SB Nation User Blog: TheElusiveShadow

Most Underrated Plays in the Mack Brown Era

TheElusiveShadow — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:36:26 -0000

I was thinking about doing something like ctex's post by listing the most painful losses in the MB era, but since he said he would do that himself at some point, I'll leave that to him. Plus, while I'm a guy who likes history, that doesn't seem like a particularly fun thing to do.

Instead, I'm going to try to pinpoint some plays that certain players have made over the years that were incredibly important in either big games or even for the season but seem to be swept away by more high profile highlights. This will be pretty subjective, obviously, and I hope a lot of people can give us some good memories they have. My memory is a bit fuzzier in the early years of Mack Brown's tenure, so I'll probably avoid looking too much into those times.

Here's my criteria:

1. Not seen in highlights much after the game, or at least otherwise quickly forgotten. That means plays like Vince Young's NC winning touchdown, Dusty Mangum's kick, Quan Cosby's Fiesta Bowl TD, etc., are out of the picture. Those plays have been seen a million times.
2. Impacted the game and/or future in a large way that is not discussed often. A momentum changer or a gamesaver that just doesn't quite get the attention it deserves.
3. A certain player in a big play doesn't get the credit he deserves. Somebody laying down a key block on a big play would be an example.
4. Long-term impact on the program. Big win or one that sets up a run for the team?

With those ambiguous things, I'll start with my 10. I'm guessing it will be exceedingly difficult to find Youtube clips of many of these, so I won't even try.

10. Bo Scaife TD against Okie State, 2004

When you see highlights of this game, they will invariably be Vince's run where he seemingly shoves a Cowboy defender out of the way like a rag doll for a TD, Ramonce Taylor's reverse, or a big Cedric Run. I hardly ever see Scaife's TD right before the half, which made that ridiculous 35-7 deficit into something a little more manageable. True, we ended up winning by more than a TD, but that was an important score going into the half to give us a little bit of life. There's nothing snazzy about this, but not only did this give us a boost to eventually win the game, it helped preserve our BCS hopes that would lead to our first Rose Bowl.

9. Crouch fumble, 1998.

This is actually on the highlight reel that ctex posted, but I don't think I hear a lot of talk about it. We remember that game for Major's heroics and Ricky's toughness, but Major had just tossed an ugly interception that gave Nebraska excellent field position. Not only did our defense keep seven points off the board, it kept three points off the board with that fumble. I believe we scored a field goal on the ensuing drive following a Major bomb, and that's essentially a ten point swing. We won by 4, by the way.

8. Tony Jeffries catches a difficult winning TD against Kansas, 2004

Vince gets all the credit this game, for both his fourth down saving run and his winning TD pass. However, as well as that ball was thrown, it was a very difficult catch with the defender all over Jeffries. Jeffries was not a great WR by any means, but heck, that was a darn good catch that helped keep our 2004 BCS hopes alive. Nobody seems to acknowledge that that was a heck of a reception anymore.

7. James Kirkendoll reaches for the first down against Ohio State, 2009 Fiesta Bowl

Quan Cosby deservedly gets his highlights and Colt got the MVP, but what about Kirk completing that crucial fourth down conversion. Gutsy, heads up play that saved our hides and set up Quan's TD. He even got ripped off by the spot but he still made it, and everyone but blind Buckeye fans will agree.

6. Curtis Brown tackling the OU punter, 2009

Highlights of this game are plenty. This includes OU's failed fake punt, but few talked about Curtis Brown's effort on that play. It looked for a second that the OU punter, now more known for his soccer acting, was about to make it, and Brown had already ran past him. He turned around, chased him down, and stopped him short of the marker. Great effort play by Brown that helped shift momentum back to us.

5. Cedric Griffin wallops Ohio State TE, 2005

Highlights of those games will always center around Limas Sweed's winning catch, Vince's plays, and Kelson's forced fumble. However, you always need a little luck when you win a title, and we got ours when the Buckeye tight end bobbled a perfect pass from Justin Zwick for a touchdown. That was lucky, but the second part was not. Even though he bobbled the ball, it still was an easy touchdown catch as the ball came right down towards him. Cedric Griffin punished him for his mistake by blasting him, knocking the ball loose as it came down to him again and saving a touchdown. Ohio State would have to settle for another FG. Great teams take advantage of their luck and make their own luck sometimes.

This was huge because this game set the stage for our title run. Huge play. I remember my heart stopped when the ball was floating in the air.

4. FG stand against Michigan, 2005 Rose Bowl

Vince just scored to pull us within three, and on the ensuing drive, a face-mask penalty put Michigan on our 14 yard line with a first down. Starting with a one yard loss from Hart, brought down by Dibbles, Michigan didn't move another foot and settled for a field goal to push the lead to six and keeping it within one score.

3. Kasey Studdard recovers a Vince Young fumble, 2006 Rose Bowl

It turns out Vince wasn't entirely perfect that game; he fumbled the ball on a big drive, a fumble caused by Rucker. As was the case all year it seemed, we recovered our own fumble, and Studdard made the heads up play of getting on the ball. We would score a FG on that drive to cut the lead to five and keep us within striking distance. If we lose the fumble, we lose the game. Plain and simple.

2. LenDale White fumbles the ball for the first time all season, 2006 Rose Bowl

The 4th and 2 stop gets all the attention, but if it weren't for this unlikely fumble the play before, we might not have stopped him short of the marker. White hadn't fumbled ALL SEASON, and on a third down draw, Aaron Ross stood his ground and punched the ball loose. The ball luckily went right into the arms of Steve Smith amongst so many Longhorns, initially making me curse the luck we had. However, White lost a crucial 1/2 to 1 yard on that fumble, and with a generous spot for White the next play, we didn't stop him by very much at all.

1. Brian Robison gets penetration, White is stopped on fourth down, 2006 Rose Bowl

Michael Huff gets all the credit for this play, and he deserves a lot of it; it was a gutsy and heads up play by one of the great defenders in UT history. However, the D-line got great penetration that play by submarining the blockers, and Robison led the way. The penetration slowed down the development of the play and allowed Huff to knife and stop White short of the goalline. If it wasn't for this, Huff has no chance to stop White. We all know what happened on the next drive.

There's my list, with a decided bias towards recent history. I'm sure there are a zillion other plays to be mentioned, especially in big, close games like all of our BCS games.

Fiercest Rivalry and Texas preview

TheElusiveShadow — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:05:52 -0000

Here's Pat Forde ranking the hottest, current rivalries in college football. Obviously, we know who landed on top. This year's RRS will be absolutely insane. Maybe I shouldn't have graduated. It's always intense, but considering what happened last season and the fact that both teams, if they don't lose, will be in the top 5 when they meet, it may very well be the most anticipated and hate-fueled game in the rivalry's history.

Here's also ESPN's preview of Texas. I'm not an ESPN Insider so I can't really comment on it

Two Longhorns considered for best AFC North DT

TheElusiveShadow — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 18:53:59 -0000

Two Longhorns considered for best AFC North DT

Our very won Shaun Rogers and Casey Hampton. It would be nice for one of them to be back here for the upcoming season...

More Memphis Trouble

TheElusiveShadow — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:05:26 -0000

More Memphis Trouble

You've got to be kidding me...

What was most alarming was that prep school Dorsey came from which is now apparently rejected as a legit school by the NCAA.

2004 and 2008: The setup to a national title run Part 3: Special teams and Misc.

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:10:41 -0000

I started this series a few weeks ago, but then things like work, finals, and graduation happened, so... yeah. In any case, I'll wrap it up with a brief overview of special teams and then stuff like the schedule and incoming freshmen. The gist of this series is to do a simple comparison between '04 to '05 and '08 to '09 to see parallels that might suggest a great shot at a national title run. Here's part and part 2.

I'll start with special teams:

Place Kicker

Mangum: 11/15 FG, 50/51 PAT
Hunter Lawrence: 10/12 FG, 60/60 PAT

Beyond simple numbers, I think we all know Lawrence is a better kicker than Mangum was, even though Dusty will live on in Longhorn history for his awkward looking field goal to win the Rose Bowl. We also had Ryan Bailey, whom we know is a capable kicker although he was displaced by Lawrence this season.

Going into 2005, this was actually a concern; Mangum, who wasn't great in the first place, was leaving, which left us with David Pino. Pino was... okay, but our kickers were far from a strength on that '05 team. Pino only hit 77.8% of his FG in '05 and missed six PATs, although at least most of those were in the beginning of the season and some were blocks. Pino also did not win any fans when he missed a short FG and a PAT in the Rose Bowl. Because our offense was so great, it could easily cover up for a mediocre place kicker, but while Bailey is leaving (I think), you have to like our place kicker situation much better this upcoming season. Easily. Pino should be the most thankful that VY scored on that fourth and five, because if we had a better kicker, we have four more points and a short field goal would have easily won that game at the end. In other words, if we lost that game, Pino would have had to move out of Texas for a while.

Nobody is a big fan of kicking field goals; personally, I despise kicking field goals inside the 20 or if we start out with great field position. But it is a necessity and it's often the smarter thing to do, since real life is not NCAA football as Charlie Weiss seems to think. Thus, despite our great offense, it is nice to have a decent kicker in Hunter Lawrence coming back.

Punter

This is a more difficult comparison because we often utilize the rugby style punting (which I personally don't like), but here are the numbers.

Richmond McGee: 39.71 yards per kick

John Gold: 45 ypk
Justin Tucker (rugby): 45.21
Colt McCoy :) : 34.5

I prefer Gold's normal punting, and he was fairly good at it, averaging over five yards per kick more than McGee did. However, I do understand the logic of the rugby punt if you aren't that confident in your coverage abilities (which I'll get to below).

McGee returned for the '05 season, and he was actually a little worse, punting for an average of 37.79, although to be fair, he punted 15 less times because our offense was awesome. I think I'd take Gold, and I guess Tucker's rugby style, over McGee easily.

In 2008, we actually punted 13 less times than 2004 did (including all kickers), although three more than 2005. Hopefully, a decrease in punting means we're scoring and not turning the ball over this upcoming season. In any case, this would be another area where I feel better about going into 2009 than I did going into 2005, with two different styles of punting that can be effective.

Kick coverage

2004 opponent punt return avg: 6.29 (#18), 0 TD
2004 opponent kick return avg: 23.15 (#101), 0 TD
2004 blocks: 4

2005 opponent PR avg: 7.00 (#31), 0 TD
2005 opponent KR avg: 18.95 (#35), 0 TD
2005 blocks: 9

2008 opponent PR avg: 6.73 (#34), 0 TD
2008 opponent KR avg: 23.16 (#98), 0 TD
2008 blocks: 4

As much flak our kick coverage thought this season, they weren't too bad compared to 2004 and actually statistically better, although we can probably blame Steve Breaston for ruining our 2004 stats and we seemed to have used rugy punting a pooch kicking a lot more this past year. In 2005, our special teams improved (except for a slight jump in PR coverage), more than doubling our amount of blocks and slicing down on kickoff return yardage, which is great for a team that scored so much. I remember being very confident about the speed and athleticism of some guys on special teams, such as Griffin and Huff, and since the likes of Earl Thomas will be on special teams, hopefully we'll see a similar jump in our special teams coverage that sometimes was not as strong as we would have liked.

This is very important because of the potency of the offenses in the Big 12. It probably will not be as strong as last year, but we'll still be facing teams that can put up points and we don't want to give them cheap yards.

Returning

2004
Ramonce Taylor KR: 23.64
Aaron Ross PR: 7.56

2008
Quan Cosby KR: 20.59
Jordan Shipley KR: 26.27, 1 TD
Quan Cosby PR: 6.33
Jordan Shipley PR: 10.67, 1 TD

2005
Ramonce Taylor KR: 29.4
Aaron Ross PR: 14.71, 2 TD
Quan Cosby PR: 15.33

As we all know, the return game was a much debated topic in the early parts of the season, with many questioning why Quan Cosby was our main returner on both kickoffs and punts. The numbers show why; Cosby, except for his impressive 15.33 average on his six punt returns in 2005, did not impress on most of his returns. However, what Cosby did give us in 2008 was security; I can't recall him muffing a punt or fumbling the ball like Ross did at the Rose Bowl or do something inexplicably silly like Ramonce Taylor did against Ohio State, although Taylor would somehow wiggle his way out of the endzone for a good return.

Jordan Shipley was a different matter. Sure, you can argue his averages are skewed because of two return touchdowns, but the fact that he had two return TDs in the first place is pretty impressive. Look at the big improvement both Ross and Taylor had as returners in 2005. Shipley doesn't need as big a jump but if he can keep that kind of production while being good at ball security, I'll be more than happy to keep him as our main returner.

The problem, obviously, is that he's right now our most valuable receiver, and to many, it was senseless jeopardizing both him and Cosby in return duties. I partially agree that we should protect our best players, so I think Shipley needs to stick with one or the other. I personally vote for punt returning because I have more faith in him to secure the football, unlike what we saw in the spring game. As far as kick returns, having Malcolm Williams, Aaron Williams, or even Hales do that should be enough, with the former two showing great signs at the spring game.

Going into this season, we are probably less secure than we were going into 2005, mostly because we will most likely have new returners. However, I'm confident in the abilities of Shipley and both Williamses, so I think we'll have a pretty competent return game that can make opposing teams pay dearly for lazy coverage. The difference between starting at the 25 or the 30 can mean a field goal. We don't need somebody like Ross helping Texas be the #5 punt return team in the country or someone like Taylor helping us be the #3 kickoff return team (by the way, take a moment and appreciate just how darn good that 2005 team was), but as anyone knows, a good special teams is often the X factor in big games. The main reason Michigan kept up with us in the 2004 Rose Bowl was Steve Breaston's returning, and this past season, we all know Shipley's return TD changed the complexion of the OU game.

Schedule

2008 had a tougher schedule than 2004, facing four Top 11 teams in a row, although you can argue 2004 faced a tougher Oklahoma team. We'll get that out of the way. I'll instead look more at our 2009 schedule as it compares to 2005.

2005 schedule

Louisiana Layfayette
@4 Ohio State
Rice
@Missouri
vs. 22 Oklahoma
Colorado
20 Texas Tech
@Oklahoma St.
@Baylor
Kansas
@Texas A&M

2009 schedule:

Louisiana-Monroe
@Wyoming
Texas Tech
UTEP
Colorado
vs. Oklahoma
@Missouri
@Oklahoma St.
Central Florida
@Baylor
Kansas
@Texas A&M

Nonconference: Because of Ohio State alone, our '05 team faced a much tougher non-conference slate. With the likes of Arkansas and Utah bailing on us, our nonconference schedule looks pretty meek, but what can you do. We just have to make sure we take care of business in those games.

As far as our conference slate, however, we may be facing a tougher path than 2005 did. That 2005 OU team was only decent, getting clobbered by us 45-12. Texas Tech had a good team but we got them at home, and we all know how Tech performs on the road, getting walloped by the score of 52-17 despite having a top ten ranking at the time (and how did this year's Tech perform away from home again? Oh right...). Furthermore, while A&M was better than they are now, they still weren't very good. Colorado was actually pretty decent at the time they faced us in the regular season, being ranked in the top 25, but all the drama with Coach Barnett seemed to take its toll and they collapsed at the end of the season, culminating in that ugly game against us in the Big 12 title game. Therefore, looking at the 2005 schedule, there simply was not another great Big 12 team.

This season, while we won't face that ridiculous stretch like last season, we'll have some tough games. I'm not very concerned with Tech; they are coming here and they are breaking in a new QB. The only thing I'm afraid of is that since it's unusually early in the season, we might come out a bit sloppy. In addition, while Baylor is much better than they have been, it would still take a miracle of gigantic proportions for them to win; hopefully, we don't play them like we played A&M those two years. However, OU will again have a good team, and if both teams win the games they are supposed to, they will both be undefeated going into Dallas and sporting rankings in the Top 3. After that, we go to Mizzou; they no longer have Daniel or Maclin, but as teams like OU and USC have learned, you don't want to overlook road conference games. Then we go to what looks to be our toughest road challenge of the season, going into Stillwater to face the Cowboys, who are probably sick and tired of us beating them in our creative ways. OSU may very well have a top 10 ranking or close to it when we face them.

Overall, our schedule is not a killer, but we do have some tough games. Furthermore, going undefeated, no matter how good your team is, requires a ton of focus, preparation, and luck. Contrary to the belief of some Horns fans, Oklahoma will not suck next season; they should still be very, very good. Even if their preseason ranking proves too high, they aren't going to be a crap team we can just walk through. I think we should be better than every single team on our schedule, but that doesn't mean we will win every single game. Furthermore, a game like Missouri arguably fits the bill as a trap game, being sandwiched between our two biggest games of the year and being at their place.

Incoming freshmen

Very briefly, I'll look at a couple incoming guys who may very well have an impact. In 2005, people like Okam, Charles, and even Henry Melton were new and contributed nicely, although Melton was arguably more for entertainment than anything. In 2009, names like Barrett Matthews, Chris Whaley, Alex Okafor, and Calvin Howell have people wondering. We've already seen Okafor, and he looked pretty good in his first collegiate activity in the spring game. Howell is unlikely to be ready to play DT, as with our other freshman, but we are holding out hope that him or somebody else can help out Lamarr in the middle. Matthews and Whaley may have very important roles because they will help fill two of our offense's biggest needs at RB and TE. I like our runners now, but if Whaley is a monster right from the start, he should get carries. There's no need to talk about how much we need a competent tight end.

Conclusion:

Strengths going into 2005:
Athletic special teams
Explosive returners

Strengths going into 2009:
Athletic special teams
Talented returners
Solid kickers

Question marks for 2005:
Kickers
Ohio State game
Shoring up kickoff coverage after getting wrecked by Breaston

Question marks for 2009:
New returners to help Shipley
Shoring up kickoff coverage a bit
Tough games against the Oklahoma teams

Although our return game and our coverage may not be as good as 2005, we do have better kickers and I think we can field a very capable special teams that can make big plays and help us win the field position battle. A good special teams just makes it tons easier on both the defense and offense to do their jobs, and while this is the less sexy thing to talk about, it will be a very important thing to keep an eye on as we seek another national championship. If we are going to face a team like the Gators in the title game, winning field position battles could be the key. I need not remind you of the K-State game of 2007, where 2 special teams touchdowns against us were a killer.

And now... still three months away from football. Sad.

So, do we get a Final Four appearance?

TheElusiveShadow — Thu, 28 May 2009 19:17:14 -0000

I'm kidding; I obviously don't think we should, but it is kind of painful that Memphis may have to vacate victories of the '07 season, a season where they beat us in the Elite Eight. Bummer. I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this.

If these allegations are true, wouldn't this be the second time Calipari got in hot water? Kentucky might be most upset right now, and it adds a level of intrigue as to the reasons he left since he and Memphis knew about this since January.

And all signs point to Derrick Rose, who probably no longer cares since he's making millions and the NCAA can't do jack to him.

2004 and 2008: The setup to a national title run? Part 2, Defense

TheElusiveShadow — Wed, 13 May 2009 16:52:42 -0000

I forgot to mention in my previous post that all the stats come from cfbstats.com or Mack Brown Texas Football.

I looked at the offenses of both years in the first post, and now I want to look at how the defenses compare, which may arguably be more interesting. The two offenses in 2004 and 2008 were pretty different but were both very successful; in 2004, we averaged 42.4 points per game with 475.8 yards of total offense and in 2008 we averaged 35.3 points per game with 464.4 yards. Everyone knows we had a great offense last year and a dangerous one in 2004. However, the perception of many is that our defense was all around stronger in 2004, at least statistically, so I'll look at some numbers to see how the two look.

	2004	2008
Pts/game	17.92	18.8
Pass yds/game	212.67	259.38
Pass yds/att	6.61	6.87
Opp. Passer Rating	114.23	124.23
Rush yds/game	107.42	83.54
Rush yds/att	3.18	3.05
Total yds/game	320.09	342.92
Interceptions	13	6
Fumble rec.	10	10
Sacks	22	47

Before I get into this, I'll mention that this comparison is pretty hard because the offenses and teams we faced are so different. There's no question the Big 12 evolved from a run-first league to a pass happy league these past couple years, and because of the many good QB's, it wasn't a bad choice for Big 12 offenses. However, it makes comparing the two teams pretty stretched.

Defensive Line

The big statistical advantage for '08 is in sacks, which is no surprise since we had Orakpo and Kindle. The two of them had 21.5 sacks together despite Orakpo missing time, and that nearly matches the 22 of 2004. The player with the most sacks then was Tim Crowder with 4.5. To be fair, the 2008 team faced A LOT more pass plays, but 47 sacks on the year led the NCAA and it was one of the greatest strengths of our team.

However, Orakpo is leaving, as well as other two starters in Henry Melton and Roy Miller. This is very different situation than 2004, where all the starters returned for the '05 campaign (although Dibbles was replaced by the freshman Frank Okam). While you can make a case that Orakpo is the best DE we've had in the Mack Brown era, at least in his senior season, the biggest question mark this defense faces, and arguably this whole team faces, is at the DT position. With the loss of Miller, we're pretty thin there, making Houston probably the most indispensable player besides Colt McCoy. Furthermore, while we have some interesting new guys coming in, I don't know if any of them can step in the way Okam did his first season.

Because Kindle is moving down to DE (at least much of the time), we have other established guys there like Eddie Jones, and we have some exciting new recruits like Okafor, I think most Horns fans are much less worried about that position even with the loss of Orakpo. While our pass defense has struggled since 2005, we've always had a pretty stalwart rush defense, giving up only 3.05 yards per carry despite the success of Beanie Wells and Pryor in the Bowl game. Hopefully, Houston has a strong year, although I do not believe he will be asked to handle double teams like Roy was.

Linebackers

Because of Derrick Johnson alone, not to mention Harris, the linebackers of 2004 were a better unit, in my opinion. However, we had a pretty solid unit this year led by Muck and Kindle, although we were not totally satisfied with the play from Bobino and Norton.

In 2005, we lost the great Derrick Johnson, and although our unit was fine since Harris played well and Killebrew, Bobino, and Kelson probably had their best seasons as Longhorns that year, he was the key loss for the defense going into '05. In contrast, this season we only lose Bobino, but while we appreciate that he bled for the program, it is not a major loss. We return Muckelroy, Kindle, and Norton, as well as the likes of Keenan Robinson and Acho. Kindle will move down to DE this season but I still think our group is going to be pretty good.

For all the criticisms Bobino and Killebrew received in their times here (much of it deserved), I'll give them this: They did step up to help Aaron Harris out in '05 (as did Kelson) and help fill the void left by Johnson. You don't believe me? Check out this quote from PB from way back when:

--I like Robert Killebrew to slide in for Aaron Harris, and I think he's going to be just outstanding. Given the chance to shine, he was in many ways the best linebacker on the team for the second half of this year, and I expect him to anchor what will be an experienced and speedy group of linebackers. The wildcard here is Sergio Kindle. How much will Mack Brown and Gene Chizik play the talented freshman? From all reports, he's going to be too talented to keep on the sideline much. I've revised my projection to put him in as a starter, perhaps forcing Kelson back in to the secondary.

This is not to embarrass PB but to make the point that Killebrew did step in to play well to at least not make the LB position a glaring weakness in an otherwise outstanding defense, so PB's expectation was not all that unreasonable. The fact that the personal foul machine proved to be a disappointment afterwards is a separate point. On a side note, I always liked the speedy Drew Kelson, and I think he could have done much more for us if he stuck with one position.

For 2009, we do not have to replace anyone near the caliber of Derrick Johnson and we have several players already established. Thus, going into this season, I think our LB situation is much better than going into 2005. If Killebrew can give us one good season, than guys like Robinson surely can.

Secondary

We gave up a lot more pass yards this season, but even here, if you go by averages, the stats are pretty similar. The reason the pass yards are so different (nearly fifty yards worth) is that we faced over 100 more pass attempts this year than in 2004, which comes out to roughly 8 more passing attempts per game.

The big advantage for 2004 is in interceptions, although 13 isn't a huge amount. I even remember Dan Fouts in the 2006 Rose Bowl joking about our great secondary, saying that perhaps we don't get a lot of interceptions because our guys can't catch the ball (Tarell Brown had just let a Leinart pass bounce off his hands). Unfortunately, that perhaps is more true of 2008. I don't think we need to lead the NCAA in picks, but we have to get more than 6. The Blake Gideon drop has burned an image in the minds of the Longhorn faithful, and the lack of turnovers caused is a concern. Ten fumble recoveries is alright, but we need to double that interception count, especially if we're facing as many pass attempts as we are. Our '04 team got double the amount while facing 100 less passes and in one less game.

Like 2004 to '05, we lose no major parts in the secondary. The 2005 secondary is famous among Horns fans, with all four starters plus the nickel back going into the NFL (Huff, Griffin, Griffin, Brown, and Ross). Our talent right is nothing to sneeze at either. We return everyone but Ryan Palmer, who although had a much appreciated career, was simply not the most talented guy we've had.

I'm very, very excited about this unit, more so than any other on our team. I thought they looked fantastic in the spring game and I hear it's much the same in practices. I think Chykie Brown and Aaron Williams will be excellent, and I like our depth with Curtis Brown and a hopefully rejuvenated Deon Beasley. I also have high hopes for the playmaker Earl Thomas, who hopefully will be the guy who forces the most turnovers for our team. Scott will be a good hybrid guy and I love how physical he is. Gideon, too, has high expectations from me. Gideon has the misfortune of being judged by his dropped interception against Tech and his poor performance in the Fiesta Bowl, but he had a fine year and if you watch the OU game again, he arguably had a better game than Thomas, although Thomas ended up with two picks (the second one was meaningless). If you want to make any good comparisons between '05 and '09, this is it: We look to field a very, very athletic and physical secondary that will make this pass happy Big 12 frustrated. Due to our documented troubles in pass defense for the past few seasons, it's a nice change.

Teams with the a physical run game will be a concern, but for those who want to throw the ball with us, I think they will be in for a world of difficulty.

Conclusion

So here are the strengths and question marks of each team:

2004 to 2005 strengths:

Return all starters on the D-Line
D-line depth
Excellent secondary and depth

2008 to 2009 strengths:

Young, talented secondary with depth
DE depth
Solid linebackers

2004 to 2005 question marks:

Departure of Derrick Johnson
And... that may be it. How well Okam would play, I guess.

2008 to 2009 question marks:

Losing three starters on the D-line
DT depth and who will step in
Causing turnovers (namely, interceptions)

As much crap Big 12 defenses in general received from critics, the Longhorns weren't that bad and aren't far behind 2004, only giving up a point more per game. We ranked in the top 20 in points allowed. Furthermore, our averages in yards per rush and yards per pass were pretty similar. The Big 12 is different now, and 2004 did not see the kind of offenses we see now (though our '05 team still would have killed any of these spread teams we saw nowadays). Considering the potent offenses of the Big 12, I think our defense had a better than expected year.

We return several starters, as did that '05 team. With Will Muschamp leading the way, I have little doubt in my mind that we will field the best defense in the Big 12 again and I think we have the potential to be considered among the top defenses in the entire country. The big question mark, of course, is defensive tackle. I think it's unrealistic to expect to be as strong there as we've been in the past, but Muschamp can certainly scheme his way into covering this up.

Florida has the defense everyone is talking about and deservedly so, since they return everyone. But I feel like we can make our own noise, and if we're going to win a national title, it can't just be on Colt McCoy's shoulders; our defense will have to be strong all the way through. Our schedule is not as tough as it was this past season but we still have to play a dangerous OU team and also play OSU in Stillwater.

Part 3, if there is one, will be about special teams and misc. crap.

2004 and 2008: The setup to a national title run? Part 1: Offense

TheElusiveShadow — Mon, 11 May 2009 18:43:42 -0000

Longhorn fans were already excited about the 2009 season even before 2008; after an unexpected 2008 run that nearly got us the national title a year earlier than we dared to hope, expectations are incredibly high for this fall. Add to the fact that there are supposed parallels between 2004 and 2008, it's pretty much national championship or bust this season, in many people's eyes.

And the parallels are many and fun to talk about. Like 2004, we had a one-loss season, losing in a close game to a rival. We have a great quarterback who is a Heisman frontrunner for next season. We defeated a Big 10 school in clutch fashion at a BCS bowl. Next season, the national championship will be played at the Rose Bowl. A team that has already been crowned the best is coming back to try to repeat as champions and they are beloved by the media. We have many starters returning. We have an exciting new defensive coordinator (although in his second year now) that comes from Auburn. Greg Davis seems to have figured out an offense to fit the skills of our quarterback. And so on and so forth. It seems the stars are aligned for the Longhorns to hold the crystal ball again.

However, I want to look more at the two teams themselves rather than the circumstances. I want to see where 2004 had question marks and how they answered them en route to that legendary finish at the Rose Bowl, and I want to compare that to where our current team has question marks. I also want to compare their strengths and the roadblocks along the way. This is not going to be some super in-depth football analysis, which is probably beyond me anyway; I am just curious to see how each team compares both statistically and stylistically.

Small request: Hopefully somebody less lazy than me can do a statistical analysis using The Boy's (from Rock M Nation) method, which would be way more interesting and useful than this :).

I'll start with the offenses.

Quarterbacks:

	Vince Young	Colt McCoy
Comp.	148	332
Att.	250	433
Comp%	59.2	76.7
Yards	1849	3859
YPA	7.4	8.9
TD	11	34
INT	12	8
Rating	128.37	173.74
Rush Att.	167	136
Rush Yds.	1079	561
YPC	6.46	4.13
Rush TD	14	11

This doesn't really tell us anything new. Colt is the better passer, Vince is the better runner (duh). I don't think Vince's numbers are bad except for his TD-Int ratio, which is roughly 1-1 while Colt has an outstanding 4-1 ratio. Colt does better in every single category and by a large margin, although he did have the luxury of having better receivers.

The biggest difference between these two situations is the maturity level of each QB. Vince was still viewed as raw and as possessing a lot of unfulfilled potential at the end of 2004. Colt, however, is now viewed as a very mature college QB who is not expected to do much more than he did (in fact, many people expect him to do slightly worse, numbers-wise). The huge question mark for the Horns in 2004 revolved around Vince's arm and if he could improve his passing, while Colt has already seemed to answer his critics. Vince sure answered his the following year; he upped his comp% to 65%, he improved his TD-Int ratio to better than 2-1, and he became the first and only player to pass for 3000 yards and rush for 1000.

What does this mean? On the one hand, we sure feel good that we have one of the best college players in the game quarterbacking our team. On the other hand, we certainly cannot expect a jump that we saw from Vince from 2004 to 2005, since we, well, arguably just saw it this season for Colt from 2007 to 2008. It depends on what you want, I guess; before 2005, we were uncertain with Vince's passing but excited with the possibilities, knowing that an other-worldly talent like him would be simply unstoppable if his passing game matured (which it did, and he was). With Colt, we are very comfortable with him, but we also have a good idea of what he can and can't do. That's not saying he can't improve; I'm sure he will, particularly in the downfield passing game, but we're not thinking, "If only Colt does this, he'll be an unstoppable freak of nature."

Nonetheless, we have to feel pretty darn good with this position; I'm not expecting Colt to have the numbers he did this season, since I hope a dip in his completion % means our downfield passing game has matured and I hope our RB's can take a load off his shoulders. But we have one of the best college QB's hands down, and while the situations differ between 2004 and 2005, the strength of this position will similarly give us a great chance to win it all. Although it would be nice if Colt did not have to be our leading rusher next season...

Runningbacks

	Benson	McGee	Ogbonnaya	Whittaker	Johnson	2008 Total
Attempts	326	88	74	64	75	301
Yards	1834	376	373	284	335	1368
YPC	5.63	4.27	5.04	4.44	4.47	4.54
TD	19	4	4	0	12	20

This is a difficult comparison because, like we all know, we had no feature back this past season. So it's pretty much four against Cedric Benson... and Benson still wins. He gained nearly 500 yards more than all of them combined, took 25 more carries, averaged over a yard more per carry, and nearly scored as many touchdowns. At the very least, we know Chris O. was a much better receiver than Benson ever was. However, add Vince Young to the equation, and we can see that 2004 had a very potent rushing offense, as it would continue to be in 2005.

The obvious question mark from '04 to '05 was that Benson was one of the key departures from that 2004 team. We lose only Ogbonnaya this season, and while his contributions were unique and much appreciated, it's not like his production as a runner is hard to replace. In that regard, we do not have as big of a departure to deal with, but neither do we have a monster like Vince Young or gamebreakers like Ramonce Taylor returning.

Interestingly enough, 2005 solved the lack of a feature back problem with a similar runningback by committee, but it was far more successful than what we saw this past season. While our rush offense was more spread out, it didn't miss much of a beat with Vince Young leading and Charles would have had over 1000 yards had he not hurt his ankle.

Despite us not losing anyone of the caliber of Cedric Benson, 2009's rushing attack if far more of a question mark than 2005's. I think we will have to continue this committee approach, and it will be interesting to see if we can have more success. Like 2005, we have a freshmen RB coming in that we are curious about, and we are hopeful Whaley can do what Charles did his freshman season. If not, while I do not believe it is realistic to expect a rush offense anything like 2005's, I am cautiously optimistic that we will see significant improvement here. I'm putting my money on McGee (sorry, not the mythical Fozzy creature) to earn most of the carries unless Whaley comes in and surprises everyone.

Of course, many people will point to the offensive line as the big reason why these rushing attacks are so different. I'll look briefly at them.

Offensive Line

I won't say much here, but like 2004, we will be returning most of our offensive line. Unlike that team, our offensive line is not as decorated. We have a good pass-blocking line but our problems in the run game are well-documented.

I don't remember any major questions concerning our offensive line going into the 2005 season; our OL was always talked about as a great strength of our team. This season, while we are comfortable with our O-line, we also have a lot of reservations. In this regard, we unfortunately don't seem to be on the level of 2004, as Benson's superior numbers above obviously have to be partially credited to the offensive line. BUT, we are returning everyone except Dockery, which hopefully counts for something. We have some guys who haven't had the success we expected of them thus far, and hopefully we will see a big jump there.

Wide Receivers/TE

2004

	Tony Jeffery	David Thomas	Bo Scaife	Limas Sweed
Rec.	33	25	26	23
Yards	437	430	348	263
YPR	13.24	17.2	13.38	11.43
TD	3	5	2	0

2008

	Quan Cosby	Jordan Shipley	Brandon Collins	Malcolm Williams
Rec	92	89	35	17
Yards	1123	1060	430	304
YPR	12.21	11.91	12.29	17.88
TD	10	11	3	3

As the rushing stats are lopsided to favor 2004, so are the receiving stats. Quan Cosby nearly outdoes the top 4 receivers in 2004 by himself, and his stats are basically matched by Shipley's. It's similar to the RB situation in 2004 in that we lose a great player in Quan Cosby but nonetheless have less of a question mark than 2005 did in this area. The '05 team lost only Tony Jeffery, but nobody knew who would step up. We just lost Quan Cosby but we have Collins and Kirkendoll to go along with the obvious return of Jordan Shipley.

There is one similar situation, and that is Malcolm Williams and Limas Sweed. Neither did a whole lot in their first season despite showing flashes of potential. Both are big, tall receivers who can leap after the ball and beat defenders deep. If Williams can progress as Sweed did, I'll be happy. I know many people (strangely, to me) are very critical of Sweed, but when the guy was healthy, I don't think anyone can doubt he was a very dangerous deep threat that was very productive. Williams progression can mean wonders for this offense and maybe even help out our run game as he stretches the field.

However, while this past year's team had far superior receiver production, we have to unfortunately take a look at the tight ends. The 2004 team had both Thomas and Scaife, and while Scaife was to leave, Thomas came back and had a great year in 2005. With the loss of Irby, we had atrocious TE play and we still have no idea who is going to step into that role since Irby is unlikely to come back until much later. For a coordinator who loves to use his TE like Davis, this is a BIG difference between our team going into 2009 and 2004 going into 2005.

Conclusion

Let's break it down like this:

2004 to 2005 strengths:

Great O-line
Freak of nature QB
Good tight end
Big play threats (like Ramonce)

2008 to 2009 strengths

Strong pass blocking
Robo QB
Strong receiving corps.

2004 to 2005 question marks:

WR production: Answered; Billy Pittman and Limas Sweed stepped up, and we even had Ramonce Taylor.
Vince Young's passing: Answered; led the NCAA in passing efficiency up until the bowl season
Replacing Cedric Benson: Answered; VY was VY, and Charles had a great freshman year and Taylor also contributed here

2008 to 2009 question marks:

RB production: We have experienced backs and a talented freshmen coming in. I'm hopeful. Finding a 3rd down back to replace Chris O. will be tough, but I think that is less important than finding more consistent rushing production.
OL run-blocking: Again, experienced guys coming back and an emphasis on the run game in the spring. Hopeful again.
TE: Uh... troubled. We'll see on this one; hopefully Matthews is ready to step in.
Replacing Cosby: I'm very optimistic about Malcolm Williams, and Shipley and the others have the quickness to sometimes go deep or turn a short pass into a long gain.

We are different animals; one was primarily a rush offense that was more opportunistic in the passing game in looking for big plays, while the other is a controlled passing offense. However, I like how our team looks; any championship team needs to answer its critics and fill the holes in its game. Sometimes, Longhorn fans look back on that 2005 team like it was just perfect and made that way, but it too had legitimate question marks going into that season that it had to find ways to answer. When I look at the uncertainties on this team, I'm mostly optimistic that we have the tools to deal with them. And that's why my departing wisdom to my younger peers as I graduate is that they need to go get season tickets and prepare for an exciting fall.

Because of Superman wearing #10, it seems the potential for that 2005 team was far greater than what we have now, but I like our #12 and the steadiness he brings, and if he has anywhere near the season he had in 2008, we will be right in the thick of things. I think the offenses are actually pretty different, but we have enough similarities in returning starters and in quarterback leadership that I am comfortable with the comparisons going beyond the amusing circumstantial ones listed at the beginning.

I'll try to look at defenses later, which will probably have less to do with numbers.

Robison wants to make the Olympics in shot-put

TheElusiveShadow — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 06:44:21 -0000

Robison wants to make the Olympics in shot-put

Seems like our very own and very athletic Brian Robison still wants to do shot-put. Hopefully it does not interfere with his football career, although he does specifically say football comes first.

Quick Reactions: Spring Game

TheElusiveShadow — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 22:13:00 -0000

I went to the scrimmage today, and I'll just jot down a few quick thoughts. I may try to give something deeper later, but I'm sure either PB or Big Roy will do that. It's hard to tell much in these games because one unit's good play can be construed as the other's bad play, and it was certainly hard to try to look at several things at once (hopefully I can get a recording of the game and watch it again), but I think there are a few things that can still be gained from this.

I like what I saw in the secondary

This unit already had hype and it might have more so after this scrimmage. Both coverage and tackling looked pretty good. Earl Thomas got himself a pick-6 and he also made a great play on special teams running down Malcolm Williams. Christian Scott looked fast and physical, as did Aaron Williams. I have no major complaints. We did give up a 4th and 17, but to be fair, Colt threw that into a fairly tight window.

McGee looked the best out of the RBs

Fozzy started out well but couldn't get much going after that, while Newton and Hills were fairly mediocre. I thought McGee looked very quick and decisive and he ran with power. He did screw up by dropping an option toss, but... it's just spring, I guess. To Fozzy's credit, I thought his TD run was a very impressive display of vision and quick feet.

Run game is still a big question

While I liked McGee, we still don't know much about how the run game is going to look. Of course, this is only the spring scrimmage, and we didn't even have Cody Johnson, but we still saw a several no gains, 1-2 yard gains, or losses.

John Chiles got nothing thrown his way

Bummer. I thought he got open a few times but that's the life of a receiver. I can't tell how much of an impact he can make there, but I'm still very optimistic.

Receivers look like a strong unit

We had some ugly dropped balls, but overall, I thought the unit looked good. Collins made some good catches and showed good speed and quickness on a reverse, while Malcolm Williams continually looks like a future star. I would have liked to see more out of Buckner, while Kirkendoll was okay.

I didn't see anything out of our TEs

I need to watch this game again, but I can't really say much about how our tight ends looked because I don't really remember. Hopefully, that's just me not seeing and not because they generally didn't do anything worth praising. Edit: I remember now some dropped balls. Sigh. We miss you, Irby, and I would have loved to see Grant out there.

Linebackers looked pretty solid

I was mainly just paying attention to Robinson here, and I thought Robinson was very active and covered well, and he made some solid tackles. I like the 4-2-5 look and I feel pretty good about our back seven.

Sherrod Harris threw the ball poorly

I probably don't need to elaborate much more than that. He also didn't scan the field with good vision and also hesitated too much. He's a good athlete and made some nice moves with his feet, but needless to say, we'll be very, very afraid if Colt McCoy ever went down. Gilbert is just a freshmen and Harris can't throw accurately. This game, he even got safetied, but he got lucky since the ref didn't see him get tagged. On another sack, if it was a real game he would have been blown up because he totally didn't see it coming. Obviously, he needs to work on his pocket instincts a bit more as well. At the least, I'll give him a pass on his interception since the receiver dropped that into the hands of the defender.

I'm not a big fan of the rugby punts

Sorry, Tucker. Nothing against you, but I just don't like it, and we saw a couple crummy ones.

We have exciting returners... and perhaps mistake prone-ones

We can see why Mack chose to entrust Quan with the returning duties even though we had other players who were better returners. We saw some good returns out of Malcolm Williams, Aaron Williams, and even Deon Beasley, and then we saw some muffs by Kirkendoll and Earl Thomas that resulted in turnovers. Thomas' muff was pretty funny as he juggled the ball right into a walk-on's hands, but of course, it wouldn't be that funny if that was a real game. I'm not sure what to do with Shipley; I think that he takes care of the ball AND gives us explosive returning, but I'd rather not risk our best receiver. Perhaps Shipley can stick with punt returning to make sure we catch those things and leave Aaron Williams and Malcolm Williams for kickoffs.

D-line looked decent

I need to re-watch the game to look at the D-line more closely, but overall, I thought they did fairly well. They didn't dominate or anything, but they got some good penetration and after the beginning part of the game they made running the ball inside pretty difficult. Did Kindle get his number changed? Can't recall seeing him. Houston looked pretty good, I thought, and drove up the middle into Harris' face a couple times.

Hunter Lawrence didn't kick well, but he made a heck of a tackle

Lawrence missed a FG and was short on some kickoffs (granted, it was breezy), but I'll give him major props for coming seemingly out of nowhere and making an impressive tackle on Aaron Williams, who potentially could have turned that into a long return. Very impressive, and we all got a good laugh out of it.

Short yardage without Cody Johnson = not scary

McGee can run it tough inside, but obviously, we'd much rather have Cody Johnson. When we got near the goalline it often seemed like we just couldn't go anywhere.

Still need to work on deep passing

Colt's an accurate guy, but he did misfire on some long passes. With a guy like Malcolm Williams, it is absolutely necessary to get some chemistry going on those long balls.

Anyway, players I was most impressed with, for now:

-Earl Thomas, except for his muffed punt
-Christian Scott
-Chykie Brown
-Vondrell McGee
-Aaron Williams
-Malcolm Williams
-Brandon Collins

Four of the players are in the secondary. It's probably unrealistic to expect this unit to be as good as the 2005 secondary this season, but I think they can be hands down our best since those players left us. If I had to choose a winner of this game, I'd say the defense. The crowd often got bored since our offense didn't go anywhere, and while I understand they were only using a pretty basic offense, I'm still happy to see a lot of speed and activity on our defense.

Thoughts? Parking around campus sucks, by the way. It keeps getting worse every year.