SB Nation User Blog: TheOdenator

Adjusted Point Differerential by Schedule

TheOdenator — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:45:39 -0000

So one thing has always bothered me about Hollinger's rating system, which is that he basis schedule strength on wins and losses, while he uses point differential for other aspects of determining the strength of the team. As point differential is a stronger stat with respect to predicting future winning, I took the schedule of each team, and created a strength of schedule based on the respective opponents point differential.

Team	Point Differential	Expected Point Differential	Difference from hypothetical ave team
Atlanta Hawks	5	-1.54	6.54
Boston Celtics	8.4	2.166666667	6.233333333
Dallas Mavericks	6.8	1.046666667	5.753333333
Portland Trail Blazers	8.3	2.841176471	5.458823529
Los Angeles Lakers	5.3	-0.142857143	5.442857143
Orlando Magic	6	0.5875	5.4125
San Antonio Spurs	4.2	-0.646153846	4.846153846
Denver Nuggets	7.5	3.446666667	4.053333333
Phoenix Suns	5.5	1.653333333	3.846666667
Oklahoma City Thunder	2.3	-1.326666667	3.626666667
Houston Rockets	0.8	-1.986666667	2.786666667
Cleveland Cavaliers	4.5	2.34	2.16
Utah Jazz	1.2	-0.64	1.84
Miami Heat	1.5	0.75	0.75
Milwaukee Bucks	3.3	3	0.3
Detroit Pistons	-2.7	-2.02	-0.68
New Orleans Hornets	-3.3	-2.4625	-0.8375
Charlotte Bobcats	-1.4	-0.464285714	-0.935714286
Golden State Warriors	-2.2	-0.614285714	-1.585714286
Toronto Raptors	-2.8	-1.19375	-1.60625
Indiana Pacers	-1	1.023076923	-2.023076923
Sacramento Kings	-1.7	0.478571429	-2.178571429
Chicago Bulls	-6.5	-2.964285714	-3.535714286
Washington Wizards	-5	-1.338461538	-3.661538462
Los Angeles Clippers	-3.8	1.28125	-5.08125
Philadelphia 76ers	-4.3	0.786666667	-5.086666667
Memphis Grizzlies	-5.4	0.42	-5.82
New York Knickerbockers	-7.3	-0.26	-7.04
New Jersey Nets	-10.4	-0.746666667	-9.653333333
Minnesota Timberwolves	-14	-2.406666667	-11.59333333

To explain the headings point differential is the difference between the points the team has scored and the points other teams have scored against them. The Expected point differential is the average point differential for every team they have played thus far. An example would be so an average team on X's schedule would have beaten them by 4, so the expectation is a 4 point win, and so if they won by 5, after one game their 'Difference from the Hyopthetical Average Team' would be 1.

If a team has just played difficult competition that everyone else has also been losing to, then their expected point differential would be low, while if the team has had a creampuff schedule the expected point differential would be high. In this based upon point differential the Nuggets have played the weakest schedule so far, the Bucks the second weakest, and the Blazers the third, while the Bulls and Hornets have played the two roughest schedules to date.

While I do believe that this data does provide valuable insights and that I would stand by this as a ranking of the teams as to how they have played throughout the season up to now, this method does have its flaws. The most obvious being that teams that have played a creampuff schedule will have an artificially high Expected Point Differential, which will mess with the average for the couple of decent teams they have played. If anyone can think of a way to deal with this I can send you the data that I used (basketball-reference.com is where I initially downloaded it), or just feel free to take this yourself. The second most obvious being it doesn't take into account home-away or pace, as the previous stat fan-shot explained in a game with a slow pace a ten point lead can be more imperssive than a 20 point one in a Golden State - Knicks game.

Let me know what you guys think, and if anybody else is interested in combining some of these "advanced" stats for a BE power ranking.

Howard Bryant's Take on Retiring Jordan's #

TheOdenator — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:15:22 -0000

Howard Bryant's Take on Retiring Jordan's #

I really liked this article, and thought it did a great job explaining why not only is this a bad idea, but truly why Jackie Robinson's number was retired.

On an interesting side note, growing up I went to the same church as the man who took second in Rookie of the Year voting the year Robinson won it Larry Jansen. He recently passed away .

But yea anyways just wanted to share this article.

Travis working out this summer. Seriously follow this guy on twitter, he's hilarious.

TheOdenator — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:59:49 -0000

Travis working out this summer. Seriously follow this guy on twitter, he's hilarious.

Your Second Favorite Team (now with a poll!)

TheOdenator — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:32:26 -0000

Henry Abbot of TrueHoop recently posed the question to his 'Truehoop Network of Bloggers' who is your second favorite team and why. I would definitely be interested in other people's take on this including Ben and Dave.

This site seemed like a good place to pose this question as 90% of us already know what each others' first favorite team is, and I thought it would be interesting to hear who else you root for in this league of ours. If you don't have a second favorite team I would heartily suggest finding one, and hopefully some other commentators can convince you to watch theirs. A second favorite team gives you more chances to watch other games, a commitment to seeing how a different style fares against the different match-ups. And the freedom to root for a team, and never feel the deep disappointment when you see the team fall.

As I have stated before my second favorite team until this last year was the Suns. I loved watching them, I really liked what they were doing, and I really liked the individual players on their team. From Amare, Diaw, Nash, and D'Antoni each person was committed to running, and each player had confidence in themselves and each other player on their team. The shots were plentiful and pretty, the idea of basketball being a truly beautiful game, that was both fun and fast was just an awesome thing to watch. While the Blazers were rebuilding and these last couple of years playing a game of pace, it was awesome to watch how the other teams in the league competed against a team that was/is virtually completely opposite.

Going into this next year, I think the team I am going to spend following second to the Blazers may in fact be the Wizards. Arenas back on the court, with one of my favorite SF in Butler, Jameson playing on his last legs, Miller hopefully rebounding from a dreadful last season, and Haywood hopefully being healthy and back into the line-up. Getting rid of Eddie Jordan was just plain idiotic, but I look forward to seeing just audacious displays of confidence (GA), efficiency (Butler), growth (McGee) (Young), experience (Jameson), and players rebounding from playing poorly (Miller) and injury (Haywood).

So I want to know your take, who is going to be your second favorite team next year?

Poll

4 votes

I root for specific players but don't have a 2nd favorite team

44 votes

I don't have a 2nd favorite team :(

18 votes

I'm just kind of impressed you took the time to type all these names out

7 votes

Whoever the Lakers are playing.

55 votes

346 votes | Poll has closed

Holy Cow Number 4 in Hollinger's Rankings

TheOdenator — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 07:37:24 -0000

Holy Cow Number 4 in Hollinger's Rankings

Okay so I know these rankings don't mean anything. But I still thought this was pretty cool. And we are closer to the Magic in the three spot than we are to the Celtics in 5th. We've gone over this before, they are hardly reliable, what do they really show, etc. etc. But hey, we're in 4th.

The Sun Sets in Phoenix...

TheOdenator — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 06:32:40 -0000

Tonight marks the end of an era in Phoenix. I will be honest, I followed and loved the Suns during the dark days of the Blazers franchise. When the season ended for us, I followed the Suns in their playoff run.

I loved everything about this team. The players, the style, the absolute unbridled love of the game. While many purists look to the Spurs as the team of the era, I will always have a special place in my heart for the Suns of 2003-2008. The Spurs were the defense and intensity and as different as points of the compass the Suns were the offense and joy. The black and gray of the East was highlighted and enhanced by the brash purple and orange to the West.

As Freedarko has said "they unleashed a running game on a league that was stagnated with half court offenses". It was like a mugging in a peaceful meadow, it would take the league a season to realize this team of unknowns were serious, and another yet to realize that not only were they serious; they were dangerous.

The league had grown boring, predictable even, and the Suns with D'Antoni at the helm, showed that there were other ways to win. There were entire other styles that were yet undiscovered... and they could work. While the Suns would have "problems" in the playoffs. While reaching the Western Conference Finals, and being right there several times, the Suns never got over the hump. They sure as heck deserved to, but that is its own thing.

The team that could have been, is a hack name for a great team. But they had the potential, they had the style, they just ran into the anti-suns every year. The black hole where style and substance is sucked into a wormhole of defense and rigid structure. Every year something would happen: a fluke injury to a key role player, a ridiculous 3, a completely ridiculous bet saving double technical foul. The Sun hardly notices the planets as they orbit, but these Suns should understand the profound effect they have had on this league.

While Amare will get back and the Suns will once again fight next year for the post-season, they will be one year older and will almost certainly have a different roster. I feel we should just take a moment and show some respect from onr of the great programs of the last several years, and while this style won't be marked with the lasting Monument of the Larry O'Brien Trophy, their style has changed the NBA.

Thank you Suns.

Greg Oden makes a full court shot! In case the embed didn't work

TheOdenator — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:54:15 -0000

Greg Oden makes a full court shot!

In case the embed didn't work

Weekend Junk Drawer

TheOdenator — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 21:04:34 -0000

So what the heck does Rasheed do to get so darn many technical fouls? He already has 12(!) this season, which averages out to 1 every 2.33 games. Is the FreeDarko book to blame for this? He gets a one game suspension when he gets to 16 technical fouls (I believe) and then a one game suspension for every technical foul after that (All of this information comes from espn's weekend dime). But what could he be possibly doing to get all of these T's??

I mean KG is taunting, trash talking, and throwing cheap elbows and he isn't getting these technical's called. Is it because Rasheed talks to the refs instead of the other players? Is this was a technical foul is supposed to be? The defense of the refs from having to hear someone complain? Or is a technical foul supposed to protect the players on the court from an egregious breaking of the rules?

Anyways feel free to completely ignore these questions, as this is the Weekend JD, but I am kind of perplexed as to what Rasheed (12) could possibly be doing that is so much worse than KG (4)...

Here's some background on the freedarko Sheed chapter: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tbAxmsNzio&eurl=http://www.freedarkobook.com/stats.html

Ian Thompson has no memory

TheOdenator — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 00:24:38 -0000

Ian Thompson has no memory

Ian Thomspon says: "This might have been the worst official decision I have ever seen at a major sporting event"

He apparently doesn't remember the Suns getting a technical for stepping on to the floor in the playoffs.

Or the Kings getting slammed over and over again with non-existent fouls in the western conference finals.

Colorado's infamous "5th down".

1972 Olympics: enough said.

Or the numerous calls that went against the Blazer's in this game.

It was simply a missed call, like some of the others that happened in this game. Worst official decision in sporting history? You've got to be kidding me.

This fanpost will probably get me banned from BE

TheOdenator — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 00:06:32 -0000

This is going to be one of those posts that will either light up, or fizzle with every one calling me an idiot.

Alright so in 2 years Kobe Bryant becomes a free agent. But this summer he also has the ability to terminate his contract and become an unrestricted free agent. Would you accept him as a Blazer? (ref: http://articles.latimes.com/2008/oct/24/sports/sp-kobe24)

There is reason to believe that Kobe would be interested in coming to Portland. He has praised Nate by saying:

“He’s one of the best coaches I’ve seen,”

(ref: www.kgw.com/sports/olympics/localnews/stories/kgw_081908_olympics_mcmillan_coach.)

He has stated that Brandon Roy is one of his favorite players in the league and he likes his game a lot . (ref: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSuTpK5-j3g)

He has always been a player who has had an obsessive desire with making himself better and being a championship team.

The Freedarko book makes the case that Kobe forced the issue with Shaq, because of Shaq becoming lazy and getting old, and Bryant was looking forward to the future where Shaq would be handicapping the team. (Others make the case that Bryant is a an attention hog, as well as a ball hog)

While the Blazers have not shown they are anywhere near a championship team yet, arguably they are better than the Lakers would be without Kobe. So I pose the question to you, would you accept a free agent signing of Kobe Bryant, or is your hatred too deep?

Poll

Would you support Kobe becoming a Blazer?

Yes, as I learned to love Scottie Pippen, I can learn to love Kobe.

79 votes

No, I hate that guy.

100 votes

We won't have the money available, so this is a stupid question.

27 votes

Kobe really actually hates the Blazers, and those things he said were lies.

26 votes

The Lakers without Kobe are better than the Blazers, so why would he want to leave?

6 votes

I really don't hate Kobe, but his style of play would not mesh with our team.

47 votes

285 votes | Poll has closed