Fixing the Defense

TheBirds — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:01:29 -0000

Hopefully you can read this and it makes sense, since I kind of wrote this in fragments. Also, I hope this seems worthy of a fanpost, as this is about as well thought out as it gets for me.

Things have gotten a little crazy with the defense lately. You've got a few solid role players playing out of position and at least to me it seems like it is too much to handle for them. I tried examining the effects of a simple rearrangement of all the cogs so that everyone was in a natural position and based on UZR/150 it appears this move is worthwhile. Since TLR really doesn't have a stable lineup, I tried to compare the defensive alignment I would most like to see compared with the defensive alignment we most see currently. To the right of a players name is the UZR/150, or the number of runs below or above the average fielder at the position per 150 games (fixed). I've only shown it if the player is moving somewhere different.

My Ideal

1B Albert
2B Thurston 4.2
SS Ryan*
3B Barden 21.8
C Molina

Current

1B Albert
2B Skip -29.3
SS Ryan
3B Thurston -9.4
C Molina

Obviously isn't going to be the perfect for explaining the current defensive situation, but at a net difference of 67.4 runs if these 2 infields were to play a complete season even with a great margin of error this seems pretty telling to me. So is this worth the loss of Skip's bat in the IF with a gain of Barden's? Well, I'd say so by a mile. But really, this should be great evidence for a trade for a good player at 3rd. If you do this, suddenly all the pieces of the IF come into place, offensively and defensively.

As you can see, the two things that stand out most are the Skip is a butcher at second and Barden is pretty good at third base. It's a little early to really determine this conclusively based on UZR, but it does make quite a bit of sense. A guy who, for all his highly touted defense, really isn't that great of an outfielder isn't going to make a good converted second baseman. Also, a guy who has experience at third but is nimble enough to play the MIF is probably going to be a pretty good third baseman.

I also feel for Thurston, the guy actually would be having a pretty decent year by a second baseman's standards, but he's really underachieving at third. Beyond UZR, he almost kills Albert every time he starts there. This is less about Thurston at 3rd and more about him being a pretty good replacement for Skip that is currently displaced. He has a decent bat, would you believe he's got a line of .258/.370/.435! in spite of many thinking he's having a terrible year. Maybe I should lay off the guy. His main problem is he is redundant as a lefty 2B, so why not fix this problem and the defense.

Basically, I advocate trading for a solid player at third, but at the very least make the move of putting everyone where they are able to be. It's disappointing to pull the plug on the Skip to second experiment, but I just don't think it's going to bear much fruit and I am starting to see why it isn't done that often.

One thing that is really confusing is the ERA of the staff has been very good, below their FIP when after everything I've seen I would have guessed it would have been higher.

* Would rather see T. Greene but that is a different issue.

Poll

Keep Thurston at third and Skip at second if the 25 man roster stays the same?

Aye

19 votes

Nay

20 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

Wainwright: Closer or Starter?

TheBirds — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 17:30:32 -0000

Assuming Wainwright's finger is now fine and he comes back after a few rehab starts, in which role does he help the team more, Closer or Starter. At first I thought this was pretty obvious, but now even Bernie has gotten behind this so obviously there is more merit to it than I thought.

Wainwright for Starter? The main point is very simple, wainwright would pitch 7 innings per 5 games as a starter, but won't even get half that as a closer. Wainwright gets about 4 outs more per game than Joel PIniero, the pitcher I'm assuming he would replace. That means that aside from maybe his first start back he takes stress off of the bullpen just by starting, so you can have your cake and eat it too. There is no need to transition Wainwright back to a starter, which becomes absolutely neccesary I think when you cut down to 4 starters if you make the playoffs, 7/4 innings per game of Wainwright is too good to pass up. If the Cards get a little help from off days and the arms are healthy, it might be a good Idea to switch to a 4 man rotation the last 3-4 weeks of the season if they need to catch up to another team.

Also, you have to consider that Izzy will still be there, I have a hard time believing Wainwright would boot Izzy completely off the team. So while Izzy might not be able to muck up any high leverage situations, he'll still make you uneasy and probably won't provide that many innings as I see him getting lifted early and often. I think the main reason why people want Waino as closer is they are just tired of the whole Izzy/Franklin fiasco, but they'll still be there.

Wainwright as a closer? He'll only be brought in for close game situations, which are higher leverage than the average inning he starts. Also, his ERA should lower (but then again so should Joel Piniero's) if he only has to pitch 1 inning at a time. And most importantly, we won't be blowing so many friggin games in the 9th inning.

That's about all I can think of, I'm sure there are lots of points that can be added. I feel the ideal situation is to DFA Izzy (tastefully if possible) and call up Perez. KMac moves into the closer role if you believe that the best reliever belongs there (I believe you just go for the highest leverage situations and there isn't much special about the last 3 outs).

Poll

Where should Wainwright go?

Starting Rotation

77 votes

Bullpen

18 votes

DFA the bum!!!

4 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

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