SB Nation User Blog: TheElusiveShadow

Eye on the North

TheElusiveShadow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:05:27 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The Big 12 North is messy.

With the team's major hurdles out of the way and a clear path to the Big 12 championship game, it is time to start thinking about who our North division opponent will be. Call it "looking ahead" if you will; I'll just call it confidence.

Unfortunately, it is not a particularly easy task right now trying to figure out the North. Whether you think the North is better than people give them credit for or just really, really bad, there isn't a lot separating each team; no team has been completely eliminated yet. Here are the current standings for the Big 12 North:

Team	Conference	Overall
Kansas State	4-2	6-4
Nebraska	3-2	6-3
Colorado	2-3	3-6
Iowa State	2-4	5-5
Kansas	1-4	5-4
Missouri	1-4	5-4

The following will be a series of quick profiles of each team and their chances to win the North, their key players, and what kind of threat they pose to Texas.

Kansas State

Best wins: 62-14 over Texas A&M, 17-10 over Kansas
Worst losses: 66-14 to Texas Tech, 17-15 to... wait for it... Louisiana Lafayette
Notable players: WR Brandon Banks, DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald, RB Daniel Thomas
Good at: Running the ball, stopping the run, and turnover margin. Kansas State ranks 24th in rushing offense, 20th in rushing defense, and 6th in turnover margin.
Bad at: Passing the ball and stopping the pass. K-State is 105th in passing and 83rd in defending the pass.
In three words or less: Late bloomer. The Wildcats rebounded from their destruction at the hands of Texas Tech to drill Texas A&M, beat Colorado and Kansas, and give OU a decent fight.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 vs. Missouri, 11/21 at Nebraska
Status in North Race; One of two favorites. K-State controls their fate and the game against Nebraska seems likely to decide the North.
Additional comments: In addition to their strengths, receiver Brandon Banks has returned 4 kickoffs for touchdowns (#1 in the nation) and averages 31.35 yards per carry (#6). They put up a surprisingly good fight against Oklahoma.
Threat Level: Low. Their strength is to run the ball, which we're good against, and they can't defend the pass well. Turnovers and special teams scores, like in 2007, would be the most conceivable way they could take down Texas. K-State does have a two game winning streak against Texas and they upset Oklahoma in 2003. Tricky tricky.

Nebraska

Best wins: 10-3 over Oklahoma, 27-12 over Missouri
Worst losses: 9-7 to Iowa State (boy, that was ugly), 31-10 Texas Tech
Notable players: DT Ndamukong Suh, RB Roy Helu Jr., DE Jared Crick, DB Prince Amukamara
Good at: Defense. They rank 11th in the country in total defense.
Bad at: Offense. Not much more to say.
In three words or less: Offensively offensive. The offense threw away the game against Iowa State, couldn't get anything going against Texas Tech, and looked crappy in their win over OU.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 @ Kansas, 11/21 vs Kansas State, 11/27 @ Colorado
Status in North Race; The other favorite. Win out, and they're in. Even if they don't, they have a chance.
Additional comments: Their defense is legit and Suh is a monster. If they had a competent offense, this Husker team would be really interesting.
Threat Level: Medium. Watching Suh ransack OU's offensive line was funny, but it didn't give me pleasant images of our guards and Chris Hall trying to block him. Their defense will be an interesting matchup, but I'm not afraid of their offense at all, which is an abomination to offensive football.

Colorado

Best wins: 34-30 over Kansas, 35-34 over Texas A&M
Worst losses: 23-17 to Colorado State, 54-38 to Toledo. Ouch.
Notable players: RB ~~Darrell Scott~~ Rodney Stewart, WR Scotty McKnight
Good at: Embarrassing teams they're not supposed to beat, like Kansas and A&M.
Bad at: Football. And keeping their most talented players on campus.
In three words or less: Somehow still breathing. This is a team widely considered at one point to be the worst team in the Big 12, yet they stand third place in the North standings.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 @ Iowa State, 11/21 @ Oklahoma State, 11/27 vs. Nebraska
Status in North Race: Believe it or not, if they win out and the chips fall their way, they have a chance to win the North straight up, without even needing a tiebreak.
Additional comments: It's never a good thing when some fans are even proposing the far-fetched legal argument that Hawkins would not be due his buyout if he was fired because he did such a negligent and poor job.
Threat Level: Zilch. I still think this is one of the bottom two or three teams, if not the very bottom team, in the Big 12.

Iowa State

Best wins: 9-7 over Nebraska
Worst losses: 35-10 to Texas A&M, 35-3 to Iowa, 34-8 to Oklahoma State
Notable players: RB Alexander Robinson, QB Austen Arnaud (running)
Good at: Running the football and effort. And eagerly receiving games handed to them on a silver platter.
Bad at: Passing and defense
In three words or less: Valiant, but futile. Iowa State plays hard and it was cool to see their locker room celebration after defeating Nebraska, but they don't have a very strong team.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 vs Colorado, 11/21 @ Missouri
Status in North Race: For them to get in, they obviously need to win out, and they need Kansas State to lose their next two and Nebraska to lose to everyone but K-State. That puts K-State, Iowa State, and Nebraska at 4-4 in the conference. K-State would get shoved aside because of their inferior overall record (6-6 compared to 7-5), and then Iowa State would have the head-to-head nod over Nebraska. I think.
Additional comments: They can beat Colorado, but it is unlikely they'll win out, even against struggling Mizzou.
Threat Level: Zero. As long as we don't turn the ball over eight times (and perhaps even if we did), there's no way we could lose to the Cyclones if by some crazy miracle we see them in Dallas.

Kansas

Best wins: Uh... 44-16 over Duke and 34-7 over UTEP. Hey, Houston couldn't beat UTEP in El Paso.
Worst losses: Choose any of the last four.
Notable players: QB Todd Reesing, WR Desmond Briscoe, WR Kerry Meier, DE Jake Laptad
Good at: Passing the ball
Bad at: Defense, turnover margin, and having confidence in your quarterback.
In three words or less: Sinking. The Jayhawks started 5-0 before being upset by Colorado, and it's been straight downhill from there with three more consecutive losses.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 vs. Nebraska, 11/21 @ Texas, 11/28 vs. Missouri (neutral site)
Status in North Race: Also alive. They need K-State to lose out (including a loss to Nebraska) and Nebraska to lose to Colorado, while Kansas wins out, which includes a win over Nebraska. Their superior overall record at that point would give them the edge in the tiebreaker. Follow?
Additional comments: Perhaps the most disappointing team in the North considering their undefeated start. They have the least chance of winning the North because they are the only team playing Texas in the future.
Threat Level: Very low. If we beat them (and we should), they're out of the North race anyway, so that's that.

Missouri

Best wins: 37-9 over Illinois, and... 36-17 over Colorado
Worst losses: 41-7 to Texas, 40-32 to Baylor
Notable players: QB Blaine Gabbert, WR Danario Alexander, LB Sean Witherspoon
Good at: Passing offense and rushing defense.
Bad at: Rushing offense and passing defense. And staying healthy (Gabbert).
In three words or less: "What if" team. If Suh never landed on Gabbert's ankle, Missouri may have beaten Nebraska and even Oklahoma State. Instead, they're tied for last in the division.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 @ Kansas State, 11/21 vs. Iowa State, 11/28 vs. Kansas (neutral site)
Status in North Race; The Baylor loss hurt, but they're still alive in the same way Kansas is. If they win out (which includes a game against K-State), K-State loses their other game against Nebraska, and Nebraska loses their other two games, then Mizzou wins the North. Isn't this fun?
Additional comments: They have a better shot than Kansas since Texas isn't coming up for them, but it still isn't a very good one.
Threat level: Very Low. We know we're much better than they are.

Head Spinning...

That was fun. Hopefully by next week, somebody is eliminated and we can narrow this list down appropriately. It will be an interesting stretch run for the North. At the moment, I think Nebraska will be the one we'll see in Dallas, although I understand many Texas fans want to see Kansas State for some "revenge." Either way, we will be heavily favored against any North opponent, and as long as we take care of ourselves, they should not get within a couple scores of the Horns. Of course, for all we know Nebraska could thrash everyone by 30+ the next three games and scare the crap out of us by the end. We'll see.

The State of... the BCS? A Discussion on Margin of Victory As Part of the Computers

TheElusiveShadow — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:18:59 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

"We need to score one more to get this margin under 30! Wait, does it matter?"

Browse more photos »

What do I do when I'm bored? Other than play Street Fighter II on my Super Nintendo emulator (your nerd jokes can't hurt me, I'm proud of it), I think about the Horns, the BCS, and football in general. I read what I can, write a few things, and even re-watch games, much to the detriment of my fall studies. Because I retain the status as a contributing author, I will subject the community to more of my thoughts before PB pulls the plug on my ramblings.

Speaking of Street Fighter II, I must say that it is pretty satisfying to whip the opponent without getting touched to earn a "Perfect" from the announcer (or a "flawless victory" from you Mortal Kombat losers). "Perfect" means you totally destroyed the other fighter, and your reward is a mountain of bonus points. In fact, the more health you have and the more time you have left when you win a round, the more total points you get. Thus, if a player were to go undefeated in all 12 matches and win quickly and impressively, he can expect to be high in the score rankings, as opposed to some lucky bozo who had to go to Round 3 in every match and squeak by while getting bloodied up. It doesn't matter if Player 2 was undefeated too; Player 1 won with dominance, and therefore, he has a better score and is the better Street Fighter player. Sounds perfectly logical, right?

In yo face, Guile.

But wait, says Player 2. He played on Hard difficulty, while Player 1 played on Medium. The fact that Player 1 dominated Medium difficulty is much less impressive than him navigating Hard difficulty without a loss. As they argue, a third player enters and says triumphantly that while he lost one close match, the fact that he played on Hardest difficulty and finished the game means he's the superior player. Player 2 balks at this and says that there is no material difference between Hard and Hardest, while Player 1 shouts that it doesn't matter what difficulty he played on: He lost! The three players bicker endlessly before bedtime, at which time they quietly wonder why they don't have girlfriends.

Where am I going with this? Well, I'm sure I don't need to tell you that this hypothetical nerd debate sounds frighteningly similar to common BCS arguments that rage among fans and pundits. Arguably, no other topic is as controversial as the dreaded phrase "style points," an ambiguous term that is related to strength of schedule, margin of victory, offensive statistics, and almost anything else fans want to include. College football fans will generally agree that teams need to play well against both good and bad competition to warrant consideration among the nation's best, but they disagree mightily on what constitutes "playing well." The addition of "objective" computers really hasn't helped ease these debates, and they've arguably made them worse.

Among the many factors people consider, I want to focus on the issue of margin of victory (although that naturally is tied to strength of schedule), a controversial metric used to attempt to separate teams high in the rankings of the BCS. I'll discuss the utility of margin of victory (henceforth MoV), its flaws, and then I'll propose some tentative, general ideas on how it can possibly be added back into the computers in reasonable way. This is just a thought exercise, as I do not expect any such changes to the BCS, but it is something fun to think about.

The (Un)Reliability of Margin of Victory

MoV is one of those factors that seem easy to interpret on the outset, which is why many analysts love to appeal to it. It's just basic arithmetic, which is "objective," correct? Uh, not quite. While almost any voter or power poller considers MoV, how one applies it to his rankings may differ widely. What looks like a simple consideration turns into yet another ambiguous statistic upon closer inspection. There are probably three main reasons for this:

Strength of Schedule - The most obvious is the strength of schedule. Beating UTEP by 50 is not the same as beating USC by 50. I think most would agree with that. However, is beating Toledo by 45 the same as beating Texas A&M by 21? Is thrashing Ohio State, say, 56-0 the same as beating Florida 10-7? Now that's where things get really tricky.
Running Up the Score/Garbage Points: Normally, when we look at a three score victory in the box score, we naturally assume an easy win for the victor. However, this is not always true; Iowa's recent, 18-point victory over Indiana is one such game where the final score does not do justice to the competitiveness of the entire game. Similarly, if we see a 10 point win, we might think it was a close game, but it may be that the winning team was up by 24 the entire game and only two, meaningless touchdowns on the last two drives of the loser made the score more respectable.
Difference in Scoring Pace: While the MoV is equal, a game that is 21-0 is not quite the same as a game that is 56-35. The first game features a shutout, which some voters love, while the second features tons of points, which other voters love. There is, at least, some sort of difference between these two games.

These reasons are important to discuss because they not only can make the MoV ambiguous, they can make it downright misleading. If a team is trying to look better than how they actually did, they might run up the score for some meaningless field goals or touchdowns to fool those who just look at the final score (and computers would just look at the final score). Ditto for teams who are way behind and try to make the score more respectable with garbage points. In Ole Miss' first game, for example, Houston Nutt intentionally ran up the score to hide the fact that the Rebels were in a dogfight against not-so-mighty Memphis for much of the game. Similarly, if a team wins 56-0, it looks nice even though the game was played against a sorry FCS opponent. If the hypothetical 21-0 and 56-35 games are looked at as equal, it does not do justice to the defense of that first game that earned the shutout or perhaps the offense in the second game for being so prolific. As you can see, while many, like Dr. Saturday, think removing MoV from the computers was a stupid idea, it is easy to see the concerns about having computers, which do not watch games, using such a potentially misleading statistic. Even if you don't care a lick about the potential sportsmanship ramifications, these are powerful arguments against using MoV.

However, most viewers understand that there is at least something to be gleaned from a big win. Elite teams will bury inferior competition and even whip good competition from time to time. Most Texas fans will say that thrashing Oklahoma State in Stillwater 41-14 earned Texas some serious respect. Without a doubt, Oregon fans (and by extension, Boise State fans) will make a big deal out of the Ducks not only for defeating USC, but for hammering them by 27. Likewise, most people (and even some Iowa fans) will say that Iowa barely surviving against Northern Iowa is a legitimate point to bring up, as is their close game with Arkansas State. This is simply an intuitive grasp of what happened in those games, and many people argue that this aspect needs to be reflected in the computers in one way or the other. In other words, the computers should not just take into account wins and losses, but how the teams actually looked on the field, which is at least partially seen in MoV. Just as not all wins and losses are equal based on SoS, neither are all wins or losses equal based on MoV.

Solution?

Personally, I was at first in favor of eliminating MoV from the computers; I felt that it was much too misleading a factor for the computers. If MoV is to mean anything, I felt that the voters, who make up 2/3 of the BCS formula, would be enough to take MoV into account. Unfortunately, the voters do as poor or poorer of a job processing MoV than a wooden computer might, many of whom fail to closely watch games and simply rely on box score stats. Since we're stuck with the computers for the foreseeable future (much to whills' displeasure), I have thought of some ways to potentially add MoV back into the computers while minimizing the chance of deceptive scores skewing the results. I'm not a programmer so I'm not even going to pretend to know how to actually program these into the computers; these are just general concepts that could be useful.

Cap the MoV - I think most would agree that winning by 35 and winning by 45 is not materially different. This is a very simple thing to do that would be a good start, but it definitely would not prevent teams from running up the score to reach that number or trying desperately to score garbage points to get under the threshold.

Track "Close Game" Stats - At Rock M Nation, Bill C. uses categories called "close game %" and "close game stats." He defines a close game as one that is within two scores, and "close game %" tracks what percent of the entire game was within that margin (if a game was within two scores for only 15 minutes, the game was only 25% close), while "close game stats" are the actual offensive and defensive statistics he tracks within that time frame. This can be very helpful in discarding what are "garbage" points and statistics and what are numbers that actually made an impact on the game. For example, when discussing the Missouri-Texas game last year, Bill C. makes this observation:

So what happens if you're, say, Carl Edwards, and you have a mishap on the track in Lap 1 of a race? Your car is able to keep going, but you end up laps behind. You try to drive well the rest of the race, but it just doesn't matter because your day ended in the first minute, and the next three hours are just a formality. This game is why my 'close game' designation was created. While the overall stats tend to say something, the 'close game' stats are what count. The overall stats say this was an offensive shootout, with Texas just having more success in the end. The 'close game' stats say this was never a game, not even for one second. (emphasis mine)

And regarding close game %:

This game was also why I do the "% close" number. Penn State ended up beating Michigan by a bigger margin than Texas did over Missouri. But PSU-Mich was 80.0% close (i.e. 80% of the plays took place while the game was within two possessions). UT-MU wasn't even 30% close.

We might quibble what constitutes a "close game" or not, but I think the use of this concept could go a long way in weeding out the meaningless points that teams can put up. Taking this and the MoV cap together, if you and your opponent are within one score all game but you run up the score at the end to hit a 21 point lead, the close game % would basically neutralize those points and compute the game as it really was: A close game. In a similar vein, if you rush out to a 28 point lead and coast, and the opposing team scores two touchdowns in the waning moments of the fourth quarter against your backups, the close game stats would still register a blowout.

Differentiate MoV among different competition: I am unsure if the computers already did this before; in any case, it seems obvious to reward blowing out a good team more so than blowing out a terrible team. Beating an FCS opponent by the threshold of 35 (or whatever it is deemed to be) would be pretty negligible; dominating another Top Ten team, however, could earn a team some decent points.

Track Offensive and Defensive Advanced Statistics: Again, I will draw from Bill C.'s excellent Beyond the Box Score methods. One good way to properly reward and punish teams for on-field performance is to track efficiency, explosiveness, etc., more so than just bare statistics. Thus, while a team might have a large MoV, they may still get punished for playing poor defense or bad offense. This is a good way to treat different games with the same MoV in a more accurate manner. This, of course, is also checked by the close game stats, which would minimize the impact of stats gained in garbage time.

Conclusion

Perhaps whills is right that the best change the BCS could make right now is to eliminate the computers and expand the voter base. It's not going to happen, so if we're stuck with these machines, we might as well attempt to closer simulate the act of watching games by using advanced metrics along with MoV to help them differentiate better between games, and therefore, teams. Perhaps, then, the computers can actually help us answer questions such as, "Did Boise State dominate Oregon, or did both teams just suck it up and Oregon sucked worse?", "How good are Iowa's and Cincy's wins?", and, perhaps even retroactively, "So... who really deserved to win the Big 12 tiebreaker last year?" In any case, I know this much; MoV matters, but it is so susceptible to being skewed that I just can't endorse applying it robotically, either by a computer or by a human. If it's going to be in the computers, it needs some serious checks.

Poll

Should the computers be allowed to use MoV again?

Running Game Explosion: Yes, VY Deserves Credit Too

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:48:44 -0000

When watching NFL Live yesterday, Trey Wingo was going through the highlights and was complimentary towards Vince. Merrill Hoge, the idiot clown that he is, clearly was displeased that the Titans won with VY starting, sarcastically noting that the reason the Titans ran so much, and so well, was because Vince was in (implying that the Titans didn't trust him to throw). It is also worth mentioning that when Wingo noted that even Hoge would have to compliment Vince's touchdown throw, Hoge remained silent, while Dilfer agreed that it was a great throw.

This post, however, is not about Hoge per se, whom we all know is a moron regardless of how you feel about VY. This post is about the running game and some people's, including Hoge, inability to see the positive impact Vince Young has had, and can potentially have, for Tennessee's ground attack.

Vince Young critics commonly disparage his winning record by pointing out that the Titans are a run-first team with a very unimaginative offensive philosophy (for good or for ill). In other words, Young is "hidden" from the gameplan because he is a liability and the Titans avoid using him by simply running the ball, and running it again. What they fail to see is that Vince Young's very presence has a positive effect on the run game, and if used more effectively by Fisher, can be even more so.

This attitude can be seen in many people's reaction to the Titans' win over the Jags. Even those in the national media were trying to minimize Vince Young's effect on the game because Tennessee ran for over 300 yards; basically, any quarterback can win a game when their team rushes for 300 yards, right? What this fails to notice is that Vince Young was one of the reasons why the running game was successful on Sunday. Consider Chris Johnson's two long touchdown runs:

1. On third and 6, Young sidesteps the pressure and finds Kenny Britt for a big third down completion. Shortly after, Chris Johnson runs for a 54 yard touchdown. With another quarterback, like Collins, this is a sack and that run never happens.

2. As noted by me on the live game thread and Superhorn's post, Johnson's 89 yard touchdown run was influenced by Young's presence as a runner, causing several Jacksonville defenders to pause for a split second. While Johnson obviously deserves the majority of the credit for this play, there's nothing controversial about pointing out that the defenders' hesitation aided his cause.

With Collins in, that 54 yard touchdown doesn't happen and the 89 yarder might have just gone for the first down, and who knows what would have happened then. That's 143 yards rushing and two touchdowns that Young's mobility helped produce. It is way, way too simplistic to look at the box score stats and think, "Well, Chris Johnson exploded for 228 yards, so even Collins would have won that game too."

Back in 2006, when his critics said the same things, they failed to realize that the Titans' average rushing output more than doubled when Vince Young took over the starting job. While the college game is different, all of Texas' runningbacks enjoyed a healthy boost in their YPC when they were playing with Vince, and it's not like Travis Henry did anything after leaving Tennessee (granted, a lot of that had to do with his off-field stupidity).

I don't think Vince Young will ever be a QB like Manning and throw for bunches of yards and touchdowns. He will still make his mistakes, and I actually expect somewhere around the neighborhood of ten interceptions on his part before season's end. However, Fisher would do well to expand his thinking and take full advantage of what Vince can open up in the run game. I often call Fisher the Jim Tressel of the NFL; a successful coach who unfortunately has an outdated offensive philosophy (I encourage you to read Chris Brown's evisceration of Jim Tressel's poor use of Terrelle Pryor against USC). If he's willing to take more advantage of Vince's mobility, such as using the read option and getting Vince outside on boots, Young can make that Tennessee rushing attack even more dangerous.

And what does a better rushing attack give you? Well, it can also help make your defense look better; that was one of the few things Hoge said right on Sunday when talking about the New York Giants, saying that they needed to get back on track with Jacobs and the run game to help out their defense.

I've discussed the NFL's false sense of "pure football" and their close-mindedness regarding different offenses before, which is another topic altogether. Even given that, Fisher would be foolish to avoid the read option as a viable play in certain circumstances.

The Titans are not finishing better than 6-10 in my estimation (sorry), but if there's a silver lining, it's the opportunity to create a coherent offense that accentuates VY's influence on the run game.

The State of Oklahoma: See Ya Next Year, Okies

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:53:52 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

"Good luck trying to beat me next year, too."

Browse more photos »

Not much to say here, is there? We avoided the early hole and ended the game in the first half. The defense more than doubled Zac Robinson's interception total, even if Chykie probably should have knocked his INT down, Jordan Shipley easily won the battle with Perrish Cox, and Colt McCoy was efficient and effective. The fact that we throttled the best offense we'll probably see until the bowl season was quite encouraging.

The Pokes still have an mathematical shot at the Big 12 South title, but I doubt they are seriously considering that possibility. The Houston loss is now very costly; a one-loss Okie State would have been a good candidate for a BCS at-large berth, but even if they win out (and I'm inclined to think they'll lose to Oklahoma anyway), it is unlikely they're getting a BCS selection. Next year, they can say goodbye to some key players and it's back to obscurity.

For those curious about their losses next year, here's a list of key players moving on:

Offense:

LT - Russell Okung
WR - Dez Bryant (already gone)
QB - Zac Robinson
RT - Brady Bond
C - Andrew Lewis
LG - Noah Franklin
RB - Beau Johnson
RB - Keith Toston

Defense:

CB - Perrish Cox
S - Lucien Antoine
LB - Donald Booker
LB - Patrick Lavine
LB - Andre Sexton
DT - Derek Burton
DT - Swanson Miller
DE - Jeremiah Price
CB - Terrance Anderson

Contributing returners

Offense:

RB - Kendall Hunter
WR - Hubert Anyiam
WR - Dameron Fooks
WR - Josh Cooper
TE - Wilson Youman
RG - Lane Taylor

Honorable mention: RB Jeremy Smith

Defense:

DE - Ugo Chinasa
DE - Richetti Jones
DT - Shane Jarka
LB - Orie Lemon (injured this year)
S - Victor Johnson
S - Markelle Martin

And.... that's about it

There are several things worth mentioning. First and foremost, their offense will be losing a ton of key players, particularly along the offensive line. They have some decent receivers and Hunter returns along with promising freshman Jeremy Smith, but it looks to be a difficult transition for this offense for sure. Their offense will most certainly take a step back from the last couple of years.

Defensively they also lose a lot, but many of the losses are not exactly crippling since they didn't have that great of a defense to begin with. The biggest losses will be their linebackers and cornerback and return man Perrish Cox, but the others aren't departures to lose sleep over.

Thus, what we have is a team that will be losing most of their best players and who will be coming to Austin next year. I think I like Mack's chances to improve to an impressive 13-0 against Okie State in 2010.

And with that, the State of Oklahoma ends for good this year, and we can happily place both games in the win column. Because all we have to do is win to get to the promised land, there's no need to be overly concerned about what Oklahoma State and OU do from now on, but if I had to guess, I think Okie State loses to OU in Norman, beats Tech in Stillwater, and then Oklahoma squeaks one by in Lubbock. I hate to pick OU to win anything, but their defense is second only to ours and much better than the rest of the Big 12's units.

Just for kicks, I'll ask the community how they think Oklahoma State will finish.

Poll

What will OSU's record be at season's end (before the bowl season)?

The State of Oklahoma: Muschamp's Big Test This Season

TheElusiveShadow — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:09:04 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Zac Robinson will be the most dangerous QB we've faced this year.

Browse more photos »

When I was keeping up with the Texas Tech-Texas A&M game through ESPN Gamecast, I could not believe what I was seeing. It was very similar to the feeling when I was watching UTEP run over the Houston Cougars. It made little sense, and I was mixed between shock and laughter. But before I laughed too hard, my memory hearkened back to the end of the disappointing 2007 season, when we watched our defense get gashed for over 200 yards through the air in the first half and nearly 400 in the game by... Stephen McGee. Stephen. Freaking. McGee. Thinking back on my years as a fan, that may have been the most furious I've been at the defense. Ever. I was throwing things at the TV, yelling throughout the house, and thinking dark thoughts about what I'd do if I saw Akina or MacDuff (remember that guy?). I'm not a guy who likes to jump on the "Fire Coach ____" bandwagon, but that game was the final straw in a slew of poor performances, and after that I wanted Akina demoted and MacDuff gone. Please. Anyone else but them. Mack Brown thought so too, and in comes Will Muschamp. And boy, this has turned out to be one of the best moves in Mack Brown's tenure.

Muschamp isn't perfect and not above criticism, but the guy has delivered, and fans can already see the change in attitude and demeanor the defense has undergone in two seasons. Now is his chance to deliver again when we face probably the most balanced offense we'll see this year. Heck, that might extend to the bowl season as well, because it's not like other top teams have been lighting up the scoreboard.

The big story going into the game is the status of both Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. Bryant, as you all know, will not play this game or for the rest of the season. Hunter is expected to return but in a limited capacity. These are no small losses for OSU, but at the least they were lost early in the season and OSU has had time to adjust. Even so, the Pokes will present the stiffest challenge to our defense to date, and I'll list why:

Offensive Line: This is not a dominating unit and they've had their problems in the interior with their new guards, but it will be the strongest line we've seen. They returned three starters with significant experience including left tackle Russell Okung, who will present an interesting matchup against our ends. Behind them, the running game has moved relatively smoothly along and Zac Robinson has only be sacked four times.
Running back depth: I'm not discounting the loss of Hunter, but Keith Toston and Beau Johnson have shown to be capable runners in his place. They are not as talented as the duo from Oklahoma, but their line is better and they are very capable of picking up chunks of yards when given the chance.
Zac Robinson: This year in the Big 12, we've faced Cody Hawkins (yawn), Taylor Potts (first year starter and who is done at Tech), a not-quite ready Sam Bradford for a handful of plays, Landry Jones (RS freshman), and a gimpy Blaine Gabbert (also first year starter). Clearly, Robinson will be the most dangerous QB this defense has faced all year, a three year starter with decent mobility, an underrated arm, and some scrappiness. Robinson is quietly leading the Big 12 in passing efficiency.

There are, though, some issues this offense faces as well. While they've been a fairly successful unit, they are far from the best offensive in the country that some predicted that would be. Again, I feel like making lists, so here's another:

WR depth: Hubert Anyiam has stepped up nicely in Dez Bryant's absence, but Bryant, despite missing the last four games, still leads the team in yards and touchdown receptions. Keith Toston is the third leading receiver at RB. I think they have some decent options such as Dameron Fooks, but this is not a very dangerous receiving group. They miss Pettigrew a lot here. Thus, I'm going to have disagree a little with Brandon Chatman, who was nice enough to answer our BON questions via email.
Lack of competition: If OSU has the best offense we've seen so far, we definitely have the best defense they've seen by a long shot. This is a team that, despite scoring 33 on Missouri, left a lot of points on the field even with a huge field position advantage throughout the game.
Interior Line: I mentioned this above but it's worth mentioning again. A&M had some success sending pressure up the middle. Our DTs should be able to get some penetration.

This is a solid offense but has obviously lost some explosiveness without Hunter and Bryant. The loss of Bryant hurts the most, as Robinson has had some chemistry issues with his receivers, leading to mistimed throws, inaccurate throws, and some drops. Still, OSU will still take shots down the field via the playaction game, and Anyiam has the size to be a threat.

Misdirection and Screen Game

One thing I've noticed watching OSU against A&M and Missouri is their use of playaction and other misdirection or option type of plays. Sometimes the playaction fake is honestly a bit half-hearted, but with their reputation running the football it is often an important fake nonetheless. Not only that, they like to employ their backs on screens and get their offensive line in the open field to block. In the run game, they will employ the zone-read, although Robinson has kept the ball a lot less and has had limited success on the ground this year. They will also use the option to get Robinson out on the edge.

I'll focus on a couple screen plays for OSU because I think it will be an interesting thing to look for as we try to bring the heat at Zac Robinson.

Against Missouri

Oklahoma State is in a two TE set with Toston in the backfield.

The receiver goes into motion and a handoff is faked to him, causing the linebackers to take a step towards their left.

Keith Toston goes to the flat to receive the screen pass. Notice he has both room and blockers to pick up a nice gain. The play fails because Robinson's pass is poor and it falls on the ground.

Against Texas A&M

This is the first play from scrimmage for Oklahoma State, and this time they have three receivers on the left side of the field. Toston is with Robinson in the backfield.

A receiver, like the play against Missouri, goes into motion, moving back to sweep behind Robinson. The faked handoff is to Toston, but the reverse action still causes the A&M linebackers to take a false step.

On this play, Robinson's pass was good and a couple of good blocks sprang Toston free for a big gain.

Conclusion

Under Muschamp, Texas has proven to be a team that defends the screen well. They will need to continue that this weekend as Oklahoma State seeks to find ways to neutralize the pressure Texas is capable of bringing. Other ways Oklahoma State can neutralize pressure is to rely on playaction, as we also see here, and look for opportunities down the field. This is why the clash between OSU's run offense against our run defense is big. Even though they haven't lit the world on fire on the ground this month, OSU's offense still flows heavily through their runningbacks and they are persistent. If Texas can frustrate the run game, OSU is ill-equipped to simply drop back and fling the ball around against our secondary.

I expect a big day from Lamarr Houston in the interior, and Ben Alexander will be a good option this game to stuff runs up the middle. Robinson has not been that successful keeping the ball on the edge, so at this point it might be a good idea that he should be encouraged to keep the ball on options or zone-reads to see if he can gain good yardage with his legs. Either way, expect the backs to get the ball a whole lot more in those situations.

I'm excited for this game, and I have a lot of confidence that our defense can hold this unit down. Let's take this one in Stillwater en route to the Big 12 title game.

Poll

How many points does Oklahoma State score?

The State of Oklahoma: So How Good is That OSU Defense?

TheElusiveShadow — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:31:10 -0000

After our game against Missouri on Saturday, I've been vacillating between "Oklahoma State is much better than the national media is giving them credit for" and "Oklahoma State is just a good team that has no impressive wins over anyone of note." What is it? After going through their games against Texas A&M, Missouri, and Baylor the last few weeks, I'm still not entirely sure. The Aggies got waxed by K-State of all teams and then turned around and ran over Texas Tech in Lubbock. Gabbert's bum ankle sabotaged Mizzou. The Baylor game was just boring because, well, the Bears aren't any good, and it was difficult to get much out of that. Before that, the Pokes beat a Georgia team that turned out to be very flawed and dropped to a Houston team that shockingly got whipped by UTEP. The toughest stretch of OSU's season begins this Saturday, while ours will end.

It is worth noting that if not for an incredibly lucky tipped ball for a Houston touchdown, Oklahoma State is undefeated and somewhere in the Top Ten mess between #4 and #10. If I had to take a wild guess, they would be behind the Hawkeyes at #5 in the BCS, and the hype for this game would be multiplied tenfold. Of course, that would not be entirely fair to Houston, who shredded Okie State's defense and made the plays to win. Again, what are they? Top ten team disguised in Grandma's clothes or superficially scary team?

This...

...or this?

Either way, the OSU game is a big one for Texas, but it is an interesting question nonetheless. With that in mind, I want to discuss what we can expect to see this weekend, and I'll start with their defense. I'll focus primarily on the Missouri game, a big night game for the Pokes and arguably against the best offense they've seen this year except Houston's.

Mistakes Doom Missouri

When I quickly reviewed the Mizzou-OSU game last week, I gave Oklahoma State a little too much credit holding down the Tiger offense. Don't get me wrong, they deserve their props, but when I had the chance to actually watch the game carefully, it became abundantly clear that Missouri left a mountain of opportunities on the field on offense. Blaine Gabbert, suffering from that bad ankle, mixed great throws with very inaccurate ones, and he missed many an open receiver. The receivers themselves didn't help with some devastating dropped balls, and key penalties and bad special teams gave a huge field position advantage to the Pokes. Also, I felt the playcalling was a bit bizarre at times for Mizzou, who often went to an empty set on short yardage situations with a gimpy QB and also called rollouts and even zone-reads.

The thing is, most of these mistakes were unforced, as Oklahoma State, at least until the second half, dealt minimal pressure with either their base 3 or 4 man rush or even with blitzes. When Gabbert misfired early, it had little to nothing to do with pressure and everything to do with his ankle. I'll enumerate some key mistakes, all of which were in the first half:

-On Missouri's first drive, the Tigers drive to the goalline, but Gabbert lets a ball sail on an open receiver and then a curious QB keeper call goes nowhere (did the Mizzou coaches know the guy can't run with that ankle?) The Tigers settled for a field goal.

-Second drive: The Tigers grabbed some good field position after a 40 yard throw off playaction. Unfortunately, a loss on a run and a false start made it second and 19, but a 15 yard run made it 3rd and 4 shortly after. Gabbert, with no pressure, threw two horribly overthrown balls on third and fourth down to give the ball back to the Pokes.

-Fourth drive: Gabbert underthrew Alexander on a long ball when he had the linebacker Sexton on him (in other words, that could have gone for a large chunk of yards). The underthrow allowed Sexton to grab Alexander's arm before the ball got there, and while he was called for pass interference, the net gain would have been much more than 15 yards had it been a good throw. The drive would end with another overthrown pass from Gabbert with no meaningful pressure, which led to a punt.

-Fifth drive: Gabbert rocketed a pass that was slightly too far ahead, but still catchable, to Jackson. The ball bounced off his hands into Lucian Antoine's, who promptly returned it for a touchdown. Oops. This cost Missouri the early lead.

-Seventh drive: Due to a muffed snap, the Tigers faced a 3rd and 21 deep in their own territory. Gabbert stepped up in the pocket to avoid the rushers and heaved a great throw to Kemp who was looking at a gigantic gain... and he dropped it. The resulting punt set up OSU with great field position and they scored to close the half.

In the second half, despite improved play from the OSU defense (particularly tackling), it was much of the same. An underthrown ball allowed Perrish Cox to get an interception (still an impressive pick, but should have been thrown farther or higher for Danario to leap for), and a disputable holding call cost the Tigers an 88 yard kickoff return. The Tigers had a few more drives into OSU territory that failed due to curious playcalling and more drops and bad throws. It makes it worse when you consider that OSU scored only nine points in the second half despite excellent field position.

The reason I'm listing all this is to show that Missouri hurt themselves more than Oklahoma State hurt them. Bill Young, afraid of the quick passing game from Missouri, stayed in a soft zone coverage most of the night with minimal blitzing. The problem was that they could not generate pressure, but fortunately for them, Gimpy Gabbert could not throw the ball consistently. When the Tigers weren't killing themselves, they moved the ball well, rolling up over 300 yards of total offense in the first half that would have been 400 if not for that huge dropped pass from Kemp.

What Bill Young Will Do

With that in mind, can we expect much of the same from Bill Young's defense? In many ways, yes: As Peter has said before, the proper way to defend our offense is to play a soft shell coverage that pursues and tackles well and dares us to run. Missouri went a little overboard on that which got them killed by Colt, but I would expect something along those lines this Saturday. For example:

Oklahoma State looked like this much of the game. This was the first play from scrimmage and OSU decided they would try to keep everything in front of them and also send only 3-5 rushers per play. This defensive decision allowed Missouri to run fairly well throughout the contest.

This is how the play ended. No pressure and an easy throw for a six yard gain.

What should be most troubling to OSU is their lack of pressure; neither their D-line nor their blitzes put consistent pressure on Gabbert, although it improved some in the second half. This left OSU vulnerable to big plays, and some poor tackling and pursuit by their secondary allowed some good YAC to Missouri's recievers. Here is Danario Alexander's long touchdown catch and run after Missouri's pick-6.

The Cowboys have three down lineman while the Tigers are empty. The Pokes are once again showing zone.

One blitzer is sent, linebacker Donald Booker, but the four man rush gets nowhere near Gabbert.

Alexander runs across the middle while safety Victor Johnson, the bottom right player in orange, lets him go to follow the Mizzou player entering his zone. Unfortunately, his teammate decided to follow him too, and a good throw by Gabbert (still a little high) gets the ball to Alexander.

A poor attempt at a tackle by Thomas springs Alexander free, and a poor angle and missed tackle by Perrish Cox allows him to score.

Conclusion

Oklahoma State's defense is not atrocious and will be among the better ones we have faced so far this season. However, their starting defensive ends, Jeremiah Price and Ugo Chinasa, haven't had the season their fans were hoping for, and their D-line as a whole is not nearly as scary as Oklahoma's. They have some athletic linebackers who can make some plays despite the loss of Orie Lemon, but their secondary is not that great. On the whole, this is a defensive unit not nearly as strong as OU's.

Bill Young is a guy that loves to bring the heat, but I think our own quick passing game will make him more cautious, similar to what we saw against Missouri. The key will be the ability to generate pressure with just four or five guys and to tackle and pursue well after the catch, things they did not do well against Missouri. Also, one thing that helped Missouri this game was the moderate success of their run game, which opened up some playaction passing and kept the LB's a little honest. This would be something Texas needs to do on the road; Fozzy and Cody don't need to combine for 200 yards, but the running game should be open for some steady gains. In other words, our offensive line needs to have a strong game and not start out like they did against Oklahoma or against Texas Tech last year.

Nonetheless, I expect several changes. Seeing the opportunities a hobbled Gabbert had against Missouri, I feel that if Colt sees similar ones, he will convert those opportunities and make OSU pay. Also, we too have a big receiver who can make plays after the catch (Malcolm Williams) and more weapons than Missouri has. Bill Young knows this, so I expect a little more blitzing and a little more complexity to try to confuse and rattle Colt McCoy, as they tried to do last year. Donald Booker, who leads the team in sacks and TFLs, is a good candidate for just that, as is safety Lucien Antoine. The Pokes are going to have to be risk-takers up to a point; I don't think they're good enough at D-line to just sit back and try to get to Colt on a basic 3 or 4 man rush throughout the whole game.

I hope Davis is patient with the run game and is willing to take shots downfield in such a big game, because I believe those chances will be there. If we decide to regress back to relying on Colt McCoy being a robotic passer, we can still win like we did last year, but it's going to be a rather uncomfortable ride.

Poll

How concerned are you about OSU's defense?

Not very much at all. They stink.

11 votes

They're okay but still can't stop us.

229 votes

Terrified. This is OSU, after all.

80 votes

I'm more afraid of what Greg Davis will do.

332 votes

652 votes | Poll has closed

The State of Oklahoma: The Pokes Quietly Keep Winning

TheElusiveShadow — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:41:47 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

"I'm a man. I'm 125."

Browse more photos »

Now that OU's season is currently in the dumps, it is high time for their neighbors in Stillwater to finally get some attention. I thought Oklahoma State would start receiving some talk after starting conference play, but not even a night game against Missouri accomplished that. Nonetheless, the Pokes have just one loss and currently stand at #15 in the BCS rankings, ahead of the team that beat them (Houston) but behind two-loss Virginia Tech. Shrug. I guess Houston can't complain since they got spanked by UTEP of all teams.

The Pokes started conference play with a relatively sloppy win over Texas A&M and a solid dismantling of Missouri last Saturday night. For both contests, they were without Kendall Hunter and, of course, Dez Bryant, who has yet to hear anything back from the NCAA. I'll summarize the games below.

Against Texas A&M: Bullets

Some may argue that this game is meaningless because the Aggies deserve consideration with the likes of Rice after that incredible flop against K-State. Perhaps so. To be fair, though, as much as I dislike the Ags, I'd categorize that as more of a meltdown than an actual display of their abilities; not even A&M is that bad. A&M actually kept this game fairly close throughout, trading scores with the Pokes until OSU finally pulled ahead by 11. The Aggies scored again to cut the deficit to five but never got the ball back.

Bullets, because I'm lazy:

Keith Toston had a strong day, gaining 130 yards on 26 carries. However, Okie State as a whole only averaged 3.5 yards per carry during the game, although Johnson did score twice.
The Pokes continue to be heavily penalized, being flagged 11 times against A&M for a whopping 118 yards. They are averaging an NCAA worst 9.8 penalties per game.
Zac Robinson didn't have mind-blowing stats but he was efficient, throwing two scores and no interceptions.
Okie State was able to create some big plays without Dez Bryant. Robinson had passes for 51, 40, 32, and 27 yards and averaged almost 20 yards per completion.
Oklahoma State generated four sacks while not allowing Robinson to get dropped for one.
Jerrod Johnson was only 22-42 but had three touchdown passes, while Nunchuku... I mean Nwachukwu had 8 receptions for 142 yards.

This was a game Okie State arguably should have won more by; penalties and defensive mistakes kept the Aggies in the game. The Pokes did a good job applying pressure to Johnson and largely won the battle at the line on both sides of the ball. Offensively, it was encouraging for Pokes fans to see multiple 25+ yard completions in the absence of Bryant, although A&M's defense isn't exactly very good. Defensively, they often did a poor job containing Johnson and he was able to create some big plays in the passing game. However, A&M did not have much success running the ball, and after Okie State went up by two scores there wasn't really any doubt they'd win the game.

Mizzou after the jump...

Against Missouri: The Good, The Bad, and The Inexplicable

The Pokes put on a pretty strong performance against Missouri. It's their biggest win since Georgia and sets them up nicely in the Big 12 South race.

The Good

-Zac Robinson once again did not turn the ball over. He was efficient, going 22-35 for 227 yards and a touchdown, and he did some good things with his legs. This is the Zac Robinson OSU needs.

-Hubert Anyiam had a big day with 10 catches for 119 yards. If there's ever a silver lining for the Dez Bryant situation, it's that it forces both Robinson and other wide receivers to create a credible passing game without their star. If and when he comes back, OSU may be all the stronger for it.

-Keith Toston didn't average a lot of yards per carry but gained 91 tough yards on 24 rushes. They would love to have Hunter back but they have enough depth to make the running game work without him.

-Perrish Cox and Victor Johnson did an excellent job on kick returns, helping the Pokes have a big field position advantage all game as noted by Bill C. at Rock M Nation.

-OSU's kicker hit all of his field goals.

-Okie Lite forced four turnovers, including a pick six.

-The Pokes shutout Mizzou in the second half.

The Bad

-Danario Alexander had a big day against the Pokes.

-OSU could not score a TD in the second half.

-Now only Anyiam seems to be a legit threat at WR.

-Missouri had early success, including a 97 yard drive. The Tigers would have possibly built a lead if not for Antoine's pick six.

-OSU only dropped Gabbert once, although they put on decent pressure at times.

The Inexplicable

-Nine penalties. Again.

Slow Improvement

Injuries and a high profile suspension have robbed the Pokes of some potential, but they remain a strong team who has showed noticeable improvement. Anyiam's emergence is good news for a team that needed a receiver to step up alongside Bryant, but unfortunately his suspension almost puts OSU back to where they started for the time being. Johnson and Toston have done a good job holding the fort without Hunter, and Robinson has done a much beter job protecting the football. The tight-lipped Gundy won't say much about Hunter's status, but there are even rumors that he potentially be done for the year. OSU fans better hope that that's just another "horrible internet rumor."

It's kind of a mixed bag defensively. Giving up 31 points to the Ags is not good, but they have shown some big play ability and they held down Mizzou's offense. The linebackers, particularly Booker, continue to play well, while the line has been successful against the run and moderately so against the pass. The secondary can be a bit undisciplined and give up some yards, but the aggressiveness can pay off sometimes.

One thing that needs to stop is their penalties; averaging 10 per game will most definitely cost them a game if they keep this up. They're not all five yard false starts either; the Pokes are 116th in penalty yards too. Basically, that penalty-fest in the Cotton Bowl would be just another game for the Cowboys, which has to be very exasperating for the fans to watch.

This is a very competent team that will pose an interesting challenge. Their defense is not as good as Oklahoma's, but their offense looks far more capable with a stronger line. If Bryant and Hunter make it back by Halloween, they will field the most potent (or at least most balanced) offense we will see all year in the regular season.

The State of Oklahoma: It's a Dusty, Undeveloped Wasteland, In Case You're Wondering

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:43:57 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

And it all came falling down...

Browse more photos »

Last Spring Break, some of my friends wanted to go camping, and they wanted to go to a place relatively remote from civilization. Naturally, they picked Oklahoma, and I tagged along to experience the State of Suck for the very first time. I actually don't have bad events to report from that trip: The camp site was okay and the people there were mostly polite despite the fact that I was proudly wearing my burnt orange attire (hat, pants, and shirt), but that was probably because we seemed run into more people wearing OSU orange than crimson and cream. However, when we went to a nearby Wal-Mart to get supplies, the town felt lifeless and forsaken, a sort of sad place that has nary a hope for better things. It felt like a wasteland, to be honest, which is saying something since I hail from Abilene, TX. There was this dusty, grimey, uneducated, dirty aura about the area. I was glad to leave the place and return to the Lone Star State. As much as I find the prospect of Oklahoma traveling to DKR interesting, I wouldn't want to go north. The game should stay in Dallas.

What a fitting image for Oklahoma's season. The Sooners, with such high national title aspirations before the season, now sit at 3-3. It's almost time to hibernate until next year, because there's not much left to recover after the Horns finally took the Sooners' season off life support. Bye bye.

I, of course, exaggerate a bit. Oklahoma is not yet finished; all it would take is another meltdown from the Horns, as we saw in 2006, for Oklahoma to squeeze into the Big 12 title game. As small a chance as that is, Oklahoma has a decent shot at winning the rest of their games, especially if they continue to play strong defense they played on Saturday.

The Game

First of all, kudos to Scipio Tex and PB for predicting a relatively low-scoring, SEC type of game. I know many Horns fans are hesitant about giving too much credit to Venables and his Sooner defense, considering how painfully woeful Greg Davis' performance was, but the Sooner defense showed that they can be a force. As Scipio Tex noted in their podcast, Oklahoma is coached well to tendency, which makes them susceptible to misdirection but also allows them to obliterate predictable offenses... which, unfortunately, was ours much of Saturday morning, at least in the passing game. Still, it takes good players to execute like that, and Oklahoma made our offense pay for our terrible gameplan.

The Sooners were pretty good to great on all three levels. The D-line had the upper hand on our boys up front all game, although we thankfully began to turn the tide in the second half. Gerald McCoy was difficult for our interior guys to handle, and both Beal and English were good in passing situations. Travis Lewis had a strong game at linebacker and even Reynolds had his moments. I don't think we tested their safeties much at all, but corner Brian Jackson had a pretty good game himself handling Jordan Shipley, although I'm sure he is still receiving flak for allowing Colt McCoy to catch him on his interception. Basically, we had an athletic defense that was drilled to tendency facing a very predictable offense. Fail.

On the other side, their offense wasn't nearly as predictable as ours but pretty much saw similar results due to the mismatches all over the field. Their receivers and their offensive line were the weak points we thought they would be, minus Ryan Broyles' touchdown. Because of that, I do not think Bradford going out was the issue; the issue was that OU couldn't run the ball and couldn't protect their quarterback or give him options. This is just not a very good offense right now. Looking forward to the rest of the season, the defense will keep Oklahoma in games but it will be up to their offense to make sure they keep up with the likes of OSU and Texas Tech (and even KU, which is coming up next).

Random Bits

-Both Cory Brandon and Sam Bradford will be out next week, but there is no word on Bradford's ultimate fate. It is clear he was not ready to play, and it is unfortunate that this may be the end of the road for the guy.

-The refs were bad on both sides during the game. Phantom facemask, phantom pass interference, 30000 reviews... come on now.

-Don't take the DART to the game. Not only does it take too long to get there, it takes too long just to get the heck out of the fair. It's cheap, but if you value time, just drive to the fair and fork over extra cash for parking. Sheesh, that sucked.

Up Next

With the OU game finished, it is time to focus on Oklahoma State. Depending on what happens, I might continue to update the goings-on about Oklahoma, but there's virtually no chance for some three-way tie craziness whatsoever. It is in some ways no longer our concern what happens to OU after this, although we will probably take a special delight if their season completely spirals out of control (unlikely). It is relieving in a sense to get past this part of the schedule unscathed, but part of the fun is the buildup to this great rivalry. For the Sooners, it's "Wait till next year." For us, we have some business to take care of before we look that far ahead. Until then, we bid the Sooners goodbye, and pleasant dreams in your wasteland home and university.

The State of Oklahoma: Obligatory Rundown of the Roster

TheElusiveShadow — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:40:50 -0000

I narrowed the focus a bit on my previous two posts to look at OU's problems at right tackle and the over-aggressiveness of their linebackers and safeties. It seems that now, before evening comes upon us and we eagerly await the morning, is a good time to broadly address the entire team and discuss what players we can expect to see. If you're curious, here are the previews of the Sooners written earlier in the season or in the preseason:

Linebacker and Safeties

QB, RB, WR, TE

Defensive Line

Offensive Line

As noted in the title, I'll try to keep this brief, but heck, I might just ramble along.

Offense

Quarterback: Bradford looked pretty good against Baylor, although not perfect. He was off on some throws, particularly going high, and he did not look comfortable moving around as PB noted in his podcast. Other than that, I thought his arm motion looked the same and he was able to put good velocity on his throws. Ultimately, the problems OU's offense had against Baylor were not his fault. He better be ready to actually do some moving, though; he does not want to be a statue with Kindle and Acho coming after him.

Runningback: Murray and Brown have done relatively well thus far despite some of the struggles of their offensive line. Brown doesn't have breakaway speed but he is a bit more consistent. Murray is dangerous in the open field and is stronger than people get him credit for (probably because he gets hurt a lot), but he doesn't exactly muscle away from tackles. These guys will likely be the key for the Sooner offense; if they can't run, OU is in deep trouble.

Wide Receiver: The big news is that Ryan Broyles is rumored to be returning tomorrow. It is difficult to tell how much this would help. It is unlikely he will be 100%, and one receiver who is not on the talent level of the likes of A.J. Green and Dez Bryant is not going to transform an entire WR corps. Still, he has been by far their best receiver and it is probably a welcome relief to Bradford. Keep an eye on Dejuan Miller, a big, athletic target who has the physical gifts to be dangerous. Other than that, the Sooners have to rely on mediocre production from Caleb, Kinney, and Tennell.

TE: Eldridge is a decent blocker but slow. Hanna is not scary at all.

Offensive line: As discussed in my post about them, Jarvis Jones and his backup Cory Brandon have stunk it up so far. Left guard Brian Simmons is injured, and while he is not a great player, he's been one of the better ones and he is significantly better than his replacement Stephen Good. Good is, well, not good, despite having the requisite physical tools, and I like our DT's against him. At center is Brian Habern, who is a mediocre blocker himself and definitely should not be able to handle our tackles by himself.

Right guard features Tarvarris Jeffries, who began starting against Miami, and he wasn't good against them or Baylor. I specifically remember him whiffing on a block on a rusher who forced a bad throw from Landry Jones, who had a wide open receiver for a big gain. Jarvis Jones had this job against BYU before going to RT, and he was replaced by Tyler Evans for a bit, who is now the backup. No, he's not good either. Finally, there's the overrated Trent Williams, who is functional but not near the All-American greatness he was hyped to be. Our DE's can take him on the edge.

Defensive Line: Very good, but not as good as it was hyped to be and not as deep as it was supposed to be. Beal has been their best player on their entire defense and has 6 sacks. English has been decent but not particularly disruptive by himself. McCoy and Taylor are a very good DT pair, with McCoy as the more dangerous one by far. Taylor is quick for his size and he can get penetration on single blockers, but he's not McCoy. Demarcus Granger has practically disappeared. And "J-Mike?" Who cares.

Linebackers: Discussed already. Ryan Reynolds should not cover anyone except maybe EBS, who shouldn't be going out on routes anyway.

Secondary: Corners are solid in Brian Jackson and Dominique Franks, though they lack depth here. Jackson does not have top end speed and Franks likes to gamble and can have mental breakdowns, such as when he gave up that long touchdown against Miami. The safeties are nothing special. Carter and Proctor can run in a straight line and hit, but that's about it. Both can bite on fakes due to their aggressiveness.

Special teams: Dominique Franks apparently thinks it's a good idea to return punts inside the five, and successes on such returns against Miami and Baylor might encourage him to do that again. While rugby punting largely makes that a moot point, hopefully he has a brainfart in the return game and gives us a nice gift. He is dangerous, though.

Punt coverage is good, kickoff coverage is so-so, and kickoff returning is not concerning. As far as the kickers, their placekicker is okay and their punter is a good actor. That's about it. We should definitely win the kicking game.

That's all, folks

Brief enough? Oklahoma is going to have to establish the run game, which is easier said than done because while our DEs are the ones getting the attention, I think our DTs give us an advantage as well. Lamarr Houston, anyone? On defense, Oklahoma will need a monster day from their line. Our O-line is not elite, and you can expect some plays for loss at the hands of Beal and McCoy. The issue here is depth; if we have a large TOP advantage like last year, it can get rough for the Sooner D in the 4th quarter.

The onus is on Brent Venables to be smart. If he sits back and dares us to run with umbrella coverage, we might have some problems if we can't run the ball. As PB and Big Roy note, if he decides to blitz, that's a bad idea in the long haul.

As far as Wilson, this might be a game where the no-huddle is a bad idea. He's probably going to have to be a bit more conservative than OU fans will like, but I don't expect too many draw plays on 3rd and long anymore with Bradford back.

Hook'em, and OU sucks. We got this.

The State of Oklahoma: OU's Aggressive Linebackers and Safeties. Can We Make Them Pay?

TheElusiveShadow — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 09:27:17 -0000

Forgive my lack of content the last couple of days. I've been busy, but now I'm glad to be able to just focus on the game this weekend.

Let's cut to the chase. PB noted Brent Venables' aggressive style and OU's vulnerability against passes around the middle of the field. With that in mind, I want to focus specifically on the linebackers and safeties for this post and discuss some of the things I saw when I was watching film of the Miami game. In a nutshell, while OU has a good set of linebackers, they can be a bit too aggressive at times and get out of position, leaving the OU defense susceptible to big running plays and/or open passes in the middle. Don't get me wrong; while Reynolds is slow, Clayton and Lewis are pretty athletic and they can make plays. Nonetheless, their aggressive style can be used against them, and I think Miami did a decent job of using misdirection plays to take advantage of this. As far as their safeties... well, they aren't slower than last year's, at least.

Disclaimer: Texas is not going to be running these plays, as far as I can understand. One may question how much use this can be since we will not be in these formations, nor do we do a whole lot of "misdirection," but here's hoping that GD has seen the same things and will have something along these lines.

Anyway, I decided to look at three plays in the Miami game: The 20 yard run, the 50 yard run, and the playaction pass to Epps that iced the game for the 'Canes. They are remarkably similar, as you will see below.

3rd and 1, 20 yard run

This is Miami's second drive, before Harris threw his second interception.

Miami is in the I-formation here with two tight ends. Oklahoma is in their 4-3, with Clayton up at the line of scrimmage over the tight end and Sam Proctor scooting up in the middle.

At the snap of the ball, Reynolds, Proctor, and Lewis move forward. Playing run is here is obviously logical, but that's not what the problem is.

Unfortunately for Ryan Reynolds in particular, this is a counter play. Notice how all three linebackers have their eyes on the fullback. Reynolds begins to move out of position.

At this point, Reynolds is way out of position and has no idea that James has the ball.

Reynolds realizes what's going and tries to come back and make the tackle, but he's too late. You can't see him here since he's on the ground, and James is loose in the secondary for a 20 yard gain.

1st and 10, 50 yard run

This play is very similar so I'll use less pictures.

Again we have two tight ends and a fullback, although Miami is not in the I. Also, Oklahoma is the over 4-3.

After the tight end Tervaris Johnson goes in motion, the ball is snapped and the fullback goes to lead block. Notice that again, all the eyes of the linebackers plus Proctor are on the fullback.

Once again, this was a counter play. I've circled Proctor, Reynolds, and Lewis. Proctor, the bottom left circle, figured out what was going on and tried to recover, but not only did the guard see him coming and move off from his double team to take him out of the play, Proctor overran it anyway. Reynolds is the top left guy and was well out of the play. Lewis got picked up bya block and then it was off to the races for James.

Conclusion

Proctor, Lewis, and Clayton can all hit, and Reynolds is decent. They don't, however, seem great at reading misdirection plays, seeming jumping at the first sign of movement and committing away from their positions. To be fair, they were a bit better against similar counter plays later in the game, although one time James was robbed out of a large gain by a tackle from Jeremy Beal, who is playing very well right now.

We don't have a lot of misdirection in our offense so far; I'm not sure if I would classify our favorite counter play as such. Who knows what GD will do with this, if anything, but these guys will take a false step on a misdirection and give up some yards.

3rd and 6, first down throw to Epps

Same formation as above, for both squads, except the second tight end starts out on the strongside. I've located Epps for you.

The fullback switches sides before the snap and causes the three players in the middle to likewise shift over andl look for the run. Harris fakes the handoff and once again, Proctor, Reynolds, and Lewis commit and have their eyes on James this time. Epps does the ol' falling down trick and slips out.

Proctor has no chance of recovery and this first down pretty much ends the game.

Conclusion

While Dan Buckner should be successful anyway this weekend, using playaction like this on these aggressive players can really open things up underneath the deep coverage. Granted, there's a certain logic here for Oklahoma to play the run aggressively since the "safe" option for Miami would have been to run the ball to guarantee that the clock would keep running. However, they had to know that the pass was a very real possibility to go for the win, and it was a pretty easy throw for Harris since Proctor vacated that area.

This applies to us how?

Uh, good question. Certainly, Buckner can punish OU in the middle of the field, as can Shipley, without the need of "misdirection." Furthermore, it's difficult to fool defenses with a playaction if you can't run the ball well. Still, noting the tendency to be overly aggressive is something GD should do, and if we have plays to exploit that, I expect to see them. Who knows; maybe OU will give us a big play in the Wildhorn, if we see the formation (personally, I'm not too much of a fan of it, but we'll see). Given our struggles against CU, I wonder if OU will even drop Proctor down; even so, Proctor likes to fly to the action and can be beaten when he's deep as well.

On a more general level, this at the least reaffirms to me that I'm not all that worried about OU's secondaries, and I'm not even all that worried about their linebackers. It's their line that concerns me, and I think only they can really beat us. If our offensive line can hold their own, I think that while the LB's will rack up some tackles, we can have a lot of success against this back seven.