SB Nation User Blog: TimSchultz36

Gamechanger: Austin in 09 is like Romo in 06...

TimSchultz36 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:48:50 -0000

Remember where our team was headed before Tony got rolling vs. Carolina in 2006? Remember where our team was headed before Austin got rolling in Kansas City in 2009? The parallels are eerie, and there are reasons for optimism that the success will be sustained.

1) Just as Romo changed the team’s fortunes by dramatically upgrading a key position in early ’06, Austin might well do the same in ’09.

Our Wide Receiver corps (pre-Austin breakout) reminds me a lot of our QB play with Bledsoe. It was OK in some games, but never playoff caliber, and had weaknesses (lack of explosiveness) that were magnified by top competition. Remember the pre-heart throb Romo in ’06? His girlfriend had just broken up with him, and he was just a goofy kid with a huge “aw shucks” grin…kind of like Austin’s grin after every play now. Both were un-drafted free agents with a few years in the league, both had shown flashed of promise meriting a slight pay raise in the offseason, both were (initially) Parcells favorites, and both broke out right as the team was headed for a 7-9 season. You watch: Austin is a handsome guy with bad teeth. If he goes to the Pro Bowl, he’ll get his teeth fixed and start dating actresses.

2) Wide Receivers who Break Out in their 4th year and stay good are quite common.

Look at the career arcs of great receivers in our era, and there’s a similar pattern: the first “breakout year” is either Year 4 or Age 25. Part of the reason Jerry doesn’t like drafting WR’s high is because, unlike RB’s, they usually don’t star until their 4th year. Marvin Harrison didn’t have his first 1,000 yard season until year 4. Same for Michael Irvin and Reggie Wayne. T.O. broke out in Year 3, when he was 25. Rod Smith and Donald Driver, the two small school guys to whom we might compare Austin, also didn’t break out until their fourth year. Other than the true super-freaks (Moss, Galloway, Glenn, DeSean Jackson) who can “out athlete” even NFL corners, it takes about 3-4 years for athleticism and skill to come together for NFL wide outs.

3) Austin has the rare ability to make plays even when “covered.”

Austin’s TD against Tampa and his 2nd TD this week were on back shoulder throws where Austin wasn’t wide open. Tony’s confidence to make those throws is something he has with only one other receiving target (Witten). If you watch the slow motion replays of some of his catches, Austin is excelling at the hand fighting and subtle body movements that happen at the top of routes. Then, he’s not only making the catch, he’s immediately able to make a “football move” and get up field. In playoff football, and against higher level defenses, receivers will rarely get huge separation. That’s why TO (who relied on getting big separation to compensate for so-so ball skills) mostly underperformed in his career in playoff football, and guys like Irvin and Fitzgerald were their same bad selves. Not that Austin is in the Irvin-Fitz category, and he’ll likely never be as good as TO at his peak, but he has qualities that augur well for when he faces elite defenses.

4) Austin runs the 10 yard dash incredibly quickly and powerfully.

I don’t know what Austin’s 40 time would be these days, but what he does in the first few steps after the catch demonstrates why 40 times don’t tell the full truth about a receiver’s big play abilities. Some receivers (TO, Rice) come out of their breaks so quickly that they always seem to slip the first tackle. It seems like every time Austin catches the ball, he’s slipping out of a tackle. That’s not a coincidence, it’s a rare ability, and Austin seems to have it.

Wade sucks…but firing him doesn't solve the real problem

TimSchultz36 — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:06:33 -0000

For anyone who thinks Wade is an adequate HC, I ask you: even if Wade were 7 years younger, would any NFL team now hire him as a head coach if he were on the open market? Obviously no. I’m not even sure Wade is a good coordinator in the absence of a HC who creates a disciplined organizational culture. I don’t hate on Wade for the aesthetic reasons that some do (Tony Sparano and Rex Ryan are also fat, and I’d much prefer them as coaches.) And I even think Wade’s firing might (marginally) improve our chances this season. So why in the hell am I rooting for him to finish the season? Read on…

1) Wade’s fecklessness as a coach is symptomatic of a broken organizational culture that can’t be righted by his firing. Fact: the Dallas Cowboys coach is the NFL equivalent of the Governor of Texas. Both positions lack institutional powers that others in their positions do have. Wade didn’t hire (and can’t fire) his own coordinators; in fact, one of them was hired before him! When Wade is cagey about whether Austin will start or just “play more,” does anyone doubt that it’s not really his decision, but rather some combination of Jason and Jerry’s? When Jerry publicly exonerates Alan Ball for his Leodis McKelvin-esque stupid play, is there any room for Wade to even privately tell the team “stupid penalties like this will not be tolerated”?

2) Not even the 1992 version of Jimmy Johnson could instill organizational discipline with the constraints Wade has. And Wade is no Jimmy Johnson. Look, the players all know what we know. The real power in the building isn’t Wade, who has to ask the GM permission to fine a player for crying out loud. Were Jerry a Steinbrenner-level tyrant, discipline instilled from the owner’s box might just work. But Jerry is no Steinbrenner. Wade’s nice guy personality exacerbates this problem, certainly. But the institutional constraints on the Cowboys’ coach virtually guarantee that only a go-along personality like Wade would accept the job in the first place. So the structural deficiency that makes discipline tough isn’t removed by removing the Head Coach.

3) The most plausible replacement scenario—Garrett—gives us only a marginally better chance to win this year. No matter how good Garrett is--and I think he’s going to be at least a Sean Payton-level success as a head coach in this league—he can’t correct the negative habits of the organization overnight. He can’t instantly have coordinators who are accountable to him. (Remember, Garrett wanted to hire Mike Solari as the O-Line coach, but Jerry did what he always does and went with the familiar Hudson Houck.) Garrett certainly is not going to have the ear of the defense, which is the unit that is most underachieving. I think Garrett would be less likely to hurt the precious feelings of the players than Wade is, but again, the effects of that change aren’t going to bear instantaneous fruit.

4) If we’re not going to make a deep playoff run under any coach in 2009, it would be better for us to miss the playoffs. Two reasons, in ascending order of importance:

A) Since Jerry took over the draft room, we’ve been consistently good when picking in the Top 15 (think Ware) and bad when picking after (think Spencer and Carpenter). Picking towards the top of the draft is no guarantee of success, but you’re way more likely to find an instant impact player at the priority positions (LT, pass rusher, D-Line, CB) when picking up front.

B) If we go 10-6 and lose a sloppily-played first round game at Minnesota, Jerry will convince himself that a new coach here and a Julius Peppers trade there are all we need. If we go 8-8, Jerry is more likely to do what he almost did last season: bring in someone like Reeves to add value to the front office, and stop “chasing shiny things” in personnel decisions.

5) Jerry’s fundamental weakness as a GM—and it animates nearly all of his major errors—is the Quick Fix Mentality. I admire Jerry’s lust for Super Bowl trophies, and disdain for finishing anywhere else. But he learned the wrong lessons from the Charles Haley and Deion Sanders acquisitions. Both of those guys would have been Hall of Famers even if they’d never been Cowboys, and both of them came onto loaded, pre-salary cap rosters with an established pecking order. Jerry’s attempts to duplicate Chucky/Deion are behind the Galloway and Roy Williams trades, behind the T.O. and Pac Man acquisitions, and even behind his tendency to overpay vets like Newman and Adams and one-year wonders like Hamlin whose age and/or spotty track record make them unlikely to continue to play at a Pro Bowl level. His quick fix mentality is behind most of our drafting mistakes, from the “reach to fill a need drafts” (Carpenter and Spencer are just modern versions of the drafts that produced Dwayne Goodrich and Shante Carver) and the “take risky players with huge upside” philosophy in the 2nd round that produced Antonio, Quincy, and Martellus. This mentality is the reason why we always have a top heavy roster, with a Rob Pettiti for every Leonard Davis, and virtually nothing in between. Even in an injury-free year like 2007, injuries are inevitable in the NFL, and when injuries bit us at the wrong time (Owens’ ankle, Romo’s thumb), we didn’t have the through-the-roster talent to compensate for stars’ playing at 85%. That the top of our roster is good is testament to Jerry’s strengths of (sometimes) listening to his scouts and charming free agents. That the bottom of our roster always sucks is testament to Jerry’s “upside” fetish and the fact that he personally adds zero value in player evaluation. Jerry needs to do the hard work of evaluating the top of the roster, stocking the bottom of the roster, and getting a coaching staff that is not just a collection of random parts.

6) I have hope that the 1997-2009 Cowboys will be like the 1982-1995 Yankees. It’s easy to forget now, but the careers (if not the personalities) of George Steinbrenner and Jerry Jones are eerily similar. Both took charge of the flagship franchise in their sport when it was at its low ebb. Both were criticized as out-of-their-depth rubes when they started, but used out-of-the-box thinking and big balls to bring their franchises back to the top. Both feuded with their most successful coach (Jimmy is Jerry’s Billy Martin), both began to micro-manage personnel decisions in favor of flash, and both spent a decade desperately chasing the “perfect” manager/coach (Bucky Dent=Dave Campo) when the problem was them all along. Both were still semi-successful in their exile from championships (the ‘Boys have been to the playoffs a lot, and the Yanks had a lot of good teams and Hall of Famers from ’82-’95.) In 1992, Steinbrenner got suspended for paying for dirt on Dave Winfield, and Gene Michael took over personnel in his absence. He developed Jeter, Bernie, Mariano, and Posada, and brought in the tyrannical Buck Showalter to clean the decks. When Steinbrenner returned in 1993, he quit micro-managing personnel, and used his money and the force of his charming-when-needed personality to convince free agents and valuable veterans without a ring (Boggs, Clemens) to become Yankees. 1996-2001 were a return to Yankee dominance. I hope that the near-hiring of Dan Reeves and the Stephen-inspired jettisoning of T.O. are not mere P.R. moves, but changes in Jerry’s mentality that are his “Gene Michael moment.” The history of owners in any sport who get overly involved in personnel is not good. When an owner makes himself GM in title or de facto, he creates a GM with no accountability to an owner above him and inherent power to intrude on the prerogatives of the coach that works below him. Of the owners who do business this way (Bidwell, Brown, Snyder, Davis, Jerry), Jerry is by far the best GM. He doesn’t need to give up all of his control, just enough of it.

After 29 years as a fan...I'm done (UPDATE!... "I'd like to revise and extend my remarks")

TimSchultz36 — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:57:43 -0000

I know a lot of fans feel like yesterday's loss was a stomach punch. For me, it wasn't. All of the elements of the game (particularly Romo's performance) were predictable. In fact, last week I predicted on these forums that we'd lose a close, low-scoring game in which our offensive line was dominated and Romo was erratic. The sheer inevitability of the loss, and the lack of hope for improvement, are why I'm done. A few more observations:

1) Romo has regressed. It might be like the hand injuries that derailed Kurt Warner's career, but Romo can add "inaccurate" to his other list of woes. He used to combine bonehead plays with high accuracy and big plays. But since he returned from the broken hand last year, he's a sub-60% passer.

2) The three most important people in the organization: GM Jerry, HC Wade, QB Tony are all below NFL average. Jerry and Wade are near the very bottom (no other NFL team would hire them for their positions were they on the open market), and Tony has slipped into the bottom half. They all seem like tremendously nice people, and they're trying hard. They just ain't that good. We're still better than the Redskins, though!

3) I can watch a 5-11 team that has upside. I can't watch an 8-8 team whom the GM thinks has 12-4 talent. I can't hear the GM rationalize a loss like this as being about how good the Broncos are. I can't hear him tell me how TO's production will be replaced by Miles effing Austin and Martellus effing Bennett, even though I totally agree with axing TO. I can't continue to have sunshine blown up my ass. Again: were we a 5-11 team on the rise, with a young coach and some young talent, I'd be fine. But we're a 9-7 team with all its best players in their prime. And our youngish QB, whose continued development was key to our long term chances, has regressed badly. He's just not the same player. I give him a lot of credit for making himself into an NFL starter coming from E. Illinois, I really do. He'll be the most successful D-3 QB in NFL history. But he'll never win a playoff game.

4) I rarely watch games with my wife at my side, as I get a little maniacal. But she was "amazed" with my Nostradamus-like powers when I said..."We're up 10-0, 3rd and long, our defense is shutting them down...here's where Romo has a big turnover to let them back into the game." And I was right. Sickening. But Romo's turnovers have become so situationally predictable, we're entering Bledsoe territory.

______

UPDATE: After having received a lot of feedback on my post (some of it surprisingly nasty and personal), I'd like to, as they say here in the nation's capital, "revise and extend my remarks." A little background: following the Cowboys is a significant hobby for me, and has been from age 8 to age 37. I spend 3 hours a week watching games, and probably 5-8 hours a week reading/thinking about/talking about the Cowboys. OK? That's a legit fan. Hell, that might be a legit disorder!

1) I'm a lawyer, and I'm usually pretty precise with words. This time, I wasn't. This isn't the fault of the audience for misunderstanding me, by the way. This is the fault of me, the communicator, inadequately conveying my thoughts. I'm rarely enraged, so it might've had something to do with that.

2) I really should’ve said “I no longer have any hope in the organization (especially Wade-Jerry-Tony), and I’m going to stop paying attention to the Cowboys until there is reason to think they have their crap together.” I want them to have it together. But I feel a little like a felt as a DC Republican when Bush nominated Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court. I was just like "OK, I want this guy to succeed, but I just can't defend it anymore, and I can't have any hope that it will get better." It was just a breaking point.

3) Everyone probably should have their "breaking point" with the team they root for. Not in the sense that they will leave for good, but in the sense that they'll not pay attention until the organization changes direction. And by "direction," I don't mean "record." It's not the losses that kill me. It's Jerry saying postgame "I'm not going to act like we just lost the Super Bowl." (If only we were that good!) It's Jerry seemingly to honestly get out the anointing oil for Austin and Bennett before they'd done boo in actual NFL games. I can't help but like Jerry personally...I'd love to sit next to him on a plane sometime. I think he's a mensch. Think the same of Romo and even Wade. I think they all try very hard. I just no longer have any hope that this cast of characters can take us even to the playoffs. So I'm "done" believing that that outcome is possible, and I'm downgrading my attention from like 10 hours a week to 30 minutes a week.

4) Different people will have different breaking points than others. The way Al Davis has run the Raiders, wouldn’t a lot of legit Raiders fans say “I love the Raiders, but I hate what Al Davis has made them into. I’m not supporting them, I’m not going to spend time hoping they get better, unless and until Al radically changes.” Sometimes, real fans have to back away a little until the organization gets its stuff together.

5) I don’t think Jerry is Al Davis bad, and he’s not even Dan Snyder bad. He IS, however, one of only three owners who is running his franchise this way. Two out of three of those franchises are fabulously profitable, but none of them are even close to winning a Super Bowl. Jerry markets the team fabulously. But if he really believes that Roy is a #1 worth a first round pick, that Bennett and Austin will replace TO’s production, etc., he’s an awful GM. I don’t think Jerry is giving up the GM title. Maybe he gives Stephen more responsibilities. I’m fine with that. I just can’t continue to follow them fanatically when they’re doomed to failure, as they are this year. So in summary, let me say: I'm not done as a fan. I'm done as an avid fan, and I don't have much hope that things will ever turn around to make the team worth the kind of emotion I'd given to it.

Felix is like "china in a bull closet"...and Five Thoughts on the game

TimSchultz36 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:36:28 -0000

I've been doing this every week, so without further ado...

1) “They were who we thought they were!” Last night was the first time the Cowboys played like I expected them to play before the season: Solid Defense, Safe and Maddening Offense, Improved Special Teams. Last night’s offense was the one we all know and loathe…confusion in blitz pickup, compensatory penalties, bogging down in the red zone. We were good in the red zone in week two largely due to really good play selection. The media is complaining we didn’t call run plays at the goal line, but Romo said they were audibling to passes after the defensive alignment showed that a player would be unblocked if they ran. Teams are begging us to pass at the goal line, because they realize that Romo cannot throw the fade.

2) Would it be a bad thing if this became known as “Jay Ratliff’s Defense?” Don’t get me wrong: I love me some DeMarcus. But there’s a nastiness about Ratliff, a crazy look in his eye, that is the personality that I’d like to see contaminate the whole unit. And I don’t particularly like “The Rat” as his nickname…insufficiently descriptive. Rats give people the willies, but they aren’t terrifying. Ratliff scares me. Until someone comes up with something better, I will hereinafter refer to Ratliff as “Krazee Eyez Killah.” I could totally see Ratliff barking “I’ll snap off your neck with a crackle and pop…” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCzdEAy8WOw

3) After T.O. early season production and Twitter craziness, does anyone still think Jerry made the wrong move? I mostly agree with the suddenly insufferable Steve Young that this offense lacks a downfield passing threat. That will occasionally result in games where we pile up 400 yards but score 17 points. But T.O. is just not good anymore. And for anyone who hasn’t read his Twitter page…seriously. Go now. This is the guy’s thoughts in real time, but when he’s trying to make himself look good(!), and he comes off as a total fool. When Brian Dawkins was asked earlier this year if the Brandon Marshall craziness rivaled the T.O. craziness, he said “No…T.O. was way crazier.” Once T.O. “loses respect” for a QB and an OC---and he’s six-for-six in respect losing in his NFL career—he’s simply insufferable. Read his tweets, look at his declining skills, and ask yourself whether you’d re-hire him as our Number One receiver.

4) Felix Jones leaves me holding my breath every time he touches the ball…and then again as we await the inevitable MRI results. Felix is being compared to Tony Dorsett, but that’s an insult to Felix. When he’s on the field, Felix is not as fast but much more explosive. That move he put on Godfrey last night was straight Barry Sanders, but unlike Barry, Felix doesn’t dance his way into lots of negative plays and can lower his shoulder in short yardage. Still, staying healthy is a skill, and at this point in his career, Felix’s body is like china in a bull closet.

5) Jon Gruden was so slobbery in his affection for Romo (I half-expected “I love you, bro”) that I think he might be auditioning to coach in Dallas next year. Look: unless we advance to the Super Bowl, Wade will not be back. He’s simply not one of the Top 15 head coaches in football, and precisely no other team would hire him as a head coach in 2010, so why would we re-hire him? Gruden should be higher on our short list than he probably will be. Here’s what I think Jerry’s short list will be, and should be:

WILL BE: 1) Garrett 2a) Holmgren 2b) Shanahan. On a football level, Jerry likes to be comfortable with the people he hires. He treats people like family, and it’s usually reciprocated. (E.g., On the day he fired Campo, he held a press conference with Campo and praised him to the skies!) Lots of media people think Jerry=Steinbrenner, when in fact he is nothing of the sort. In fact, JJ perhaps should be a little bit more like Steinbrenner, in creating a little healthy tension in the building for coaches and players who under perform. Jerry clearly does not want Garrett to go someplace else and be the next Sean Payton. If we win 10+ games, I think Garrett would be the favorite. After all, if the other candidates are also Offensive Gurus, why not hire the guy who is a successful offensive coach that doesn’t require you to shift offensive systems? Now, this all depends on how we finish the year. If we have another late season nosedive, Jerry will need a big PR hit next year—he won’t be able to market Garrett to a demoralized fan base. Remember, with Jerry, it’s always marketing. Balancing football and marketing, Holmgren and Shanahan have both tamed wild QB’s (Holmgren-Favre and Shanahan-Elway, Young) and coaxed career performances out of guys without elite skills (Holmgren-Hasselbeck and Shanahan-Plummer). In this case, I worry that Jerry will balance his PR need with his aversion to radical change and choose Holmgren. Shanahan’s offense is better with nimble linemen (of which we have only one), and Holmgren’s doesn’t require it. Jerry is also closer to Holmgren. I’m worried that a) Holmgren will be 62, and this is now a young(er) coach’s league, and b) Holmgren’s best years were with Ron Wolf, and Jerry is no Ron Wolf. In Seattle, Holmgren feasted on a weak division but still only won more than 10 games once in ten years. Shanahan is younger, and I don’t think it would hurt to transition away from the “huge linemen” model that seems to bite us when their fat asses get tired and under perform in December.

SHOULD BE: 1) Garrett 2a) Gruden 2b) Shanahan. Let me say a few words in favor of Gruden. He’s worked for a meddling owner, but Jerry is nowhere near as crazy as Al Davis. He’s an offensive coach who won a Super Bowl with a defense-first team and built the offense-first Raiders team that went to the Super Bowl. He’s ten years younger than Shanahan and 15 years younger than Holmgren. He’s gotten great performances out of journeyman QB’s Gannon and Johnson. He’s the most intense of all the coaching candidates mentioned, he’d probably work for Jerry (unlike Cowher), and he has the strong personality needed to get the players’ attention amidst the circus that Jerry creates. While intense and capable of instilling discipline through fear, Gruden wouldn’t create the Bataan Death March atmosphere of Duane Charles Parcells. On balance, if we win 9 or fewer games this year and need to clean house, I think Gruden should be the guy.

Instant Overreaction: Five Thoughts

TimSchultz36 — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:15:49 -0000

There will be an orgy of overreaction to this loss. Still, I'm going to try and maintain objectivity...

1. The defense was so bad tonight it had me wishing for Brian Stewart. C'mon, admit it: you knew (and I did too) that when Eli got the ball back there was a 90% chance they were driving for the game winning FG. You also knew that there was little chance of a sack or turnover. In two games, Wade's D has given up 450+ yards (if you count pass Int penalties), gotten zero sacks and zero turnovers. Right now, we're one of the worst defenses in the league. Only Wade the Coordinator could save Wade the HC, and Wade the Coordinator has F's in his first two starts.

2. This was Tony Romo's worst non-December start. Ever. I love Romo, and I don't think we're going to find a better QB in trade/free agency. Still, I hate...and I mean, I HATE to admit this, but tonight's performance was so putrid I'm starting to think that those who say he "lacks what it takes" may be right. Look, I know he's won some big games, and he'll win more. But he mixes in crapulent performances in big "showdown games" so frequently that I really don't know if he can stay consistent enought to win over a 6 game stretch of late season/playoffs. Assuming the D is fixed, the Cowboys can win games if Romo plays a C- game, but not if he plays an F game. Going back to Pittsburgh last year, Tony's had "D" or worse performances in four of our five big games. Our O-Line played great tonight. This was all on him.

3. Jason Garrett had another really good game. We had 370+ yards and 31 points with a shaky QB vs. probably the best Defense in the NFC. Romo's suckitude tonight aside, if Garrett's O continues to so outperform Wade's D, how can Wade retain any respect inside the locker room?

4. In order, the biggest concerns with our defense are Terence Newman's decline and our lack of pass rush. Taking them in reverse order, Anthony Spencer has not even remotely replaced Ellis. He's not getting near the QB, and Eli had 4-5 seconds to step in rhythm on every throw. And Newman has now been beaten deep 3 times in two games by receivers who ain't exactly burners. Look, I love me some Newman...a fellow Kansas State Wildcat. I hope I'm wrong, but Newman could be having a similarly sudden age-related decline that TO experienced last year. If so, we're in deep doo-doo.

5. Our new stadium is impressive, and I'm glad Jerry built it, but there's more than a little "Jerry's tribute to Jerry" in the whole thing. It also didn't sound all that loud. We're in a nip and tuck game with our arch rival and I didn't feel the "electricity" through the TV screen that I think I would've felt it a similar game were played in Pittsburgh. We have the most valuable team in American team sports without winning a playoff game in 13 years. That's a testament to brilliant marketing, but at some point, the marketing is going to stop working. If we don't win this year, next year's inevitable marketing campaign centered around Holmgren or Shanahan and a binge on defensive free agents in an uncapped year will be the 2010 story. Jerry convinces the media and most fans every year that we have upper echelon talent. But do we really? We get stories from camp that Martellus is dominating and Scandrick was the steal of the '08 draft. Martellus has 2 catches this year and Scandrick made Smith and Manningham, LLC look like Irvin and Rice. But seriously: fans will only be patient for so long.

Five Thoughts After Seeing Romo Mic'd Up

TimSchultz36 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:20:46 -0000

Anyone who hasn't watched the Romo video needs to go, and needs to go now. It's highly entertaining, but also highly instructive about what happened during the game. Five thoughts...

1) The Buc's "busted coverages" were caused by Romo and Garrett, not by simple defensive brainfarts. Do you remember in 2007, we were toasting teams' secondaries every week, and the other team would say "we missed assigments..."? Actually, when the 'Boys offense is working, they use motion to create coverage mismatches and force the 2nd rate DBs that every team has to make split second decisions about who to take, which Romo makes tougher with his shoulder fakes. Romo obviously saw something that made him beg Garrett to call the particular play on the Roy TD, and then Romo audibled into the Crayton TD play, freezing the safety with a pump fake and then throwing over the top. Notice how Romo was getting lots of love on the sidelines after the Crayton TD...it's because while it looked easy in real time on TV, re-watching the action up close shows that Romo made that play, and his teammates knew it.

2) It's obvious why the Dallas media is pretty nice to Romo...he's a really likeable guy. His conversation with McGee about his "tough upbringing in Burlington, Wisconsin" is classic. His "I'll give you a kiss" banter with Jason Garrett is runner-up. It's obvious from Garrett's non-plussed response that he's a pretty serious dude, and I like that.

3) I'm cautiously optimistic that Romo is "getting it" on emotional leadership. Tony has a huge personality, but not the "perfectionist asshole" personality of Aikman or Manning that falls more easily into leadership. Romo has a cerebral, "technical fix" approach to football that he's borrowed from golf, which is his first love. In golf, emotion is the enemy. What I think he's realizing is that most positions in the NFL are not at all like golf (QB may be the exception), and that not all players are as self-motivated as he is. Seeing him in the middle of the pre-game scrum (albeit spouting cliches) shows that he may be getting that he has to supply emotional energy to the team. His personality...and I hate to say this...is much more like Brett Favre. But who can argue that Favre was a legit leader, especially before he got too big for his britches late in his career?

4) Our big plays demonstrate that raw speed is overrated as a factor in big plays. Jason Garrett said before the season "it's not speed, it's route-running." How many times is a touchdown when a fast guy just burns past his man on a fly or post? This explains why Patrick Crayton has a higher TYC in his career than Devin Hester. Sure, all other things being equal, I'd rather have a guy who is fast AND runs perfect routes (e.g., the underrated Terry Glenn). And sure, there's a minimum "suddenness" requirement that explains the failure of Mike Williams and the non-big-playness of Keyshawn Johnson. We have two tight ends capable of splitting out who are too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers. So defenses have to either concede 10-20 yard passes to our TEs, or put corners on our TEs, which is going to leave safeties and nickel corners on Williams/Crayton/Austin, who are all too big and fast to be well covered by these lesser athletes.

5) I like Kitna so much more than Brad Johnson, and not just for perfomance reasons. Kitna has always been an emotional guy. He's out there doing flying chest bumps with Romo, he's right in the middle of the offensive meeting after Ronde's sack. He's assertive, and I think it will help Romo be assertive and emotional, too. Remember, Carson Palmer attributes his best season in large part to Kitna, and Kitna also seems to be "The Roy Whisperer."

Romo is "Mr. September" and Five Other Game One Thoughts...

TimSchultz36 — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 19:07:55 -0000

Let me start with a little stat: Tony Romo is 23-4(!) in non-December starts. Two of those losses (at Arizona in ’08, at Washington in ’06) were lost on special teams debacles, as Romo was good in both of them. The other two losses (home to Skins in ’08, home to Pats in ’07), we just flat got beat by teams that outplayed us that day. But if you take these things together, it stands for this proposition: if Tony Romo is healthy, we will be between 8-3 and 10-1 headed into December. That said, here five observations about our team based on game 1:

1) The Slimmed Down Roy Williams is much better at getting releases against press coverage than 2008 TO was, and much better at catching marginal or contested passes than 2008 TO was. Prediction: Roy will be a better player in 2009 than the 2006, 2008, and 2009 versions of TO.

2) Our pass defense is more of a long term worry than our run defense. It’s a long term problem that a) Mike Jenkins makes one major mental error a game in zone coverage and b) We continue to be unable to defend that “stack” pass formation. If Leftwich has more touch on that throw to Bryant, and if Winslow doesn’t drop that 4th down pass, it’s a much different game. Better teams will execute in those situations.

3) This game showed how 85% of the training camp CW is ridiculous. Remember, the big stories of training camp were the “dink and dunk offense” and “Sam Hurd and Kevin Ogletree break out!,” and (in non-Cowboys news) “Aaron Rodgers is the MVP!” Really, except with players in year one or two, individual players usually don’t make quantum improvements in the off season. It’s much more likely that a player will rapidly decline (cough, T.O.) due to age or injury than vastly improve.

4) Garrett had a very good day, using route combos to get receivers wide open, but Wade had a terrible day. In the “Wade calls the defense” era, this was Wade’s worst game, by far. Run blitzes getting gashed, the D coming out with less intensity than the Bucs’ offense, and pass blitzes not sacking an immobile QB. The Bucs actually have underrated offensive personnel now that Cadillac looks back, but our vaunted halftime “adjustments” seemed to involve hanging on for dear life hoping the Bucs made a mistake—they obliged a few times. We actually don’t have great defensive personnel (only two “blue chip” players and no “nearly blue chip” players according to the National Football Post), but we need a Top Ten D to make a deep run and Wade needs to step it up.

5) I actually like seeing Tash as our Third Down Back. He’s clearly a better blocker than Felix, and he’s adequate as a safety valve and draw running option. Plus, I like the energy he plays with…he’s supplying some of the energy Barber used to before he became the starter.

Emmitt is right! And also wrong…

TimSchultz36 — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:41:06 -0000

There’s more than a little Tiki Barber in Emmitt’s comments (the surest way to get a headline is to bash the QB and coach of your old team). That said, there are a few grains of truth mixed in with some silly assumptions in his comments.

The Grains of Truth:

1) Wade can’t change. Jerry’s PR machine notwithstanding, and Wade’s tougher camp notwithstanding, I think Emmitt is right on the substance here. I don’t think that being a hard ass is a necessary condition for being a solid head coach (see Dungy, Tony). At the same time, I think that a certain percentage of NFL players need negative consequences (other than losing) to motivate them. On teams with calmer head coaches, the role usually falls to a premier player (Peyton Manning is barking at his teammates all the time). Jerry’s seemingly weird meditations last year on a team needing to have all body parts (including an “asshole”) are actually true most of the time. And the major personalities on this team (especially Jerry) are positive people who want to be liked.

2) The O-Line has issues. I saw a Football Outsiders stat the other day that freaked me out. Tony Romo was “hurried” last year more than ANY QB in the NFL. As good as Romo is at avoiding sacks (notice what happened when Brad Johnson was QB), even he can’t avoid the constant fact that rushers come free. It could be the “exposed” protection schemes that Romo talked about after Philly. Or it could just be that complicated blitzes that require complex interaction between Flozell and the LG always seem to work for teams like Baltimore and Philly that have the athletes to do it. The most underrated factor in our late season slides is we have big linemen who perform well in Sept and Oct but have worn down by the end of the year.

The Silly

1) Romo needs to change. Emmitt is like most ex-players who have won Super Bowls: they assume that their team dynamics are the only way for a team to win. But look at the Super Bowl quarterbacks of recent years, and ask if they are guys who are screaming at their linemen, as Emmitt recommended. Eli Manning? Please. Brad Johnson for the 2002 Bucs? Is Big Ben yelling at his quite sub-par O-Line? There are lots of models for teams to win, and they don’t all include a “QB is a vocal or emotional leader” requirement. I DO think that the O-Line needs someone to yell at them, and that Tony Sparano was underrated in that role.

2) Emmitt’s “no leadership” refrain is nearly irrefutable. The reason is that, in order to “refute” it, the Cowboys would need to win the Super Bowl. And in today’s NFL, even the very best team maybe has a one in six chance of winning the Super Bowl. Look at the Colts: they’ve won one Super Bowl in 8 years of Manning’s prime, and so a commentator wanting to say “Colts have NO LEADERS!!!” would be proven “right” seven years out of eight. Media figures who say this are masquerading as gutsy truth tellers when in fact they are making a rather gutless prediction.

Five Predictions: a season that rides on Romo's hand, Flozell's feet, and Jenkins' head...

TimSchultz36 — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 13:42:18 -0000

The (mostly stupid) national media has us missing the playoffs, and smarter but still myopic Football Outsiders has us (as usual) at 8-8. Their rationale is that from 2005-2007 Dallas has had really good "injury luck," but we struggled when we had a league average games lost by starters in 2008. The problem is that "games missed by starters" is an imprecise stat. We have about 6 indispensable players (Newman, Romo, Ware, Flozell, Witten, now Ratliff) where the dropoff to backups is huge. Newman missed 8 games and was hobbled in others, Romo missed 3 games but his hand affected his accuracy in others, and Flozell played hurt 1/2 the year.

1) We'll Have Three or Four Position Controversies: With the departure of Jacques Reeves in 08 and Roy Willy in 09, fans will need new players that we love to hate. I predict that Flozell and/or Jenkins will fill this "goat gap." Flozell will draw more penalties (especially holding) this year as he has to compensate for age related decline, and Jenkins will make mental errors in zone coverage and/or miss tackles that will lead to several big plays. Doug Free will start at least two games and acquit himself decently, leading for calls to sit Flozell. I also predict two potentially mild controversies for two old fan favorites: Barber and Folk. Folk will struggle with distance FG's early and make even shorter attempts an adventure, while David Buehler becomes a fan favorite for making at least two plays on special teams and leads the league in touchback percentage. It will be obvious that Barber, while good, is so intensity reliant that he has a steep productivity dropoff when his usage exceeds 15 touches a game. Meanwhile, Felix Jones will be the 2nd coming of Herschel Walker in 1986. He'll make a dazzling play virtually every week, and it will be obvious that, while fans love Barber like we loved Dorsett, the offense is turbo-charged when Felix enters, and that he's surprisingly good between the tackles. Felix will start at some point as the P.R. Department explains that Barber is "injured, and will be used as a backup" but Barber will refuse comment past "I ain't injured" as Jerry blunders his way into a mini-controversy that could have been avoided if the team admitted that Felix is just better.

2) The Offense Won't Miss TO: While analysts ask how we can replace TO's "38 touchdowns," smart fans will realize that the dominant TO of 07 didn't exist in 08 and definitely doesn't exist now. Meanwhile, Dallas will run a more low-risk offense like the San Diego Chargers, who had the best offense in the NFL last year despite injuries to Gates and LT and whose #1 (Vincent Jackson) caught fewer than 60 balls. Our big plays will be different than our big plays of 07-09: we'll see more catch and runs by the backs, more scheme-related double moves, and more seam passes to Bennett. Romo will not match his fantasy football totals of 07, but Tony will have fewer than 15 turnovers and still throw for 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs. Meanwhile, the new Roy Willy will be the new Leonard Davis: a talented UT underachiever for a bad franchise who steps it up for a winning franchise. Williams will have 900 yards and 8-10 TDs while missing two games, but his chippiness with opposing DBs and the media and first down celebrations will win over most skeptics. Jerry will compare him to Michael Irvin (to wide ridicule), but he at least won't be Joey Galloway. More like Keyshawn Johnson in his prime with a little more vertical ability. Neither Hurd nor Austin will "break out," as they are both chronically injured. If you could combine Hurd's ball skills with Austin's athleticism you'd have an All-Pro; as it is, they are nice complementary players who will struggle to beat elite cover corners.

3) The Defense Will be like the Wade-coached 08 version: sack heavy, turnover low, but Top 8 in the league. This team's defensive bugaboo from 06-08 has been coverage of tight ends and running backs, both of which can be laid at the feet of the strong safety position. Sensabaugh will be average in coverage, but replacing the worst coverage safety with an average one will improve the D like replacing an average one with a great one. Jerry will prompty overpay Sensabaugh next offseason while being the unnamed source when Peter King (wrongfully) writes that "Sensabaugh should've made the Pro Bowl." In reality, the Pro Bowl snub will be Scandrick, who will eventually beat out Jenkins and outplay Newman. The man-heavy coverage scheme and Scandrick and Newman's limited ball skills will lead to a lot of coverage sacks but few interceptions, and Newman makes the Pro Bowl in a "Denzel got his Oscar for Training Day?" lifetime achievement pick.

4) Dallas will overperform pre-season predictions due to the 2008 draft, which will be as foundational as the 2003 and 2005 drafts were. Those drafts were excellent because the first rounders became stars, and we got guys like Barber, Witten, and Ratliff later. But remember, Witten and Barber didn't break out until year two, as most NFL drafts aren't felt until the year after the draft. Jones is a Newmanesque fast twitch athlete with a humble personality and hard work ethic who will be an elite player for 8 years. Scandrick is a smart, hyper-intense overachiever like Barber, Witten, and Rat. Martellus is from a long line of high risk/reward second round picks with attitude or "motor" questions that has included Antonio Bryant, Quincy Carter, and Flozell Adams. Bennett doesn't seem surly like Bryant, and while ultra quirky free spirits like him too often end up like Michael Beasley, I see Bennett's career more like "the Hotel" or even "Big Cat" Lett: a rare physical talent who will tease and frustrate fans his entire career, while adding a lot of value to the franchise. Our 2009 draft will end up as a D+, but Jerry will cite David Buehler's touchback rate and tackling as justifying the "special teams draft." And Kevin Ogletree will become a quieter Patrick Crayton.

I've taken only small "poetic license" with the above predictions...I think they're they reflect the probable performance of the players in question. My season projection below is told as a story that I hardly expect to be fulfilled like prophecy, though I expect the broad contours to be correct. (Fast start, 10-11 Wins, Wild Card round victory, Close loss to end season, Wade not renewed).

5) Dallas will enter the bye week 4-1. split a tough stretch of Atlanta-Seattle-Philly-Green Bay, including one loss that will be widely blamed on Nick Folk. We will be 8-3 after bludgeoning Oakland on Thanksgiving. Everyone will be talking about "another December meltdown." In my opinion, our past December meltdowns have been due to the interaction of three underrated factors: Tony Romo's small hands, our big O-Line, and our schedule. Romo's hands are like Kurt Warner's: they give him uncanny touch but also are prone to injury and fumbles. The turning point of each of our past two seasons was an injury to Romo's hand. Our playoff loss to the Giants doesn't happen if Romo's hand is 100% and he doesn't "hit the mascot" with a couple of deep throws. Last year Romo leads an amazing comeback against AZ, breaks his hand on the first play of OT, and throws two more wild incompletons. If his hand doesn't break, he probably leads the offense down the field for what we'd all remember as a Staubach-esque victory. Small-handed "touch" QB's are also more susceptible to the elements, and Tony is a bad cold weather QB. Romo's December struggles are mostly related to injuries, cold weather, and the inevitable O-Line swoon. Ever since the Jimmy dynasty, we've used the "massive offensive line" model. Parcells complained about fat linemen because he knew they wear down late in the season. We have a B+ O-Line in September, and a C- O-Line in December that is exposed especially by the athletic fronts in our own division. These problems have been excacerbated by Romo's injuries and the cold weather. Three of our five December games are in domes this year, and Washington (where I live) is rarely freezing, even in December. I predict a dramatic Sunday Night win in Washington to put us at 10-5 and (virtually) into the playoffs. Any hopes of 1st place are dashed by Philly's 11th win (over Denver), and their better conference record guarantees them first place notwithstanding the result of the finale. Still, the finale will be important, as Dallas chases the #5 seed and Philly could get the #1 seed with a win. In a nasty, chippy game that involves sparring matches between Scandrick and Desean Jackson, as well as Roy and Asante Samuel, Felix "out-Westbrooks-Westbrook" and Dallas wins a shootout to finish 11-5, the 5th seed, and widely seen as entering the playoffs with momentum for the first time this decade. Dallas opens on the road against #4 seed Seattle, a 9-7 NFC West embarrassment that is once again leading for calls to re-seed the playoffs. Dallas beats Seattle rather easily for Wade and Romo's first playoff win, advancing to meet the #1 seed, who I think will come out of the NFC Central this year (40% Minny, and maybe even with Rosenfels, 30% Chicago, and 30% surprising Packers). Romo leads a 4th quarter drive to take a late 4 point lead, but a blown coverage by Mike Jenkins leads to a quick TD drive and a late 3 point deficit. Romo leads the team downfield again, but given a chance to go aggressively for a TD or play conservatively for a 40 yard FG, Wade turns into Marty Schottenheimer and plays it safe. Nick Folk misses a 40-something FG, and we lose a heartbreaker. Tim McMahon of the DMN refers to Folk for the next 8 months as "Nick Norwood." The failure of the Defense to stop the late drive and the questionable game management make Wade's non-renewal a fait accompli. Jason Garrett's #3 ranked offense, which sparkled in late games against Philly and Seattle, makes him the new head coach.

Boys team hotel in DC?

TimSchultz36 — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:10:54 -0000

I'm sure a lot of the 'Boys' DC fans will be there...but where is "there"? I'm ready to meet some other fans in the DC area. And I'm ready for a victory that turns our season around

I'm not a stalker, but since I know that fans tend to congregate in team hotels hoping for a glimpse of their favorite stars, I'm hoping to do the same.

Anyone know where the 'Boys stay in DC?