SB Nation User Blog: Thelonious

Report: Cubs Interested in Brian Roberts

Thelonious — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:04:44 -0000

News has just leaked from the Cubs front office that the team may be pursuing 30 year old Baltimore second baseman, Brian Roberts. Roberts would bolster a somewhat shaky Chicago middle infield.

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that we're first hearing about this so close to the beginning of spring training. This all seems to have come right out of the blue.

Surely, Roberts's speed and on-base skills would greatly help the cubs, but will he really be that big of an upgrade over DeRosa?

Plus, who knows what kind of packages Andy McPhail will ask for in return? Can we really afford to lose our few quality trading chips? As long as we keep all-star caliber players like Ryan Theriot, and Sam Fuld, I won't get too upset.

This is an interesting development, for sure. I'm at the edge of my seat, impatiently waiting for the next chapter in this sudden, and by all accounts short, saga.

Bozo Murton and his Grand Prize Game

Thelonious — Fri, 11 May 2007 09:50:52 -0000

I'm not going to bother posting anything meaningful about Murton now. My opinion is well known: I'm not a big fan of him or his game, but he's definitely not worthless.

That being said, I feel compelled to post this nice picture that Ryno took of Murton when he didn't have his makeup on, and wasn't wearing his orange wig: in short, this is how Matt looks when he doesn't have his game face on...complements of Ryno from the matt murton weak-ass ground ball fan fest blog....sparkles--LOOK AWAY:

Greatest pitcher of all time passes away

Thelonious — Sat, 10 Feb 2007 13:01:24 -0000

I'm talking about the greatest softball pitcher of all time, Eddie Feigner. I'm going to bed right now, but I figured I'd post a simple diary now, and add later. He was an interesting man with a hell of an arm.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/printedition/cs-0702100183feb10,1,7675792.story?coll= cs-sports-print

I need some bathroom reading material

Thelonious — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 14:56:28 -0000

I figured that you people, if anyone, could recommend some good books regarding baseball for my signature bathroom collection. It doesn't have to be light reading: several years ago, I read most of the Aeneid in there in short intervals. In fact, I'd say that about 90 percent of the productive things that I actually do are accomplished in my throne room with my porcelain pal.

I'm interested in anything baseball: novels, novellas, (auto)biographies, statistical studies, general histories or historical studies of specific eras (the Negro Leagues are particularly fascinating) etc. etc. etc.

cutting the figurative cord: Z or Barrett

Thelonious — Sun, 28 Jan 2007 13:03:56 -0000

The Cubs are going to lose 2 players to free agency next year that will undoubtedly fall under the top 10 most sought after free agents. Carlos Zambrano (he's an easy number 1) and Michael Barrett.

I think the one trait that all of the best GMs have in common is that they know how to selectively cut the cord with some of their better/more popular players when the time is right for whatever reason. Sometimes their reasoning is because that player is overvalued on the current market, and can net the team an asymmetric benefit in the team's favor through a trade. Sometimes their reasoning is more simple: the team cannot afford all of their veterans (talented vets are never cost effective), and therefore must selectively keep those players that afford the team the highest marginal utility.

Regardless of the reason (and there are many), trading talented veterans can often be a shrewd and bold move by a GM if executed correctly. Many questioned Billy Beane after he traded Mulder and Hudson before the 2005 season. While these trades didn't net the Athletics massive dividends, they did come away with Danny Haren, and saved millions of dollars in the end on two pitchers that have largely spent their time since either injured or ineffective.

This brings me to my point: the cubs simply cannot afford BOTH Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett, and will need to part with at least one of them. The Cubs have dug themselves a hole with massive, backloaded contracts, and just can't keep piling on additional multimillion dollar pacts unless they want to spend 2010 playing with a 5 man team like Eddie Feigner and his four man King's court.

Zambrano presents an exceedingly complicated dilemma for Jim Hendry, and I don't pretend to know the answer. I have opinions (that seem to change regularly on this issue), but I could easily be wrong. On one hand, he is a fantastic young pitcher, and is only 25; on the other hand, he could net us some serious prospects in a trade (probably two potentially impact players plus a third solid player) and I really don't like EVER giving pitchers contracts longer than a standard presidential term, and certainly not the length of a two-termer. So I really don't know about Z. I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be incredibly sad to see him leave regardless (shrewd, bold GMs are great because they don't care about upsetting fans when they know the move is best for the team): he's my favorite Cub right now. Hendry isn't exactly the boldest GM, so I will be somewhat surprised to see Z traded during the season, but that might end up being the smartest possible move when all is said and done. At this point, no one knows, and (to quote Mr. Tweek), Z really has Hendry's balls in a juicer right now. I wouldn't want to be the guy who makes that decision.

I think the course of action concerning Barrett is much clearer. I've made my opinion known in the past that although it's great to get production out of a traditionally weak offensive position like catcher, I really don't like relying on the catcher for offense when there are other places on the field that can potentially be improved offensively (second base and shortstop to name 2). Catchers don't see nearly as many PAs over a season as other position players, and, due to the nature of the position, tend to break down and produce less down the stretch and (potentially) into the postseason. Add this to the fact that Barrett is a below average defender at one of the few positions where defense is at least nearly as important as offensive production (although many consider in more important).

This leads me to believe that Michael Barrett can safely be expended in a trade. He IS overvalued in many circles (especially among those that covet offensive production from their catcher, and those that like him for his "old-school", "hard-nosed", "scrappy", "insert baseball cliche here" playing style). Obviously, he won't bring close to the bounty of talent that trading Z would potentially bring, but near the trade deadline, he's worth at least a couple solid prospects. He'd potentially be worth an impact prospect or two if we weren't trading him as a rental player, but that is still probably our best bet right now.

If the Cubs DO end up trading Zambrano instead, I think it becomes less necessary to let Barrett go, but I really do not see the Cubs keeping them both. We've seen the Cubs spend money, but now comes the true test: we need to see Hendry grow some balls and finally make some bold trades. Maybe he could borrow KW's balls for a while, as I do believe his are enormous.

John Sickels rates the top cub prospects. You don't look busy. Why don't you too?

Thelonious — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 22:16:30 -0000

over at minorleagueball, sickels is scheduled to come out with the top 20 list of cubs prospects some time today, and I'm giddy in anticipation. Although this may be the cherry on top of the diary pollution landfill, I figured I would rank my top 5, and open the floor for either your version of the top 5, or more pirate jokes.

The way I see it:

Don Veal
Felix Pie
Sean Gallagharrrgh (still thinking about pirates)
Mark Pawelek (look for a breakout 07)
Eric Patterson (not a huge fan, but he is the relatively close to the majors)

Honorable mentions: Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Colvin, Scott Moore, Mitch Atkins

That is a sorry list after the first few. There ARE guys deeper in the system that may one day make it (chris Huesby comes to mind and possibly Jose Ceda), but they are too far away right now to list above.

Also, we lost lincoln Holdzkom in the rule V draft, and I would really like to get him back, because he apparently throws a mid 90s fastball with good sink, and never gives up homers (caveat: he's had arm problems). I am annoyed that the cubs protected rocky cherry, rather than holdzkom: typical stupid cub move. Update [2006-12-14 19:5:16 by Thelonious Drunk]: The rankings are officially up. Sickels had the exact same players in his top 5 as me, although some have switched places. http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Prior, Wood, or Miller: Which glass pitcher will shatter

Thelonious — Wed, 13 Dec 2006 10:15:24 -0000

You don't have the be the prognosticator to...er....prognosticate. Rather than suffering another year of will they or won't they (break down like a 1982 Yugo), why don't we embrace our pitchers' fragileness.

I present to you all a chance to forecast which pitcher will break down first. Al will generously provide expensive prizes to the winners.

Feel free to comment on your reasoning below; you can also comment on which of these pitchers will actually be productive next year.

Poll

Which Pitcher will be the first to break out a fresh shipment of towels?

Mark "The Prodigal Son" Prior

100 votes

Wade "Sugar Plum Fairy" Miller

19 votes

Kerry "Splintered" Wood

24 votes

143 votes | Poll has closed

Saturday Rumor Central Diary + Marcus Giles and more

Thelonious — Sat, 09 Dec 2006 09:18:07 -0000

I liked Tomas's idea to make a diary each day to group every rumor under one roof, so I figured I'd make today's. I also figured I'd leave you with a few things to talk about...

There is some speculation that Marcus Giles will be non-tendered by the Braves due to tepid trade interest from other teams (and the Braves really want/need to dump salary). You can read about that here (in the middle of the article):

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/printedition/2006/12/08/sptbraves1208a.html

IMO, I would shoot for Giles even if they don't non-tender him (go for a trade). I know we just picked up DeRosa, but Giles is really a significant upgrade (3 years younger, career OPS about 80 points higher), and given this year's market, keeping DeRosa as a utility man isn't THAT ridiculous (we can always trade him near the trade deadline when teams are desperate if we want to dump salary). Even in a worst case scenario if Giles has a down year like last year, or if he gets injured, we still have a highly competent backup to take his place. To me, this is a no-brainer, but knowing the Cubs, I don't see them acting on this. I'm actually kinda surprised that no team is interested enough in Giles to trade for him...unless there is something I don't know about him, of course...he seems like a pretty solid option at second base to me.

In other news...

If the reports are true, and the Cubs actually do pick up Jason Marquis, I might have to burn Jim Hendry in Effigy and turn in my cub fan membership card. This guy is league average AT BEST, and wasn't anywhere close to league average last season. Paying more than 9 million per year (as reports have said) to this little league caliber pitcher is completely asinine. I would be happier if they just saved their money, and started ANY of the young guys we had pitching last year, sans Les Walrond (although I believe he left) than sign Marquis. Hell, I would rather we have Biz Markie pitch than Jason Marquis.

If Jim is dumb enough to pay 9 million a year for Marquis, why doesn't he just save that, and open his purse (its not a purse, its a european carry-all!) and blow 17-18 million per year on a number 2/3 like Zito (of whom I am not a big fan, but he is lightyears ahead of Marquis, talentwise). Even if Zito decides he doesn't want to play in Chicago, we'd still save the 9 million per year on a Marquis contract, and we could just have Marshall/Guzman/Ryu/Mateo/anyone but Marquis pitch.

Soriano's contract might be an albatross in 5 or 6 years, but its truly rare when you can have an instant albatross--unfortunately, in contract terms, Marquis's albatross of a contract won't get up and fly away (it will be more like a fat penguin with two broken legs and a learning disability).

Anyway, my rant is over. Discuss, and post saturday's rumors here.

Padilla reaches preliminary agreement with rangers

Thelonious — Tue, 05 Dec 2006 04:09:16 -0000

This might not necesitate a diary, I don't really care. To quote cartman, "whateva. I do what I want"

For those that were earlier advocating we sign Padilla, apparently the Rangers ARE going to retain him, so apparently the concerns about his arm falling off aren't as major as some thought (or the rangers are stupid).

The preliminary deal is for 3/34 million. I guess this DOES affect us, in that it sets the market for the second tier pitchers. This might have bearing on what we end up paying Lilly if/when we sign him, which now seems likely, although this affect might not be too pronounced, since it sounds like the two camps have already been in extensive talks. I do think this sets the framework for a Meche deal, although I think he will probably get 4 years.

Here's the link to ESPN's winter meeting coverage:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2685697

Would the Red Sox trade Lester?

Thelonious — Sun, 03 Dec 2006 23:41:41 -0000

This deal would be predicated on two things:

the red sox actually sign Matsuzaka
The Cubs pick up Lugo (yes, I know Mike, call you old fashioned, but you don't like wifebeaters on the Cubs)

If the Red Sox sign Matsuzaka, they will have 7 starting pitchers (although one is injured):
Schilling
Papelbon
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Wakefield
Lester
Clement - injured

Even with Clement hurt, that still leaves them with 6 healthy pitchers. Since they have a surplus, why not try to swing a trade:

They have two major needs:

a closer
a starting shortstop

If the Cubs pick up Lugo, we can fill those two needs with Dempster/Eyre/Howry and Izturis. If the Red Sox need the deal to be sweetened further, we can send Scott Moore: We have our third basemen locked up for several years now, blocking Moore, and the Red Sox would definitely be happy to have a young (just turned 23 last month) power hitting 3B prospect who fits into their mold by posting solid OBP numbers (and he's a lefty), and Lowell is getting into his mid-30s.

I don't know why I haven't heard more talk about the red sox trading a starter. If they do sign Matsuzaka, it seems highly unlikely that they would actually go into the season with 7 starters when they have other needs. [editor's note, by Thelonious Drunk] I checked, and apparently he IS still fighting cancer. So clearly, I now look like a dumbass for making this suggestion. However, I do think that the Crisp trade proposal IS a good idea.