Thirteen games tonight, two on national TV (Grizzlies/Nets NBA TV, Trail Blazers/Warriors ESPN). Unfortunately, the nationally televised games are not the best on the schedule, so I hope you have League Pass or other access.

At 6:00, two of the better teams in the East square off, with the 76ers visiting the Magic. Also, the Spurs visit the Raptors, and the Spurs are on a bit of a tear during their rodeo trip. They've won eight in a row and four out of four on this long road trip.

At 6:30 the Pistons visit the Celtics. Bulls fans can hope the Pistons give the Celtics a good game and tire them out before tomorrow's game in Chicago. The Pacers come off a blowout loss at home against the Heat and look for revenge against the Cavaliers, but according to reports the Cavs will have Kyle Irving back while the Pacers may be without Granger, and the game is in Cleveland. The Kings will visit the Knicks and face the Linsanity phenomenon. The Grizzlies will visit the Nets -- not the game I would have picked for NBA TV, but there it is.

At 7:00 you can pick from Bobcats visiting Timberwolves (how strange it must be for the T-wolves to be prohibitive favorites) or the Hornets at the Bucks (meh), or the Thunder at the Rockets, which may be a good game, since the Rockets are 10-3 at home.

At 7:30 we have two of the better teams in the West, the Nuggets at the Mavericks. The Mavs may have finally recovered from their championship hangover, and the Nuggets are not as good away from home. At 8:00 we have the Hawks visiting the Suns -- I always enjoy watching Steve Nash defy age and lack of hops and this may be competitive since the Suns are at home.

At 9:00 it's the second nationally-televised game, the Trail Blazers, without LeMarcus Aldridge, visiting the Warriors, who have played well lately at home. Finally at 9:30 it's the Wizards, fresh off two surprising blow-out road victories, at the Clippers.

So, lots of reasons to watch tonight. I will leave you with a poll.

No nationally televised games tonight unless you have NBA TV or League Pass. There are five games, three early, two late. NBA TV is televising Cleveland at Miami and Memphis at Portland. I don't expect the Cavaliers to test Miami, especially since the Heat will be well rested and ready to show that the Milwaukee win was a fluke. I do think the Memphis/Portland game could be great. The Grizzlies are on a winning streak and the Trail Blazers are coming off a disappointing road trip, but Portland has a great record at home.

The game that interests me most is Orlando at Indianapolis. The Magic played horribly in Boston yesterday, but that is likely a fluke. I would hope they can give the Pacers a good game in triple overtime to tire them out before the Pacers come to Chicago tomorrow night. Like a lot of people, I haven't been watching the Pacers, so I was startled to see they are in second place in the East. They don't have any superstars but they have a deep roster of mostly above average players.

In other news, New York visits Charlotte and is playing badly enough to lose to the Bobcats, so that might be of interest to Knicks haters. Also, the Toronto Raptors visit the Phoenix Suns in a game that would only capture my interest because I always marvel at Steve Nash.

Only three games tonight, and I doubt anyone is excited about the Hornets at the Rockets. But the other two games are nationally televised on TNT, and the Lakers at the Heat could be a classic, especially since the Lakers are relatively healthy and the Heat are without Dwayne Wade. I'm always interested in watching the Heat these days, just to think about how the Bulls can beat them. They beat the Spurs with defense and three-point shooting from James and Miller; let's see if the latter proves to be fool's gold. The Mavericks at the Jazz could also be good, since the Jazz always have a high-altitude home court advantage and the Mavericks are off to a slow start. Unfortunately, we also have to sit through Shaq sabotaging what was the best NBA coverage on TV, but at least we can continue to mock him, and maybe he won't be back next year. I can't believe I'm saying this, but let's go Lakers!

ESPN has the Trailblazers at the Hawks followed by the Mavericks at the Clippers. But if you have access to other games, there's more! The Spurs try to bounce back from their loss to the Heat and beat the Magic in Orlando. I may be most excited to see the Nuggets in Philadelphia, giving the surprising 76ers a real test (the first of three test games for the 76ers, with the Hawks visiting on Friday and the Heat visiting on Saturday).

The Thunder should slaughter the Wizards even if they are on the road, but by how much? If the Celtics have trouble with the Raptors in Boston or the Knicks have trouble with the Suns in New York, and they might, that's a problem for the Celtics and Knicks and makes the 76ers' road even easier. In other news, the Grizzlies play the Hornets in New Orleans, the Pistons play the Timberwolves (Rubio! Love!) in Minnesota, and the Pacers play the Kings in Sacramento. With eleven games on the slate, and some good matchups, it should be a fun night to watch the competition and hope Rose heals quickly.

Just for the fun of it, here's a poll after the jump:

In this article Nick Friedell tries to predict all the wins and losses, and forecasts a 49-17 record, which is equivalent to 61 wins in an 82 game schedule. I know the Bulls have to lose some games, but there are no games on the schedule where they are obvious underdogs, except perhaps when they visit Miami (twice) and Oklahoma City (once). The shortened schedule means more games against the dogs in the East and more benefit from a young, deep roster that knows each other and their coach. Plus, everyone's healthy, Rose is still improving, and Hamilton is better than Bogans. Also, Miami will be better this year, and will push the Bulls to strive for home court advantage in the playoffs. My expectations are high. I'm confident that they will better last year's winning percentage by winning 51 games or more.

Especially if the season is shortened, maybe a veteran player would sign for the minimum for the chance to win a championship.  The Bulls would be competing with Miami for such players, but the Bulls do have something to offer, especially to players who are not point guards or centers.  So which of the following veteran players would you choose to sign for the minimum, if you had your choice?  Or do you have a better way to spend the same money?

Let's say that New Orleans wants to get something for Chris Paul, and that Paul would be willing to sign an extension with the Bulls.  Would you trade Rose for Paul? 

I frankly don't know if this would work because Rose is still on his rookie contract.  The Bulls would have to toss some other players in there to make the trade work, and maybe that's a good reason not to do it.  But let's set that aside for the moment and just assume, theoretically, that the trade was essentially Rose for Paul, with filler that the Bulls could afford to give up.  Would you do it?

I don't know if this will sway anyone's opinion, or which way it will sway it, but I got this idea from a poll on the Celtics Blog.  Right now, at least, a substantial majority of Celtics fans would willingly trade Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul.

Will James bounce back from his eight-point effort in game 4?  The American public may hate him, but they are also tuning in to see what happens next.  But this is an important game for Dallas as well; their last home-court game in what is now a best of three series.

If you haven't been following Sebastian Pruiti's analysis at NBA Playbook, why not?  It's almost better than watching the game -- well, not quite, but it's like being with the team when the coach reviews film.  He shows a couple of adjustments by Dallas that worked wonders -- use Nowitzki as a decoy while someone else sets the screen for the pick and roll, or continue using the double screen that confuses Miami.  And he shows James running away from the basket or passing the ball unwisely on the pick and roll, as well as what happens when James instead drives towards the basket or at least threatens to do so. 

As Pruiti shows, James being more aggressive is not just about shooting the ball more, nor is it about shooting out of double teams -- it's about moving towards the basket or threatening to do so, so that not only drives but also passes and outside shooting become more effective.  If James wants to facilitate or shoot from outside effectively, he must still force the other team to take him seriously as a threat to drive.  It's when the other team is worried about him driving that he can effectively pass or pull up for a jumper.  And in game 4 it wasn't great defense that stopped LeBron from driving, it was LeBron being passive, turning down opportunities to drive.

Why would LeBron do this?  We may never know.  But it is the reason he can be the best player in the league and still be a disappointment.  Of course, if the Heat had lost to the Bulls maybe Wade would be the goat.  And if the Heat win the series maybe people will forget about LeBron's disappearing act.  But if Dallas wins, LeBron may never live it down.  And even if Dallas loses, people will remember this crack in LeBron's armor.  Play him hard enough, and he may disappear.  It gives competitors -- like the Bulls -- hope.

Is this fair to James?  Perhaps not.  After all, Rose kind of pulled a disappearing act of his own in the ECF, as did Wade in a couple of games.  Jason Terry's had some bad games in the Finals.  But MVP or no MVP, James is held to a different standard.  He has all the athletic tools to be better than Jordan, so he's not allowed to disappear -- ever.

All that being said, the Heat still have been ahead during much of this series.  When they lose to the Mavs, they look like the better athletes getting beat by the better team -- and then just barely.  The series is tied 2-2.  The Heat have three more games with two at home.  They are still the favorites.  Will they be able to adjust?  Will James just come out on fire?  Will the Mavs continue to confuse them?  I'm eager to see what happens.

What adjustments will the Mavs make?  Will they stop playing Peja Stojakovic?  Will they stop doubling Dwyane Wade and LeBron James in the post?  Will Brendan Haywood play?  Will it do any good?  Although the Heat look like they could easily be up 3-0, the last game was very close, and it is tough to win three straight on the road in the Finals.

On a different note, Wade has been a new man in this series.  Did the Bulls just defend him better, or was there something wrong with him that they wouldn't talk about?  And if there was something wrong with him, does that mean maybe there was something wrong with Boozer that they wouldn't talk about?

Okay, I hope that's enough words.  If not, I'll have to start talking about Bulls' potential trades or free agent signings or draft prospects, and I really want to leave that to the other posts, since soon that is all we will talk about for months.

For those of you still following along, the series is starting to get exciting.  Or, to put it another way, in game 2 shit got real.

For those who want a more nuanced explanation of what happened in the last seven minutes of game 2, I highly recommend Sebastian Pruiti's analysis of the Mavs' double screen and Coach Nick's analysis of the Heat's many mistakes.  The Mavs did something right that the Heat couldn't stop; meanwhile, the Heat couldn't do anything right. 

Thing is, even if the Heat choked, the Mavs could also play so much better.  Up until the last seven minutes game 2 was mostly notable for all the Mavs' unforced errors.  These look like two highly-talented teams with mostly veteran talent who nevertheless can get nervous and make boneheaded mistakes under pressure.

In light of that, it's important for the Mavs to win at home, where they should feel more comfortable.  On the other hand, in the 2-3-2 format, it's a challenge to win three straight at home to close out the series.  I know many hope they can, but I'm still hoping for a seven-game classic.  And I'm hoping that both teams get over their nerves and play their best basketball.

Of course, the better the Mavs do the more I question what the Bulls did, or could have done.  But we have all summer (and maybe fall and winter) to do that.  Right now there is still basketball being played, and I, for one, plan to watch (although I may watch on Tivo).

Anybody still watching?  I know everybody expects Miami to win, but Miami's offense didn't look that great for the first three quarters in game one.  If Dallas can start hitting wide open shots and layups, they could steal home court advantage.  Well, it's possible.

At Second City Hockey they've been handing out grades to the Blackhawks players since Vancouver knocked them out of the first round.  I think most of the Bulls deserve "A"s for their body of work this year.  Maybe Boozer gets knocked down because he fell short of expectations.  And of course no one looked good in the Eastern Conference Finals, including the coach.  But over the whole of the season?  I would be generous with the "A"s.  Although perhaps it would be more accurate to say "Exceeds Expectations," since I'm not saying everyone performed the same.

What's more, I judge that Gar/Pax exceeded expectations as well.  Will Reinsdorf open up his wallet?  Will there be anything he can buy?  We can only speculate for now.

Okay, that's enough words.

Okay, I think I'm over the Bulls' collapse.  I'm not rooting for or against anyone in the Finals yet, although I know most of you are rooting for the Mavs. 

SB Nation has been doing itself proud previewing the Finals.  I did enjoy this Andrew Sharp article reminding us why we hate the Heat, and I enjoyed disputing this Tom Ziller article taking the Devil's advocate point of view that we should hate Mark Cuban (as well as the side conversation in the comments about Cuban vs. Reinsdorf).  I also enjoyed this Sebastian Pruiti article for SB Nation breaking down the offensive sets for both teams in the Finals.  (Warning: includes video of the Bulls' defense breaking down against actual offensive sets.  Could be painful.)

I'll also give a shout out to Coach Nick for his video preview of the NBA Finals.

Although the Mavs are underdogs, there are some pundits who pick them, especially if Wade continues to suffer from his mystery injury.  The Mavs clearly have a better offense than the Bulls, but do they have enough defense to slow down the Heat?  There's the old question about the bench play -- will Miller and Haslem shine off the bench for the Heat, or will the Heat bench revert to its regular season mediocrity?  I would say both of these teams are more complete and far more experienced than the young, defense-oriented Bulls, but I'm not sure if the Mavs are actually better than the Heat or the Bulls.  That experience does seem important, though, and I hope the veterans on the Mavs will not lose their cool.

I know it probably sounds wishy-washy, but I'm genuinely hoping for great basketball from both teams.  But I understand the hate for the Heat, really I do.  Maybe the Mavs will show the Bulls how it is done.