
TheK-man
Mar 10, 2010 May 28, 2012 14 9539
Just an opinionated fan, like the rest of you, only better looking.
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The Drake Equation & The Odds Of Loving Football
I've been developing a few resentments lately towards the NFL because of this whole lockout and CBA issue that has been inflicted upon the fans, and so I decided to combine my love for astronomy and science, in a search for reasons to remain grateful, for this game that I love so dearly.
First, I decided to examine the odds of even being born in a place within the known universe where I could grow to love a game like football.
Enter.........................The Drake Equation: Nc = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
The Drake Equation was developed in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake. It can determine how many possible intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy.
The equation represents the following:
N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.
Question: How many stars are in the Milky Way Galaxy?
Answer: Current estimates are 200 to 400 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them.
Question: What percentage of stars have planetary systems?
Answer: Current estimates range from 20% to 50%.
ne represents the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life.
Question: For each star that has a planetary system, how many planets are capable of sustaining life?
Answer: Estimates range from 1 to 2.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves.
Question: On what percentage of the planets that are capable of sustaining life does life actually evolve?
Answer: Current estimates are 100% (where life can evolve it will) .
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves.
Question: On the planets where life does evolve, what percentage evolves intelligent life?
Answer: Estimates are 50% .
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate.
Question: What percentage of intelligent life forms have the means and the desire to communicate?
Answer: 10% to 20%.
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations may survive.
Question: For each civilization that does communicate, for what fraction of the planet's life does the civilization survive?
Answer: This is the most vague question. Using the Earth as our model, the expected lifetime of our Solar System is approximately 10 billion years. Already communication by radio has been for less than 100 years. How long can our civilization survive without destroying ourselves as some predict or will we overcome our problems and survive indefinately? If doomsday came today this figure would be 1/100,000,000th. If we survive for 10,000 more years this figure would be 1/1,000,000th. When all of these variables are multiplied, we get:
Nc, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.
So now, by applying my own set variables to The Drake Equation, which anyone can do, I can determine the odds of football being played anywhere else in our little Milky Way galaxy.
N* = the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy: 400 Billion
fp = fraction of stars with planets around them: 50%
ne = number of planets per star ecologically able to sustain life: .5%
fl = fraction of those planets where life actually evolves: 1%
fi = the fraction of fl that evolves intelligent life: 1 in 1,000,000
fc = the fraction of fi that communicates: 1%
fL = the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations survives: 10% or a billion years.
Nc = the possible number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy = 1.000000000000002
or................................................1 possible planet.
Of course, your own answers to each element of the equation will generate a different calculation, but these are mine and it's worth noting that using the variables of Dr. Drake himself, the figure skyrockets, to 10,000 planets in the Milky Way galaxy which are inhabited by communicable life forms.
Nonetheless, my conclusions, however flawed they might be to Dr. Drake, is that if there is another life supporting planet in the galaxy out there with communicating life forms other than earth, the odds of my being able to attend a football game there of the kind I have grown to love and enjoy over the last 45 years since childhood, is pretty much zero, and I would have to stick by that analysis, even if there were 10,000.
So, at this juncture I really need to count myself pretty damn fortunate, to have been born in a place in the universe that supports life, and where I can sit on my butt in front of a widescreen HDTV, remote in hand and beer in the other, watching the game that I love.
I figure the odds of this alone, have to be like picking all the winning numbers in the lottery including the powerball every week on a 1.00 dollar bet, for 2 million consecutive weeks without a single loss.
That's pretty fortunate, ain't it?
I'm becoming more grateful for the players and owners, as I speak.
But let's take it a step further.
Of all the species on the planet earth, most of which are completely oblivious to the existence of NFL stadiums, including the flies, ants, spiders, insects, bacteria, and every sea based life form.....the odds of just being born a human on this planet, are an unknown number of trillions to one.
But lets continue on the journey and further analyze my incredible luck.
I, Cosmo Kramer, was fortunate enough, of all the oblivious to football life forms I could have been, was born, and I would have to assume since you're reading this you were also, a human being, capable of viewing and enjoying the game of football.
Further, I was born, in the bread basket, of that wealthiest country on the planet, and into the top 1 percent of wealth in that country.
That's pretty damn lucky there too, don't ya think?
My gratefulness meter is rising.
But it doesn't end there.....the last time I checked, no one got to pick and choose, what race, region or family they are born into. I could have been born to a drug addicted mom with no father, in a refugee camp, eating donated corn meal from a small wooden bowl every day to survive......but for some unknown reason.....
I was born, a white, anglo-saxin protestant male, or if you will, the one race within the most opportunistic region on this planet, with the path of least resistance in terms of discrimination and job opportunity. A prime candidate for NFL fandom.
Even more luck, heaped on top of my already incalculable amount of luck.
Luck, luck, and more luck. I mean really, how much luck can one person endure?
I have now been enjoying the greatest game ever invented for about 45 years, and now that there's a possibility that I won't get to watch it in 2011, it's time for me to reflect on the odds of this life form, ever having the opportunity to have loved the game of football at all..............even for a fleeting moment.
And so, after further analysis, I have decided to embrace my gratefulness toward the NFL with renewed vigor, and resolve to check my resentments at the door, and if in fact I don't get to cheer for my Chiefs at all in 2011, I will obviously be immensely disappointed, but.........because I now know the odds..............of ever having loved at all....
I will remain incredibly thankful, and through it all, hopeful, that soon enough, the stars in our galaxy will line up in such a way, as to guide the fickled finger of football fate, towards another season of enjoying the finest game, that humanity has ever known.
And so, now I know the Chiefs will take the field in 2011, they just have to......
.....................................................because I'm one lucky bastard.
Go Chiefs!
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WalterFootball.com Slaps Dog Killer Tag on # 2 FA Quarterback Michael Vick
I was stunned and sickened to see such an industry respected website resort to such a disrespectful act as their reference to Michael Vick as Dog Killer.
As repulsed as I was by Vicks actions, I'm equally repulsed by Walterfootball for resorting to this kind of childish nonsense.
It's sad.
To see what they did, click on the fanshot title above.
It seems that Mike Golic and Mark Schlerith are big Chiefs fans now. Golic wants to work the game for the BBQ.
This One Is For Dad
It's been about 8 months since my dad checked into the hospital, missing leg and all, from complications of Diabetes for the last time, and this will be the first complete Chiefs season that I will witness without him.
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Why Does Life Reward Selfish Men?
I was reading about Albert Haynesworth and his latest revolt against his current team, the Washington Redskins.
If you recall...Haynesworth left the Titans as a free agent last year and signed a seven-year, $100 million contract that includes $41 million in guaranteed money to join the Redskins.
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2011 Draft Prediction: Chiefs go Powe
I know it's a little early but I can't help getting excited about the prospect of the Chiefs drafting Jerell Powe from Ole Miss with their first pick in the 2011 draft.
He would blend right in being a former team mate of McCluster and Lewis and is ranked on Walterfootball.com as the best NT prospect in the 2011 draft.
Couldn't find too much in the way of highlights on him, but here's a few youtube links.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGZJTTxi5wU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzIYi56Cd5Y&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63CaXg1oKCE&feature=related
This man can eat some space. I would love to see the Chiefs sign him.
If not Powe, then who?
from Walterfootball.com:
- Jerrell Powe, Ole Miss
Height: 6-2. Weight: 330.
Projected 40 Time: 5.35.
Projected Round (2011): 1-2.
5/6/10: The top nose tackle in the 2011 NFL Draft, Jerrell Powe collected 12 TFL and two sacks in 2009, earning All-SEC Second Team honors.
Marty & Elvis: Deja vu in Denver?
By almost anyones account, it has become apparent that Josh McDaniels has undboubtedly tied his coaching future to the success of Tim Tebow by taking him in the first round of the 2010 NFL draft.
My analysis of this situation leads me to believe that because of this, Broncos fans could be in for a very rough and a very frustrating time.
Why?
When a coach knows that a Quarterbacks failure will likely spell the end of his job, a funny thing tends to happen.
Denial.
I believe there is a distinct possibility, that Josh McDaniels when the time is right, will begin sitting superior talent on the bench in favor of the guy he's fallen blindly in love with.
Great for Chiefs fans! We've been there.
The following is not to say that Marty was a bad coach, because I love Marty Schottenheimer, and is not to say that Elvis Grbac was a bad QB, because he wasn't, although I did not love him.
It is simply meant to support an argument that Bronco fans may be in for a rough time with Tebow and McDaniels.
Flashback:.
In 1997 Marty Schottenheimer engineered the signing of Elvis Grbac away from the San Francisco 49'ers, and when Elvis went down with injuries Rich Gannon took the reins of the Chiefs offense and steered the Chiefs to a 13-3 season.
Then... Marty Schottenheimer, in complete denial about who the best QB was, returned Grbac to the starting QB position to start the playoff game against the Bronco's.
At this time in KC, everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE, from the smallest red-headed step-child, to the most knowledgeable of fans, knew, and I do mean KNEW, that the best quarterback was sitting on the bench.
This fact is indisputable.
There was only ONE person, in the entire metropolitan area, maybe the entire country, who didn't know that Rich Gannon was a far superior quarterback....Marty Schottenhiemer himself. Love IS Blind.
The next year, 1998, was a long year for Chiefs fans. After Grbac was injured in week 1, Grbac and Gannon would split snaps, and every time Grbac was favored by Marty over Rich Gannon, fan rage grew.
We later learned, ironically, that prior to the Bronco's playoff game, then coach Mike Shannahan, in the pre-grame meeting in the Bronco's locker room, told his players:
"Whatever you do, don't injure Elvis Grbac".
Unfortunately for us, they listened to Shannahan, and the Chiefs lost 14-10 to a Denver team who absolutely knew they should have lost.
The Gannon vs. Grbac denial by Marty had become epic, to the extent that opposing coaches were giving Elvis Grbac a free ride, lest Gannon come off the bench to defeat them.
Denial IS a bitch.
So here's to a long-deserved payback being potentially around the corner.....and the hope that there will come the day, that Todd Haley can go into the Chiefs locker room, muster the troops, and tell them................."today, we get revenge, a dish best served cold.....so men....
.........whatever you do, don't injure Tim Tebow."
From Wikipedia: Rich Gannon
In February 1999 he was signed as a free agent by the Oakland Raiders. He excelled in Jon Gruden's West Coast offense and was voted to the Pro Bowl in his first year as a Raider, the first of four straight selections. In 2001 and 2002, he won the Pro Bowl MVP award consecutively, a feat achieved by no other NFL player. Gannon won the NFL Most Valuable Player Award after a record-setting 2002 season, throwing for 4,689 yards and 26 touchdowns, which helped the Raiders advance to Super Bowl XXXVII. He led the league in with 418 completions on 618 attempts.
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She's Got Betty Davis Eyes & He's Got Jimmy Clausen Hands
Ok, I confess, I don't know who the hell has Betty Davis eyes, but I do know who has Jimmy Clausen hands. Drum roll please.................................................................ME!
Jimmy Clausen's stock continues to rise among NFL insiders and Walterfootball.com has him going at number 4 to the Washington Redskins.
Despite the fact that he's got great stats and has played in an "NFL style offense", I think drafting Clausen poses a higher risk to teams than has been reported.
Why?
His hands.
Upon learning that Jimmy Clausen had the smallest hands of any Quarterback at this years NFL combine, that being 9 inches from the base of the palm to the top of the "bird" finger, I got out a ruler and measured my own throwing hand.
Guess what? Nine inches exactly. I've got Jimmy Clausen hands.
I should point out here, that nine inches is nine inches whether attached to a Jimmy Clausen or an ageing and out of shape, draft beer guzzling, meat and potatoes eating, fifty-something dad, like myself. Jimmy couldn't palm a basketball for any longer than I can. We have the same ability to grip things. Period.
To further emphasize my point, how many QB fumbles do you think you'd see, if they were throwing a tennis ball out there?. I would argue none. They can completely wrap their entire hand around a tennis ball, and wave it quickly through the air, without fear of losing control. The only way to jar it loose would be to first render the quarterback unconscious so that he loses control of his hand muscles.
Now...obviously, I'm no Jimmy Clausen, but that doesn't mean I can't get a feel as to what it feels like to throw a regulation NFL sized football with a nine inch hand, and I wanted to do just that..... so I grabbed a ball, and went out back for a good old fashion game of "go deep" with my brother.
It's worthy to point out at this juncture, that a regulation NFL football, is 28 inches to 28.5 inches around.
So..... a nine inch hand is capable of grasping about one inch less than one third of the ball's circumference.
For this nine inch hand, it became apparent to me, that in order to throw the ball successfully, I had to rely more on arm mechanics than hand and wrist mechanics during my release in order to maintain control of the ball and obtain a spiral, and to get the ball moving in the right direction.
The second I thought I had it down, and forgot to respect gravity or use the right upper arm motion and mechanics to get a good release on the ball, disaster ensued.
Like I said, I'm no Jimmy Clausen.
The point I'm trying to make here is that I believe that a QB with 9 inch hands constitutes a significant risk for fumbling and throwing IT's in the faster game which is the NFL.
How many times have we seen a hurried QB's arm go back and then forward, only to see the ball flop out at the beginning of his forward throwing motion?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tmqpncAtpE
Mix in a little NFL contact at the time his throwing arm is in motion, and I believe, you have a big problem.
If I'm the Washington Redskin's GM, this is a factor which should not be overlooked, and if I'm the one making the pick, I would pass on Jimmy Clausen.
I'm not saying he'll be a certain bust in the NFL, or that he shouldn't be drafted. Just that I think he's too risky for this reason to go in the first round. If I need a QB and he's there in the third round (which he won't be of course) well then sure..I'd take a chance on him. It's not my money anyway.
I know many of you will think that's insane and Jimmy may prove to be an exception to the rule and have a long career despite this adversity, but I can't help considering how a nine inch throwing hand translates to the speed game of the NFL.
There have been countless 1st round quarterbacks go bust in the NFL. Can anyone say, "Ryan Leaf"?
Amazing to think that he was the number 2 pick overall by the Chargers in the 98 draft, and that at the time, the big debate was who was better, Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf. The amazing thing is that the Leaf fans, didn't think he was better than Manning, they knew he was.
This year, it's Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen being touted as the year's two best available QB's, and while I hate to disappoint all you Jimmy fans, I just have to say, that at this point, I think that Jimmy Clausen has a good chance of becoming the next Ryan Leaf.
Why? Because he has my sized hands.
I wouldn't draft me and I wouldn't draft Jimmy Clausen.
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Close Encounters With A Chiefs Legend: Buck Buchanan
From The FanPosts -Joel
When I was 10 years old, Buck Buchanan was my favorite Chief. The year was 1970, and the Chiefs had just stomped the Raiders in the AFL Championship game en route to a victory in Super Bowl IV, so when my dad decided to take us down to old Municipal airport, to welcome home the Champions of the AFL, I was excited.
We waited in the mob for the players to file off the plane, and when the giant Buck Buchanan emerged and began to co-mingle with the fans and sign autographs, I was in awe. I was dying to get Buck's attention, just to say "nice game Buck", and to get his autograph, but quickly realized I had no paper for him to sign.
Glancing around the terminal, I noticed an old wooden yardstick that someone had thrown away, sticking out of a trash can. Thinking on my feet, I blitzed over to it, snapped it up, ran back, and began pushing my way through the crowd toward the front, waving the tool over my head and yelling, "Buck, Buck, Buck". The yardstick quickly caught his eye and noticing my dilemma....he immediately ceased to sign for the adults, reached over the crowd and clutched his giant hand around the stick......"What's your name buddy?" He then signed the stick, and handed it back over the greedy mob to me, and said, "Thanks for coming out to meet me."
Other than watching the man at old Municipal and on TV, that was the first close encounter with my childhood idol...and the legend which was Junious "Buck" Buchanan.
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Toughest Chief Ever: Sherrill Headrick, Played With a Broken Neck
They don't build them like this anymore:
From Wikipedia:
Sherrill Headrick (March 13, 1937 – September 10, 2008) was an American college and Professional Football player from Texas Christian University.
In 1960, Headrick came to the American Football League's Dallas Texans as an undrafted linebacker. He went on to star for the Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs.
In his first year with the Texans, Headrick set the standard for playing hurt, after fracturing a vertebra in his neck in a pre-game collision at Houston. Despite feeling pain in his neck, he played the entire game. He learned of the fracture five days later, but went on to play the following week, earning the nickname "Psycho", a reputation he fueled by banging his head against his locker and working himself up to the point of nausea before games. In his book "The American Football League - A Year-by-Year History, 1960-1969" Ed Gruver quotes Texans/Chiefs coach Hank Stram as saying that Headrick, who refused to wear hip pads, had the highest pain threshold [he'd] ever seen in an athlete. Headrick played with a broken neck, infected gums, and a fractured thumb. When an injury left the bone in his finger protruding from the skin, Headrick popped the bones in place without missing a play.
The results of these injuries included debilitating arthritis, and he used a wheelchair for the last ten years of his life.[1]
__________________________________________
Imagine a guy playing with a broken neck in today's NFL.
Not gonna happen.
If we could only draft a few guys like this.....problem solved.
Here's the Wikipedia link for Headrick:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherrill_Headrick
I wonder who in the upcoming draft is the most like Sherrill Headrick?
Pre-Draft Power Rankings: NFL's Top Ten Teams
Considering the off-season moves and transactions leading up to the draft, I thought it would be fun to post my power rankings for my top ten teams subject to modification after the draft, along with a brief comment and opinion.
1) Colts: As long as Peyton is at the helm, they'll be competing for another super bowl in 2010.
2) Saints: Drew makes this team the early favorite to repeat, but I don't think they can beat the Colts twice.
3) Vikings: If Favre returns, their offense is just too potent not to be in the top 3.
4) Bears: Off season moves catapult "DaBears" to number 4. This is my "out there" ranking, and I'm sure many will think I'm crazy. But let's wait and see.
5) Jets: The balance of power is shifting in the AFC East, and I think it's time that Brady and company are dethroned for the division title.
6) Patriots: Bill Bellichek doesn't seem like such a genius to me anymore.
7) Cowboys: Can't seem to win when it counts the most, but loads of talent on this team.
8) Eagles: McNabb will be traded and rising star Kevin Kolb proves he's the whip cream on the chocolate sundae in Philly.
9) Packers: Aaron Rodgers and company played too well to rank them out of the top 10.
10) Cardinals: Too many questions at the QB position to rank them any higher.
Note: The Chiefs will surprise a lot of people and will rise to the 11th spot in the power rankings by mid-season while San Diego nose dives despite Phillip Rivers. I think the frustration of going 13 and 3 and having nothing to show for it......again....will take it's toll on the Bolts. I believe that 10 and 6 can win our division this year, and the Chiefs have a good chance of winning 10.
Our division is up for grabs.
All rankings are subject to change after the draft.
Ok fans, sound off please.
Must See: Jamaal Charles Highlight Reel. He Ain't "Average".
If anyone can watch the following, and then tell me with a clear conscience, that they STILL think Jamaal is "average", I will kiss their ass in Walmart's window. I'm over 50 and have seen a lot of NFL backs dating back to the league's inception. OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson, LaDanian, LJ,, Barry Sanders, etc., the list is long, but I've never seen a highlight reel from any RB that illustrates the rare combination of balance, agility, speed, awareness, and overall raw talent and potential of the guy in this video. We should be glad he's a Chief, and not a Raider, and I am. If you can find a better RB highlight reel, please send me the link, I'd love to see it.
http://chiefsinformer.com/804/chiefs-player-highlight-reels/
Hopefully, I'll get to enjoy this guy running for the Chiefs in the Superbowl....some day.
TheK-Man
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Retrospective: The Jared Allen Trade
If someone asked me today, knowing what I now know, that by trading Jared Allen, we could obtain Branden Albert, a fixture on our O-Line, most likely for years to come, AND the surging superstar running back, Jamaal Charles, and that the Chiefs would save approximately 74 million dollars over the next five years, the amount it took the Vikings to get him signed and in theory, the very same money that is now paying in full Cassels entire contract obligation from the Chiefs.....well let's just say I would have been willing to wear leather chaps at Missy B's on a Saturday night in order to accomplish that.
One could argue, and I am, that trading Allen at that time, freed the Chiefs spending spirit enough to allow Scott Pioli to bring with him from New England, our franchise QB of the future in Matt Cassel.
Yes, I still believe, and am trusting that Scott knows more than me when it comes to talent, and that Matt can and will become the Trentesque QB that we have come to expect behind Center.
I'm sorry, but I just gotta believe baby.
So, if someone asked me back then on that darkest of days, in the minds of many Chiefs fans....to approve the following::
Trade Jared Allen to the Vikings.....but....KNOWING that we would get in return .......
an O-line fixture in Branden Albert,
IN ADDITION to the next greatest and I believe destined to be the best RB in the NFL in Jamaal Charles.....
PLUS, your franchise QB of the future with his entire contract paid for by the money freed up from not having to retain the services of Mr. Allen.....well........
WOULDN'T WE REALLY HAVE TO DO THAT????
I think so.
The more time that passes, the more I like that we unloaded Allen when we did.
What do my fan buddies think?
The K-Man
Chiefs Solve Two of 2009's Biggest Problems With Jones & Urban
I was thrilled with the Thomas Jones signing. One of last years biggest concerns was the fumbling of insurgent superstar Jamaal Charles. The signing of TJ, I think should solve this problem. If not only for the simple reason, and don't be surprised, that if JC fumbles again early and often in 2010, that Todd will press Weis to make TJ the primary back. I think JC will be ok, but it's worth noting, that noone hates a fumbler more than Todd Haley.
Second, I love the Urban signing, if for no other reason, that we can now comfortably refuse to offer Bobby Wade a contract. If anyone thinks that Scott and Todd, have forgotton the half-baked attempt at a Matt Cassell bomb (excuse me, but attempt is being kind, he didn't even extend his arms toward the ball) last season, well I would have to say that that fan would be sorely mistaken. In addition to that, Wade's public bickering and arguing with Todd on the sideline, has definitely not been forgotton. I would go so far as to say that Todd has been so anxious to be rid of Wade since these turns of events, that he has been begging Scott for justification to can his butt ever since. I for one, am still angry at Wade's performance and attitude with the Chiefs, and toward our first year Head Coach.
Todd, your time has finally come. Have fun.
Bye Bye, Mr. WADE.
TheK-Man
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