SB Nation Blog: TheJay

Brewers to move Class A affiliate from West Virginia?

TheJay — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:16:21 -0000

The article alludes to the possibility of the Brewers moving their Class A affiliate to Appleton, where the Timber Rattlers (currently a Mariners affiliate) play. It also notes, however, that the Brewers left Beloit because of the weather. Something to keep an eye on either way. It'd be neat for those of us in Wisconsin to be able to see some of the team's younger prospects again. (Hat tip to Al's Ramblings)

Why the Brewers Won't Release Guillermo Mota

TheJay — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:06:29 -0000

I know the ninth inning collapse in the final game against Arizona would be ideally swept under the carpet, but I want to focus on at least one integral member of it. Yesterday on the JS blog, Tom Haudricourt wrote this about the ninth inning:

Guillermo Mota in for the Brewers, which turns out to be a disastrous move.

Mota, who has been nothing but a train wreck for weeks now, sets the stage for the Brewers' worst loss of the season. He faces three hitters and gets none out, allowing two infield hits -- the balls were tough plays -- and a walk.

[snip]

Arizona scored six runs without making an out. An awful, awful loss for the Brewers. No other way to say it. Guillermo Mota should be ashamed of himself.

Hopefully Todd Jones doesn't read Tom H's work. Sentiments were similar regarding Mota around here as well. There were some calls for Mota to be cut loose and criticizing the front office for not recognizing Mota has no place on the roster.

Now, while we as fans may have our opinions and plenty of reasons why they make sense, I believe the Brewers brass won't make the decision to cast Mota aside anytime soon. Maybe they will demote him to mop-up guy in the bullpen (as well they should) and take advantage of his ability to go multiple innings in blowouts, but I don't believe they'll cut him loose. Here's why:

1. While Haudricourt (and many around here will agree) says Mota has been a train wreck for weeks now, the question remains whether the Mota that's shown up in the past four weeks is what he'll do going forward. I suspect Brewers brass is more inclined to think the Mota they had for the first two months of the season is more his actual ability level than this past horrendous month. If they do believe a return to his numbers early in the season is possible, there's no reason to get rid of him. The idea he's tipping pitches seems a little too simple in explaining his troubles, but I'm guessing the coaching staff has some other ideas they'd like to try.

2. In the immortal words of many, many, many people: "It all comes down to money." Designating Guillermo Mota for assignment means he's gone for the rest of the season. The best case is some team wanting him badly enough to claim him on waivers and assuming the $1.6 million or so left on his contract. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. That's not to say Mota wouldn't have a job anywhere in the majors. I'm sure a number of teams (maybe not contenders) wouldn't mind gambling on a veteran like him filling a role in their bullpen for the rest of the season. The point is, though, that there's no real need for them to pay him $1.6 million to do that. If/when Mota does clear waivers, he could either choose to report to AAA Nashville or become a free agent. Assuming Mota and his agent, Adam Katz, aren't insane, he would choose free agency, forcing the Brewers to release him. Unfortunately, Milwaukee would still be on the hook for the rest of his contract until he's signed by another team. When he is signed, his new team only has to pay him the prorated minimum for the rest of the year (about $200K at most). The Brewers are still on the hook for the remaining $1.4 million. As battlekow might note, that's three and a half full seasons of minor leaguers, or seven half-seasons. If the front office feels Mota still can fill a role on a major league staff, they likely won't want to pay him to do it for another team.

3. There's no "proven" relievers stashed in AAA. Mark DiFelice, Tim Dillard, Erasmo Ramirez, and Derrick Turnbow are the Sounds' righties that have spent some time in the majors. I take that back: Turnbow is proven, in a bad way. I very much doubt the team will give Turnbow another shot until he manages not to walk more batters than he strikes out. Dillard pitched decently in his short stint with the Brewers earlier this year, but walks were an issue at the end of his tenure. DiFelice doesn't walk many batters, but the coaching staff was loathe to use him in close games when he was with the team before and I suspect they'd like to keep him and his underpowering arsenal stretched out as a long reliever/spot starter rather than a short reliever. Erasmo Ramirez has more major league experience than DiFelice and Dillard combined, having spent parts of three seasons in the Rangers' bullpen. He made a couple brief appearances for the A's and Marlins last season. This season in Nashville he's struck out 28 against 4 walks in 26 games spanning 33 2/3 innings. He could be a candidate to replace Mota, but he lacks the veteran mystique, not to mention his mediocre career strikeout rate in the bigs.

So there's a couple reasons the front office would be loathe to let Mota go, win now attitude or not. I know Julian Tavarez can be brought up as a counterpoint to the veterans over the untested idea, but there wasn't as much money involved in his signing and eventual release. If Mota is at some point replaced in the bullpen, it will more likely be a result of a trade for a better reliever than because he's designated for assignment and released outright. I wouldn't mind being proven wrong though.

NL Home/Road Splits, Facing Relievers

TheJay — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:29:41 -0000

The problems the Brewers have had scoring runs off relief pitchers on this road trip got me to thinking. The team has scored one run in 26 2/3 relief innings on the road trip, good for a 0.34 ERA. That's a pretty ugly number, to be sure. Here are more ugly numbers: the team has hit only .146/.191/.202 in 96 PA off relievers on this trip. A silver lining, perhaps, is that they've only got a .191 BABIP in that stretch so the hits haven't really been falling in. Given the team's recent tradition of struggling on the road, I wondered how badly they hit relievers on the road all season. Before this last road trip started, the team was hitting .225/.314/.353 in 536 PA (.270 BABIP) against relief pitchers away from Miller Park. Opposing relievers had an ERA of 3.46 (RA of 4.10) against the Brewers. Combining this abysmal road trip with those numbers gives a cumulative line of .212/.296/.329 (.257 BABIP) in 632 PA. Relievers in their home park have an ERA of 2.91 and RA of 3.44 against the Crew. That means, when on the road, relief pitchers turn the Crew into Gary Bennett.

As Jeff has noted, however, the average hitter in the 2008 NL isn't very good against relievers in general. In keeping with the comparison to an ex-Brewer's career numbers, the average hitter against relievers this year is Alex Sanchez. So then, of course, I wondered how the Brewers at home and on the road stacked up against the rest of the National League. I put together two tables sorted by OPS that should help the comparisons.

First, the story of NL teams on the road.

2008 NL Teams Hitting Against Relievers on the Road (through 7/1)
Team	IP	R	ER	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	RA	ERA
STL	159.0	84	78	708	613	167	33	1	22	80	128	6	5	4	.272	.360	.437	.797	.310	4.75	4.42
PHI	140.0	90	84	647	556	151	37	5	11	72	120	8	7	4	.272	.361	.415	.776	.326	5.79	5.40
CIN	143.7	71	65	641	560	152	28	1	18	63	114	4	8	6	.271	.346	.421	.767	.309	4.45	4.07
FLA	134.0	66	61	584	517	127	20	2	21	55	136	3	5	4	.246	.320	.414	.733	.291	4.43	4.10
PIT	149.7	80	72	654	583	144	28	2	21	55	125	6	6	4	.247	.316	.410	.726	.279	4.81	4.33
SDP	113.0	49	48	470	418	103	19	3	12	42	100	4	1	5	.246	.318	.392	.710	.293	3.90	3.82
SFG	149.3	65	62	631	556	138	28	3	13	60	115	7	2	6	.248	.326	.379	.705	.288	3.92	3.74
LAD	119.7	62	56	518	449	117	22	3	4	61	82	3	2	3	.261	.351	.350	.700	.309	4.66	4.21
CHC	142.3	55	52	616	529	129	28	1	11	69	126	8	5	5	.244	.337	.363	.700	.297	3.48	3.29
WSN	123.0	62	54	538	468	111	24	0	9	58	107	7	3	2	.237	.329	.346	.675	.288	4.54	3.95
ATL	126.0	46	42	532	473	112	27	2	7	55	101	1	1	2	.237	.316	.347	.663	.286	3.29	3.00
NYM	139.0	63	58	580	521	123	26	2	13	43	98	2	6	8	.236	.293	.369	.661	.263	4.08	3.76
COL	148.3	58	52	625	561	137	30	1	9	50	134	5	8	1	.244	.311	.349	.661	.305	3.52	3.16
ARI	137.0	47	43	572	486	98	17	3	14	66	128	6	8	6	.202	.301	.335	.637	.240	3.09	2.82
MIL	151.7	58	49	632	556	118	28	2	11	55	132	12	6	3	.212	.296	.329	.625	.257	3.44	2.91
HOU	120.0	42	33	487	438	97	13	3	9	37	87	2	3	7	.221	.281	.326	.607	.252	3.15	2.48
NL	2195.7	998	909	9435	8284	2024	408	34	205	921	1833	84	76	70	.244	.324	.376	.700	.288	4.09	3.73

Yuck. That's not fun to look at. Hopefully more hits fall in soon and that BABIP gets closer to the league average. On the brighter side, the Brewers are doing better at home.

2008 NL Teams Hitting Against Relievers at Home (through 7/1)
Team	IP	R	ER	BF	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	RA	ERA
CHC	138.3	107	95	665	565	172	31	0	24	80	131	8	6	6	.304	.395	.487	.881	.356	6.96	6.18
ATL	132.0	84	80	613	517	139	26	5	16	73	113	8	9	6	.269	.364	.431	.796	.312	5.73	5.45
MIL	113.7	50	48	491	430	107	15	8	20	49	79	3	6	3	.249	.328	.460	.788	.260	3.96	3.80
CIN	120.0	63	58	525	456	112	19	2	21	58	107	3	8	0	.246	.335	.434	.769	.277	4.73	4.35
PHI	126.0	67	65	552	484	118	26	3	20	54	107	8	4	2	.244	.328	.434	.762	.273	4.79	4.64
COL	125.7	63	56	543	473	117	26	7	12	54	104	5	10	1	.247	.330	.408	.738	.293	4.51	4.01
SFG	112.7	46	42	480	422	110	21	6	6	45	82	4	3	6	.261	.333	.382	.715	.306	3.67	3.36
HOU	129.0	53	46	549	487	121	30	3	11	49	92	4	6	3	.248	.320	.390	.711	.284	3.70	3.21
ARI	120.3	52	41	501	443	104	26	4	12	42	113	8	3	5	.235	.309	.393	.702	.285	3.89	3.07
FLA	123.0	54	52	523	452	103	19	2	16	54	138	6	6	5	.228	.315	.385	.700	.287	3.95	3.80
LAD	124.0	44	37	525	466	117	26	1	7	44	99	5	8	2	.251	.321	.356	.677	.304	3.19	2.69
STL	128.3	38	34	543	480	112	24	2	8	50	85	4	8	1	.233	.310	.342	.652	.268	2.66	2.38
PIT	139.0	54	50	586	516	122	27	1	8	50	99	6	8	6	.236	.308	.339	.647	.275	3.50	3.24
NYM	151.0	47	43	636	543	120	22	2	6	77	113	3	11	2	.221	.320	.302	.622	.268	2.80	2.56
SDP	161.7	51	47	657	584	121	14	2	14	58	150	8	4	3	.207	.286	.310	.596	.253	2.84	2.62
WSN	129.3	40	38	528	457	93	17	1	6	60	106	6	3	2	.204	.303	.284	.587	.251	2.78	2.64
NL	2074.0	913	832	8917	7775	1888	369	49	207	897	1718	89	103	53	.243	.326	.383	.709	.285	3.96	3.61

It sucks that the team hasn't been able to plate more runs against relievers at home with their good hitting. It's a testament to their winning ways in Miller Park that they've had the second-fewest relief innings pitched against them there (fewer ninth innings). Once again, hopefully that BABIP gets up to league average levels.

Of course, now that tonight's game has seen relievers and Rickie Weeks has given the Crew the lead all of this is out of date anyway. :)

As noted by PagsBrewCrew, "CBS has declared we don't exist anymore." link to full-size image. link to presumably-soon-to-be-corrected standings page.

TheJay — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 04:38:58 -0000

Big Boat Bashes Bob's Bark

TheJay — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 15:29:23 -0000

A 550-foot freighter ran into Mr. Baseball's boat right before his fishing tournament. Luckily he was able to procure another boat to kick off the proceedings.

Mark Mendicus Has A Problem With Prince Fielder

TheJay — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 16:29:19 -0000

"The historically temperamental owner did not hold back his opinions after their latest humiliating defeat, telling the New York Post that Prince Fielder "had better start hitting some [expletive] home runs already" before making several vicious personal attacks on the first baseman, calling him a "[expletive]," a "fat bastard," and a "fat [expletive]" in the course of one statement."

LaPorta Day-to-Day With "Bruised Back"

TheJay — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 15:17:00 -0000

"The damage was done without one of Huntsville's top run producers as well. Right fielder Matt LaPorta made a running catch going to his left to end the first inning, slamming hard into the wall. The Milwaukee Brewers' top prospect stayed on the ground, writhing in pain for more than five minutes as trainer Dave Yeager and manager Don Money rushed out to the warning track to check on him. LaPorta walked in under his own power but left the game with what Money said was a "bruised back" that would make him day-to-day." If it's his back, hopefully it's not a recurring thing.

Jason Kendall Wants Your All-Star Votes!

TheJay — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:23:14 -0000

Okay, so the article doesn't quote him saying that so it seems like Dave Fultz--whoever he is--is speaking for the catcher. Either way, I'm going to hope you'll excuse me for not voting for a guy who's hit .217/.296/.299 since his hot streak to start the year (yay cherry-picking), no matter how well he calls a game.

Bullpens Around the NL

TheJay — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 01:57:40 -0000

Getting Yosted usually posts these but I figured I'd steal the idea and put in the pitch count and batters faced numbers, as well, since it's been requested. The Brewers now have the second-fewest relief innings pitched in the National League, but make up for it by throwing the most average pitches per inning and per batter. Getting rid of Turnbow's numbers (something that reminds me of the Cubs fans' pleas in the middle of last season to ignore Wade Miller's numbers when looking at the pitching staff) results in a bullpen that's a little better than league average (whatever that is) by ERA and a tiny bit worse by WHIP. The pitchers per plate appearance numbers go up a little, courtesy of Derrick's ability to get hit hard early in plate appearances where he doesn't issue walks. Finally, the Brewers and Rockies share the league lead (EDIT: er, duh, obviously I missed the Padres when I wrote that) for most pitchers used in relief, though Dave Bush's one appearance hardly makes him a reliever.

Maybe the next time the team feels the bullpen is overworked, they can tell their relievers not to walk and/or pitch around so many guys.

Team	GP	App	W	L	S	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	RA	ERA	WHIP	BF	Pit	P/PA	P/IP	# Relievers
San Diego Padres	65	182	11	15	14	230.0	230	117	107	17	93	177	3	4.58	4.19	1.40	989	3868	3.91	16.82	18
Florida Marlins	62	200	12	10	11	222.3	189	98	90	21	109	182	7	3.97	3.64	1.34	951	3818	4.01	17.17	11
Pittsburgh Pirates	63	183	14	6	14	220.0	220	101	97	21	98	154	8	4.13	3.97	1.45	965	3591	3.72	16.32	10
Chicago Cubs	64	194	12	9	23	216.3	186	84	75	23	74	199	12	3.49	3.12	1.20	905	3502	3.87	16.19	13
Washington Nationals	64	194	12	11	12	214.7	212	113	106	25	104	180	6	4.74	4.44	1.47	949	3696	3.89	17.22	13
Atlanta Braves	64	214	8	13	10	211.3	174	92	81	16	94	176	9	3.92	3.45	1.27	895	3469	3.88	16.41	12
Colorado Rockies	63	189	8	12	14	208.7	205	102	90	16	89	158	9	4.40	3.88	1.41	907	3586	3.95	17.19	14
San Francisco Giants	63	189	11	13	17	208.3	198	102	94	23	92	172	12	4.41	4.06	1.39	912	3553	3.90	17.05	12
Cincinnati Reds	64	196	9	7	12	208.0	196	97	88	26	91	186	8	4.20	3.81	1.38	909	3578	3.94	17.20	13
New York Mets	62	207	6	9	13	201.0	188	103	86	19	78	161	16	4.61	3.85	1.32	871	3283	3.77	16.33	11
Los Angeles Dodgers	63	164	14	6	9	200.7	178	71	64	16	72	184	9	3.18	2.87	1.25	848	3354	3.96	16.71	11
St. Louis Cardinals	65	196	8	12	22	196.3	195	89	84	19	85	141	8	4.08	3.85	1.43	853	3321	3.89	16.92	13
Houston Astros	64	191	13	10	18	195.0	191	93	85	29	74	159	5	4.29	3.92	1.36	844	3246	3.85	16.65	11
Philadelphia Phillies	65	174	17	7	19	192.0	163	59	55	10	87	151	4	2.77	2.58	1.30	806	3058	3.79	15.93	7
Milwaukee Brewers	63	176	13	11	22	191.3	174	89	86	20	103	169	5	4.19	4.05	1.45	837	3364	4.02	17.58	14
Arizona Diamondbacks	63	171	4	10	16	178.0	148	82	70	16	72	150	15	4.15	3.54	1.24	762	2848	3.74	16.00	10
NL Average	64	189	11	10	15	206.0	190	93	85	20	88	169	9	4.08	3.71	1.35	888	3446	3.88	16.73	12
Brewers (No Turnbow)	63	168	13	10	22	185.0	162	78	75	19	90	164	4	3.79	3.65	1.36	793	3194	4.03	17.26	13

Tom H Baits the "Yost Bashers"

TheJay — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:24:58 -0000

"It was a season-high fifth consecutive victory for the Brewers and seventh in eight games on this home stand, allowing them to move three games over .500. And, just like that, no one is howling for manager Ned Yost's job. OK, maybe that's a stretch. The Yost bashers won't quit until he's sitting on his porch in Georgia, sipping a mint julep."