Defending champion (and record-setting points-getter) rjay and fellow Seoul Sisters.com and PakPicker regular shungkim have kicked off the 2011 LPGA Prognostication Derby (named and pretty much founded by 2009 champion Hound Dog).  You can head on over to Mostly Harmless for an explanation of the competition and past results (on the right sidebar, low in the Hitchhiker's Guides section) , a cheat sheet, and a look at their picks.  And you can join in the fun yourself by doing a comment or fanpost here, leaving a comment on one of my '11 Derby posts at MH, or emailing me (see my profile for coordinates) your list or a link to your post.  I'm hoping members of the golfy media choose to join in, even if under pseudonyms.  I'll protect the anonymity of anyone who participates and wants me to!  With the LPGA season beginning in just under 2 weeks, I'll need to hear from you soon.

With all the talk of all the runner-up finishes that Lee Westwood and Suzann Pettersen have been racking up in 2010, the collection of silver Inbee Park's garnered over on the JLPGA this season has been overshadowed. 

Heading into the final round of their season-ending, limited-field, major championship, the Ricoh Cup, Park had a 3-shot lead on fellow rookie, former KLPGA star, and 2010 money-list title holder Sun-Ju Ahn, along with fellow LPGA young gun and 2nd-round leader Mika Miyazato (who was looking for her 2nd JLPGA major title of the season) and JLPGA legend Yuri Fudoh.  Hoping to avoid her 7th 2nd-place finish in her 14th start on tour this season, Park opened today's final round with a birdie, but quickly saw her lead on Ahn dwindle to 1 shot 2 separate times on the front.  With 4 holes to play, she held a slim 2-shot lead, but down the stretch it was Ahn who blinked this time, and just like that, Park had won her 2nd title and 1st major on the JLPGA.  As a result, she rocketed up to 5th on their money list, earning the equivalent of around a million dollars to go nicely with the $825K+ she earned in her 19 LPGA starts. 

Having put the U.S. Women's Open jinx behind her in 2010, Inbee Park is a strong pre-season contender for LPGA Player of the Year in 2011--assuming, of course, that she takes a different approach to scheduling next year.  Early last month, I noticed that Park was skipping the Navistar Classic for a JLPGA event; with her not entering the LPGA Tour Championship this coming week, it's turned out that the Asian swing accounted for her final LPGA events of 2010.  Here's hoping she decides to focus more of her energies on the world's #1 women's tour next season!

Add Inbee Park to my list of multiple winners in 2010!  She held off JLPGA money-list title holder Sun-Ju Ahn down the stretch in the season-ending Ricoh Cup and ended up being the only player under par in the elite field.  Mika Miyazato came 4 shorts shy of getting her 2nd win of the season and 2nd JLPGA major, tying Ahn for 2nd place.  Sakura Yokomine posted her 4th-straight 100-million-yen season thanks to her T9 finish; 2010 was her 6th-straight season finishing 4th or better on the season-ending money list and helped her move to #8 on the all-time JLPGA money list.  The golfer at #1 on that list, Yuri Fudoh, finished T4 and ended 2010 in the top 10 on the money list for the 10th time in her illustrious career.

Back to Park, she ended up winning close to a million dollars on the JLPGA in her rookie season and would have been the hands-down Rookie of the Year as a part-timer but for Sun-Ju Ahn's playing so well as a 1st-time full-timer on tour.  Since Park is skipping the LPGA's season-ending Tour Championship, she'll end 2010 with total winnings just shy of 2 million dollars.  I'd say she's fully recovered from her U.S. Women's Open jinx and is ready to contend for LPGA Player of the Year in 2011!

Mika Miyazato had the field going "Mika, Mika, Mika, Mika!" (think "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!") at the Japan Women's Open this week.  It's strangely fitting that the 1st Japanese golfer to start her professional career on the LPGA made the most prestigious tournament in women's golf in Japan her maiden win as a pro.  And she did it in style, going wire-to-wire and beating world #1 Ai Miyazato by 12 shots, #4 Ya Ni Tseng by 16, #6 Na Yeon Choi by 9, #9 Song-Hee Kim by 18, #16 Sakura Yokomine by 11,  #17 Sun-Ju Ahn by 7, and #19 Chie Arimura by 8.  In so doing, she made up for her collapse after getting to -12 in the final round of last year's JWO.  Her final-round 68 was her 3rd sub-70 round of the week--nobody else in the field broke 70 more than once--and it brought her to -12 in this year's edition.

Mikan won over 28 million yen for her efforts.  But you won't find her on the JLPGA money list.  Just like Paula Creamer several years ago, Ji-Yai Shin a couple of years ago, and Morgan Pressel this year, Mikan's winnings are unofficial.  Like them, she now has the choice of whether to join the JLPGA (either right away or starting next season).  While she and Pressel make up their minds, money-list leader Sun-Ju Ahn's final-round 67 got her near the 90 million yen mark for the 2010 season and extended her lead on Sakura Yokomine to more than 20 million yen. Ahn has a fantastic chance to become the 1st-ever Korean and 2nd-ever non-Japanese money-list leader. (Ai-Yu Tu of Taiwan accomplished this feat in 1982-1986, 1989, and 1991. She was as dominant back then as Yuri Fudoh was in the 2000s and Hisako Higuchi in the 1st decade of the JLPGA's existence!)

Mika Miyazato won the Japan Women's Open by 6 shots today, but that doesn't give a sense of how big a win it was.  Let's count the ways:

1) She beat world #1 Ai Miyazato by 12 shots, #4 Ya Ni Tseng by 16, #6 Na Yeon Choi by 9, and #9 Song-Hee Kim by 18.  And for good measure she beat #16 Sakura Yokomine by 11,  #17 Sun-Ju Ahn by 7, and #19 Chie Arimura by 8.

2) She went wire-to-wire despite bogeying 4 of her last 5 holes on moving day, which had to remind her of her final-round collapse at the JWO last year, when she got to -12 but ended up at -5 after a disastrous 78.  This year, btw, she finished the tournament at -12.

3) Of the 12 rounds in the 60s all week, Mikan had 3 of them.  The other players who broke 70 only did it once each. This course was tough.

4) Only 3 players in the field had fewer than 10 bogeys on the week, but the other 2 to do it, Chie Arimura and Ayako Uehara, had 2 doubles each.  Mikan had none.

5) Mikan had the 2 longest birdie trains of the week.  She took control of the tournament with her 5-hole run late Friday, then locked it down with a 3-hole run on the back 9 on Sunday.

6) To my knowledge, Mikan's the 1st Japanese golfer to start her professional career on the LPGA, so making Japan's most prestigious women's tournament her 1st win as a pro is a vindication of her career choice.

Not too shabby!  Mikan, omedetou gozaimasu!

Mika Miyazato's 5-hole birdie train late in the 2nd round of the Japan Women's Open gives her a 5-shot lead on Chie Arimura heading into the weekend.  At -9, she's matched her performance over the 1st 36 holes in last season's JWO, where she got to -12 in the final round before collapsing. 

Here are the standings, scores, and Rolex Rankings of Mikan's closest pursuers and other notables, with current LPGAers in bold and ex-LPGAers in italics:

1st/-9 Mika Miyazato (68-67) [#39]
2nd/-4 Chie Arimura (70-70) [#19]
T3/-3 Na Yeon Choi (72-69) [#6], Ayako Uehara (68-73) [#62]
T5/-2 Hee Young Park (76-66) [#38], Ai Miyazato (72-70) [#1], Miki Saiki (71-71) [#77]


T11/E Momoko Ueda (74-70) [#35], Eun-Hee Ji (74-70) [#53], Nikki Campbell (72-72) [#41], Sakura Yokomine (73-71) [#16], Yuri Fudoh (70-74) [#23], Ji-Hee Lee (69-75) [#29]

T17/+1 Hyun-Ju Shin (77-68) [#69], Sun-Ju Ahn (73-72) [#17]

T19/+2 Asako Fujimoto (75-71) [#67]

T22/+3 Shinobu Moromizato (73-74) [#27], Ya Ni Tseng (71-76)  [#4]

T26/+4 Yukari Baba (73-75) [#37]

T29/+5 Saiki Fujita (75-74) [#64], Young Kim (75-74) [#55], Eun-A Lim (75-74) [#54], Song-Hee Kim (72-77) [#9]

T44/+7 Mayu Hattori (77-74) [#57], Akane Iijima (74-77) [#51], Na-Ri Kim (74-77) [#45], Mie Nakata (73-78) [#88]

T60/+9 Rui Kitada (79-74) [#56]


I'm seeing a Sunday showdown between the non-related Okinawan Miyazatos in my crystal ball. Mikan had better have a great moving day, given her Sunday struggles and Ai-sama's Sunday heroics this season!

Mika Miyazato's 5-hole birdie train late in the 2nd round of the Japan Women's Open gives her a 5-shot lead on Chie Arimura heading into the weekend.  At -9, she's matched her performance over the 1st 36 holes in last season's JWO, where she got to -12 in the final round before collapsing. 

Here are the standings, scores, and Rolex Rankings of Mikan's closest pursuers and other notables:

1st/-9 Mika Miyazato (68-67) [#39]
2nd/-4 Chie Arimura (70-70) [#19]
T3/-3 Na Yeon Choi (72-69) [#6], Ayako Uehara (68-73) [#62]
T5/-2 Hee Young Park (76-66) [#38], Ai Miyazato (72-70) [#1], Miki Saiki (71-71) [#77]


T11/E Momoko Ueda (74-70) [#35], Eun-Hee Ji (74-70) [#53], Nikki Campbell (72-72) [#41], Sakura Yokomine (73-71) [#16], Yuri Fudoh (70-74) [#23], Ji-Hee Lee (69-75) [#29]

T17/+1 Hyun-Ju Shin (77-68) [#69], Sun-Ju Ahn (73-72) [#17]

T19/+2 Asako Fujimoto (75-71) [#67]

T22/+3 Shinobu Moromizato (73-74) [#27], Ya Ni Tseng (71-76)  [#4]

T26/+4 Yukari Baba (73-75) [#37]

T29/+5 Saiki Fujita (75-74) [#64], Young Kim (75-74) [#55], Eun-A Lim (75-74) [#54], Song-Hee Kim (72-77) [#9]

T44/+7 Mayu Hattori (77-74) [#57], Akane Iijima (74-77) [#51], Na-Ri Kim (74-77) [#45], Mie Nakata (73-78) [#88]

T60/+9 Rui Kitada (79-74) [#56]

Mika Miyazato has a share of the 1st-round lead at the Japan Women's Open after firing a 5-birdie 68 in rainy conditions.  Here's how the other LPGAers (and ex-LPGAers) in the field fared today:

T6/-1 Ya Ni Tseng (71)
T10/E Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, Song-Hee Kim (72)
T16/+1 Shinobu Moromizato (73)
T27/+2 Momoko Ueda, Eun-Hee Ji, Na-Ri Kim (74)
T38/+3 Young Kim (75)
T50/+4 Hee Young Park (76)
T63/+5 Onnarin Sattayabanphot (77)
T92/+8 Akiko Fukushima (80)

Mikan had a great chance to win this event last year, but faltered in the final round after briefly getting to -12 for the tournament.  Bo-Bae Song eventually prevailed over Sakura Yokomine in a playoff; Song, who could have taken LPGA membership this year following her win at the '09 Mizuno Classic, opened with a 75 and Yokomine with a 73.  U.S. Women's Amateur champion Danielle Kang matched Song's 75, while current JLPGA money-list leader Sun-Ju Ahn matched Yokomine and Moromizato's 73s.

I summarize Thursday's results at the Japan Women's Open over at Mostly Harmless.  Here's how the LPGAers (and ex-LPGAers) in the field are doing:

T1/-4 Mika Miyazato (68)
T6/-1 Ya Ni Tseng (71)
T10/E Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, Song-Hee Kim (72)

T16/+1 Shinobu Moromizato (73)
T27/+2 Momoko Ueda, Eun-Hee Ji, Na-Ri Kim (74)
T38/+3 Young Kim (75)
T50/+4 Hee Young Park (76)
T63/+5 Onnarin Sattayabanphot (77)
T92/+8 Akiko Fukushima (80)


Mikan had a great chance to win this event last year, but faltered in the final round after briefly getting to -12 for the tournament.  Bo-Bae Song eventually prevailed over Sakura Yokomine in a playoff; Song, who could have taken LPGA membership this year following her win at the '09 Mizuno Classic, opened with a 75 and Yokomine with a 73.  U.S. Women's Amateur champion Danielle Kang matched Song's 75, while current JLPGA money-list leader Sun-Ju Ahn matched Yokomine and Moromizato's 73s.

It's match play at the Sybase--so anything can happen.  FWIW, here are my predictions for the week!

Whitworth Bracket

Round 1
Ji-Yai Shin (1) v. Kyeong Bae (42): SHIN
Hee-Won Han (32) v. Mika Miyazato (38): M. MIYAZATO
Brittany Lincicome (16) v. Beatriz Recari (62): LINCICOME
Se Ri Pak (17) v. Azahara Munoz (54): PAK
Michelle Wie (8) v. Stacy Prammanasudh (50): WIE
Hee Young Park (25) v. Ji Young Oh (33): H.Y. PARK
Na Yeon Choi (9) v. Karine Icher (57): N.Y. CHOI
Eun-Hee Ji (24) v. Janice Moodie (49): MOODIE

Round 2
Ji-Yai Shin (1) v. Mika Miyazato (38): SHIN
Brittany Lincicome (16) v. Se Ri Pak (17): PAK
Michelle Wie (8) v. Hee Young Park (25): WIE
Na Yeon Choi (9) v. Janice Moodie (49): N.Y. CHOI

Round 3
Ji-Yai Shin (1) v. Se Ri Pak (17): SHIN
Michelle Wie (8) v. Na Yeon Choi (9): N.Y. CHOI

Quarter-Finals: Round 4
Ji-Yai Shin (1) v. Na Yeon Choi (9): N.Y. CHOI

Berg Bracket

Round 1
Ya Ni Tseng (4) v. Wendy Ward (43): TSENG
Candie Kung (29) v. Natalie Gulbis (44): KUNG
Inbee Park (13) v. Laura Diaz (58): I. PARK
Maria Hjorth (20) v. Shanshan Feng (45): HJORTH
Cristie Kerr (5) v. Meaghan Francella (53): KERR
Sun Young Yoo (28) v. Karen Stupples (34): STUPPLES
Song-Hee Kim (12) v. Nicole Castrale (52): S.H. KIM
Momoko Ueda (21) v. Vicky Hurst (37): UEDA

Round 2
Ya Ni Tseng (4) v. Candie Kung (29): TSENG
Inbee Park (13) v. Maria Hjorth (20): I. PARK
Cristie Kerr (5) v. Karen Stupples (34): KERR
Song-Hee Kim (12) v. Momoko Ueda (21): S.H. KIM

Round 3
Ya Ni Tseng (4) v. Inbee Park (13): I. PARK
Cristie Kerr (5) v. Song-Hee Kim (12): S.H. KIM

Quarter-Finals: Round 4
Inbee Park (13) v. Song-Hee Kim (12): S.H. KIM

Wright Bracket

Round 1
Ai Miyazato (2) v. Jeong Jang (51): A. MIYAZATO
M.J. Hur (31) v. Hye Jung Choi (60): H.J. CHOI
Catriona Matthew (15) v. Grace Park (64): MATTHEW
Kristy McPherson (18) v. Meena Lee (47): MCPHERSON
Karrie Webb (7) v. Eunjung Yi (36): WEBB
Stacy Lewis (26) v. Amanda Blumenherst (55): BLUMENHERST
Angela Stanford (10) v. Amy Hung (60): STANFORD
Brittany Lang (23) v. Pat Hurst (41): LANG

Round 2
Ai Miyazato (2) v. Hye Jung Choi (60): A. MIYAZATO
Catriona Matthew (15) v. Kristy McPherson (18): MCPHERSON
Karrie Webb (7) v. Amanda Blumenherst (55): WEBB
Angela Stanford (10) v. Brittany Lang (23): STANFORD

Round 3
Ai Miyazato (2) v. Kristy McPherson (18): A. MIYAZATO
Karrie Webb (7) v. Angela Stanford (10): STANFORD

Quarter-Finals: Round 4
Ai Miyazato (2) v. Angela Stanford (10): A. MIYAZATO

Sorenstam Bracket

Round 1
Suzann Pettersen (3) v. Juli Inkster (35): PETTERSEN
Amy Yang (30) v. Michele Redman (39): YANG
Morgan Pressel (14) v. Jimin Kang (56): PRESSEL
Sophie Gustafson (19) v. Na On Min (63): GUSTAFSON
Anna Nordqvist (6) v. Shi Hyun Ahn (48): NORDQVIST
Jee Young Lee (27) v. Christina Kim (40): J.Y. LEE
In-Kyung Kim (11) v. Haeji Kang (61): I.K. KIM
Katherine Hull (24) v. Sandra Gal (46): HULL

Round 2
Suzann Pettersen (3) v. Amy Yang (30): YANG
Morgan Pressel (14) v. Sophie Gustafson (19): PRESSEL
Anna Nordqvist (6) v. Jee Young Lee (27): J.Y. LEE
In-Kyung Kim (11) v. Katherine Hull (24): I.K. KIM

Round 3
Amy Yang (30) v. Morgan Pressel (14): PRESSEL
Jee Young Lee (27) v. In-Kyung Kim (11): J.Y. LEE

Quarter-Finals: Round 4
Morgan Pressel (14) v. Jee Young Lee (27): J.Y. LEE

Semi-Finals: Round 5
Na Yeon Choi (9) v. Song-Hee Kim (12): N.Y. CHOI
Ai Miyazato (2) v. Jee Young Lee (27): A. MIYAZATO

Finals: Round 6
Na Yeon Choi (9) v. Ai Miyazato (2): N.Y. CHOI
Song-Hee Kim (12) v. Jee Young Lee (27): S.H. KIM

Right around the time I'll be putting my girls to bed tonight, the leaders in the Salonpas Cup--Morgan Pressel (-7), Mayu Hattori (-5), and Sakura Yokomine (-4)--will be teeing off in the final threesome.  If they all falter early, it's possible that Young Kim, Ya Ni Tseng, Ai Miyazato, Seon Hwa Lee, Sophie Gustafson, Teresa Lu, or Momoko Ueda could put themselves in the mix in the JLPGA's 1st major.  Or maybe Bo-Bae Song, who lately seems to elevate her game when competing against LPGAers, could walk away with her 2nd major in the last 8 months.  We'll see!  How close Miyazato and Tseng get to world #1 Ji-Yai Shin in the Rolex Rankings will depend not only on how well they play tomorrow in Japan, but also how badly those ahead of them play.

If my alliteration isn't annoying courtgolf enough, let me add that 2009's top JLPGA player shot a bogey-free 67 to pull within 3 shots of Morgan Pressel in their 1st major of 2010, the Salonpas Cup.  If Sakura Yokomine chases Pressel down on Sunday, will CG admit that JLPGAers got game?  How about if Bo-Bae Song goes on a tear tomorrow and wins her 3rd event with a significant number of non-JLPGAers in the field in the past 8 months?

Yeah, yeah, I know--we're just as likely to see huge comebacks from LPGAers near the top of the leaderboard like Young Kim, Ya Ni Tseng, Ai Miyazato, Seon Hwa Lee, Sophie Gustafson, Teresa Lu, and Momoko Ueda.  But with only Yokomine and Mayu Hattori within 5 shots of Pressel, everyone else is going to need a lot of help from those in the final threesome to have a chance to get in the mix.

Ji-Yai Shin trailed 4 of the best golfers on the JLPGA at the start of the day today at the CyberAgent Ladies, but Chie Arimura, Miho Koga, Sakura Yokomine, and Mi-Jeong ate her dust as she raced Akane Iijima to the finish.  In the end, Iijima needed to outdo Shin by 1 shot on their final hole to force a playoff, but a walkoff bogey on the long par 4 gave Shin a 2-shot margin in her 4th career JLPGA victory.  Shin's closing 66 showed once again why she's known as the "Final Round Queen" in Asia.  And it just may make her known as the 1st golfer to knock Lorean Ochoa from the #1 spot on the Rolex Rankings.

It all depends on how Ochoa plays in the Tres Marias Championship today.  And how much more an Ai Miyazato win there would be worth in Rolex points than Shin's JLPGA victory.  Randall Mell notes that according to the LPGA's unofficial calculations, if Lorena finishes 5th or worse in Morelia, Shin will take the #1 spot from her.  It appears that even a Miyazato win wouldn't be enough to leapfrog her past both Ochoa and Shin.   But given that Shin is sitting out the Salonpas Cup, the JLPGA's 1st major, next week, and Miyazato is jetting back to Japan to compete in it, she could still become the 1st player to supplant Ochoa as the world's best female golfer.  It's all in Lorena's and Ai-sama's hands now.

Ji-Yai Shin just shot a sizzling 66 to turn a 4-shot deficit into a 2-shot victory at the CyberAgent Ladies on the JLPGA.  A 33 on the front brought her within reach of the lead and a 33 on the back sealed the deal.  Shin got a little help from defending champion and 2nd-round leader Chie Arimura, whose late double gave Shin her 1st solo lead of the tournament, as well as from playing partner Akane Iijima, who needed to birdie the 18th to catch her but instead bogeyed it.

Shin's 4th career JLPGA victory may well be her sweetest if it ends up being the one that leapfrogs her past Lorena Ochoa into the #1 position on the Rolex Rankings.  I wonder how high Lorena needs to finish on the leaderboard at the Tres Marias Championship to end her term as an LPGA regular at the top of the world of women's golf?  I wonder whether an Ai Miyazato win in Morelia would be enough to overtake both Shin and Ochoa? 

[Update:  Randall Mell says Shin will be #1 if Ochoa finishes 5th or worse, whether Miyazato wins or not.  But given that Shin is sitting out the JLPGA's 1st major of 2010, the Salonpas Cup, next week and Miyazato is jetting back to Japan to play in it, we could have 3 different #1s from last week to this week to next week!]

Ya Ni Tseng just won the Women's Australian Open and she did it in style, blowing by Hall of Famer Karrie Webb and soon-to-be-Hall of Famer Laura Davies over the last 6 holes  In the process, Tseng denied the pair the chance for their 2nd win on the LET's Down Under swing. 

In the last calendar year, she's earned 2 golds, 3 silvers, 2 bronzes (in the 1st 2 LPGA events of 2010), 11 top 5s, and 16 top 10s in her last 28 starts around the world. And as Tim Maitland recently pointed out, she weathered a big slump (by her standards) mid-way through it all. 

How hot has she been since pulling out of that mini-nosedive?  Well, were it not for her T11 last week at the ANZ Ladies Masters, this win would have been her 10th-straight top 10. 

I wonder who'd win a team match, consisting of Tseng, Ai Miyazato, and Ji-Yai Shin against Lorena Ochoa, Suzann Pettersen, and Cristie Kerr? 

They'll all be going head to head (individually, of course) at La Costa pretty soon.  Can't wait!

As with my other pre-season wins-based rankings, the following tiered and ranked list of the best on the LPGA without a major is ordered partly by how well the golfers on it were playing in the 2nd half of the 2009 season and partly on their annual and career achievements. It's 33% expectations, 33% speculations, and 33% hunches, of course, but hopefully it's better-informed than the now-classic Paula Watch and soon-to-be-classic Wie Watch. The numbers in parentheses are for LPGA wins and international wins (only from the JLPGA, KLPGA, and LET).  Oh, and for my #16-#25, head on over to Mostly Harmless.

Most Likely to Break Through in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato (1/15): 2009, her 1st full healthy season since she was a rookie in 2006, was much more of a return to her normal game than a hot streak. Even in the face of her injuries and their aftermath from mid-2007 to mid-2008, she's still finished in the top 10 in a major each of the 4 seasons she's been an LPGA member--and both years she was healthy she got 2. With Player of the Year firmly in her sights for 2010, she's bought a house in the U.S. and started training in Phoenix. Like Jason Sobel, I expect great things from her this coming season, particularly in the majors. More on that later!
2. Na Yeon Choi (2/4): Barring last season's wind-swept Kraft Nabisco Championship, where she ballooned to T40, her worst finish in a major as an LPGA member has been T21 and she's made the top 10 in half her starts, including her last 3 in a row. And she accomplished all that before she broke through for her 1st and 2nd wins of her short LPGA career in the last third of last season. Watch out for her in 2010!
3. Paula Creamer (8/2): Her LPGA bio page fails to note her 2 JLPGA wins in 2005, which is odd, because they got featured on LPGA.com that year. I mention this to belabor the obvious: as most players in the Double Digits Club in worldwide wins have won at least 1 major, she's just the slightest bit due for her 1st. Since becoming an LPGA member in 2005, her only finish in a major outside the top 25 was in the 2006 LPGA Championship and she's finished inside the top 10 in 40% of her starts, including her last 2 in a row. Given that record, the only reason she's not #1 on this list is the uncertain status of her health in 2010.
4. In-Kyung Kim (2/1): In her last 6 majors, her worst finish has been T28 in the winds at the 2009 KNC; everything else has been a top 20 or better, including 2 T3s at consecutive U.S. Women's Opens. Her season-ending win in Dubai shows she's capable of beating major-quality fields. And that came at the end of a run after her win at the State Farm where she uncharacteristically mixed 4 missed cuts in with many strong tournaments. Imagine what she's capable of when she's rested and prepared for a new season!
5. Michelle Wie (1/0): As much as her rookie season exceeded my expectations, her performance in last year's majors was nowhere near her 7 close calls from 2003-2006, including 6 top 5s. Look for her to rectify that in 2010, although it's still an open question how early her season will start and how rusty she'll be when her winter term (carrying 20 credits at Stanford) ends.
6. Angela Stanford (4/0): Her best chance to win a major to date came in the 2003 U.S. Women's Open, but Hilary Lunke answered Stanford's 27-foot birdie with her own walkoff birdie to win the 18-hole playoff instead. Since then, she's had 10 top-25 finishes in majors, including 2 top 5s at the LPGA Championship. She may have cooled off a bit from her hot streak at the end of 2008 and start of 2009, but she's definitely got the game to win a major in 2010.

The Contenders

7. Song-Hee Kim (0/0): With top 25s in 5 of her last 6 majors, she's got the talent and the game to make her 1st LPGA win a major. I'm talking Cristie Kerr-style talent and game. Let's see if she can catch her in 2010 in total majors won.
8. Seon Hwa Lee (4/3): One of the main reasons she finished so low on the money list in 2009, barely hanging onto the top 30 after being a top 5 threat the previous 2 seasons, was her uncharacteristically bad performances in last year's majors, including a WD at the U.S. Women's Open and an MC at the Women's British Open. Whereas her worst performance in 2008 was a T27 at the U.S. Women's Open, her best in 2009 was a T30 at the wind-blown KNC. Still, last season's overall performance stats were near her career norms and she's going to be able to stay sharp this one by filling out her schedule on the JLPGA. She's shown she can handle big-time pressure, beating Ai Miyazato in the last Women's World Match Play Championship and running up one of the best head-to-head records in international team play ever. I'd love to see the Stone Buddha in the hunt on more than 1 major Sunday this season. As she followed up her 2 top 20s in the 1st 2 majors of 2006 with 2 top 10s in them in 2008, the numbers are in her favor in 2010 (not to mention the Chinese zodiac).
9. Brittany Lang (0/0): She's finished inside the top 40 in 8 of her last 9 majors (the only blemish being a missed cut at the 2008 WBO). She still hasn't improved on her T2 finish (with fellow then-amateur Morgan Pressel) in the 2005 U.S. Women's Open that Birdie Kim won with a walkoff slam dunk from the sand, much less her 1st professional major, a T8 at the KNC. But she's long and straight enough to contend in any major and just needs to have a good putting week to make her 1st LPGA win a major.
10. Sophie Gustafson (5/18): Even though she's played about the same high-quality golf (if rather inconsistently so) over the past 4 seasons and change, the last 2 haven't been as kind to her when it comes to the majors. Compared to 4 top 10s in a 7-major run from the end of 2005 to the middle of 2007, her best recent finish has been a T16 at the 2009 LPGA Championship. But coming off yet another LET money title, she's coming into 2010 with a lot of confidence and gearing up for an early-season charge.
11. Jee Young Lee (1*/2): She's struggled the last 3 majors, after establishing 1 of the best records in them among LPGA's Young Guns, with 3 top 10s capped by a T2 in the WBO in 2007 and no finish worse than T22 between the 2006 LPGA Championship and the 2009 KNC. Her falloff last season, though, was much more severe than Seon Hwa Lee's and she'll need a big comeback in 2010 to put herself back in most conversations about this season's contenders for majors.
12. Momoko Ueda (1*/8): She's been working harder on her game than almost anyone on the LPGA since she joined it in 2008, but unfortunately the results didn't really start to show last season until after she had taken a big step backwards in the majors from her rookie season. Still, she's made 9 straight cuts in majors and is certainly ready to win outside Japan.
13. Katherine Hull (1/0): 2 top 20s last season, including a T8 in the wind at the KNC, show what she's capable of. I've heard on the grapevine that Dean Herden, Ji-Yai Shin's caddy, thinks Hull is on track for a win in 2010, so I emailed him for a quote. I'll insert it here when he gets back to me.
14. Hee-Won Han (6/2): Back when she was among the very best players in the world from 2003-2006, she had 10 top 25s in the majors. But 3 of her best 4 career finishes in them have actually come since her son Dale was born, including a T6 at the windy 2009 KNC (the 2nd in her last 4 starts there) and a T9/T3 combo in the last 2 Women's British Open. Count her out at your own risk!
15. Maria Hjorth (3/5): Don't be fooled by that dip in her majors output in late 2008 or her late start to the 2009 season--both were strictly a pregnancy effect. Now that she's put her maternity leave behind her by getting stronger with each start in 2009, she's ready to be the kind of player again who averaged 2 top 10s a year in 2007 and 2008--although I doubt she'll improve on that T2, 4th, 2nd run from the '07 WBO to the '08 U.S. Women's Open. Her T11 in last season's WBO shows what she's capable of, though.

I'm curious as to which players from my previous wins-based rankings can join the best of the LPGA's best on this list, and how quickly. Will anyone have the kind of wins explosion this coming season that Annika and the #1 player here became famous for? Or will it be more of the steady climb that's characterized the #2 and #3 players here? After the Hall of Famers, there are very few active players who've made it to double digits in career victories left on the LPGA--and very few of them who are still viable threats to add to their totals in 2010. Who will be the next to join the Double Digits Club? Stay tuned!

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Lorena Ochoa (27/2): If 2009 was a down season for the world #1, she's 1 of the 5 best players in LPGA history. Not only did she win her 4th-straight Player of the Year award and Vare Trophy, 2009 was her 5th multiple-win season in her 7-year career on the LPGA and her 6th-straight season in the Million Dollar Club. The only pertinent question for 2010 is how much longer she can remain Queen of the LPGA Hill, now that she's married and has to be thinking about when to add to her new family. To augment her standing in LPGA history, though, she will need to win more majors and have more multi-million dollar seasons with 4 wins or more. After 2010, she needs 2 more full seasons to enter the LPGA Hall of Fame. Will she hold off on having a child of her own until after 2012? Or will she try to add to her legend before then by becoming one of the few moms on tour to keep winning regularly?
2. Paula Creamer (8/0): Even though she didn't win in 2009, she made it her 5th-straight season in the Million Dollar Club and, according to tatkins at Hound Dog LPGA, she had the 3rd-best season on tour (behind only Ochoa and Cristie Kerr) when you consider performance stats alone. So if she's healthy in 2010, I see her having a multiple-win season, particularly if she putts like she's capable of.
3. Cristie Kerr (12/1): Let's see how she bounces back from letting a couple of majors, the Player of the Year award, the Vare Trophy, and the money-list title slip through her fingers in 2009. I see a little bit of a letdown in the 1st half of 2010 for her. But I'd be shocked if she failed to join the Million Dollar Club for the 7th-straight season and failed to win in 2010. If she's going to qualify for the Hall of Fame, though, she'd better pick up the pace!

The Contenders

4. Karrie Webb (36/7): During her 1st 11 seasons on the LPGA, she was a consistent threat for the money-list title (which she took 3 times), Player of the Year award (twice), and Vare Trophy (3 times, the lowest scoring average of the 3 coming in 1999, at 69.43). In her 14-year LPGA career, she's never finished outside the top 30 on the money list, never had a scoring average above 72, only twice failed to make the top 20 on the money list (these were the only times her scoring average rose above 71.50), and only 3 times failed to enter the winner's circle (each of those seasons, her best finish was 2nd). The thing is, all 3 of those seasons came in the last 5 years, which raises some nagging doubts about 2010. A key for her this coming season will be continuing to improve her driving accuracy, as she did in 2009. Giving herself better looks at the green will translate into more and better birdie opportunities and could reignite her putter, which has been her Achilles heel since the 2007 season.
5. Se Ri Pak (24/5): From 1998-2004, she was one of the 3 best players in the world of women's golf, racking up 22 golds, 14 silvers, 6 bronzes, and 83 top 10s in all. She won the Vare Trophy in 2003 with a 70.03 scoring average, but not in 2002 with a 69.85 one or in 2001 with a 69.69 (thanks, Annika!). She was a 4-time silver medalist on the money list and 2-time bronze medalist during this stretch. She hasn't been quite that dominant since then, but she won her 5th major in dramatic fashion at the 2006 Kraft Nabisco Championship and became a 5-time winner of the Farr in 2007, the year she was inducted into the Hall of Fame. With her driver getting back on track in 2009, all she needs in 2010 is for more putts to drop to show the cohort of "Dragon Ladies" inspired by her 1998 U.S. Women's Open victory a thing or 2 about winning on the LPGA.
6. Helen Alfredsson (7/1): Her scoring average in 2009 was her 4th-lowest ever, even better than some from 1992-1995, when she was a fixture on the top 20. As long as she stays healthy, I don't see any reason why she shouldn't notch her 3rd-straight top 40 season in 2010, which would be the 2nd-longest streak of such consistently strong play in her 18-year career on the LPGA.

For the other 7, head on over to Mostly Harmless!

As with my other pre-season wins-based rankings, the following tiered and ranked list of the best on the LPGA without a major is ordered partly by how well the golfers on it were playing in the 2nd half of the 2009 season and partly on their annual and career achievements. It's 33% expectations, 33% speculations, and 33% hunches, of course, but hopefully it's better-informed than the now-classic Paula Watch and soon-to-be-classic Wie Watch. Oh, and the numbers in parentheses are for LPGA wins and international wins (only from the JLPGA, KLPGA, LET).

Most Likely to Break Through in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato (1/15): 2009, her 1st full healthy season since she was a rookie in 2006, was much more of a return to her normal game than a hot streak. Even in the face of her injuries and their aftermath from mid-2007 to mid-2008, she's still finished in the top 10 in a major each of the 4 seasons she's been an LPGA member--and both years she was healthy she got 2. With Player of the Year firmly in her sights for 2010, she's bought a house in the U.S. and started training in Phoenix. Like Jason Sobel, I expect great things from her this coming season, particularly in the majors. More on that later!

2. Na Yeon Choi (2/4): Barring last season's wind-swept Kraft Nabisco Championship, where she ballooned to T40, her worst finish in a major as an LPGA member has been T21 and she's made the top 10 in half her starts, including her last 3 in a row. And she accomplished all that before she broke through for her 1st and 2nd wins of her short LPGA career in the last third of last season. Watch out for her in 2010!

3. Paula Creamer (8/2): Her LPGA bio page fails to note her 2 JLPGA wins in 2005, which is odd, because they got featured on LPGA.com that year. I mention this to belabor the obvious: as most players in the Double Digits Club in worldwide wins have won at least 1 major, she's just the slightest bit due for her 1st. Since becoming an LPGA member in 2005, her only finish in a major outside the top 25 was in the 2006 LPGA Championship and she's finished inside the top 10 in 40% of her starts, including her last 2 in a row. Given that record, the only reason she's not #1 on this list is the uncertain status of her health in 2010.

4. In-Kyung Kim (2/1): In her last 6 majors, her worst finish has been T28 in the winds at the 2009 KNC; everything else has been a top 20 or better, including 2 T3s at consecutive U.S. Women's Opens. Her season-ending win in Dubai shows she's capable of beating major-quality fields. And that came at the end of a run after her win at the State Farm where she uncharacteristically mixed 4 missed cuts in with many strong tournaments. Imagine what she's capable of when she's rested and prepared for a new season!

5. Michelle Wie (1/0): As much as her rookie season exceeded my expectations, her performance in last year's majors was nowhere near her 7 close calls from 2003-2006, including 6 top 5s. Look for her to rectify that in 2010, although it's still an open question how early her season will start and how rusty she'll be when her winter term (carrying 20 credits at Stanford) ends.

6. Angela Stanford (4/0): Her best chance to win a major to date came in the 2003 U.S. Women's Open, but Hilary Lunke answered Stanford's 27-foot birdie with her own walkoff birdie to win the 18-hole playoff instead. Since then, she's had 10 top-25 finishes in majors, including 2 top 5s at the LPGA Championship. She may have cooled off a bit from her hot streak at the end of 2008 and start of 2009, but she's definitely got the game to win a major in 2010.

For the next 19, head on over to Mostly Harmless!

Over at Mostly Harmless, I preface my ranking of the the 15 active players on the LPGA with 3 to 6 career wins by considering what it would mean for the players on my other lists to join this one.  Here are the 4 players on the top of this list who I think have the best chance of adding to their victory totals in 2010.

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ji-Yai Shin (6/1): 3 of her wins, including her only major thus far, the Women's British Open, came before she was even an LPGA member, and after the end of her rookie year, she maintained her 3 wins per season rate. I'm wondering what she's capable of when she actually gets comfortable on tour. She's set her sights squarely on LPGA Player of the Year in 2010 and has told the Korean media she plans to play less on the JLPGA. Which means we can expect a minimum of 4 LPGA wins from her in the coming season. For more reasons why, check out the guest post from Tim Maitland I'm putting up at my place at lunchtime.

2. Suzann Pettersen (6/1): Just as she had to wait a long time for her 1st win, she had to wait a long time for her 6th. But she convinced me during that drought that she's truly one of the tour's elite players. While I don't see another 5-win season on her horizon, I wouldn't be surprised if she won a couple of tournaments in 2010.

3. Angela Stanford (4/0): Like Pettersen, her wins have come largely in bunches. She won twice at the end of 2008, when it seemed like she was putting herself in contention every week, then won the opening event of 2009. And even though she's endured a little bit of a drought since then--due in no small part to taking time away from golf to support her mom during her cancer treatments--she improved all her key stats from 2008 to 2009. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see her to become the top American on tour in 2010.

4. Seon Hwa Lee (4/0): Although 2009 was a down year for her in wins and winnings, her key performance stats were right around her career norms, which had been good enough to make her a top 5 threat in her 1st 3 seasons on the LPGA. The 2006 Rookie of the Year is still averaging 1 win per season, so watch out for her in 2010. Accustomed to playing 30 events a year, she'll stay sharp when the LPGA's schedule goes dark, thanks to her dual membership on the LPGA and JLPGA. I expect her to win more often there than here, but you never know.

Over at Mostly Harmless, I preface my ranking of the the top 15 active players on the LPGA with 3 to 6 career wins by considering what it would mean for the players on my other lists to join this one.  Here are the 10 players already n this list that I think have the best chance of adding to their victory totals in 2010.

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ji-Yai Shin (6/1): 3 of her wins, including her only major thus far, the Women's British Open, came before she was even an LPGA member, and after the end of her rookie year, she maintained her 3 wins per season rate. I'm wondering what she's capable of when she actually gets comfortable on tour. She's set her sights squarely on LPGA Player of the Year in 2010 and has told the Korean media she plans to play less on the JLPGA. Which means we can expect a minimum of 4 LPGA wins from her in the coming season. For more reasons why, check out the guest post from Tim Maitland I'm putting up here at lunchtime.
2. Suzann Pettersen (6/1): Just as she had to wait a long time for her 1st win, she had to wait a long time for her 6th. But she convinced me during that drought that she's truly one of the tour's elite players. While I don't see another 5-win season on her horizon, I wouldn't be surprised if she won a couple of tournaments in 2010.
3. Angela Stanford (4/0): Like Pettersen, her wins have come largely in bunches. She won twice at the end of 2008, when it seemed like she was putting herself in contention every week, then won the opening event of 2009. And even though she's endured a little bit of a drought since then--due in no small part to taking time away from golf to support her mom during her cancer treatments--she improved all her key stats from 2008 to 2009. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see her to become the top American on tour in 2010.
4. Seon Hwa Lee (4/0): Although 2009 was a down year for her in wins and winnings, her key performance stats were right around her career norms, which had been good enough to make her a top 5 threat in her 1st 3 seasons on the LPGA. The 2006 Rookie of the Year is still averaging 1 win per season, so watch out for her in 2010. Accustomed to playing 30 events a year, she'll stay sharp when the LPGA's schedule goes dark, thanks to her dual membership on the LPGA and JLPGA. I expect her to win more often there than here, but you never know.

The Contenders

5. Sophie Gustafson (5/0): Even though she remains a mercurial player, she's made the top 30 on the LPGA money list 5 straight seasons and in 2009 topped the LET money list. In 4 of them, her scoring average was below 72 and last year's was the lowest in that period. She definitely has the talent to win any week she tees it up, so even though her inconsistency is her Achilles' heel, she's a blast to watch when she's in contention. Plus, she's shown her commitment to 2010 by committing to play the LET's ANZ Ladies Masters for the 1st time in 6 years (on which more later).
6. Hee-Won Han (6/0): She was averaging a win a year over her 1st 6 seasons and was a fixture on the top 10 of the money list for 4 of them, but since taking a maternity leave in 2007, enduring long separations from her son in 2008, and struggling a bit by her standards in 2009, she's something of a question mark for 2010. Her scoring average last season was the closest to going above 72 since her rookie season in 2001 and she had almost as much trouble finishing in the top 10. But the 2 times she did, she took home bronze medals. If she can improve her ballstriking, particularly her approach shots, in the coming season, she'll be a top 15 player again for sure. But I'm not sure how much time on the range her son will let her have.
7. Maria Hjorth (3/0): She came back from maternity leave and got stronger as the season progressed, culminating with a silver medal in Korea and ending up with the lowest scoring average of her 12-year career on the LPGA. If she maintains her excellent ballstriking and gets her putter going in 2010, this former English major could write a new chapter in a very solid career to date.
8. Catriona Matthew (3/1): She took even less time to come back from her maternity leave than Hjorth, winning the Women's British Open in her 2nd event back from giving birth. Let's see what she does with a full season in 2010. It'll be hard to top her Player of the Year award from the LET, but seeing as how she actually came close to striking the ball as well in 2009 as she did in 1999-2005, when she was a consistent top 30 player and sometime top 10 threat, it won't take very big improvements to keep her momentum going.
9. Candie Kung (4/0): If she could have hung in there on Sunday at the U.S. Women's Open, her 2009 would have been quite different, but as it was, it was a huge disappointment. She wasn't that terrible off the tee (she was actually fairly solid), but her approach shots were off and her putting was horrific. It was the 1st time in her career, barring an injury-shortened 2007, that she failed to break the 72 barrier in scoring average, she could only manage 2 top 10s, and she missed more cuts than at any other time in her 8-year LPGA career. So of course I think she's poised for a comeback in 2010.
10. Brittany Lincicome (3/1): As high as I am on everyone else's chances in 2010, I'm skeptical about Lincicome's. Yes, she had the shot of the year in 2009, denying Kristy McPherson her 1st LPGA win and Cristie Kerr her 2nd career major with her walkoff eagle at the KNC. But she's still never broken the 72 barrier in scoring average, never notched more than 5 top 10s in her 5-year LPGA career, and never hit more than 68% of her fairways. When you're as long as she is, a little lost accuracy isn't that big a deal, but Bam Bam hasn't even exceeded a 65% fairway rate since her rookie season.

Over at Mostly Harmless, I ranked the LPGA's active 2-time winners in order of likelihood of graduating from my list.  Here are the top 6 out of 20:

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ya Ni Tseng: It took her what felt like forever to get that 2nd LPGA win, but I doubt she'll have to wait that long for win #3. She's riding a 5-event top-10 run into 2010 and is averaging 1 win and $1.55M in winnings per season thus far.
2. Na Yeon Choi: She was 1 of the hottest golfers in the world at the end of last season and I don't see any reason for her not to carry that over into 2010. After all, she's never missed an LPGA cut or failed to join the Million Dollar Club in her 1st 2 seasons.
3. In-Kyung Kim: Her win at Dubai to end 2009 gives her dual LPGA-LET membership in 2010. If she plays her scheduling cards right, she could have the best season of anyone on this list.
4. Morgan Pressel: With her new swing grooved, short game sharp, and her confidence rising, she's poised for a breakout 2010.
5. Anna Nordqvist: Hound Dog claims her rookie season was the best by anyone in LPGA history who failed to win the Rookie of the Year award and ranks it 8th overall. I'm not going to argue with Hound Dog, but I'd like to see the LET's ROY make the top 10 more consistently before I'm moving her up this list. Like Kim, she may be able to take advantage of dual LPGA-LET membership in 2010.
6. Eun-Hee Ji: She gutted out a win at the U.S. Women's Open to join this list, then joined the list of players who succumbed to the Open jinx. So far she's handling it better than Inbee Park--and way better than Birdie Kim or Hilary Lunke--but she still is the coldest among the top-shelf 2-time winners on the LPGA.

Several players in the prime of their careers and a lot of relatively new moms round out the list.  Let's see if I'm right to favor the young!

Whereas coming up with ranked lists of the top players on the LPGA with no wins and 1 win was pretty cut-and-dried, some of the best active players on the LPGA have 2 wins and even those who have been struggling recently have pretty impressive records. It'll be very interesting to see who's the 1st to graduate from this list in 2010. Will it be 1 of the LPGA's Young Guns, someone from the New Blood generation, or one of the resurgent vets on tour?

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ya Ni Tseng: It took her what felt like forever to get that 2nd LPGA win, but I doubt she'll have to wait that long for win #3. She's riding a 5-event top-10 run into 2010 and is averaging 1 win and $1.55M in winnings per season thus far.
2. Na Yeon Choi: She was 1 of the hottest golfers in the world at the end of last season and I don't see any reason for her not to carry that over into 2010. After all, she's never missed an LPGA cut or failed to join the Million Dollar Club in her 1st 2 seasons.
3. In-Kyung Kim: Her win at Dubai to end 2009 gives her dual LPGA-LET membership in 2010. If she plays her scheduling cards right, she could have the best season of anyone on this list.
4. Morgan Pressel: With her new swing grooved, short game sharp, and her confidence rising, she's poised for a breakout 2010.
5. Anna Nordqvist: Hound Dog claims her rookie season was the best by anyone in LPGA history who failed to win the Rookie of the Year award and ranks it 8th overall. I'm not going to argue with Hound Dog, but I'd like to see the LET's ROY make the top 20 and top 10 more consistently before I'm moving her up this list. Like Kim, she may be able to take advantage of dual LPGA-LET membership in 2010.
6. Eun-Hee Ji: She gutted out a win at the U.S. Women's Open to join this list, then joined the list of players who succumbed to the Open jinx. So far she's handling it better than Inbee Park--and way better than Birdie Kim or Hilary Lunke--but she still is the coldest among the top-shelf 2-time winners on the LPGA.

The Contenders

7. Jeong Jang: She didn't bounce back from wrist surgery like I expected her to in 2009, but still maintained her lead in career winnings in the Seoul Sisters generation, staying just ahead of Hee-Won Han and maintaining her lead on Grace Park. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a comeback for her in 2010.
8. Karen Stupples: She came back from maternity leave faster and played better than I expected in 2009, so I'm looking for her to have a great 2010.
9. Christina Kim: She didn't have that breakout Solheim Cup year that I was looking for, but after working hard to get in better shape she's in good shape for 2010.

Quantum Leap Candidates

10. Ji Young Oh: Somehow I can't believe that this Junior Mint has as promising a future on the LPGA as the other Young Guns on this list, but she's proven me wrong before and she could well do it again in 2010.
11. Stacy Prammanasudh: 2009 was easily the worst season of her 7-year career. She dropped to #59 on my Best of the LPGA ranking, but I don't expect to see her that low at the end of 2010. The key for her is to get her driving accuracy back to where it was in 2004-2006, when she was hitting the fairway over 70% of the time. If she can do it, she can start attacking courses again. If you don't think this matters, check out the difference between Ai Miyazato's 2009 and her previous 2 seasons.
12. Meena Lee: After being a top 20 player in her 1st 2 seasons, averaging 1 win and 6 top 10s per year, her last 3 have been more of a struggle, as she's failed to crack the top 30 on the money list and is averaging only about 2 top 10s per year. Still, she made cuts and scored pretty close to her career norms in 2009, earning the #46 spot on my Best of the LPGA ranking, so there's no reason she can't come back in 2010, particularly if she keeps improving her approach shots, her Achilles heel the last 3 seasons. When you're as accurate off the tee as she is, she should be giving herself a lot more birdie chances.


For #13-#20, head on over to Mostly Harmless!

My 2010 preview series continues at Mostly Harmless with a look at the best on the LPGA with a single win.  Here are the players who I think have the best chance to make their 1st wins a little less lonely in 2010.  And, yes, once again I'm ranking my favorite player ahead of Michelle Wie.

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato: I've said it before and I'll say it again: she gave herself 13 chances to win on the LPGA and JLPGA in 2009, but could close the deal only at the Evian Masters (her 1st, obviously) and Sankyo Ladies (her 15th). So last season's #4-ranked LPGA player and #6-ranked JLPGA player is one of my frontrunners for LPGA Player of the Year in 2010. Yup, I'm expecting multiple wins from her on the LPGA this coming season. More on that a little later.

2. Michelle Wie: According to Hound Dog, she was part of the 2nd-greatest collective rookie season in LPGA history (behind Ai-sama's '06ers) and had an ROY-quality year--good enough for 12th on his list of all-time individual rookie performances on the LPGA. I'm hoping her Stanford professors let her golf in Asia next month, despite her 20-credit course load this term. Like everyone else, I'd love to see her play as full a schedule as possible in 2010. Even on a limited schedule in 2009, she ended up #11 on my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So it ahould be no surprise that she's another one of my frontrunners for POY this coming season.

For the rest of the contenders on the list, including Natalie Gulbis, check out the full article after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

My 2010 preview series continues at Mostly Harmless with a look at the best on the LPGA with a single win.  Here are the players who I think have the best chance to make their 1st wins a little less lonely in 2010:

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato: I've said it before and I'll say it again: she gave herself 13 chances to win on the LPGA and JLPGA in 2009, but could close the deal only at the Evian Masters (her 1st, obviously) and Sankyo Ladies (her 15th). So last season's #4-ranked LPGA player and #6-ranked JLPGA player is one of my frontrunners for LPGA Player of the Year in 2010. Yup, I'm expecting multiple wins from her on the LPGA this coming season. More on that a little later.
2. Michelle Wie: According to Hound Dog, she was part of the 2nd-greatest collective rookie season in LPGA history (behind Ai-sama's '06ers) and had an ROY-quality year--good enough for 12th on his list of all-time individual rookie performances on the LPGA. I'm hoping her Stanford professors let her golf in Asia next month, despite her 20-credit course load this term. Like everyone else, I'd love to see her play as full a schedule as possible in 2010. Even on a limited schedule in 2009, she ended up #11 on my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So it ahould be no surprise that she's another one of my frontrunners for POY this coming season.

The Contenders

3. Jee Young Lee: She's coming off her worst year in her 4 as an LPGA member following her non-member win in Korea in 2005, but she finally seemed to be on the comeback trail at its end, finishing 2009 with 3-straight top 20s and ending up #33 on my Best of the LPGA ranking. There's only 1 direction she can move in 2010. There's no way a player of her caliber has 2 bad seasons in a row.
4. Momoko Ueda: She won the 2007 Mizuno Classic as a JLPGA member and she did it with a bang--a final-round double eagle. Since then, she's brought her victory total on the JLPGA to 8, but has only cracked the top 10 as an LPGA member 5 times in 37 starts. So why do I rank her so high here? Well, she got 2 of them in the 2nd half of 2009, when the work she'd been putting into her game over the previous season and a half finally started to pay off. I'm looking for a huge 2010 from her.
5. Inbee Park: She seems to have slogged her way through her U.S. Women's Open jinx (see #25 and #26, below), having played well in Asia at the end of 2009 (T7 in Korea, T5 in Japan, T2 at JLPGA Q-School). If she plays her scheduling cards as well in 2010, she can build momentum on the JLPGA and improve on her #5 standing in her rookie class ('07ers) and #14 standing in her generation (Young Guns). I definitely expect her to improve on her #52 standing on my Best of the LPGA ranking.
6. Katherine Hull: In 2009, she showed that her hot streak at the end of 2008, jumpstarted by her win at the Canadian Women's Open, was a true quantum leap, making the top 30 on the money list and keeping her scoring average in the mid-71s for the 2nd-straight season. I'm looking for her to add to her total of 18 career LPGA top 10s in a big way in 2010, particularly if she augments her 7 ALPG wins at home Down Under in the next few weeks. She finished 2009 ranked #27 on my Best of the LPGA ranking and I don't see her going any lower in 2010.
7. Natalie Gulbis: Recurring back problems since her 2007 Evian Masters playoff victory over Jeong Jang have dropped her back where she was in her 1st 3 seasons on the LPGA--a player who makes her share of cuts but has trouble cracking the top 10. In fact, 24 of her top 10s and all 7 of her top 3s came between 2005 and 2007, when she was a regular on the top 20 of the money list. If she can stay healthy this coming season, there's no reason she can't get back to that level. Yes, that's a big "if," but she's coming off a season where she brought her scoring average back in the low 71s and--even though she had to shut things down when her back started acting up again in October and November--still ended up #30 in my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So I'm actually optimistic for her in 2010.
8. Nicole Castrale: Her 2 Solheim Cup appearances and playoff win at the Ginn Tribute in 2007 pushed me to give her the benefit of the doubt and rank her in this category, but she'll need to work very hard in 2010 to bounce back from a very disappointing 2009, when she missed 10 cuts, saw her scoring average approach 72.50, fell outside the top 50 on the money list, and only managed to get her 19th and 20th career top 10s on the LPGA. Still, I'd be very surprised to see her end up in 2010 as low as she ended up in last year's final Best of the LPGA ranking (#54).

As we head into the LPGA's 2010 season, I'm going to be breaking down the competition in various ways. Since a lot has changed since I last ranked the best on the LPGA without a win--Ai Miyazato, Na Yeon Choi, and Michelle Wie from the list got their 1st wins (not to mention Eunjung Yi and M.J. Hur from off it), for starters--I figured it was about time for an update. Since I plan to do similar lists for active players with 1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins, 4 wins, and 5 wins, I'm moving those with non-member wins off this ranking. For all these posts, I'll be using my Best of the Young Guns and Best of the LPGA rankings, as well as my ranking of the Class of 2009 and survey of the Class of 2010, to help me figure out who goes where here. So here are my top 11; for the full list of 27, head on over to Mostly Harmless:

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Song-Hee Kim: This Futures Tour sensation got off to a slow start on the LPGA, but now has 5 top 3s and 19 top 10s. Plus, she's an excellent putter, one of the best on tour, and has been improving her ballstriking. That's what I call due.

2. Brittany Lang: In 38 more starts than Kim, she has 1 more top 3 and 5 more top 10s, but her slump was longer than deeper than Kim's ever was. 2009 was her 1st full season when she was truly past it and she established herself as one of the tour's best ballstrikers in it. Let's see if she's able to improve her short game even more in 2010. All she needs to break through is 1 week when her putter gets hot.

3. Sun Young Yoo: This late-blooming '06er has the game to contend any given week, but hasn't done it as often as she will in 2010. She gets a good number of top 20s (31 in 104 LPGA starts) and has started to get comfortable with her name near the top of the leaderboard (3 top 3s and 13 top 10s at the end of 2009 are big improvements on where she stood at the end of 2008). So let's see if she can build on her momentum and reach escape velocity in 2010.

4. Hee Young Park: With 4 KLPGA wins to her name and the ability to go very low any time, she just has to have a week where she avoids that one big number to get her 1st LPGA win. 2 top 3s and 10 top 10s in her 53 starts as an LPGA member just scratches the surface of her potential.

5. Kristy McPherson: I don't know, I just have a great feeling about her prospects in 2010. She's a precision player who has room to improve even in that area; she's contended at majors; she's gone through Solheim Cup trial by fire; and she has 3 top 3s and 12 top 10s in her 70 LPGA starts. What's not to like?

6. Amy Yang: Yes, she didn't live up to my prediction that she'd end up the 10th-best player on the LPGA in 2009. But she improved on her rookie season, when she won 3 times on the LET, in every major statistical category. She's on the verge of really breaking through. Once she figures out how to go low outside Europe, she'll be unstoppable!

7. Vicky Hurst: I never though M.J. Hur would beat her to that 1st LPGA win, but there you have it. Still, 2009 was a pretty solid season for the tour's long-driving champion in her rookie season.

8. Stacy Lewis: 2009 was a big let-down for 2008's Q-School medalist, but still a pretty good year for a rookie. Look for her to tap into her considerable talents in 2010.

Have the Talent to Win Any Time, But....

9. Jane Park: She got off to a hot start in 2009 but then her back flared up and she was never the same golfer the rest of the season. Still, even with limited status her rookie season, she already has 3 top 3s and 6 top 10s in 57 starts as an LPGA member. And she felt well enough to caddy for Tiffany Joh at Q-School in December. So if she comes back rested and takes care of her back better in 2010, I expect a win out of her this season.

10. Shiho Oyama: 11 JLPGA wins in 9 seasons don't lie, but tendonitis in the elbows is hard to recover from. She had the wisdom to shut down her season midway through 2009 when it became clear playing through the pain was counterproductive. And she even stayed in the top 80 on the LPGA's money list, securing Category 1 status for 2010. Let's see if she comes back healthy.

11. Angela Park: Yes, her game has deserted her and she's dealing with issues bigger than golf. But even with all those problems she has 3 more top 3s and only 1 fewer top 10 than Kim. Without them, she'd be at the head of this ranking.