SBNation.com User Blog: TheBigStapler

Is it Too Soon to Extend Matt Harvey?

TheBigStapler — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 17:05:50 -0000

I asked a friend of mine if the Mets should consider offering Matt Harvey extension as the Rays did to Matt Moore (5 years/$14M (2012-16), plus 2017-19 club options). He replied that it would seem wise but for the fear in his heart fostered by years of watching exciting Mets prospects flame out.

"Gen K, Heilman, Pelfrey... I've seen this before and want to be sure Harvey's the real deal," he said.

It does seem like we get our hopes up often for young pitchers only to see them fail to live up to those hopes. Matt Harvey still has a small but body of work to be judged by but maybe we can learn a few things.

Let's take a look and see how he compares to those pitchers and also see what we can tell from the pitchf/x data so far. This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of his career, merely a set of observations.

I want to see if we can safely call Matt Harvey an elite pitcher (if not established) and determine if it's wise to offer an extension.

Burned in the past Here's the thing with Matt Harvey, he's already better than those other pitchers ever were. It's no longer a question of him reaching his ceiling, it's staying there. Gen K, Heilman, or Pelfrey all had potential and simply didn't deliver.

Over the course of their entire careers, Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher, Aaron Heilman, and Mike Pelfrey have a combined 2 games striking out 10 or more batters. Matt Harvey already has 3.

The best single season K/9 for any of these players--again, over their entire careers--is 9.5 (Heilman as a reliever). Harvey's career line is 10.9 K/9. Harvey has potential but has also already delivered.

Beyond the hype, what kind of stuff are we talking about?

The fastball We know he throws hard. He's 5th among SP in average fastball velocity at 94 mph, (Strasburg is #1 at 95.6 mph). He also throws it a lot and with great success. But is he reliant on it?

The slider In reality, the fastball isn't even his best pitch (although you could argue that it's how he sets up other pitches with it that makes it more valuable). He ranks 6th in slider velocity at 87.6 mph (#1 Shields, 88.6) while he ranks 8th in z-plane movement at 4.2. As a result, he has a .064 opposing batter AVG on that pitch.

I mean, look at this thing.

via www.fangraphs.com

The curve and the change

The curveball appears by the eye and by the data to be average, which is just fine for a 4th pitch. The changeup, however, while similarly effective, so far has the natural movement to become a weapon. To wit:

via www.fangraphs.com

His changeup features a respectable -10.4 x-mov and 6.7 z-mov. Can he repeat the pitch consistently with this kind of fade and depth? Something to watch.

Health I have no scouting expertise so I can't identify any mechanical issues but it passes my own eye test--no "inverted w" or apparent maximum effort. Also, he's a big, sturdy-looking dude. He has no record of health issues in college or professional baseball. He could get hurt tomorrow just like any pitcher but the odds appear to be in his favor.

The results Matt Harvey has a career 2.33 ERA in 73.1 IP, a 10.92 K/9. The caveat here is sample size. I don't expect him to stay this lucky but the stuff is there to sustain that level.

My point I believe Matt Harvey can be called an elite pitcher already. It certainly won't hurt to wait a little bit longer but the best time to lock him up longterm may be close, if it isn't here already.I asked a friend of mine if the Mets should consider offering Matt Harvey extension as the Rays did to Matt Moore (5 years/$14M (2012-16), plus 2017-19 club options). He replied that it would seem wise but for the fear in his heart fostered by years of watching exciting Mets prospects flame out.

"Gen K, Heilman, Pelfrey... I've seen this before and want to be sure Harvey's the real deal," he said.

It does seem like we get our hopes up often for young pitchers only to see them fail to live up to those hopes. Matt Harvey still has a small but body of work to be judged by but maybe we can learn a few things.

Let's take a look and see how he compares to those pitchers and also see what we can tell from the pitchf/x data so far. This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of his career, merely a set of observations.

I want to see if we can safely call Matt Harvey an elite pitcher (if not established) and determine if it's wise to offer an extension.

Burned in the past Here's the thing with Matt Harvey, he's already better than those other pitchers ever were. It's no longer a question of him reaching his ceiling, it's staying there. Gen K, Heilman, or Pelfrey all had potential and simply didn't deliver.

Over the course of their entire careers, Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher, Aaron Heilman, and Mike Pelfrey have a combined 2 games striking out 10 or more batters. Matt Harvey already has 3.

The best single season K/9 for any of these players--again, over their entire careers--is 9.5 (Heilman as a reliever). Harvey's career line is 10.9 K/9. Harvey has potential but has also already delivered.

Beyond the hype, what kind of stuff are we talking about?

The fastball We know he throws hard. He's 5th among SP in average fastball velocity at 94 mph, (Strasburg is #1 at 95.6 mph). He also throws it a lot and with great success. But is he reliant on it?

The slider In reality, the fastball isn't even his best pitch (although you could argue that it's how he sets up other pitches with it that makes it more valuable). He ranks 6th in slider velocity at 87.6 mph (#1 Shields, 88.6) while he ranks 8th in z-plane movement at 4.2. As a result, he has a .064 opposing batter AVG on that pitch.

I mean, look at this thing.

via www.fangraphs.com

Poll

When might Harvey establish himself enough in your mind to make a Matt Moore-esque longterm extension a good idea?

He already has, let's make a deal.

51 votes

Let's see what he can do in 2013 first.

43 votes

I would wait until his arbitration years.

6 votes

I would never guarantee him years beyond normal team control.

1 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

Graphic on Knuckleball Physics

TheBigStapler — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 19:50:38 -0000

Graphic on Knuckleball Physics

From the Washington Post, interestingly, about Dickey's knuckleball, the flight of the pitch, and the batter's perception of it.

I'm sure you're all sick of New York fans taking over your site (and your stadium) but here's a...

TheBigStapler — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 22:22:59 -0000

I'm sure you're all sick of New York fans taking over your site (and your stadium) but here's a nice tribute reel from a Mets blog, The Apple. You guys are gonna love Jose.

Your Handy Guide to Pitchers as Hitters - Baseball Nation

TheBigStapler — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 17:43:59 -0000

Your Handy Guide to Pitchers as Hitters - Baseball Nation

The taxonomy of pitchers hitting, with animated GIF evidence.

Ted Berg - What We Carry

TheBigStapler — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 19:33:38 -0000

Ted Berg - What We Carry

This is another one of Berg's more personal writings that reaffirm the feeling that baseball is bigger than the game. Wholly unpretentious, well written and sweet, but not cheesy.

2010 Rule 5 Drafted Pitchers in the Majors: Pitch Analysis

TheBigStapler — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 17:08:07 -0000

2010 Rule 5 Drafted Pitchers in the Majors: Pitch Analysis

On Beato, Garik16 writes:

Really the only pitch that's nothing special is the change-up, which still has the same sink as the two-seamer without the great velocity.

So it would seem that Beato seems like he has the potential to be the next breakout pitcher from the Rule 5 draft, more so than the other three pitchers above.

Twins, Nishioka Agree To Three Year, $10 Million Deal

TheBigStapler — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 23:31:27 -0000

Twins, Nishioka Agree To Three Year, $10 Million Deal

Plus the $5.3 million posting fee.

What do you think? Would you have liked him on the Mets for that price (assuming it would have even been within budget)?

AFL Pitchf/x Leaders

TheBigStapler — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:53:47 -0000

AFL Pitchf/x Leaders

Beyond the Boxscore shows the top 10 in several categories in the AFL. There are only two pitchers who rank in both the top 10 in whiff% and groundball%: Jenrry Mejia and Steven Strasburg.

Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter

TheBigStapler — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:40:41 -0000

Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter

The site Fonzie Forever uses Fangraphs data to point out some interesting things about the cut fastball. 17 starters use the cut fastball and they happen to be an elite group. For half of them, the cutter is the most effective pitch, and for none is it the least.

Do these statistics make a convincing enough case for the pitch to become more widespread?

18 year old Yusei Kikuchi announced he will either enter the Japanese draft or sign as a free agent...

TheBigStapler — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:05:14 -0000

18 year old Yusei Kikuchi announced he will either enter the Japanese draft or sign as a free agent with a MLB team. (via Metsblog). Left-handed, tops out at 95 mph.

Assessing the 2010 Draft Pick

TheBigStapler — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:44:56 -0000

The Giants were happy enough with 10th overall pick in 2006. via assets.espn.go.com

There's been a lot of talk among Mets fans on the internet about our 2010 draft pick. According to the standings in reverse, if the season were to end today, The Mets would have the 6th overall pick. But it hasn't ended yet and the 5th overall pick is within grasp. Should we really be excited to lose more games so that we can have a better pick or is this notion purely tongue-in-cheek? After all, one commenter asks, "is there much of a difference in talent between 5 and 6?"

How much of a difference does a single position in the draft order actually make? I seek to answer this question quantitatively using WAR.

The Giants were happy enough with 10th overall pick in 2006. via assets.espn.go.com

How much of a difference does a single position in the draft order actually make? I seek to answer this question quantitatively using WAR.

Logically, and obviously, it is better to have an earlier pick. Your organization has the choice among the best available player based on how it evaluates talent and how much money it wants to spend. My hypothesis is that the difference in talent must be significant, even by a single degree in the draft order. The disparity among signing bonuses may be some indication that the potential for performance is different.

I decided to compare the career WAR (thus far) of players drafted in the 1st rounds between 1997 and 2006. I have looked specifically at the dataset from overall pick #1 through #10, chiefly because that is the realm that the Mets will be drafting next year but mostly because it is very time consuming to analyze deeper in the draft. I did want, however, a 10 year span in recent history. I stopped at 2006 because the players drafted since then have not had adequate time to be evaluated or, in most cases, reach the majors at all. All of the draft history comes from the Wikipedia articles on each year's draft. Then, I looked up each drafted player in FanGraphs and charted that player's career WAR to date in the major leagues.

Rather than post all of the data, here is some interesting information:

Draft Rank	Total	MLB Players	WAR >5	WAR >25	Highest
1	79.1	90%	4	1	27.5
2	131.2	100%	7	2	31.4
3	42.8	70%	3	0	20.8
4	32.5	70%	2	0	18.7
5	88.2	60%	4	2	19.8
6	37.6	50%	2	0	20.7
7	62.8	80%	5	0	15.8
8	20.2	60%	2	0	11.6
9	62.4	70%	6	0	22.4
10	90.4	80%	4	1	30.0

So what can we learn from this? A few things are interesting about it.

All but one player out of the 1st and 2nd overall picks had at least some major league playing time and more than half have been 5+ WAR players already.
There are potential superstars in any of the first 10 picks.
The trend between single draft order positions is insignificant as the numbers jump around quite a bit.

Now let's look at it in slightly broader terms:

Draft Rank	Total	MLB %	WAR >5	WAR >25	Highest
1-5	373.8	78%	20	5	31.4
6-10	273.4	68%	19	1	22.4

The total career WAR to date from picks 1-5 is significantly higher than picks 6-10.
Looking at the number of players who have already earned 5 WAR or more, it appears that the chance of picking a regular major league contributor is about the same throughout the top 10.
However, the chance of picking up a superstar (WAR >25) is much higher in the first 5 picks.

There are clearly some limitations to this study. The sample size is still pretty small, for one. But the mere fact that you need a large sample size to identify statistically significant trends shows that the difference between adjacent picks may be very minute.

So what's the upshot? Yes, draft order does matter. It makes a clear difference if your pick is #2 versus #8, for example. However, I was wrong, the gap lessens considerably as the picks get closer to each other to the point that it probably doesn't matter if you have the 5th or the 6th pick. The data is cloudy at the microscopic level. In fact, if you were to follow the data as gospel, you'd believe it's best to have the #2 pick rather than the first overall. The sample size problems are enough to confirm your intuition for now. Take the higher pick, it can't hurt, but there's no need to get crazy about tiny differences in the reverse standings.

Checking the Numbers: Perceived Velocity

TheBigStapler — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:40:44 -0000

Checking the Numbers: Perceived Velocity

By Eric Seidman via Baseball Prospectus (subscription required). Discusses the difference between actual velocity and "perceived velocity," which is calculated photogrammetrically by release point using PITCHf/x data.

Helps to explain why Chris Young is so good despite mediocre velocity. Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez's appear faster than they are while Johan Santana's appears a smidge slower.

Your One Big Move

TheBigStapler — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:15:04 -0000

If you were GM and could make one big move this offseason, what would it be, if anything at all?

edit: Keeping in mind realistic trades and budget constraints.

If you were GM and could make one big move this offseason, what would it be, if anything at all? edit: Keeping in mind realistic trades and budget constraints.

Reasons to Still Watch the Mets in 2009

TheBigStapler — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:41:02 -0000

via nydailynews.com. Johan is ready.

The Mets are 10.5 games back in the division and 7.5 games back in the Wild Card. The team's Pecota-adjusted odds of making the playoffs are 3.7%. We may sit back as fans and ask, "Why on earth would we want to put ourselves through 68 more games of this?"

via nydailynews.com. Johan is ready.

1. Johan Santana. So far, Santana is 10-7 with a 3.09 ERA in the first half. Last year by that time, he was 8-7 with a 2.84 ERA and went on to pitch brilliantly, offering 3 complete games along the way to finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting. The team may not be in the running for a division title but Santana is always in the running for a Cy Young. 20 wins to go along with his usual sterling ERA and a handful of memorable performances could earn him his first hardware as a Met. This would also be the team's first since Dwight Gooden, passing on the torch from Tom Seaver, in turn, to Johan Santana.

2. Gary, Keith and Ron. As the games become less and less important and it becomes clear that the team is just going through the motions, you can expect a lot of gems from the broadcast booth. Keith, in particular, is at his best when he's bored.

3. David Wright. Juxtaposed with the awful supporting cast, Wright's excellence should only be more stark. Who knows, he could even win a batting title.

4. The Three Stooges. There's plenty of front office faux pas in store for the second half. Sooner or later it will cease to be embarrassing and just become pure entertainment. Tony Bernazard's Grand Theft Auto-style golf cart rampage? Omar Minaya speaking in tongues during press conferences? Jerry Manuel's emergency 200 pitch bunting drill? Every stupid thing they do brings them closer to the exit.

5. The Return of the Core. It's been so long that we've forgotten what it's like to field a good team. Getting Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Delgado back on the team, perhaps sometime in August, will make us optimistic again, not for the postseason but for good, honest baseball. You've earned it.

These are my reasons for still watching, what are yours?

David Wright Aspires to be Met for Life

TheBigStapler — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:11:33 -0000

David Wright Aspires to be Met for Life

"Even though Wright's contract runs for three more years and the club holds an option for 2013, he said he would be willing to work on a new deal at any point in the future that would make him a Met for life."

Wagner is Throwing 90 mph

TheBigStapler — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 17:50:20 -0000

Wagner is Throwing 90 mph

Says John Franco on WFAN (via MetsBlog.com)

Fernando Martinez gets the call

TheBigStapler — Tue, 26 May 2009 20:49:08 -0000

Fernando Martinez gets the call

Edit: Jose Reyes and Ryan Church were put on the DL. Also, 31 year-old middle infielder Wilson Valdez was acquired from the Indians organization and added to the 25 man roster. Valdez is known more his glove (to say the least), although he posted a .382 wOBA in AAA 2 years ago.