As the second half begins in earnest, the biggest surprise to date comes from The Land of Staying Classy - San Diego. The Padres, dismissed as a lost cause and a rebuilding team prior to the start of the season as analysts imagined Adrian Gonzalez in Fenway, currently hold a 2 game lead in the NL West with the 2^nd best record in the NL and the 4^th best record in all of baseball.

Their success is unquestionably tied to their pitching staff, as the staff leads all of MLB in ERA (3.27), FIP (3.74), WHIP (1.23...tied with the Rays) as their arms have led the way to the top of the NL West. Looking deeper into what San Diego's pitching staff is doing however, reveals that a good portion of their success is coming from the area of their team that is usually the most volatile component of any team, good or bad - middle relief.

It's no great revelation that relievers, and specifically middle relievers, find success of varying degrees from year to year as pitchers generally end up in the bullpen because of their inability to master enough pitches to remain starters or because they lack the talent to factor into rotational plans more than being organizational depth. Every year, middle relievers are cycled through the waiver wire and teams perpetually attempt to find lightning in a bottle by identifying the pitcher that's about to pitch well (perhaps above his head) for a short period of time to augment the bullpen.

Nearly universally, relievers are unpredictable creatures, prone to hot and cold stretches in their career like few others. Generally, a team is able to find a few reliable arms to (usually) overwork over the course of a season as they attempt to bridge that chasm between the end of a starter's outing and the entrance of the closer. Rare is the bullpen that boasts more than a couple of decent arms that aren't specifically designated for the 8^th and 9^th innings in games with a lead.

All of which makes what the San Diego bullpen is doing all the more remarkable. In the season of watching rate stats, what with Carlos Marmol chasing the highest K/9 number ever and CP Lee going after Bret Saberhagen's "record" of posting the best K/BB ratio in history, the Padres' bullpen is chasing history on their own...and they're doing it as a group.

Go ahead, start up the caveat, "Sure, but they play in Petco...if a pitcher can't succeed in Petco, they're not far removed from pulling on a Long Island Ducks' uniform..."

Perhaps that has some merit to it, but given the fact that the obvious aspects of what a pitcher can control outside of what park they're pitching in, namely strikeouts and walks, provide a harbinger for success or lack thereof, check these numbers out for the San Diego bullpen:

9.74 K/9 (highest in MLB)

2.62 BB/9 (2^nd lowest in MLB)

3.73K/BB (best in MLB)

Petco's not a factor in those issues at all and while those numbers are great for an individual pitcher (specifically with the whiffs, as only Weaver, Morrow, Kershaw, Gallardo, Liriano, and Lincecum have higher K/9 among starters this season), the fact that the San Diego bullpen is putting up those totals collectively is tremendous and, in fact, potentially historically significant.

What that means is that the following bullpens have posted K/BB over 3.00 since 1970:

Expos 1994 - 3.41

Twins 2006 - 3.28

Dodgers 2003 - 3.15

That's it, and if you see where the Padres' bullpen sits in their K/BB ratio, they have the potential to post the highest number (for a rate stat that is a good indicator of success, particularly for relievers) in the last 40 years...at least.

Collectively, the relievers have dubbed themselves as "The Pen-itentiary" and (lucky for them) they pitch better than they bestow nicknames upon themselves, if you look at the K/BB numbers for the current bullpen:

Eddie Mujica - 10.75 K/BB

Luke Gregerson - 5.89 K/BB

Joe Thatcher - 5.50 K/BB

Tim Stauffer - 5.00 K/BB

Mike Adams - 4.18 K/BB

Heath Bell - 3.33 K/BB

Ryan Webb - 2.86 K/BB

Notice where the closer and the pitcher who has logged the most 8^th inning appearances sit on the list?

Bell and Adams (42 8^th inning appearances) fall further down this list than one would assume and while the K/BB for both of them is more than respectable, it speaks to the idea that the sum is greater than its parts in the San Diego bullpen, particularly in middle relief.

Whether they can continue this pace into the second half remains to be seen, as the 275 1/3 IP logged by Padres' relievers represent the 6^th highest total in MLB. But it bears watching as we've known for some time that a bad bullpen can make a good team look bad. Now, perhaps we're seeing the answer to the question of what an historically excellent bullpen do can do as the Padres attempt to weather the storm in the NL West and make the playoffs, seemingly against all odds and thanks to their relievers.

The Human Target...

Public Enemy #1...

Use whatever clever name you want, but the trade of Muscle Branyan to Seattle reduced the number of players who universally draw the ire of a fanbase (deserved or undeserved) down to 29 for a couple of weeks.  That is, until the population of Cleveland finds another player upon whose shoulders they can heap their frustration and voice their disappointment.  Since he was signed late in the off-season by the Indians, Branyan was seen as an unnecessary veteran signing for an rebuilding organization with a history of such unnecessary veteran signings.  His mere presence on the roster made stomachs turn for some and each of his sweet strokes that ended simply creating more wind on the shores of Lake Erie became fodder for a fanbase that had grown tired of Branyan blocking the "Future 1B", Matt LaPorta, from playing more than intermittently in the early months of the 2010 season.

Of course, it bears worth mentioning that Branyan hit well in his brief time with the Tribe, posting the 3^rd highest OPS on the team, even as he became a lightning rod for criticism as the poster boy for all that was wrong with the Indians' manner of bringing in veterans to play in front of prospects.  Despite the fact that Branyan remains 3^rd in WAR for Indians' hitters at 1.2 (and he'd be second if Carlos Santana wasn't blistering MLB pitchers at a Pujolsian pace in his first few week), his trade back to the Emerald City (for what looks like organizational fodder) was welcomed with open arms in Cleveland.

All of that begs the obvious question - what did Russell Branyan do to deserve such contempt?

Sure, his defense was abysmal at 1B and he looked like he'd rather be seeing his proctologist...but on a team that was largely bereft of power, he posted the highest SLG among regulars (at .491) and hit 10 HR in 52 games with the team.  For that performance, he was largely ridiculed and his departure garnered the usual "thank goodness that he's gone" rhetoric.

What's most interesting about the public opinion on Branyan in 2010 in Cleveland is that it brings to mind the idea that every team has a "Whipping Boy" for writers and fans alike to pile on as a sub-replacement level player or as a poster child for organizational flaws.

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Now that the 2010 MLB Draft has come and gone and every fan has read up on their team's some 40 to 50 draft picks, with dreams of sugar plums dancing in their heads, perhaps it's time to provide a quick reminder of what a truly inexact science the MLB Draft is and, more importantly, how long the development of most of these players takes in terms of legitimately contributing at the MLB level.  Obviously, this is not breaking any new ground despite the immediate MLB impact being felt in the nation's capital and in Cincinnati, where 2009 draftees are making significant contributions.

That being said, the success of Strasburg, Leake, and Storen ultimately represent exceptions to the rule that the seeds sown in a particular draft take between four and eight years to truly bear fruit at the MLB level.  If it does take that long for a particular draft to truly be evaluated, what can we glean from the draft that would be on the short end of that four to eight year timeframe - the 2006 Draft?

While most people would look at how many 1^st Round Picks have ascended to the Majors and see how those 30 players are performing, a better gauge, in terms of standing at the time of the draft, might be to look at the top 30 signing bonuses from the 2006 Draft to see how those players have adapted to life as a professional player.

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In this brave new world of "service clock management", "Super-2 status", and the rest of us simply living in Stephen Strasburg's world, the beginning of June has evolved into a time of great anticipation among many fans of MLB.  With the current arbitration system in place, many teams hold their top prospects back through the first two months of what would be their rookie season with an eye towards more player control (at a lower price tag) three to six years down the road.

Regardless, now that the floating date that concerned teams so much (that Super-2 date) has passed, many of the top prospects will find their way to MLB and, I'm not sure if you've heard this or not, it will include a certain RHP, who will make his debut in our nation's capital on June 8^th.

While Cy Strasburg's debut figures to consume most of the ink in the next two weeks, two other players who fall under that same "Super-2" consideration figure to join teams very much in need of a boost.  With the calendar now into June, Buster Posey has already joined the Giants' lineup and Carlos Santana should be joining the Indians' lineup in short order as both have the potential to inject some pop into two to of the worst offenses in MLB.

Posey has burst onto the scene, going 6 for 12 with 2 doubles in his first 3 games and while excitement over him may be reaching a fevered pitch (while all of Cleveland wonders why Carlos Santana remains down I-71 in Columbus), perhaps now would be a good time to review the cautionary tale of Matt Wieters and temper some of this enthusiasm while gaining some perspective on placing the label of "Savior" onto the shoulders of these young players.

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Lost in the demoralizing start in Seattle that could result in the Mariners going into the Trading Season as "sellers" after spending all Winter as "buyers" is the fact that one of their pick-ups in the off-season is having a historic, if albeit late, start to his season.  After spending the first couple of weeks on the DL, Clifton Phifer Lee has arrived in Seattle and has, through 36 2/3 IP, allowed 1 walk while striking out 32 hitters.

Let's look at that again: 36 2/3 IP, 1 BB, 32 K

For some perspective on this, realize that the highest K/BB ratio in the expansion era (since 1961) is Bret Saberhagen's 11.0 in 1994 as a member of the Mets and Ben Sheets' 2006 season in Milwaukee (10.55 K.BB in only 106 IP) is the only other instance of a pitcher posting a K/BB over 10.  Yet here Lee sits, with 36 2/3 innings under his belt having given up only one free pass.

He's faced 151 hitters to date, giving him an absurd 0.6% BB/PA and an equally absurd 21.2% K/PA rate.  To the 151 hitters he's faced, he's thrown 154 balls and 393 strikes, meaning that he averages 2.60 strikes and 1.02 balls per hitter faced.  Additionally, he has yet to let up a HR, a distinction that he shares with the Dodgers' John Ely among starters who have thrown more than 30 innings this year, meaning that Lee is on a historic pace to limit walks (and pitches), balance those walks against strikeouts, and keep balls struck within the playing field.

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While the summer (and more specifically, the end of July) is often full of summer rentals around MLB, a new trend seems to be emerging around the movement of players that are under contract for longer than just 2 more months.  That is, players who aren't going to be Free Agents for more than a full season have become the newest currency in the MLB marketplace, leading to trades that can't even be called summer rental...call them summer timeshares, given that some of these players change hands a couple of times from the time of their first trade to when they actually hit Free Agency.

The most recent application of this phenomenon could come on the western shores of Lake Michigan as the idea that Prince Fielder may be headed to the trade block with a year and a half left on his contract before hitting FA was addressed recently in a piece from Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who asserts that it may be time to "Break up the Brewers":

With 124 games to play, assuming that they'll need to win 92 games to give themselves a good chance of winning the NL Central or the Wild Card, they would have to play .621 baseball the rest of the way to make that happen.
--snip--
Realistically, the playoff chances for the Brewers appear slim for 2010, and with that reality staring them in the face, it's probably time for them to put Prince Fielder on the trading block.
--snip--
It's not the outcome that Milwaukee had in mind when they put this roster together, and they do have enough talent to right the ship and get back to a winning record, but they are far enough back in the NL Central where its getting to be time to change directions. Six weeks of bad baseball can sink a season, and in the case of the Brewers, it probably has.

Before attempting to prevent Brewers' fans from heading straight to the Third Ward or SummerFest grounds to drown their collective sorrows (and Milwaukeeans are good at this, particularly in the summer, even when not drowning sorrows), let's take a look at this seemingly new approach to rebuilding a team or re-stocking a farm system in short order.  To my knowledge, the precedent was set with Texas and Mark Teixiera, as the Rangers (on their way to a 75-87 record in 2007) dealt their slugging 1B to Atlanta for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones.  In hindsight, the trade looks like an absolute haul and justifies the Rangers' rationale for trading Teixiera as the Rangers now sit atop the AL West with Andrus as their 21-year-old wunderkind at SS, Feliz as their 22-year-old flamethrowing closer, and with the 24-year-old Harrison working his way into the rotation while Saltalamacchia attempts to...well, attempts to overcome a mental block that has impeded his production.

However, that deal (as good as it looks today) didn't start to bear fruit for a solid 2 years as the Rangers scuffled through the AL West, waiting for the seeds sewn in the deal to blossom, which is certainly something for the Brewers to consider in their evaluation of whether to move Fielder this season...but we'll get to that.

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Sky's note: Please welcome Paul Cousineau to the BtB crew.  You can find his thoughts on all things Indians at The Diatribe.

Being from Cleveland, and thus being cursed with that proclivity to apparently seek out suffering in the sports teams that call my fair city home, I subjected myself to the revelry that took place last Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium as the Indians took on the Royals in a battle pitting the two most flawed teams in the most flawed division in baseball.

While attempting to generate some excitement at the prospect of seeing Mike Redmond and Jason Kendall call a MLB game against each other, a startling fact came to light – the number of players in the lineup for both teams that were younger than 27 was two.  Two players, Billy Butler (24) and Asdrubal Cabrera (also 24), were the only participants in the starting lineups of a game pitting two teams that were a combined 17 games under .500 at the time with the season not even into mid-May, a year after finishing with identical 65-97 records at the bottom of the Central.

Since neither team is able to rest on the laurels of the accomplishments of the veterans in the game (sure Sizemore and Choo are only 27 and well…um…I guess David DeJesus is 30) to justify the inclusion of many of the veterans, the fact that the cumulative lineups "featured" as many players over the age of 30 as they did for players under the age of 30 is nothing short of mystifying.

While the game was a bit of a yawner (unsurprisingly and not helped by two rain delays), it brought under the hot glare of attention this advanced state of limbo that has afflicted a number of teams in MLB, unsure whether to go full bore into an attempt at "rebuilding/reloading/whatever" mode, or whether to lean on some veteran presence in the lineup (in Wednesday’s, steaming heaps of "veteran presence") in an attempt to win games in the here and now, with less of an eye towards the future.

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I just wanted to let everyone know that with Tony Lastoria on "vacation" (which is somewhere around Kinston, I think), our beloved Jay will be my co-host for the Smoke Signals radio show tonight from 9:30 to 10:30.  You can either listen live or catch on with the podcast at a later time here.

Jay and I will hit on the all the highs and all the lows of the last week and should hear from Tony Lastoria, who plans on calling in with his thoughts on the latest moves by the Tribe as well as what he's hearing.  Additionally, a cameo by Anthony Castrovince from indians.com is expected to check in with his thoughts on the moves that have been made and the moves that could happen.

EDIT - this should probably be a FanShot, so if someone who knows how wants to move it there, have at it.

Not sure if anyone remembers mikehudson, who posted quite frequently here about a year and a half back, but this was in today's PD.
Fascinating article, accompanied by pictures, that I found extremely interesting.  
It's always pleasantly surprising to put a face and a story to a username.

The Tribe just outrighted Jake Dittler and Jason Stanford off of the 40-man.  The moves essentially mean that the current 40-man roster stands at 38.

Interesting on Dittler, as he won't turn 24 until late November and spent the full season at Buffalo.  I believe this means that he has to clear through waivers to be added back into the orgaization.

There's the first domino to fall:

http://www.cleveland.com/weblogs/pdsports/index.ssf?/mtlogs/cleve_pdsports/archives/2006_07.html#163 304

They don't list the name of the prospect, but it should be a decent one.  All the story says is that the prospect will not impact the team in 2006.
I would assume that Langerhans and/or Betemit would be named.

News at 11...

With Casey Blake coming off of the DL after the AS Break, where does Gutierrez fit in?

Does Michaels become the 4th OF, with Blake in LF, Gutz in RF, Hollandsworth elsewhere?

Does Gutz get sent back down?

Does Gutz become the 4th OF, with Dutch hitting road?

Does Blake play 3B (or 2B, with Belliard moving to 3B) - "Welcome back, Casey...go take some grounders"?

Personally, I think that the first option is the most beneficial to the team as the Tribe knows what it has in Blake and Michaels, but needs to find out if Gutz is a viable MLer (and possibly a leadoff option for 2007).

The interesting factor in the equation is that Blake and Michaels have always seemed to be "Wedge guys" - hard-nosed grinders.  How much that comes into play will be the one to watch, as Gutz needs to be more of a known quantity by year's end.

For you Craig Wilson fans out there, he may be headed to Fenway:
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/sports//s_434540.html

It could all just be conjecture and rumor, but the trade seems to make sense for both parties involved.  The Red Sox would be rid of Clement and have some insurance at 3B and the Pirates would upgrade their staff while not doing too much damage to the projected lineup.

What players on the 40 man (and not assumed to have a guaranteed spot on the 25 man) are out of options?

Phillips is generally known to be out of options (as was Tallet), but where do Jason Davis, Jason Stanford, Jason Dubois, and the rest of the 2006 Bisons fall?

How many options remain for players with options?

Anybody have a handle on this?

A quick question and challenge to those able to easily navigate their way through MLB stats:

The insertion of Peralta into the 3 spot is marked as the time that the offense really clicked; while it wasn't until Hafner returned from Buerhle's beaning that the lineup took the shape that most felt was most productive. That lineup, which is what we're currently looking at for 2006 (minus Perez), obviously being:
Sizemore
Crisp
Peralta
Hafner
Martinez
Belliard
Broussard
Blake
Boone

The date of Hafner's return was August 4th, when the Tribe was 57-51.  After that date (a loss, which is remembered for Wickman's meltdown in the 9th against the NYY), the Tribe went 36-18.  So the last 54 games (or 1/3) of the season was the only time that the lineup was truly in its present state.

With all of that being said, how did the Indians' offense compare, over those 54 games, with the rest of the league?  
Where would it rank against the AL, and all of the ML?

Can you factor that production out over 162 games (as the team won at a .666 clip over the final 1/3 of the season, including the late-season collapse) to predict 2006 offensive production if no changes were made to the lineup?