SBNation.com User Blog: Tim Huwe

Jenga Nets Cubs RHRP Sanchez

Tim Huwe — Tue, 21 May 2013 20:07:48 -0000

Jenga Nets Cubs RHRP Sanchez

The St. Louis Cardinals tried to sneak hard-throwing reliever Eduardo Sanchez through waivers. The Cubs beat Toronto's Alex Anthopolous to the punch.

Sanchez joins Rafael Dolis as minor league relievers in Iowa on the 40 man roster.

2013 MLB Draft Prep Ponders Kris Bryant

Tim Huwe — Thu, 16 May 2013 20:21:22 -0000

Kris Bryant, the third baseman for the University of San Diego Toreros, is the third possibility for the Cubs selection with the second pick of the first round. At 6-5, 215 pounds, his body type says 'slugger'. He has 30 homers this season, in only the third such season with the new BBCOR bats. (Georgia Southern's Victor Roache took full advantage of a hitter-friendly home field to reach the mark in 2011, the first year with the newer, truer bats.) His 57/37 BB/K ratio is where you would want it. Opinion is mixed if Bryant can last at third base until the majors, though he certainly wouldn't sabotage a minor-league team's chances playing there. At worst, you're looking at a right fielder with willingness to walk, and ability to hit 35 homers, while hitting .250 or .260.

Does that justify the top pick?

In one of the kazillion blogs regarding the Cubs and or the draft, one of the gurus used the 'I know, but I can't say' comment on the Cubs interest in Bryant. In short, the Cubs are doing their homework on all three major candidates for the selection. If one of the pitchers (Stanford's Mark Appel or Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray) suffer a semi-major injury or a noticable velocity drop, Bryant is an option. Or, Team Theo might have been planning to select Bryant the entire time. After all, their line was to take hitting early and pitching later. There is no reason to tip off which name will be called in about three weeks. I would still expect it to be one of the pitchers, but I presume all three have been given complete background checks.

My 'preference' would be the one most likely to provide a 25+ WAR value over a big-league career. Whichever one the best argument could be made for, I'm fine with. Of all the ways to argue 'Best Available Player', that's the one I choose. Ceiling, or best possible result, is fine. However, most players fall far short of said ceiling. Ironically, some players 'exceed their ceiling' though I'd put forth that is just a whiff by the scouting people on assessing a ceiling. Others will opt for the 'best floor', or best worst-case scenario, but that would largely ignore pitchers. Ever.

One thing that should not creep into the discussion is strengths or weaknesses of the parent club. Just because Scott Feldman or Travis Wood are having a hot streak (or are having a cold spell in three weeks' time) should in no way talk a front office into selecting, or avoiding, pitching. All legitimate options are getting the fine-toothed comb treatment. Moreso than in prior management structures, I would guess. The bio-mechanics guys are deciding if any movement can be added to Appel's FB, or if Gray's delivery can be tweaked to make him that little bit better. Or, if Bryant can play third, or right field, with league-average competence. This is a very important pick. The front office will be ready for it.

***

In a curious story, Royals wunderkind prospect Bubba Starling is contemplating LASIK surgery. While it is by no means my original idea, I do hope the functional vision of current and future players is being considered to help improve the system's productivity. In a business where hand-eye coordination is such a key component to success, I hope vision tests are being provided to players considered for the top few rounds. It would be inconvenient to bankroll eye exams for dozens of potential draftees, but I hope something is at least considered for anyone who is drafted, or might be in line for an early selection. I'm not sure of the feasibility of it all, but to be "blindsided" two years later by vision trouble seems to be something that should have been avoidable.

***

Yes, there were games this past week. Most conference tournaments start this week, with the NCAA tourney looming as well. ESPN will be in full college baseball mode, as there is now a market for showing games. Oklahoma and Stanford could both be ''outside looking in' for the field, and that would be fine for me. To be honest, I'm going to be largely in 'wait and see' mode with many of the Cubs' picks. I'd rather edit an article or listen to the Smokies play than over-assess five starting pitching options for the selection at 2.2 (the 41st overall pick). Once drafted, I'll happily go back to review a pitcher's or hitter's recent exploits.

Mark Appel's Stanford squad defeated California 9-8, but Appel fanned 11 and walked only one in his seven-inning stint. He allowed nine hits and five runs (four earned) in just over 100 pitches. For Appel, numbers aren't that important anymore. If he finishes his outing healthy, and makes a few pitches over 100, that's fine. His strikeout numbers were good as well. Appel probably won't have more than two starts left in college.

Jonathan Gray of Oklahoma was less impressive than Appel this past weekend. Similarly, it isn't important. Gray fanned only three in a no-decision against Kansas State; his team lost 6-5 over the weekend. Gray also gave up nine hits and walked one. Both Gray and Appel may be hitting the 'dead arm' period that many pitchers face. Both are in the 100 season innings range, and a bit of mediocrity often happens around then.

Kris Bryant's slash line is .338/.496/.876. In college. With bats modified to play like wood bats.

Poll

With the second pick in the 2013 draft, I want the Cubs to select which player?

Cubs System Sonogram: The Zygote 50 Returns

Tim Huwe — Mon, 20 May 2013 03:44:16 -0000

For those of you new to the Zygote 50, it is my cheeky evaluation of players in the Cubs system. Divided into hitters and pitchers, the hitters are valued on their likelihood to have 3000 career major-league at-bats. Pitchers are evaluated on their likelihood to reach 1000 innings. Relievers are pitchers highly unlikely to reach 1000 innings; instead, relief rankings are based on their likelihood to notch 300 career big-league innings.

Hitters (Eligibility level is less than 50 major-league at-bats)

1. Jorge Soler (High-A Daytona) RF

I buy his glove more than I buy Javier Baez' glove, and Soler seems more willing to make adjustments so far. Very close between the two.

2. Javier Baez (High-A Daytona) SS

Baez has the skill to hit upper-level pitching. He hasn't shown the consistency on either side of the ball yet I would prefer. He is, still, very young.

3. Albert Almora (Mesa) CF

I'm due to see Kane County twice in about ten days. I hope to see him when I go.

4. Logan Watkins (Triple-A Iowa) Utility

Yes, Watkins is a second baseman. I'm calling him a utility guy, as it plays to why he outranks more prospecty types of players.Watkins can fill in at SS, CF, and probably 3B as needed. He's a smart player with solid defensive skills. If he hits, or draws walks, as he has in the minors, he'll get 3000 at-bats in the majors.

5. Dan Vogelbach (Low-A Kane County) 1B

A bit of a dropoff here. Not in ability, but in confidence to reach that 3K mark. Vogelbach is having professional at-bats, and still profiles as a DH. He's fanning a bit more than I'd expected, but there's no cause for alarm.

6. Christian Villanueva (Double-A Tennessee) 3B

I'm buying his glove more than his bat. I'll go with Scott Brosius as a comp.

7. Arismendy Alcantara (Double-A Tennessee) SS

I see little shot of Alcantara getting 3000 at bats in Chicago. He should get traded, probably this off-season. There are too many middle infielders with more luster in the system.

8. Jeimer Candelario (Low-A Kane County) 3B

His defense and power still need to develop, and that will happen through repetitions and maturation. The numbers really aren't important here.

9. Matt Szczur (Double-A Tennessee) OF

When the purge begins, Szczur will get a call to Triple-A Iowa. He still has things to work on in Tennessee, but they could be worked on in Iowa just as well.

10. Junior Lake (Triple-A Iowa) ????

I have no idea where to slot Lake. I doubt anyone does. He has a high ceiling, but a very remote chance of reaching it.

11. Willson Contreras (Low-A Kane County) C

Contreras benefits from nothing much being above him at his position. He will start the next two years, with plenty of time to work on all aspects of his game. In that sense, the anti-Alcantara.

12. Ronald Torreyes (Double-A Tennessee) 2B

He's young for his level, and may be a trade candidate if the parent club deals with someone interested in a young second baseman. I'm not trying to trade Torreyes, but some of these middle infielders will be redundant at some point.

13. Rock Shoulders (Low-A Kane County) 1B

While numbers aren't usually that important in minor league ball, Shoulders has battered himself into the equation. He won't supplant Anthony Rizzo, but if he keeps crushing the ball, someone will invest in him.

14. Jae-Hoon Ha (Double-A Tennessee) OF

His inability to stay healthy is hurting his chances. His offense and defense aren't the problems.

15. Rubi Silva (Double-A Tennessee) OF

If for no other reason, I put him here to stifle people who insist on immediate results from youngsters. He wasn't supposed to be able to hit. Or have any power. He's in Double-A doing well enough now to justify his investment.

16. Stephen Bruno (High-A Daytona) Utility

Bruno continues to hit, when healthy. He still has no real position, though.

17. Marco Hernandez (Low-A Kane County) SS

Hernandez is still young, but at some point, he has to start hitting or fielding to pass some of his competition.

18. Gioskar Amaya (Low-A Kane County 2B)

The numbers aren't there yet, but the Midwest League tends to favor pitchers.

19. Trey Martin (Low-A Kane County) OF

Presently injured, he is still a very solid defensive center fielder.

20. Carlos Penalver (Mesa) SS

As good a defensive shortstop as there is in the system, Penalver figures to start in short season ball with the Boise Hawks.

Starting Pitchers (Maximum limit 30 major-league innings)

1. Arodys Vizcaino (Mesa)

I see Vizcaino as a reliever, but I put him here. Appel or Gray would bump him down a peg.

2. Pierce Johnson (Kane County)

Really not much competition with him for this spot. Johnson is a mild underperformer so far this year.

3. Juan Carlos Paniagua (???)

When a guy who can't get into the country is your third best pitching prospect, that isn't a positive.

4. Dillon Maples (Kane County)

Not only has Maples made the big jump to full season ball, his control has been acceptable. That has historically been his bugaboo.

5. Hector Rondon (Chicago)

Rondon is the best of the Cubs' recent forays into the Rule 5 draft. If he were to be released, he'd land somewhere in the majors.

6. Kyle Hendricks (Tennessee)

A strike-thrower, he will be in line for a shot with the big club in the next few years. As a college draftee, he will be safe from Rule 5 status until December 2014.

7. Tayler Scott (Kane County)

The South African-born right-hander is doing well in Kane County this season. He largely pitches to contact, but has given up only one homer as a pro.

8. Paul Blackburn (Mesa)

As with any pitcher I haven't seen, I have little confidence on this selection. Blackburn has upside.

9. Duane Underwood (Mesa)

Another 'the devil you don't know over the devil you do know' type of choice, I'm not sure what Underwood will provide.

10. Chris Rusin (Iowa)

Rusin is not only Iowa's best pitcher so far, he's also one out from being booted out of the group. He could be a reliever if need be.

11. Alberto Cabrera (Tennessee)

Cabrera has the velocity to be dangerous. He needs to tune up his command.

12. Josh Conway (Mesa)

Conway is rehabbing his second major health problem with the Cubs, and he was drafted less than a year ago. I'd like to see him have a chance to pitch in a pro game that charges admission.

13. Ryan McNeil (Mesa)

McNeil is officially rehabbing an injury, but his draft status places him about here.

14. Eric Jokisch (Tennessee)

The Northwestern lefty's strikeout numbers are up this year, but his other numbers are a bit down.

15. Dallas Beeler (Tennessee)

Beeler is doing a bit better than last season for the Smokies, but probably would be a reliever with the parent club.

16. Ben Wells (Daytona)

With Wells, it is a matter of figuring it out or not. He hasn't yet, but if he does, he could vault past a few on the list.

17. Jose Rosario (Kane County)

Back from a ten-month or so injury; I still haven't heard exactly what it was. Nonetheless, he has enough velocity to belong around here.

18. Mike Heesch (Kane County)

Heesch is another case of 'don't mind the numbers'. His forte is ball movement. When he gets it, he retires hitters. If not, his numbers suffer.

19. Felix Pena (Kane County)

Now injured, Pena has a WHIP under one in the Midwest League this season.

20. James Pugliese (Mesa)

Pugliese is angling for the ace role in Boise this year, after struggling there a bit last season.

Relief pitchers (The 10 most likely to get 300 innings outside of the above 20.)

1. Kyuji Fujikawa (Chicago)

For Fujikawa to get in 300 innings, it would probably take four seasons in MLB. We'll see.

2. Zach Rosscup (Tennessee)

Rosscup is my choice to be the next in the Sean Marshall/James Russell line. He's not a closer, but records outs. He's one more piece of the Matt Garza deal.

3. Tony Zych (Tennessee)

Zych can be dominant. He can also be very hittable. If he can figure things out in Tennessee, he can claim a bullpen role in Chicago next season.

4. Frank Batista (Tennessee)

If it seems like most of the Smokies bullpen is in this category, you're observant. In reality, these should be the types of guy in the upper levels of bullpens.

5. Yeiper Castillo (Daytona)

Castillo is striking out a batter per inning in High-A ball.

6. Austin Kirk (Daytona)

Kirk is struggling in a replay in Daytona as a starter. A trip to the pen may be facilitated by the June draft.

7. Frank del Valle (Daytona)

Del Valle is entrenched as a reliever in Daytona this year. His strikeout numbers are very impressive.

8. Nathan Dorris (Kane County)

Dorris has been the Cougars' best reliever.

9. Trey McNutt (Tennessee)

How much of a Cubbie occurrence would it be for McNutt to figure it out after being traded or released?

10. Eddie Orozco (Kane County)

Orozco keeps getting the ball out of the pen in Geneva. His numbers are bruised, but his opportunity remains.

Poll

Who do you think is the safest bet to get 3000 major-league at-bats?

Cubs System Sonogram Flies Into Caracas

Tim Huwe — Tue, 14 May 2013 14:55:07 -0000

As Josh mentioned on Tuesday morning, the Venezuela Cubs (V-Cubs ?) lost their first game in the league by a 22-11 score. That the club lost by 11 runs obviously isn't a good thing, but having a team in Venezuela is. When perusing the VSL roster, I only recognized three of the names. Why is a roster of players even a borderline-obsessive doesn't recognize symbolize something good?

The Venezuelan League has been losing teams to the Dominican League recently. The reasons for the exodus seem to be political, but hopefully the topic can be read and not turned into a civics discussion. The Cubs are one of only five teams in the league this season. While it seems odd at first blush to send prospects away from the new, state-of-the-art facility in the Dominican, on further examination, it is very sound.

Major league baseball is heading toward a worldwide drafting setup. I don't like it, but that's how it appears it's going to be. Ownership and the Commissioner's Office want to keep spending down. Many teams don't appear to want to compete for the best global talent in a market as open as it is now. Soon, the best pitchers and hitters across the globe will be being selected like pitchers and hitters from U.S. colleges and high schools. It sounds like a draft will parcel out the 120-or so best international players per year. Having scouts to account for the 120-300 segment of prospects will become very important, as will be having roster spots for the upcoming prospects to play.

The two DSL teams the Cubs have had will now be but one. Instead of splitting the team up to different facilities, the men you practice with will be the players you play with. Reminiscent of the 2012 Boise squad, which brought just 10 hitters with only one catcher north for last season's Northwest League season, the V-Cubs have the same number: 10 hitters. The 35-man roster has 11 open spots, as of this morning. I'm confident a few more will be added, along with some pitchers, but opportunity will abound for the players on the team. Whether the team is successful in the win column is rather insignificant. What is important is having exposure in Venezuela, and opportunities for the players on the squad.

July 2nd will mark the beginning of the new international spending period begins. The preliminary spending numbers from a few weeks ago seem to be official now, and the Cubs seem to be favorites to heavy favorites for two of the top prospects. Eloy Jimenez (Dominican Republic) has a very nice looking swing for a 16-year-old outfielder, and Gleyber Torres (Venezuela) looks to be a quality middle infield prospect. Many signings in July will be of players who are just 16 years old; those young men won't do any playing until November in Arizona. I'm not sure if using the Dominican facilities will be permitted before then. Either way, it will be a while before many soon-to-be signings play anywhere in a game with a proper box score.

Finally, in the new world of baseball, knowledge of international prospects will be very important. So will training, both in baseball and non-baseball aspects of life. With teams leaving Venezuela over political uncertainty, getting a foothold in the country should help, not only in Venezuela, but elsewhere. Having a team there will provide options for youngsters the team signs. Be they from Venezuela, Brazil, or any other locale, the players the Cubs sign from overseas need places to play. Being in the VSL provides visibilty, at bats for hitters, and innings for pitchers.

I will pay way too much attention to these squads. Feel free to heed or ignore. Perhaps, one might get mentioned below. Now, on to Three Up/ Three Down.

Three Down

The weather in Florida

Over the weekend, the Daytona Cubs went three days without playing a game. Two were due to weather. Sunday was a league-wide day off due to Mother's Day. Over the next two days, the D-Cubs scored two runs in two games.

Jeimer Candelario (Low-A Kane County), 3B

Despite hitting his first homer recently, and drawing as many walks as he has had strikeouts over the period, Jeimer Candelario is slumping. Since May 4, he's hitting .194.

Frandy de la Rosa (Mesa extended spring training)

In an intrasquad game, the 2012 international signing failed to run out an infield popup. His punishment? The game was delayed while de la Rosa ran three laps around the bases. Note to everyone: Run out everything.

(A Few More Than) Three Up

The Ryan Dempster trade

With the potential Dempster-to-Atlanta trade blown up, reportedly by an ill-timed nap, Theo Epstein went into executive overdrive, bringing in Kyle Hendricks and Christian Villanueva (pictured above) from Texas for Dempster. Both are in Double-A Tennessee now. Hendricks has a sub-3 ERA, and has gone at least five innings in six of his seven starts. Villanueva is on a six-game hitting streak, and is pounding it with 9-for-17 since May 10. Both drew rave reviews from the Jackson announcer this week. As did...

Matt Szczur (Double-A Tennessee), OF

Szczur has a six-game hitting streak. He has multiple hits in each game. He's driven in six. In two of the last three, he has three hits. He's stolen four bases without being caught. He's drawn two walks, as well. The announcer dreads Szczur coming up, as he is 8-for-15 in the first three games. Szczur merited this article on MiLB.com.

The Tony Campana trade

When the designated-for-assignment Tony Campana was traded to Arizona, the two young pitchers that came back were Erick Leal and Jesus Castillo. Leal is back from an ankle injury, and will be in either Mesa with the AZL Cubs or in short season ball with the Boise Hawks in about a month. I'm happy to hear his golf cart ride was nothig serious. Castillo, on the other hand, is with the aforementioned V-Cubs. He hasn't pitched yet, but when you only have 24 guys on a rookie league team, all of them are important.

Jorge Soler (High-A Daytona Cubs), OF

While Soler's damage was mostly last week, he was named the Florida State League Player Of The Week. That's always a good thing.

Dillon Maples (Low-A Kane County), RHP

Though some of us had begun to doubt Maples existed, he started a game last week for the Cougars. He lasted five innings, and was in line for a win. I think Maples will be discussed in any major trade offer this off-season. I hope to see him start soon, so I can have an idea as to how little I want him dealt.

Poll

Who is most likely to be the first Cubs player dealt for international spending room?

Red Heads And Baseball

Tim Huwe — Tue, 14 May 2013 19:54:07 -0000

Red Heads And Baseball

An intriguing piece offered without comment.

Extend, Cultivate, Or Dump? A Cubs Exercise

Tim Huwe — Wed, 08 May 2013 12:21:12 -0000

In the aftermath of the Anthony Rizzo contract extension, I thought it might to be fun to play a mindless little game with extensions. Smart money would have the next extension going to a pitcher, from the triad of Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Matt Garza. While the upper minors don't look to have much of an excess of starting pitchers, the situation could look a bit less dire if the above three, in conjunction with Carlos Villanueva and Scott Feldman, keep it up. Or, get dealt for quality prospects. But that is far too deep for today's column, which is about fun.

I originally ran into this exercise as a financial game, but it is more often a raucous, juvenile offshoot of Tri-Bond and Spin-The-Bottle. In any version, a trio of usually people (usually of the opposite sex of the participants) are mentioned. One must fall in the Marry category. One goes in the Date group (though other words are normally used than date). The third goes in the other option, Kill. Since I try to be a non-violent person, and since this is a baseball blog, I've changed the categories.

I will mention three Cubs. One, you must extend. One, you must cultivate, or take time and energy to get them more ready to be traded. The other, you must dump. No other options. No two guys in one group. Very easy. For instance, if I say "Cody Ransom, Travis Wood, David DeJesus", the traditional expectation would be to extend Wood, cultivate DeJesus, and dump Ransom. However, you could want to extend DeJesus (to keep his wife on the players' wives' group), and cultivate Ransom, to get something in trade for the utility guy. In that instance, Wood is the dump.

Now that you know the rules, let's play the game. As we visit the bullpen, we run into "Shawn Camp, Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg". Since Gregg is the one retiring hitters of those three, I have little choice but to extend him. That extension might only last until late May, however. I still think Marmol has more potential trade value than Camp, so I cultivate Marmol, and dump Camp.

I can see some of you enjoying this. Here's a toughie. "Darwin Barney, Luis Valbuena, Nate Schierholtz". Or, from the rotation, the one that started me on this, "Garza, Feldman, Villanueva". Be nice, and feel free to explain your reasoning for your selections.

Poll

Which pitcher would you rather extend?

2013 MLB Draft Prep Contemplates Pick 41s

Tim Huwe — Tue, 07 May 2013 12:34:37 -0000

On a few previous occasions in this space, I've looked at specific rounds of specific drafts. What does a fifth round look like? How about a third round? As the draft is now less than a month away, for this post I've opted to look at two specific draft slots -- the 34th and 41st overall picks. Obviously, the 41st is due to the Cubs selection there. The 34th happens to be the Royals' trade-eligible 'Competitive Balance' selection.

With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, small-market teams have the opportunity to receive picks between the first and second round, or the second and third rounds. These picks, and only these picks, can be traded. If dealt, they must be traded for players, and can only be swapped once. Two trades have included these newly minted selections. The Tigers and Marlins exchanged picks with Jacob Turner and Anibel Sanchez being the main draws of the swap. The Pirates traded theirs last season for first baseman Gaby Sanchez, with minor league players going both ways. The Indians lost theirs when they signed Michael Bourn.

Since my look at pick 41 needs something for comparison, pick 34 seemed perfectly reasonable. To be sure, neither pick provides any sort of certainty. With the aid of Baseball Reference, here are the results historically of the noted draft slots.

Here are all the historical 41st picks

Top Three by WAR: Fred Lynn 49.9; Dan Plesac 17.6; Joba Chamberlain 7.2. Total at or above 5 WAR; 5

You've gotta be kidding me alert: Both Lance McCullers, father and son, were selected 41st.

Here are all the historical 34th picks

Top Three by WAR: Mark Gubicza 38; Bruce Bochte 19.2; Arthur Rhodes 15.4. Total at or above 5 WAR; 5.

Best current players chosen 34th overall: Todd Frazier and Rex Brothers

In other words, when you're drafting from mid-30's to early 40's, it really is a crapshoot. That said, there is talent available. I would lean toward a college arm with the 41st overall choice. However, if the Cubs do find a way to trade for the Royals' pick at 34, I'd probably be open to grabbing a prep with one of the selections.

###

On a more traditional note, Baseball America recently released their Top 100 prospect list. I'm not going to represent being smarter at talent evaluating than guys who do this for a living. I imagine the Cubs will have a list somewhat similar, and for the first X number of rounds, take a guy near the top of the 'who's left' list. I'm thrilled to see so many college pitchers in the high-twenties to mid-forties. You can read the list well enough to note arms from Jacksonville, Gonzaga, Mississippi, LSU (Ryan Eades is pictured at the top of this post), Marshall, San Francisco, Oral Roberts, UC Irvine, and Minnesota in that range. Whichever of those pitchers the brass likes, get them running through the system in 2014, so the rotation can have some more help. In that way, guys that aren't ready yet can spend some time in the pen before stepping into the rotation. That, or succeeding in Triple-A.

Mark Appel was ordinary this weekend. Stuff happens. He only lasted five innings, walked more than he fanned, and surrendered more hits than innings. He was tagged with the loss as Oregon State beat him 7-3.

Pushed back to Saturday, Jonathan Gray had a less-than stellar outing as well in a 4-3 loss to Oklahoma State. Gray fanned eight and walked three.

Here is a rather unsavory story about an international player lying to get signed. In this case, it seems to have backfired.

Poll

Draft Prep is hoping for more college pitching. Does that make sense?

Cubs System Sonogram Looks Down Under

Tim Huwe — Mon, 06 May 2013 16:41:41 -0000

What could a guy in a guernsey (uniform) or jumper (another name for uniform) have to do with the Cubs? Actually, it has nothing to do with baseball, directly. I do trust that it will end up being yet another way of rephrasing the Cubs system problems and solutions.

In my high school days, ESPN aired (along with pro wrestling and roller derby) Australian Rules Football. A curious mix of soccer, rugby, and US football, it was something I'd never seen. Sadly, when Bristol quit airing the sport, it left my consciousness. A few years ago, the network began airing Australian Football Games again, and my younger brother and I took to the sport again. I didn't really have a squad in the day, as the cities often sounded (no offense) a bit silly. Footscray? Collingwood? Geelong? Really?

When it came back to my computer screen, I did some research (via YouTube) and found a team I liked. I thought. Long story, but without looking at the standings or records, I picked the Geelong Cats. (When will this involve baseball? I've got to catch up on my Twitter feed.) As it turns out, the club was very good until the early 1960s. Then, they started getting rather weak at recruiting, developing players, and training them. This lasted, largely until about 10 years ago. Then, they had a few really good drafts, started developing the quality players they did draft, and picked up a few disgruntled veterans from other squads. (Trades are a rarity in the AFL, and free agency doesn't really exist.) You are, in the AFL, what you develop.

ESPN no longer covers the AFL, but the itch had been scratched, and I follow audio coverage from the league site. Back to my Catters, they won a "Premiership" (equates to the World Series) in 1963, but not again until 2007. Then again in 2009. Then again in 2011. Sometimes, they have won with an inferior club, relatively. Sometimes, they get beaten in the post-season by a team they're better than. However, when a team plays Geelong, they know they must bring their best effort.

Overnight Friday, the undefeated Geelong Cats met the undefeated Essendon Bombers. Despite being down by three goals midway through the second term (quarter), the Cats kicked the ball much better than Essendon the rest of the way, won handily, and will be atop the ladder (standings) heading into their match (game) next week with bitter rival Collingwood. And, yes, music is very important in football over there. When you win, you get your song played over the loudspeaker. Sound familiar? Geelong's is an opera piece from "Carmen", and it makes me want to go out and mark (defend) somebody. And connect on a ripper from 35 metres out.

***

So what has that to do with the Cubs? It's a different sport, in a different hemisphere, with different rules. The key to note is that, when Geelong was haphazardly run, they were a bad team. When they started to do the proper things in the front office, there was a lag between executive clarity and success in the trophies-won category. Now, when the draft is held, Geelong drafts at the bottom, with all the teams with bad records getting first crack at the newest, best talent. But a funny thing will happen on the way down to Geelong's first pick. The Cats selection, be he a center-halfback or a ruckman (yeah, there's a bit of language adjustment there), he will be well trained. Their coach is completely willing to give a youngster a bit of trial-by-fire (they don't have options or Rule 5 drafts to deal with), and usually, they seem to fit in rather well. (On a podcast on the sport I listen to, on the draft edition, their standard line ends up being that when a player with ability slips far enough, Geelong will happily take him. As if they needed him.)

In today's game, Jackson Thurlow (pictured) played in his first-ever AFL game. After a start where the other team isolated him a bit, leading to a uneven beginning, he was a very good player in his first game. If the selection process and the training are done well enough, a team can eventually win. And maybe even be hated for their winning. (My apologies to an league experts if I mis-relayed a fact or two. I'm still learning as well.) Now, on to Three Up/Three Down.

Three Down

Lendy Castillo (Low-A Kane County), RHP

The off-season talk was that Castillo would start the year as a starter in Double-A Tennessee. That didn't happen. He also slid past High-A Daytona. His time in the Midwest League has been unsatisfying. Castillo entered Monday's start against light-hitting Dayton with an ERA of 8.53. It went up that morning. He has surrendered homers in his last four starts. If Josh Conway were healthy, they could swap spots. Castillo hasn't advanced at all. At least he was well-paid for his service. (By the way, Conway is in very good spirits, despite his injury.)

Starling Peralta (High-A Daytona), RHP

As off as Castillo has been, Peralta has been worse. Since a nice opener, he's had a trip to the DL and three very bad outings. I wouldn't be surprised at all to hear of surgery in his future. It's been a tough start for Rule 5 selections.

Trey McNutt (Double-A Tennessee), RHP

McNutt's last five outings have been for less than two innings. He has surrendered 10 hits and five walks in those outings, which comprise less than seven innings..

Three Up

Jorge Soler (High-A Daytona), OF

Since late April, Soler is hitting over .400. Since May 4th, he has three homers. In his current four-game hitting streak, he has two homers, a triple, and three doubles. That is what Cubs fans have been expecting more of. Hopefully, it continues.

Bijan Rademacher (Low-A Kane County), OF

Rademacher has a stat-fan's dream week going on. Due to an injury to Trey Martin (who should be activated when the rain stops), Rademacher has a six-game hitting-streak going, with multiple hits in the last five games. I hope you activated him for your Midwest League fantasy team this week.

Rafael Lopez (Double-A Tennessee), C

A couple weeks ago, I put Lopez in the other category. In his last 23 at-bats, he has two homers, more walks than strikeouts, and a seven-game hitting streak.

Poll

Leaving out soccer, what is your favorite traditionally non-American sport?

2013 MLB Draft Prep Watches Mark Appel Pitch

Tim Huwe — Sun, 05 May 2013 12:41:11 -0000

Over the weekend, Stanford and Mark Appel visited Arizona State. Since the ESPN family of networks aired the game, I was able to watch. Keith Law was in attendance, as were three of the Cubs front office brass. Since I finally got to watch him, I can finally comment on what I actually saw, not just what I have read.

With Appel, a college hitter has to turn into a guess hitter. His mid-to-high 90s fastball is possibly the easiest to hit of his three offerings. It tends to be a bit straight, still. But 96 is 96. When a college hitter sits on his heater, Appel's slider tends to make them look foolish, as the 6-5 righty doesn't tip off when it's coming. Appel's third solid pitch is his improving change. Against ASU, he was throwing all three for strikes early. In only one inning was he hit hard. That was when he had a nice lead, and the opponents were swinging aggressively, and guessing correctly. Appel still hasn't given up an earned run after the fifth inning this year. Stanford won 5-3 Friday night.

If Appel is on the board for the No. 2 overall choice, the Cubs will take him. The Houston Astros, who draft before the Cubs, had four people at the game. Appel hit one batter, walked one, and fanned 13 over 122 pitches. As much of a Jonathan Gray fan as I've become, I'm perfectly happy with either choice.

***

Speaking of Jonathan Gray, the flame-throwing Oklahoma Sooner, how about some recent video? As a fan of hockey, I quickly noticed the Captain's C, which Gray probably earned before he was hitting triple digits every week. In Gray's most recent outing against West Virginia, he struggled early, but drew a Justin Verlander comp on keeping his velocity until the end of the 111-pitch outing. It sounded like he struggled with command early, but was at his best late.

Among the interesting things about Gray is that his delivery/mechanics don't seem very special. If something can be done to help him tweak his motion, he could possibly get better. By the way, I'm really happy Colorado whupped the Cubs in that late-2012 series. I'm glad that, off of a horrible year like last season, the second pick is the reward. The second selection looks much better than a hollow win by Justin Germano in September, 2012, and the third selection.

***

As far as the rest of the draft, Through The Fence Baseball did some research on who they'd like to see the Cubs take with the picks after Appel or Gray. While it may come as a surprise to some, I really wouldn't be too upset going with a balance of arms. Last year's draft was so heavy with prep pitchers many of them will never reach High-A ball. Whether due to injuries, lack of control, command, or secondary offerings, the floor on the high school pitcher is legitimately nothing. A college arm can be quickly brought into the system, and be a legitimate Double-A (or trade bait) option in a year and a month. By that point, the best-case scenario for a high school arm is Boise and short-season ball. The same risk exists for catchers, especially. If the player is that good, then by all means, gamble. However, grabbing a quality SEC veteran backstop with an early pick (Spencer Navin from Vanderbilt, for instance. I'm calling it.) can have you a player ready to contribute when the team becomes a division contender in 2015 (?).

***

A bit on the David Price trade rumors, as there have been enough separate posts about them. Since it has ancillary overlap with the draft, I'll throw it here. What pleases me the most is that the current line is that the Cubs and Texas Rangers are pretty much the only two contenders now. Many teams simply don't have the financial interest in signing Price long-term. Even today, the Cubs can't. But as the details on Wrigley expansion and TV deals progress, the Cubs certainly should be able to afford him in the near future.

Some of the teams that would love to buy him in free agency (Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and even the St. Louis Cardinals, perhaps), won't have the prospects to pull it off. How can I include the Cardinals, with the top system in baseball, in that category? Many of their prospects will be no longer prospects when the deal gets made. They could still attempt a blockbuster trade for Price, but it doesn't fit their M.O.

If only two suitors exist, and I'm hearing caveats regarding Texas' prospects, Tampa's Andrew Friedman won't have that many teams to play one-side-against-the-other with. I imagine Javier Baez or Albert Almora might be the starting point. If there were six legitimate suitors, Friedman might require both. However, with so few competitors in the sweepstakes, the hang-up button on Theo Epstein's phone is his friend. Since the Rays haven't developed first basemen well, Dan Vogelbach or Rock Shoulders will be in play. I expect Pierce Johnson to be in the discussion, along with a Matt Szczur or Logan Watkins type. I really don't know that Texas (or anyone else) would offer more than that. To add a pitcher of Price's ability, that may (or may not) be a reasonable amount to send. Remember, though, fewer than five teams are vying for him, likely.

Even if you think that's too much to offer for a pitcher who will demand a pricey six-year deal, the Cubs are approaching that sweet spot of development. If a team has a quality player that is getting well-paid, and they want to trade him, the Cubs are one of the best trade partners around. If Toronto is still in fifth in a month, if GM Alex Anthopolous wants to shed some salary (after all, Jose Reyes is around somewhere), the Cubs will be in the discussion. A Mark Buehrle might be sent to a contender, but if talent in return is important, Team Theo can offer more than most. If, of course, salary numbers are reasonable.

While trade prospects for the Cubs will usually go 'the other way' (outgoing vet for prospects) this year, once the finances get sorted out more, bringing in veteran talent with team control may be an option sooner than later. Which is another reason to seriously consider collegiate options over high school players in some cases. The way I'd put it, I'd want the player at 41 (the second round selection) with the highest likelihood to have a 25 WAR career. Or the highest 'The Will to Win' factor. (Kidding.)

Cubs System Sonogram Gets Re-Instated

Tim Huwe — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 22:18:53 -0000

I was going to rant about bullpens giving up leads late far too often, but things like that happen in minor-league ball. Instead of assessing the lack of pitching depth so far, what's important is to remember that in the awful weather so far this spring, sometimes it takes a spell to get up to performing to your standards. Or, sometimes, the players are just over their heads in competition. It happens. Now, on to our regular feature, Three Up - Three Down (which, as you will see, has a few more down than usual).

Three Down

Golf carts

Golf carts are rarely a good thing to see in any competition except golf. What they usually indicate is the strong possibility of a severe injury. While many of us are familiar with seeing (for instance) a lineman get taken off on a cart in a football game, but sometimes it happens in baseball. Again, with usually predictive bad results. The player you are most familiar with in the category recently is a player for whom the injury seems the least severe.

Jae-Hoon Ha (Double-A Tennessee) was injured pre-game in Mississippi during batting practice, and was carted off. The next night, he was back in the locker room, but not in uniform. It sounds like he should be okay, but it might take a few days. Fortunately, it sounds far less severe than it could have been.

In Mesa, a couple of players you haven't seen in competition received the 'golf cart' treatment. Pitchers Erick Leal (acquired in the Tony Campana trade) and Daniel Adrian were injured within minutes of each other, and Adrian's sounds rather severe. It occurred on a nifty tag play at the plate.

Josh Conway (Mesa), RHP

With as much money as is invested in the players involved, it amazes me how injuries like this happen. It occurred at the Brewers' Arizona facility in Maryvale. The Cubs and Brewers were playing a weekend game, and the mound was just about unplayable. The weekend field prep crew isn't a full staff. Both pitchers were struggling to find their landing spot, and keeping their spikes clean. After pitching a solid inning, Conway's shoulder popped. I'm not saying the field conditions caused the injury, but shouldn't a big league club have enough field maintenance for a Saturday game to have this not be an issue?

To make matters worse, Conway (a fourth-round pick in 2012, signed at below the slot recommended value, coming off Tommy John surgery) had been pitching and feeling well, was up to 80 pitches per outing, and was probably close to getting a call-up to Kane County (Low-A) or Daytona (High-A). Thanks, Brewers. (Yes, I was sarcastic, there.) Staff your field, regardless what the day of the week it is. Not happy.

Justin Bour (Double-A Tennessee), 1B

While Bour isn't likely to be a long-term answer at the major league level ever, he has been a solid middle-of-the-order hitter in the system the last few years. If he could advance a few things, he could be a short-term answer, getting the player perk of a cup of big-league coffee. However, in late April, Bour fractured his wrist. Not only does that steal needed at bats from him, but wrist injuries tend to sap power for an extended period of time. Hopefully he recovers quickly.

Three Up

Pierce Johnson (Low-A Kane County), RHP

After a bad stat line in his first outing, and a bad first inning in his next one, Johnson has been very solid. Numbers at the lower minor league levels, as you likely know, can lie somewhat at times. Some of the hits Johnson has given up have been a bit fortunate for the hitters. His fastball has been mostly in the low-90s, but velocity numbers are a bit useless in cold weather. One of the experts has noted the important thing for Johnson will be to survive the year healthy. He should be in Daytona soon.

Rock Shoulders (Low-A Kane County), 1B

Shoulders continues to hit, even into May. One of the fun things about him hitting so well this year is that if the Cubs make a trade this off-season, giving up Dan Vogelbach would be made less frustrating if Shoulders keeps hitting. Shoulders has been playing some left field. It hasn't been pretty, but he is showing he can do it. Nobody expects the outfield to be his home, but it's nice when he doesn't have to be prodded. His walk-off homer a few nights ago was off of a lefthander, so hopefully he can display power against all pitching.

Daytona Cubs

I was going to credit the High-A affiliate's offense, as when I've listened recently, they've been hitting well. That said, in their current 8-of-9 stretch, they haven't given up more than five in any game, and only that many twice. Stephen Bruno was just put on the seven-day disabled list, and Taylor Davis came off that list, hitting an opposite field HR his first at bat. Ben Carhart has a nine-game hitting streak, and made a nice defensive play over the weekend as well. Carhart has 16 hits in his last 34 trips. Yeiper Castillo has allowed only three hits and a walk over his last nine innings, fanning 14. While Javier Baez and Jorge Soler will always get the headlines, this team is running over 20 deep.

Dallas Beeler (Double-A Tennessee), RHP

Beeler has won his last three starts. That isn't a popular stat, but he has gone seven innings in two of his last three starts. He went one out short of that in his other.. He hasn't given up a run in his last two starts, and only gave up two earned runs (four total) the start before. As far as major league potential, Beeler is probably more of a reliever than starter. That said, he has had a solid three weeks.

Felix Pena (Low-A Kane County), RHP

While only four of his five outings have been solid, Pena has gone at least 5⅔ innings in all of his appearances. He came from out of nowhere with a great post-season outing for Boise in 2012, and seems to have turned a corner in development. While not likely to be a big leaguer, he's putting up good numbers, and effort and results are all that can be requested.

Frandy de la Rosa (Mesa), SS

An international signing from last season, de la Rosa had a nice performance in a recent intrasquad game. While it's unclear if he will be in the Dominican or Mesa come June, at least the Cubs' second-highest bonus recipient in the IFA market has represented in the states.

Poll

Relievers surrendering leads late seems to be a systemic problem. What is your favorite way of upgrading the bullpens in the system during the season?

Roster Jenga.

3 votes

Trading spare outfielders from the parent club for prospects.

9 votes

Drafting college pitchers,

6 votes

Does Dillon Maples still exist? (Yes. He's pitching in Mesa.)

5 votes

Hating on the Brewers for debilitating our pitchers with their unplayable fields.

12 votes

Developing our own, like Pierce Johnson.

17 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

2013 MLB Draft Prep Gets Kicked Off The Team

Tim Huwe — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 12:47:08 -0000

When I write, odd as it may seem, I'm writing for me. While the concept of a "runner's high" isn't truly an accurate comp, it gets the sentiment across. I get pleasure out of taking a blank computer screen, writing 1,000 or so words on it, and having people read it. That some are driven to respond is icing on the cake. That said, I prefer my writing to usually have a beginning, a middle, and an end. A list of names of people, with mainly links to other people's opinions isn't what I like writing. While it might make for meaty reading, writing comprehensive lists isn't compelling for me.

So, while I know many of you would like lists of a dozen high school pitchers the Cubs might take with the No. 41 overall pick (also termed '2.2', or 'with their second round pick'), there are a few problems, regardless of my expectations in February. College games are fine when the only competition is NBA games. Even a Cubs game in Mesa can be followed online if a Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina game is also online. However, once the minor leagues get going, the likelihood of a solid college match-up not going opposite a Cubs affiliate match-up lessens to a significantly insignificant number quickly.

So, I usually end up parroting something like "Kris Bryant is still mashing out west", "Jonathan Gray just embarrassed a very mediocre college team", or "Mark Appel struggled in an outing that won't really matter in his talent analysis". Not very snappy, though in this week's case, all of them are true. With the second pick in June's draft, the Cubs figure to get a really good player, and we'll see who they prefer then.

This Draft Prep runs a bit contrary, though. I've been sitting on this one for two weeks, waiting for something to break. It hasn't, and probably won't very soon. Nonetheless, the premise is a great article. I'm going with it, as I'm very intrigued by the potential discussions, as the responses could be all over the map. And none are wrong. And no Cubs blog has gone there yet.

The next few paragraphs will be scant on linked facts. There are two ways I could do this, and I went with the one less likely to be construed as muck-raking, since I don't know most of those said facts. There are some facts here available online, as you'll see. I haven't seen anyone else doing a full-length feature, but I'm more intrigued by your responses than blowing up someone's career. And comments elsewhere have been deleted as inaccurate or incendiary, so please keep yours civil.

****

A few weeks back, a powerhouse high school program took a travel trip to a prestigious tournament. When they returned, their school was on spring break. In the interim between the tournament and their next game, word broke that 'some of the players' had been suspended. One player on the team is a two-way threat that has taken to using wood bats in games to show off his stuff. Since the tourney in question, he has not played, either pitching or hitting. Someone commented off the record that, had this happened almost anywhere else, the punishment would have probably been a game, not the season.

Here's one story about what happened; here's another, and yet another. As you can see, no one's saying much, and I have no idea what the offense was. The school doesn't have to say. One of the players on the team is still being included in some mock drafts, but he has never been in consideration for a Top-10 pick.

With all the talk around for drafting 'best player available', should the Cubs' brass consider drafting a high schooler that sounds serious about being a pro ball player, but did something that may well have gotten him kicked off his high school team? That is the question.

Some of the front office likely has a bug in the ear of the head coach of the team. Depending on the severity of the situation, he certainly could have already had his dossier shredded. Depending on his level of involvement, and the infraction, he might not be a fit for the system. By the draft, you will probably know who I'm not naming. That is the nature of the intelligence game. Writers don't want to name names without verified sources. The sources linked above made me confident enough to float the premise.

Do you want the best available talent? Or do you want best available that hasn't been kicked off his team? Again, please keep your comments to these questions, rather than speculation about who this might be.

***

Two weeks ago, I listened to the Oklahoma Sooners' game at Baylor instead of the Daytona game on a Friday night. Jonathan Gray was the reason. The big right-hander struggled mightily with his control early, though he wasn't getting hurt by it much. Gray was well over 50 pitches through three, but had only given up one run. Gray was getting a bit of mileage from his change-up, but was off a bit with his high-90's fastball, hitting 100 a few times. As with many top-shelf pitchers, if you want to finish him off, you might want to early.

Baylor didn't. From the fourth through the eighth innings, Gray had only one long at bat against, as a lower-end hitter fouled off some pitches before fanning. It was largely a 'status unchanged' effort. If you already liked him, it wouldn't spike his value, despite a slow start. He finished eight, and left with the game tied. His relief help surrendered a walk-off homer in the last of the ninth. Baylor won 2-1.

Gray strikes out 10 of 20 versus New Orleans in this win.

Appel fans six in a mediocre outing.

Bryant has 20 homers.

Poll

If a good player gets suspended, how do you think it should alter his draft status?

Shouldn't matter.

9 votes

Case-by-case basis.

104 votes

Shred his files, and get him off the draft board.

5 votes

I have an opinion, but I'm not telling what it is.

3 votes

121 votes | Poll has closed

Cubs System Sonogram Likes Chicken Noodle Soup

Tim Huwe — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:32:05 -0000

It's still very early, but there are finally some good trends to observe.

This week's extended look will be at the High-A Daytona Cubs stats, linked from my general stats update page. Daytona, even without Jorge Soler for almost a week, even with Javier Baez in another two-week funk, is crushing the ball. They sit top two in BA, SLG, OBP, OPS, and HR. They have an OBP of .374, and are the only team of 12 over .350. Their OPS of .816 is the only one over .800.

Conversely, the pitching isn't helping much. Giving up 27 hits in one game was an obvious drag, but their walks given up and WHIP are both bottom three in the 12 team league. Conversely, the team is tied for second with 109 strikeouts recorded. Only Double-A Tennessee's WHIP is in the league's top five, so much of the pitching help has a distance to travel still.

Three Up

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP (Double-A Tennessee): Rhee is in his sixth year with the Cubs. That means, after this season, if he isn't added to the 40-man roster, he can sign as a free agent with any team in the league. Rhee has had 'tools', but hasn't put things all together yet. Out of the gate in 2013, he's started twice. In over ten innings, Rhee has given up only three hits and three walks. While I'm not saying he's ready for Wrigley, another solid start may be his ticket to Triple-A Iowa. Whether he's ready or not, this may be the season to push him along.

Stephen Bruno, Utility (High-A Daytona): Bruno led the Northwest League in slugging in 2012, as a member of the Boise Hawks. The sarcastic comment was, as old as he is for the level, he should hit well. This season, he skipped Low-A Kane County, and went straight to High-A Daytona. In the Florida State League, Bruno's OPS is over one (1.013), and has a hit or two in his last 11 contests.

Ronald Torreyes- 2B (Double-A Tennessee): For whatever reason, be it injury, late reporting date, conditioning, defensive display, or combination thereof, Torreyes was initially sent to extended spring training in Mesa. Torreyes has escaped Mesa and has stepped in as the second hitter/backup leadoff hitter for the Smokies. His defense has been solid enough, he is patient at the plate, and is getting on base. Most importantly, he is back, and adding to options in the system on the offensive side. Small sample size applies, but his OPS is 1.192.

Rubi Silva, OF (Double-A Tennessee): Silva is 12-for-23 over the last week. One was a triple, two were homers, and for the season, he's hitting over .500 against lefties in a curious split. Silva's OPS on the young season is 1.122. And, yes, I know that's four in 'Three Up'.

Three Down

Low-A Kane County's outfield: We all knew the Cougars would miss 2013 top pick Albert Almora until he returns from his hamate bone injury. However, Trey Martin, Pin-Chieh Chen, and Oliver Zapata are all hitting below .190. In 90 at bats combined, they have four extra base hits.

Double-A Tennessee's catchers: Jair (pronounced Jay) Fernandez and Rafael Lopez are the Smokies' tandem. The argument can be made that the Smokies have the best pitching in the system, so the catchers are doing their job. However, Fernandez has an OPS of .633 as the back-up, with Lopez at .338 as the starter. If you're looking for offensive thump for the parent club in the next year or so, the first couple weeks have been a bad omen so far. Lopez is 3-for-31.

Luis Liria, RHP (High-A Daytona): Liria has pitched in three games, and has gone four innings. He has surrendered 11 hits, and 11 runs, all earned. When your WHIP is 3.5, that isn't very good.

Cubs System Sonogram Goes To A Twinbill

Tim Huwe — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 22:02:04 -0000

When it's raining as you arrive at a ballgame, and the bus has the lights on and is full of players, it's not a good sign baseball will be played. Since that was the case Monday, my friend Jen and I returned to Beloit's Pohlman Field for what was both a doubleheader and the entire series. Since you've probably already read Josh's review of the game, I'll regale you with stories of what wasn't in the boxscores.

When we arrived, the second inning of Game 1 of the doubleheader was just beginning. The Snappers (Oakland Athletics Low-A affiliate) already had a three-run lead. I didn't get to see the three errors the Kane County Cougars (Cubs Low-A affiliate) made in the first inning, and it sounds like a good thing. Marco Hernandez, Oliver Zapata, and Dan Vogelbach had combined to make three errors in the first three hitters, My radar gun seemed to be better at judging speeds at vehicles on the street than pitched baseballs, so it was of little use today. But, by the second inning, my scorecard was ready.

Since we were seated just in front of the Oakland scouts (be they actual scouts or pitchers, I wasn't sure), I was hearing the velocity numbers for the Beloit hurlers. I wasn't hearing anything mid-nineties all day long. I wasn't seeing too much more from the Cougars' arms either, as far as velocity. Jose Arias was probably around 89-91 for velocity. I would like to say I was expecting more, but after hearing in his first outing that he was tipping off his off-speed stuff (as per radio announcer Wayne Randazzo), I was happy he was getting people out.

Beloit was running on Arias at will. It wasn't so much Arias' fault, though. The two Snappers steals were aided in no slight measure by Wilson Contreras' throws. Both of them tailed severely to the first-base side of second base, one of which was on a pitchout. I didn't have replay, so I couldn't tell if a good throw records an out or not, but with those throws, pretty much anyone slides safely into second. Especially when the back-up infielder catches the ball. Conversely, the one early steal attempt by Kane County ended on a perfect throw by Snappers catcher Nick Rickles. Trey Martin had a decent jump, but slid into the tag at second.

Through the first game's first five innings, the 3-0 score held, with only two memorably humorous moments. On an infield pop, Jeimer Candelario properly took control of one ten feet from the plate in foul territory. He called "I got it. I got it. I got it." As the ball was coming down, a player on the Beloit bench hollered, "I got it." Candelario sent the entire team a death stare after recording the out. A bit later, on a check swing, Candelario watched a nubber down the third base line hug the chalk. Candelario dropped to his knees to apparently give it the Lenny Randle treatment, trying to blow it foul. That was Beloit's last hit of the game.

Coming into the sixth inning, Kane County's offense had been generally silent. Second sacker Gioskar Amaya had singled twice, and other hard hit balls tended to be one-hoppers to infielders. Amaya started the sixth inning off with a walk. Dan Vogelbach ripped one between first and second for a single, with Amaya stopping at second. Then Candelario pounded one to deep right-center for a double with Amaya scoring, and Vogelbach being held at third. Rock Shoulders laced the third successive pounded ball right at the second baseman. Candelario was somewhat fortunate to get back without being doubled off. Marco Hernandez hammered a double to the same spot Shoulders did, and Candelario failed to score from second. Here's why. Candelario had a nice jump off of second, but as he approached third, Vogelbach was (properly) tagging. Instead of remaining near third, where he should have stayed, Candelario went back toward second. When the ball caromed to the outfielder, and the throw was true, Candelario was unable to score from second on a 375-foot double to right-center. A liner to third, and a deep fly to right made it look like Candelario's baserunning might cost Kane County the game.

Meanwhile, Jeff Antigua entered for Arias in the fifth. His off-speed stuff was keeping Beloit's lefty-dominated lineup off balance. This is Antigua's fifth year in the Midwest League. Nonetheless, nobody was doing much with him today. He retired seven of his last eight hitters, and it appeared that if the Cougars could take a lead in the seventh, Antigua might close it out in the bottom half.

Martin led the seventh inning off with a hit by pitch. This led to the key at bat in the game. Do you bunt, or do you swing away with lead-off man Zapata? Remember, the catcher made a textbook throw to gun down Martin earlier. (It really helped being there live to see this play out, as the closeness displayed the strategy.) Getting Martin to second for the heavy lumber upcoming was paramount, and the pitcher lobbed to first to see if Zapata was representing bunt. He wasn't. On the first pitch, Zapata squared early, and drew back on an outside pitch. One ball, no strikes. What say you?

The third baseman drew close, and the second baseman strayed from second to be ready to cover first. The SS covered a bit of the hole toward third, and Martin darted on the pitch. The throw was good, but the representing of a bunt left nobody able to properly cover second. Martin was safe. The next pitch was bunted toward, but short of, the third baseman. The pitcher played the ball, as the third baseman wasn't sure if he should play the ball or not. It probably didn't matter, as Zapata legged it out, with the runner moving up. With the bunt represented and executed perfectly in a succession of three pitches, the Cougars had runners on first and third with nobody out.

On a semi-hit-and-run Amaya hit a hump-backed liner to shallow right. Neither runner advanced. With the pitch-charters behind me saying, "Walk him," Vogelbach, batted. The pitcher was in the stretch, and the hitter apparently requested time. The umpire didn't verbally grant it, but after the pitcher dropped the ball on the rubber (for which should have been a game-tying balk), the umpire retroactively called time. The Cougars bench chirped some, but on the next pitch, Vogelalbach became one of about six hitters to almost take out a pitcher's knee, tying the game anyway. The screamer made it to center field, and Zapata moved to third. Candelario pounded a sac fly to center for the eventual game-winner, and Shoulders was unsuccessful in drilling one past the first baseman. In the last two innings, almost all the Cougars contact was solid. Antigua's 1-2-3 ninth closed out the 4-3 win.

One other play of note involved a Beloit runner on first taking off for second. Amaya was covering the bag, and he ranged three steps to the right of second to make the play. I'm not sure about Amaya's defense overall, but he can certainly make the above average play.

In the doubleheader's second game, Marco Hernandez (who still plays defense standing on the grass, and as often as not starts he travel toward the ball with a lateral or even backward step) doubled to left with two outs in the second. He swiped third, and the catcher threw the ball into left. While the catcher earned the error, the third baseman seemed more intent on completing the tag play, even though he hadn't caught the ball.

Into the bottom of the second inning, thus, the Cougars were looking at a sweep. However, one of the reasons minor league games can drag on forever is due to the umpire's strike zones. Michael Heesch was Kane County's starter in the nightcap. He is a lefty with an apparently nice repertoire of off-speed stuff. However, when the strike zone (for both sides, I feel compelled to add) is the size of the insert you put inside of a 45 RPM single for it to play on a 33 RPM turntable (yeah, I'm that old), games can drag on a bit. Heesch only walked one, but his first two curves in the second inning were called balls. They weren't, but at 2-0 (instead of 0-2), he had to challenge the hitter. The ensuing double was the first of three in the inning, and Renato Nunez would have two in the inning. Hernandez misplayed a ball at short, and Beloit tallied seven in the second.

A few times, the Cougars were that one hit away from making it close again, but the key hit never happened. Since the Snappers scored seven or more and won, we had Culvers custard on the way home for free.

It would have been fun to see Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, or some of the guys rehabbing in Mesa, but in the final analysis, having sixth-row seats behind the plate for under 10 bucks can't be beat. Consider taking in a minor league game this season, whether or not it's in the Cubs pipeline. The twinbill we saw had an announced attendance of under 400 fans. Yeah, it was a bit cold, but the hot chocolate was wonderful. And I was able to see Dan Vogelbach almost take out two pitchers' knees with liners back up the box.

The regular Cubs System Sonogram weekly will appear later this week.

Poll

When talking about a ridiculously small strike zone, what is the best analogy?

A coin.

5 votes

A two-liter bottle top.

3 votes

A POG. (I warned you I was old. enough to be obscure.)

13 votes

A ramen noodle.

1 votes

A record insert.

6 votes

Other. (Explain below.)

3 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

The Cubs System Sonogram Is Off To A Slow Start

Tim Huwe — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 08:34:40 -0000

Every week, I'm going to look at the past week in the Cubs farm system, try to spot a few trends, post the team stats, and post "Three Up: Three Down" for some hot and cold performers. There will be less frustrating weeks in the future.

My weekly stats assessment is here. It's a whole lot of not happy, especially in Iowa. The Triple-A Iowa Cubs have lost games in the least imaginative way possible. They've been pounded early. In case you haven't checked the stats (pulled from MiLB on Thursday morning, as will be the goal every week), the team WHIP is 1.89, which is about a half-runner per inning higher than what it should be. On opening night, the I-Cubs surrendered three runs in the first inning. The next night, none. Then two, two, six, three, and finally none again. In the first inning.

The offense has been adequate enough, but not enough to counter that mass of big-number innings by the opposition. Ryan Sweeney, Brian Bogusevic, and Logan Watkins lead the way on offense, but perhaps they already miss Alberto Gonzalez.

None of the affiliates are playing what would be considered really good baseball yet. I've been usually listening to High-A Daytona or Low-A Kane County, and they have set a low bar for improvement, though the D-Cubs actually won their first series. It is going to get better, right?

To compound things, I took a couple days off of work to watch the Kane County games next week in Beloit, and it doesn't sound like Mother Nature wants to co-operate.

***

Three Up: Three Down

Jorge Soler, OF, High-A Daytona: Soler was 10-for-23 in the first week, with his bat swinging becoming legendary for the wrong reasons in the opposing dugout. He's playing smart defense, has a pair of homers, and has nudged ahead in my mental list of The Prospect game. I was tempted to put him in the other list as well, but that would have been far too depressing.

Rock Shoulders, 1B, Low-A Kane County: Shoulders has a hit in every game so far this season. Very impressively, he has a five-game streak of two hits or more, started off by a four-hit output on April 6. He has two homers, of his team's three on the season. Shoulders even played in left field in a game, though his UZR defensive ratings are still a secret.

Arismendy Alcantara, IF, Double-A Tennessee: Alcantara's numbers aren't eye-popping, but he's extending at bats, playing defense, healthy, but almost more importantly (for this section's purposes), having his name pronounced differently. Last year, it was Al-Can-TA-Ra (or somesuch). This year, it's Al-can-TE-ra. I even saw it spelled that way. He is healthy, though. It's nice to get to watch him play on MiLB-TV most nights. The Cubs system is getting mileage out of developing middle infielders.

Down

Javier Baez, SS, High-A Daytona: There, I said it. Baez still isn't doing much of anything with High-A breaking stuff. I really want him to succeed, but he stands now as a shining example of why I really don't like to project specific success and timetables. Sitting in my house in northern Illinois, it's really easy to say this guy or that ought to progress at a certain rate, or on some time-specific chronology. It doesn't happen that way. At some point, Baez may become a hitter willing to be patient enough to trust his bat speed. Or, he may be that guy who in high school ping-pong wanted me to serve the ball really high to him. I didn't. When I finally did, he slammed it past me, thinking he was 'all that'. Baseball is a game of patience, and constantly following what your coaches are teaching. Offensively and defensively. When Baez learns that, he will be very fun to watch. Until then, he will be Junior Lake frustrating. Or worse.

The Bullpens, in general: Too many times, the starters have turned decent leads over to the bullpens, just to see them squandered. Or the offense cuts in to a lead, a the reliever blows the lead back out a bit. If I were dispassionately looking at the first week, I'd think the system depth still needs an upgrade to seriously help the parent club on a regular basis. Hopefully guys like David DeJesus and others have good enough first halves to bring back more talent.

Kane County's Offense: The Cougars are a young-ish team at the plate. They are hitting for a high average. It is cold. It is very early. However, none of Trey Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Gioskar Amaya, or Marco Hernandez are above .250. Yeah, the weather is cold. Yeah, Quad City has a nice pitching staff. At some point, you need offense outside of your first baseman and catcher. I enjoy Hernandez' glove at short, but I'm starting to wonder if he can hit in weather below 40 degrees, which become important if he ever reaches Chicago.

On a 1-to-10 scale, the worry level on this being a really bad year system-wide is at about two. It's very early, but it's very bad so far.

Poll

What is your take on the first week in the Cubs system?

Wow. Tim can call it straight, as needed.

14 votes

Waaay too early. Right?

49 votes

Hopefully, some of those injured pitchers return soon.

7 votes

That was really bad.

7 votes

At least Daytona is hitting well.

3 votes

80 votes | Poll has closed

International Spending Numbers.. Clear As Seafood Bisque

Tim Huwe — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 15:22:07 -0000

International Spending Numbers.. Clear As Seafood Bisque

Perhaps I should save this for my draft bit, but the news is news now.

2013 MLB Draft Prep: Two Months To Go

Tim Huwe — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:11:05 -0000

One of the criticisms some people have about baseball is that it's so bo-o-o-o-oring. The truth is, I love a good nap. I was enjoying a couple games (pro and college) this weekend, and dozed off to both of them. There is no problem there. I tend to get sleep-deprived anyway.

My draft prep begins in, of all places, Geneva, Illinois. While the Kane County Cougars were being swept by Houston's Quad City River Bandits, it sounds like Houston has been doing its homework. Despite the Cougars' incoming notoriety for being young and talented, it sounds like Carlos Correa (first pick in last June's draft) was the best player on the field in the four-game series. 2012 second-rounder Karsten Whitson (whose contract was in no small part available due to the saving on Correa's selection) was very solid as well. The can of worms has already been opened, and I'm not specifically going there this time, but if two talents grade out really closely, there are certainly benefits to getting the cheaper one signed and in camp.

MLB Trade Rumors has the Cubs' short list at six. While I'm not sure that's accurate, it seems reasonable. Stanford's Mark Appel fanned seven and walked one USC Trojan over 8⅔ innings in a 4-2 win. Theo Epstein took in the game, apparently. I don't see Appel slipping to the third pick.

Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray 'struggled' against Texas in a 2-1 win over the Longhorns. Gray fanned only eight, walked two, and made 116 pitches into the seventh. I didn't notice any in-depth velocity numbers, but it's the first time in a while that Gray fanned fewer than 10. Someone will have to really impress to pass one of these two. Or, Appel or Gray could back-slide, which is why a wise team researches six deep for the second pick.

In the Friday game against Loyola Marymount (CA), San Diego's Kris Bryant singled in four tries, fanning twice as a DH in a 4-0 loss. I can't help but think the Cubs will get a pitcher from the West Coast Conference on how he pitched to Bryant. Scouting works like that.

The two Georgia prep outfielders, Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, are still probably pounding 80 mile per hour fastballs. As to who the sixth option would be, maybe Sean Manaea? He fanned nine, walking none in a solid six-inning performance on Sunday to get credit for Indiana State's 7-5 win over Wichita State. The Sycamores' bullpen went all Carlos Marmol in the ninth, but there was no word of a mystery jump ball call costing the Shockers in this game.

Matt Grabusky posted a mock draft recently with the Cubs grabbing Gray with 1.2, Marshall's Aaron Blair at 2.2 (Blair fanned 11 and walked one in a start against Houston this weekend. I'd be cool with that pick). In the mock, the Royals' competitive balance pick was D.J. Peterson. The third baseman from New Mexico had his 12th double and 12th homer Friday night against Air Force in a 11-5 win. Perhaps Commissioner Selig will be able to say, "We have a trade" from the podium. Nine of the competitive balance picks can still be traded. Pittsburgh, Miami, and Detroit have traded theirs already, so 35, 39, and 74 aren't available for trade. Maybe Cleveland might want something in June for pick 70.

This is a bit abbreviated again, but how many ways can you say, "Appel or Gray if they keep producing."

Poll

From the linked mock draft above, are there any names you like in the 41 range that I should research?

All of them. I expect full dossiers, back-stories, and red flags on the first 70 options there.

17 votes

Hollon and Harvey. Bring me high school flame-throwers.

12 votes

College arms. This re-build is gonna do me in.

20 votes

Austin Wilson is down to 47? Yikes.

6 votes

The prep catchers would fit well at 41.

7 votes

Best. Available. Always.

65 votes

127 votes | Poll has closed

Minor League Opening Night Thread

Tim Huwe — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 19:41:35 -0000

I've been waiting for tonight ever since Vancouver eliminated Boise in the Northwest League final game. All four full-season teams start play tonight, and Carlos Marmol won't relieve for any of them. I'm going to be monitoring the Daytona (High-A) game, where the D-Cubs host Milwaukee's Brevard County Manatees. Austin Reed gets the ball on opening day, opposed by lefty Jed Bradley.

In Geneva, the Kane County (Low-A) lineup has already been posted as Chen 7 Amaya 4 Vogelbach 3 Candelario 5 Shoulders 0 Hernandez 6 Contreras 2 Zapata 9 Martin 8 Johnson 1-RHP. Velasquez goes for Quad City, which is now in the Astros family.

The Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) travel to Pensacola, sending out Dallas Beeler, who will be opposed by Rogers.

The Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) send Chris Rusin to the hill to oppose Albuquerque's Fife. there may be some runs in that game, as that field is known for high-octane offense games.

All games are audio streamed for free on milb.com. Browse the schedule icon, or ask for help below.

Anything you can add from any games will be helpful, as it will be tough for any of us to keep in touch with all four games. The better these guys do, the quicker the parent club will have in-house replacements.

The parent club wins a road series, and four season openers tonight. Enjoy a game if you have some time, and be sure to visit Josh's update tonight. Still time to add the milbtv package, at forty for the season.

And my radar gun should arrive today. Yay, baseball.

The Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) travel to Pensacola, sending out Dallas Beeler, who will be opposed by Rogers.

The Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) send Chris Rusin to the hill to oppose Albuquerque's Fife. there may be some runs in that game, as that field is known for high-octane offense games.

All games are audio streamed for free on milb.com. Browse the schedule icon, or ask for help below.

And my radar gun should arrive today. Yay, baseball.

Poll

How likely are you to attend any minor league games this year?

None.

8 votes

Maybe a game or two.

23 votes

Already have tickets in hand.

5 votes

However many, it won't be enough.

3 votes

Any time the opportunity presents itself.

15 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

Cubs System Sonogram Introduces 'BigIvy'

Tim Huwe — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:08:18 -0000

I've thought a cool way to have a sports party (where everyone is cheering for the same team) would be to give everyone a player's name. You can cheer for whoever you want, but if you draw Edwin Jackson, and he pitches out of a bases loaded, none out situation without giving up a run, you'd better be really audible.

With that as a backdrop, here is how BigIvy, my Cubs minor league system database, will work. Any information I run into regarding Cubs prospects (defined very loosely) will be stored under that player's name. For instance, Thursday night, I plan to follow the Daytona Cubs (High-A in the Florida State League) game. If Javier Baez goes 0-for-4 facing only five pitches, I will note that. If Jorge Soler extends an at-bat ten pitches before grounding to third, I'll note that. If Zeke DeVoss one-hops the wall with a triple to right-center, I will note that.

Let's assume for a second that someone is listening to the Kane County Cougars (Low-A in the Midwest League) game. They are otherwise occupied much of the time, but they hear Trey Martin make a sensational catch in right-center, and he recovered to double a guy off of first. Since I'm listening to another game, and the 8-6-3 twin-killing merits being mentioned on Big/ivy, I want to know about it.

As I mentioned, my threshold for being a prospect is rather low. If a guy in the pipeline makes a play Cubs fans ought to know about, let me know. Add it to Josh's update as well, but keep me in the loop, as well. Information is knowledge, and I'm not going to be horribly choosy where my intel comes from.

BigIvy will be freely available for any Bleed Cubbie Blue contributor that wants access. However, I want a bit of proprietary control as well. If you want to check out my project, I'm all over Facebook, Twitter, and usually check my e-mail five times a day, at least. Round me up, and if I know you through BCB or another part of my life, I'll send you the four links. You'll be welcomed to use whatever you find there, though I would appreciate an occasional mention of Big/ivy, so people unaware wonder what it is.

Every participant will get a two character moniker. Keith Law, for instance, will be KL. Not that he will ever visit (though he might), but I want to give credit where due to all the contributors to BigIvy. (Yeah, one word; two capital letters.) Obviously, Al, Josh, and Erik will all get free passes, and if you chip in on BCB, even if we disagree at times, you're welcome to join. If you are a stranger to me in the real or virtual world, I would appreciate you representing your source if you post my stuff.

Find me wherever, send me an e-mail, PM, or whatever, and let me know what you want your characters to be. And yes &, #, and % are in play. If I have no idea who you are, but you really want to be included, tell me what happened in the game you were listening to last night. For instance, "The Fort Wayne announcer had Pierce Johnson at 93 MPH on his FB in the sixth inning" would be info that gets you included right away -- if he were pitching in the sixth inning, of course.

As this is the internet, some of the communicated info may be (gasp) wrong. That said, this is the best way I could think of to share Cubs system news with anyone who is interested.

Why would this be of importance? Assume, for a second, the Cubs call up a starting pitcher in late August. Maybe, just maybe, it's a guy you, or Al, aren't totally familiar with. For example, Barret Loux. You could ask Josh. You could do a google search. Then, you could check BigIvy. I will have notations for anything actionable I have heard that Loux has done all season, with most recent stuff at the top. BigIvy won't be for everyone, but if you've read this far, it might be for you.

Once a player passes the 30-inning or 50 at-bat major-league limits, I'm planning on stopping recording them. By that time, they should have enough general familiarity that anything else is unnecessary. Any help you can provide would be appreciated, as I can only do one game at a time.

By the way, for those nights when I'm out watching a game, I just bought a speed gun on eBay.

Poll

Of the four full-season minor league affiliates, how many will qualify for the post-season?

All four

6 votes

Three

19 votes

Two

45 votes

Only one

5 votes

None. (Playoffs? You're taikng about playoffs?

9 votes

84 votes | Poll has closed

2013 MLB Draft Prep: Pitchers Win Again

Tim Huwe — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 08:00:43 -0000

There have been a few arguments as to whether the Cubs should take a pitcher or a hitter in the first round in June. If the team opts to add a pitcher early, the guy they likely will take had a great week. Details:

Mark Appel struck out 10 while throwing 97 miles per hour in Stanford's 3-0 win over Washington State. His slider and change were considered plus on the evening in the 4 hit complete game. Over his last five starts, he has a 0.6 WHIP and a 0.64 ERA, fanning 10 or more in all five.

Jonathan Gray fanned 12, walked none, and surrendered but two hits to Kansas in a 12-1 win In his last four starts, Gray has pitched 34 innings, he has a 22-1 strikeout to walk ratio, has allowed 15 hits, and just two runs.

Kris Bryant hit his 13th homer on Thursday for San Diego, going 3-5 against #2 Oregon State in a 7-4 win.

Sean Manaea's Indiana State Sycamores lost 3-0 in a match-up with Missouri State's Nick Petree.

Tennessee prep righthander Jordan Sheffield was pulled from a recent start and is having his arm evaluated.

If you are looking for a mock draft, this should qualify.

****

It's time to play Choose Your Illusion. I'm going to paint a picture, giving you percentage chances and numerous options. You decide which of the five options provided comes closest to your preference. I don't care which one you choose. After we're done, I'll give you more options, and some of you get to choose again. However, the poll won't let us go there

One of my pet projects has been to float trading David DeJesus in late May. (Hey, you, over there. I see you rolling your eyes. No problem. I probably deserve it. But keep reading, nonetheless. There's an option in this for you as well.) This draft has, for the first time ever, a few swappable picks. Commissioner Selig has marched boldly into the 1970s, and deserves credit for his forward thinking. Kansas City has the first tradable pick, number 34 in the draft. Jarrod Dyson, Jeff Francoeur, and Lorenzo Cain are three of their four outfielders. DeJesus, who started his career with the Royals, might be a good fit in KC if they are in the hunt before the draft.

Here is the situation. When Theo Epstein rolls out of bed on May 27th, he will be looking forward to four successive games against the White Sox. As he grabs his cell phone, he notices Dayton Moore has left him a message. The Cubs are a few below .500, and sit at an eight percent chance of making the playoffs. DeJesus has been having a solid season, and is on a hot streak. Moore's Royals are in an early fight for AL Central supremacy.

After a few pleasantries, Moore wants to trade for DeJesus and a pitcher in the Cubs pipeline, along the Tayler Scott/Michael Jensen/Starling Peralta line. Moore is willing to part with a pitcher in Venezuela that Epstein likes, along with the 34th pick in the draft.

Dealing DeJesus and calling up Brian Bogusevic would drop the Cubs to a six percent post-season chance, with the understanding that Brett Jackson will be up (for good?) in mid-July. Three of the five options are visible now. Option one is make the trade as offered before Moore has a cup of coffee and changes his mind. Option two is make the trade, but only by leaving out the pitchers to KC (and the one coming from KC). This may nix the trade, but you can never tell. Option three is ride it out with the current roster, at least through the White Sox series.

Options four and five involve increasing the playoff likelihood. Instead of dealing with Moore, Epstein instead calls another GM with an offer of his own. Since he is on record as not wanting to trade himself out of contention, he offers two of the three aforementioned prospects to a team that has a mild glut of starting pitchers. Since the three are in the three or four percent likelihood of producing a 5+ WAR career, he is able to talk his way to sending two of them for a Jason Marquis/Chris Capuano-type pitcher. While they won't clinch anything, they will limit the likelihood to trot out Chris Rusin every five days in a pennant hunt. That would be option four.

Option five would be to up the ante a bit more, with maybe a Gioskar Amaya (who has a possibility of being a starting second baseman in the majors at some point). By adding Amaya to the two pitchers, Epstein can pull in a pitcher that is a legitimate fourth starter.

Option four bumps the playoff odds to 10 percent, the fifth one nudging it to 14. There you have the five options, and I have no preference which one you choose. Feel free to defend it, or not.

As promised, I will now add more information, with more odds. Assume, for argument's sake, there are three viable options for that No. 34 pick. If you selected option one or two, which of these three options would you want at 34? Choice one is a college pitcher from a major conference. He projects as a middle-of-the-rotation type, with a 20 percent chance of being like a slight downgrade from a Ted Lilly or Edwin Jackson. He could do slightly better. He probably will be a big leaguer, though, even if he is a solid eighth-inning reliever type, or a fourth or fifth starter.

Choice two is a high school catcher. The draft is deep on backstops, and the available one has an eight percent chance of being 'the guy'. I'll say the eight percent puts him somewhere between A.J. Pierzynski and Yadier Molina. As a catcher, there is a solid whiff potential, but he could exceed that window (in a very remote chance) or pull up short of those two and be Jody Davis for a decade ten more percent of the time.

Choice three is a prep arm. He has a 10 percent shot at being Jeff Samardzija, a two percent shot at being better, but a 40 percent chance of never getting major league per diem. Now, all of your options are before you. I think about all the variables are accounted for. What would you want Epstein to do on May 27th, given those basic odds?

****

Last, off-topic, but not least. Congrats to Fred Van Vleet, Wichita State point guard and graduate of my alma mater, on helping the Shockers to the Final Four. Rockford Auburn proud. Keep it up, and do better against Boeheim's zone than the other guys did.

Poll

In the aforementioned scenario, which best represents your trade philosophy?

Make the trade for the draft pick, even if you give up a pitcher.

38 votes

Only offer the trade if the pitchers are off the board.

24 votes

Don't make a trade, at least for now.

7 votes

Trade the pitchers for a fifth starter type.

0 votes

Sweeten the pot, and get a somewhat better pitcher.

13 votes

82 votes | Poll has closed

Cubs Add Moscoso

Tim Huwe — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 19:32:06 -0000

Cubs Add Moscoso

RHP from Toronto. Delete when this hits front page.

Cubs Linked To Venezuelan SS

Tim Huwe — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 18:52:38 -0000

Cubs Linked To Venezuelan SS

Gleyber Torres is his name. There will be a test.

What's In A Cubs Nickname?

Tim Huwe — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 12:38:04 -0000

When this ran originally, Al told me to run it again later in the spring. It's later, and it's spring, and there's another night game today. The rules are simple. Add a nickname to the list. Or debate the merits of one I've included. Be kind. That should do.

Albert Almora: Al Squared

Gioskar Amaya: Gioskar the Grouch (or anything that rolls like that).

Javier Baez: The Buzz, Javy, Money Badger

Darwin Barney: The Purple Evolutionist

Welington Castillo: Beeeeeeeeeeeef

Starlin Castro: (Apparently doesn't need one)

David DeJesus: DDJ, Kim's Husband

Pierce Johnson: Ouch, The Stud

Junior Lake: Senior Pond

Barret Loux: HC100 (Jason Brigham was traded for Loux Plus One, which is close to Haircut 100's only hit.)

Anthony Rizzo: Batso Rizzo, RizzOMG

Jeff Samardzija: Shark

Alfonso Soriano: Fonzie, Sori

Matt Szczur: Et Tu, Salad, Spellczech

Logan Watkins: Lo-Wat, Watty, Wolverine

Obviously, minor league players are in play. Have at it, and enjoy until the Cubs face the Royals Tuesday evening.

Poll

Tim has which of the following?

Too much time on his hands.

9 votes

Way too much time on his hands.

46 votes

Let us down by not giving a minor league update last week.

9 votes

Failed to include Jorge Soler in too many poll answers recently.

19 votes

Not run this short of an article in a long time.

8 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

2013 MLB Draft Prep: New Faces On The Board

Tim Huwe — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 20:06:45 -0000

A few draft notes before heading to today's main points:

Manny Ramirez's son is a high school senior. Since you'll insist, here is an article about him. I'd enjoy the Cubs taking a flier on him, but only because that would mean his character questions are limited.
A New York high school shortstop is being denied a chance to play.
Here is a list of 40 top college pitchers. Some of the names are rather unfamiliar. I'm content with who the front office selects, and I'll scrutinize them when I see them. It does, however, beg an interesting question. Should college arms be a bigger part of the 2013 draft? The Cubs selected a string of high school arms in 2012. While high school arms will be a part of any Theo Epstein draft class, is it time to rush the rebuild with college arms? A top-notch high school draftee in 2013 may well start 2014 in short season ball in Boise in June. A college veteran may already be in High-A Daytona by then. If you want a pitching draftee chipping in by 2016, he'd probably better be a college veteran.

Now, on to today's feature (spoken in a Hitchcockian verbal slant).

***

Leading up to this year's draft prep series, I've always said one thing that has turned out to be true. The priority list of players would change many times before draft day. That list will change many more times in the next two-and-change months. Whichever way you slice it, the Cubs are benefited very much by players vaulting to the top of the collective draft boards. Not only will the team catch the second pick in the first round, but the 39 others, as well.

The latest names to get prominently run up the flagpole are University of San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant and Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray. Both were well-known quantities in high school, so they aren't new to the 'being scouted' game. Bryant is a power hitter, Gray a hard-thrower. Bryant has hit 12 homers this season in just 73 at bats. That's also done with more realistic bats than the NCAA had been using a few years ago. A dozen homers is a very good season now -- Bryant is there in just over 20 games. I still doubt Bryant is the pick, as I don't think the Cubs brass buy his defense at third. If they select him, though, then obviously they do. They'd also have to like his character (makeup), conditioning, ability to play left if he has to go there, and answer any other questions. There won't be a Matt Bush at 1.2 (the notation used for the second pick in the first round). If there are questions about health, makeup, or anything else, Theo Epstein will turn the page, and go another way.

In Norman, Oklahoma, the Big Thing was supposed to be Dillon Overton this season. Overton is a lefty, and a good one. He gives up about a hit an inning, but fans roughly the same amount. His walks aren't a problem. Overton will make a nice pro, which isn't top say he'll be a lead-pipe cinch big leaguer, but he will do well through at least High-A ball. Overton was supposed to be the Sooners' Friday night guy, and started the season as such. However...

A couple weeks back, Gray's velocity started approaching, and hitting, triple digits. Now, it's routine for him to hit 100 on the gun. Not every fastball, mind you. He usually sits in the high nineties, with 97 being the default. Through six starts, Gray has pitched a tick under 45 innings. He's fanned 51, and walked just nine. His walk numbers are skewed by an early four-walk performance (over seven innings) before he 'figured things out'. In his most recent outing, he went nine innings, giving up two runs (one earned), one walk, and fanned his 12th and final hitter on a 97 mile per hour fastball. In the ninth inning.

I've seen two gurus place Gray right now in their top five. Of course, if he falls apart, that could drop. However, if he strikes out a dozen and walks one in the competitive Big 12, the difference between Gray and Stanford's Mark Appel gets really blurry.

***

So how does this help the Cubs? For whatever reasons, pitchers Ryne Stanek from Arkansas (wildness) and Sean Manaea from Indiana State (noted below) have fallen behind just a bit. When you're picking second, it's nice to have three-to-five options to cross-check for a few months. Not only has the brass been eyeballing the above-mentioned college players, Georgia prep outfielders Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier have been drawing rave reviews. Epstein and crew can take a very fine-toothed comb to each candidates name, and disqualify them on any uncertainties.

I've been a Manaea fan this draft run. I listened to him mow through the Minnesota squad, sounding all the time like a high pick. He will be. However, unless something changes, Manaea won't be the Cubs first selection. In the game I heard (small sample size alert), his pitching wasn't the problem. He seemed to be throwing in the mid-90's with ease. The problem was elsewhere. Minnesota bunted on him, rather successfully. He threw away a throw to first. He gave up a bunt hit this weekend.(in which Manaea went seven scoreless, fanning eight and walking two, earning the win). No, giving up bunt hits isn't a fatal flaw, but as the second pick, the competition becomes fierce.

I have no idea what the Astros will use for their strategy for the No. 1 pick. Will they draft best available? Are they going to undercut the slotting process to upgrade their later picks? Do they value Meadows or Frazier? Will the Cubs consider offering Bryant or Gray somewhat over third pick value for the opportunity to get selected second? Right now, I'm not even concerned. Epstein will select a player following in the Albert Almora vein: a solid base of skills, with the potential of being an MLB All-Star. With so many players excelling this season, the second pick will be in line to be very worthwhile as well.

If only David DeJesus can net the team Kansas City's competitive balance selection in the thirties as well.

Poll

Jeff Luhnow is Houston's GM. Who do you want him to avoid with the first pick?

Mark Appel

96 votes

Kris Bryant

9 votes

Clint Frazier

16 votes

Jonathan Gray

29 votes

Sean Manaea

13 votes

Austin Meadows

17 votes

I'm happy to see so many good options for 1.2

40 votes

220 votes | Poll has closed

OT?: Dierker To Leave Astros

Tim Huwe — Sat, 23 Mar 2013 16:16:08 -0000

OT?: Dierker To Leave Astros

Interesting story for a near-icon. I'm not seeing a role for Dierker in Chicago, but it's still interesting.

Baseball America On Players Receiving A Fourth Option

Tim Huwe — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 01:24:00 -0000

Baseball America On Players Receiving A Fourth Option

Dolis and Rondon on list, however Rondon is a Rule 5 exception to the exception. If he were optioned, he would become a free agent, as he has been optioned before.

An Eye-Opening Read on Mexican Amateur Baseball

Tim Huwe — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 15:23:55 -0000

An Eye-Opening Read on Mexican Amateur Baseball

Adrian Gonzalez' father is suing MLB and the Mexican LMB. Why?

Cubs Trade For Minor League OF/1B Dore

Tim Huwe — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 20:08:22 -0000

Cubs Trade For Minor League OF/1B Dore

My reading this post tripled my knowledge on this player. I think the trade was made to read our 'expert' commentary.

I don't want him to steal at bats from zygotes Jacob Rogers, Rock Shoulders, Paul Hoilman, Reggie Golden, or Shawon Dunston. But, we'll see.

2013 MLB Draft Prep Faces Showdown Week

Tim Huwe — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 17:33:14 -0000

I really wanted to listen to baseball Thursday night. While certainly not the headliner of the weekend, Notre Dame at Cal Poly was a meeting of Top 25 teams, so I went with it. Cal Poly won 6-3 in a game that was defensively sloppy early, and pitching dominated late. Joey Wagman is a pitcher I'm unfamiliar with, but would be happy if the Cubs reel in anywhere after the top eight rounds. His hometown announcer noted Wagman has fanned at least seven in each start this year. No velocity numbers were being quoted, but the Irish are a legitimate squad, and striking out a dozen is impressive.

One reason I like to check in on Irish baseball these days is their third baseman, Eric Jagielo (pronounced ja-GUY-low). Jagielo was a Cubs 50th (and final) round pick in 2010. I have no idea how solid Jagielo's commitment was to South Bend, but he was the last selection before ownership opened the vault for the 2011 draft. Jagielo will be drafted in 2013. I haven't run it by experts, but as a player ranked eighth in the Big East for prospect status (according to the broadcast), I could see him going in the fifth or sixth round this season. He will make someone a nice third baseman to run through their system. And he wasn't wearing a lime-green uniform Thursday night, either.

The big news of the week was the matchup between prep prospects Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier. Frazier's side won the game 14-4, and Frazier won the sideshow by smashing two homers. While I'll probably be fine with Frazier, Indiana State lefty pitcher Sean Manaea, or Stanford's right-handed ace Mark Appel, I'm glad the Cubs get the second choice.

***

Manaea faced Minnesota's Tom Windle on Friday. I think the Cubs' scouts had their radar guns in tow, but the Metrodome didn't have velocities posted. Windle pitched a nine-inning no-hitter last time out, and it was a fun listen. Nobody was making solid contact, as both hurlers were spotting their pitches really well. I didn't keep a scorebook, but Manaea and Windle would both look awfully good in the system. Windle won't last until the second round, and Manaea might be the odd-man-out at the second slot.

It was really a fun listen, and I wrote that in the third inning. Manaea's change-up is a work in progress. His defense is a bit less-than-preferred, and for a lefty, his pick-off move is rather generic. He was spotting his pitches where he wanted them all night long. Minnesota's offense isn't all that good, Indiana State won 2-1, and both hurlers threw complete games. I would be happy with Windle in the second round. Manaea fanned nine and walked one, scattering six hits, most of which came late.

***

Stanford didn't play this weekend, so news on Appel is in a holding pattern. It seemed odd to me to have a scheduled off spot here, but I'm sure the squad found something to do in Palo Alto.

***

Now, a bit about the Fighting Illini baseball team. In 2011, they had a nice post-season run, making the regional final (last 32 teams, in effect). In 2012, their pitching took a step back, and they struggled mightily. This season, they continued to add decent-sounding arms. after a slow start, they have rebounded winning 10 of 11, to go to an 11-4 mark. The streak includes a sweep in Waco against Baylor.

As far as draft prospects, quite a bit of Illinois' hitting talent would feel right at home in short season ball or in the Midwest League. Few of them would be able to advance to High-A Daytona in the Florida State League. The key, as usual, is pitching. Kevin Johnson is an Illini senior who will, next week, become the fourth ever school pitcher to amass 300 innings pitched. Johnson profiles as an eighth-to-10th rounder in 2013 after not signing when the Yankees chose him late last draft.

Numbers tend to be sketchy on Big Ten baseball, as scouts tend toward following more well-storied programs, but the Baylor radio crew said Johnson was throwing 93 miles per hour. While Johnson, a senior, is the Friday night 'ace', Nick Blackburn, Kevin Duchene, and John Kravetz are all potential future MLB draftees. I'd rather watch an Illinois baseball game than one of the basketball or football team, as the baseball team seems more team-oriented than the other squads.

***

A touch light on content this time, as working and ballgames kept me occupied. New Mexico's DJ Peterson and Kris Bryant from San Diego mashed again, and here is a nice piece on the name pitchers this weekend. The draft now stands just three months away.

Poll

With the second pick, who do you want the Cubs to draft

Mark Appel

44 votes

Clint Frazier

13 votes

Sean Manaea

10 votes

Any of the above

3 votes

I trust the people in charge, whichever direction they choose.

18 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

Cubs System Sonogram: Rotation Vexation

Tim Huwe — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 20:31:13 -0000

On Monday, someone Tweeted a question regarding the Cubs minor league rotations for 2013. They didn't ask me, but that doesn't usually stop me from answering. I figured I had some hunches, and it felt like I could learn my blind spots from trying. It went fairly well.

Triple-A Iowa Cubs: It looks like the starters in Iowa are as set in stone as anywhere. Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Barrett Loux, Alberto Cabrera, and Nick Struck ought to get the ball every fifth day. I'm comfortable projecting those five in Iowa.

Double-A Tennessee Smokies: Paul Jokisch is a lefty from Northwestern. His radar numbers aren't especially exciting, but had a Double-A WHIP just over one. As players get called up, Jokisch might be the first to visit Triple-A Iowa. Dae-Eun Rhee is from Korea, and started 26 times in Tennessee in 2012. Rhee's numbers aren't Jokisch-good, but he deserves a repeat try in the Southern League. Dallas Beeler started 27 times in Tennessee last season, with somewhat ordinary numbers. 2013 would be Beeler's third try in the Southern League. Robert Whitenack had zoomed to Tennessee in 2011 before needing Tommy John surgery. After a season rehabbing in High-A Daytona, I see Whitenack (who is on the Cubs 40 Man roster) in Tennessee. Austin Kirk might well round out the Smokies rotation. Kirk had four starts at the end of 2012 in the Southern League. He went 2-0, 3.09, which would indicate Kirk might get another try in Tennessee. Last but not least, Kyle Hendricks came over from Texas in the Ryan Dempster trade. He will oust one of the above in this race.

High-A Daytona Cubs: In the Florida State League, the starting rotation ends up being larger than five. Some pitchers will start every five days. Some will 'piggy-back' with another pitcher, with both going about four innings. I will lead off the D-Cubs rotation with Pierce Johnson, a 2012 first-round supplemental pick, drafted as compensation for Aramis Ramirez. Johnson has a three pitch mix, with a 93 mile per hour fastball, a breaking ball, and a change. When pitchers start getting moved up, look for Johnson to climb the ladder.

As Starling Peralta has been returned from the Arizona Diamondbacks in Rule 5 chicanery, he will be in line to start in Daytona. Juan Carlos Paniagua ought to start in High-A Daytona or Low-A Kane County. I'll place him here, though he may not yet be in camp, possibly due to proof of identity issues. Michael Jensen was Peoria's best starter last season, and belongs in High-A. Jose Rosario was leading the Midwest League in strikeouts in 2012 until he was shut down due to injury. If healthy, Rosario belongs in the Florida State League. Marcelo Carreno was the PTBNL for Jeff Baker, and figures to jump to Daytona when healthy. Some holdovers from last season's squad might be Frank del Valle, P.J. Francescon, and Matt Loosen.

Low-A Kane County Cougars: Three Boise Hawks from 2012 look to jump to the newest Cubs affiliate in Kane County. Jose Arias, Tayler Scott, and Felix Pena look to start, or at least piggy-back, for the Cougars. One or two of the projected Daytona Cubs may initially start here. 2012 fourth round selection Josh Conway figures to start in the Midwest League, as may a few later-round 2012 selections that perform well in March in Mesa. Ben Wells figures to get more innings this season, as might Zach Cates if he is throwing strikes. Dillon Maples may start here this season, or he may come to Geneva, Illinois in the middle of the season.

I'm confident I'll miss on a few, but there is a ballpark guess.

***

Here's the Three Up/Three Down section, where I mention which prospects are doing well, and which ones are having difficulties.

Three Up

1. Javier Baez and Jorge Soler. As much as I had looked forward to listening to them this spring, they have exceeded my hopes. They make bad swings on off-speed stuff, and Baez hopefully will learn that if he takes the first pitch, he will be given another afterward. I saw Baez botch three routine grounders in a game last season, but he's been better with the glove so far in 2013. Soler has the basics down better than many big league Cubs of the past decades, and he hasn't reached High-A Daytona yet. I'm very much enjoying their progress.

2. Hector Rondon. As per my rules, he is a prospect until he gets to 30 innings, and I expect he will carry the pink backpack of sugar in Pittsburgh. (The reliever with the least MLB seniority carries the pink backpack filled with sunflower seeds and other snacks out to the bullpen, in a case of gentle hazing.) That Al thinks he even (gasp) belongs is a reason for his inclusion.

3. Dan Vogelbach. Not only did his two pre-season trips both last six pitches at least (walk and a strikeout), he's also taking grounders at third. I'll see him in Beloit in April.

Three Down

1. The aforementioned Triple-A Iowa rotation. While Chris Rusin might challenge for a bullpen spot due to his solid spring, the other four have been hit fairly hard. My hopes to watch Iowa games the day after rests on the games being worth the watch. If the starter isn't surviving the third inning in the Pacific Coast League, I might only watch the hitters in I-Cubs games.

2. Junior Lake is injured. He broke a rib, and will be back in late April or early May. Injuries will be a sad feature of Three Down. He replaces Dillon Maples, who was reported as injured, then pitched the next day.

3. Logan Watkins. The Cubs' 2012 hitter of the year in the minors hasn't done much in spring training yet. Historically, he has started slow, and that trend continues.

4. Albert Almora. This article was completed when the Twitterverse broke over Almora's broken hamate bone, so there's a fourth to add to the "three down". Dustin Geiger had the same procedure, and the same doctor, last season. He rebounded with 17 homers after returning. Yes, I will update Almora's recovery.

Poll

Which full-season affiliate will have the best pitching staff in 2013?

Triple-A Iowa Cubs

16 votes

Double-A Tennessee Smokies

27 votes

High-A Daytona Cubs

22 votes

Low-A Kane County Cougars

7 votes

To be honest, I'm more interested in the hitters.

23 votes

95 votes | Poll has closed

Starling Peralta Is Baaaaack

Tim Huwe — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 14:46:59 -0000

Starling Peralta Is Baaaaack

I think this roster move melted down my BCB access. As per league rules, he is assigned to Iowa, though he will eventually return to Daytona.