SB Nation User Blog: TheStats

Which Remaining Team has the Least Desire?

TheStats — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:29:43 -0000

Some teams lose because they have less talent and others lose because they just don't have enough desire up and down the roster.

The Chicago Bulls had desire, I think, but not enough talent. The Houston Rockets clearly have desire, as do the Cavs.

But the Lakers, Celtics and Magic are lacking in desire. They kind of want it, but not that bad. The Magic have been choking. The Celtics won last year and may feel down without KG. The Lakers can't put away an injury-depleted Rockets team.

Which one wants it less?

Poll

Which team wants it less?

Lakers

123 votes

Celtics

41 votes

Magic

27 votes

191 votes | Poll has closed

Will Cavs Join List of Most Dominant Playoff Teams Ever?

TheStats — Tue, 12 May 2009 04:45:58 -0000

The Cavs are now 8-0 in the playoffs. The only other team to do that since the NBA switched to 7-game series in the first round is the Miami Heat in 2005. Miami went on to lose to Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the Cavs can avoid that fate they could become the most dominant single-season playoff team in NBA history or at least join the list of all-time dominant playoff teams. Here are the 10 best ever listed by playoff winning percentage:

Tie 9) .800, 16-4, San Antonio Spurs, 2007

Tie 9) .800, 12-3, LA Lakers, 1972

Tie 6) .833, 15-3, Boston Celtics, 1986

Tie 6) .833, 15-3, LA Lakers, 1987

Tie 6) .833, 15-3, Chicago Bulls, 1996

Tie 4) .857, 12-2, Milwaukee Bucks, 1971

Tie 4) 857, 12-2, LA Lakers, 1982

3) .882, 15-2, Chicago Bulls, 1991

2) .923, 12-1, Philadelphia 76ers, 1983

1) .9375, 15-1, LA Lakers, 2001

To join these ten teams the Cavs would have to win their next two series while dropping 4 or fewer games. If they lost only 1 game their mark would be 16-1, edging out the 2001 Lakers.

Another measure of dominance is point differential. Here are the only NBA playoff champions with double-digit point differentials in the playoffs:

6). 10.3 points, 1986 Celtics

5) 10.6 points, 1996 Bulls

4) 11.4 points, 1987 Lakers

3) 11.7 points, 1991 Bulls

2) 12.8 points, 2001 Lakers

1) 14.5 points, 1971 Bucks

Right now, through 8 games, the Cavs point differential is a phenomenal 16.75. It will be hard to keep it that high but that is already quite a feat.

Meanwhile, LeBron James' individual brilliance has actually increased since the post I wrote last week. More on that tomorrow.

LeBron on Pace for Most Dominating Playoffs Ever

TheStats — Thu, 07 May 2009 00:41:58 -0000

Five games into the playoffs LeBron James is on pace to record the most dominating individual performance ever as measured by P.E.R., a statistic that combines all the offensive and defensive stats recorded by the NBA. Here are the greatest single year playoff performances of all time:

1. LeBron James 41.82 (so far) this year

2. Hakeem Olajuwon 38.95 in 1988

3. George Mikan 33.58 in 1954

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 32.35 in 1977

5. Michael Jordan, 32.04 in 1991

Then there are six others at 31something including Dwight Howard so far this year. The Hakeem number should have an asterisk because they lost in the first round, only 4 games. Most likely that 38.95 would have dropped with more games. LeBron's number may drop too, especially when the Cavs face better teams.

LeBron is 6th and rising on the career playoff PER list at 25.38. There's a good chance he'll pass Olajuwon's 25.69 during these playoffs and then Tim Duncan and Shaq shortly thereafter. The top two will be tougher: Jordan at 28.59 and Mikan at 28.51. Still, even those numbers are not out of reach but it would take several more excellent playoff seasons.

LeBron led the league in PER during the regular this year. He trails only Michael Jordan and Shaq for career regular season PER and will probably pass Shaq next season.

LeBron's Projected Career Statistics

TheStats — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 04:02:20 -0000

LeBron James is about to complete his 6th professional season. Let's say he retires at age 36 after 18 NBA seasons. If that's true it's reasonable to triple his current totals to get an idea of where he'll end up. It's a conservative estimate because:

1. He might play beyond age 36. Superstars often go beyond 36. Shaq is 37. MJ went to 40 and Jabbar beyond that. Anyway, assuming 18 seasons is not crazy.

2. His current 6 years are hampered by his first NBA season when his scoring and some other statistical areas were considerably lower than years 2-6.

3. James' next 6 seasons will probably be statistically better than his first six because of 2. above and because most NBA players peak in the 25-30 range which fully encompasses his next 6 years.

Okay so where might James end up in the major statistical categories:

TOTAL POINTS: 1st all time

LeBron will finish this season with 13,000 regular season points for this career. Triple that and you get 39,000 points which would eclipse Kareem's 38,387

TOTAL ASSISTS: Top 6 all-time (possibly 2nd all time)

This is crazy. The list of the top 20 assist leaders is almost entirely point guards. James will end this season with about 3,180 assists. Triple that and you get 9,540 assists which would put James in 6th for his career. If his assists keep coming the way they have this year and last he could finish 2nd on the list. Nuts!

TOTAL STEALS: 2nd all time

Another insane result. LeBron will finish this year with about 838 career steals. He's been very consistent in this category. Triple his total and you get 2,514 which is the exact same career number as Michael Jordan who is 2nd all time. Come on LeBron, you're good for one more steal than that!

TOTAL REBOUNDS: Top 40 all time

This category is dominated by centers. LeBron will finish thsi year with about 3,333 rebounds which projects to about 10,000 even for this career or 37th place overall.

TOTAL BLOCKS: Top 50 all time

He'll end the year with about 415 for his career or 1,245 projected out to 18 seasons. That would put him at 46 on the current list. If he keeps blocking the way he is 2008-09 he could easily crack the top 40 all time.

So there you have it. Quite an impressive collection of career statistics if he pulls it off. No one, including Jordan, has totals like these. Of course Jordan took those seasons off for baseball, but still.