successfully in nine straight starts since June 1st and six multihit games.  He also has 5 doubles and 2 triples, huge biceps, and awesome facial hair.. One thing that stands out though amid his hot streak, is his 23/4 K/BB over those 76 ABs, a dangerously high strikeout rate and a much worse rate than he had in Triple A.

Reddick hasn't hit for Thames power, but he has been getting hits since his first callup, and then again in his most recent callup, hitting .422 with 1 HR and 1 SB in 45 AB.  And he has a 7/6 K/BB ratio, and Red Sox officials have commented about his maturation at the plate, saying he has modeled his approach after Gonzalez and Ortiz.  While he only has one home run, he has 4 doubles and 2 triples in fewer ABs than Thames.

Advantage:  Slight edge to Reddick

Opportunity:  Thames's success certainly led to the Jays' decision to part ways with Rivera, and with Toronto's love of power hitters, has a place to stay in the lineup if he keeps hitting.  He's also shown some defensive versatility, being able to play in both left and right field, which is encouraging after starting off mostly playing DH.  When Snider comes back, competition will get tougher, and if Lawrie comes up sooner than expected and Bautista goes back to OF, something will have to give.  But at the moment, it looks like he has the inside track on a regular job.

Reddick, on the other hand, is on the outside looking in, and while the Sox DFA'd Cameron due to Reddick's success, Crawford will be coming back relatively soon, which will leave Reddick battling with Drew for ABs.  Reddick can also play CF, but it may not help much in the stacked Sox lineup unless more injuries strike.  Then there is Kalish, who was great in 2010 before his injury and could fight for PT if healthy.  So Reddick needs to continue hitting and hope that Drew struggles or gets injured to pull a Jed Lowrie on him.

Advantage: Thames

 

Who would you rather have on your team?  Or your fantasy team?  Thames has been flat out mashing everywhere despite his scary component ratios, and Reddick has shown a drastic improvement in plate discipline but is in a tougher struggle for playing time.  Discuss.

Poll

Who is going to be a more productive hitter over the rest of 2011?

67%

Eric Thames

71 votes

32%

Josh Reddick

34 votes

105 votes | Poll has closed

Overall, I have to say the community, compared to past years, has done a great job suppressing the emotional overreaction to struggling high-caliber prospects, as Jesus Montero and Wil Myers. Despite their weak performances this year, Montero is being consistently ranked in the Top 10 still (although #7 on every list, coincidence or groupthink?) and Myers has been in or just outside the top 10.  This makes sense, as both are still very young prospects playing at a high level (21 at Triple-A and 20 at Double-A) and they are still expected to rebound and have very successful MLB careers in time.  What I'm wondering though, is if their struggles will significantly impact their major league ETA?

  The Yankees had a few chances to bring up Montero earlier in the season, both when Posada was struggling and Cervelli broke his foot, and declined to do so.  Now he's a definite trade candidate as the Yankees need help in the back of their rotation and he'll be the player everyone will be asking for.  Of course, on most other teams he would already be a starting catcher or at least a DH.  But if they don't trade him, Montero has been weak defensively and unable to throw out baserunners, and Martin has been solid enough for the money that he's probably not going to see time at catcher this year or probably next year as more than an emergency option.  I doubt they'll bring up Montero this year to DH for Posada, as Posada has been hitting and it would cause an uproar to replace a longtime Yankee midseason, unless Posada really crashes and burns.  So that leaves Opening Day 2012 as a likely ETA for Montero, playing DH.  Problem is, with the Yanks aging as they are, will they choose to use the DH spot to keep another one of their hitters (possibly Jeter) healthy?

As for Myers, he was out with an infection for over a month, and while, unlike Montero, he wasn't expected to reach the majors until 2012 anyway, but if he doesn't start hitting soon, I wonder if the Royals will wait until 2013 to bring him up.  It could be a one-year fluke, but Francouer has actually been far exceeding his low expectations, and young enough that he could latch on to their youth movement if they don't find a suitable trading partner.  The same could be said for Melky Cabrera, which may not seem relevant as most don't expect Myers to play CF, but Melky could be moved around to make room for Cain, who has been producing well in the minors and a real possibility to get a call-up if there's ever an opening.  Gordon is now a fixture in left with Mous at 3rd and Hosmer at 1st, which makes Butler the DH, and despite Butler's okay performance this year, I find it hard to believe they would ever bench him.  And if injuries strike, Kaaihue is tearing up Triple-A again, and while he's 27, he may still get another chance if he forces the issue.  Could the Royals lineup be really be too good already to have room for Myers in 2012?

Of course, while ETA doesn't have a huge impact on future careers, it can mean a lot for many people, especially impatient fans and fantasy leaguers.  What are your thoughts on how and when they'll fit into the major league lineup?