Given some of the comments on this board, I decided to check how successful the Bills have been in drafting over the last 5 years.

I decided to use the Pro Bowl as a 'success' indicator, as it is readily available. But it comes with many problems, not the least of which is that the Pro Bowl can be a bad indicator of success, especially success within a team (and doubly overlooked for success at a important yet overlooked position like O Line).

In any case, here are the results:

The one Bills selection was Marshawn Lynch, who went to the Pro Bowl in 08 as an alternate after the picked player didnt go.

For those who are interested, here is a summary of Edwards' injuries in college:

2003 - Started 4 games, got knocked out of 2 games and was out due to injury for 4 additional games.

2004 - Started 9 games, got knocked out of 2 of those and was out due to injury in 2 more.

2005 - Started 11 games, knocked out of 4.

2006 - Started 7, knocked out of 1 of those. Out for 5 additional games.

In summary:

In college, Edwards started 31 games. He was knocked out of 7 of those games (plus 1 knockout when he didn’t start). In addition, he was out of 11 games with injury.

In percentage terms, he was knocked out of around 20-25% of games he started, and missed an additional 25% of the games he might have started if he hadn’t been injured.

In total, somewhere around 50% of the games in his college career he should have started Edwards missed playtime due to injury.

Against arch rival Cal in his college career, Edwards was unable to play even 1 full game due to injuries in his 4 years. He didn’t play at all due to injury twice, and got knocked out of the other 2 games. His total playtime in all 4 games/16 quarters while he was there was only a little more then 2 quarters.

A list of the injuries Edwards has suffered since High School that forced him to miss serious playtime. Each is a different injury.

Concussion and Shoulder Sprain - 2003, knocked out of 1 game and missed 3+ more games.
Thigh Bruise - 2003, knocked out of 1 game and missed 1 more.
Bruised left shoulder and bruised left hand - 2004, knocked out of game in 1st Q.
Sprained left shoulder - 2004, knocked out of game at half time, missed 2 more.
Injured right hand - 2005, knocked out at start of game.
Injured thumb - 2005, knocked out in 3rd quarter.
Neck injury - 2005, knocked out in 3rd quarter.
Re-aggravated injury in throwing arm - 2005, knocked out in 3rd quarter.
Broken foot - 2006, Knocked out of game in first series, missed 5 more games.
Sprained right wrist - 2007, knocked out of game in 3rd quarter, missed 2-4 more games.
Thigh bruise - 2008, missed preseason game.
Concussion - 2008, knocked out of game in 1st series, would have missed following week game but was a bye week.
Groin - 2008, knocked out of game at halftime, missed 2 more games.

Each of these injuries either prevented Edwards from finishing a game, or kept him out of the game entirely. I didn’t count injuries like the shoulder problem that come in the off-season and seem to be bothering him now.

Following some of the posts on this board, I decided to look in detail at how the health of the QB impacted a teams ability to make the playoffs.

First I looked at all 48 teams that have made the playoffs in the last 4 years, and checked how many starts they had by a single QB in their run to the playoffs. Of those 48 teams, 3 had QB changes because they benched their starter for their backup due to performance (as opposed to injury). I excluded those 3.

- Of the remaining 45, 37 had the same QB start 15 or 16 regular season games. 82% of the teams that made the playoffs from 2005-2008 had a QB that managed to stay in the lineup. The vast majority of these had their QBs start every game (33 of the 37).

- The flip side of that, there were only 8 teams in those 4 years that managed to make the playoffs while their QB was unable to start 2 or more games in the regular season. 18% of all the playoff teams.

- Of the 16 teams that reached the conference championship game (for 2008 I used the top 4 seeds) in those 4 years, 15 had QBs that had started all 16 regular season games.

I also looked at all the teams (playoffs and non-playoff bound) for one year, 2008.

- There were 16 teams whose QB started all 16 games. 10 of those 16 teams made the playoffs, or 63%.

- There were 4 teams whose QB started 15 or more games. 1 of those teams made the playoffs, or 25%.

- There were 9 teams whose QB missed 2 or more games due to injury. None of those teams made the playoffs, or 0%.

(There were also 3 teams that changed their QB for performance reasons).

This isn’t an exact science. Its sometimes a bit difficult to tell whether someone was benched because they were gimpy or because they were playing badly. And I didn’t count getting knocked out of games at all, just whether they were able to start or not. That would be pretty interesting info as well, but its pretty difficult to get.

But the overall message was pretty clear. Most of the teams that are in the playoffs, haven’t had their QB out with an injury during the regular season. And those teams where the QBs miss multiple games a season rarely make the playoffs.

I have never drunk the Kool Aid. And this game is why.

We hear here about how Trent is the ‘Heart and Soul of the offense’. We hear about how ‘JP played badly and helped lose the Arizona game’.

Not that what people say on this board matters. But by far the worst thing I have ever heard said by a member of the Bills in 30 years was Donte Whitner and his ‘Well <token acknowledgment of responsibility>, it wasn’t really the defenses fault, giving up 41 points, we might have won at Arizona if Trent was playing’.

We have far far worse problems on this team then the difference between Trent and JP, which is relatively minor.

- Our defense is nowhere near as good as we thought it would be, at least against real teams.

- Our pass rush is one of the worst per $ in NFL history

- Our O-line is terrible in run blocking, and bad striving to be mediocre in pass rush.

- No legitimate #2 WR

- No TE

It might have been tough to predict Peters moronic holdout and disintegration, or McGees injury. (Although we did draft 2 CBs in the first 4 rounds, in addition to our starting 2 CBs returning.)

But our ridiculous problems at DE are well known, as is our multi year lack of #2 WR. And our lack of TE, given Edwards obvious love for TEs, is disgraceful. 

We have played very weak teams this year. Has anyone in the history of the NFL ever played 2 teams in 5 weeks which then had their coaches fired? Another 2 teams with 3+ injured starters at a single position? Not to mention that we have yet to beat a single team with a winning record.

People have been way, way too blinded by our ‘winning’ record.

People have been way, way too blinded by Trent wins/JP loses.

This team has many many problems. Not the least of which is a defensive captain giving up 41 points and blaming someone not on the field as they were scored.

The fascination with the QB is completely misplaced. There are a half dozen other positions which are far bigger problems.

Im curious what your guys detailed impression of the Jets secondary is.

I dont get a chance to watch alot of Jets games, but a couple of friends of mine talk up the Jets secondary all the time about how great it is. I confess I couldnt pick a Jets DB out of a line up, but I do note that they are ranked in the bottom half in the NFL against the pass, and this having played Miami and Cassel NE.

Is this a case that your secondary is young and still developing, but not there yet? Or that Pennington and Cassel just performed very well against you? Or some other reason?

How do you think you will match up against the Chargers, especially on the road on the West Coast.

Im not trying to start an argument here, I am genuinely curious. My friends who love the Jets secondary are pretty smart about football. But with my limited knowledge I dont see it, so I was hoping to find out more.

Thanks.

FOCUS: BILLS STAR UNDER INVESTIGATION
Battle lines are drawn on Lynch
Truth is goal as officer goes to stadium in bid to end players’ silence about facts of hit-run
By Dan Herbeck and Gene Warner
Updated: 06/12/08 6:42 AM

James P. McCoy/Buffalo News
3:30 a. m. hit-and-run A vehicle owned by Bills running back Marshawn Lynch, above, struck a woman crossing Delaware Avenue on May 31 and left the scene. Authorities are investigating. More Photos

A nasty confrontation is shaping up at Ralph Wilson Stadium today, but it won’t be the kind of clash that football fans might expect.

Lining up on one side are star running back Marshawn Lynch and at least three other Buffalo Bills players who are believed to have information about the hit-and-run accident involving Lynch’s sport utility vehicle and a pedestrian in the city’s Chippewa Entertainment District.

On the other side are investigators for the Buffalo police and Erie County District Attorney Frank J. Clark, who are frustrated over their dealings with the Bills players.

Police say they have received no cooperation from Lynch and little cooperation from his teammates in their probe of the accident that injured a 27-year-old Ontario woman who was struck while crossing the street at West Chippewa Street and Delaware Avenue on May 31.

Buffalo Police Officer Allan A. Kasprzak will go to the stadium in Orchard Park this afternoon and try to question three or more Bills players about the night of the accident, authorities said.

“I expect [Bills players] to be cooperative and truthful,” Clark said. “If I get any indication that they are anything less than cooperative and truthful, I will go to the grand jury, which will compel them to testify.”

That could cause trouble — not only for Lynch, but for any other Bills player who is less than truthful.

“If a witness lies to a police officer, that’s one thing. If they lie to a grand jury, that’s a criminal offense,” said one official close to the case. “If the witnesses in this case don’t start to cooperate, the [grand jury] subpoenas are coming out.”

Police said a grand jury probe would turn what is normally a routine police matter into a confrontational, high-profile inquiry that could last for weeks, even months.

Prosecutors can compel a person to testify before a grand jury, but only if they give the person immunity from prosecution for the crime in question.

Even if a person is given immunity from prosecution, that person can still be charged with perjury for any lie told to the grand jury, prosecutors said.

Kasprzak, the hit-and-run accident investigator for the Buffalo police, was not allowed by his department to comment. But informed sources said the officer called both the Bills organization and the National Football League security office earlier this week, complaining about alleged “stonewalling” by some of the players.

As of late Wednesday, no charges had been filed in the case, and Lynch, 22, one of the NFL’s top rookies last season, still had not spoken to police.

Lynch’s attorney, Michael P. Caffery, took issue with the idea that he and his client haven’t cooperated with authorities.

“I’ve had two conferences with the district attorney’s office and several phone calls with the Buffalo police,” Caffery said. “As far as I’m concerned, we’ve cooperated.”

Lynch participated in Wednesday’s minicamp practice at the stadium but said “no comment” when approached by reporters afterward.

How would the Bills organization react to investigators trying to interview other players?

“We have cooperated fully with authorities and will continue to cooperate, if asked,” said Scott A. Berchtold, the Bills’ vice president for communications.

Problems with police

Police told The Buffalo News that Lynch has no arrest record in New York State and has a clean driving record in the state.

But some police officers in Buffalo and Hamburg are not surprised to hear that Lynch is having legal difficulties.

Lynch was tossed out of two Chippewa Street bars in recent months because he brought in his own bottle of liquor, which is illegal under state alcohol laws, according to three law enforcement officials.

“[Buffalo police] have been told by bar owners that he’ll walk in, order a glass of pop and pour his own liquor into it,” one officer said. “He was told that you can’t do that, and it doesn’t matter if you’re Marshawn Lynch.”

Law enforcement officials in the Southtowns said Lynch attended a meeting several months ago with three high-ranking members of the Town of Hamburg police. At least one member of Lynch’s family and a Bills security official also attended.

The meeting was arranged after Lynch complained that police were being tough on him and his family, said a police official who works closely with that department.

“From what I understand, it was a case of ‘Let’s clear the air here,’ ” the source said. “They thought the police were picking on them.”

Town police impounded a vehicle that Lynch had been using and lent to a relative. Authorities said the vehicle was impounded after that relative was arrested for violating a vehicle and traffic law.

After the impoundment, Lynch went to Police Headquarters to reclaim the vehicle, but police wouldn’t give it to him, because it actually belonged to a local car dealer.

Lynch had a disagreement with some police personnel over the release of the vehicle, apparently prompting the clear-the-air meeting, sources said.

In addition, Orchard Park police investigated one minor incident, last Dec. 13, near the end of the Bills’ season. A vehicle apparently driven by Lynch struck a pole outside Ralph Wilson Stadium. Police responded, but no charges were filed, according to Orchard Park police records.

Town of Hamburg police have dealt with Lynch and his family on mostly minor matters, usually involving vehicle and traffic laws.

That is why one law enforcement official was not surprised to hear about the latest incident involving Lynch’s vehicle.

“God, no, I wasn’t surprised at all,” the source said. “It follows a pattern. It’s the kind of stuff he’s been doing. He’s just so cavalier about everything. That was always my impression.”

‘Sense of frustration’

These are some of the factors that police are evaluating as they continue to investigate Lynch and the hit-and-run on Chippewa:

Kelly Shpeley, 27, of Milton, Ont., was crossing Delaware toward the Spot Coffee shop when Lynch’s Porsche SUV struck her. The vehicle had been parked on Chippewa, facing west.

The victim was wearing dark clothing, officers said. A hard rain was falling, and road conditions were slippery. Police said the woman had the right of way.

“As [Shpeley] crossed the road, another woman was walking in front of her. The woman in front of Shpeley was kind of dancing and singing in the street . . . like ‘Singin’ in the Rain.’ That could have distracted whoever was driving Marshawn’s car,” a law enforcement official said.

Lynch’s vehicle — moving quickly but apparently below the speed limit — turned left onto Delaware and struck Shpeley, the official said.

“The driver never stopped, just kept moving south on Delaware,” the official said. “It could very well be that the driver never saw [Shpeley] and didn’t know he hit her.”

Shpeley suffered two large bruises near the hip and was treated in Buffalo General Hospital, where she received seven stitches.

After the accident, police impounded Lynch’s SUV, which they found parked outside the football star’s $560,000 home in the Town of Hamburg. Officers said no one answered the door of the house when they tried to speak with Lynch.

Authorities said investigators from three Buffalo police units — Kasprzak’s unit, the Central District detectives and the General Investigations Unit — are now working on the case. Detectives have been in Lynch’s neighborhood, questioning neighbors, and in the Chippewa district, questioning workers and patrons.

Clark has said his office is considering a misdemeanor charge of leaving the scene of an injury accident.

Buffalo police said they would like to quickly resolve the case, which was the 893rd hit-and- run report filed in the city this year. Most such cases involve property damage only.

“There is a sense of frustration,” Buffalo police spokesman Michael J. DeGeorge said.

“I think the department would have liked to have seen this resolved in a day or two. These incidents are often resolved very quickly, but if people will not cooperate, that is different.”

I looked at how well Lynch peformed, depending on who the QB was. Here is what I found:

Lynch with JP under center - 4.3 Yards per Carry.
Lynch with TE under center - 3.8 Yards per Carry.

This seemed pretty significant to me. Point 5 yards is a big difference. Especially if our offensive priority is running the ball.

Not trying to do the JP TE thing. But if people dont respect TE's long ball (whether because he cant or wont throw it), it definitely allows them to crowd the line of scrimmage.

There is a fantastic article on Comp Picks by someone who appears to have worked out something close to the NFL formula.

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=208336&postdays=0&postorder=asc&st art=0

Its a long article, but well worth the read. He goes into great detail with exactly how (he thinks) the comp picks formula works. He has had a tremendous success rate in the past.

Or you can skip to the end. He has Buffalo down for a 4th and a 7th.