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The Ghost of Todd Burns
Mar 15, 2008 May 31, 2012 17 10103
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Offseason Moves and the 2012 Roster.
I don't know if anyone noticed this, but the Cardinals are suddenly loaded with free agents.
Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Chris Carpenter, Edwin Jackson, Rafael Furcal, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson, Nick Punto, and Gerald Laird are all free agents after the season. Additionally, Ryan Theriot is likely to be non-tendered. Skip Schumaker and Kyle McClellan are both non-tender/trade candidates. Thats about half the team.
Obviously, the big offseason priority will be to re-sign Albert Pujols. I think the Cardinals are going to somehow figure this out. I was originally concerned that teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, or Mets would make a serious run, but they don't seem to be in a position to make that kind of move right now.
The next major decisions will be centered around Chris Carpenter and Lance Berkman. I just don't see how the Cardinals can even consider picking up Carp's $15 million dollar option for his age 37 season. I also think it would be a bad idea to renegotiate his deal to cover not just his age 37 season, but also his age 38 season at over $10 million per season. I say offer him arbitration and let him walk. I don't think he'd accept as this will be his last chance to get a multi-year deal. Also, he's a Type A free agent and we'll collect 2 high draft picks for him signing with someone else. I think Lance Berkman would be a much more sound investment. He's shown that he still has a ton left in the tank (holy crap did you see him flying around the bases yesterday!). I would try to lock up Berkman to a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd. Maybe something like 2 years/$22 million plus an $8 million option for his 3rd year. I know that seems kinda low considering the season he's put up, but these would be his age 36-38 seasons. He seems to like it here and we know he doesn't want to go to the American League. I think the only other place he'd want to go is Houston - and that's not gonna happen.
Next on the list is Edwin Jackson. I think everyone agrees that he's not the top-flight starting pitcher that we were hoping for in a Colby deal. I think he's a better pitcher than he gets credit for, but at the same time I wouldn't want to get involved in a massive multi-year deal for him. I think those kind of deals for slightly above average pitchers are really the types of deals teams should avoid. Let someone else make this move and we'll take the draft pick.
Rafael Furcal has a $12 milloin option for next season. No thanks. However, if we can spin that into a 2 year deal at around $13 million, I would jump on that. If this magnificent bastard could just stay healthy, he'd be worth a lot more than that. Also, it'd be nice to have a true leadoff hitter and someone who could be relied on at short, both offensively and defensively (its been a while). A 2 year deal would cover his age 34 and 35 seasons, so its a little risky, but I'd still do it.
Octavio Dotel is old and a type B free agent. Draft pick please. Its hard to imagine Corey Patterson, Nick Punto, or Gerald Laird coming back for any reason. Corey Patterson makes everyone want to puke. Nick Punto would be nice if healthy, but he's also getting old - he'll be 34 at the start of next season. Gerald Laird is an awesome dude, but the Cards seem to like Tony Cruz, so I can see them letting Laird go and paying Tony half the price.
Ryan Theriot - It didn't work. Everyone knows this. I'd be surprised if he can make it until the end of the season. If he does, he will be an absolute lock to be non-tendered.
Skip Schumaker already makes $2.4 million. There's not a reason in the world to keep him when Descalso is a similar player offensively and way better defensively for around league minimum. I think 2B will be Dirty Dan's job to lose next season.
Kyle McClellan already makes $1.375 million and I'd imagine he's in line for a signifcant boost through arbitration. I think he'd surely get between 3 and 4 million through the arbitration process and even if the Cards signed him to a 2 year deal it would be for no less than $2.5 million per season. Now, thats not a bad price for a quality reliever - especially one that can handle lefties. Honestly, I think he'll be back, its just that I wouldn't do it at anything over the $2.5 million mark per season. I don't think he'll be non-tendered, but I can certainly see the Cards making a trade involving him.
Jake Westbrook - I'd rather the team pay him $4 million next season to not pitch for us than $8 million to pitch for us. No way anyone will take on the full salary but at $4 million per season teams should be interested. Hell we might even be able to pull a decent little player out of the deal.
The team has some very interesting players right now in the minors that can make a big play for roster positions next spring. Matt Carpenter apparently didn't impress Tony and company in his measly 15 at bats that he got this season, but he's too old and too good to keep in the minors any longer. Adron Chambers is better than Corey Patterson right now. Tyler Greene is not necessarily done with the organization. I can see him getting one last chance next season as the backup MIF.
Shelby Miller - Its possbile that I'm in the minority on this, but I'm all for letting him finish the year at AAA and giving him an opportunity to open the season with the big club. If he doesn't make it we can fall back to Mark Rzeps..er...Scrabble, until Shelby is ready.
Lance Lynn has been filthy in the bullpen this year. I'd be very comfortable with him in the rotation next season.
Adam Wainwright will be back in the rotation next season, in effect, taking Carpenter's spot. I'm going to be optimisitic and say Eduardo Sanchez will also be back next season.
So the team should look a little like this:
1B - Albert Pujols - $28,000,000
2B - Dan Descalso - close to league minimum
SS - Rafael Furcal - $6,500,000
3B - David Freese - less than a million
C - Yadier Molina - $7,000,000
LF - Matt Holliday - $17,000,000
CF - Jon Jay - close to league minimum
RF - Lance Berkman - $11,000,000
Bench - Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Adron Chambers, Tony Cruz, Tyler Greene - all around league minimum - roughly $2.1 million all together
SP - Adam Wainwright - $9,000,000
SP - Jaime Garcia - $3,250,000
SP - Kyle Lohse - $11,875,000
SP - Lance Lynn - league minimum
SP - Shelby Miller - league minimum
RP - Kyle McClellan - $2,500,000
RP - Jason Motte - around a million
RP - Mitchell Boggs - less than a million
RP - Fernando Salas - close to league minimum
RP - Eduardo Sanchez - league minimum
RP - Mark Rzep Scrabble - less than a million
RP - new lefty reliever - around a million
Emergency call-up possibilities include: Matt Adams, Zack Cox, Bryan Anderson, Andrew Brown, Peter Kozma, Ryan Jackson, Aaron Luna, Nick Additon, Adam Ottavino, Jess Todd, Brian Broderick, John Gast, Adam Reifer, Maikel Cleto, Sam Freeman, and Brandon Dickson,
Dead Money: Jake Westbrook ($4,000,000), Chris Carpenter ($1,000,000 buyout), Octavio Dotel ($750,000 buyout - is Toronto paying? Not sure so I'll count it)
I'd imagine David Freese, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and Scrabble are all going to get decent raises of a few hundred thousand each, but I don't know how this really works, so we'll have to work with estimates - it won't make the overall total too far off. By my count...it puts the overall payroll at right about $110,000,000. That probably leaves very little wiggle room. It's certainly possible that Furcal doesn't come back and we go cheap at SS - again! - and add some cheap vet bats to the bench also. Also, I realize the likelihood of Lynn and Miller both in the rotation is pretty much slim and none, but I'd try it. Lynn has proven he's a big league pitcher and Miller could be a ROY candidate.
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2009-2010 Offseason with 20/20 hindsight!
I was just sitting here thinking about the Cardinals 3rd base problems and it made me think of Adrian Beltre. Then I thought of how awesome the lineup would look with him in it...and that kind of snowballed into me thinking about Brad Penny's contract....and so on...so I decided to to come up with a best-case scenario for the Cards going into the 2010 season.
So let's assume for a moment that all salary figures and stats would be exactly the same if the players were with the Cardinals.
1. Sign Adrian Beltre (1 year $10 million) - .336/.372/.570 20 HR's 75 RBI. Upset over his recent arrest for DWI the Cardinals trade David Freese for some minor leaguers. Salary increase of $9.6 million.
2. Sign Kelly Johnson (1 year $2.3 million) - .286/.374/.498 17 Hr's 52 RBI. Hesitant to give Schumaker a multi-year contract extension (2 years/$4.7 million - 2010 -$2M, 2011 - 2.7M), the Cardinals decide to trade Skip for some minor league talent. Salary increase of .3 million for this season.
3. Sign Brett Myers (1 year $5 million) - 3.21 ERA, 157 innings, 119 K's/47 BB's, 1.22 WHIP. A bit put off by Brad Penny's contract requests (1 year/$7.5 million + 1.5 million in performance bonuses), the Cards take a gamble on Myers. Salary decrease of $4 million with the assumption the Cards were prepared to pay $9 million for Penny.
4. Sign Will Ohman (1 year 1.35 million) instead of re-signing Trever Miller (2 years/$4 million). Really this is only marginal improvement, but its saves a few bucks and Ohman is 4 years younger than Miller. Salary decrease of $.65 million
5. Sign J.J. Putz (1 year $3.1 million) - 1.72 ERA, .82 WHIP, 46 K's/8 BB's. Decline Ryan Franklin's option and don't re-sign him (2 years $6.5 million) - 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K's/6 BB's. Call me crazy, but I like a guy who can get some strikeouts in the 9th inning. Salary decrease of $.15 million.
6. Don't sign Felipe Lopez (1 year $1 million) or Jason LaRue (1 year $950,000). The Cards would not have needed Lopez if they had more certainty at 3rd base. Save some money and play T. Greene as the 3rd middle infielder. As for LaRue, this is just purely a cost-cutting move. They can get similar production from someone else (Anderson, Pagnozzi) at league minimum. Salary decrease of $1.15 million.
Also lets assume all other roster moves play out similarly: Mather struggles, Cards sign Winn. Lohse hits DL - cards use Hawksworth and later sign Suppan. Jay breaks out - Cards trade Ludwick for Westbrook. Cards sign Miles...etc.
New Lineup: Jay, Johnson, Pujols, Holliday, Beltre, Rasmus, Molina, Ryan
New Rotation: Wainwright, Carpenter, Myers, Westbrook, Garcia
Bench: Craig, Winn, Miles, Anderson/Pags, Greene
New Bullpen: Ohman, Reyes, Boggs, Motte, McClellan, Hawksworth/Salas, CL- Putz
Total salary difference comes out to be around $4 million higher for this season.
Of course, these moves would've made less sense in the offseason.
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stltoday.com's pick the 25 man roster contest
Prizes appear to be from the saint louis science center. We all know its about the glory though.
08-09 Homers and RBI's for outfielders
Look, I know these aren't the "be all, end all" of stats anymore, but they are still the MOST watched stats and easiest to look up and compare.
I don't really have much to say about this, but I thought these lists were quite interesting. These stats cover the last 2 seasons for ML outfielders.
RBI's
1. Jason Bay 220
Ryan Braun 220
3. Ryan Ludwick 210
4. Adam Dunn 205
5. Bobby Abreu 203
Raul Ibanez 203
7. Carlos Lee 202
8. Matt Holliday 197
9. Nick Markakis 188
10. Josh Hamilton 184
Manny Ramirez 184
12. Andre Either 183
13. Jermaine Dye 177
Matt Kemp 177
15. Brad Hawpe 171
16. Tori Hunter 168
17. Jayson Werth 166
18. Nate McClouth 164
19. Cody Ross 163
20. Carlos Beltran 160
Home Runs
1. Adam Dunn 78
2. Ryan Braun 69
3. Jason Bay 67
4. Jermaine Dye 61
5. Ryan Ludwick 59
6. Raul Ibanez 57
8. Manny Ramirez 56
9. Carlos Lee 54
10. Nick Swisher 53
11. Curtis Granderson 52
12. Andre Ethier 51
14. Hunter Pence 50
Jayson Werth 50
Costly omissions from these lists*:
1. Andruw Jones - $36.7 Million, current contract: 1 year/500K
2. Vlad Guerrero - $29.5 Million, current contract: 1 year/6.5 Million
3. Alfonso Soriano - $29 Million, current contract: 5 years/90 Million remain
4. J.D. Drew - $28 Million, current contract: 2 years/ 28 Million remain
5. Kosuke Fukudome - $21.5 Million, 2 years/26.5 Million remain
6. Vernon Wells - $19 Million, 5 years/107 Million remain
7. Milton Bradley - $14 Million, 2 years/21 Million remain
8. Alex Rios - 10.135 Million, 5 years/59.7 Million remain
* salaries incude signing bonuses and 08 and 09 salary, courtesy of Cots
Apologies for the terrible formatting - have to go to work and don't have time to fix it.
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Casey Mulligan doing awesome "Thriller" routine during rain delay!
Heisted from futureredbirds.net - thanks AZ. This is hilarious.
almost 3 years ago
The Ghost of Todd Burns
4 comments
6 recs
Former Cardinal Report - May
I'm doing this a little early this month because I'm bored and I'll probably be pretty busy the next few days. Stats are updated through about 10 PM last night. Again, if I've forgotton anyone or if you know of the whereabouts of other former Cardinals let me know and I can include them next time.
Top Hitters: PA AVG. OPS HR RBI
Adam Kennedy (OAK) 75 .388 1.020 2 13
Russell Branyan (SEA) 170 .311 1.006 11 23
Felipe Lopez (ARZ) 183 .323 .865 4 10
J.D. Drew (BOS) 170 .252 .840 6 21
Scott Rolen (TOR) 178 .297 .811 3 16
Fernando Tatis (NYM) 88 .275 .758 2 10
Coco Crisp (KC) 191 .233 .743 3 14
Placido Polanco (DET) 190 .263 .672 1 21
Edgar Renteria (SF) 164 .248 .671 2 22
Jack Wilson (PIT) 108 .252 .653 1 16
David Eckstein (SD) 178 .239 .633 0 14
Cesar Izturis (BAL) 140 .256 .624 1 13
Aaron Miles (CHC) 104 .204 .515 0 4
Ronnie Belliard (WAS) 72 .164 .476 1 4
Miguel Cairo (PHI) 17 .118 .235 0 0
Minor Leagues: PA AVG. OPS HR RBI
Hector Luna (LAD) 154 .369 1.086 9 36
Mike McCoy (COL) 160 .375 .981 1 19
Chris Richard (TB) 158 .275 .955 11 36
Eliezer Alfonzo (SD) 103 .323 .939 7 19
John Rodriguez (NYY) 152 .297 .935 9 33
Miguel Cairo (PHI) 29 .357 .915 1 5
Terry Evans (LAA) 184 .292 .874 10 28
Dan Nelson (WAS) 102 .271 .857 2 7
Adam Kennedy (TB) 92 .280 .805 3 9
Abraham Nunez (ARZ) 49 .302 .760 0 6
Cody Haerther (TOR) 81 .280 .729 1 6
Pablo Ozuna (PHI) 171 .290 .726 0 14
John Gall (HOU) 185 .244 .702 5 19
Daric Barton (OAK) 185 .215 .676 2 24
So Taguchi (CHC) 32 .259 .671 0 4
Sean Danielson (BOS) 125 .239 .623 1 13
Brian Barton (ATL) 140 .211 .598 2 11
Reid Gorecki (ATL) 124 198 .550 1 9
Independent League: PA AVG. OPS HR RBI
Abraham Nunez 60 .314 .822 0 6
Alberto Castillo 63 .309 .791 1 9
Preston Wilson 81 .293 .773 2 15
Top Starters: ERA WHIP IP K:BB OPS Against
Dan Haren (ARZ) 2.57 .90 63.0 63:9 .580
Jason Marquis (COL) 4.45 1.29 60.2 27:9 .679
Anthony Reyes (CLE) 6.57 1.64 38.1 22:23 .826
Sidney Ponson (KC) 6.49 1.63 43.0 24:16 .827
Braden Looper (MIL) 4.47 1.45 50.1 28:17 .841
Jeff Suppan (MIL) 5.23 1.58 53.1 27:24 .905
Jamie Moyer (PHI) 7.42 1.77 47.1 26:16 1.001
Minor Leagues: ERA WHIP IP K:BB
Kip Wells (WAS) 2.45 1.00 11.0 11:2
Jorge Sosa (WAS) 6.00 1.00 6.0 7:0
Chris Lambert (DET) 6.14 1.53 48.1 42:19
Top Relievers: ERA WHIP IP K:BB OPS Against
Ron Villone (WAS) 0.00 .94 11.2 3:5 .444
Kiko Calero (FLA) 2.35 1.04 23.0 30:12 .461
Luke Gregerson (SD) 3.54 1.29 28.0 30:13 .610
Jason Isringhausen (TB) 3.60 1.80 5.0 2:5 .623
Randy Flores (COL) 0.00 1.00 5.0 5:0 .625
Darren Oliver (LAA) 2.08 1.20 21.2 15:5 .669
Jamey Wright (KC) 3.86 1.46 23.1 17:7 .701
Julian Tavarez (WAS) 5.68 1.58 19.0 18:14 .717
Luis Perdomo (SD) 4.70 1.30 15.1 7:7 .739
Jeff Weaver (LAD) 3.63 1.48 22.1 14:10 .742
Kip Wells (WAS) 6.35 1.54 22.2 16:15 .743
Russ Springer (OAK) 5.89 1.85 18.1 20:7 .901
Brett Tomko (NYY) 4.15 1.62 4.1 0:2 .952
Troy Percival (TB) 6.35 1.68 11.1 7:5 .972
Mike Lincoln (CIN) 9.56 2.19 16.0 6:12 1.151
Minor Leagues: ERA WHIP IP K:BB
Ron Villone (WAS) 2.35 .78 7.2 5:2
Brett Tomko (NYY) 0.64 .86 14.0 17:4
Jeff Weaver (LAD) 3.55 1.03 12.2 12:2
Chris Narveson (MIL) 4.76 1.27 28.1 32:10
Randy Flores (COL) 5.51 1.29 16.1 13:5
Jason Isringhausen (TB) 4.06 1.36 11.0 3:6
Carmen Cali (LAD) 4.24 1.47 17.0 19:6
Tyler Johnson (SEA) 4.50 1.50 2.0 0:0
Ben Julanel (COL) 6.35 1.59 17.0 14:9
Kelvin Jimenez (CWS) 5.52 1.74 29.1 16:3
Independent League ERA WHIP IP K:BB
Ron Flores 2.77 .93 13.0 9:4
Esteban Yan 3.60 1.13 30.0 22:8
Troy Cate 4.11 1.26 30.2 19:8
Andy Cavazos 8.38 2.39 8.2 6:12
Also, Stu Pomeranz was spotted on the inactive list for the New Jersey Jackals of the Can-Am League.....I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that he's injured.
Canseco's MMA Fight
I don't even know what to say about this
Adam Loewen....You're No Rick Ankiel
21 K's in 45 AB's.....the conversion is not going well. On May 8th he went 0 for 5 with 5 k's
Former Cardinal Report - April
Does anybody else keep close tabs on former Cardinals? I thought it be neat to roll all the stats into one report. If you guys like this kind of stuff I can try to do an update each month.
Top Hitters: PA AVG. OPS HR RBI
Fernando Tatis 30 .370 1.068 1 2
Russell Branyan 63 .333 1.029 4 10
Felipe Lopez 94 .318 .901 3 6
J.D. Drew 75 .234 .847 3 10
Coco Crisp 102 .244 .840 2 9
Scott Rolen 92 .318 .803 2 9
David Eckstein 86 .299 .791 0 6
Edgar Renteria 77 .275 .786 2 11
Placido Polanco 94 .256 .681 0 15
Jack Wilson 51 .255 .633 0 7
Cesar Izturis 72 .232 .593 1 8
Aaron Miles 51 .167 .404 0 2
Ronnie Belliard 25 .167 .367 0 1
Miguel Cairo 8 .000 .000 0 0
Minor Leagues: PA AVG. OPS HR RBI
Hector Luna 63 .327 1.015 3 12
John Rodriguez 78 .314 .957 4 11
Eliezer Alfonzo 49 .326 .875 2 6
Mike McCoy 59 .321 .843 1 2
Cody Haerther 10 .300 .800 0 0
John Gall 85 .289 .795 2 12
Adam Kennedy 72 .238 .739 3 8
Chris Richard 71 .190 .688 3 10
So Taguchi 33 .259 .671 0 4
Terry Evans 72 .232 .670 3 10
Pablo Ozuna 85 .244 .592 0 9
Sean Danielson 50 .208 .522 0 5
Reid Gorecki 73 .186 .518 1 8
Brian Barton 69 .194 .497 0 3
Daric Barton 77 .149 .483 0 12
Top Starters: ERA WHIP K:BB OPS Against
Dan Haren 1.54 .74 36:5 .463
Jason Marquis 4.10 1.37 13:11 .705
Braden Looper 2.45 1.50 16:11 .731
Jamie Moyer 5.09 1.57 15:6 .865
Sidney Ponson 7.16 1.66 18:11 .867
Jeff Suppan 5.88 1.46 15:12 .877
Anthony Reyes 7.58 1.68 9:11 .899
Minor Leagues: ERA WHIP K:BB
Chris Lambert 4.76 1.28 18:8
Top Relievers: ERA IP WHIP OPS AGAINST
Kiko Calero 2.61 10.1 .87 .415
Kip Wells 1.42 6.1 1.42 .416
Russ Springer 1.74 10.1 1.16 .568
Jamey Wright 2.08 13.0 .85 .581
Jeff Weaver 0.00 4.0 1.25 .646
Darren Oliver 2.35 7.2 1.30 .668
Julian Tavarez 4.50 10.0 1.30 .713
Luke Gregerson 4.73 13.1 1.50 .736
Luis Perdomo 5.40 8.1 1.32 .768
Troy Percival 3.38 5.1 1.88 .900
Mike Lincoln 15.12 8.1 2.88 1.234
Minor Leagues: ERA IP WHIP
Ron Villone 1.50 6.0 .67
Randy Flores 2.89 9.1 .75
Brett Tomko 0.87 10.1 .97
Jason Isringhausen 2.25 4.0 1.50
Chris Narveson 6.23 13.0 1.62
Ben Julianel 7.56 8.1 1.68
Carmen Cali 5.68 6.1 1.89
Kelvin Jimenez 6.75 12.0 2.00
Am I forgetting anyone? Is there any other info or stats you'd like to have included? For the sake of easiness....minor league FA that never played for the Cardinals will not be included, but players drafted by the Cardinals but currently with another organization will be. So that means no Edgar Gonzalez or Jolbert Cabrera, but Mike McCoy and Reid Gorecki will remain on the tracker.
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Gregerson Makes Padres opening day roster
He joins Anthony Reyes, Dan Haren, and Braden Looper as the ONLY pitchers in the major leagues drafted by the Cardinals playing for a team other than the Cardinals.
Tony's Guys
We all know that there are certain players that Tony LaRussa favors (C. Duncan, K-Mac, Franklin, Izzy) and certain players that he doesn't favor (Kennedy, Rolen, A. Reyes, B. Ryan, etc). I thought it would be interesting to take a look and see if this effects the Cards roster for better or worse.
Exhibit A: Scott Rolen
Yeah, yeah....I know that this riff was the fault of both parties involved. Ultimately the inability to bury the hatchet led to a trade for Troy Glaus, and the eventual drafting of Brett Wallace. Result....Team improved when Non-Tony guy removed.
Exhibit B: Anthony Reyes
We all know the story. Reyes gets traded for Pedermo who is taken in rule 5 draft by the Giants. As of right now, we have nothing to show for A-Rey unless Pedermo is offered back to us. Even if we don't lose Pedermo its hard to see how this makes the team better. Also, because of Reyes' departure we are subjected to 19 starts in 2008 by the likes of Mitchell Boggs, Brad Thompson, Mike Parisi, Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder. Meanwhile, Reyes starts 13 games in AAA with a 3.15 ERA and 6 more with the Indians with a 1.83 ERA. (pick whatever stats you prefer but the point is still clear. In addtion, we are now staring down the barrell of another Pineiro/Thompson 5th starter situation. Pineiro may have never been re-signed if they had a little bit more faith in A-Rey.
Result...Team got worse when Non-Tony player removed.
Exhibit C: Adam Kennedy
This one is a little bit less clear for now. As a supporter of the Skip to 2nd movement, I would personally like to declare this a major victory for Tony. Of course, we know that this remains to be seen until we get to see how Skip handles being at 2B for the next several months. Last year, however, we saw Aaron Miles get a good chunk of playing time and hit for a good average, until the acquisition of Felipe Lopez who was awesome in his short period of time here. Either way, I always felt the team was better with Kennedy on the bench and I think they are better with him out of the clubhouse all together. Result: Team improved when Non-Tony player removed.
Exhibit D: Brendan Ryan
Most of us dreaded the acquisition of Cesar Izturis before the beginning of last season. A lot of us thought Brendan would be able to handle the position on a regular basis, based on his '07 performance. Turns out Cesar was superior to Brendan both offensively and defensively and now we have a potential stud (Khalil) at SS. Result: Team improved at the expense of Non-Tony player.
Exhibit E: Chris Perez
I know its still early, but I'm ready to officially declare YP a Non-Tony guy. Chris barely got a sniff of the closer role last season despite season-long struggles by Izzy and Franklin (both Tony-guys). Of course, its not exactly like Chris was lights out during his brief stint, but he did show flashes of dominance, which is more than can be said for Izzy and Franklin. This season, we have seen him fall below the likes of Kyle McClellan and Brad Thompson on the depth chart for the BS reason that we need to have another long-relief guy. I understand needing a long relief guy, but it should be either K-Mac or Thompson, not both to go along with Franklin. This feels a whole lot like A-Reyes again. Let’s hope I’m wrong. Result: Team got worse when Non-Tony guy removed.
Exhibit F: Brian Barton/Joe Mather/Brian Barden/Brendan Ryan/Joe Thurston
Let’s face it…Barton and Mather basically lost their jobs so we could have 5 MIF’s, well 4 ½ if you aren’t willing to count Skip. I really don’t think that Barton was going to be seriously considered regardless of what he did in spring training. Mather being sent down is more confusing as he has absolutely nothing left to prove in AAA. In the end I think it will likely be Mather coming back up to replace Brendan Ryan (Non-Tony guy), even though it would make more sense to send out Thurston and keep Ryan on the team for defensive purposes. I don’t think there is going to be too much difference in offensive production between Thurston and Ryan, except that Joe can bat lefty.I don’t think Barton will be considered even over Jon Jay. I just get the impression that he is buried on the depth chart, and won’t be returning unless the Cards’ outfield becomes completely shutdown with injuries. This section is more about Thurston being a Tony-Guy and it costing another player, albeit not necessarily a Non-Tony guy, a job.
If you ask me, here is how the Cards roster SHOULD look:
Starters:
Chirs Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Anthony Reyes
Relievers:
Jason Motte
Chris Perez
Josh Kinney
Ryan Franklin
Kyle McClellan OR Brad Thompson
Trever Miller
Dennys Reyes
Lineup (not batting order):
Albert Pujols
Skip Schumaker
Khalil Greene
Troy Glaus (David Freese)
Yadier Molina
Colby Rasmus
Rick Ankiel
Ryan Ludwick
Bench:
Chris Duncan
Joe Mather
Jason LaRue
Brian Barden
Brendan Ryan OR Joe Thurston
I guess its just part of dealing with Tony as boss, but it would be really sweet if he, Dunc, and Mo got all the personnel decisions right. All in all, I'd have to give Tony credit for getting the most out of his team, but its frustrating when you consider that the team COULD be better.
Basically we'd have:
Reyes instead of Pineiro
Perez instead of Thompson or K-Mac
Mather instead of Thurston or Ryan
Pineiro could wind up having a better season than A-Reyes. But I don't think there is much debate as to whether Perez would be better than K-Mac or Thompson or whether Mather would be better than Ryan or Thurston.
Offseason Recap
Now that we know that there will not be anymore signings, I think its a good time to take a preliminary look at how we feel about the Cards offseason. (I think that's an okay way of wording it)
- Kyle Lohse - Re-signed for 4 years/$41 million. Of course, this is a bit pricey and it probably would have served the Cards well to be a bit more gun shy, but then again he is a Boras guy so this doesn't look as bad compared to the deals Silva, Meche, etc received.
- Khalil Greene - Acquired for Mark Worrell and PTBNL. An absolute steal in my opinion. There was a time when I was a bit concerned who the PTBNL would be, but after watching Khalil play, I'm comfortable with it regardless of who it winds up being. I think we'll get that Khalil who is somewhere at the midway point of the 2007 and 2008 versions of himself. Also, HUGE upgrade from Izturis' bat.
- Jason LaRue - Re-signed for $950,000. Not a bad deal. I like his defense, but he doesn't offer too much offensively (not that he's supposed to). Still, he did hike his batting average 65 points from 2007 (.148) to 2008 (.213). That's gotta be worth an extra hundred thousand.
- Dennys Reyes - Signed 2 years/$3 Million. Again, I have to say, this looks like a bit of a steal. Reyes has been one the best lefties in the game for 3 seasons now. Especially good deal when compared to Affeldt (2 years/$8 million).
- Trever Miller - Signed for 1 year $500,000 + incentives. I think it was a very wise move on Mo's part to restructure the original offer. I'm somewhat suprised Trever accepted, given the fact that he said the injury hasn't affected him at all. Either A.) he knew that his arm would eventually blow out, B.) he knew the economy would prevent him from getting a better offer, or C.) He really, really wanted to be a Cardinal. No matter, he's better than Flores.
- Joe Thurston - Signed to minor league contract. Tony should love this guy because he can play the outfield, too. It's interesting that he's getting chances at 3rd base, considering he's never played there before, but I take that as Tony looking for more reasons to justify a spot for him on the team. Though, it would be better if he could play a little SS. I'm concerned that a roster spot for Thurston means 4 MIF's again. I'm a little up in the air on this one, but I like the depth he provides better than say...Rico Washington.
- Skip Schumaker - Converted to second base. A lot of us pushed for this idea for a while and I was extremely suprised when they announced they were gonna try it. We've seen some good and we've seen some bad from him, but I think we can all agree that this is worth a try. If he can be decent at 2B than this is a major offensive upgrade from Kennedy. And it creates room for a major offensive upgrade in the outfield. We will basically be swapping out Adam Kennedy for Chris Duncan/Colby Rasmus.
- Aaron Miles - Signed with Cubs 2 years/$4.9 Million. I may be in the minority on this one, but I think Aaron was worth that money. I was disappointed that he left (especially for the Cubs). It concerns me that the Cardinals don't have a proven starting 2nd basemen if Skip fails to convert.
- Jason Isringhausen - Signed minor league deal with Rays. I breathed a major sigh of relief when I heard about this. I would like to see him back in a Cards uniform someday as a coach, but 2 of his last 3 seasons were absolutely dreadful.
- Adam Kennedy - Released and signed minor league deal with Rays. We all know about his defense, but there was no way this was gonna work. He had to go and I think the Cards made the right move (the only move?) to release him. Like Miles, I would've liked to have had him around in case Project Skip fails.
- Russ Springer - Signed with A's for 1 year/3.5 Million. I hate to see him go, but I really don't think he was necessary for this team. I think age is gonna catch up with him this season, so I think the Mo dodged a bullet on this one.
- Braden Looper - Signed with Brewers for $4.75 Million. Possibly another dodged bullet. Looper hurt himself sneezing this spring. I'm not sure of the severity of his injury, but I know thats 1 more injury than is being reported by the cards current starting 5.
- Matt Holliday - Traded to A's. I don't know why the cards were inquiring on him in the first place, but I'm glad he's not heading this way. Too much disparity in the home/road splits for me to feel comfortable paying him $13.5 million.
- Brian Fuentes - Signed with Angels. In a perfect world he would have been saint louis bound on a one year deal. From what I understand the cards actually offered more money for him than the angels. Either way, glad this didn't happen for multiple years.
- Kelly Johnson - No way would I have traded Ludwick for him.
- Ben Sheets - We are sorry, Mo.
All in all, not a great offseason, but certainly not a bad one. I think this team is improved enough to make the playoffs.....If Carpenter stays healthy. So, it basically feels a lot like last season, I would've like to have seen them acquire a durable #2/3 guy for the rotation to provide protection, but who knows maybe Joel Pineiro takes the league by storm.....(pause for effect).....(crickets)..... I think I'd give them an overall grade of a B- for making some nice moves but not doing enough to put themselves over the top...what do you guys think?
Hot Stove - until roughly 400 posts
A couple of names have been taken off the board recently, but it's still moving slow as hell. Oh yeah....Ben Sheets will miss most of 2009, thus making Braden Looper the best starting pitching option remainIng, now that Petitte, Wolf, and Garland have signed. Any guesses as to whom Mozeliak may be referring to when he says there will be pitchers available by trade in the spring? In other news...A-Rod tests positive for steroids - 6 years ago. The hot topic around here still seems to be 2B. What would you like to see the cards do?
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Payroll Reduced in '09?
Don't panic...this isn't really a bad thing at all. While considering the 2009 roster recently, it occurred to me that this is a very real possibility. The Cardinals have a significant amount of cash coming off the payroll after this year, and I don't really see much chance of them re-signing any of their free agents.
Let's take a quick look:
- Jason Isringhausen - $8M
- Mark Mulder - $7M
- Juan Encarnacion - $6.5M
- Braden Looper - $5.5M - It's possible he could be re-signed, but I wouldn't do it.
- Kyle Lohse - $4.25M - There's a slim chance, but I don't think the Cards really need to spend $40M ++ on this guy
- Russ Springer - $3.5M - Russ is getting up there in age, I think they'd be pushing it to get another solid year out of him. Especially at 4M +
- Cesar Izturis - $2.85M - He's been great with the glove and mediocre with the bat (as expected). I don't think any of us will be demanding he gets re-signed, nor do I think he will be.
- Jason LaRue - $.85M - While, I have enjoyed having him and the porn stache on the team, I wouldn't pay him a million dollars for probably about a half-season until Anderson is ready to be called up. I think he can be replaced with another less expensive disposable back up catcher.
Also, Jim Edmonds is currently being paid $2M by the Cards this season, so between these 8 players, that's $40.45M coming off. Now, factor in salary increases for several players and the imminent re-signing of Aaron Miles, and this comes to roughly $30M...at least $25M, anyway.
So let's see how the roster shapes up without these guys around.
First of all, I demand that Skip Schumaker be converted to 2B. He's a former infielder, a good hitter, and he's getting pushed out of the everyday OF with Rasmus on the horizon. I think he'd be able to make the transistion and this would form a really solid platoon with Miles (Skip is batting .349 vs. Righties and Aaron is .316 vs. Lefties - though lefty seems to be his "power" side). I also think that David Freese should be given an opportunity to win the "Speizio" role coming out of spring training if given a little time at first and in the OF. As far as the OF is concerned, Mather, Ankiel, Ludwick and Rasmus get the bulk of the playing time while Jon Jay and Brian Barton battle it out for 5th OF in spring training.
So far the position players look like this:
- 1B - Albert Pujols
- 2B - Skip/Miles
- SS -
- 3B - Troy Glaus
- C - Molina
- OF - Ankiel, Rasmus, Ludwick
Bench
- Miles - 2B/SS
- Skip - 2B/OF
- Mather - OF
- Freese - 3B/1B/OF
- Jay/Barton - OF
- Scrub backup/Anderson - C
SO...basically all we need this offseason is a starting SS and a scrub back-up catcher.
Now the pitchers:
Carpenter, Wainwright, and Wellemeyer (per Mozeliak in recent radio interview) are locks for next years rotation. You'd have to figure that Piniero will be penciled in based on his salary. That leaves one open spot. My idea would be to have a good ol' fashion competition for the 5th starter's spot between Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Jess Todd. If Todd wins, K-Mac and Jaime are bullpen bound, if Todd doesn't win he goes to Memphis and the other guy goes to the pen. My money would be on Jaime to win out. If Pineiro sucks, Todd or K-Mac could be moved back in.
Which leaves us with a starting staff of:
Starters:
- Carpenter
- Wainwright
- Wellemeyer
- Piniero
- Garcia
The bullpen is kind of a mess right now. We won't have a lefty reliever going into the offseason, unless you count Flores or Villone, which I do not. Thompson makes a better starter than a reliever, but I don't really know if has a spot on the team other than "spot starter" or "long relief for Pineiro". Jason Motte looks like he'd be able to make the jump. I would hope we see him in September. I refuse to include Tyler Johnson or Josh Kinney in this discussion; if they come back effectively, it will be a bonus. I would quit using Franklin in the late innings and go with a Motte-McClellan-Perez set up. Franklin can be switched to the Thompson role, since he has so much starting experience anyhow.
Here's what I've got so far:
Relievers:
- Franklin
- McClellan
- Perez
- Motte
So basically we need 2 lefties and a righty for the pen.
Which leaves at least $25 million to get a starting SS, a scrub catcher and 3 middle relievers. I'm sure a lot of fans will be up in arms if payroll decreases by $1, but I don't view this as a bad thing. It means our player development system is working, something that we aren't all too used to just yet.
By the way...in that same radio interview Mo stated that he wanted to pursue a veteran starter. I think we know how this story ends...5th starter competition in ST, which is why I included that part of it....but I also don't think its a bad idea and it would be really exciting to watch.
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your ideal opening day roster - hitters only
So we are a week into ST and I can't help but think about what I'd do if I was in charge of the Cards roster. Much has been discussed about what to do about the outfield. We've talked over and over about who should be the odd men out. I know most of us aren't happy about the middle IF situation (Kennedy/Izturis). It seems we are all fans of our young guys who have worked/are working their way through the minors. Like it or not the pitching staff seems to be mostly set (except the 4th/5th starter battle). If you were in charge how would you shake this roster out? Here's what I'd do:
Starters:
1B - Pujols
2B - Miles
SS - Ryan
3B - Glaus
C - Molina
LF - Barton
CF - Schumacher
RF - Ankiel
Bench:
1B/3B/OF - Mather (Spezio Role)
OF - Ludwick (would be in somewhat of a 3-way platoon with Skip and Barton)
C - Larue (I actually like this signing, tons of experience if Yadi gets hurt)
2B/SS - Izturis - (expensive late inning defense)
2B/SS/3B - Jimenez - (love the OBP and hits from both sides of the plate)
What to do with the rest:
Duncan - This guy has gotta to be traded for a SP and he's gotta go somewhere where he can play 1B or DH. How neat would it be to see him launching homers into McCovey Cove back home in the Bay area?
Gonzalez - I just can't give this guy an opening day roster spot. Trade him if you can. If not, I'm okay with sending him to Memphis if he's willing to go. We could wind up needing a veteran slugger if Albert goes down. Overall, I'd prefer not seeing him wear Cardinal red.
Kennedy - In the words of Weird Al, "Just Eat It!". Easy for me to say since it's not my checkbook.
Rasmus - Starts in the minors. Call him up if Slick Rick gets hurt, or just when he's punished AAA enough.
Phelps - Starting 1B for Memphis. Emergency depth.
Hoffpauir - starting 2B at Memphis. He'll be up at some point during the season to make his case for '09. I love this guy and want to see him as the starter someday, but if he's just gonna be Aaron Miles Version 2.0 ...I'd rather have Miles.
Barden - Starting SS for Memphis. Emergency 3B depth if Freese/Craig aren't ready.
The main problems I see with this is the obvious fact that the guy (Noah Lowry) we could get from S.F. for Duncan is hurt and there is zero pop from the left side coming off the bench. The latter is a problem that the cards have anyhow with Spezio's release. I wonder if the Giants have any prospects the A's would take to complete a 3-way deal for Joe Blanton (the Cards would probably have to chip in a prospect or two, also)....I'm sure the Giants would rather have Dunc than Dan Johnson if they are looking for a 1B (which they should be). The trade would look something like this:
Cards get: Blanton
Giants get: Duncan
A's get: 2 Giants prospects & 2 Cardinals prospects
For the record, I have no idea what kind of prospects the Giants have and I don't really feel like looking it up.
A new contract for Wainwright
Recenty there was a hypothetical discussion about trading Adam Wainwright. Considering the acts of desperation in the free agent market in recent years (Ponson, Wells, Clement), don't you think it would be a better idea to buy out Adam's arbitration years and sign him long-term on the cheap? Of course, this is not necessary to do at the moment, but say by the all-star break Adam is at 8-11 wins. Wouldn't that be the appropriate time to get this deal done? 5 yrs/ 25M - 35M? Sounds like a bargain to me for a WS hero closer and a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. Please, no more rejects in contention to be starters. Carpenter and Suppan are the exceptions, not the rule. With Boggs, Garcia, Mortenson, Ottavino, and Herron on the horizon we could put an end this madness by the 2010 season.
Ideal 2010 - 2012 rotation:
- Carpenter
- Wainwright
- Garcia
- Boggs
- Ottavino/Mortenson
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