Here is part 2 of my Bulls draft preview (part 1 is here). I'll continue the emphasis on wings and look at two guys I think would be good picks for the Bulls should they decide to stay at 29.

The Bulls Should Draft Who I Tell Them To Draft (Part 2 - wings to take)

1. JAE CROWDER (SG/SF/PF, MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY, SENIOR)

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jae-Crowder-10084/stats/

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jae-crowder-1.html

As Jae Crowder is a very unique player, I’ll attempt to define his NBA horizon using a variety of comparisons to other college players.

Someone who I think Crowder resembles as a college player is Jared Dudley, which is convenient since I also think his role in the NBA will be similar. Here is a comparison of their senior seasons:

These are not identical players by any means, but I think they have a lot of similar patterns in their production and bear a resemblance to each other offensively. One could see them becoming comparable NBA players.

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It has come to my attention recently that Washington may want out of their pick if they fall lower than the number 1 spot. With their pick still high enough to grab Florida SG Bradley Beal, would anyone be interested in the Bulls making a move for it? It's usually very hard to move into the lottery, but only three years ago the Wizards gave away their #5 pick in a much better draft for Mike Miller and Randy Foye, so it might not be as hard as one might think. Perhaps the Bulls can make the following trade:

Bulls get: 3rd pick in the 2012 NBA draft and Andray Blatche.

Wizards get: Kyle Korver and Rip Hamilton.

Why the Wizards do it: The Wizards need to start playing good basketball right now. Or at least not horrible basketball. Towards the end of last year they began to win a few games with a new, defense-first identity, and offensive rebounding. The problem is they do not have enough 1) scorers and 2) veterans who know how to play winning ball. Korver and Hamilton can give them both these things better than anyone on their current roster. Also, with the addition of two more legit players the Wizards will have something approximating a real NBA lineup. Additionally, they get to dump Blatche's contract and general knuckleheadedness, improving both their short term locker room chemistry and long term cap flexibility.

Why the Bulls do it: This very much depends on your thoughts about Beal going forward. If you like him a lot, he potentially provides things the Bulls really need while strengthening their core group of players. Beal can potentially give them go-to scoring, 3pt shooting, ball handling and young legs to help win games and make Derrick's job easier.

However, even if you like Beal a lot you still have to acknowledge this is a risk. Beal might give the Bulls go-to scoring and 3pt shooting in the future, but it is a little worrisome that he did not do those things in college. Actually, I'm not that concerned about his 3pt shot. His mechanics look good and he had a reputation in high school of being Ray Allen-esque. I'm fairly comfortable asserting his freshman season was flukey shooting-wise. His low scoring though does worry me. Stud wing players, even ones on good teams, score 20 points per40. They just do. Beal fell far short of that at 17.4. Even if you pretend he shot 40% from 3 his freshman year, that puts his per40 scoring at 18.5. His excellent rebounding/steal/block numbers suggest he can be a 2-way player in the NBA, and he's only 18 years old, but are you convinced he can be a #2 option at the next level?

I really think I do this if I am the Bulls (and assuming this works out CBA-wise-- I'm an idiot when it comes to that stuff). Role players can always be had through the draft and free agency if you are sufficiently intelligent. The difficult thing is to acquire and retain a core group of players that can keep you contending for a long period of time. Right now the Bulls have a long term core of Rose/Noah/Taj and maybe Deng. Adding a player like Beal could push that group over the top.

I also like the timing of this for Beal's development. With Rose and Deng out and the season wasted next year, Beal would have the opportunity to take on a lot of offensive responsibility. And, of course, learn how to play from an elite coach/teacher like Thibs. Here's a highlight video of Bradley Beal:

Bradley Beal Highlight Mix (via BasketballHighlight Mixes)

[Thanks to frequent commenter TheMoon for providing some draft coverage to BaB this year. He did so last year in a well-received FanPost and graciously volunteered to do a series for this one. I can't say I'm even on board with the entire premise of upside-drafting and doing a complete a water-treading year, but this should at the very least be a great conversation starter on some possible names. Because, honestly we shouldn't consider anybody an actual expert - yfbb]

The Bulls Should Draft Who I Tell Them To Draft (Part 1 - wings to avoid)

Yay, it's draft time! That oh-so-magical time when all the good young players in the country get released from basketball hell and make their way into a league where I can actually stomach to watch them. As the Bulls will be making the 29th pick in this draft, I think we should take a look at a swath of players and see who the Bulls should select and who they should stay away from.

In these posts I will be making a few assumptions:

1) The next Bulls season starts in 2013. Everything before that is just a glorified Summer League.

2) It follows from the first assumption that the Bulls should feel no pressure to use their draft pick to fill certain positions for the sake of building a "complete team" next year (i.e. "And god said unto GarPaxdorf: Bring me two of every positional player, and thou shalt have a true and balanced NBA roster, and thy fanbase shall be as suckers hewing to the keel of your ark, and thy profits shall be as numerous as the sand on the seashore.").

3) Because of points 1 and 2, it would be especially reasonable for the Bulls to draft the BPA.

4) The Bulls don't want to draft a player who will take too long to develop though. Let's say: 3 or more years is too long.

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Let me begin by saying that this is not a panic post. At least I don't think it's a panic post. The Bulls seem to me to be exactly the team I thought they were going into this season, and none of the results of this season's contests have changed my mind. This is a very good team and we are very lucky to be following it. But it's kind of pleasurable to look at the team in new ways and in greater detail; so I want to look at where this team is now and where they are going, and to get there I first want to look at the team's most controversial player.

Let's consider the following two players (A and B):

[numbers courtesy of basketball reference.com and 82games.com]

They look really similar, right? You've probably guessed that player A is Carlos Boozer from this season. Player B is Antonio McDyess from 2007, when he was 32 years old. Now whatever your prior opinions of Carlos Boozer are, and however you want to define the expectations a reasonable fan should have of him, I think you have to agree the an offense whose second option looks remarkably like a 32 year old Antonio McDyess is an offense with problems.

Now it is my opinion that if Boozer ends this season with his current level of production he will have failed to hit reasonable expectations set for him. He is being asked to be a second option on offense and he is paid like a second option on offense; his production is that of a third option. I should point out here that I do not think one has to conclude that Boozer must be amnestied as soon as possible, since he is a solid player and I have my doubts about the Bulls' ability to adequately replace him in free agency. Also he remains a highly skilled semi-interior player; if he gets hot in the playoffs the Bulls could really go on a run. I just want to be clear that a team without a legitimate second option on offense and spotty perimeter shooting is a team with serious flaws.

It is also my opinion that the team as currently constituted is a very likeable team with a championship window of approximately one year: this one. After that the Bulls will probably loose some of their prized depth, while the Mirotic/Charlotte-pick reload will still be a hope for the future. I think starting next year the Bulls will look less like the contenders they currently are and more like the '12 Orlando Magic, which is to say near-contenders.

This is why I believe the Bulls need to go all in for a Howard trade. Phone Otis Smith and say, "Anything and everything we have outside of Rose is yours if you want it." I have noticed lately some commenters dismiss Howard as perhaps too light-hearted to be a champion. I think this seriously misses how big a deal a Rose/Howard pairing would be on the court. The Bulls would have top 5 players at arguably the two most important positions locked up for the next 10 years. This isn't anything like a James/Wade or Melo/STAT pairing; Rose and Howard are younger, healthier and compliment each other wonderfully; there's almost no redundancy or negative interference between them.

Undoubtedly the main issue with this is the risk involved. It is significant. Dwight Howard has made no mention of his desire to play for the Bulls, and if he walks then Chicago is practically back to 2004 status. That would be very sad. However, I think it is quite possible he stays if he is traded to Chicago. Consider the following statements that Dwight Howard might make:

1. I want to go somewhere where I'm the man.

That makes no sense, Dwight. You already are the man in Orlando, and I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be considered the man in 3 of the 4 destinations you've mentioned. Obviously you'd be the man in Dallas or the Lakeshow once Dirk and Kobe are put to sleep, but then you'd be the man in a big market on a mediocre team. What's so desirable about that?

2. I want to go where it's warm.

You're in Orlando right now. Only the Heatles are closer to the equator than you. And if what you say is true, then why New York?

3. I heard playing with Derrick Rose might be bad for Addidas.

I don't get this at all. If you come to Chicago you will play more nationally televised games than anyone else over the next 7 years. You will make many trips to the ECF and NBA Finals. You will win a ring or rings. Who will get more prominent airtime than you and Derrick? You'll be just like Kobe and Shaq: the big, playful juggernaut and the serious, high flying perimeter player. How is that bad for Addidas? In fact, how the hell is that not great for Addidas?

4. I like Brooklynn.

Who doesn't? Just know that by the time you get there Deron will be 28 and the Nets will not be a contender. They will have to build one with middling draft picks and limited cap space. Deron will be at least 30 by the time the Nets are ready, and who knows if Deron will still be the Deron we know by then. Have you noticed that when you poke his tummy he giggles? Maybe not the best sign for a professional athlete.

In the end though I guess we really have no idea what this guy is thinking or if anything he says should be taken at face value. Making a play for him is a really bold move, but I hope the Bulls do everything they can to make it. Opportunities like this are just too great and too rare not to.

[I agree, draft coverage should ramp up this weekend. I..uh...have outdone previous records in terms of not paying attention to the draft. This seems like a really good start though. -ed.]

I figure with the draft about a week away we should have a post to consolidate all of the pre-draft murmuring and conjecture. Who do you think the Bulls should pick? Should they try to move up? Down? Should they trade a pick or two for a pick next year or the year after? What should the Bulls decision makers (whoever they are) do? I'll get the ball rolling with my own POV after the jump...

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1. In order for a player to block a shot, he must attempt to block a shot.

2. It is not likely that a player will have a 100% success rate on block attempts. Therefore, if a player blocks X number of shots, he must have some number of block attempts greater than X.

3. When a player tries to block a shot and misses the block, we still say he "contested the shot."

4. It stands to reason that the best shot blocker in the league would also rank among the best at contesting shots.

5. Derrick has the highest block rate among players at his position; therefore, he is one of the best at his position at contesting shots.

6. We say someone is "elite" at something when they are among the best at it. 

7. Derrick is an elite shot-contesting PG.

8. Derrick is 5th among PGs in grabbing defensive rebounds.

9. Derrick is an elite defensive rebounder.

10. Derrick has the 4th lowest foul rate among PGs.

11. Derrick is elite at not fouling opposing players.

12. Shooting defense, defensive rebounding and limiting fouls constitute 75% of the defensive Four Factors. If a player is elite in these three areas and even approaches average in creating TOs (the final Four Factor), that player is likely an elite defender.

13. Derrick is 23rd in STL%, which puts him at the very bottom of average or at the very top of below average.

14. See 7, 9, 11, 12 and 13.

15. Conclusion: Derrick Rose is likely an elite defender.

[From the FanPosts. Not sure how I missed this yesterday. Great analysis of the 3 non-Bosh PFs -ed.]

OK.  Lets change things up and add Dirk and Bosh just for the hell of it.

This post is not meant to be particularly original; most of this stuff has been said already in other threads.  It wishes to be a central place where one can look at some relevant numbers on FA PFs for comparison.  The only guys I will be considering here are Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki and David Lee.  Unless stated otherwise I will only be using their numbers from this year.

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