SB Nation User Blog: The Ghost of Todd Burns

Payroll Reduced in '09?

The Ghost of Todd Burns — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 09:10:40 -0000

Don't panic...this isn't really a bad thing at all. While considering the 2009 roster recently, it occurred to me that this is a very real possibility. The Cardinals have a significant amount of cash coming off the payroll after this year, and I don't really see much chance of them re-signing any of their free agents.

Let's take a quick look:

Jason Isringhausen - $8M
Mark Mulder - $7M
Juan Encarnacion - $6.5M
Braden Looper - $5.5M - It's possible he could be re-signed, but I wouldn't do it.
Kyle Lohse - $4.25M - There's a slim chance, but I don't think the Cards really need to spend $40M ++ on this guy
Russ Springer - $3.5M - Russ is getting up there in age, I think they'd be pushing it to get another solid year out of him. Especially at 4M +
Cesar Izturis - $2.85M - He's been great with the glove and mediocre with the bat (as expected). I don't think any of us will be demanding he gets re-signed, nor do I think he will be.
Jason LaRue - $.85M - While, I have enjoyed having him and the porn stache on the team, I wouldn't pay him a million dollars for probably about a half-season until Anderson is ready to be called up. I think he can be replaced with another less expensive disposable back up catcher.

Also, Jim Edmonds is currently being paid $2M by the Cards this season, so between these 8 players, that's $40.45M coming off. Now, factor in salary increases for several players and the imminent re-signing of Aaron Miles, and this comes to roughly $30M...at least $25M, anyway.

So let's see how the roster shapes up without these guys around.

First of all, I demand that Skip Schumaker be converted to 2B. He's a former infielder, a good hitter, and he's getting pushed out of the everyday OF with Rasmus on the horizon. I think he'd be able to make the transistion and this would form a really solid platoon with Miles (Skip is batting .349 vs. Righties and Aaron is .316 vs. Lefties - though lefty seems to be his "power" side). I also think that David Freese should be given an opportunity to win the "Speizio" role coming out of spring training if given a little time at first and in the OF. As far as the OF is concerned, Mather, Ankiel, Ludwick and Rasmus get the bulk of the playing time while Jon Jay and Brian Barton battle it out for 5th OF in spring training.

So far the position players look like this:

1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Skip/Miles
SS -
3B - Troy Glaus
C - Molina
OF - Ankiel, Rasmus, Ludwick

Bench

Miles - 2B/SS
Skip - 2B/OF
Mather - OF
Freese - 3B/1B/OF
Jay/Barton - OF
Scrub backup/Anderson - C

SO...basically all we need this offseason is a starting SS and a scrub back-up catcher.

Now the pitchers:

Carpenter, Wainwright, and Wellemeyer (per Mozeliak in recent radio interview) are locks for next years rotation. You'd have to figure that Piniero will be penciled in based on his salary. That leaves one open spot. My idea would be to have a good ol' fashion competition for the 5th starter's spot between Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Jess Todd. If Todd wins, K-Mac and Jaime are bullpen bound, if Todd doesn't win he goes to Memphis and the other guy goes to the pen. My money would be on Jaime to win out. If Pineiro sucks, Todd or K-Mac could be moved back in.

Which leaves us with a starting staff of:

Starters:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Wellemeyer
Piniero
Garcia

The bullpen is kind of a mess right now. We won't have a lefty reliever going into the offseason, unless you count Flores or Villone, which I do not. Thompson makes a better starter than a reliever, but I don't really know if has a spot on the team other than "spot starter" or "long relief for Pineiro". Jason Motte looks like he'd be able to make the jump. I would hope we see him in September. I refuse to include Tyler Johnson or Josh Kinney in this discussion; if they come back effectively, it will be a bonus. I would quit using Franklin in the late innings and go with a Motte-McClellan-Perez set up. Franklin can be switched to the Thompson role, since he has so much starting experience anyhow.

Here's what I've got so far:

Relievers:

Franklin
McClellan
Perez
Motte

So basically we need 2 lefties and a righty for the pen.

Which leaves at least $25 million to get a starting SS, a scrub catcher and 3 middle relievers. I'm sure a lot of fans will be up in arms if payroll decreases by $1, but I don't view this as a bad thing. It means our player development system is working, something that we aren't all too used to just yet.

By the way...in that same radio interview Mo stated that he wanted to pursue a veteran starter. I think we know how this story ends...5th starter competition in ST, which is why I included that part of it....but I also don't think its a bad idea and it would be really exciting to watch.

your ideal opening day roster - hitters only

The Ghost of Todd Burns — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 09:21:58 -0000

So we are a week into ST and I can't help but think about what I'd do if I was in charge of the Cards roster. Much has been discussed about what to do about the outfield. We've talked over and over about who should be the odd men out. I know most of us aren't happy about the middle IF situation (Kennedy/Izturis). It seems we are all fans of our young guys who have worked/are working their way through the minors. Like it or not the pitching staff seems to be mostly set (except the 4th/5th starter battle). If you were in charge how would you shake this roster out? Here's what I'd do:

Starters:

1B - Pujols
2B - Miles
SS - Ryan
3B - Glaus
C - Molina
LF - Barton
CF - Schumacher
RF - Ankiel

Bench:

1B/3B/OF - Mather (Spezio Role)
OF - Ludwick (would be in somewhat of a 3-way platoon with Skip and Barton)
C - Larue (I actually like this signing, tons of experience if Yadi gets hurt)
2B/SS - Izturis - (expensive late inning defense)
2B/SS/3B - Jimenez - (love the OBP and hits from both sides of the plate)

What to do with the rest:

Duncan - This guy has gotta to be traded for a SP and he's gotta go somewhere where he can play 1B or DH. How neat would it be to see him launching homers into McCovey Cove back home in the Bay area?

Gonzalez - I just can't give this guy an opening day roster spot. Trade him if you can. If not, I'm okay with sending him to Memphis if he's willing to go. We could wind up needing a veteran slugger if Albert goes down. Overall, I'd prefer not seeing him wear Cardinal red.

Kennedy - In the words of Weird Al, "Just Eat It!". Easy for me to say since it's not my checkbook.

Rasmus - Starts in the minors. Call him up if Slick Rick gets hurt, or just when he's punished AAA enough.

Phelps - Starting 1B for Memphis. Emergency depth.

Hoffpauir - starting 2B at Memphis. He'll be up at some point during the season to make his case for '09. I love this guy and want to see him as the starter someday, but if he's just gonna be Aaron Miles Version 2.0 ...I'd rather have Miles.

Barden - Starting SS for Memphis. Emergency 3B depth if Freese/Craig aren't ready.

The main problems I see with this is the obvious fact that the guy (Noah Lowry) we could get from S.F. for Duncan is hurt and there is zero pop from the left side coming off the bench. The latter is a problem that the cards have anyhow with Spezio's release. I wonder if the Giants have any prospects the A's would take to complete a 3-way deal for Joe Blanton (the Cards would probably have to chip in a prospect or two, also)....I'm sure the Giants would rather have Dunc than Dan Johnson if they are looking for a 1B (which they should be). The trade would look something like this:

Cards get: Blanton
Giants get: Duncan
A's get: 2 Giants prospects & 2 Cardinals prospects

For the record, I have no idea what kind of prospects the Giants have and I don't really feel like looking it up.

A new contract for Wainwright

The Ghost of Todd Burns — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:49:20 -0000

Recenty there was a hypothetical discussion about trading Adam Wainwright. Considering the acts of desperation in the free agent market in recent years (Ponson, Wells, Clement), don't you think it would be a better idea to buy out Adam's arbitration years and sign him long-term on the cheap? Of course, this is not necessary to do at the moment, but say by the all-star break Adam is at 8-11 wins. Wouldn't that be the appropriate time to get this deal done? 5 yrs/ 25M - 35M? Sounds like a bargain to me for a WS hero closer and a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. Please, no more rejects in contention to be starters. Carpenter and Suppan are the exceptions, not the rule. With Boggs, Garcia, Mortenson, Ottavino, and Herron on the horizon we could put an end this madness by the 2010 season.

Ideal 2010 - 2012 rotation:

Carpenter
Wainwright
Garcia
Boggs
Ottavino/Mortenson