SB Nation User Blog: TheElusiveShadow

Nebraska Preview: Offense and Special Teams

TheElusiveShadow — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:26:51 -0000

An Iowa State coach thanks Zac Lee for his gifts.

Whatever consternation Texas fans have for Nebraska's defense, you can take that and multiply it by... well, zero, and apply it to Nebraska's offense. Perhaps that is a bit over the top, but it's no secret that Nebraska's success this year has been mostly due to their solid D. Even with the hiccup against Texas A&M, the burnt orange faithful is confident that the Horns will eat up Nebraska's paltry attempts to score.

Is this confidence valid? As I did for the defense, I'll list some of the offense's generic stats:

Scoring offense (72nd): 25.6 ppg
Rushing offense (67th): 1769 total yards, 4.12 ypc, 18 TD
Passing offense (93rd): 59.9 comp%, 2248 total yards, 7 ypa, 15 TD, 9 Int
Total offense (93rd): 334.8 yards per game, 5.4 yards per play

I'm not a big stats guy, but the difference between their defensive statistics and their offensive statistics is rather obvious. Nebraska has a legit top 20 defense, and Husker fans would argue top 10 or top 5. You can make the case that their offense isn't even in the top half of college football.

As for their special teams, here are the numbers:

Punt returns (37th): 10.95 average, 2 TD
Kickoff returns (38th): 23.00 average
Punting (38th): 41.98 yards per punt, 5.5 average return
Kicking (1st): 68.32 yards per kick, 26 touchbacks, 19.78 yards per return (23rd)
Field goals (32nd): 16/20

I'll primarily talk about their offense and finish up with a brief discussion of their special teams.

Quarterback

Zac Lee has had a rocky year. He has looked good against their weaker non-conference opponents but has looked mediocre to awful in most of their important games, particularly away from Lincoln. After that disaster against Iowa State, Zac Lee was benched against Baylor and the first quarter of the Oklahoma game. Lee entered the OU game and didn't do much but hand the ball off, but he did have a touchdown pass off an OU turnover.

But aside from all that, the Huskers are the North champs. Yay, Zac Lee.

Lee is an extremely limited QB. He's not particularly dangerous with his legs (he did have a 32 yard jaunt against Kansas, though) and there's nothing impressive about his arm. On the pecking order of QB's we've faced this year, he's somewhere near the bottom. At the least, he has only 7 interceptions all year and is truly a game-managing, caretaker QB, helping him achieve an okay QB rating despite pedestrian numbers overall. Nebraska's coaches have tried to simplify things for him when he returned to the starting lineup, and he has rewarded them with relatively steady performances.

Lee can be rattled, pressured, and forced into mistakes. Nebraska will try to play ball control offense, shield Lee with a strong running attack, and take calculated shots from that. If he is forced to sling the ball to play catch up, and it can get ugly in a hurry for NU's offense.

The backup, Cody Green, was the ill-fated starter against Oklahoma. He's not a threat to throw at all, but he can run and Nebraska may turn to him to get something going on offense.

Runningback

Roy Helu Jr.
Rex Burkhead

Helu Jr. had a shoulder issue in the middle of the season, but he has looked good most of the season and came up with good performances in the important three-game stretch against OU, KU, and KSU. Colorado did a decent job limiting him, but Helu Jr. runs with power and he's deceptively quick. He's no Jamaal Charles so he won't rip off huge runs or blow up angles, but he will make purposeful decisions behind his offensive line and get the tough yards.

Rex Burkhead is the backup and is doing a respectable job. He's got some talent and he has decent hands. Burkhead is good for several carries, and he had a strong 18 carry, 100 yard game against Colorado. Still, expect to see a whole lot more Helu Jr.

The Husker's low team rushing ranking above is a little deceptive; Helu Jr. and Burkhead both rush for over 5 yards per carry, and Helu Jr. ranks 35th in the nation in rushing yards. This team can run.

Wide Receiver/TE

Niles Paul
Curenski Gillelyn
Chris Brooks
Menelik Holt
Mike McNeil (TE)

Niles Paul has some speed and he's averaging over 19 yards per catch with 35 receptions on the year. He's not a guy that will carve you up, but he's the player the Huskers look for when they take one of their few big chances, and he's not even that fast. He has had big games but he only has three touchdown receptions and did absolutely nothing against Oklahoma. Literally. He had zero receptions.

After him, the receivers are utterly forgettable. Gillelyn is a bit of a deep threat but that's it, and only Holt is a big target at 6'4. This is definitely not Texas A&M. At the very least, you can't say they don't want to block; if anything, the Nebraska coaches know their offense's limitations and get these guys to get their hands on defenders to help their runningbacks.

Mike McNeil is a decent tight end. He leads the team with four touchdown catches and Lee will look for him on relatively easy passes in the flat and near the goalline. Like the receivers, he's a willing blocker.

Again, compared to the rest of our Big 12 schedule, this receiving group is pretty low on the list.

Offensive Line

LT: Mike Smith
LG: Keith Williams
C: Jacob Hickman
RG: Ricky Henry
RT: Marcel Jones

This unit has had good performances but also some struggles here and there. The struggles have normally come from the right side of the line; Nebraska lost former starters Matt Slauson and Lydon Murtha from this part of the line to graduation, and the new guys haven't been as strong.

They had their problems against Oklahoma but ultimately did enough to pound out 140 rushing yards and get the win, and they're a more physical bunch than most of the teams we've seen despite lacking monster size. Furthermore, they haven't given up too many sacks, although they don't pass a lot anyway.

Mike Smith is their most experienced guy and their best lineman, but he is no Russell Okung. On the opposite side, while Marcel Jones sees the most snaps D.J Jones is listed as the co-starter. The right tackles are vulnerable off the edge and are still inexperienced and prone to mistakes. The O-line as a whole has had issues with penalties and they are not the most consistent bunch. I think Oklahoma State has a better offensive line, and I'm confident our D-line can make plays against them and draw penalties.

Special Teams

Their main punt and kick returner is Niles Paul, and he's done a decent job and has one punt return for a touchdown. As far as their kickers, Alex Henery is a good place kicker and their punter has had some recent success pinning back their opponents close to their goalline. It's an all-around good unit, and they are fully capable of taking advantage of sloppy kickoff coverage and using the kicking game to win the field position battle. Without D.J. Monroe, our kickoff returning ability took a hit, and it doesn't help that Nebraska has been good in coverage.

Conclusion

I think there's only one way this offense has success against us: We tire out and they have a significant field position advantage. And that can only happen if A) Their defense stuffs our offense and/or causes turnovers and B) Our special teams screws up. They are physical enough in the run game to wear us down if our offense thinks it's okay to screw around like earlier in the season, and that's exactly what they'll try to do. You can't say Nebraska is suffering from delusions of grandeur; Zac Lee will not be dropping back like Drew Brees and challenging us with his arm, at least if Nebraska can help it. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more daring on Nebraska's part, such as playaction passes downfield and a trick play or two. They have a lot less to lose than we do.

At face value, it might seem prudent to come out immediately with 8 man fronts to dare Zac Lee to do something about it. At the same time, our rushing defense has been fine without doing that and there's no reason to do so until Nebraska shows they can move the ball consistently. Nebraska will come out mostly in power sets, and while Texas hasn't seen too many teams with such an offense, I think it is an offense we can still handle. I'm not that afraid of Cody Green either; while Green brings the running QB dimension to Nebraska's offense, he can't throw and will most certainly not be able to make the plays Jerrod Johnson did.

This is not a good offense. If Nebraska posts over 20 points, you can bet that their defense and special teams had a lot to do with that. Or Chykie Brown took a nap again.

Nebraska Preview: Defense

TheElusiveShadow — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:05:26 -0000

It's been difficult to find time to watch film on Nebraska, but I've watched a little, particularly the Oklahoma game, to get a better idea of the team we're facing in just two days. Since nobody is concerned about their offense, it is prudent to start with their defense and see where they can cause us problems.

Here are some of NU's general defensive stats, via cfbstats.com:

Rushing defense (14th): 1213 yards, 2.98 ypc, 6 TD
Passing defense (25th): 2274, 5.4 ypa, 7 TD
Scoring defense (3rd): 11.1 ppg
Total defense (11th): 290.6 yards per game, 4.2 yards per play
Sacks (12th): 33 total, 2.75 per game
TFL: (38th): 74
Int: (13th): 16

Stats like these don't tell everything and can even be deceiving, but a quick look at this list shows at the very least, Nebraska has a competent defense, certainly more so than most of the teams we have faced so far. I don't think this unit is quite as good as OU's squad overall (nor ours), but they are definitely in the top 3.

Defensive Line:

DT: Ndamukong Suh
DT: Jared Crick
DE: Pierre Allen
DE: Barry Turner

Like Oklahoma, this unit is by far the strongest for Nebraska, and they set the tone for the Nebraska defense. What struck me as I noticed them is that they do not necessarily get penetration and make plays in the backfield on normal downs, but they are very active along the line of scrimmage and do not allow teams to have consistent gains on the ground. In that regard, they play pretty disciplined and usually don't get caught shooting too far upfield. On obvious passing downs, they can bring the heat, and because of that Nebraska is content to not send too many blitzes. Even then, the line is good at playing contain, and they are strong enough to close the pocket quickly with the hapless QB stuck inside.

Ndamukong Suh is the obvious player to watch. Not only is the guy big and strong, he is very athletic and quick for his size, and he knows how to use his hands and arms to shed blockers and disrupt plays. He's also a smart player; he's good at recognizing screens, and he's good at getting his hands up to deflect passes. Against Oklahoma, he read a screen with OU deep in their territory, stopped suddenly and leapt up to deflect the pass, and against Missouri, he read Gabbert's eyes and then reached up to snag an interception.

One of the plays that really stuck out to me was when OU tried to single block Suh with Jarvis Jones in the fourth quarter of their game, and Suh drove Jones back and then nonchalantly tossed him into Landry Jones. It was striking how easily he did it. I would imagine we would avoid trying to block him with just one guy most of the day.

"Jones, meet Jones." - Ndamukong Suh

Because of Suh, others on the line can make plays, and they are no slouches. Crick is having a strong year and had five sacks against Baylor, leading his team with nine total. Crick is a big guy too but a bit more lanky (at least, as "lanky" as DTs can look), and he has definitely made the most of his the opportunities afforded to him by Suh. This will be a stiff challenge for our interior O-line.

Their defensive ends are pretty good and strong, but they don't strike me as fast guys like Kindle or Jeremy Beal. They are good against the run and they can overwhelm offensive linemen with their strength, but I wouldn't expect them to run down plays from behind or run down Colt McCoy if Colt gets loose. I suspect their job this Saturday will be much the same: Keep Colt in the pocket and don't allow him to get outside contain. Whether or not they are successful may be a big indicator of Nebraska's chances.

Our O-line has had some ups and downs this season, and this is going to be a big challenge. Davis can try to counter the strength of their D-line by moving the pocket around and going no-huddle to try to wear them out, but he can only do so much if our O-line gets whipped out there.

Linebackers

Philip Dillard
Sean Fisher
Will Compton

Their linebackers are the least impressive unit. I don't think they're particularly good at open-field tackling and they are not sharp in coverage, and teams have had moderate success against these guys in the passing game. They struggled handling Demarco Murray when he came out of the backfield and had some issues against Texas Tech. Other than Dillard, who is a senior, the rest of this unit is quite young, including their backups. Nebraska seems to play a lot of nickel to avoid putting too many of these guys on the field at once, and only Dillard is among the leaders in tackles on this team. They have definitely benefited from the strength of the D-line.

Dillard will clean up after the D-linemen but he's not that impressive athletically, and Sean Fisher's abnormally tall height can be a detriment since he can't shed blocks. Nebraska will be putting extra defensive backs on the field, not only to defend our passing attack but to keep their linebackers on a short rotation.

Note to Greg Davis: Pick on these guys. If we can match them up against our slot receivers, that'd be great, though I'm sure they will not be so stupid to do that. What we can do is match them up against Tre Newton or Whittaker and take advantage of that in the passing game.

Secondary

S: Larry Asante
S: Matt O'hanlon
CB: Prince Amukamara
CB: Alphonso Dennard
S: Eric Hagg

To make up for their weaker linebacker unit, Nebraska likes to play extra safeties. The secondary as a whole is not a lockdown type of unit, but they can tackle and they are disciplined. Amukamara is a pretty good corner and was leading the team in interceptions until O'hanlon picked off Landry Jones three times. He is still 6th in tackling on their team and leads the team in PBUs (other than Suh). He's not a lockdown guy, in my opinion, but he's big and fast and he plays zone well. The other starting corner, Dennard, has improved throughout the season, but there is a definite gap between Amukamara and him.

The second best player on their secondary is Asante, who can tackle very well and has decent range. I don't think he's good at one-on-one coverage, but he can come up and make plays in front of him, much like OU's safeties. After that, O'hanlon is a decent player who plays smart, and Eric Hagg is their primary nickel guy who can come in and tackle and blitz. ~~Both are white guys that~~ O'hanlon is a white guy who may draw joking comparisons to our own Blake Gideon. Whether that is a compliment or insult may differ between Longhorn fans.

I think this is a unit that can be stretched vertically and who can have trouble if a strong running attack reaches the second level. Also, quarterbacks that know how to attack a zone for chunks of yards, such as Todd Reesing and whoever Texas Tech is using, can have some success against them. I hope GD doesn't resign himself to trying to only dinking and dunking to the endzone, because these guys like to play that way.

Conclusion

It is fair to say that we haven't seen a defense of Nebraska's caliber since the OU game, and our offense did not perform well then. However, it is also fair to say that Nebraska hasn't faced an offense with as many weapons and balance as we do when we're at our best. The biggest factor, without a doubt, is how we handle their defensive line, particularly their mean interior. If we can't get the running game going and Colt's starts feeling heat on passing downs, that may cause Davis to resort to short, quick passes all day, allowing Nebraska's secondary to play aggressive without fear of getting burned.

One great way for us to keep the running game alive and the defensive line guessing is using Colt's legs. Zone-reads and QB draws can do wonders for our runningbacks and our O-line's ability to handle the pass rush. I'm not so sure about screens; NU seems to play them well and they don't blitz a lot. As far as the bubble screen, I think a few of them are justified to see if Nebraska can handle our receivers and to set them up for some big plays.

I don't think we'll tear this defense to shreds, but I'm optimistic for real success. I think we can definitely double their scoring average on the season.

Thoughts?

Eye on the North: Well, That Was Easy

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:57:53 -0000

More photos » by Dave Weaver - AP

I think we may have to see this guy sometime soon.

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With a Nebraska win and a Colorado loss, the North race cleared up instantly and is now exclusively down to Kansas State and Nebraska. The other four teams cannot reach five conference wins any longer, and with the Wildcats and Cornhuskers set to play one another, one of them will end up with at least five themselves. End of drama. Too bad; I was cheering for Nebraska to lose too just for the sake of North chaos.

Kansas State received a bit of a whipping from Mizzou, but Colorado's loss made that largely meaningless, while Nebraska's win gave them a half-game lead over K-State. Meaning: The division will be decided by the game in Lincoln this Saturday, and it will be a good idea to keep an eye on this while you're watching the Horns pummel the free-falling Jayhawks. Both teams can still win the division outright if Nebraska either wins out or loses out, but the head-to-head tiebreaker pretty much makes Nebraska's last game irrelevant.

It is an interesting matchup between two run-first, defensively-minded teams. Neither team can pass the ball well and rely heavily on running the ball, and neither offense is particularly good. K-State has a weak pass defense but it remains to be seen if Zac Lee can do anything about that. Watching the Husker offense can be very painful, but I like them this game because of their superior defense, which will surely challenge K-State's one-dimensional and very unimpressive offense (an offense that failed to score a touchdown on Missouri last Saturday). Expect field goals, turnovers, punting, and heavy doses of Daniel Thomas and Roy Helu Jr. I wouldn't expect long touchdown drives; if either team is going to score touchdowns, I'd predict big plays from special teams or turnovers setting those scores up.

See you in Dallas, Nebraska. At least, so I think.

Poll

Who do you think wins in Lincoln and therefore wins the North?

Kansas State

80 votes

Nebraska

605 votes

685 votes | Poll has closed

Eye on the North

TheElusiveShadow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:05:27 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The Big 12 North is messy.

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With the team's major hurdles out of the way and a clear path to the Big 12 championship game, it is time to start thinking about who our North division opponent will be. Call it "looking ahead" if you will; I'll just call it confidence.

Unfortunately, it is not a particularly easy task right now trying to figure out the North. Whether you think the North is better than people give them credit for or just really, really bad, there isn't a lot separating each team; no team has been completely eliminated yet. Here are the current standings for the Big 12 North:

Team	Conference	Overall
Kansas State	4-2	6-4
Nebraska	3-2	6-3
Colorado	2-3	3-6
Iowa State	2-4	5-5
Kansas	1-4	5-4
Missouri	1-4	5-4

The following will be a series of quick profiles of each team and their chances to win the North, their key players, and what kind of threat they pose to Texas.

Kansas State

Best wins: 62-14 over Texas A&M, 17-10 over Kansas
Worst losses: 66-14 to Texas Tech, 17-15 to... wait for it... Louisiana Lafayette
Notable players: WR Brandon Banks, DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald, RB Daniel Thomas
Good at: Running the ball, stopping the run, and turnover margin. Kansas State ranks 24th in rushing offense, 20th in rushing defense, and 6th in turnover margin.
Bad at: Passing the ball and stopping the pass. K-State is 105th in passing and 83rd in defending the pass.
In three words or less: Late bloomer. The Wildcats rebounded from their destruction at the hands of Texas Tech to drill Texas A&M, beat Colorado and Kansas, and give OU a decent fight.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 vs. Missouri, 11/21 at Nebraska
Status in North Race; One of two favorites. K-State controls their fate and the game against Nebraska seems likely to decide the North.
Additional comments: In addition to their strengths, receiver Brandon Banks has returned 4 kickoffs for touchdowns (#1 in the nation) and averages 31.35 yards per carry (#6). They put up a surprisingly good fight against Oklahoma.
Threat Level: Low. Their strength is to run the ball, which we're good against, and they can't defend the pass well. Turnovers and special teams scores, like in 2007, would be the most conceivable way they could take down Texas. K-State does have a two game winning streak against Texas and they upset Oklahoma in 2003. Tricky tricky.

Nebraska

Best wins: 10-3 over Oklahoma, 27-12 over Missouri
Worst losses: 9-7 to Iowa State (boy, that was ugly), 31-10 Texas Tech
Notable players: DT Ndamukong Suh, RB Roy Helu Jr., DE Jared Crick, DB Prince Amukamara
Good at: Defense. They rank 11th in the country in total defense.
Bad at: Offense. Not much more to say.
In three words or less: Offensively offensive. The offense threw away the game against Iowa State, couldn't get anything going against Texas Tech, and looked crappy in their win over OU.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 @ Kansas, 11/21 vs Kansas State, 11/27 @ Colorado
Status in North Race; The other favorite. Win out, and they're in. Even if they don't, they have a chance.
Additional comments: Their defense is legit and Suh is a monster. If they had a competent offense, this Husker team would be really interesting.
Threat Level: Medium. Watching Suh ransack OU's offensive line was funny, but it didn't give me pleasant images of our guards and Chris Hall trying to block him. Their defense will be an interesting matchup, but I'm not afraid of their offense at all, which is an abomination to offensive football.

Colorado

Best wins: 34-30 over Kansas, 35-34 over Texas A&M
Worst losses: 23-17 to Colorado State, 54-38 to Toledo. Ouch.
Notable players: RB ~~Darrell Scott~~ Rodney Stewart, WR Scotty McKnight
Good at: Embarrassing teams they're not supposed to beat, like Kansas and A&M.
Bad at: Football. And keeping their most talented players on campus.
In three words or less: Somehow still breathing. This is a team widely considered at one point to be the worst team in the Big 12, yet they stand third place in the North standings.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 @ Iowa State, 11/21 @ Oklahoma State, 11/27 vs. Nebraska
Status in North Race: Believe it or not, if they win out and the chips fall their way, they have a chance to win the North straight up, without even needing a tiebreak.
Additional comments: It's never a good thing when some fans are even proposing the far-fetched legal argument that Hawkins would not be due his buyout if he was fired because he did such a negligent and poor job.
Threat Level: Zilch. I still think this is one of the bottom two or three teams, if not the very bottom team, in the Big 12.

Iowa State

Best wins: 9-7 over Nebraska
Worst losses: 35-10 to Texas A&M, 35-3 to Iowa, 34-8 to Oklahoma State
Notable players: RB Alexander Robinson, QB Austen Arnaud (running)
Good at: Running the football and effort. And eagerly receiving games handed to them on a silver platter.
Bad at: Passing and defense
In three words or less: Valiant, but futile. Iowa State plays hard and it was cool to see their locker room celebration after defeating Nebraska, but they don't have a very strong team.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 vs Colorado, 11/21 @ Missouri
Status in North Race: For them to get in, they obviously need to win out, and they need Kansas State to lose their next two and Nebraska to lose to everyone but K-State. That puts K-State, Iowa State, and Nebraska at 4-4 in the conference. K-State would get shoved aside because of their inferior overall record (6-6 compared to 7-5), and then Iowa State would have the head-to-head nod over Nebraska. I think.
Additional comments: They can beat Colorado, but it is unlikely they'll win out, even against struggling Mizzou.
Threat Level: Zero. As long as we don't turn the ball over eight times (and perhaps even if we did), there's no way we could lose to the Cyclones if by some crazy miracle we see them in Dallas.

Kansas

Best wins: Uh... 44-16 over Duke and 34-7 over UTEP. Hey, Houston couldn't beat UTEP in El Paso.
Worst losses: Choose any of the last four.
Notable players: QB Todd Reesing, WR Desmond Briscoe, WR Kerry Meier, DE Jake Laptad
Good at: Passing the ball
Bad at: Defense, turnover margin, and having confidence in your quarterback.
In three words or less: Sinking. The Jayhawks started 5-0 before being upset by Colorado, and it's been straight downhill from there with three more consecutive losses.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 vs. Nebraska, 11/21 @ Texas, 11/28 vs. Missouri (neutral site)
Status in North Race: Also alive. They need K-State to lose out (including a loss to Nebraska) and Nebraska to lose to Colorado, while Kansas wins out, which includes a win over Nebraska. Their superior overall record at that point would give them the edge in the tiebreaker. Follow?
Additional comments: Perhaps the most disappointing team in the North considering their undefeated start. They have the least chance of winning the North because they are the only team playing Texas in the future.
Threat Level: Very low. If we beat them (and we should), they're out of the North race anyway, so that's that.

Missouri

Best wins: 37-9 over Illinois, and... 36-17 over Colorado
Worst losses: 41-7 to Texas, 40-32 to Baylor
Notable players: QB Blaine Gabbert, WR Danario Alexander, LB Sean Witherspoon
Good at: Passing offense and rushing defense.
Bad at: Rushing offense and passing defense. And staying healthy (Gabbert).
In three words or less: "What if" team. If Suh never landed on Gabbert's ankle, Missouri may have beaten Nebraska and even Oklahoma State. Instead, they're tied for last in the division.
Remaining opponents: 11/14 @ Kansas State, 11/21 vs. Iowa State, 11/28 vs. Kansas (neutral site)
Status in North Race; The Baylor loss hurt, but they're still alive in the same way Kansas is. If they win out (which includes a game against K-State), K-State loses their other game against Nebraska, and Nebraska loses their other two games, then Mizzou wins the North. Isn't this fun?
Additional comments: They have a better shot than Kansas since Texas isn't coming up for them, but it still isn't a very good one.
Threat level: Very Low. We know we're much better than they are.

Head Spinning...

That was fun. Hopefully by next week, somebody is eliminated and we can narrow this list down appropriately. It will be an interesting stretch run for the North. At the moment, I think Nebraska will be the one we'll see in Dallas, although I understand many Texas fans want to see Kansas State for some "revenge." Either way, we will be heavily favored against any North opponent, and as long as we take care of ourselves, they should not get within a couple scores of the Horns. Of course, for all we know Nebraska could thrash everyone by 30+ the next three games and scare the crap out of us by the end. We'll see.

The State of... the BCS? A Discussion on Margin of Victory As Part of the Computers

TheElusiveShadow — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:18:59 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

"We need to score one more to get this margin under 30! Wait, does it matter?"

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What do I do when I'm bored? Other than play Street Fighter II on my Super Nintendo emulator (your nerd jokes can't hurt me, I'm proud of it), I think about the Horns, the BCS, and football in general. I read what I can, write a few things, and even re-watch games, much to the detriment of my fall studies. Because I retain the status as a contributing author, I will subject the community to more of my thoughts before PB pulls the plug on my ramblings.

Speaking of Street Fighter II, I must say that it is pretty satisfying to whip the opponent without getting touched to earn a "Perfect" from the announcer (or a "flawless victory" from you Mortal Kombat losers). "Perfect" means you totally destroyed the other fighter, and your reward is a mountain of bonus points. In fact, the more health you have and the more time you have left when you win a round, the more total points you get. Thus, if a player were to go undefeated in all 12 matches and win quickly and impressively, he can expect to be high in the score rankings, as opposed to some lucky bozo who had to go to Round 3 in every match and squeak by while getting bloodied up. It doesn't matter if Player 2 was undefeated too; Player 1 won with dominance, and therefore, he has a better score and is the better Street Fighter player. Sounds perfectly logical, right?

In yo face, Guile.

But wait, says Player 2. He played on Hard difficulty, while Player 1 played on Medium. The fact that Player 1 dominated Medium difficulty is much less impressive than him navigating Hard difficulty without a loss. As they argue, a third player enters and says triumphantly that while he lost one close match, the fact that he played on Hardest difficulty and finished the game means he's the superior player. Player 2 balks at this and says that there is no material difference between Hard and Hardest, while Player 1 shouts that it doesn't matter what difficulty he played on: He lost! The three players bicker endlessly before bedtime, at which time they quietly wonder why they don't have girlfriends.

Where am I going with this? Well, I'm sure I don't need to tell you that this hypothetical nerd debate sounds frighteningly similar to common BCS arguments that rage among fans and pundits. Arguably, no other topic is as controversial as the dreaded phrase "style points," an ambiguous term that is related to strength of schedule, margin of victory, offensive statistics, and almost anything else fans want to include. College football fans will generally agree that teams need to play well against both good and bad competition to warrant consideration among the nation's best, but they disagree mightily on what constitutes "playing well." The addition of "objective" computers really hasn't helped ease these debates, and they've arguably made them worse.

Among the many factors people consider, I want to focus on the issue of margin of victory (although that naturally is tied to strength of schedule), a controversial metric used to attempt to separate teams high in the rankings of the BCS. I'll discuss the utility of margin of victory (henceforth MoV), its flaws, and then I'll propose some tentative, general ideas on how it can possibly be added back into the computers in reasonable way. This is just a thought exercise, as I do not expect any such changes to the BCS, but it is something fun to think about.

The (Un)Reliability of Margin of Victory

MoV is one of those factors that seem easy to interpret on the outset, which is why many analysts love to appeal to it. It's just basic arithmetic, which is "objective," correct? Uh, not quite. While almost any voter or power poller considers MoV, how one applies it to his rankings may differ widely. What looks like a simple consideration turns into yet another ambiguous statistic upon closer inspection. There are probably three main reasons for this:

Strength of Schedule - The most obvious is the strength of schedule. Beating UTEP by 50 is not the same as beating USC by 50. I think most would agree with that. However, is beating Toledo by 45 the same as beating Texas A&M by 21? Is thrashing Ohio State, say, 56-0 the same as beating Florida 10-7? Now that's where things get really tricky.
Running Up the Score/Garbage Points: Normally, when we look at a three score victory in the box score, we naturally assume an easy win for the victor. However, this is not always true; Iowa's recent, 18-point victory over Indiana is one such game where the final score does not do justice to the competitiveness of the entire game. Similarly, if we see a 10 point win, we might think it was a close game, but it may be that the winning team was up by 24 the entire game and only two, meaningless touchdowns on the last two drives of the loser made the score more respectable.
Difference in Scoring Pace: While the MoV is equal, a game that is 21-0 is not quite the same as a game that is 56-35. The first game features a shutout, which some voters love, while the second features tons of points, which other voters love. There is, at least, some sort of difference between these two games.

These reasons are important to discuss because they not only can make the MoV ambiguous, they can make it downright misleading. If a team is trying to look better than how they actually did, they might run up the score for some meaningless field goals or touchdowns to fool those who just look at the final score (and computers would just look at the final score). Ditto for teams who are way behind and try to make the score more respectable with garbage points. In Ole Miss' first game, for example, Houston Nutt intentionally ran up the score to hide the fact that the Rebels were in a dogfight against not-so-mighty Memphis for much of the game. Similarly, if a team wins 56-0, it looks nice even though the game was played against a sorry FCS opponent. If the hypothetical 21-0 and 56-35 games are looked at as equal, it does not do justice to the defense of that first game that earned the shutout or perhaps the offense in the second game for being so prolific. As you can see, while many, like Dr. Saturday, think removing MoV from the computers was a stupid idea, it is easy to see the concerns about having computers, which do not watch games, using such a potentially misleading statistic. Even if you don't care a lick about the potential sportsmanship ramifications, these are powerful arguments against using MoV.

However, most viewers understand that there is at least something to be gleaned from a big win. Elite teams will bury inferior competition and even whip good competition from time to time. Most Texas fans will say that thrashing Oklahoma State in Stillwater 41-14 earned Texas some serious respect. Without a doubt, Oregon fans (and by extension, Boise State fans) will make a big deal out of the Ducks not only for defeating USC, but for hammering them by 27. Likewise, most people (and even some Iowa fans) will say that Iowa barely surviving against Northern Iowa is a legitimate point to bring up, as is their close game with Arkansas State. This is simply an intuitive grasp of what happened in those games, and many people argue that this aspect needs to be reflected in the computers in one way or the other. In other words, the computers should not just take into account wins and losses, but how the teams actually looked on the field, which is at least partially seen in MoV. Just as not all wins and losses are equal based on SoS, neither are all wins or losses equal based on MoV.

Solution?

Personally, I was at first in favor of eliminating MoV from the computers; I felt that it was much too misleading a factor for the computers. If MoV is to mean anything, I felt that the voters, who make up 2/3 of the BCS formula, would be enough to take MoV into account. Unfortunately, the voters do as poor or poorer of a job processing MoV than a wooden computer might, many of whom fail to closely watch games and simply rely on box score stats. Since we're stuck with the computers for the foreseeable future (much to whills' displeasure), I have thought of some ways to potentially add MoV back into the computers while minimizing the chance of deceptive scores skewing the results. I'm not a programmer so I'm not even going to pretend to know how to actually program these into the computers; these are just general concepts that could be useful.

Cap the MoV - I think most would agree that winning by 35 and winning by 45 is not materially different. This is a very simple thing to do that would be a good start, but it definitely would not prevent teams from running up the score to reach that number or trying desperately to score garbage points to get under the threshold.

Track "Close Game" Stats - At Rock M Nation, Bill C. uses categories called "close game %" and "close game stats." He defines a close game as one that is within two scores, and "close game %" tracks what percent of the entire game was within that margin (if a game was within two scores for only 15 minutes, the game was only 25% close), while "close game stats" are the actual offensive and defensive statistics he tracks within that time frame. This can be very helpful in discarding what are "garbage" points and statistics and what are numbers that actually made an impact on the game. For example, when discussing the Missouri-Texas game last year, Bill C. makes this observation:

So what happens if you're, say, Carl Edwards, and you have a mishap on the track in Lap 1 of a race? Your car is able to keep going, but you end up laps behind. You try to drive well the rest of the race, but it just doesn't matter because your day ended in the first minute, and the next three hours are just a formality. This game is why my 'close game' designation was created. While the overall stats tend to say something, the 'close game' stats are what count. The overall stats say this was an offensive shootout, with Texas just having more success in the end. The 'close game' stats say this was never a game, not even for one second. (emphasis mine)

And regarding close game %:

This game was also why I do the "% close" number. Penn State ended up beating Michigan by a bigger margin than Texas did over Missouri. But PSU-Mich was 80.0% close (i.e. 80% of the plays took place while the game was within two possessions). UT-MU wasn't even 30% close.

We might quibble what constitutes a "close game" or not, but I think the use of this concept could go a long way in weeding out the meaningless points that teams can put up. Taking this and the MoV cap together, if you and your opponent are within one score all game but you run up the score at the end to hit a 21 point lead, the close game % would basically neutralize those points and compute the game as it really was: A close game. In a similar vein, if you rush out to a 28 point lead and coast, and the opposing team scores two touchdowns in the waning moments of the fourth quarter against your backups, the close game stats would still register a blowout.

Differentiate MoV among different competition: I am unsure if the computers already did this before; in any case, it seems obvious to reward blowing out a good team more so than blowing out a terrible team. Beating an FCS opponent by the threshold of 35 (or whatever it is deemed to be) would be pretty negligible; dominating another Top Ten team, however, could earn a team some decent points.

Track Offensive and Defensive Advanced Statistics: Again, I will draw from Bill C.'s excellent Beyond the Box Score methods. One good way to properly reward and punish teams for on-field performance is to track efficiency, explosiveness, etc., more so than just bare statistics. Thus, while a team might have a large MoV, they may still get punished for playing poor defense or bad offense. This is a good way to treat different games with the same MoV in a more accurate manner. This, of course, is also checked by the close game stats, which would minimize the impact of stats gained in garbage time.

Conclusion

Perhaps whills is right that the best change the BCS could make right now is to eliminate the computers and expand the voter base. It's not going to happen, so if we're stuck with these machines, we might as well attempt to closer simulate the act of watching games by using advanced metrics along with MoV to help them differentiate better between games, and therefore, teams. Perhaps, then, the computers can actually help us answer questions such as, "Did Boise State dominate Oregon, or did both teams just suck it up and Oregon sucked worse?", "How good are Iowa's and Cincy's wins?", and, perhaps even retroactively, "So... who really deserved to win the Big 12 tiebreaker last year?" In any case, I know this much; MoV matters, but it is so susceptible to being skewed that I just can't endorse applying it robotically, either by a computer or by a human. If it's going to be in the computers, it needs some serious checks.

Poll

Should the computers be allowed to use MoV again?

Yes

31 votes

No

20 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Running Game Explosion: Yes, VY Deserves Credit Too

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:48:44 -0000

When watching NFL Live yesterday, Trey Wingo was going through the highlights and was complimentary towards Vince. Merrill Hoge, the idiot clown that he is, clearly was displeased that the Titans won with VY starting, sarcastically noting that the reason the Titans ran so much, and so well, was because Vince was in (implying that the Titans didn't trust him to throw). It is also worth mentioning that when Wingo noted that even Hoge would have to compliment Vince's touchdown throw, Hoge remained silent, while Dilfer agreed that it was a great throw.

This post, however, is not about Hoge per se, whom we all know is a moron regardless of how you feel about VY. This post is about the running game and some people's, including Hoge, inability to see the positive impact Vince Young has had, and can potentially have, for Tennessee's ground attack.

Vince Young critics commonly disparage his winning record by pointing out that the Titans are a run-first team with a very unimaginative offensive philosophy (for good or for ill). In other words, Young is "hidden" from the gameplan because he is a liability and the Titans avoid using him by simply running the ball, and running it again. What they fail to see is that Vince Young's very presence has a positive effect on the run game, and if used more effectively by Fisher, can be even more so.

This attitude can be seen in many people's reaction to the Titans' win over the Jags. Even those in the national media were trying to minimize Vince Young's effect on the game because Tennessee ran for over 300 yards; basically, any quarterback can win a game when their team rushes for 300 yards, right? What this fails to notice is that Vince Young was one of the reasons why the running game was successful on Sunday. Consider Chris Johnson's two long touchdown runs:

1. On third and 6, Young sidesteps the pressure and finds Kenny Britt for a big third down completion. Shortly after, Chris Johnson runs for a 54 yard touchdown. With another quarterback, like Collins, this is a sack and that run never happens.

2. As noted by me on the live game thread and Superhorn's post, Johnson's 89 yard touchdown run was influenced by Young's presence as a runner, causing several Jacksonville defenders to pause for a split second. While Johnson obviously deserves the majority of the credit for this play, there's nothing controversial about pointing out that the defenders' hesitation aided his cause.

With Collins in, that 54 yard touchdown doesn't happen and the 89 yarder might have just gone for the first down, and who knows what would have happened then. That's 143 yards rushing and two touchdowns that Young's mobility helped produce. It is way, way too simplistic to look at the box score stats and think, "Well, Chris Johnson exploded for 228 yards, so even Collins would have won that game too."

Back in 2006, when his critics said the same things, they failed to realize that the Titans' average rushing output more than doubled when Vince Young took over the starting job. While the college game is different, all of Texas' runningbacks enjoyed a healthy boost in their YPC when they were playing with Vince, and it's not like Travis Henry did anything after leaving Tennessee (granted, a lot of that had to do with his off-field stupidity).

I don't think Vince Young will ever be a QB like Manning and throw for bunches of yards and touchdowns. He will still make his mistakes, and I actually expect somewhere around the neighborhood of ten interceptions on his part before season's end. However, Fisher would do well to expand his thinking and take full advantage of what Vince can open up in the run game. I often call Fisher the Jim Tressel of the NFL; a successful coach who unfortunately has an outdated offensive philosophy (I encourage you to read Chris Brown's evisceration of Jim Tressel's poor use of Terrelle Pryor against USC). If he's willing to take more advantage of Vince's mobility, such as using the read option and getting Vince outside on boots, Young can make that Tennessee rushing attack even more dangerous.

And what does a better rushing attack give you? Well, it can also help make your defense look better; that was one of the few things Hoge said right on Sunday when talking about the New York Giants, saying that they needed to get back on track with Jacobs and the run game to help out their defense.

I've discussed the NFL's false sense of "pure football" and their close-mindedness regarding different offenses before, which is another topic altogether. Even given that, Fisher would be foolish to avoid the read option as a viable play in certain circumstances.

The Titans are not finishing better than 6-10 in my estimation (sorry), but if there's a silver lining, it's the opportunity to create a coherent offense that accentuates VY's influence on the run game.

The State of Oklahoma: See Ya Next Year, Okies

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:53:52 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

"Good luck trying to beat me next year, too."

Browse more photos »

Not much to say here, is there? We avoided the early hole and ended the game in the first half. The defense more than doubled Zac Robinson's interception total, even if Chykie probably should have knocked his INT down, Jordan Shipley easily won the battle with Perrish Cox, and Colt McCoy was efficient and effective. The fact that we throttled the best offense we'll probably see until the bowl season was quite encouraging.

The Pokes still have an mathematical shot at the Big 12 South title, but I doubt they are seriously considering that possibility. The Houston loss is now very costly; a one-loss Okie State would have been a good candidate for a BCS at-large berth, but even if they win out (and I'm inclined to think they'll lose to Oklahoma anyway), it is unlikely they're getting a BCS selection. Next year, they can say goodbye to some key players and it's back to obscurity.

For those curious about their losses next year, here's a list of key players moving on:

Offense:

LT - Russell Okung
WR - Dez Bryant (already gone)
QB - Zac Robinson
RT - Brady Bond
C - Andrew Lewis
LG - Noah Franklin
RB - Beau Johnson
RB - Keith Toston

Defense:

CB - Perrish Cox
S - Lucien Antoine
LB - Donald Booker
LB - Patrick Lavine
LB - Andre Sexton
DT - Derek Burton
DT - Swanson Miller
DE - Jeremiah Price
CB - Terrance Anderson

Contributing returners

Offense:

RB - Kendall Hunter
WR - Hubert Anyiam
WR - Dameron Fooks
WR - Josh Cooper
TE - Wilson Youman
RG - Lane Taylor

Honorable mention: RB Jeremy Smith

Defense:

DE - Ugo Chinasa
DE - Richetti Jones
DT - Shane Jarka
LB - Orie Lemon (injured this year)
S - Victor Johnson
S - Markelle Martin

And.... that's about it

There are several things worth mentioning. First and foremost, their offense will be losing a ton of key players, particularly along the offensive line. They have some decent receivers and Hunter returns along with promising freshman Jeremy Smith, but it looks to be a difficult transition for this offense for sure. Their offense will most certainly take a step back from the last couple of years.

Defensively they also lose a lot, but many of the losses are not exactly crippling since they didn't have that great of a defense to begin with. The biggest losses will be their linebackers and cornerback and return man Perrish Cox, but the others aren't departures to lose sleep over.

Thus, what we have is a team that will be losing most of their best players and who will be coming to Austin next year. I think I like Mack's chances to improve to an impressive 13-0 against Okie State in 2010.

And with that, the State of Oklahoma ends for good this year, and we can happily place both games in the win column. Because all we have to do is win to get to the promised land, there's no need to be overly concerned about what Oklahoma State and OU do from now on, but if I had to guess, I think Okie State loses to OU in Norman, beats Tech in Stillwater, and then Oklahoma squeaks one by in Lubbock. I hate to pick OU to win anything, but their defense is second only to ours and much better than the rest of the Big 12's units.

Just for kicks, I'll ask the community how they think Oklahoma State will finish.

Poll

What will OSU's record be at season's end (before the bowl season)?

7-5

28 votes

8-4

80 votes

9-3

315 votes

10-2

64 votes

487 votes | Poll has closed

The State of Oklahoma: Muschamp's Big Test This Season

TheElusiveShadow — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:09:04 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Zac Robinson will be the most dangerous QB we've faced this year.

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When I was keeping up with the Texas Tech-Texas A&M game through ESPN Gamecast, I could not believe what I was seeing. It was very similar to the feeling when I was watching UTEP run over the Houston Cougars. It made little sense, and I was mixed between shock and laughter. But before I laughed too hard, my memory hearkened back to the end of the disappointing 2007 season, when we watched our defense get gashed for over 200 yards through the air in the first half and nearly 400 in the game by... Stephen McGee. Stephen. Freaking. McGee. Thinking back on my years as a fan, that may have been the most furious I've been at the defense. Ever. I was throwing things at the TV, yelling throughout the house, and thinking dark thoughts about what I'd do if I saw Akina or MacDuff (remember that guy?). I'm not a guy who likes to jump on the "Fire Coach ____" bandwagon, but that game was the final straw in a slew of poor performances, and after that I wanted Akina demoted and MacDuff gone. Please. Anyone else but them. Mack Brown thought so too, and in comes Will Muschamp. And boy, this has turned out to be one of the best moves in Mack Brown's tenure.

Muschamp isn't perfect and not above criticism, but the guy has delivered, and fans can already see the change in attitude and demeanor the defense has undergone in two seasons. Now is his chance to deliver again when we face probably the most balanced offense we'll see this year. Heck, that might extend to the bowl season as well, because it's not like other top teams have been lighting up the scoreboard.

The big story going into the game is the status of both Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. Bryant, as you all know, will not play this game or for the rest of the season. Hunter is expected to return but in a limited capacity. These are no small losses for OSU, but at the least they were lost early in the season and OSU has had time to adjust. Even so, the Pokes will present the stiffest challenge to our defense to date, and I'll list why:

Offensive Line: This is not a dominating unit and they've had their problems in the interior with their new guards, but it will be the strongest line we've seen. They returned three starters with significant experience including left tackle Russell Okung, who will present an interesting matchup against our ends. Behind them, the running game has moved relatively smoothly along and Zac Robinson has only be sacked four times.
Running back depth: I'm not discounting the loss of Hunter, but Keith Toston and Beau Johnson have shown to be capable runners in his place. They are not as talented as the duo from Oklahoma, but their line is better and they are very capable of picking up chunks of yards when given the chance.
Zac Robinson: This year in the Big 12, we've faced Cody Hawkins (yawn), Taylor Potts (first year starter and who is done at Tech), a not-quite ready Sam Bradford for a handful of plays, Landry Jones (RS freshman), and a gimpy Blaine Gabbert (also first year starter). Clearly, Robinson will be the most dangerous QB this defense has faced all year, a three year starter with decent mobility, an underrated arm, and some scrappiness. Robinson is quietly leading the Big 12 in passing efficiency.

There are, though, some issues this offense faces as well. While they've been a fairly successful unit, they are far from the best offensive in the country that some predicted that would be. Again, I feel like making lists, so here's another:

WR depth: Hubert Anyiam has stepped up nicely in Dez Bryant's absence, but Bryant, despite missing the last four games, still leads the team in yards and touchdown receptions. Keith Toston is the third leading receiver at RB. I think they have some decent options such as Dameron Fooks, but this is not a very dangerous receiving group. They miss Pettigrew a lot here. Thus, I'm going to have disagree a little with Brandon Chatman, who was nice enough to answer our BON questions via email.
Lack of competition: If OSU has the best offense we've seen so far, we definitely have the best defense they've seen by a long shot. This is a team that, despite scoring 33 on Missouri, left a lot of points on the field even with a huge field position advantage throughout the game.
Interior Line: I mentioned this above but it's worth mentioning again. A&M had some success sending pressure up the middle. Our DTs should be able to get some penetration.

This is a solid offense but has obviously lost some explosiveness without Hunter and Bryant. The loss of Bryant hurts the most, as Robinson has had some chemistry issues with his receivers, leading to mistimed throws, inaccurate throws, and some drops. Still, OSU will still take shots down the field via the playaction game, and Anyiam has the size to be a threat.

Misdirection and Screen Game

One thing I've noticed watching OSU against A&M and Missouri is their use of playaction and other misdirection or option type of plays. Sometimes the playaction fake is honestly a bit half-hearted, but with their reputation running the football it is often an important fake nonetheless. Not only that, they like to employ their backs on screens and get their offensive line in the open field to block. In the run game, they will employ the zone-read, although Robinson has kept the ball a lot less and has had limited success on the ground this year. They will also use the option to get Robinson out on the edge.

I'll focus on a couple screen plays for OSU because I think it will be an interesting thing to look for as we try to bring the heat at Zac Robinson.

Against Missouri

Oklahoma State is in a two TE set with Toston in the backfield.

The receiver goes into motion and a handoff is faked to him, causing the linebackers to take a step towards their left.

Keith Toston goes to the flat to receive the screen pass. Notice he has both room and blockers to pick up a nice gain. The play fails because Robinson's pass is poor and it falls on the ground.

Against Texas A&M

This is the first play from scrimmage for Oklahoma State, and this time they have three receivers on the left side of the field. Toston is with Robinson in the backfield.

A receiver, like the play against Missouri, goes into motion, moving back to sweep behind Robinson. The faked handoff is to Toston, but the reverse action still causes the A&M linebackers to take a false step.

On this play, Robinson's pass was good and a couple of good blocks sprang Toston free for a big gain.

Conclusion

Under Muschamp, Texas has proven to be a team that defends the screen well. They will need to continue that this weekend as Oklahoma State seeks to find ways to neutralize the pressure Texas is capable of bringing. Other ways Oklahoma State can neutralize pressure is to rely on playaction, as we also see here, and look for opportunities down the field. This is why the clash between OSU's run offense against our run defense is big. Even though they haven't lit the world on fire on the ground this month, OSU's offense still flows heavily through their runningbacks and they are persistent. If Texas can frustrate the run game, OSU is ill-equipped to simply drop back and fling the ball around against our secondary.

I expect a big day from Lamarr Houston in the interior, and Ben Alexander will be a good option this game to stuff runs up the middle. Robinson has not been that successful keeping the ball on the edge, so at this point it might be a good idea that he should be encouraged to keep the ball on options or zone-reads to see if he can gain good yardage with his legs. Either way, expect the backs to get the ball a whole lot more in those situations.

I'm excited for this game, and I have a lot of confidence that our defense can hold this unit down. Let's take this one in Stillwater en route to the Big 12 title game.

Poll

How many points does Oklahoma State score?

0-10

50 votes

11-20

413 votes

20-30

150 votes

30-40

14 votes

41+

8 votes

635 votes | Poll has closed

The State of Oklahoma: So How Good is That OSU Defense?

TheElusiveShadow — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:31:10 -0000

After our game against Missouri on Saturday, I've been vacillating between "Oklahoma State is much better than the national media is giving them credit for" and "Oklahoma State is just a good team that has no impressive wins over anyone of note." What is it? After going through their games against Texas A&M, Missouri, and Baylor the last few weeks, I'm still not entirely sure. The Aggies got waxed by K-State of all teams and then turned around and ran over Texas Tech in Lubbock. Gabbert's bum ankle sabotaged Mizzou. The Baylor game was just boring because, well, the Bears aren't any good, and it was difficult to get much out of that. Before that, the Pokes beat a Georgia team that turned out to be very flawed and dropped to a Houston team that shockingly got whipped by UTEP. The toughest stretch of OSU's season begins this Saturday, while ours will end.

It is worth noting that if not for an incredibly lucky tipped ball for a Houston touchdown, Oklahoma State is undefeated and somewhere in the Top Ten mess between #4 and #10. If I had to take a wild guess, they would be behind the Hawkeyes at #5 in the BCS, and the hype for this game would be multiplied tenfold. Of course, that would not be entirely fair to Houston, who shredded Okie State's defense and made the plays to win. Again, what are they? Top ten team disguised in Grandma's clothes or superficially scary team?

This...

...or this?

Either way, the OSU game is a big one for Texas, but it is an interesting question nonetheless. With that in mind, I want to discuss what we can expect to see this weekend, and I'll start with their defense. I'll focus primarily on the Missouri game, a big night game for the Pokes and arguably against the best offense they've seen this year except Houston's.

Mistakes Doom Missouri

When I quickly reviewed the Mizzou-OSU game last week, I gave Oklahoma State a little too much credit holding down the Tiger offense. Don't get me wrong, they deserve their props, but when I had the chance to actually watch the game carefully, it became abundantly clear that Missouri left a mountain of opportunities on the field on offense. Blaine Gabbert, suffering from that bad ankle, mixed great throws with very inaccurate ones, and he missed many an open receiver. The receivers themselves didn't help with some devastating dropped balls, and key penalties and bad special teams gave a huge field position advantage to the Pokes. Also, I felt the playcalling was a bit bizarre at times for Mizzou, who often went to an empty set on short yardage situations with a gimpy QB and also called rollouts and even zone-reads.

The thing is, most of these mistakes were unforced, as Oklahoma State, at least until the second half, dealt minimal pressure with either their base 3 or 4 man rush or even with blitzes. When Gabbert misfired early, it had little to nothing to do with pressure and everything to do with his ankle. I'll enumerate some key mistakes, all of which were in the first half:

-On Missouri's first drive, the Tigers drive to the goalline, but Gabbert lets a ball sail on an open receiver and then a curious QB keeper call goes nowhere (did the Mizzou coaches know the guy can't run with that ankle?) The Tigers settled for a field goal.

-Second drive: The Tigers grabbed some good field position after a 40 yard throw off playaction. Unfortunately, a loss on a run and a false start made it second and 19, but a 15 yard run made it 3rd and 4 shortly after. Gabbert, with no pressure, threw two horribly overthrown balls on third and fourth down to give the ball back to the Pokes.

-Fourth drive: Gabbert underthrew Alexander on a long ball when he had the linebacker Sexton on him (in other words, that could have gone for a large chunk of yards). The underthrow allowed Sexton to grab Alexander's arm before the ball got there, and while he was called for pass interference, the net gain would have been much more than 15 yards had it been a good throw. The drive would end with another overthrown pass from Gabbert with no meaningful pressure, which led to a punt.

-Fifth drive: Gabbert rocketed a pass that was slightly too far ahead, but still catchable, to Jackson. The ball bounced off his hands into Lucian Antoine's, who promptly returned it for a touchdown. Oops. This cost Missouri the early lead.

-Seventh drive: Due to a muffed snap, the Tigers faced a 3rd and 21 deep in their own territory. Gabbert stepped up in the pocket to avoid the rushers and heaved a great throw to Kemp who was looking at a gigantic gain... and he dropped it. The resulting punt set up OSU with great field position and they scored to close the half.

In the second half, despite improved play from the OSU defense (particularly tackling), it was much of the same. An underthrown ball allowed Perrish Cox to get an interception (still an impressive pick, but should have been thrown farther or higher for Danario to leap for), and a disputable holding call cost the Tigers an 88 yard kickoff return. The Tigers had a few more drives into OSU territory that failed due to curious playcalling and more drops and bad throws. It makes it worse when you consider that OSU scored only nine points in the second half despite excellent field position.

The reason I'm listing all this is to show that Missouri hurt themselves more than Oklahoma State hurt them. Bill Young, afraid of the quick passing game from Missouri, stayed in a soft zone coverage most of the night with minimal blitzing. The problem was that they could not generate pressure, but fortunately for them, Gimpy Gabbert could not throw the ball consistently. When the Tigers weren't killing themselves, they moved the ball well, rolling up over 300 yards of total offense in the first half that would have been 400 if not for that huge dropped pass from Kemp.

What Bill Young Will Do

With that in mind, can we expect much of the same from Bill Young's defense? In many ways, yes: As Peter has said before, the proper way to defend our offense is to play a soft shell coverage that pursues and tackles well and dares us to run. Missouri went a little overboard on that which got them killed by Colt, but I would expect something along those lines this Saturday. For example:

Oklahoma State looked like this much of the game. This was the first play from scrimmage and OSU decided they would try to keep everything in front of them and also send only 3-5 rushers per play. This defensive decision allowed Missouri to run fairly well throughout the contest.

This is how the play ended. No pressure and an easy throw for a six yard gain.

What should be most troubling to OSU is their lack of pressure; neither their D-line nor their blitzes put consistent pressure on Gabbert, although it improved some in the second half. This left OSU vulnerable to big plays, and some poor tackling and pursuit by their secondary allowed some good YAC to Missouri's recievers. Here is Danario Alexander's long touchdown catch and run after Missouri's pick-6.

The Cowboys have three down lineman while the Tigers are empty. The Pokes are once again showing zone.

One blitzer is sent, linebacker Donald Booker, but the four man rush gets nowhere near Gabbert.

Alexander runs across the middle while safety Victor Johnson, the bottom right player in orange, lets him go to follow the Mizzou player entering his zone. Unfortunately, his teammate decided to follow him too, and a good throw by Gabbert (still a little high) gets the ball to Alexander.

A poor attempt at a tackle by Thomas springs Alexander free, and a poor angle and missed tackle by Perrish Cox allows him to score.

Conclusion

Oklahoma State's defense is not atrocious and will be among the better ones we have faced so far this season. However, their starting defensive ends, Jeremiah Price and Ugo Chinasa, haven't had the season their fans were hoping for, and their D-line as a whole is not nearly as scary as Oklahoma's. They have some athletic linebackers who can make some plays despite the loss of Orie Lemon, but their secondary is not that great. On the whole, this is a defensive unit not nearly as strong as OU's.

Bill Young is a guy that loves to bring the heat, but I think our own quick passing game will make him more cautious, similar to what we saw against Missouri. The key will be the ability to generate pressure with just four or five guys and to tackle and pursue well after the catch, things they did not do well against Missouri. Also, one thing that helped Missouri this game was the moderate success of their run game, which opened up some playaction passing and kept the LB's a little honest. This would be something Texas needs to do on the road; Fozzy and Cody don't need to combine for 200 yards, but the running game should be open for some steady gains. In other words, our offensive line needs to have a strong game and not start out like they did against Oklahoma or against Texas Tech last year.

Nonetheless, I expect several changes. Seeing the opportunities a hobbled Gabbert had against Missouri, I feel that if Colt sees similar ones, he will convert those opportunities and make OSU pay. Also, we too have a big receiver who can make plays after the catch (Malcolm Williams) and more weapons than Missouri has. Bill Young knows this, so I expect a little more blitzing and a little more complexity to try to confuse and rattle Colt McCoy, as they tried to do last year. Donald Booker, who leads the team in sacks and TFLs, is a good candidate for just that, as is safety Lucien Antoine. The Pokes are going to have to be risk-takers up to a point; I don't think they're good enough at D-line to just sit back and try to get to Colt on a basic 3 or 4 man rush throughout the whole game.

I hope Davis is patient with the run game and is willing to take shots downfield in such a big game, because I believe those chances will be there. If we decide to regress back to relying on Colt McCoy being a robotic passer, we can still win like we did last year, but it's going to be a rather uncomfortable ride.

Poll

How concerned are you about OSU's defense?

Not very much at all. They stink.

11 votes

They're okay but still can't stop us.

229 votes

Terrified. This is OSU, after all.

80 votes

I'm more afraid of what Greg Davis will do.

332 votes

652 votes | Poll has closed

The State of Oklahoma: The Pokes Quietly Keep Winning

TheElusiveShadow — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:41:47 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

"I'm a man. I'm 125."

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Now that OU's season is currently in the dumps, it is high time for their neighbors in Stillwater to finally get some attention. I thought Oklahoma State would start receiving some talk after starting conference play, but not even a night game against Missouri accomplished that. Nonetheless, the Pokes have just one loss and currently stand at #15 in the BCS rankings, ahead of the team that beat them (Houston) but behind two-loss Virginia Tech. Shrug. I guess Houston can't complain since they got spanked by UTEP of all teams.

The Pokes started conference play with a relatively sloppy win over Texas A&M and a solid dismantling of Missouri last Saturday night. For both contests, they were without Kendall Hunter and, of course, Dez Bryant, who has yet to hear anything back from the NCAA. I'll summarize the games below.

Against Texas A&M: Bullets

Some may argue that this game is meaningless because the Aggies deserve consideration with the likes of Rice after that incredible flop against K-State. Perhaps so. To be fair, though, as much as I dislike the Ags, I'd categorize that as more of a meltdown than an actual display of their abilities; not even A&M is that bad. A&M actually kept this game fairly close throughout, trading scores with the Pokes until OSU finally pulled ahead by 11. The Aggies scored again to cut the deficit to five but never got the ball back.

Bullets, because I'm lazy:

Keith Toston had a strong day, gaining 130 yards on 26 carries. However, Okie State as a whole only averaged 3.5 yards per carry during the game, although Johnson did score twice.
The Pokes continue to be heavily penalized, being flagged 11 times against A&M for a whopping 118 yards. They are averaging an NCAA worst 9.8 penalties per game.
Zac Robinson didn't have mind-blowing stats but he was efficient, throwing two scores and no interceptions.
Okie State was able to create some big plays without Dez Bryant. Robinson had passes for 51, 40, 32, and 27 yards and averaged almost 20 yards per completion.
Oklahoma State generated four sacks while not allowing Robinson to get dropped for one.
Jerrod Johnson was only 22-42 but had three touchdown passes, while Nunchuku... I mean Nwachukwu had 8 receptions for 142 yards.

This was a game Okie State arguably should have won more by; penalties and defensive mistakes kept the Aggies in the game. The Pokes did a good job applying pressure to Johnson and largely won the battle at the line on both sides of the ball. Offensively, it was encouraging for Pokes fans to see multiple 25+ yard completions in the absence of Bryant, although A&M's defense isn't exactly very good. Defensively, they often did a poor job containing Johnson and he was able to create some big plays in the passing game. However, A&M did not have much success running the ball, and after Okie State went up by two scores there wasn't really any doubt they'd win the game.

Mizzou after the jump...

Against Missouri: The Good, The Bad, and The Inexplicable

The Pokes put on a pretty strong performance against Missouri. It's their biggest win since Georgia and sets them up nicely in the Big 12 South race.

The Good

-Zac Robinson once again did not turn the ball over. He was efficient, going 22-35 for 227 yards and a touchdown, and he did some good things with his legs. This is the Zac Robinson OSU needs.

-Hubert Anyiam had a big day with 10 catches for 119 yards. If there's ever a silver lining for the Dez Bryant situation, it's that it forces both Robinson and other wide receivers to create a credible passing game without their star. If and when he comes back, OSU may be all the stronger for it.

-Keith Toston didn't average a lot of yards per carry but gained 91 tough yards on 24 rushes. They would love to have Hunter back but they have enough depth to make the running game work without him.

-Perrish Cox and Victor Johnson did an excellent job on kick returns, helping the Pokes have a big field position advantage all game as noted by Bill C. at Rock M Nation.

-OSU's kicker hit all of his field goals.

-Okie Lite forced four turnovers, including a pick six.

-The Pokes shutout Mizzou in the second half.

The Bad

-Danario Alexander had a big day against the Pokes.

-OSU could not score a TD in the second half.

-Now only Anyiam seems to be a legit threat at WR.

-Missouri had early success, including a 97 yard drive. The Tigers would have possibly built a lead if not for Antoine's pick six.

-OSU only dropped Gabbert once, although they put on decent pressure at times.

The Inexplicable

-Nine penalties. Again.

Slow Improvement

Injuries and a high profile suspension have robbed the Pokes of some potential, but they remain a strong team who has showed noticeable improvement. Anyiam's emergence is good news for a team that needed a receiver to step up alongside Bryant, but unfortunately his suspension almost puts OSU back to where they started for the time being. Johnson and Toston have done a good job holding the fort without Hunter, and Robinson has done a much beter job protecting the football. The tight-lipped Gundy won't say much about Hunter's status, but there are even rumors that he potentially be done for the year. OSU fans better hope that that's just another "horrible internet rumor."

It's kind of a mixed bag defensively. Giving up 31 points to the Ags is not good, but they have shown some big play ability and they held down Mizzou's offense. The linebackers, particularly Booker, continue to play well, while the line has been successful against the run and moderately so against the pass. The secondary can be a bit undisciplined and give up some yards, but the aggressiveness can pay off sometimes.

One thing that needs to stop is their penalties; averaging 10 per game will most definitely cost them a game if they keep this up. They're not all five yard false starts either; the Pokes are 116th in penalty yards too. Basically, that penalty-fest in the Cotton Bowl would be just another game for the Cowboys, which has to be very exasperating for the fans to watch.

This is a very competent team that will pose an interesting challenge. Their defense is not as good as Oklahoma's, but their offense looks far more capable with a stronger line. If Bryant and Hunter make it back by Halloween, they will field the most potent (or at least most balanced) offense we will see all year in the regular season.