To change my mind, you could point to me a reliable study that shows that players of his minor league profile rarely succeed. You could point me to some comparable players of that profile, and explain how their k-rates led to their downfall. You could show me that their have been no successful players with his profile (though that wouldn’t be as copacetic, it would at least be something).

Anything really. All you’ve buttressed your argument was “history shows….” without any supporting detail.

The burden of proof is now upon me.  We're cutting through the strawmen arguments and finally getting to the nitty gritty:  what would allow aCone419 to change his / her mind.  Frankly, I'm glad we're at this juncture.  Now we can put this baby to bed.

Continue reading this post »

Well, it's been nearly two months into 2009, and I think I can safely make some judgments here about the highly touted prospect.  At the beginning of the season, as we were all debating prospects, there was a debate about where Chris Davis would rank if he was still a prospect.  During the thread discussion, I, and alskor, pointed out just how alarming Chris Davis' weaknesses were.  I pointed out that his strikeout rate was insanely high, that his contact rates were not impressive, and that his walk rate was non existant.

I stated that in his prime he would be a .260 / .320 / .525 ish player and hovering around a .370 wOBA max.  I also said that time would tell on whether major league pitching would catch up with him, especially left handers, and that his success would hinge on making these adjustments.

Two months later, everything I predicted has come true.  Davis is not making adjustments, he is not improving his contact or strike out rates, and he is being destroyed by left handed pitching.  Now, when he DOES hit the ball, it is going a long way.  His power was never in question.  I did question his glove, but that was an argument from ignorance.  I had no idea what he would do at first.

So let's analyze this:

Working season line:  .203 / .259 / .456 - .715 OPS - 304 wOBA - 71 strikeouts in 170 PAs (41.7%)

vs lefties:  .156 / .224 / .378 - 21 k's in 49 PAs (42.8%)

vs righties:  .221 / .273 / .487 - 50 k's in 121 PAs (41.3%)

Chris Davis is, right now, a Two True Outcome guy.  He's either striking out or hitting the ball out of the park.

His contact rate is an abysmal 56.9%.  Amongst players with 150 PAs or more, that's dead last in the majors.

Now, I will admit that his glove has been a lot more valuable than I thought it would be.  He's turned out to be a very very good defensive first baseman.  His speed is above average, and he runs the bases well.

But that's it.  Chris Davis has a huge hole in his swing, and unless he fixes that and fixes it soon, he's going to be less valuable than Rob Deer.  That's pretty bad folks.

Link.

According to the link, it appears as though the recent hubbub surrounding Esmailyn "Mr. Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo If You're Nasty" Gonzalez and Vladimir Guerrero has brought about more fed meddling in baseball.  Forty-two cases are apparently listed, with who knows how many to follow.  No names have been leaked yet, but it's only a matter of time.  Also unknown is how this will effect any case against Bowden.

Jesus God, it's a good thing we don't have any prospects from the Dominican Repub...

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUCCCCKK!!!

I bring this up because the Chris Davis fanpost had a lot of discussion regarding CHONE projections and their meaning towards second year players.  What has ended up happening is that folks are taking CHONE too literally while others are dismissing it entirely because they don't like the projections.

First, let me say that CHONE is a very good projection system.  It has been relatively accurate over the years and uses much better methods then the Marcel or Bill James projection methods.  It isn't perfect, though, and with the way it's formulas work it might be better served as a way of projecting veteran players or, at least, players with three years of MLB experience.  The reason for this is that CHONE only uses a three year equivalency at the major league level for it's projections, ignoring minor league stats entirely.  If a player doesn't have three years worth of data, CHONE does it's best with development and age curves.

Oliver, on the other hand, uses all of a player's major league years plus his minor league years adjusted with MLEs (Major League Equivalents).  What this means is that Oliver should be able to project major league performance for first, second, or even third year players with greater accuracy.  Time will tell is this is true or not, but for the moment we have a new tool to work with.

For comparison purposes, here is the CHONE mean projection for Davis for 2009 and the Oliver projection for 2009:

CHONE:  .265 / 316 / .492 - a .348 wOBA (8.8 wRAA) with 25 HR and 56 overa XBH in 516 PA

Oliver: .278 / .322 / .538 - a .362 wOBA (16.8 wRAA) with 37 HR and 79 overall XBH in 641 PA

The CHONE projection shouldn't be ignored, because it seems to be taking a heavier approach with Davis' development curve (especially the weaknesses that low contact + high strikeout guys have), but the Oliver projection has a better grasp on Oliver's power potential in the majors.  Both systems should be paid attention to because they both address separate issues, but neither one should be weighed above the other.  Oliver simply gives us another tool with which to project future performance.  I'm happy Fangraphs is continuing to bring us more information to play with.  It is really starting to become "the" site for modern statstical analysis.

*edit*

Please replace every instance of CHONE in here with Marcel and please go find the Marcel prediction for Davis and replace it with the above CHONE projection.  Or don't.  Whatever you want to do is fine.

O’Flaherty threw 60 pitches today, 43 for strikes. Here’s how it went down:

14 sliders - 3 in play outs, 2 called strikes, 1 swinging strike, 2 fouls, 1 hit (double), 5 balls
37 fastballs - 2 in play outs, 8 called strikes (1 strikeout), 1 swinging strike, 9 fouls, 6 hits (homerun, double, 4 singles), 11 balls
8 changeups - 5 swinging strikes (1 strikeout), 1 foul, 1 hit (double), 1 ball
1 curveball - 1 fielders choice (the groundout to Yuni that he threw home).

For those following along with our home game edition:

64% strikes on sliders but only one missed swing. The one hit was a by Howie Kendrick, batting right handed, and it was the play Morse was twisting and turning around like an idiot on. This was the first “bad defense” play that hurt O’Flaherty. Two of the outs were recorded on right handers as well. Normally, a lefty pitcher wont throw a slider to a righty, unless they’re darned sure they can get it really in on them (Arthur Rhodes, Randy Johnson type sliders). Normally, a lefty pitcher would throw more changeups to righty hitters, because it tails away from them. As you can see by the changeup results above, maybe this was partially the result of bad pitch selection.

70% strikes on fastballs and, again, only one swinging strike. However, looking at the Gameday PitchFX data, there’s some interesting results on the pitches made:

Kotchman got the first fastball hit, and it was a 91mph belt high fastball on the outer half of the plate. Not a good pitch. Kotch had just stared at a slider, so throwing a fastball away was a bad call. I don’t know if that was Burke or if O’Flaherty missed his spot, but it wasn’t a good pitch at all. This is a mistake pitch he didn’t get away with. This was also a bad defensive play by Ibanez, rather, it’s one that an average left fielder makes. Ibanez had to play it on a hop and then flinched at it when he misjudged the hop. This is the second “bad defensive” play that hurt O’Flaherty.

Please bear in mind, if EITHER of those defensive plays are made, the inning is over.

The Mathis double in the 7th wasn’t that bad of a pitch. I mean, go look at the pitch location yourself if you want. According to Gameday, the fastball was nearly in the opposing batters box. Mathis just went out and poked it. Good hitting or dumb luck? Neither, Mike Morse sucks in right field.

Right after him, Aybar performs a good piece of hitting, pulling an inside 89mph fastball down the left field line. The pitch location has that thing in and slightly off the plate. Good hitting or dumb luck? Your judgment call there.

The Figgins single comes next that drops in front of Ichiro. This fastball is a 91mph fastball even FARTHER inside then the pitch that Aybar hit. It’s way in on his hands and he fights it off for a single. Good hitting or dumb luck? Neither, the Angels are annoying and live off these duck snort hits.

After the double steal, HGH Jr comes up and grounds a ball back through the box that probably would have been fielded if the infield wasn’t up for a play at the plate. Good hitting or dumb luck? I call this situational frustration. The pitch was on the outer black of the plate, so it wasn’t a horrible mistake by O’Flaherty.

The last hit on O’Flaherty’s fastball was the Mathis home run. There’s no defending this pitch. It’s a belt high 89mph fastball on the inner half of the plate. A total mistake that even a scrub like Mathis can drive out of a ball park.

As for the rest, the changeups were working wonders against the righties. Vlad Guerrero looked like a chump on two from Potatoes and the only person who didn’t flail at his offspeed pitch was Howie Kendrick, who hit a changeup off the plate and away for a double. That’s a good piece of hitting, really. Tip your cap to that.