Well I've been home almost a week from Navy OCS, but haven't found time (much to my chagrin) to get on here and post away some thoughts, but here goes:

1) Don't fret that the Steelers have allowed more rushing yards the past few games.  If you look at the numbers, it's simply a volume issue; teams are running more (due to cold weather, and the potential for our pass-rushers to kill their QBs/throw INTs) but still having a low average yardage on running plays.  Ever since we had that stretch of games with a ton of picks and sacks (Cowboys was the exclamation), teams have run more, even if it's not very successful, it won't flat out lose the opponent a game the way turnovers will.

2) As I predicted before this season, this was one of the best, and in my opinion, THE best defense ever.  LaMarr Woodley (having watched him in person this past weekend), is an absolute beast.  He hasn't had sacks the past few games, but he is a killer against the run.  He was regularly taking on double-teams in the run, which is unheard of for a 3-4 OLB.  I don't think he's wearing down, I think teams are paying even more attention to him.  The rest will certainly help though, and I expect this defense to come out flying in the playoffs.  Look for them to be even better in the playoffs; as defenses always get stingier.

3) Lastly, and let me first apologize for the shortness of this post, as you most remember I usually like to go more in depth, but I'm pretty busy at home even (mostly working out non-stop), anyways, thanks to everyone who posted some nice thoughts a couple weeks ago about me, Blitz forwarded it to me at OCS, much, much appreciated!

UPDATE (1:15 EST): Added "long" and "TD" column to spreadsheet. - TMVT

As many experts, fans, and bloggers like myself have mentioned, the Giants not only feature the monstrous power running of Brandon Jacobs, but have two other excellent complementary backs, Derrick Ward, and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Both are the quicker, shiftier type of back, and both have the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make a play.  It seems the Giants favor Ward in this particular area, so we will focus on him.  (Bradshaw has only 3 receptions this year, versus 13 for Ward).  Ward is averaging 8.9 yards per catch out of the backfield, a pretty healthy number, so our defense will need to wrap up upon first chance with Ward.

As we all remember from the early 2000s with Kevin Faulk of NE shredding us, running backs who can catch the ball in the flat and make people miss can be a true game-changer.  In fact if you asked me before the '04 AFC champ game who I feared most, I would have said Kevin Faulk.  So let's take a look at the Steelers defense this year (and a few examples from previous years) on how we've done against receptions out of the backfield, and what that might tell us about the chances we face against Derrick Ward.

As you can see, RBs have caught the ball against us with varying degrees of success.  It seems for the most part that we do a pretty good job of either keeping these catches bottled up, or even limiting them from happening (alot of the box scores I checked had only one or two catches for opposing RBs).  However, it also seems that every couple games we give up a 20+ yard gain to an RB catch out of the backfield.  Buckhalter had one for a TD against us, and Harrison had a 20 yarder for the Browns against us.  Those are two of the longer pass plays against us all year. 

I think a big factor in why an RB will get a big gain off of us is that we play to keep deep passes in front of us with our secondary.  This leaves them downfield, and if the RB catches the ball in the flat with space and makes one LB miss, he'll most likely have plenty of room for a big gain before a CB or Safety can get to the ball to help.  Again, more often than not our LBs make the tackle, but when they do miss, we get gashed.  Furthermore, my memory tells me alot of RB dump-offs are in 3rd and (usually) impossible long situations, with the RB picking up a big chunk of yardage, but not the first down.  Further research would be necessary to examine this.

A healthy Troy Polamalu and the increased playing time of Lawrence Timmons would go a long way towards helping in this respect.  Both are players who are typically in or around the box, and feature outrageous closing speed.  That is exactly what is needed to stop an RB out in the flat, particularly if our OLBs blow the assignment or don't get there in time.  Look for the Giants to test us on this early in the game, as it is also an effective weapon against our outside pass rush, and various blitzes.  If they hit a couple of those passes for big gains early, look for LeBeau to adjust by using Timmons alot more in base downs (especially with Derrick Ward in the game).  Then of course the issue becomes, does Timmons have the run stopping ability to take on Brandon Jacobs....ah the chess match of football.  One thing is for sure, we are going to find out alot about our team come Sunday.  Limiting Derrick Ward, without compromising our effectiveness against the power running game, would go a long way towards a Pittsburgh victory.

Continue reading this post »

Bumped from the fanposts. Thanks to TMVT for the submission. This certainly changes the complexion of the game. Troy and the doctors know best, but man, I sure hope he's not rushing back because he views this particular game against the defending champs as especially important. It's just one game, and I think we all would prefer Troy sit for his own well being, as well as for the well being of the team later in the year if it's a borderline decision this weekend. For now though, let's chalk it up to great news! - Blitz-

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From the Post-Gazette:

Coach Mike Tomlin said today he expects safety Troy Polamalu to play against the New York Giants, even though the coach confirmed he sustained a concussion in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati.

"As of right now, we anticipate him playing," Tomlin said.

More good news for the Steelers: Nose tackle Casey Hampton and fullback Carey Davis also are expected to play Sunday against the Super Bowl champions, Tomlin said, and halfback Willie Parker will practice Wednesday and has improved since he reinjured his sprained left knee last Monday.

Analysis:  Well we can stop planning how we would use An. Smith and Timmons to replace Polamalu's versatility.  The fact we have already been cautious with injuries so far this year leads me to believe Polamalu has been more than fine with the medical staff this week, as they have no need to rush him back.  Sounds like we'll have everybody back.  Losing B-Mac, but keeping Polamalu really, really lessens the blow of losing McFadden.  Polamalu is going to give Eli nightmares with his pre-snap movement and ability to cover up huge chunks of ground.  Here's to hoping though he doesn't try to tackle big Brandon Jacobs with his head, and instead goes for the legs of the big guy.  With Hampton and Parker likely to return, this is the closest we'll have been to full strength since Week 1.

Next in our series on the state of the Steelers various units: the Linebackers.  I think it's safe to say everyone knows our linebackers have performed exceptionally well this season, but let's take a closer look at the individuals in the unit (I just did the big five, if anyone wants to do the STers and backups go for it):

James Harrison

Having a even more monstrous season than last.  The 6.5 sacks stand out, of course, but as we've mentioned before, Harrison is a feast or famine sack-getter.  He destroys mediocre and below tackles, and does OK on elite tackles.  By OK I mean he doesn't get any sacks, but he will still push the pocket and hold up in the running game.  His short height is an asset for him with his massive strength as he easily gets under the pads of opposing blockers and holds them up.  More impressive to me is the fact he is leading the team in tackles thru 5 games with 31.  In coverage Harrison has also improved from last year, and really I've only counted one mistake on him, which was the Correll Buckhalter TD against Philadelphia.  Harrison didn't get to the flat quick enough, and when he did he took a bad angle to the ball-carrier.  Still, for how often our OLBs are against TEs and RBs, he has done exceptionally well.

James Farrior

I hate to make Farrior sound average, because he is anything but that.  However, he is up to his usual tricks, being "Steady Freddie" on the defense.  That isn't a slight at all, Farrior is attacking the gaps and stuffing the run just as well as he ever has, and he doesn't seem to have lost a step in coverage either.  That may be a factor of the lighter training camp and practice schedule by Tomlin, or just Farrior taking great care of his body.  Either way, he is still one of the best 3-4 ILBs in the league, and certainly the most unheralded/underrated.

Larry Foote

The people who say Foote is bad in coverage are just simply wrong.  He has been beaten once into a deep zone (against Jax--although it may have been Clark's responsibility), but regardless, he has done very well in this area also.  All of our coverage players in fact have done very well, which very much is likely a result of our more explosive pass-rush this year.  Foote, like Farrior, is very steady, rarely overpursues to the ball, and is a sound tackler.  He isn't great as a pass-rusher, as he lacks the pass-rush explosiveness that someone like Timmons has, but if the design is right he will usually beat an RB who steps in his way.  It's when he takes on an OL that he only generates minimal push.  Still, Foote is an above-average 3-4 ILB.  He certainly isn't giving away his spot to Timmons, and I won't be surprised to see Foote still getting decent reps this year, and the next few years, albeit with Timmons in the starting role and Foote playing the reliever to Farrior & Timmons.

A quick note on both Foote & Farrior, as I talked about in the "How the Defense Works" series, the job of the ILBs is to first read the guards in front of them, and diagnose what play is coming and react accordingly.  Both do this exceptionally well (helped by the fact Hampton/Hoke/A. Smith gobble up guards in double-teams) and it is a huge mental part of the game that often goes unnoticed.  You will very rarely see Foote & Farrior out of position, away from where the play is ran to.  That is a testament to their preparation.

Lawrence Timmons

Many people are disappointed he hasn't seen more playing time, and are using that as an indictment of his ability.  That is flat-out wrong.  This kid is a baller.  In the limited time he has been on the field, I haven't seen him make a mistake.  His coverage ability is excellent.  His speed and burst in the pass-rush is phenomenal.  The thing we have seen most of him so far, is his ability to close the gap on a ball-carrier, and Timmons does this similar to another defensive player we are fortunate to have, Troy Polamalu.  When you see the RB in the flat by himself with 10 yards of free room, and next thing you know he is stopped for 1-2 yards, that is uncoachable ability.  Timmons has this.  Of course, these are all things we knew he could do well.  So how has he done in the run game?  Hard to say definitively as he hasn't been in a ton, but he has attacked the gaps and read the guards well from what I've seen so far.  His speed is an asset in the run game, as he does a good job of getting thru "trash" (random bodies of blockers and defensive players in between player and the ball) and tracking down the ball-carrier.  Mark my words, later in the year, or perhaps in the playoffs (a la Woodley last year) we'll unleash Timmons.  We haven't had much need for his pass rush as Woodley & Harrison have been so dominant.  Speaking of which...

LaMarr Woodley

My favorite Steelers linebacker this year.  Let's start with the obvious: this kid can rush the passer, something fierce.  He has great speed for his size.  Did you know Woodley is the heaviest OLB we've had since we went to the 3-4 in the 90s? You wouldn't by the way he explodes off the snap (I could easily see him being effective as a 4-3 DE).  He also has very long arms, which he uses to engage blockers early in his rush.  When the blocker commits/engages back, Woodley will either bull-rush and at LEAST push the tackle back into the pocket, or, speed rush and if the tackle has set up for it, he uses an inside spin move to counter, which he's used to get a couple of his sacks already.  Opposing offensive coordinators have obviously taken note of this kid, because in the past few games the double-team help is coming to his side more often than to James Harrison.  There was a sequence against Jacksonville that illustrates how special he is:  Woodley beat the RT to the edge, the RB came to help and succeeded in chipping Woodley enough for the RT to recover.  At this point both the RT and RB were engaged with Woodley and he drove them BOTH backwards a yard or two.  He didn't get a sack (Harrison did on the play), but he still closed the pocket down-despite the double team-so that Garrard couldn't escape to his side.  Incredible.  As amazing as his pass-rush has been, Woodley has also been lights out in pass-coverage.  The INT first week was great execution and awareness of the route (thanks DeShea Townsend), and he's continued to be in the right places as the season has gone on.  A pass or two have gone past him, but he has shown to be a wrap up tackler in space, so the occasions when he does allow a pass, he makes the stop right away.  Lastly, in the run game Woodley has also been a beast, partly evidenced by his 3 tackles for loss.  Of course playing next to Aaron Smith makes it alot easier, as Woodley is usually blocked by a TE on running plays, and this is a big mismatch in favor of the Steelers.  Regardless, I haven't seen him miss any memorable tackles, and haven't seen him mauled over by any opposing blockers, so he is doing well in this area as well.  He is only going to get better as he gets more experienced in the system, which is a very pleasant thought for us Steelers faithful.

From the Post-Gazette notebook:

Steelers chairman Dan Rooney sent a letter to the NFL to protest the $5,000 fine leveled against wide receiver Hines Ward for "unnecessary roughness" against the Baltimore Ravens Sept. 29.

The NFL did not stipulate in the letter to Ward a specific play for which he was fined. Ward was not penalized in the game.

Rooney said he wrote to the league to say that Ward "plays the game the way it's supposed to be played."

Ward thought he was fined for stepping over cornerback Cory Ivy after one play.

"At least he stepped over him," Rooney said, "and not on him."                             

Story on ESPN; Ravens accusing the Browns of particularly dirty play, Willis McGahee apparently got his eyes gouged on more than one occasion and has considerable swelling in his eye this week as a result of it.  Anyone ever remember a situation like this, where a team was so mad about dirty play they publicly called them out?  Sure to light a fire under the next Browns-Ravens game.  I'm still surprised the league had nothing to say about Rogers late hit on Roethlisberger last week, and this kind of stuff is definitely far dirtier than that, so there may be suspension/fines coming for Andra Davis and the other unnamed player.  That being said, this is nothing compared to what Hines Ward does regularly. (Sarcasm).  Right Kwoog?  :-)

In order to keep the Browns offense out of sync (as they appeared against Dallas), the Steelers will hope to again get pressure on the QB with their outside linebacker duo of James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley.  While most the press this week will most likely focus on Harrison vs. Joe Thomas over on the left side, just as important will be Woodley against Kevin Shaffer. 

First, some background on Shaffer (kwoog feel free to post in the comments further thoughts on his play), he was originally signed to be Cleveland's left tackle, and it was quickly apparent he lacked the speed/athleticism to handle elite rushers from the left side.  With the arrival and immediate impact of Joe Thomas, Shaffer moved to the right side, and according to the Scouts, Inc. player analysis:

On the left side, his athletic ability was exposed, but he has performed admirably on the right side because he doesn't have to consistently face elite speed-rushers. Shaffer also greatly benefited from the emergence of Thomas at left tackle because the Browns are able to give him help, if he is overmanned. He isn't very nimble or fluid, but does work hard. His pad level is a problem and he lacks the ability to consistently play the game low.

Basically, Shaffer is adequate on the right side.  While it's too early to call Woodley an "elite speed-rusher", he certainly has the speed to test Shaffer early on.  Woodley also has considerable power, and, if it holds true that Shaffer can't keep his pads low, LaMarr should have no problem getting underneath his pads and controlling Shaffer when they are matched up one-on-one. In obvious passing situations, if Woodley gets the one-on-one matchup, expect him to create at least a few pressures, and potentially a sack or two.

In the run game, Shaffer would seem to have an advantage of Woodley with his size and strength, however, the presence of Aaron Smith in front of Woodley will strongly discourage the Browns from running towards his side of the field.  From what I saw in the Texans game, Woodley held up pretty well (against a very good RT) in run defense anyways, but the Texans aren't exactly a pounding running offense.

All in all, the matchup advantage goes to Woodley.  I expect Thomas and Harrison to be a great battle, but I think Thomas and Harrison are much more evenly matched than the Woodley - Shaffer battle on the opposite side.  It's early to make any conclusions, and Woodley has to prove he can play consistently (no guarantees with young players), but if he plays at the level he did in the Texans game, he should dominate the matchup with Shaffer.

During Sunday's route of the Texans, there was one play in particular that stood out to me because it was a combination of a great play-call by Arians, and flawless execution by the players on the field; Willie Parker's 2nd touchdown run, from 13 yards out.  First, the play took advantage of Mario Williams aggressiveness in pass rushing.  The Steelers were in a 1-back set with 4 total receivers (including TEs).  There were 3 receivers bunched on the weak side of the field, with Santonio Holmes alone on the strong side.  The play was designed to run to the strong side.  The defense of the Texans was most likely expecting pass, as this formation and its variants typically signals we are going to pass.  Best yet, it forces the defense to roll to the weak side of the field, leaving more space on the strong side for a run play. 

Upon the snap, Kemoeatu and Marvel Smith block their men in opposite directions.  Kemoeatu locks on and drives his man to his right, and slightly into our backfield.  Marvel Smith lets Mario Williams get a step on him, then gives him a nice shove into our backfield, before turning his (Smith's) head and heading upfield.  At the same time, Roethlisberger has handed to Willie Parker, who is staring at a massive hole on the left side of the line.  The only possible deterrent is Justin Hartwig's man, who Hartwig engaged right off the snap.  As this defensive tackle tried to slide to his right (Hartwig's left) to fill the hole, Hartwig does an excellent job of remaining engaged, without holding him.  At the same time, Marvel Smith is heading upfield and hits the unsuspecting defensive tackle (busy with Hartwig) into the turf.  Parker now has clear room and is at full speed, the only possible person who can stop him is the DB covering Holmes, who Holmes does an excellent job of keeping engaged, right up until Willie is running past, when Holmes lets him go (to avoid a holding call), and the DB can only hopelessly lunge at Parker as he blows by, and gets 10 yards easily.  That first 10 yards was all due to a great play call, and the offensive line's perfect execution.  I could have got 10 yards on that play. 

This is where Willie Parker is responsible for turning the 10 yard first down, into a 13-yard touchdown.  One thing I noticed all game is that Parker seems to have a bit more agility this year than in previous years, where his "cutting" ability was average at best.  Throughout this game he showed some new moves, such as feigning a step towards one hole, then bursting to the outside (LT and Adrian Peterson are the absolute best at this), and also, a pretty tight spin move, which he used to perfection on this play.  As the last-chance defender (believe it was the free safety) flowed towards Parker, Parker plants his left foot hard and spins inside, away from the safety, and walks into the end zone.

I turned to some friends right after that play and said, "That was a perfect play call."  They took advantage of two things, 1) the Texans (and Mario Williams in particular) aggressive pass rush, and 2) the bunch formation, which last year we almost ALWAYS passed out of in the red zone.  Of course, perfect execution helps, and the play achieved it's goal of a first down, and thanks to a little Willie Parker magic, it netted a touchdown.  Great play call by Arians, great execution by the blockers, great finish by the running back.  It doesn't get sweeter than that for an X's and O's guy like me.  I'll mix it up week to week between offense and defense, and bad plays and good ones alike.

In the first installment of something I'll try to do every week, we'll highlight the play of what I feel is the best performing unit of players in any given game.   Owing to me being completely drunk by the 2nd half this may be a shorter synopsis then coming weeks, but I digress, it's impossible to stay sober when we are piling on the touchdowns in a bar filled with 150ish wild Steelers fans like myself.  In week 1, the distinction could easily go to any unit, but I'll take the linebackers:

James Harrison:  Our mean SOB starting ROLB made poor Duane Brown cry in frustration at one point in the game.  Not much else is needed to prove the point Harrison didn't let last seasons success get to his head.  That said, he showed the same power and explosiveness as last year, and has developed his pass-rushing arsenal even more.  His intensity is simply unbelievable. 

James Farrior:  "Steady Freddie" was at it again, stuffing runs up the middle, covering TEs and WRs, putting pressure on the QB.  Farrior STILL hasn't even lost a half-step despite his advanced age (same with Townsend), and that extension will be proved to be a great investment.

Larry Foote:  See Farrior's notes.  Foote can do it all pretty well, and he did just that.

LaMarr Woodley:  We all knew he would be a great pass-rusher, and he did just that.  What we weren't sure of is if he could stick with TEs in coverage, he did that well enough to get an INT early in the game, so as of right now, he has the ability.  We'll see how he does against elite TEs (like Winslow next week), but that might be a task where Timmons will be used more often than not.  Great starting debut for Woodley, he should only improve as the season goes on too.  Scary thought for opposition.

Lawrence Timmons:  Man, our two young LBs are absolute studs.  While he didn't see the field as much as Woodley, he was out there quite a bit in rotation and made some nice plays.  Pressure up the middle, coverage, and he's got that zip that Polamalu does, as evidenced by him blowing up a short screen pass (I forget when).  Timmons was in the middle of the field and the RB caught the ball seemingly wide open in the flat, and then BAM! Timmons is knocking him on his arse for little gain.  He'll be out there more and more if he keeps that up.

This is the final piece in a series in which I've tried to educate/enhance all of our understanding of the Steelers 3-4 "zone blitz" defensive scheme.  In part 1 we reviewed the various coverage schemes and responsibilities of the secondary, and in part 2, we examined the linebackers, a unit I believe is the most important, for the defense to be dominant.  In part 3, we will look at the unit which is most important for the base success of the defense:  the Defensive Line.  This will be the shortest piece, as in a 3-4 the line's responsibilities are pretty simple (albeit demanding).  As opposed to a 4-3, where the D-linemen might stunt and twist along the line alot, generally our guys are simply asked to attack their gaps and control the line of scrimmage. 

On running plays, the D-Line is set to absorb blockers.  To understand how our defensive line achieves, this, a basic understanding of "gaps" is needed.  Without taking up too much space here, check out the diagram on this page, which shows a 3-4 and gap responsibilities.  Use it as a reference as I explain which of our guys does what.  First off, a slight difference, they show the nose tackle as being responsible for both of the A-gaps.  While Big Snack still does this from time to time, he plays an awful lot of "one-gap" responsibility these days.  This isn't a slight to him, it just means he picks ONE of those two A-gaps to attack.  Generally, he still will command a double team, thus filling that hole, and forcing the run to the other A gap, where (if our ILB's follow their responsibility) Farrior & Foote will be waiting.  When he is attacking one gap only you'll see Hampton line up slightly off-center, in front of the gap he will go after.  When maintaining "two-gap" (both A-gaps) responsiblity, he will line up directly over center, and force either one or both of the guards to help out (thus closing the A gaps).  When the linebackers read the guards action (as I described in part 2), they will know the run play is not going to come up the middle, as there is no hole.  At the same time, Aaron Smith on the left will be responsible for the B & C gap on his side, or if there is no tight end, he will take the B & A on his side, while Hampton attacks only the A to the right of the center.  Smith normally gets as many double-teams as Hampton, and maybe more in any given game.  When both are commanding a double team, stopping the run is easy, and when you will see no gain or -1, -2 yards.  On the other side, Keisel attacks the space between the tackle and the guard (the other B gap).  You can see, due to the excellent of Smith & Hampton, that now either 4, or all 5 of the O-Line is engaged.  Now the LBs simply have to deal with either one O-linemen, and a fullback possibly, or just the running back. 

Now, on passing downs, is where the Steelers do some different things with the line.  First though, if we maintain a 3 D-Linemen look (rare for us on passing downs nowadays), we line up similar to how we would for a run down, however this time the D-Line will push upfield a bit more, but mostly to further open up the gaps at wider angles, so that the rushing/blitzing outside linebackers can come thru either untouched, picked up by only an RB, or at an angle that gives them an advantage over whichever offensive linemen is trying to recover to the open gap.  That being said, Aaron Smith is so good he still picks up a decent number of sacks from this position.  Hampton typically comes off the field on passing downs, with Aaron Smith moving inside, along with Chris Hoke and Brett Keisel.  Another package we started running last year is our "Jumbo" package.  On passing downs we sometimes play a 4-2-5 defense.  Smith, Hoke, Hampton, Keisel along the line.  Farrior and one other linebacker (Harrison usually).  In this instance the D-line plays similar to a 4-3, in that they will simply attack upfield.  Basically, this is LeBeau's answer on how to still get good pressure on the quarterback against a spread offense in passing situations.  We essentially change to a 4-3.  The only problem is that this alignment will be vulnerable to screens, as the D-Linemen are slow compared to typical 4-3 linemen.  We used this Jumbo package alot last year against Seattle to great effect. 

As you have read, our defensive line's job is to eat up blockers so that our LBs can roam and use their athletic ability to make plays.  It isn't a glory job, but without great play upfront, our defense would be absolutely shredded.  That's why it's very important for all three of our starting DL to stay healthy this year.  While the LB corp will determine whether or not we are a truly great defense (as opposed to just a good one), the D-Line is what gives us the ability to be in the position to be great.

Questions, Comments, Thoughts?

Thought it appropriate to link to a ranking done by ESPN.com on the NFL's best fans.  Wouldn't you know it, guess who was #1.  That's right.  The Steelers fans.  Not surprisingly, the Packers were number two.  Both fanbases travel EXTREMELY well, mostly owing to being from smaller cities with high loyalty.  So when fans move away, they stay die-hard fans and go to the games against their new local teams.  Example:  two years ago Qualcomm Stadium probably had 20-30,000 Steelers fans for a Steelers-Chargers battle.  It was amazing having just moved to San Diego to see it (albeit on TV).  Cleveland came in third, a bit surprising, but you have to admit, the fans are completely die-hard, despite all the years of non-success.  Steelers (and Packers) fans, do a good job of staying level-headed during the few bad seasons we've had, because the trust in management is so high we know it will be turned around.  Whereas Browns fans are more likely to stage a massive group suicide if the Browns don't live up to expectations this year.  Anyways, article is a good read, check it out, and give yourselves a big pat on the back.

And especially for Blitz, who can now officially say "Behind The Steel Curtain:  Home to the Best Fans in Football"

This is Part 2 of a three part series examining the inner workings of the Steelers' 3-4 "zone blitz" defensive scheme.  We are looking at responsibilities of the different groups of players: secondary, linebackers, and defensive line. In Part 1, we covered the secondary, the various coverage schemes, run responsibility, and how the players work together to confuse the offense.  We will do the same now with our linebacker corps, which many Steelers fans (myself included) feel can be the best in the league in 2008 and the years beyond. 

In the 3-4 defense Pittsburgh plays, the linebackers typically get most of the "glory" plays, and for good reason.  The ability of the linebackers is what makes the defense dynamic.  Undoubtedly, the Steelers need great defensive line play to let the linebackers do their thing (which we'll touch on in Part 3), but if I had to pick a unit MOST important to the defense being a dominant unit, it would be the linebackers.  Let's take a look at how they do their job:

First, our linebackers read run, then pass (with the exception of obvious passing situations, like an empty backfield, etc).  On a typical down, the inside linebackers (primary run-stoppers) will first read the guards in front of them, looking to see if the guard is going to block down (which would indicate a run to their side of the ball) or if the guard is pulling (in which case, the linebackers would flow to the other side, in the direction of the carry. After reading the guard, a Steeler LB will also read the running back. 

The outside linebackers have what is known as "outside contain responsibility"--essentially, to funnel anything into the middle of the field and the inside linebackers.  Many times, Aaron Smith (who actually gets double-teamed more than Big Snack) and Casey Hampton attract so much attention along the line, that our linebackers can run straight to the running back and stuff them for no or one-yard gains.  Playing inside linebacker for the Steelers is a great way to get a payday, as the inside linebackers will pile up tackles, and typically you'll see their stats take a significant drop upon leaving the team.  For example Earl Holmes averaged 87 tackles (solo) from 99-01 as an ILB with the Steelers, in a 4-3 with the Lions from 03-05, he averaged 65 tackles.

Second, there are pass rushing responsibilities, and this is getting at what the 'zone blitz' is really about.  Zone blitz specifically refers to a player that normally rushes (like a Keisel) dropping into coverage, while a player that would normally drop into zone coverage, will vacate the zone, and rush the passer.  This serves to confuse the offensive line, by making it hard for them to account for all the rushers on the line, and to bait the QB into passing into what he believes will be an empty zone. 

For example, if James Harrison is poised to rush outside the left tackle, at the snap he may fake one step forward, then drop into coverage into the "flat" (area between hash and sideline 5-10 yards deep), while a corner (in this case, Deshea Townsend) will blitz.  Another likely scenario would involve Brett Keisel in the gap between the tackle and the guard, and Harrison a few yards from the line of scrimmage, looking like he's going to be in coverage.  Upon the snap Harrison will blitz, vacating the zone, and Keisel will drop off of the line.  Remember, most the blitzes in this paragraph are referring to likely passing situations. 

As far as just regular pass-rushing by our OLBs, Woodley and Harrison both show great strength and speed against tackles.  Both have the ability to beat their man to the edge, and both have bull-rush (just trying to plow over the tackle) strength.  They also both have demonstrated "counter" moves against tackles, which are moves in response to how the tackle goes about blocking them.  Woodley has shown (in pre-season, albeit) a fairly effective 'inside spin' move, where he speed rushes the outside shoulder of the tackle, and when the tackle commits outside, he spins across the tackle towards the inside, and the space created when the tackle followed him wide.  He may not always get to the QB as this moves takes time, but he will get in his face and make him feel pressure.

A blitz that we run more than any other is the "X" blitz with our two inside linebackers.  It's a very simple play in which the two ILB's will simply cross, one in front of the other, while they rush up the middle, directly at the guards with a full head of steam.  If one of the guards has already committed to double-teaming Smith or Hampton, then one of our LBs will have to be picked up by an RB, or he will come free to the QB.  Also, the blitzing ILBs are reaching the guard with a full head of steam, and will at least push the guard back, impairing the quarterbacks vision.  You will see us run this play at least half a dozen times a game.  With Lawrence Timmons looking to either start or see significant playing time, I believe this blitz will become even more productive for us, as Timmons is much more explosive pass-rusher than Foote (or even Farrior).  Typically, they will delay for just a split second before crossing and rushing, hopefully goading one of the guards into committing to a double team. 

In coverage, the linebackers are typically responsible for the flats and the short pass, as I mentioned in the secondary piece.  This places alot of pressure on the linebackers to get to the ball quickly, and even more importantly, make the tackle.  If they don't make the tackle, there is going to be 10 or so yards of space for the RB or WR to get off and running.  Kevin Faulk has been a thorn in our sides because of his shiftiness in open space against our LBs in the previous years, and hopefully we'll see Mewelde Moore do the same to opposing defense this year.  That being said, we've already seen Timmons seek and destroy a few of these plays this year, and his speed and explosive hitting power make him a great weapon for our defense.  I might be more excited to have Timmons on the field as he is our best LB at closing on the ball, and he can help to eliminate the short passes-turned into big gains, that have hurt us in previous years.

As can be said about most Steelers units, our front office does a great job of identifying players who can fit our scheme, and as such, we've had one of the best defenses, and particularly, the best linebackers in the league for the last 15 years plus.  With the infusion of Timmons and Woodley into our defense in 2008, look for that tradition to continue.  I highly expect both Woodley and Harrison to finish with 10+ sacks, and Farrior and Timmons/Foote will probably split 12 sacks between them as well, while racking up their usual tackles.

Thoughts, comments, questions?   (Special thanks to my brother for helping me out with this piece...we'll see him around this site hopefully in the future)

So much for the notion that the Steelers haven't been negotiating with any players lately.  ESPN reports that James Farrior has agreed to a 5-year, 18.25 million dollar extension.  The deal includes a $5 million signing bonus.  I think this is a good move by the Steelers, who typically don't sign aging players.  Farrior is an exception in that he has already proved time & again he has not slowed down, and continued to play at a high level.  With Timmons coming on strong and the Steelers now committed to Farrior in the middle, this also may be the last year of Larry Foote in our defense.  May a Marvel Smith extension becoming after all?

I wanted to string a couple pieces together before the regular season, starting with an in-depth preview of what you can expect in '08 from the newest installment of the Steel Curtain.  I'm going to try to go fairly in-depth to explain what our defense does, and how it works (which may be old hat to some of you), and explain the strengths and weaknesses (there aren't many) of our defense, while also highlighting how many different looks we give opposing teams.  Let me throw out a bold claim first though; this years defense will be better than last years, and will be able to play as good as they did in the first 9 games last year, for the whole season this year, putting themselves in the ring as one of the best defenses of all-time.  To make this easier to read, I'm breaking it down into 3 sections, (secondary, LBs, D-Line), and what they are responsible for, and different things they do to confuse offenses. Today we'll start with.....

The Secondary:  Our "base" defense as everyone knows is a 3-4, 'zone' blitz scheme.  While 'zone blitz' is something mostly applicable with linemen and linebackers, we also play alot of zone schemes behind this with our DBs and the coverage linebackers, who are each responsible for a specific area (zone) of the field.  For example, the reason Ike Taylor let Randy Moss run inside on that first deep touchdown against New England, was because Taylor was responsible for the outside zone, and Anthony Smith was responsible for the inside zone.  Hence, Taylor "handed off" the receiver to Smith.  When you integrate these responsibilities with how often our linebackers are blitzing, you can see how this can become complex, and tough for an offense to figure out where there might be "seams" in the zones.  As an example, particularly with guys like Polamalu (and Timmons this year) you'll see Troy near the line of scrimmage, and our two inside line backers at their usual position.  Upon the snap, one (or both) of the inside line backers will blitz, vacating the zone in the middle of the field, and Troy will sprint into that zone to take care of any offensive players who may be looking to find themselves open.  This is one of the many ways we take advantage of the fantastic athleticism of guys like Polamalu.  

We play a multitude of coverage looks behind the front 7: man-to-man, zone, cover 2, and cover 3.  If we are in a man-to-man, generally you'll see Ike Taylor follow the other teams best receiver.  In cover 2, you'll actually see Taylor or Townsend drop back as the other "safety" along with Ryan Clark, and Polamalu will come to the line of scrimmage where he'll either bump the receiver on whichever CB dropped back's side of the ball, or he'll be among the O-linemen dancing around creating havoc.  In a cover 3 our two CBs, and the free safety, will each cover one third of the field, and Troy will act as a linebacker.  Typically we use this more at the beginning of games, when teams are more likely to run the ball, as it essentially gives us 8 guys in the "box" and limits big pass plays.  Both Taylor & Townsend are excellent bump & run type players, although we don't run a ton of this; mostly because we like to give a cushion so our corners can read the play first and react if it is a running play.  By playing bump & run it effectively makes it impossible for those two corners to be involved in helping on a run play. 

Generally, in our defense, you need smart cornerbacks (Ricardo Colclough need not apply) who understand zones and angles.  One reason Townsend is so effective is because he has such a great understanding of the defense.  All in all, our secondary does an excellent job of limiting big plays and dares offensive coordinators to deviate from their game plan (since many teams don't plan to dink & dunk--except the Pats of 07, who's offense I thought was a direct response to the 3-4 defense, with quick short passes from a shotgun spread formation), this has been a staple of LeBeau for a long time, and further reinforced by Tomlin.  A potential weakness is if there isn't communication, the "seams" (imaginary line separating the zones) can be exploited.  Sometimes it's as simple as a tight end running right along the seam of a zone and both DB's assuming the other guy is going to get him-- leaving him wide open.  That being said, I don't see this often with our guys.  Lastly, the main problem with many of our coverages is they are more adverse to allowing the short pass (see, Patriots game).   The solution is either getting better/more consistent pressure on the quarterback, or having extremely athletic players at the position we will talk about next.......the Linebackers.

Thoughts, Comments, Questions?

Thought this quote from Bart Scott in James Walker's AFC North blog on ESPN.com was pretty great:

5. Which AFC North team do you enjoy playing against the most, and which team do you despise playing against?

BS: The team I hate the most and the team I love playing against is the same team -- I love facing the Pittsburgh Steelers. They play a brand of football that's about being a man. They play a man's game. They play football how it was played in the 1960s, 70s and early 80s. It's Midwest, bad weather, I am, you are, let's see who is what they say they are. I'm going to drop mine, you're going to drop yours, now let's see whose is the biggest?

We may not like Bart Scott, but that's a heck of a compliment, albeit one we are aware of.  Still, nice to see the other players recognize the Steelers for who they are.

Reading Lolley's blog again.......Anthony Smith (on his first day back from sitting out with a groin problem) leveled Hines Ward in a 7 on 7, non-contact drill.  I'm convinced now that this kid, despite having pretty good natural instincts, just doesn't have much ability to be coached, he lacks the brain to be coached.  That's why sometimes he'll make a big play off his instincts, but then when it requires discipline he will get burned.  This relates to him not understanding to stop trying to injure our star WR's in TRAINING CAMP (in non-contact drills...that's the 3rd time this training camp alone).  How many times with this kid, before we cut ties?

Dale Lolley always has great insights into training camp and today had more of the same (below you'll find what he said more or less in the first sentence or two, followed by my thoughts)

Kemo was back in practice today and looked pretty good, going 8 out of 10 in pass protection drills.  Pretty good for not having played in over a week.  When reading about the O-Line's problems against our Defense in the goal-line drill, I immediately thought of how it was Mahan at Center and Essex at LG.  Essex, while decent in pass pro, is decidedly weak in run blocking.  Kemo is a mauler in run blocking and would've made a big difference in that drill.  Along with Hartwig, who Lolley also mentioned.

Hartwig did really well also in one-on-one drills, holding his own against Chris Hoke, who Lolley goes on to mention is always the best practice player because he goes at game speed all the time, and Hoke had been making everyone (think, Mahan in the goalline drill) look bad.  My thoughts, this is just the inevitable, Hartwig is bigger, stronger, and more athletic than Mahan, and he's starting to get his game legs under him and will be our starting center.  The added size and strength of Hartwig and Kemo vs Mahan and Essex, if the Offense had a redo (which they will get Tuesday afternoon), would definitely do better in a goalline drill.  Guess we'll see on Tuesday.

One thing that hit me today while reading through the various media articles about the ongoing restructuring in the Steelers ownership:  How will the change/restructuring in ownership affect the teams ability to stay competitive a) if football becomes uncapped indefinitely or b) football remains capped, but the caps keep increasing, like they have in previous years.

In Tribune-Review I was reading about how the Steelers, when they want to give a player (like Ben) a big signing bonus, it basically comes straight out of the owners wallets, and thus, cuts into the profitability of the team.  For the past decade the team has focused on maintaining a winning product, at the cost of their profit margins.  Us fans should be so lucky, the Rooney's have a "cheap" reputation, but the hard facts and income statements support that they have in fact sacrificed their own potential gains to put a winning product on display.  Now, moving forward, it has become more and more difficult for NFL franchises to maintain profitable (hard to believe I know) with increasing player costs and overhead costs.  The Rooney's have already been squeezing their pockets to keep a winning product on the field, so I want to examine the two most likely scenarios, 1) Rooney's (led by Dan & Art II) maintain majority control, and 2) Druckenmiller gains majority control, with Dan & Art II left in charge of day to day operations

In Scenario 1, most likely, Dan & Art II are going to find outside investors to back them, but at the same time, they will need to incur some amount of debt, and spend some of their own money.  In two years, if the league goes uncapped, this will severely hamper the Steelers, as management will be feeling the squeeze to keep costs under control, and the NFL-mandated debt limit COULD (not necessarily, but possibly) put a damper on the Steelers remaining competitive.  So, if Dan & Art II retain majority share, we all better pray that a salary cap remains in place.  I would also imagine though, that any plan that has Dan & Art II as majority owner, addresses future cash issues, as the Rooney's are just too smart to not see that.

In Scenario 2, this is basically the one positive of having Druckenmiller become majority owner.  While I definitely want to keep the Rooney's as majority owners, you have to also see the positives of a multi-billionaire in control.  For one, in an uncapped league, Druckenmiller's large cash reserves, combined with (presumably) Dan & Art II's personnel decisions, the Steelers might even be a more dominant powerhouse than they already have been for the past 30 years.  Even with a new cap in place, it would increase the ability of the Steelers to add "cash over cap" signing bonuses to contracts (not that these contracts are good ones, as they usually are overpaying players) but it would help us retain players who we might not want to lose --like Faneca, who even though he was way overpriced, if a year earlier we had just offered him a top 10 deal, he would've stayed, instead of leaving for #1 paid guard in the league money a year later-- in the long run.

In conclusion, it's easy to see how any ownership outcome with Dan maintaining majority share is most likely going to put a pinch on his own families finances, and thus, POSSIBLY the competitiveness of the Steelers.  Again, I must stress it's more likely that Dan comes up with a plan that will allow the Steelers to maintain their winning ways, as THAT is the bedrock of the Steelers.  However, IF he has to choose between keeping the team, and keeping a winning team, what will he do?  We all know and love the Rooney's and know they want badly to do the right thing, but there are SO many factors at play here, it's murky to predict what will happen.  That said, I'm pretty confident no matter what, the future of the franchise is going to be stable, at worst.

The Post-Gazette is reporting that Tomlin is going to run one of the shorter Steelers camps in memory.  Players report July 27, the first two-day practice being on the 28th.  Camp concludes on August 17th.  I like this move by Tomlin, shows he has a good feel for his team.  We are a veteran-heavy team and as many veterans (Michael Strahan comes to mind) prove every year, they don't really need training camp.  This might help keep our old players, and D-line in particular, healthier and fresher later in the year.  I know alot of us here believed the heavy training camp last year and harder practices took their toll on our guys.  We'll see how it plays out but I believe this is a good move, I've always thought training camp was overrated in the modern era, players stay in shape almost the entire off-season anyways.  Biggest thing for us is to get the O-line starters (and maybe some contracts) sorted out in training camp, but a few days more or less shouldn't have a big impact on that.

Something we've all talked about often as a way to dramatically reduce sacks for the Steelers, is Big Ben looking to check down to our running backs more.  The Tribune-Review has a decent article talking about just that with Ben. 

I know us regulars here have talked about this often, but it is absolutely true.  I feel just from knowing where his outlet is more often, that alone could reduce the sack total by 15 or so.  In all honesty he could reduce it by 20-25, but that would require him to be looking to get rid of it a bit too much more than we want, as we've all seen what he can do when he takes a big risk.  As the article says, its about finding the "happy medium".

TheMostViolentTeam presents the third installment of his analysis of Ben Roethlisberger's new contract, this time creating a metric that examines what kind of value, in terms of wins, that a number of teams have gotten and can expect in the future, from their franchise QBs. The QB of course is only one man on the field, but they certainly have a big hand in the outcome of games. As was the case in the first two submissions, TMVT has done all the research and writing, while I have merely helped present the data in a shiny, digestable format. Enjoy.

-Blitz-

In parts I and II we took an in-depth look at the contracts of the top QBs in the NFL, and how they compared to Ben's new contract. My theory was that while all the contracts may vary in terms of absolute total/guaranteed dollars and years, the per year numbers for the contract, as a function of cap allotment, would be very similar, and thus give us an appropriate barometer to measure Ben's contract by. What we found was that most of the top QB's took anywhere from 8-14% in terms of raw dollars of the cap allotment (NOT the cap hit), in the year the contract was signed, with most of them hovering around the 10% mark. Thus we judged that Roethlisberger's contract was on par with the other top signal-callers around the league. Lastly, and most importantly we'll take a look at the projected performance of all these top quarterbacks, and how it relates to how much money they are being paid.

To do this I created a statistic called Dollars Per Win. What this inteds to tell us is how much a team is paying their star QB for each win they can be expected to generate in the future based on past performance. It can be broken out to show how much total (i.e. total contract value divided by projected future wins), and guaranteed (guaranteed portion of contract divided by projected wins) money a team is spending on its QB. Also, since it is unlikely a quarterback earns every single dollar of the contract, and equally unlikely that he only earns the bare guaranteed minimum, we'll take the mean of the two numbers (total and guaranteed contract amounts) and divide that by projected future wins to come up with an average-type number based on the assumption the QB is more likely to earn somewhere in between his total and guaranteed contract figure. This statistic is fairly easy to come up with, all we need is the quarterbacks career win percentage (I used regular season only), number of years their contract is for, and number of games in a season.

For an example of how the formula works we will use Drew Brees:

To calculate his winning percentage I look at his entire career (which includes those games he's already played on his current contract). His W-L record is 39-35 for a winning percentage of 52.7% (.527). Now, because this number includes 2006 and 2007, which are played on his current contract, so you might say, "well we shouldn't include that in his winning percentage", except, his winning percentage without those two years is nearly identical, at %52.4 (.5238).  I checked this with some other QBs and found the same. Thus, I felt comfortable using their entire career winning percentage, THEN going back from the start of their main contract (if they've already played on it) and projecting how many wins they SHOULD (or should have) generate(d) from that point on.

Brees signed a 6 year deal, so we project for him (6 years * 16 games = 96 games * .527 win pct) = 51 wins. Over the course of his deal Brees should expect to win 51 games. Brees contract pays $60 million total, $20 guaranteed, and thus the average contract number we'll use is $40 million. So we calculate:

$60 million/ 51 wins = $1.18 million (total) dollars per win

$20 million/ 51 wins =  $.39 million (guaranteed) dollars per win

$40 million/ 51 wins =  $.78 million (mean) dollars per win

So for each win basically New Orleans is paying Brees $1.18 million dollars in total money, or $.39 million in guaranteed money, or $.78 million when we look at a "average" number that is more likely to be earned than the base guaranteed amount and the top total amount. Let's see how the other top QBs size up.

Projected Wins and Dollars Per Win Stats for Top-Tier QBs:

• Firstly, how does Ben Roethlisberger stack up from a value perspective?  Well, the numbers look pretty darn good. He has the 3rd best winning percentage; the 3rd best guaranteed dollars per win rating, and 4th best in total and mean dollars.

• As expected, Brady has the highest win percentage, and considering he didn't sign a gargantuan deal like Palmer or Manning, his Dollars Per Win numbers are some of the best. The surprise here is Hasselbeck, who despite only having the 5th highest winning percentage of QB's we looked at, looks to be an incredible bargain. He is #1 (or tied for it) in every way we look at Dollars Per Win. His total number ties Brady, and his guaranteed and mean number check in significantly below Brady's.

• While you would be hard-pressed to find anybody say Hasselbeck is a top 5 quarterback in the league, it's pretty clear that for the number of wins he produces, he is an incredible value.

• Moving down the list (we'll save a more thorough analysis of Ben for later) we see Romo comes in at third in most measures, although it should be noted that not only is his career win percentage based on a MUCH smaller sample size than everybody else on the list, but also that his guaranteed dollars per win is 5th. As we stated in Part II, that's largely due to Jerry Jones fat wallet and Romo's age (necessitating more guaranteed money with a shorter contract essentially).

• Brees and Bulger have nearly identical win percentage numbers but due to Brees having a smaller contract his value numbers look much better. Furthermore, New Orleans really got a steal because they were aided by concerns over the shoulder injury he suffered in his last season in San Diego, which helped keep his price down.

• Peyton Manning is a bit of a surprise coming down so low on this list. I would never say Peyton Manning is overpaid, in fact, I would treat him differently than every other QB since he not only makes the throws but is also an impromptu offensive coordinator on the field. While there is no way to factor this in, I still think Peyton was had for a decent value. I doubt any Colts fans would complain, considering they have been one of the winningest teams in the league with him at the helm.

• As stated in Part II, Carson Palmer is the big disappointment. With how dysfunctional that team has been it's hard to say if it's entirely his fault, but as the QB (fairly or unfairly) he should shoulder some of that responsibility. It's possible Cincy's front office was so anxious to get a deal done because they hadn't had a franchise type QB in ages, that they overvalued their own player a bit. If he could raise his winning percentage up to the mid 60s then he wouldn't be so far off the middle of this list, but given the division and conference he plays in, that would be a minor miracle.

Big Ben Without 2006:

I also calculated Ben's winning percentage and Dollars Per Win statistics if we removed the atrocious (and most likely statistically aberrational) 2006 season. It seems likely the Steelers front office didn't hold that season against him either, and when removed, his winning percentage jumps to 79.7% (.7969). Here is what his numbers look like after we adjust:

As you can see, he is now projected to win 102 games over the next 8 seasons. Furthermore, his win percentage is better than Brady's, and his guaranteed and dollars per win measures now move up to 2nd, behind only Hasselbeck. His total dollars is still firmly fourth, and as we see if Ben earns every penny of his contract, and delivers 102 wins, he'll earn 1 million dollars for every W.

Final Conclusions:

When we just compared Ben with the other QB's on a salary only basis, he seemed to have a decent contract, right in the middle of the pack. I specifically came up with Dollars Per Win because I wanted to see a way where we could relate not only contract size, but also contract size as a function of wins a quarterback produces. The results are just about what I expected, with the major surprises being Matt Hasselbeck and Peyton Manning.  Hasselbeck showing incredible value, and Manning's numbers SEEMING to indicate he is overpaid (although I clearly do not believe this to be the case). Based on the number of wins we might expect Big Ben to help generate for us in the future, we got an excellent value. Like any quantitative tool this doesn't tell the whole story, but I feel very confident the numbers back up what we see as football fans with our eyes (i.e. I think most people agree). Any feedback/input is greatly appreciated; also let me know if you want me to update these numbers as the season (and thus a QB winning percentage changes) goes on. I have some other ideas for measuring QBs as a function of their contract (such as dollars per touchdown thrown/ran for), so let me know if this kind of stuff interests the BTSC readers here.

Bumped. Interesting piecing together of facts and speculation by TMVT.

-Blitz-

Let me preface this by saying a couple weeks ago there was an article in the Tribune-Review about Starks and the fact he wasn't taking part in off-season workouts because he didn't have a conract with the Steelers.

Well, my spies in the Steelers organization took these pictures (aka, they were on the Steelers website).  Looks like Starks has started working out at the facility (this is from this weeks off-season work outs photo album--he was not in any of the previous ones) with the team.

Not positively sure what to make of this, but my hunch is this, there was another Another  article saying we would address Starks after the owners meetings.  As those meetings have just ended, is it possible a contract is very near complete? Thus Starks agent/the team gave him the go ahead to begin working out with the team again. This is speculation on my part but I find it unlikely his agent would say go ahead and workout with the team without a contract being finished, or near finished.  Furthermore, he wasn't involved in any of the prior off-season workouts, so something must have happened for him to come into town.  

Personally, I don't see any other meaning, whenever a player begins working out with the team, in the past it meant a deal was near complete (think when Hines Ward ended his holdout and returned to camp before contract was actually done/signed).  One other thing to note, Starks looks pretty svelte for him in these pictures.  As we all know if his weight is down, that is when he is capable of playing at a Marvel Smith level.  What do you guys think?

Bumped. TheMostViolentTeam is back with some follow up work on comparing Big Ben's contract with some of the higher paid QBs in the NFL. If you missed the first entry we did comparing it with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's contracts, check it out here. Like last time, he's done the vast majority of the work, while I've just lent a few thoughts here and there, particularly on the Drew Brees section. Great work by TheMostViolentTeam once again. Stay tuned for his 3rd entry in the series where he will be introducing us to a new metric I've yet to seen anywhere.

-Blitz-

Update [2008-4-3 18:17:29 by TheMostViolentTeam]:Apologies to all. Had the wrong cap info and thus wrong cap % numbers for Hasselbeck. Fixed and updated, fortunately barely changed his numbers, and did not affect analysis.

-TMVT-

Objective:

This is part II of a three-part, quantitative look at the top QB's in the league, and how our own Ben Roethlisberger stacks up value wise, specifically relating to his new contract and it's allocation within the team's larger salary cap figures.  In Part 1 we looked simply at Ben and the two very best QB's in the league, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  In part II we're expanding our focus and looking at the quarterbacks most would consider in the same "league" as Ben.  Since you've already seen Ben's numbers I won't bother re-hashing them, but our general conclusion was that he was paid adequately, not TOO much, and not too little (did anyone think 102 million was too little?).

A quick recap of our initial anaylysis of Ben's contract:

Ben signed a 8 year, $102 million dollar deal just recently as we all know. Ben is 26 years old and widely regarded as a top 5 QB, with the potential to be one of the greatest of all-time. People may scoff at that proclamation, but when you consider his abundant playoff experience and success at such a young age, plus the transformation of Pittsburgh's offense, there's no telling what kind of numbers and victories he might mount up if he stays healthy.

It was first reported the deal had $36 million in guarantees, although more recently I've seen $33.2 in a few places, so I'll go with that (and the $3 million wouldn't really make a difference in the analysis anyways). The salary cap in the upcoming season is approximately $116 million dollars. Thus, we can extract the following numbers.

Total/Guaranteed: $102/$33


Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $12.75/$4.125


Total Salary Cap ($116) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~11% / ~ 4%

So, if Ben reaches all the provision of the contract, he will make on average $12.75 million per year. The organization may be hedging their bets that he will not do so, but the agreed upon terms at least reflects that they are willing to allocate roughly 11% of their cap space on Ben over the course of the next decade. Of course, if/when the cap jumps, this % would decrease accordingly, but let's say for organization's sake, that it should remain roughly between 8-12%. If Ben were to tragically get hurt or forget how to throw the ball altogether and was cut this year, he would only make the guaranteed portion, or roughly 4% of the team's cap space, as is allowed by the rule in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that lets teams spread out the exorbitant costs of giving guaranteed money to today's players.

First up, our friend from the AFC North:

Carson Palmer:

Palmer signed a 9-year, $118 million dollar contract in late 2005 (it became effective for the '06 season) right as he was in the midst of leading the Bengals to their best season since the late '80s and their first postseason apperance under new head coach Marvin Lewis. The contract included a whopping $38 million guaranteed.  At the time of this deal, I thought it looked clear he was well on his way to joining Brady & Manning at the very pinnacle of the QB position, oh how times change.

Total/Guaranteed: $118/$38

Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Over Life Of Deal: $13/$4.22

Total Salary Cap ($102 - 2006 cap figure) Allocation by % of Total Paid Per Year/Guaranteed Prorated Per Year: ~ 13% / ~4.14 %

While I believe, and most analysts agree that it seems Palmer has all the tools to be great, he hasn't quite had a great year by any stretch since that '05 year when the Bengals won the AFC North.  He can make every throw and probably throws the most accurate deep ball in the game, particularly the long out route to either TJ or Chad Johnson.  Cincy coaches say he asks the receivers which shoulder they want it thrown to on deep routes, and he usually hits his mark.  By far he is the quarterback on this list who I fear the most when things are clicking for him and the Bengals' offense.  However, he hasn't delivered the way I (and I think most others) thought he would the past two years while at the peak of his physical career..  His lack of success - relatively speaking - is either related to the ridiculous environment in Cincinnati, or some "it" factor that Palmer is missing. As a result, the contract now seems a little steep, but it is certainly not too late for him to turn things around and again be considered one of the elite franchise QBs in the game worth breaking the bank for.  Being a Steelers fan, this is hard to say, but I'd like to see him get it going again and have some great Bengals v. Steelers showdowns, not to mention the Ben vs. Carson banter that would follow in its wake in future years.  Palmer at his best is a sight to see.  

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NFL Draft Scout has great write-ups, and I've been reading more and more about Pittsburgh Panthers OL (projects as a guard but can play center or tackle) Mike McGlynn.  His write-up is particularly impressive to me.  The team excelled in running the ball behind him.  Only gave up a couple QB pressures, and had excellent blocking consistency numbers.  While his 40 times (5.38) isn't particularly impressive, his 10-yard split, which is more important for an OL, is pretty decent.  Has good strength numbers too.  Can anyone who has seen him play fill me in on what he looks like on film?  Or anyone just want to add their opinion.  He might be a "steal" type pick in the third or fourth from how I'm interpreting what I've read.

Bumped. Busy couple of days for me so thanks for keeping the info fresh all of you. I'd have to agree that this move probably signifies that McFarland will not be signed. Probably though. Not certainly. Both Eason and McFarland would come on the cheap and it's not at all unplausible to think that both will be with the team, at least through the initial stages of training camp. We'll see. Conversation on the matter also found in maryrose's diary about Booger McFarland.

-Blitz-

Steelers has us signing Nick Eason to a two year deal.  No terms disclosed.  Probably vet. minimum.  So I think it's official we did NOT sign McFarland, and this move is most likely related to that.  Looks like a young, versatile DL type is still needed in the draft.  I think the 2nd round would be a good spot to pick one up if we can find the right value.  I really like Frank Okam and we could pick him up much later than the 2nd most likely.

From the Steelers website.  Great article, Hartwig seems to have a good head on his shoulders and have a good work ethic.  (As he should, he gets paid millions a year to play football).  Regardless, liked how he appreciates the Steelers history and passed up Faneca & Hartings numbers out of respect.  Not expecting #62 to make a Pro Bowl, but I do have high hopes he can be a very solid center for us.  Of course, I didn't think Hartings would be a Pro-Bowler so you never know.  Sounds like he's also a pretty solid leader.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_558050.html

Aqib Talib visiting.  Not sure what to make of this.  Original thought is its part of the smokescreen poker we play every year.  Make other teams think we aren't going to draft B. Albert or some other OL prospect so that they won't get stolen from us.  On the other hand, the O-line is looking better after FA so we could take him if he's the best player available at the #23 draft spot.  Or if he falls to the 2nd round.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_557915.html

Have us heavily interested in Justin King.  I don't see it but it should be noted it's rare both a coach and GM go to a Pro Day.  However, this was Penn State so it's a short ride away for our front office.  Wouldn't read too much into it, but I guess we could give him a look in the 2nd round.  Especially if we think B-Mac is going to leave or Townsend is on his last legs.

Know this is kind of being discussed in the comments on the Hartwig signings but had these thoughts:

- We now have competition at EVERY spot on the O-Line.  Competition among athletes at this level almost always results in people stepping up their play.  New England's O-Line is partly so good because they have depth and thus, competition always.  A look at each position and the players incentive to improve/win the starting job (left out some people I feel have no chance at starting, like Trai Essex):

Left Tackle:

Marvel Smith.  Alot of things here.  First of which is it's a contract year, which almost always bodes well.  Second wants to show the injury is behind him.  Also has Starks pushing him and if he loses his starting job, well, he'll probably be relegated to small money next off-season if that happens.  

Max Starks.  Depending on what happens with his contract (and position as he could be the RT as well).  He has to win one of the starting jobs or this will be his last year as a Steeler, and severely limit his potential payout on the FA market.

Left Guard:

Chris K.  Again, payday.  Signed the one-year deal so he basically is auditioning for all the teams in the league this year.  Not to mention if we draft Brandon Albert he's going to have to really kick-ass and take names to be the starter and get his green.

Mahan.  Knows the team thinks poorly of him as a center.  If he has a bad year or doesn't show some improvement in camp, he'll be cut at the end of this coming season.  

Center:

Hartwig.  Most likely has the starters job wrapped up, barring big development by Stapleton (or an even longer shot, Mahan).  Still has massive incentive to play his ass off as he signed a very cheap, short deal with the team (most likely) so that he could play his way into another big payday in two years.  He'll be wanting to prove to the league he is worth the kind of money the Panthers originally gave him.  

Stapleton.  Pushed for time last year before injuries and looks to be very talented.  Knows Hartwig was cheap and if he can have a great offseason/training camp and steal the Center spot, he (or his agent is telling him probably) the Steelers would have no problem cutting Hartwig (because he was so cheap) if Stapleton proved to be a star.  

Right Guard:

Kendall Simmons.  I was never entirely sold on Simmons.  He floats between slightly above-average starter to mediocre, to below-average starter.  However, given the fact he massively underperformed last year, I'd expect him to come back with a vengeance and give us a solid, slightly above-average performance for the season.  Like Mahan he's probably too expensive to cut as early as sometime in training camp so I'd imagine the RG spot is penciled down as his.  But his agent is sure to be letting him know if he has another down year, we will cut him and let the depth behind him sort itself out.

Mahan.  Same as left guard prognosis.  Mahan looks to be a backup (as 2nd or 3rd string) at 3 O-line spots.

...must also raise the possibility of Willie Colon moving inside to RG.  He'd certainly be motivated to take Simmons starting spot so that he could ensure himself a future in this league.

Right Tackle:

Colon.  Wants to show he has what it takes to be a starting RT in this league and get the glory, er, I mean dollars, associated with playing the tackle spot.  Once his rookie contract is up.  If he can't beat out Starks, then he's most likely going to end up a career back-up.

Starks.  Same as left tackle.

After writing this I still really believe we will take Brandon Albert.  If we do that, then Chris K. can move to the competition at RG, if he plays well and takes Simmons job, we cut Simmons and/or Mahan AFTER the '08 season, give Chris K. a long-term deal (like the one Simmons had) and he becomes our long-term starting RG.  Albert our long-term starting LG.  Furthermore, if Albert pans out as a tackle, then we have three, maybe four quality tackles on the roster and can afford to let Marvel Smith or Max Starks walk after next year, assuming one of them earns a big payday.  My projected starters, assuming we draft Albert.

Smith
Albert
Hartwig
Kemo
Starks

Look at the size of that line.  Big & nasty.  Big at every spot.  Athletic and quick at every spot except Kemo.  (Starks is quick when his weight is right like it was last year, and you assume it will be this year in a contract year.)  That line might end up a top 10 line in the league for us.  They would be maulers in the run game, and solid in pass protection.  In '09 if that same line stays together, we might be looking at a top 5 line in the league.  I'm a believer, like Tomlin, that competition brings out the best, well the Steelers O-Line this year will be a case study in that regards.