SB Nation User Blog: TigerFaninDC

most important statistic next year

TigerFaninDC — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 22:00:21 -0000

Walks. Both ways. Tigers' hitters need to walk more, and Tigers' pitchers need to walk less.

Two hitters to watch: Ordonez and Cabrera. If Ordonez reaches 70 walks for the season he'll finish in the top 10 in MVP voting. If Cabrera reaches 80 walks, he'll finish in top 3. Those walk levels will throw both players over .400 OBP and 100 runs plateaus. Guaranteed.

Pitchers to watch? All of them. More obvious choices - Willis, Rodney, Zumaya - but maybe Verlander and Jackson would be best targets. Verlander walked 7% of the batters he faced in '06 and '07; and 10% of the batters in '08. Jackson walked 12% of his batters in '07 and 10% in '08. If Verlander returns to 7% and Jackson knocks a percent or two off of his walk rate? Verlander 20 wins and Jackson 17. (that felt insane just typing it).

Anyone ready to predict 25-man roster?

TigerFaninDC — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 20:59:29 -0000

Assume everyone's healthy and they keep 13 and 12 pitchers.

To get you started:

Laird

Cabrera

Polonco

Everett

Inge

Guillen

Granderson

Ordonez

Sheffield

Verlander

Bonderman

Galaragga

Jackson

Lyon

Rodney

Zumaya

Seay

Seems like 18 locks. How about 3 position players and 1 starting pitcher and 3 relievers?

For position players the bench could include: Treanor/Ryan, Santiago/Holliman, Thames, Larish/Raburn, Clete Thomas?; for pitchers: Willis, Robertson, Minor, Dolsi, Bloom, McBride, Rapada...it gets uglier as you scroll down the 40-man.

Rincon

TigerFaninDC — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:22:03 -0000

Minor league deal aside, have you seen his stats from 2004? No exaggeration, he should have received AL MVP votes. 11.7 K per 9 IP rate, 3 - 1 K to BB rate, 80+ IPs, 1.02 WHIP. Guy was dominant.

Yes, I realize that was 5 years ago and Juan is now a 4.5 K per 9 IP, 2 - 1 K to BB, 50+ IPs and 1.5 WHIP pitcher. Not to mention that every single statistic has become progressively worse every season since '04. He literally projects as 40 IP, 1.7 WHIP, 6.00 ERA and 1-1 K to BB. Ugly - he'll fit right in!

Lyon? Really?

TigerFaninDC — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:06:47 -0000

Whether he has a two-year offer or not, it appears he'll be able to get at least $4million for his services next season from someone. At best (or worst) Tigers would have to offer a vesting 2nd year option probably tied to appearances rather than a metric that actually helps the club, like, I don't know K's. Consider: you or I could appear in 50 games season for Tigers - I mean, Dolsi appeared in 42 last year.

Anyway, I digress - Lyon isn't too expensive or inflexible, he's not good. Season averages - 4.4 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, only a 2 -1 K-BB rate with a 4.5 K per 9 IP rate. And, most of this was in NL?

This scattershod strategy of throwing a bunch of lower paid arms at the spring training wall and see what sticks/comes north is not going to work.

Why not try to sign Kerry Wood?

TigerFaninDC — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:18:01 -0000

I haven't seen any contract speculation on Wood, yet - but I think it safe to assume he's open to a two-year plus option deal (unless you're the Cubs and he'd accept a one year deal!). Assuming he's well south of Krod and Fuentes projected average annual salary range of $10 - $14 million, let's say he'd go for a two year $6 million a year with a $2 million option-year buyout. Why wouldn't the Tigers jump at this especially considering the signing doesn't cost draft picks?

Sure, Wood is an injury risk - but he pitched 65+ innings last year and was on the DL only once and early in season. His peripherals are wonderful - 1.3 K per inning, 4.7 K to BB ratio - only 18 unintentional walks in 66 innings. Simply, the guy throws strikes and misses bats.