Max Scherzer commented on his successful outing against Durham the other night. (Thanks to BP.com's Mark Normandin for his report.)

For me, it's a matter of shortening my arm action... I knew something was off. Nothing seemed right. I watched tape, watched tape, watched tape, and finally saw the image of my arm lengthening out... 

You could tell by the way hitters were swinging at my pitches. Last year my elevated fastball had enough life on it that I could get swings and misses. This year I haven't been quite able to do that.

This is great news and a positive sign that the mechanical flaws were addressed and fixed.  Hope to see Max back in the bigs quickly now!

Decided it was time that BYB'ers get the opportunity to openly grumble about the in-game goings-on of the annoying Minnesota Twins.  So, in the same stylings of our own Game Threads, feel free to hate on, spit on, groan about and otherwise root against the Twins.

What prompted this is the four-run third inning against the Indians, which was brought on by a single by Morneau, a slap through the gap between 1st and 2nd by Cuddyer, an error on an easy DP that loaded the bases, a walk to score a run, a wild pitch to score two more, and a sac fly to score a fourth.  Classic Twins crapball. And Punto wasn't even involved.

While many are looking at the impact of Justin Verlander's new 5-year, $80 MM deal on the arbitration case of Tim Lincecum, it seems reasonable to attempt to view this from the other direction as well.  Consider the possibility that Lincecum receives the $13MM record-high arbitration amount he is seeking.  Granted, Lincecum has status as a 2-time Cy Young winner with an ERA far lower than Verlander (non-adjusted, just using basic stats here).   Yet, the threat to the Tigers existed that the result of Lincecum's arbitration hearing could have driven up the price for Verlander even higher than the average $16MM/year that was agreed to.  Note again, that the way contracts of this type are back-loaded the current year salary hit may yet be less than Lincecum's asking price in arbitration.  It also likely exceeds the Giants' offer price of $8MM, making the result of that negotiation and possible hearing all the more relevant to placing a value on Verlander. 

The Tigers may have gotten off easy with this one, because if Tim Lincecum gets his $13MM in arbitration before his long term deal in the next year or two, who knows what his market value could have driven Verlander's up to if the Tigers had waited to get this done. 

Hypothetically, as a result of the price tag being too high for the Tigers to re-sign Verlander in a year, just imagine how angry the fan base would be if the Giants, Tigers and Red Sox pulled off a deal like the one that the Phils, Mariners and Blue Jays just did.  In that hypothetical case, sadly, the Tigers would be the ones getting the prospects in return, and the Giants get a Verlander to replace Lincecum who would go to the Sox.  We should be grateful for the fact that this deal is being done, and Verlander will be here for a long time to anchor this rotation. 

It may be difficult and painful to extract from our collective memories, especially with all that has happened this offseason to the roster, but there are some issues of major importance that occurred on The Day the Offseason Really Started.  That day was October 2, 2009.  Miguel Cabrera, knowingly or not, sold out the Tigers' chance at the postseason, disrupted what had been thought of as a solid clubhouse chemistry, and defamed the concept of 'team' right before the biggest week for this baseball club last year. 

It is plausible that this singular event trapped the Tigers in a way.  Without a playoff appearance, they lose playoff revenue.  Without playoff revenue, but being that close to a playoff appearance, they are forced into a mode of improving the club while reducing salary.  In order to balance those two extremely delicate constraints, they make moves to attempt to improve (acquiring high quality available pitching talent) while reducing salary in a productive way (skimming high-dollar proven leadership through trade and free agency while trusting unproven youth to key positions).

However, the move they could not make was to trade the one player whose very presence on the roster paradoxically throws the entire offseason formula out of balance.  Miguel Cabrera is paid the team's highest salary.  He carries the strongest and most productive bat in the lineup.  His personal demons directly contaminate the winning formula needed for postseason glory.  And as a result, the clubhouse is left without a leader who takes the field in every one of the 162 games they will play.  "Curtis Granderson: Detroit Tiger" may just be a casualty of Miguel Cabrera's carelessness.  Justin Verlander will need to be ace stud pitcher 35 games this year, and ace stud cheerleader for the other 127.  Maybe this is the value of a Jose Valverde - an excitable clubhouse leader who the players can get behind.  Whoever it is, the team needs to rally around one of their own. 

Because of the events of October 2, 2009, and until it's proven otherwise, Miguel Cabrera is not truly one of their own.  He sold the team out in its time to shine, leaving only a shadow of what could have been.  The real question for 2010 is not "who will step in for Curtis Granderson on the field?"  The question is whether Cabrera is willing to be a member of this team, or a highly paid pariah that forces Justin Verlander to think twice about what team he is willing to commit to once he has that choice.

As we know now, the combination of Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer as the Tigers' top three starters is fairly well understood.  So who does Jimmy Leyland trust to follow up in the two games behind this living, breathing 3 game winning streak?  MLB.com depth chart shows Bonderman and Galarraga as the 4 and 5 starters now. 

But the guy I'd like to see the Tigers try out in the rotation (other than Casey Crosby) is Phil Coke.  He was a starter in the minors, gained confidence as a reliever with the Yankees, and was really a very good reliable pitcher through their title run.  This change of scenery, plus the Tigers desperate need for a lefty starter, seems like a great fit for Coke, who is just entering his prime. 

Here is an excerpt that describes Coke from the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's perspective:

Although his last appearance of the season was a disaster, Phil Coke was pretty good for most of 2009. As a lefty-reliever, his primary job is to get left-handed hitters out. That's something he's done 77.9% of the time in his major league career, which is the good news. The bad news is he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and allowed 10 HRs in 60 innings. The major difference with Coke pitching to righties versus lefties is his BB rate. RHB have hit .202 against him and have slugged .367 against him in his career, good for an ISO(SLG - AVG) of .165. LHB have hit .197 with a .349 SLG, good for an ISO of .152. Coke's walked 16 of the 127 RHB he's faced, compared to 6 of the 163 LHB he's faced.

As an extreme fly ball pitcher, Coke is in a good park to call home at the CoPa.  Being in the AL Central, there are a number of top-notch left-handed hitters that the Tigers will face, so having a lefty killer facing them three times in each game he starts against them would give them the best chance to win.

If Coke could fill one of those two spots, then what of the other one?  Bonderman would need to find his old self.  Same goes for Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Armando Galarraga, etc.  Right now it seems the best option is indeed to let the chips fall where they may in spring training, just to see who is the most like they once were, and ride that horse until it falls. Then get on the next best one and keep going. 

Or, play the matchups with a 4-man set rotation and a 5th/6th starter used based on matchups.  I wonder whether the Red Sox would be willing to deal Dice-K for two of them?

I can't help but think of this season as a Simpsons' episode, with all the comedy and fanfare to make the work of the team on the field just imperfectly genius enough to make it the best thing going.  Now, at just a few weeks to go, I can hear Bart sitting in the back seat repeating "are we there yet? are we there yet? are we there yet?".  Kudos to Dombrowski and Leyland for sticking with a strong game plan and for taking chances on role players that have made this season great.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Kent Brockman, Bumblebee Man, Lionel Hutz, Troy McClure and Sideshow Mel make a few plate appearances and contribute to victory down the stretch.  LETS GO TIGERS!!  Woo-Hoo!!

Three years ago, John named Robert Manuel (then of the Mets organization) his Starting Pitcher of the Year in the GCL.  Manuel led the league with 8 wins and a 2.06 ERA.  His professional career was getting off to a good start.  Fast forward nearly three years.   Manuel had been dealt to the Reds (for Dave Williams), and is currently the closer at AA Chattanooga.  While 25 year old minor league relievers in AA aren't usually the topic of great prospectdom here, let's not overlook his 2008 stat line in AA only:

4-3, 1.43 ERA, 2 SV, 63.0 IP, 41 H, 14 BB, 78 K, 2 HR allowed

The guy has been promoted two levels this year alone.  He's obviously blossomed after being converted from a starter to a reliever in 2007 while still in the FSL.  Looking over the Reds 40-man roster, it is apparent that there some aging vets that ought to be on the way out after this season.  It seems to me that there is a solid chance that Manuel could make a run as a back of the bullpen anchor in Cincy by 2010 or 2011, even with Dusty running the show. 

What are Reds fans saying (btw, is dougdirt still on here?) about Manuel and do you see promise from him as a top reliever?

Even though the Indians were in town against the Twins and Cliff Lee was pitching, we opted to head to the Lake County Captains game against the West Virginia Power.  Classic Park is just that - a classic park.  Nice field, great sightlines, fun fan interaction without going too overboard - overall a good experience (except possibly for the three knuckleheads who ran in the "Fish Race" obviously wasted since they were late getting the inning started because these clowns were tackling each other in the OF instead of "racing", but I digress...).  Not having any expectations of who to watch for talent, the real show for me tonight was seeing two West Virginia players in action.  Those would be 2B Eric Farris and starting pitcher Daniel Merklinger. 

Farris, a 2007 4th round pick out of Loyola Marymount, batted leadoff.  He started the game with a line drive to left, and in the third inning hit a fly ball double to left.  He scored that inning, and then in the fourth he hit another double, this time toward left center.  Batting right-handed he had a slight pull in his swing but looked to have really good extension and his hips were squaring up well.  He may have just been really far out in front of what he was seeing all night, because in the sixth and eighth he fanned on some breaking pitches, swinging each time.  Again in the ninth he fanned, but this time fouled off a few fastballs down and away before swinging and missing at a high fastball.  He played solid defense, not needing anything spectacular to do the job tonight, but did very cleanly scoop up some hard hit grounders that gave other infielders some trouble tonight.  Of all the players we saw tonight, I was most impressed overall with Eric Farris.

Merklinger is a 2007 6th round pick out of Seton Hall.  He is a lefty, had a pretty good fastball and good movement down and in on righties with what could have been a slider, though I wouldn't expect him to be throwing one in A ball.  In any case, he had very good control, and got guys missing at pitches all night.  He ended with 6 IP4 H 1ER 1 BB 6 K.  Last year in rookie ball he was a reliever, finishing second in K/9 in the Pioneer League (13.17).  Having been converted to a starting pitcher in 2008, his 2008 season ERA is near 6.00.  However, looking at his gamelog shows he's had some ups and downs all year, which I expect would be due to the conversion.  Tonight he definitely had his game going though.

Overall, this wasn't a great game, as the Power dominated the Captains 8-1.  Thankfully, the night was worthwhile because we were getting a glimpse of some good talent in the lower leagues.

One better-than-average month does not a prospect make.  Unless the pitcher in question is a former lights-out can't-miss left-handed super-prospect coming off of major injury and even worse control issues as he settles into his old pitching motion.  I'm going to declare:

Greg Miller should be back on the prospect radar.

Reliever?  Sure, and most pitching prospects aren't.  Pressure situations?  Maybe not, but any time someone trying to get over having the K:BB ratio he has had for 2 years is feeling the pressure with every pitch.  Performance?  Okay, he hasn't quite put the walks completely behind him.  But for a one-month stretch, Greg Miller appears to have finally found a rhythm, and his performance is starting to show increasingly positive results.  Consider since May 10th:  8 appearances, 10 IP, 5 H, 6 BB, 13 K.  That is a 1.10 WHIP, fanning more than a batter per inning, at the Triple-A level in a horrible pitcher's park. 

Does this mean that he should get the Joba treatment from Joe Torre and jump into the saddle in LA?  Heck no.  Is he a better pitcher today than Seth McClung at 24?  In my opinion, yes.  Could the organization groom Miller as the eventual heir to Takashi Saito, or even Jonathan Broxton?  Perhaps.  He's 24, he's got plenty of arm left, and he can strike guys out. 

What role, if any, do you see Greg Miller filling for the Dodgers in the next 3 years?

Traveling in Austin this week, I was able to take in a game at Round Rock where the Express tangled with the Memphis Redbirds.  First of all, I loved the 2007 Express baseball card giveaway, complete with Hunter Pence card (mint condition, not taking it out of the pack I guess).  The park was nice, especially the tribute to the older-style upper deck porch in left.  

On the field, Matt Albers looked tough at times, while Tomo Ohka was unimpressively mixing in a 91 mph fastball with 83 mph crap.  Albers located his off-speed stuff early but couldn't find the strike zone with his 94-mph fastball until the 3rd.  Once he was on, he looked solid.  Rick Ankiel (0-5) started in CF and batted 2nd.    

I was surprised by five really nice performances more than anything though.  Mike McCoy started at SS for Memphis and played some really sharp defense, ran well and had a nice flare to left in the 1st.  Josh Anderson played solidly in CF, but more impressively he really showed great patience and a nice stroke at the plate, fouling off pitches until he found one to hit sharply.  Tagg Bozied (2-4, 2B, 10th HR) hit the ball hard off Albers and played effectively at 1B.  Troy Percival was mixing his 93 mph fastball (nice movement too) with an 83 mph change and a filthy 76 mph curve.  And finally, Mark McLemore (no not THAT one) had some dominating stuff in the 7th for Round Rock.  Looking back at his game log, he fanned 11 against Memphis in 6.0 IP on May 19th.  

Overall, a good time, and I hope worthy of this diary.  

Okay, I didn't realize that Erbe had been getting shelled in the recent games prior to this exhibition outing.  But, in case you hadn't noticed, he pitched 4 IP with 4 H, 0 BB, 0 ER and 6 K in long relief (starting in the 2nd inning) against the Blue Jays.  What to make of this?  Is he on his way up to the big club any time soon?  Or is this a confidence builder for him, and for the organization?  I'm inclined to think it is the latter, but I was hoping for some O's fans that know better to shed some light on this.  

After Mussina and Pavano go to the DL, ESPN's Steve Phillips just reported that Chase Wright will get the call over Hughes because the minor league director indicated that Wright was "better prepared to succeed right now."  

Uh, better prepared than the best pitching prospect in baseball?  Then why IS he the 'best' pitching prospect in baseball?  I understand there are issues with the logistics of bringing Hughes in for three starts then sending him back down, or the problem of using up his options and ruining his psyche or some other excuse.  However, I don't see how the move based on that statement is the correct one.

ESPN "analyst" Eric Young was covering his view of who the ideal OF from his experience was - defensively.  The piece stemmed from Karl Ravech's statement that Tampa Bay has the best OF in the game, if not simply the best young OF.  Eric Young, then, posited the following:

Best LF he's ever seen - Barry Bonds - this was succeeded by shots of Barry throwing out a runner from LF, not hitting a HR.  btw Karl was quick to comment that Bonds, "IN HIS PRIME", was a very good fielder, and oh by the way can hit too.

Best RF he's ever seen - Larry Walker

Best CF he's ever seen - Andruw Jones

Okay, I can MAYBE see Jones as the best CF, but I still disagree that Griffey Jr isn't better in his prie.  Another story entirely with LF and RF.  Walker may have had a pretty good arm, but what makes him any better than Vlad?  I think Ichiro is the best RF that the game has seen since Young has been around.  The best LF - I don't know.  Bonds was OBVIOUSLY a great hitter, but his defense has been good not spectacular.  I don't see where Young gets this.  Honestly I can't finish this thought but I didn't want the rest to go without others picking up from here.  Any thoughts?

Dave Bush gave up 6 ER in the first inning against the Cubs tonight, who were devouring his fastball after it wasn't being set up well by his curve.  He has a really great curveball - WHEN he has command of it.  Usually takes him 20-30 pitches in a game to get that, which hurts his stats overall.  Despite that however, he is a workhorse at the MLB level and at 26 he could still find a way to find command of that curve early.  Since the first he's struck out 7 and given up 2 hits.

The Brewers are showing great patience with that early command issue.  That makes me wonder how they are handling Gallardo with the stuff he has.  Are they helping him develop his command?  Does he need it?  

I also wonder how they see Will Inman, who does have great command, but of pitches that aren't as effective as Bush's good curveball. Does Inman have Bush's ceiling? 

Lastly, what direction do you see the Brewers' pitching staff taking over the next three years? I see a staff of Sheets, Gallardo, Bush, Villanueva and Inman, with Capuano having been dealt at some point to an AL contender.

Looking at John's book entry for Sadler (B- rating), he notes that this is a guy he's been watching for some time.  Looking at his stats, I can see why.  The K/9 and K/BB rates are great, and while he doesn't have an imposing frame he has been closing games at the AA level.  From what I've read elsewhere, he doesn't figure to fit into the Giants' backup plans for when Armando Been-Eatin-ez implodes, with Brian Wilson tabbed as the future closer.  I don't quite see how Wilson's stats project any better than Sadler's.  Has anyone else noticed this?  Steve Kline, Kevin Correia and Vinny Chulk could be options, but I think Sadler should be the next guy there given his raw stuff and ability to make guys miss.  Thoughts?

Two lefties, tall power pitchers, one has already made the majors while the other dominated for Team USA over the summer and is projected as the #1 overall in June.  

Much has been said about Miller to this point, as many called him the best pitcher in the 2006 draft despite being picked 6th overall.  The Tigers are only using him out of the pen now, though he is expected to contribute for the AL defending champs.  

In 2006 Price was only a 2nd-team all-SEC pick at Vanderbilt.  However, he eventually put it all together and has completely dominated ever since he found his rhythm.  This could possibly be a case of a small sample size, though it is growing larger and we'll see more out of him by the time the draft rolls around.  

1. By 2009, which one is more successful in the majors?
2. How many high school phenoms from the same two draft classes are even more successful at the major league level?
   

Jeremy Guthrie was claimed by the Orioles after posting a 6.98 ERA with the Tribe last year.  His minor league stats are much different, though.  Is this the kind of reclamation project that Leo Mazzone is perfect for?  I think this bodes very well for Guthrie's career - not to mention this is his age-27 season.  He could finally break out.

Maybin is supposed to be the next big thing.  How does he compare to Granderson (the most recent 'next big thing')?  And would you rather have Maybin, Granderson or Milledge in your outfield if you were Dave Dombrowski and you knew you could deal young pitching to improve the squad?

I'd say...

Granderson
Milledge
Maybin

I am bowing out of a 10-team A.L.-only and a 10-team N.L.-only league with the same owners in each.  Standard rot-ball scoring and transactions, with a 6-player minor league reserve draft.  The league is one of the oldest around (20th year this year, I think).  I am a newer owner, about 6 years now, but I can't keep up with work, MBA program, kids and three leagues, so I'm cutting down to one league.  I could hardly keep up at all last year.  Any interest in taking on a good team, let me know.  League site is currently run through Statomagic.com, leagues 0005 and 0010.  Thanks.