SB Nation User Blog: The Typical Idiot Fan

Wow. If I were Buehrle, I'd be pissed. Then again, we'll never know what would have happened...

The Typical Idiot Fan — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 01:49:55 -0000

Wow. If I were Buehrle, I'd be pissed. Then again, we'll never know what would have happened after this if the ump had called the right strike zone.

So glad you asked or "Chris Davis: Take 3"

The Typical Idiot Fan — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:14:44 -0000

To change my mind, you could point to me a reliable study that shows that players of his minor league profile rarely succeed. You could point me to some comparable players of that profile, and explain how their k-rates led to their downfall. You could show me that their have been no successful players with his profile (though that wouldn’t be as copacetic, it would at least be something).

Anything really. All you’ve buttressed your argument was “history shows….” without any supporting detail.

The burden of proof is now upon me. We're cutting through the strawmen arguments and finally getting to the nitty gritty: what would allow aCone419 to change his / her mind. Frankly, I'm glad we're at this juncture. Now we can put this baby to bed.

The first thing we need to understand is the argument.

Mine: Chris Davis contact rates, strike out rates, and plate discipline will retard his reaching his max potential. The arguments that his numbers improved at every level of the minor leagues is unsubstantiated opinion. His major league numbers were the most relevant to determining Chris Davis' skill sets going forward and playing at the highest level of competition will make it harder for Davis to overcome his weaknesses. The league will figure him out and exploit his weaknesses.

Perhaps some people just didn't understand my argument. I am not saying, anywhere, that Davis will NOT improve or CAN'T improve. I have said all along that it will be DIFFICULT for him to improve, especially at the major league level. Those who believe he has improved at every stage of the minors are basing this off the idea that because Davis remained relatively consistant, that meant he improved. I don't really see how you can make that judgment. If anything, improvement would be more obviously reflected in his numbers. So let us take a look:

(But first, a disclaimer. Minor league numbers are not necessarily a reflection of major league performance. Talent, on the other hand, is. A talented player will naturally have his numbers reflect said talent. However, a spray of good stats can be misleading. The "Quad A" player, for example, may hit extremely well at all levels of the minors, but in no way would he be considered of major league talent quality. Let me stress that I do not believe Chris Davis is NOT major league talent quality. This comment is merely to point out that minor league stats, in a vacuum, mean little. They certainly mean less than major league level stats, especially since the major league level stats are more accurate and detailed.)

(Also note, strikeout percentage is erroneously portrayed as strikeouts per at bat on Fangraphs. I prefer strikeouts per plate appearances, so my SO% numbers will be different)

2006 A- ball - .277 / .343 / .534 - BB% - 8.3, SO% -23.2 - BB/K ratio: 0.35 - 280 PA

2007 A+ ball - .298 / .340 / .573 - BB% - 5.4, SO% -29.4 - BB/K ratio: 0.18 - 418 PA

2007 AA ball - .294 / .371 / .688 - BB% - 10.7, SO% - 21.8 - BB/K ratio: 0.48 - 124 PA

Let's pause here a second. In the first round of arguments back before the season began, some folks were pointing to his first AA numbers as an indication he'd improved. I don't know what kind of statistical analysis would allow you to weigh 109 PAs as meaningful (and before you say anything about my examining his current season stats, hold that thought, I'll get to that), but it's certainly not the level required for prospect talent evaluation. Epsecially since...:

2008 AA ball - .333 / .376 / .618 - BB% - 6.5, SO% - 21.7 - BB/K ratio: 0.30 - 202 PA

he basically reverts back to his normal walk rate the next season with a slightly larger sample size. Okay, last but not least (well almost, 127 PAs, second least):

2008 AAA ball - .333 / .402 / .685 - BB% - 10.5, SO% - 22.8 - BB/K ratio: 0.45 - 127 PA

Another small sample size, another increase of walk rate. What does it mean? Nothing. All it shows is that in short bursts Davis can take a few pitches. The context of everything is missing. We know next to nothing about why his walk rate increased. What we can say is that it didn't last, just as it didn't before.

So what meaning can we take from these stats? Here's my interpretations and explanations:

Davis has demonstrated good power. I don't think there's any way to deny that; 48.4% of his hits went for extra bases.
Davis has struck out a lot. 25.2% of his plate appearances in the minors resulted in a strikeout. That's a combined total of his strikeouts vs. a combined total of his plate appearances. Combining numbers across minor league levels is not a wise idea, but for this instance, we are establishing patterns of behavior. Since his major league first year percentage was 27.8%, it's not unreasonable at all to assume that he's just going to wiff a ton. 2009's numbers are just salt in the wound, but we'll get to that.
Davis has not walked much. If you combine all his minor league stats (again, don't do this, it's not useful), he walked 7.4% of the time. Since his walk rate is 6.2% so far in the majors, I think we can safely assume that Davis just isn't a high walk guy. Modern year major league average, by the way, is around 9%.
Career minor league walk to strikeout ratio: ~0.29

(Note: I'm ignoring some other stats for the sake of keeping this simple and focusing on what I saw that led me to my conclusions. Batting average really means nothing to me and is irrelevant to this discussion. Stolen Bases are irrelevant. Etc.)

Rationalities: A poor walk rate can be an indicator of many things. As another poster pointed out in the original Davis thread (and I apologize for not crediting you, whomever you were), those who demonstrate more plate patience and watch more close pitches are also going to strike out more looking. That makes sense. If you're disicplined enough to lay off a borderline pitch, sometimes it's going to go against you. The easiest piece of evidence for this observation is the Oakland Athletics. Lots of patient, disciplined hitters, and lots of strikeouts. But Davis is not a huge walk guy, and still strikes out. So we can't assume that he's a disciplined or patient hitter or that his strike outs are the result of patience or discipline.

Batters with low alk rates can also indicate that they have high contact rates; guys like Ichiro or Placido Polanco. But neither of these guys strike out a lot. In fact, looking down the list of all major leaguers with low walk rates and high contact rates, I can't find one that strikes out at or above the major league average rate (20%). So we can reasonably assume that high contact rates indicate a low strike out rate. Davis certainly doesn't have that.

Okay okay, so let's stop assuming his low walk rate means anything and get right to the crux of the problem: the strike outs. Looking down the list of other major leaguers (active, this season) who have struck out more than the major league average (20%), you see several correlations. The first is power numbers. An article by Phil Binbaum should explain that nicely. The second is contact rates.

But there's an extra added bonus if you're paying attention. Look at the guys who show an above average strike out rate and a below average walk rate. Josh Fields and his career .723 OPS? Ugh. Chris Young and his career .728 OPS? Gah. Wait a tick!

Low walk rate, high strike out rate... a bad BB/K ratio? Eureka! We're on to something now!

BB/K < 0.30 and OPS, historical data, caeer, minimum of 3000 PAs:

Jake Stahl - 0.00 - .706

Nixey Callahan - 0.00 - .663

Billy Sullivan - 0.00 - .535

Pop Snyder - 0.20 - .552

Shawn Dunston - 0.20 - .712

Bill Phillips - 0.21 - .673

Tony Armas - 0.21 - .740

Corey Patterson - 0.22 - .698

Mariano Duncan - 0.22 - .688

Cory Snyder - 0.23 - .716

Joe Homung - 0.24 - .627

Jim Presley - 0.24 - .710

Bill Bergen - 0.25 - .395

Pat Meares - 0.26 - .673

Cy Young - 0.26 - .516

Alex Gonzalez - 0.26 - .691

Cito Gaston - 0.27 - .695

John Shelby - 0.27 - .645

Don Demeter - 0.27 - .766

Luis Salazar - 0.27 - .673

Joe Hernandez - 0.28 - .729

Bob Oliver - 0.28 - .696

Pat Borders - 0.28 - .663

Alfonso Soriano - 0.28 - .844

Pete Incaviglia - 0.28 - .758

John Bateman - 0.28 - .621

Frank Hankinson - 0.28 - .568

Hick Carpenter - 0.29 - .603

Jerry Denny - 0.29 - .671

Juan Uribe - 0.29 - .718

Andres Gallaraga - 0.29 - .846

Jose Guillen - 0.30 - .769

Shea Hillenbrand - 0.30 - .760

Mike Marshall - 0.30 - .768

There are NOT a lot of positive OPSes sitting there amongst those low BB/K rates are there? In fact, only two are north of and .800 OPS; Alfonso Soriano and Andres Galaraga. Of those two, Soriano doesn't quite fit because he keeps his strike out rate right at league average and his contact rates are significantly higher than Davis'. But... the Big Cat. Now that's an interesting comp I hadn't seen before. Sadly, we don't have contact rates dating back for all of Galarraga's career (only 2002-2004's, which hovered around 67%), but otherwise he fits right in with Davis' mold. Low walks (highest rate ever was 10.2%, 1998, at age 37, lowest was 3.3%), high strike outs (highest 29.3%, i'm not counting his last season and it's 11 PAs, lowest 15.5%, 1992, not coincidentally his best season by wOBA), decent power (.211 ISO, career). And he had a good career. Bravo to the Big Cat.

But look at these numbers; they don't lie. Going even a little beyond the 0.30 BB/K ratio, and sticking with the low walks and high strikeouts mold, you can find some other interesting names like Dave Kingman, Henry Rodriguez, Geoff Jenkins, and Dean Palmer. After that, you start running into too many guys with higher walk rates, better contact rates (lower strikeouts), or what have you. Basically the comps get too different. So what we're left with is basically one guy who manages to fit into Davis' mold that had a decent career. Decent enough to reach 3000 PAs anyway. That's it. One.

In fact, the highest OPS I can find in history of players with high strikeout rates and a low walk rate is Sammy Sosa (0.40 BB/K, .878 OPS), but he kept his walk rate average and.... well, let's just not go there, huh? Sammy doesn't want to address those things, so we wont either.

I have met or exceeded your criteria. I have laid my case for why the red flags of Chris Davis' minor league career set off alarms in my head. I have provided historical precedent says that players with Chris Davis' skill set just don't succeed. I have given you comparable players, only one of which was considered a major league success. Their strike out rates, coupled with their poor walk rates, made them mediocre players at best, horrible black holes at worst. And this isn't even taking into context positional considerations like how a first baseman is supposed to be the best offensive player on the field other than a DH.

The onus is now on you to change your beliefs. Either way, I'm done with this damned conversation. Good luck.

Chris Davis revisited

The Typical Idiot Fan — Fri, 29 May 2009 20:55:43 -0000

Well, it's been nearly two months into 2009, and I think I can safely make some judgments here about the highly touted prospect. At the beginning of the season, as we were all debating prospects, there was a debate about where Chris Davis would rank if he was still a prospect. During the thread discussion, I, and alskor, pointed out just how alarming Chris Davis' weaknesses were. I pointed out that his strikeout rate was insanely high, that his contact rates were not impressive, and that his walk rate was non existant.

I stated that in his prime he would be a .260 / .320 / .525 ish player and hovering around a .370 wOBA max. I also said that time would tell on whether major league pitching would catch up with him, especially left handers, and that his success would hinge on making these adjustments.

Two months later, everything I predicted has come true. Davis is not making adjustments, he is not improving his contact or strike out rates, and he is being destroyed by left handed pitching. Now, when he DOES hit the ball, it is going a long way. His power was never in question. I did question his glove, but that was an argument from ignorance. I had no idea what he would do at first.

So let's analyze this:

Working season line: .203 / .259 / .456 - .715 OPS - 304 wOBA - 71 strikeouts in 170 PAs (41.7%)

vs lefties: .156 / .224 / .378 - 21 k's in 49 PAs (42.8%)

vs righties: .221 / .273 / .487 - 50 k's in 121 PAs (41.3%)

Chris Davis is, right now, a Two True Outcome guy. He's either striking out or hitting the ball out of the park.

His contact rate is an abysmal 56.9%. Amongst players with 150 PAs or more, that's dead last in the majors.

Now, I will admit that his glove has been a lot more valuable than I thought it would be. He's turned out to be a very very good defensive first baseman. His speed is above average, and he runs the bases well.

But that's it. Chris Davis has a huge hole in his swing, and unless he fixes that and fixes it soon, he's going to be less valuable than Rob Deer. That's pretty bad folks.

MLB Investigating Age-gate cases in the Dominican Republic

The Typical Idiot Fan — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 06:26:30 -0000

Link.

According to the link, it appears as though the recent hubbub surrounding Esmailyn "Mr. Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo If You're Nasty" Gonzalez and Vladimir Guerrero has brought about more fed meddling in baseball. Forty-two cases are apparently listed, with who knows how many to follow. No names have been leaked yet, but it's only a matter of time. Also unknown is how this will effect any case against Bowden.

Jesus God, it's a good thing we don't have any prospects from the Dominican Repub...

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUCCCCKK!!!

Oliver projections now on Fangraphs

The Typical Idiot Fan — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 17:36:59 -0000

I bring this up because the Chris Davis fanpost had a lot of discussion regarding CHONE projections and their meaning towards second year players. What has ended up happening is that folks are taking CHONE too literally while others are dismissing it entirely because they don't like the projections.

First, let me say that CHONE is a very good projection system. It has been relatively accurate over the years and uses much better methods then the Marcel or Bill James projection methods. It isn't perfect, though, and with the way it's formulas work it might be better served as a way of projecting veteran players or, at least, players with three years of MLB experience. The reason for this is that CHONE only uses a three year equivalency at the major league level for it's projections, ignoring minor league stats entirely. If a player doesn't have three years worth of data, CHONE does it's best with development and age curves.

Oliver, on the other hand, uses all of a player's major league years plus his minor league years adjusted with MLEs (Major League Equivalents). What this means is that Oliver should be able to project major league performance for first, second, or even third year players with greater accuracy. Time will tell is this is true or not, but for the moment we have a new tool to work with.

For comparison purposes, here is the CHONE mean projection for Davis for 2009 and the Oliver projection for 2009:

CHONE: .265 / 316 / .492 - a .348 wOBA (8.8 wRAA) with 25 HR and 56 overa XBH in 516 PA

Oliver: .278 / .322 / .538 - a .362 wOBA (16.8 wRAA) with 37 HR and 79 overall XBH in 641 PA

The CHONE projection shouldn't be ignored, because it seems to be taking a heavier approach with Davis' development curve (especially the weaknesses that low contact + high strikeout guys have), but the Oliver projection has a better grasp on Oliver's power potential in the majors. Both systems should be paid attention to because they both address separate issues, but neither one should be weighed above the other. Oliver simply gives us another tool with which to project future performance. I'm happy Fangraphs is continuing to bring us more information to play with. It is really starting to become "the" site for modern statstical analysis.

*edit*

Please replace every instance of CHONE in here with Marcel and please go find the Marcel prediction for Davis and replace it with the above CHONE projection. Or don't. Whatever you want to do is fine.

It IS important to cite your sources.

The Typical Idiot Fan — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 06:55:38 -0000

It IS important to cite your sources.

Need this resized with "LATE" on it near the end.

The Typical Idiot Fan — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:38:47 -0000

Need this resized with "LATE" on it near the end.

Gameday didn't like it either, Richie. You still overreacted.

The Typical Idiot Fan — Fri, 09 May 2008 11:07:24 -0000

Gameday didn't like it either, Richie. You still overreacted.

O'Flaherty's bad day

The Typical Idiot Fan — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 05:25:40 -0000

O’Flaherty threw 60 pitches today, 43 for strikes. Here’s how it went down:

14 sliders - 3 in play outs, 2 called strikes, 1 swinging strike, 2 fouls, 1 hit (double), 5 balls
37 fastballs - 2 in play outs, 8 called strikes (1 strikeout), 1 swinging strike, 9 fouls, 6 hits (homerun, double, 4 singles), 11 balls
8 changeups - 5 swinging strikes (1 strikeout), 1 foul, 1 hit (double), 1 ball
1 curveball - 1 fielders choice (the groundout to Yuni that he threw home).

For those following along with our home game edition:

64% strikes on sliders but only one missed swing. The one hit was a by Howie Kendrick, batting right handed, and it was the play Morse was twisting and turning around like an idiot on. This was the first “bad defense” play that hurt O’Flaherty. Two of the outs were recorded on right handers as well. Normally, a lefty pitcher wont throw a slider to a righty, unless they’re darned sure they can get it really in on them (Arthur Rhodes, Randy Johnson type sliders). Normally, a lefty pitcher would throw more changeups to righty hitters, because it tails away from them. As you can see by the changeup results above, maybe this was partially the result of bad pitch selection.

70% strikes on fastballs and, again, only one swinging strike. However, looking at the Gameday PitchFX data, there’s some interesting results on the pitches made:

Kotchman got the first fastball hit, and it was a 91mph belt high fastball on the outer half of the plate. Not a good pitch. Kotch had just stared at a slider, so throwing a fastball away was a bad call. I don’t know if that was Burke or if O’Flaherty missed his spot, but it wasn’t a good pitch at all. This is a mistake pitch he didn’t get away with. This was also a bad defensive play by Ibanez, rather, it’s one that an average left fielder makes. Ibanez had to play it on a hop and then flinched at it when he misjudged the hop. This is the second “bad defensive” play that hurt O’Flaherty.

Please bear in mind, if EITHER of those defensive plays are made, the inning is over.

The Mathis double in the 7th wasn’t that bad of a pitch. I mean, go look at the pitch location yourself if you want. According to Gameday, the fastball was nearly in the opposing batters box. Mathis just went out and poked it. Good hitting or dumb luck? Neither, Mike Morse sucks in right field.

Right after him, Aybar performs a good piece of hitting, pulling an inside 89mph fastball down the left field line. The pitch location has that thing in and slightly off the plate. Good hitting or dumb luck? Your judgment call there.

The Figgins single comes next that drops in front of Ichiro. This fastball is a 91mph fastball even FARTHER inside then the pitch that Aybar hit. It’s way in on his hands and he fights it off for a single. Good hitting or dumb luck? Neither, the Angels are annoying and live off these duck snort hits.

After the double steal, HGH Jr comes up and grounds a ball back through the box that probably would have been fielded if the infield wasn’t up for a play at the plate. Good hitting or dumb luck? I call this situational frustration. The pitch was on the outer black of the plate, so it wasn’t a horrible mistake by O’Flaherty.

The last hit on O’Flaherty’s fastball was the Mathis home run. There’s no defending this pitch. It’s a belt high 89mph fastball on the inner half of the plate. A total mistake that even a scrub like Mathis can drive out of a ball park.

As for the rest, the changeups were working wonders against the righties. Vlad Guerrero looked like a chump on two from Potatoes and the only person who didn’t flail at his offspeed pitch was Howie Kendrick, who hit a changeup off the plate and away for a double. That’s a good piece of hitting, really. Tip your cap to that.