An analysis of the Nov 5 Game of the Century using Brian Burke's analysis of 4th down decision making.

But if we had a plus one, the odds for the Tigers go down but not by much. Check out the link for those numbers. Incredible respect for this team and what it has accomplished.

...or we would throw out our algorithm and start over. We calculate the likelihood of your opponent in the national championship game.

No undefeated teams from the SEC would help the Broncos make the national championship game. Also, we have odds that Boise State is the only undefeated team at the end of the season.

That's not a very high likelihood. Beating Bama in the Tuscaloosa Tussle means not having to play them again.

The ultimate BCS chaos scenario is an undefeated Alabama/LSU, a strong one loss LSU/Alabama and the undefeated Broncos. We put some numbers behind this situation.

Larger than you might think. The Power Rank calculates the probability that each of 10 teams remains undefeated and more important questions about a national championship game for the Broncos.

The real polls are too much about "what have you done for me lately". Our rankings use a one year window of games and weight this year's games twice as much. The rankings beat the line in 55% of last year's bowl games. A ranking of 12 is not acceptable for the Ducks.

Our rankings beat the line in 55% of bowl games last season. The Broncos earn the top spot based on all games over the last calendar year.

Our ranking system is based on years of physics and math research and has gone 6 for 8 against the line in the NFL playoffs and 55% against the line in college football bowl games this year. We predict a lot of happy Packers fans on Sunday.

A fantastic TCU team is getting screwed out of a chance to play for the national championship. A 16 team playoff solves this problem. Join our Facebook campaign. It features contact information for all presidents of BCS schools, in case you want to make a polite phone call.

As much as I'll enjoy watching the Broncos tomorrow night, I'd rather have them travel to Norman and knock off Oklahoma in the first round of a 16 team playoff. It makes that missed kick a little less important.

With some prompting from obnug, the Power Rank now accounts for all games played by Division 1A, Football Bowl Championship teams. Accounting for Virginia Tech's loss to James Madison actually hurts the Broncos a little, but it won't matter much by the end of the season.

Hey Bronco fans, sick of computer rankings that don't account for margin of victory? Rankings make a lot more sense when they consider margin of victory.