News has just leaked from the Cubs front office that the team may be pursuing 30 year old Baltimore second baseman, Brian Roberts. Roberts would bolster a somewhat shaky Chicago middle infield.

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that we're first hearing about this so close to the beginning of spring training. This all seems to have come right out of the blue.

 Surely, Roberts's speed and on-base skills would greatly help the cubs, but will he really be that big of an upgrade over DeRosa?

Plus, who knows what kind of packages Andy McPhail will ask for in return? Can we really afford to lose our few quality trading chips? As long as we keep all-star caliber players like Ryan Theriot, and Sam Fuld, I won't get too upset.

This is an interesting development, for sure. I'm at the edge of my seat, impatiently waiting for the next chapter in this sudden, and by all accounts short, saga.

I'm not going to bother posting anything meaningful about Murton now. My opinion is well known: I'm not a big fan of him or his game, but he's definitely not worthless.

That being said, I feel compelled to post this nice picture that Ryno took of Murton when he didn't have his makeup on, and wasn't wearing his orange wig: in short, this is how Matt looks when he doesn't have his game face on...complements of Ryno from the matt murton weak-ass ground ball fan fest blog....sparkles--LOOK AWAY:

I'm talking about the greatest softball pitcher of all time, Eddie Feigner. I'm going to bed right now,  but I figured I'd post a simple diary now, and add later. He was an interesting man with a hell of an arm.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/printedition/cs-0702100183feb10,1,7675792.story?coll= cs-sports-print

I figured that you people, if anyone, could recommend some good books regarding baseball for my signature bathroom collection. It doesn't have to be light reading: several years ago, I read most of the Aeneid in there in short intervals. In fact, I'd say that about 90 percent of the productive things that I actually do are accomplished in my throne room with my porcelain pal.

I'm interested in anything baseball: novels, novellas, (auto)biographies, statistical studies, general histories or historical studies of specific eras (the Negro Leagues are particularly fascinating) etc. etc. etc.

The Cubs are going to lose 2 players to free agency next year that will undoubtedly fall under the top 10 most sought after free agents. Carlos Zambrano (he's an easy number 1) and Michael Barrett.

I think the one trait that all of the best GMs have in common is that they know how to selectively cut the cord with some of their better/more popular players when the time is right for whatever reason. Sometimes their reasoning is because that player is overvalued on the current market, and can net the team an asymmetric benefit in the team's favor through a trade. Sometimes their reasoning is more simple: the team cannot afford all of their veterans (talented vets are never cost effective), and therefore must selectively keep those players that afford the team the highest marginal utility.

Regardless of the reason (and there are many), trading talented veterans can often be a shrewd and bold move by a GM if executed correctly. Many questioned Billy Beane after he traded Mulder and Hudson before the 2005 season. While these trades didn't net the Athletics massive dividends, they did come away with Danny Haren, and saved millions of dollars in the end on two pitchers that have largely spent their time since either injured or ineffective.

This brings me to my point: the cubs simply cannot afford BOTH Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett, and will need to part with at least one of them. The Cubs have dug themselves a hole with massive, backloaded contracts, and just can't keep piling on additional multimillion dollar pacts unless they want to spend 2010 playing with a 5 man team like Eddie Feigner and his four man King's court.

Zambrano presents an exceedingly complicated dilemma for Jim Hendry, and I don't pretend to know the answer. I have opinions (that seem to change regularly on this issue), but I could easily be wrong. On one hand, he is a fantastic young pitcher, and is only 25; on the other hand, he could net us some serious prospects in a trade (probably two potentially impact players plus a third solid player) and I really don't like EVER giving pitchers contracts longer than a standard presidential term, and certainly not the length of a two-termer. So I really don't know about Z. I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be incredibly sad to see him leave regardless (shrewd, bold GMs are great because they don't care about upsetting fans when they know the move is best for the team): he's my favorite Cub right now. Hendry isn't exactly the boldest GM, so I will be somewhat surprised to see Z traded during the season, but that might end up being the smartest possible move when all is said and done. At this point, no one knows, and (to quote Mr. Tweek), Z really has Hendry's balls in a juicer right now. I wouldn't want to be the guy who makes that decision.

I think the course of action concerning Barrett is much clearer. I've made my opinion known in the past that although it's great to get production out of a traditionally weak offensive position like catcher, I really don't like relying on the catcher for offense when there are other places on the field that can potentially be improved offensively (second base and shortstop to name 2). Catchers don't see nearly as many PAs over a season as other position players, and, due to the nature of the position, tend to break down and produce less down the stretch and (potentially) into the postseason. Add this to the fact that Barrett is a below average defender at one of the few positions where defense is at least nearly as important as offensive production (although many consider in more important).

This leads me to believe that Michael Barrett can safely be expended in a trade. He IS overvalued in many circles (especially among those that covet offensive production from their catcher, and those that like him for his "old-school", "hard-nosed", "scrappy", "insert baseball cliche here" playing style). Obviously, he won't bring close to the bounty of talent that trading Z would potentially bring, but near the trade deadline, he's worth at least a couple solid prospects. He'd potentially be worth an impact prospect or two if we weren't trading him as a rental player, but that is still probably our best bet right now.

If the Cubs DO end up trading Zambrano instead, I think it becomes less necessary to let Barrett go, but I really do not see the Cubs keeping them both. We've seen the Cubs spend money, but now comes the true test: we need to see Hendry grow some balls and finally make some bold trades. Maybe he could borrow KW's balls for a while, as I do believe his are enormous.

over at minorleagueball, sickels is scheduled to come out with the top 20 list of cubs prospects some time today, and I'm giddy in anticipation. Although this may be the cherry on top of the diary pollution landfill, I figured I would rank my top 5, and open the floor for either your version of the top 5, or more pirate jokes.

The way I see it:

1. Don Veal
   
2. Felix Pie
   
3. Sean Gallagharrrgh (still thinking about pirates)
   
4. Mark Pawelek (look for a breakout 07)
   
5. Eric Patterson (not a huge fan, but he is the relatively close to the majors)

Honorable mentions: Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Colvin,  Scott Moore, Mitch Atkins

That is a sorry list after the first few. There ARE guys deeper in the system that may one day make it (chris Huesby comes to mind and possibly Jose Ceda), but they are too far away right now to list above.  

Also, we lost lincoln Holdzkom in the rule V draft, and I would really like to get him back, because he apparently throws a mid 90s fastball with good sink, and never gives up homers (caveat: he's had arm problems). I am annoyed that the cubs protected rocky cherry, rather than holdzkom: typical stupid cub move. Update [2006-12-14 19:5:16 by Thelonious Drunk]: The rankings are officially up. Sickels had the exact same players in his top 5 as me, although some have switched places. http://www.minorleagueball.com/

You don't have the be the prognosticator to...er....prognosticate. Rather than suffering another year of will they or won't they (break down like a 1982 Yugo), why don't we embrace our pitchers' fragileness.

I present to you all a chance to forecast which pitcher will break down first. Al will generously provide expensive prizes to the winners.

Feel free to comment on your reasoning below; you can also comment on which of these pitchers will actually be productive next year.

Poll

Which Pitcher will be the first to break out a fresh shipment of towels?

69%

Mark "The Prodigal Son" Prior

100 votes

13%

Wade "Sugar Plum Fairy" Miller

19 votes

16%

Kerry "Splintered" Wood

24 votes

143 votes | Poll has closed

I liked Tomas's idea to make a diary each day to group every rumor under one roof, so I figured I'd make today's. I also figured I'd leave you with a few things to talk about...

There is some speculation that Marcus Giles will be non-tendered by the Braves due to tepid trade interest from other teams (and the Braves really want/need to dump salary). You can read about that here (in the middle of the article):

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/printedition/2006/12/08/sptbraves1208a.html

IMO, I would shoot for Giles even if they don't non-tender him (go for a trade). I know we just picked up DeRosa, but Giles is really a significant upgrade (3 years younger, career OPS about 80 points higher), and given this year's market, keeping DeRosa as a utility man isn't THAT ridiculous (we can always trade him near the trade deadline when teams are desperate if we want to dump salary). Even in a worst case scenario if Giles has a down year like last year, or if he gets injured, we still have a highly competent backup to take his place. To me, this is a no-brainer, but knowing the Cubs, I don't see them acting on this. I'm actually kinda surprised that no team is interested enough in Giles to trade for him...unless there is something I don't know about him, of course...he seems like a pretty solid option at second base to me.

In other news...

If the reports are true, and the Cubs actually do pick up Jason Marquis, I might have to burn Jim Hendry in Effigy and turn in my cub fan membership card. This guy is league average AT BEST, and wasn't anywhere close to league average last season. Paying more than 9 million per year (as reports have said) to this little league caliber pitcher is completely asinine. I would be happier if they just saved their money, and started ANY of the young guys we had pitching last year, sans Les Walrond (although I believe he left) than sign Marquis. Hell, I would rather we have Biz Markie pitch  than Jason Marquis.

If Jim is dumb enough to pay 9 million a year for Marquis, why doesn't he just save that, and open his purse (its not a purse, its a european carry-all!) and blow 17-18 million per year on a number 2/3 like Zito (of whom I am not a big fan, but he is lightyears ahead of Marquis, talentwise). Even if Zito decides he doesn't want to play in Chicago, we'd still save the 9 million per year on a Marquis contract, and we could just have Marshall/Guzman/Ryu/Mateo/anyone but Marquis pitch.

Soriano's contract might be an albatross in 5 or 6 years, but its truly rare when you can have an instant albatross--unfortunately, in contract terms, Marquis's albatross of a contract won't get up and fly away (it will be more like a fat penguin with two broken legs and a learning disability).

Anyway, my rant is over. Discuss, and post saturday's rumors here.

This might not necesitate a diary, I don't really care. To quote cartman, "whateva. I do what I want"

For those that were earlier advocating we sign Padilla, apparently the Rangers ARE going to retain him, so apparently the concerns about his arm falling off aren't as major as some thought (or the rangers are stupid).

The preliminary deal is for 3/34 million. I guess this DOES affect us, in that it sets the market for the second tier pitchers. This might have bearing on what we end up paying Lilly if/when we sign him, which now seems likely, although this affect might not be too pronounced, since it sounds like the two camps have already been in extensive talks. I do think this sets the framework for a Meche deal, although I think he will probably get 4 years.

Here's the link to ESPN's winter meeting coverage:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2685697

This deal would be predicated on two things:

1. the red sox actually sign Matsuzaka
   
2. The Cubs pick up Lugo (yes, I know Mike, call you old fashioned, but you don't like wifebeaters on the Cubs)

If the Red Sox sign Matsuzaka, they will have 7 starting pitchers (although one is injured):
Schilling
Papelbon
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Wakefield
Lester
Clement - injured

Even with Clement hurt, that still leaves them with 6 healthy pitchers. Since they have a surplus, why not try to swing a trade:

They have two major needs:

1. a closer
   
2. a starting shortstop

If the Cubs pick up Lugo, we can fill those two needs with Dempster/Eyre/Howry and Izturis. If the Red Sox need the deal to be sweetened further, we can send Scott Moore: We have our third basemen locked up for several years now, blocking Moore, and the Red Sox would definitely be happy to have a young (just turned 23 last month) power hitting 3B prospect who fits into their mold by posting solid OBP numbers (and he's a lefty), and Lowell is getting into his mid-30s.

I don't know why I haven't heard more talk about the red sox trading a starter. If they do sign Matsuzaka, it seems highly unlikely that they would actually go into the season with 7 starters when they have other needs. [editor's note, by Thelonious Drunk] I checked, and apparently he IS still fighting cancer. So clearly, I now look like a dumbass for making this suggestion. However, I do think that the Crisp trade proposal IS a good idea.

Just so you all know, if it hasn't been said here before, the scout network (cubs.scout.com) is free through this weekend. Personally, I went back and read every story that I had seen over the season and said "I wish I wasn't too cheap to pay for this, because this looks interesting". Enjoy.

While I have your attention, I was wondering what you all think about some of our many fringe prospects. My thoughts on some various minor leaguers:

Scott Moore: We should move him to the outfield: give him an extended trial in either left or right field next year at triple A. He's still only 22, but he's completely blocked at third base, and doesn't seem to have the range or the glove skills to play shortstop or second (he's had time at both). He already has a little experience in the outfield. With his plus opposite field power, and decent OBP skills he has a chance to be a decent offensive player if he can develop better plate discipline. PLus, as a bonus, he's a lefty.

Jake Fox: He is overrated by our system, in my opinion. I don't like him behind the plate at all, and I really don't think he has a good chance to make it in the mlb.

Carmen Pignatiello/Clay Rapada: Both could be lefty specialists, and "Pigs" has a chance to work against both righties and lefties. Pigs has a very good hook and very good control (hits high 80s to low 90s reportedly) while Rapada pitches either low 3/4 or sidearm. I give both of them a decent chance of seeing time in our bullpen next season (probably one or the other, and Rapada has already been included on the 40 man roster).

Now granted, none of us know how much the Cubs have decided to bump their payroll up to, but I submit to you all that there are far more productive things that the Cubs can do to shore up their rotation and imrove the team instead of spending upwards of 15 million dollars a year over 3 or more years on Jason Schmidt. Here are some points:

* There are two possible trade options that would make our rotation excellent without having to pay for a FA. The best involves using a Pie marquee'd trade for Johh Johnson. I know Beinfest is very interested in Pie, which is nice, because I'm very interested in Johnson.

Second a trade for either Jake Westbrook or Jason Jennings. Depending on whom we send in this trade may effect later moves (see below).

* If both of those trades are made, I am officially happy with our rotation, consisting of:

1. Charles Zambrano
   
2. Hill
   
3. Jake Westbrook/Jason Jennings
   
4. Josh Johnson
   
5. Miller/Prior/second tier FA

Now, if we swing both of those pitching trades successfully, we have about 13-17 million dollars (which would bring our payroll to about 115-118 million which, although I'm guessing on, seems likely) If, however, we can get only one pitcher out of trades, we should pay for one of the second tier guys to fill out the rotation, which sounds like its going to be around 10 million/year.

Form a league of nations

If Jones is traded in the process of getting westbrook or Jennings (assuming we aren't buying a  free agent pitcher), go pay for JD Drew, who, although often injured, is a left handed bat with OBP skills, which is exactly what we need. Signing Drew after trading Jones will only cause a net salary increase around  9-10 million, which should theoretically leave the Cubs with about 5 to 7 million dollars to improve the bench.

Finally, if we trade for both pitchers, and Jones is not moved, we should trade Izturis (saving about 4.5 million) and then go pay for Lugo. Then, we should use all of the remaining money on improving the bench as much as possible.

I realize this has all been a bit convoluted, so let me summarize: the best case scenario in my plan involves trading for Johnson and Westbrook/Jennings, and then (depending on whether Jones is traded or not) going to get either Lugo or Drew with the remaining money, and then improving the bench.

I feel very strongly that Johnson is going to be a    top notch pitcher, and he is only 22ish. Trading for Johnson might end up being the best move Hendry (prospectively) makes all offseason, because he has a chance to be good for several years.

I've been away from this site lately, so I don't really know if this thread has already been done, but who are your award winners (cy young, mvp, comeback player of the year, rolaids relief, ROY)?

I'll start:

AL MVP: Justin Morneau
NL MVP: Pujols (I'm being honest here, and yes, Howard had a better season, but the Cards are a playoff team, and wouldn't be much better than the Cubs without him. He truly is the most valuable.)

Al Cy young: Cy Santana
NL Cy young: My extreme hate for Oswalt might be clouding my vision, so I'll say Webb since he pitched many more innings, but it will probably be Carpenter.

AL ROY: Liriano
NL ROY: Uggla

AL Comeback POY: Frank Thomas
NL CPOY: Nomar

Rolaids relief AL: Nathan with Papelbon a close second (Papelbon should also get strong ROY consideration, but he's blown 6 saves, which is almost ridiculous for a guy with an ERA under one)

Rolaids relief NL: Give it to Hoffman for setting the record while recording yet another effective year at Maddux-esque velocities.

NL least valuable player: Cedeno

I don't feel like going over silver sluggers or gold gloves, but if you want to then go for it. I will say that Z definitely wins the silver slugger (which he locked up the day he broke the bat over his thigh).

As the season winds down, Dusty is running out of opportunities to zing us fans. With Bynum and Mabry relegated to little more than pinch hitting for various reasons, it has become increasingly hard to infuriate us. Les Walrond to the rescue! Rather than starting a young rookie, Ryu, with a legitimate future in baseball, we have a career minor leaguer, with no other purpose than mop-up work, apparently pitching in today's veritable forfeit.

Clearly, Dusty has taken up the vindictive, lame-duck role with vigor, and with this pocket-veto, he has foolishly and selfishly decided to give an old rookie a pointless chance to start, rather than letting a young rookie get some innings, which would helpfully let us better assess our situation for next year. Ridiculous.

I am aware that there is a Bears blog on SB nation, but I'm not a member, and I figured that since a lot of us here are probably Bears fans, a little discussion wouldn't hurt on the eve of the season.

A few thoughts after watching the preseason games:

-I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Brian Griese starting at some point this season. Grossman has a strong arm, pretty good footwork and presence in the pocket, and scrambles decently, but it seems like he occasionally suffers from inaccuracy at bad times and seems succeptible to getting picked off. Hopefully this rawness is just a sign of his inexperience from the injuries, and he will improve as the season grinds on.

-more thoughts about Grossman: The two weakest parts of his game right now are passing in the red zone (he seems to move the ball down the field well, but has trouble sealing the deal) and long passes (he has a tendency to overthrow these).

-The weakest link on offense is clearly the receiver corps this year. Muhsin Muhammad is overrated, and has a propensity to drop passes. They don't really have a clear second option after Muhammad. Berrian is fast, but injury prone. Gage and Curry are both average. The trib today argued that special teams rookie, Devin Hester might make a solid receiver. I assume the Bears will need to come up with options as the season progresses.

-the weakest link on defense, like last year, is the secondary, although no part of the defense is very weak by any means. This obviously can become a major problem, however, in the cover 2 system. I think the bears defense will be particularly vulnerable when facing a top shelf, very athletic receiver (like last year in the playoffs when Peanut Tillman was completely overmatched and embarrassed by steve smith). The defensive line and linebacker corps should both be very good again. Watching how well Arizona both ran, and passed against us made me a little nervous, though.

-I think we have seen more passes to the tight ends this preseason than in quite a long time (and if I'm not mistaken, Grossman's TD pass last night was to the TE). Hopefully, Clark can become a decent alternate option. The blocking was adequate.

Discuss

The MiLB.com pages have recently changed the individual player stat pages, and they now show useful information like splits. Looking at the splits of Iowa Cubs players, I noticed a fun little nugget of information.

Mike Restovich: vs. LHP: .333/.438/.613

Giving him an eye-popping OPS of 1.051

Then, let's examine Jacque Jones's splits, shall we:

Jacque Jones vs. LHP: .200/.221/.335

Now we all know that Restovich is old, and strikes out a lot. But do any of us think it would actually be possible for him to fall from a 1.051 OPS in Iowa to an OPS lower than Jacque's laughable .556. THAT IS AN OPS DISPARITY OF .500. What is wrong with our organization that they never fail to kiss veteran ass. The only reason that JJ isn't platooning with Restovich is that Hendry and his cronies care more about making their horrible veterans happy over winning ballgames. Assuming there is absolutely no way that the people in charge aren't kept fully abreast of minor league stats, this is a huge slap in the face to Cubs fans, and it shows plainly how much they care more about appeasing their diva players than the millions of loyal fans paying their salaries.

I saw that Al had an interview with Hendry last week. I would suggest asking him about this if you ever get a chance to interview him again, and see if you can ask him about why he hires players that can't throw the ball 10 feet without hitting the ground and are worthless offensively against LHP and still prefers sucking up to these players than working to make the team better (yes, I know you can't ask that, but that is the biggest question on my mind right now).

unbelievable

It is time, once again, to note, reluctantly, that evidence seems to show that Dusty plays favorites based on race. I really hate to make these judgments, but I have no other explanation.

How is Novoa any different than Aardsma? How are Cedeno and Bynum BETTER than Theriot? I like Pagan a lot, but why does he get so much playing time when Murton is both clearly the better offensive force, and more effective when he plays regularly? And why does Pagan seemingly never pinch hit for Jacque, who can't hit lefties? (and when I say can't hit lefties, I mean can't even put the ball in play frequently...if there is a man on third with less than two outs and Jacque is up against a lefty, that guy on third can pull up a chair and have a front row seat to futility--he isn't going anywhere)

Now I really don't think that Dusty chooses these players because he hates white people, or anything extreme like that. But I DO think that he plays favorites. He uses the players that he likes far more often, and totally disregards making the moves that are best for the team. My theory is that he just relates to the non-white players more...there is nothing wrong with this. Integration is nice, but it is no secret that people still seem to find a greater comfort level with people most like themselves. But it is absolutely inexcusable that Dusty seemingly disregards the wellbeing of the team for his personal preferences. How can one possibly defend  using Cedeno as A STARTER, when his OPS is lower than a good slg%, and his OBP is bad even for a BA. How can one possibly defend using Roberto Novoa in close games AT ALL, when he blows games like it is his job. How can he possibly defend using Bynum when.....well, just watch him play....he's...not...good. And if anyone out there is skeptical that a coach would play favorites even if it was detrimental to the team, I had a coach like this back in high school who was well known for giving the guys he loved as much leeway as they needed and more, and benching the guys (regardless of skill unless they were a superstar) if they weren't one of his "boys"...there are a lot of coaches like this, I imagine.

The alternative is that he is mindbogglingly stupid, because there don't seem to be that many people in cubs fandom that don't believe that Ronny and Freddy Bynum are completely worthless, and Novoa shouldn't see games where the score is within a grand slam whether up or down, but Dusty either doesn't get it, or doesn't care, or it is a function of both reasons. Either way, he deserves another year here just about as much as Cedeno deserves to be on this major league roster (or any major league roster, for that matter).