SB Nation User Blog: The Gun Young

How the Broncos get a bye week.

The Gun Young — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 02:13:35 -0000

Four weeks ago, after a very improbable comeback victory against Cleveland on the road, I made a MHR Post pointing out a very unusual and mysterious alignment at that point for the Broncos and the number 4 (4-4 record, winning by 4,avoiding 4 game losing streak, 4th quarter comeback, Cutler's first 4 hundred yard passing game, Marshall and Royal catching their 4th TDs of the year, and much more). After that game I predicted on a MHR fanpost how the Broncos would beat the Falcons at home (by holding Turner below 100 and forcing Ryan to pass 30+ times).

After the shocking Falcon's game, I predicted on MHR that the Jets would beat the Titans and they would be set up for a surprise loss to the Broncos the following week. I was expecting a four game win streak at that point for the Broncos. Of course I was wrong about the Raiders game, but I believe I might have been one of few who predicted the Titans would lose to the Jets and then the Jets would lose to the Broncos.

My point is not to simply toot my own horn, but to say I believe the Broncos still are destined for a couple of more number 4s. I will make a couple more bold predictions here now. The Broncos will not only take care of business this week against the Chiefs, but they will shock the NFL again with a 4th upset road victory in a row against the Panthers. Then, even though they will have sealed the division at that point, they will then complete an overall 4 game win streak by beating Buffalo at home.

The Broncos will then go into the Charger game 10-5 with nothing to gain. They will essentially rest most their key players and starters. The Chargers game will be the Broncos bye week to rest and get ready for Indy. Of course I predicted the Broncos would go 10-6, so yes I think the the Chargers will beat our second and third stringers, but obviously it will be empty and shallow, and us not even playing our starters will be the biggest slap of all in their face.

Guess what. As the Broncos enter the playoffs, they will be 4 games away from being SB champions.

Blueprint to Victory executed perfectly.

The Gun Young — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 21:13:03 -0000

The blueprint to victory (I posted earlier) was executed to perfection:

The Broncos got a lead.

The Broncos stopped their run game (3.3 yards per rush)

The Broncos forced Ryan to throw 30+ times.

The Broncos did not turn the ball over.

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So, the Falcons still have not won more than two in a row.

Every one of the Falcon's losses have come after a home victory.

Every one of the Falcon's losses have involved Ryan throwing 30+ times, and Turner being held below 100 yards rushing.

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Some of our injuries have been blessings. Woodyard, Larsen, Hillis, Bell are all players.

Blueprint to beating Falcons

The Gun Young — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:51:44 -0000

The Falcons have lost 3 games.

In all 3 games, Turner has been held to less than 100 yards rushing.

The Falcons trailed early in each loss.

And Ryan has attempted over 30 passes in each loss (the only games in which he has). Not surprisingly, 4 of 5 of Ryan's INTs have come in these three losses.

For the Broncos, we know avoiding offensive turnovers is our number 1key to victory.

But if we can also get an early lead, hold down their run game, and force Ryan to throw +30 times, than we should taste victory.

The bad news for the Broncos is that all 3 Falcon losses have come on the road.

However, each Falcon loss has come after a home victory, and they have not won more than two games in a row all year. This week's game comes off a Falcon's home win, and their second in a row. So that could be good omen for the Broncs.

Of course, stopping Turner will be hard for our defense, so to do so we will have to commit to 8 in the box, and we will have to tackle well. Luckily they do not have a TE like Winslow to abuse us this week, so we need to also use that 8 in the box to blitz the heck out of Ryan.

No doubt he will make some plays, especially against our defense. But he is a rookie QB, and once again if we can force him to throw 30+ times, with lots of pressure, than we should get some stops and/or some turnovers.

Of course, offensively for the Broncos, we need to score 28+ points, and we need success early. With the way the Saints lit up the 4th quarter on the Falcons, I think we should start with the way we ended at Cleveland (single back-Hillis, with 3 WR or two TEs and 2 Wrs). And Cutler needs to play turnover free.

Yes this will all be difficult, but we know it is possible. This is how we have won each game this year (score a lot, not turn the ball over, stop the other team's run game, and win a shoot out).

I see it happening again this week. Go Broncos!

Destiny 4 the Broncos

The Gun Young — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 15:40:30 -0000

After the game, when Brandon Marshall stated he wanted to make a tribute to our New President Elect- the 44th President of the USA, I started to see a lot of connections 4 the Broncos.

-The Broncos came into the game 4-4

-And they won by 4 points

-On a night they scored a total of 4 touchdowns

-After having played just 4 days prior

-After having lost 4 of five previous games

-They prevented a potential 4 game losing streak

-Thanks to Jay Cutler's first 4 hundred yard game

-With the winning TD, being Brandon Marshall's 4th TD reception of the year

-With the biggest game changing play, being Royal's 4th TD reception of the year

-With one of the most critical plays, coming on a 4th down run by Peyton Hillis

-On a night when the Broncos lost their 4th RB of the year

-But also when Scheffler played hurt and made 4 really big catches

-With it being a great 4th quarter comeback for JC, with all his TDs in the 4th Q.

THIS WAS CLEARLY A WIN DESTINED 4 THE BRONCOS.

Oh yeah, by the way, . . . for the night the Broncos averaged 4.4 yards per rush!

Post Loss Good News for Broncos.

The Gun Young — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:06:10 -0000

- So far the Broncos have only been beaten by themselves this year.

- The Broncos Defense forced a couple of turnovers.

- The Broncos Defense had a couple of sacks (almost three).

- Broncos running game continues to get better.

- Once again another game where JC does not get sacked.

- No big special team returns allowed allowed this game.

- Prater continues to be very reliable.

- Despite being double teamed, BM still had 9 catches.

- Back up players got a chance to play and develop (Martinez, Jackson, etc.)

- Moss actually got to play, and seemed to pressure the pocket a few times.

- Crowder was also seen on the field.

- The loss gives the young Broncos more impetus to learn from.

- The Broncos will continue to be over-looked, due to being viewed as over-rated.

- No serious injuries, and Broncos should get some weapons back for N.E.

- 5-2 Still sounds good, and is as good, if not better than most expected.

- The Broncos still lead the AFC West.

- Despite a couple of bad calls, the Broncos won't blame the refs, like S.D. or N.O.

Young Broncos show veteran maturity.

The Gun Young — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 01:06:21 -0000

Flash back to pre-season criticism of the Broncos. Amidst all the commentary about the poor defense, poor D-line, poor LBs, poor O-line, Cutler being inconsistent, and the lack of receivers, the one comment which I thought was most bogus was "Who are the leaders on the Broncos?" "They have no one to lead them." "Where will the leadership come from when they are in a tight game, or face adversity?" Blah, blah, blah.

Well, our Young Broncos have shown as much maturity and leadership as any Bronco team in years. Yes, the 2005 team was very poised, but I think this team has so far shown just as much. Think about it.

We start the season on the road in hostile territory on Monday Night. Most home teams play lights out on Monday Night, especially against a division rival. Sure it was the Raiders, but we had a lousy rush defense, and the Raiders were one of the best rushing teams the previous year. Plus we had a new offensive line, and the Raiders actually had a decent pass rush (see Derick Burgess). SO WHAT HAPPENED? WE JUMP OUT TO A 27-0 LEAD AND GO ON TO KILL 'EM 41-14. SOME REAL MATURITY AND FOCUS WAS DISPLAYED IN THIS GAME.

Then we face SD, who had owned us for over two years. They had demolished us by more poinsts than any of us want to remember. The previous four games were not even close.

SO WHAT HAPPENS, WE JUMPT OUT TO A 21-3 LEAD. We then proceed to lose the lead, and lose the momentum, after some good SD offense, and a turnover by JC. SO HOW DO WE RESPOND TO THIS ADVERSITY OF LOSING THE LEAD AND TURNING THE BALL OVER? WE MARCH RIGHT DOWN THE FIELD AND NOT ONLY SCORE A TD, BUT ALSO CONVERT A 2PT CONVERSION TO WIN 39-38. OUTSTANDING LEADERSHIP WAS DISPLAYED BY THE TEAM RESONDING TO ADVERSITY!

Then we face another one of the top QB's and offenses in the league - New Orleans. SO WHAT HAPPENS? WE JUMP OUT TO ANOTHER 21-3 LEAD FOR THE SECOND WEEK IN A ROW. However, once again, due to great offense by the opponent, they make a comeback, and the game gets within 34-32. Then as we are driving to put the game away, we have another late turnover (fumble by Scheffler). SO HOW DO WE RESPOND TO THIS ADVERSITY? OUR DEFENSE STOPS N.O. ON THIRD AND SHORT, AND WE FORCE A LONG FG, WHICH THEY MISS. EVEN IF THEY WOULD HAVE MADE IT, WE HAD 2 MINUTES AND OUR TIMEOUTS LEFT TO DRIVE FOR ANOTHER WINNING FG, WHICH WE WOULD HAVE DONE, AS N.O. HAD NOT REALLY STOPPED THE BRONCOS ALL GAME. SO OVERALL, ONCE AGAIN, GREAT MATURITY AND PERSEVERANCE WAS SHOWN!

Then in week four, we have the bad game, most experts prior to the season had expected us to have 2-3 times by now. So, everyone says the Broncos are over-rated. They say they can not run the ball, that JC can not manage a game, that our defense can not stop anyone. And here comes the hot 3-1 Bucs. SO WHAT HAPPENS? WE HOLD THEM TO SIX POINTS UNTIL MID 4TH QUARTER, AFTER WE HAD BUILT A 16-6 LEAD. JC MANAGES THE GAME AND DOES NOT THROW A SINGLE INT. OUR DEFENSE GETS THREE SACKS AND AN INTERCEPTION. PLUS WE RUN THE BALL WHEN IT MATTERS MOST - AT THE END OF THE GAME, WHEN RUNNING OUT THE CLOCK. ONCE AGAIN, OUTSTANDING LEADERSHIP AND MATURITY SHOWN BY THE BRONCOS!

SO FOR THE SEASON, THE BRONCOS HAVE HAD ONE BAD GAME, BUT SHOW OUTSTANDING LEADERSHIP AND MATURITY IN FOUR OTHERS.

THEY SHOW THEY CAN WIN MANY WAYS (OUTSCORING THEM, BLOWING THEM OUT, OR WINNING A CLOSE LOW SCORING GAME).

THEY SHOW THEY CAN OVERCOME ADVERSITY (LIKE WINNING ON THE ROAD ON A MONDAY NIGHT, LIKE COMING FROM BEHIND AFTER BLOWING A LEAD, LIKE OVERCOMING SPECIAL TEAMS OR DEFENSIVE LETDOWNS, LIKE BEATING A GOOD TEAM AT THEIR OWN GAME- THE BUCS).

THEY SHOW THEY CAN WIN WITH DIFFERENT PLAY MAKERS (CUTLER, MARSHALL, ROYAL, STOKELY, PITTMAN, SCHEFFLER).

ALL THIS SEASON, THEY SHOW GREAT CHEMISTRY AS A TEAM. NO ONE IS SELFISHLY ASKING FOR THE BALL MORE. NO ONE EVER BLAMES THE OTHER UNITS OR PLAYERS. NO ONE MAKES EXCUSES, OR BLAMES THE REFS.

THIS TEAM IS TIGHT. THEY ARE A REAL TEAM. THEY HAVE OUTSTANDING LEADERSHIP AND MATURITY. THEY WORK HARD. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THEY BELIEVE IN THE COACHES. BEST OF ALL THEY ARE YOUNG.

THEY DESERVE TO BE 4-1, BUT THEY AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET. THIS TEAM HAS GREATNESS WRITTEN ON IT'S FUTURE! GO BRONCOS!

Updated Bronco Bets?

The Gun Young — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:58:50 -0000

Base on both negative and postive trends, I asked the following last week.

Which of the following do you think is least likely to occur this season?

(A) Jay Cutler throwing 3 interceptions in a game.

(B) A Bronco RB gaining 150 yards in a game.

(D) Denver Defense holding a team to 10 points or less.

(E) Denver getting 4 or more sacks in a game.

(F) Shanahan firing another coach at season's end.

The Broncos came close to achieving (D), but as usual, some late game prevent D prevented it. And with Dumervil's hand getting better, and Slowik opening things up with some cover 2 corner blitzing, the Broncos also almost attained (E). But once again, no cigar. But, I know we all expect (B), (D), and (E) to happen sometime this year, cause our defense and running game are showing improvement.

SO based on further negative or postive trends, HERE IS A NEW QUESTION:

"WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN FOR SURE THIS YEAR, BETWEEN ANY OF THE ABOVE (A-F) OR BELOW G-L)?

(G) Prater kicks a 60 yard field goal.

(H) Moss suits up for 3 games in a row.

(I) Cutler gets sacked twice or more in a single game.

(J) Broncos end the season +4 in games decided by 3 pts or less.

(K) A Bronco CB has a multi-Interception game.

(L) The Broncos score less than 16 points in any game.

Bronco Bets?

The Gun Young — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:40:39 -0000

Which of the following do you think is least likely to occur this season?

(A) Jay Cutler throwing 3 interceptions in a game.

(B) A Bronco RB gaining 150 yards in a game.

(D) Denver Defense holding a team to 10 points or less.

(E) Denver getting 4 or more sacks in a game.

(F) Shanahan firing another coach at season's end.

Defense needs to play to strengths.

The Gun Young — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 01:24:30 -0000

I think Slowik has changed defensive assignments two much, creating too many mental mistakes, and taking players out of what they do best. This has led to inconsistency, big plays, and not having any defensive strength to play off of. It has also slowed the development of our young players, like Moss and Crowder.

We have run straight 4-3, with backers back; 4-3 with the SAM up on the edge; 3-4 with backers up and back, various nickel and dime packages (3-2-6, 4-2-5, 3-3-5). And others to boot. And in all thes intial alignments, we have changed up in multiple ways the gap responsibilities and coverage responsibilites of players. So what happened to the pre-season talk about his one gap defense simplifying things so players can just play? Even though all these defenses have been one gap, there have been too many variations for the consistency we need, and it takes us out of certain player strengths.

So, what are our strengths? Linebacker speed, corner coverage (when aligned properly), and a couple of high motor lineman like Dumervil, and I believe Moss, if given a chance. So here is the defense I think we should run most of the time.

Secondary:

I agree with HT that we need to play cover 2 zone, with man under technique. Champ and Bly need to play aggressive underneath man. If they know they have deep help, then they can be aggressive and make the interceptions we have seen in year's past. I also agree with others, that Champ needs to man up with the #1 WR, Bly on the #2, and Jack Williams on the #3. This is the primary defense the Raiders play, and their results are much better than anything we have done the last couple of years. And Bly and Champ and Jack Williams are just as good as their top 3 CBs. Also, if we stick to a simple cover two deep assignment for our safeties, then I think we can and should try playing Barrett at safety, as he has the best speed and size.

Front Seven:

Has anyone else noticed how fast DJ can get in the backfield, when he is lined up on the edge and told to fly to the ball? Has anyone noticed last year, how well Dumervil can get to the passer, when he is blocked man to man, and he is focused simply on the pass rush? Anyone else notice that Boss Bailey gets on the back and TE coverage when in tight coverage versus when he has to read and react in a zone drop? Here is the unorhodox but best answer.

A five man front, with 3 DT types on the interior (or at least with Crowder or Ekuban as power ends on one end, with 2 DTs inside), with Dumervil outside technique on the TE side, and with DJ lined up on the edge on the weakside. Both DJ and Dumervil are to crash to the RB or QB, or read and react to dump passes to RBs on the edge. The 3 interior lineman play run, bull rush, and stop draws and middle screens. Our Inside LB plays in the middle and flows to the TB for tackle or coverage. Boss plays man to man on the TE, and follows him in motion wherever he goes.

With five on the line of scrimmage, Dumervil will have man on man blocks, DJ can use his speed to crash and chase from behind, and our interior is plugged with 3 DTs. Also with, our CBs tighter and safeties deep, we can send corner blitzes. We can also run a safety down at the snap to cover the TE or fill the middle, and allow Boss or Webster to blitz.

We may have seen a similar basid defense defensive alignment when DJ blew up that 3rd and short at the end of the N.O.'s game, but I think we should run this defense most plays (except for goal line and 3rd and really long). And while it would not be perfect, we would create a lot more negative plays and big plays, and we would play into our own personel strengths.

Hope for the Defense.

The Gun Young — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:16:14 -0000

Yes, we all can agree that the Denver defense will not be one of the top defenses in the league. However, they will improve, and as I predicted in the pre-season they will be at least a top 15 Defense, and I agree with stuckinSD, that an average D is all we will need when we have the best offense in the league.

Here is the half full argument on the defense.

First of all, our defense gave up 3 TDs and 3FGs against one of the best offenses in the league (SD is currently ranked 5th). And of course a 2 point conversion.

31 points is not good, but remember they are a top offense. Dallas and Philadelphia and SD were all forecasted to have three of the best defenses in the league, and they have all given up more points in a contest than we did. So when playing a great offense, much like in basketball, the offense usually wins. So we need to keep that in perspective.

The good news is holding a powerful offense to 3 FGs out of 6 scoring drives is pretty good. I guarantee you if we can hold that kind of percentage or better each game, we will always win. Remember the game would not have even been close if not for the special teams TD, which is not going to happen every game, or hopefully never again this year.

Second, remember this is a brand new scheme. I saw a lot of confusion and players running quickly to spots without really keying into the offense. I also see a lot of scheme variations from Slowik, which tells me he is still trying to find the recipe that works best with his crew. Look at all the new faces playing on that defense who even just arrived in the last month - Shaw (DL), Bailey (just started practicing again, and definitely looked rusty), Lowery (S). These guys are still learning.

Thirdly, two of the big plays by the chargers, the two little RB dump passes for over 133 yards, and setting up two TDs, can easily be fixed with improved play and schemes.

In the next few weeks you will start to see more consistency and success out of our defense. Remember all they have to do is be average, and hold to FGs once in a while. Our offense will score 30 every game.