I was disappointed but not shocked when PECOTA put the Rays at 3rd for the 09 season, but happy to see a 90+ win prediction and a close race.  Obviously anything can happen.  One guy who agrees with this is a blogger out of Toronto who wouldn't be shocked to see the Rays win only 78 games, and had some less than favorable things to say about their off season moves:

EARLY AL EAST PREDICTIONS

Now, I'm not attacking Mr. Evans, but I did feel compelled to chip in my 2 cents.  I thought this was interesting to get an off beat take on the Rays.  We all know Sox fans expect the Rays to fall back this season, but that's an expectation tinged with more than a pinch of hope.  Here is a Toronto fan who is essentially calling the Rays this year's Rockies.  That's a fresh, original take and all, but what's interesting to me is the perspective.  Now that we have a Jays fan's take, we need a Padres fan to tell us why the Rays will disappoint this season.    

Joe Maddon is known for his quirky managing style.  Some of his moves go against conventional wisdom but are backed up by the numbers (like the 34 defense on Papi), others fly in the face of both (remember walking J-Ham with the bases loaded was a genius move only because it worked-I loved it!).  

One of the things I loved last season was the Rays' bullpen management down the stretch as Maddon was forced to mix and match at the end of games.  I believe being a closer is largely about mentality, and Joe seems to like his more veteran guy in the 9th.  Sure, some of the best RPs in the game are closers, but a look at top WPA for relievers last season shows plenty of setup men:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=n&type=3&season=2008

Notice the prominence of JP and Balfour.  The point here is that the 7th and 8th can often be the more critical innings if say, a pitcher must retire the heart of the order in a close game.  Now you can see the closers are appearing to clock in with the highest leverage on the list but keep in mind that with only 3 outs left, retiring a batter increases win probability more dramatically than if there are still 9 outs left.  I know this has probably been discussed here before but I thought it might make for a good discussion right now.

For a little more background, check out this BP commentary -  I think its pretty clear that Maddon might be the manager closest to marginalizing the Closer and reviving the relief Stopper: 

BP: How to Run a Bullpen

Dan Wheeler is actually a good pitcher.  His numbers are good, and aside from 07 they've been really good his whole career.  When he gets into trouble its because of the long ball.  His HR/9 is too high in all but his best seasons.  But it isn't horrible.  The reason we might have mixed-feelings about Wheeler is probably only half justified- The rest is perception bias:

Last season he saw 207 plate appearances late and close and allowed only .656 OPS.

But in just 50 PAs in 17 games that were Tied, he gave up 4 bombs and allowed a 1.047 OPS.

Yes he choked at key times, but then again many other times he was nails.  Of course, everybody remembers the bad over the good.  Yet while he is still a valuable pitcher, there are warning signs:    

Yes his k/9 has declined from his career peeks, but 7.2 k/9 and relatively low walk rate puts him in with a cohort of effective relievers.  The real problem is the long ball and when you see a guy who has always hung around 38%-36% GB% fall to 28% GB% I think we see the problem- 

Um, Hey Dan?  Yeah, could you go ahead and keep that ball down?