SB Nation User Blog: Tim J

A's Spring Training- help me plan my bachelor party

Tim J — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:11:33 -0000

I've never been to Spring Training.

I've also never been married.

In 2009 I'm going to knock both of those things off my To Do list and I'm here at AN to see if some of you can offer some helpful advice on the former, although if you've got some tips on the latter I'll read those too :).

The basic game plan should look something like this: heading down for the final weekend of ST to catch Friday and Sunday's games. There will likely be somewhere from 15 to 20 people who make it out there. A few of us may or may not rent an RV to drive down there, leaving the bay area a couple days early.

My questions are:

Where should we stay? I'm only planning on going to the 2 A's games at Phoenix Muni on Friday/Sunday and then golfing on Saturday. Are there any places available to rent that are close by? Would people recommend getting a house/condo or finding hotels? Is there a chance to get something within walking distance or will we need to sort out car rentals and designated drivers? What are the chances that if I park a RV on the street in front of whatever house we end up renting that this is actually legal?

Really any advice that anyone has to offer on the subject is appreciated.

Thanks

Garza, fantasy question

Tim J — Tue, 08 May 2007 18:43:58 -0000

First off, league details:
6x6 Rot., deep keeper (12 teams, 25 person rosters, keep 12 each year- no restrictions).

Trade offer:
Rich Hill for Johnny Damon.

At the moment I've got Mike Mussina on the DL and am looking to bring him off, but need to drop a player in order to do that.

If I don't make the trade, the player will be Matt Garza, who I've been keeping on my roster all season.

If I do make the trade, the player will be Brian Giles, who will get replaced by Damon.

My pitching is fairly solid, with a number of above average starters off to good starts:
Webb, Gorzellany, Capuano, Gaudin, Hill, R. Johnson, Moose, Lilly

My outfield is OK, but a little soft:
Dunn, Francouer, Giles, Taveras, Hamilton

I'm completely torn on this and would appreciate any opinions.

ALDS: breaking down the coin flip

Tim J — Wed, 27 Sep 2006 17:49:31 -0000

I spent a little time breaking down the odds for the ALDS and thought I'd share. I'll post the links to the ref. materials after a brief explanation and then I'll dump the results.

As the backbone of the system I chose BP's ELO rankings. I think it's a great system, captures margin of victory and all that good stuff. Plus it does a much better job of capturing things like injury trends and the big MO than the raw, component stat rankings do. Basically, it has more predictive value than any other system I've seen out there so I'm using it as the baseline.

For the rankings you can check out BP here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddselo.php
For some info on ELO and the math behind single-game probs you can go here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
Finally, for a look at the way those single-game probs translate into series probs you can go here:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

And now the results:

BP ELO rankings of AL playoff squads:

1570 Twins
1569 Yankees
1556 A's
1546 Tigers

Likely playoff breakdowns:

73%:
NYY hosts MIN
DET hosts OAK

27%:
NYY hosts DET
MIN hosts OAK

ELO-based % chance that the A's will win a given game against a
possible first-round opponent (independant of starter, home field
etc.):
DET: 51.4
MIN: 48.0

resultant probablility of a series victory based on the single-game
prob, using a +4.2% modifier for the hometeam:

DET: 52.9%
MIN: 46.6%

-in other words, the playoffs are a crapshoot... and go Tigers.

Facts about Billy Beane

Tim J — Wed, 18 Jan 2006 18:30:18 -0000

This thread is based on an email chain that's been flying around the internet for months now (about Chuck Norris). Hero worship regarding Billy Beane is nothing new on this site. Now it's time to have a little fun with it... feel free to play along.

The chief export of Billy Beane is wins

Billy Beane could assemble a division winner with $10 and a rack of PBR

Billy Beane doesn't "draft" players. He "blesses" them.

Billy Bean's tears cure cancer. Too bad he has never cried.

Billy Beane would have traded for Babe Ruth and prospects.

Billy Beane can divide by 0.

Billy Beane sold his soul to the devil for his rugged good looks and unparalleled General Manager ability. Shortly after the transaction was finalized, Billy tricked the devil into trading him his soul back in exchange for Mark Teahan and Carlos Pena. The devil, who appreciates irony, couldn't stay mad and admitted he should have seen it coming. They now play poker every second Wednesday of the month.

Eric Byrnes is Billy Beane's inner child come to life.

Billy Beane's favorite color is "Opposing GM Red" (the color of any GM's face mid season following a trade with Beane).

If Billy Beane had negotiated the Louisiana Purchase he would have received the French territory of Lousiniana, the French Riviera, and the rights to French toast and French fries.

Q: In a fight between God and Beane, who would win?
A: Trick Question: Beane is God

In grade school Billy Beane once traded Brian Sabean a bag of brussel sprouts for the rights to his next 5 lunches after convincing Sabean to adopt an "eat now" philosophy.

If Beane were in Abe Lincoln's shoes, John Wilkes Booth would have given him his wallet, the deed to his house, and then turned himself in.

In 1975, a sexually frustrated Billy Beane molested a cup of New England Clam Chowder. 9 months later, Theo Epstein was born.

Billy Beane has purposefully thrown the last 4 playoff series in order to buy him time to stockpile all the crow he plans to serve to his nay-sayers.

Billy Beane would agree this joke is getting old... but would have fun with it anyway.

Spring Training

Tim J — Tue, 21 Dec 2004 22:16:25 -0000

With the major roster overhaul this off-season I think this is a great year to spend some early spring, late winter time in Phoenix.
While discussing the trades, mourning the loss of a couple favorite characters, and generally engaging in grandiose drunken scheming my friends and I decided we wanted to plan a RV trip to spring training. None of us have ever been, though, so I thought I'd put a post up here to collect thoughts from anyone who's been before.

I'd like to turn this diary thread into an open forum on thoughts about what to do at spring training in general, but here are some specific questions I've got:
-anyone tried this before?
-RV parking around Phoenix and by the stadium in particular- easy or impossible?
-good spots to eat/drink around town?
-other travel/lodging ideas that you've used before?
-tickets to the games: pre-order over the internet or get them once we get there?
-any other helpful hints you might have