SBNation.com User Blog: TimberGreen

A statement win puts the league on alert

TimberGreen — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 17:52:11 -0000

Memo to MLS: it's not just a fluke anymore. The Portland Timbers are a force to be reckoned with.

An unbeaten run that includes wins against teams like Houston and San Jose is nothing to sneeze at. But to extend that streak with a win at Livestrong is a full-fledged statement.

Teams around the league have noticed, I guarantee it. They will be watching MORE tape and pouring more hours into their preparation efforts for the emerging Portland Timbers. This means it is only going to get harder for us.

Caleb Porter was one of my favorite coach-replacement options, and when we hired him, I could hardly believe we actually got him. Once hired, I never doubted his potential or his intelligence. But I DID try very hard to temper my expectations. I thought it was very possible that it would take significant time to put all the pieces together and get the team firing on all cylinders.

But now that we've officially exceeded expectations, and emerged early on as one of the best attacks in the league, every team will be seeking to become the team that stopped the Portland Timbers unstoppable attack. We're going to be facing a LOT of stubborn defenses in the coming games. Is Caleb Porter ready with answers? Does our team have enough offensive bite to consistently snake out a goal or two when facing tough, bunkered, and disruptive tactics from some of the better defensive sides in this league?

The San Jose series gives me hope that this is possible. But only time will tell.

Saturday's win was a HUGE statement that the whole team and most of the fans have taken tremendous joy in. But it only ups the ante for what we'll need to do to keep the momentum going. Let's hope Caleb Porter and the players are already moving on from the euphoria of this tremendous victory, and are actively preparing for the difficult road ahead.

#RSOUT!!!

TimberGreen — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 17:23:56 -0000

What is it with this guy? The Sounders hate him. The Timbers hate him. I'm not sure there is a fanbase in MLS that doesn't have some horrific call or non-call they associate Ricardo Salazar with.

if you asked me to name a referee who officiates MLS games, Ricardo Salazar is the only name I'd be able to spit out at moment's notice. I believe there are thousands of fans exactly like me in that sense. This is not a good thing for a referee.

Ricardo Salazar's name is probably more recognized than some of the better MLS players. When you're talking referees, name recognition is not a good thing. Refs don't develop fame by calling good games. Officials who are consistent, who recognize the plays that deserve cards and ignore the ones that don't, never get a second notice. They remain in the background as facilitators and moderators to the cause of the beautiful game.

Ricardo Salazar is not one of these.

I don't understand how the level of refereeing can be SO bad from the US Soccer Federation (USSF). Referees routinely fail to maintain control of games. When they do try to wrest control, they often make headlines for showing the wrong cards to the wrong players at the wrong times.

The officiating in MLS is a disaster. It is the biggest stain on MLS. It is the biggest barrier to quality football in America---even bigger than the salary cap, in my opinion. While many quality players have come to our league in recent years, one can't help but wonder how many more DON'T come because they know their career might be put in jeopardy by stray elbows.

It's time for something to be done. Maybe current efforts to improve the quality of refereeing just need more time. But I can't help but think that the positive tools being given to referees to help them improve their performances need to be offset by more accountability. I can't help but feel that United States referees who develop reputations in the worst possible ways have too much job security.

I have watched enough European matches to think I am right in concluding that it isn't simply an illusion that refereeing in MLS is drastically below the level of officiating in Europe. I would argue that the disparity in officiating quality is even greater than the disparity in player quality. In a league that has built itself on speed, physicality and athleticism over the past decade, and is now beginning to grow the much-needed technical side, this is a HUGE problem.

MLS is moving forward rapidly in quality of play, but the quality of officiating threatens that. It's sickening to continue to see technically brilliant players from abroad arrive in MLS only to get taken out by hacks whose only tools of success are elbows, jersey grabs, shoves, and bearhugs. It's sickening to see teams like Sporting Kansas City and Houston infuse their possession-oriented attacks with dangerous tackles, bone-rattling collisions on 50/50 balls, and swinging elbows and forearms in the air because, hey, they work!

Too many players get injured too often in MLS. The excessive physicality needs to end, but it can't without referees who know how to manage it properly.

What better way to infuse our US refereeing situation with some accountablity, than to fire a guy who has turned himself into a national celebrity among American soccer fans for his controversial calls and mind-blowingly ridiculous non-calls?

It's time for MLS fans to tell the USSF:

RICARDO SALAZAR OUT!

What is it with this guy? The Sounders hate him. The Timbers hate him. I'm not sure there is a fanbase in MLS that doesn't have some horrific call or non-call they associate Ricardo Salazar with.

Ricardo Salazar is not one of these.

Too many players get injured too often in MLS. The excessive physicality needs to end, but it can't without referees who know how to manage it properly.

It's time for MLS fans to tell the USSF:

RICARDO SALAZAR OUT!

Poll

How bad is the officiating in MLS?

Pretty good, actually. Fans will always hate the refs, but they have a tough job and are not nearly as bad as everyone thinks they are.

6 votes

Worse than Europe, but consistent with the development of the league.

18 votes

Terrible. The quality of referring in MLS is a problem for the league that needs to be resolved sooner rather than later.

49 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

Amateur Tactician: Tiki Taka LIVES!!!

TimberGreen — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 21:35:50 -0000

I couldn't be more thrilled to have had my prediction fall flat.

Based on AC Milan's performance in Italy, I didn't think Barcelona could get back three goals, and questioned whether or not they would be able to shut out Milan even if they did. I predicted AC Milan would hang on and Barcelona would be eliminated.

But as a fan of attacking, passing football, I am glad I was wrong.

So what was different about today?

Well, they were at Camp Nou, but that hasn't always made a huge difference between two legs against a resolute defense. No doubt the conditions on the pitch were more suited to Barcelona's quick ball movement.

But tactically there were also some tweaks.

1. Mascherano for Puyol: Carles is still a very good defender, but the 34-year-old may have slowed just enough to be vulnerable against a really good forward in the kind of space a counterattack provides. Mascherano has had his own defensive issues, but at least has a bit more speed, which is valuable against the counter if he keeps his head up. Today, he did. He rose to the occasion and got the job done.

2. Iniesta in the middle: having Villa on the left at forward and Iniesta back in midfield seemed to make the whole attack more comfortable, as many predicted. Everyone was back at home in their natural positions.

3. Spreading the field: one of the faults of the Tiki-Taka system is that compact play on the buildup can be clogged out. To remedy this, the system has to be able to flex into a buildup that puts a lot more space between players. Barcelona restored one of the fundamentals you see from their Dutch counterparts, which uses width and depth to spread out the defense. Against a parked bus, Barca has been stubbornly trying to stick with their compact passing game in the final third and trying to out-finesse the defense and it just hasn't worked. Today they came out with a considerably larger amount of spacing between their attackers and it completely unraveled AC Milan. Barca's passing, even when they had to make (slightly) longer passes or put the ball in the air towards an overlapping winger more often, seemed more far more effective than it was in the first leg, because there was more space for passers to feed the ball between the defenders.

4. Off-the-ball movement: last but NOT least. This is possibly the most important difference, and is also directly tied to their improved ball movement, as mentioned above. I questioned whether the rigidity and lack of flow on offense a couple weeks ago was due to Barcelona being flat on offense, or simply the effectiveness of this kind of defense when well executed, in making their usual passing flow impossible to execute. But espnfc.com's Graham Hunter reported that Xavi recently highliged their lack of movement in the first leg. The post quotes Xavi as saying,"Perhaps you see things more clearly from afar. Against Madrid last week we lacked mobility in attack and intensity in defense. These ideas have won us so many games in the past and we must recuperate them. There has been something lacking. When we've been winning for so long and when other sides have had time to study us over and again perhaps sometimes it's possible to fall into the trap of not producing enough mobility off the ball without realizing it." No shizzle Xavi! So the issue WAS you guys all along! But seriously, Xavi's going to be calling the shots from the Barca sideline one of of these years.

5. A tiny bit more in tactical flexibility: Barcelona still played THEIR game today. Clearly the added space and (slightly) longer passes didn't prevent them from dominating possession and passing the ball quickly and efficiently through a fluid group of attackers. If anything, it made those efforts more effective. But their biggest tactical adjustment came late in the game, after they got the third goal and AC Milan had no choice but to try to take the game back by force. Carles Puyol came on for Mascherano to shore up the backline against Milan's buildup game and Barcelona went into a rare counter-attacking mode. They invited AC Milan to bring the ball forward and try to break down their defense. When they inevitabley got the ball back---BLAM---they sent 3-5 guys bolting forward towards the Milan goal, looking to exploit the space left by all the Milan players pushing forward to try to get a goal back. Eventually they got that goal. Jordi Alba found himself in a one-on-one with Milan's keeper, and was able to calmly slot the ball past him to seal the win.

Most of the tweaks I've mentioned are perfectly acceptable adjustments within the Tiki-Taka system. In fact, the off-the-ball movement is one of the foundations of Tiki-Taka, so that point was really a return to the system they were inadvertently slipping away from.

My last point, however, is the most controversial one. Is it a copout for Barcelona to play with that much tactical flexibility? Is it a betrayal for them to play 20 minutes of counterattacking football at the end of the game to create more space to get that final "nail in the coffin" goal and take the counterattack away from their opposition?

I don't think it should be. Even though Barcelona played a little more to the counter-attack at the end, they did it to protect the lead they had created by dominating the game earlier, and possibly widen it.

And it worked.

Today's result is huge for TWO reasons.

1. It gives Barcelona the confidence that they can still create and finish enough chances against a tough, bunkered defense to not only win, but to dominate.

2. It sends a HUGE message to any other team that wants to pull a Inter, Celtic or Cheslea: "WE know how to unlock you. It's not going to work anymore!"

And for us, as Timbers fans, it's validation that we're not coming in on the tail end of a dying approach to the game. A fluid, possession-based attacking game is STILL capable of unlocking the toughest defensive tactics that exist.

I couldn't be more thrilled to have had my prediction fall flat.

But as a fan of attacking, passing football, I am glad I was wrong.

So what was different about today?

But tactically there were also some tweaks.

And it worked.

Today's result is huge for TWO reasons.

1. It gives Barcelona the confidence that they can still create and finish enough chances against a tough, bunkered defense to not only win, but to dominate.

2. It sends a HUGE message to any other team that wants to pull a Inter, Celtic or Cheslea: "WE know how to unlock you. It's not going to work anymore!"

You cannot stop us: 5 points to remain supporters, not detractors

TimberGreen — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 16:58:28 -0000

The results from our second game of the season were disappointing, no doubt, after we had reveled in our inspired, unstoppable attack in the 2nd half in week one.

The start to this season appears worse than our start last year (win at home, loss on the road in 2012, compared to a tie and a loss at home in 2013).

But let's put things in perspective. To borrow a sentiment from Kevin Alexander, we are starting over right now. This is essentially an expansion team again. New coach. New set of players. New system. Timbers 1.0 didn't work, so we try again with version 2.0.

Fans like me often talked about our work in the 2nd half of last season, hoping that it would help us hit the ground running in 2013. But given the number of player moves we made in the offseason, and the fact that 7 of our starters this year are new to the team, it really is a complete restart.

What this team needs is time. And patience. A LOT of time and patience.

So what can we do as fans to help our team stay the course and keep the faith in the face of mixed early results in a brand new system with brand new players? How can we do our little part to help avoid a repeat of the wild tactical and player shuffling, and eventual scrapping of the system, we saw with Timbers 1.0?

Here are five points of support I think we need:

1. Demand a competent attack, refuse to accept conservatism: MLS is a conservative league, but the quality of our players is rapidly on the rise, and with that, the ability of attacking football to succeed is increasing. We can either be ahead of that curve or behind it. We should emphasize this forward-thinking approach OVER the desire to WIN GAMES NOW. Patience with a competent attacking system WILL pay dividends in the future, if not by the end of this season.

2. Grow a THICK SKIN and be patient: prepare yourself, mentally, to stomach difficult losses. They are going to happen along the way, and they may happen even more at home for awhile than we've been accustomed to. Hopefully that will partially be offset by better form on the road, but those wins are not as fun for us, the fans. Accept it. That doesn't mean bad results won't hurt. It ALWAYS hurts. There's no way to get rid of that sick feeling in your stomach after a loss. But it DOES mean we weather that feeling, find ways to get over games and get ourselves back up and back in the stands week in and week out.

3. Pretend this is our first year in MLS: even in the face of tough losses, we must support our players and our coach. We did this well at first when the team joined MLS. With time, expectations have grown. This is fair, but reality hasn't kept up. And we're not the first team that has had to scrap our first plan and try again. We have to power through, show up and sing our hearts out to the end, even when the results are lacking. It's hard, but we have to get back to the mindset of a fledgling expansion team trying to put things together over the course of a first season, because in practice, that is sort of what we are. In most MLS markets, the fans start disappearing after the kind of reset and initial struggles in phase 2.0 that we are experiencing. But we're not most MLS fanbases. Are we?

4. Refuse to become negative and condescending: it's fair to go on comment boards and vent our frustrations, but in the stands, we need to support our players and our coach with unwavering persistence. And as far as possible, let's focus our criticism on execution instead of targeting the system itself in these early stages.

5. Apply the right kind of pressure: we buy the tickets and go to the games. As the customers, we DO apply pressure to our players, our coach, and our ownership. We DO influence their thinking, even if they like to think we don't. Let's recognize the value of the way this team is currently set up and put the right kind of pressure on everyone. This SHOULD NOT be pressure to make big changes every time we under-perform. This SHOULD be pressure to be persistent and believe in our new plan and system. To believe that time will put the pieces together, if we can power through the tough lessons and tough results in the short-term.

Swansea City is an ancient Welsh club that had never made it to top flight in English football. After decades of floating around in the lower divisions, things REALLY began to unravel and the Swans were facing dissolution.

But the supporters loved their lowly team, and refused to let that happen. They stepped in and formed a trust to bail the club out and craft a new technical plan. The Swans began to slowly rebuild with a clear identity and playing style. Gradually they worked their way up through the divisions in English football. Coaches and players came and went (often getting stolen away by wealthier teams) but the identity remained the same and the team slowly, slowly climbed. In 2011-12, they rocked the premiere league by finishing in the mid-table in their FIRST-EVER season at the top level. And they did it playing a competent, attractive, possession-based game.

The odds to success that Swansea City faced in the English Football Association were FAR greater than anything we face in MLS. But the Swans did it, in part, because they had a patient, dedicated, and intelligent fanbase that supported them without pause over a decade as they SLOWLY built their system into success.

It's not going to take a decade for the Timbers to find success, even if our plan is one that will take a little longer to start seeing the results than a more conservative approach. But if the Swansea City fans can wait nearly 10 years just to win promotion to the top flight, don't you think we can wait a season or two to get to the MLS Cup playoffs?

If we pay attention, resolve patience, educate ourselves on the game we love to root for, and share our hopeful sentiments and rationale with our fellow fans whenever possible, I think we can keep this fanbase together in a way that supports our team and powers them forward, rather than tearing them apart.

And the results WILL come. It's just a matter of time.

The results from our second game of the season were disappointing, no doubt, after we had reveled in our inspired, unstoppable attack in the 2nd half in week one.

The start to this season appears worse than our start last year (win at home, loss on the road in 2012, compared to a tie and a loss at home in 2013).

What this team needs is time. And patience. A LOT of time and patience.

Here are five points of support I think we need:

And the results WILL come. It's just a matter of time.

Gavin Wilkinson: Is He Finally There?

TimberGreen — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 22:29:58 -0000

I've developed a reputation for defending Gavin Wilkinson, even as I've acknowledged that he's made some poor decisions.

I'm realizing that Diego Chara may actually be one of them (credit to #1 Leverage Fan's correction of a misguided statement I made about Chara's DP status for the inspiration of this post). Not that Diego isn't a good player that we should keep and utilize. He's under contract and he fits the system well, so he, personally, should be commended. But of all the things I've learned about the Timbers over the past few years, it somehow eluded me until today that we'd forked over $2 million to bring Chara to PDX. THAT is too much money for Chara's abilities, even if he does prove to be "one of the better" d-mids in the league. Gavin also brought him in on an attacking platform and that part of Chara's resume has fallen flat.

We can debate players all day, regarding who GW's guys were and who Spencer's recruits were. What I think we would all agree on, is that prior to this last offseason, the sum of GW's player moves have left him's in the red.

My theory is this. Gavin fancied himself as an unusually brilliant mind who could blow everyone away with his scouting and hiring abilities. He couldn't wait to show the fans and Merritt what a good team he could build for MLS. The last two year's have been a harsh learning experience for him. He's had to swallow his pride and speak well of the fans, even as they called for his head. He's found out more about the players he recruited, sometimes to his disadvantage. He's found out more about the quality of other MLS teams. He's realized that MLS is an evolving league with a growing reputation, meaning each year year, new talent arrives and the quality gets better. So he's learned that what was good enough in 2012 isn't necessarily good enough in 2013.

Gavin has likely had to admit to himself that he'd gone about some things wrong. He's had to "get all the stupidities out of [his] head". He's had to let go of many of the things he controlled, and bend over backwards to lure a guy who probably had some pretty strong personal stipulations to taking an MLS job. He had to let go of his dream of being seen as the brilliant guy, and instead, focus on simply becoming a good manager.

His willingness to do this is probably part of the reason Merritt Paulson has stuck with him, even in the face of a fanbase that was calling for his head. But can he keep it up?

Gavin Wilkinson's future hinges on three people. 1. Caleb Porter. 2. Diego Valeri. 3. Gavin Wilkinson.

1. Caleb Porter: he was hard to get. Gavin got him. He's probably the most impressive Gavin-hire ever. Sure, Gavin probably had some help. But Porter wasn't going to take any job, and Gavin did enough to ensure the conditions were right for Caleb. But with all of Caleb's accolades come VERY high expectations, and if Caleb's efforts fall flat, Gavin is in just as much, if not more trouble than Caleb will be.

2. Diego Valeri: he is, for all intents and purposes, a Gavin recruit. That doesn't mean Gavin discovered the guy. It's possible he did. It's possible Caleb or someone else from the team did, and Gavin simply went to see him, said, "Looks amazing, but what do you think Caleb?" But it is plausible that Gavin was a big part of it, given his many trips to South America. Gavin certainly gets some credit for making a transaction happen for a player of that caliber. So certainly, he will bear at least part of the benefit or brunt of Valeri's success or failure in MLS. FInally, if Valeri succeeds THIS year, we have to have what it takes to keep him around for AT LEAST another year. He is only on loan and I have no idea what kind of flexibility exists in the option to buy him at year's end.

3. Gavin, himself: Mr. Wilkinson needs to look to Toronto FC's Kevin Payne for an example of how NOT to work with a brilliant coach. Kevin Payne is NOT a complete disaster as a manager, by any means. But the enormously successful DC United of the late '90s did appear to suffer in the following decade because of Kevin's ego. He is said to have had a sketchy relationship with Bruce Arena that may have been damaging to Arena's interest in staying with the team, or coming back to it after coaching the USMNT. He's also said to failed to get Caleb Porter in 2009 because he wouldn't give up control of certain aspects of the team. Brilliant coaches come with big demands. You have to agree to do things they're way. Gavin has pulled that off and gotten Caleb. But it also takes a lot to keep a guy like Caleb on board. Gavin has to back up his promises, let Caleb be Caleb, and continue to cater the team to him, even when things aren't going as well as everyone thinks they should. If the team IS eventually successful, he has to maintain a respectful and productive relationship with Caleb. And if things go enormously well, Gavin has to keep Caleb in an environment that he is inclined to stay in for awhile. If he's successful but not happy, there will be other opportunities that give him an easy out, as the USMNT did for Bruce Arena. Gavin also needs to be a true learner. The mistakes he has made in the past are INVALUABLE learning tools, which is why I personally think you keep him on board. However, that is only true if he actually uses those tools to learn, and many fans with more history than I seem to have doubts about his ability or willingness to do that.

If Caleb improves the team, Valeri remains brilliant on the pitch, and Gavin maintains a constructive working relationship with Caleb, it will be time for all of us to admit that he's leveraged his mistakes to improve and become a decent manager. If things fall apart yet again, it's time for Merritt to try someone else in the GM role.

Until then, I commend the #GWOut folks for taking it easy and focusing on the positives we think we have in Caleb Porter. We may not all agree about what kind of GM potential GW has, but most of us have a lot of hope in Caleb Porter as a coach, and Diego Valeri as a legitimate DP.

Here's to a quick learning curve and eventual success for a revamped Timbers in 2013!

Amateur Tactician: Tiki Taka is dead. Long live Tiki Taka.

TimberGreen — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 22:27:08 -0000

I pray that my title is a lie. Tiki Taka is the most exciting form of the game we've seen, and one would hope it can be adapted into something workable that's just as exciting, if not more.

That being said, Pep, we have a problem.

In 2010, Jose Mourinho's Inter Milan did the unthinkable. They beat Barcelona in the Champions league playing a rigid, defensive, counterattacking game in the first leg to take it 3-1, then completely bunkering down in the 2nd and walling out the Catalan attack, holding Messi and crew to just one goal, not enough to overcome the deficit.

But Pep Guardiola was ready with some tweaks. He unloaded traditional #9 Zlatan Ibrahimovich, and created a genius little position we now call the false-9, putting Lionel Messi at center forward by default, but giving him almost free range in the attacking half. Barcelona won the Champions League in 2011. And the Copa Del Rey. And La Liga. And the Club World Cup. And the Super Cup. No One could figure out how to shut this team down.

Until Chelsea and Robert DiMatteo adapted Mourinho's defensive approach and surprised Barca again.

Each time this happens, everyone sees it as a fluke. A combination of good luck and sheer will power by the underdog who pulls it off.

We were all even more astounded when Celtic pulled it off in group play during the current UCL cycle. But again, Barca didn't finish chances, and had inexplicable defensive meltdowns. They could have won it, right?

Enter AC Milan. They are not Barcelona in terms of technical quality and chemistry. But they are a team on a roll. And this time, they not only beat Barca, they beat them CONVINCINGLY.

Check out the shots statistics below. In each case you can see that Barca took more shots, put more shots on goal than their opponents, even as they lost or tied the series.

Until today. AC Milan just changed all that.

(shots[shots on goal])goals - goals([shots on goal]shots)

2010 -Leg 1--Barca (10[6])1 - 3([4]9) Inter Milan
2010 -Leg 2--Barca (16[7])1 - 0(0[0]) Inter Milan

2012 -Leg 1--Barca (28[10])2 - 1([1]6) Celtic
2012 -Leg 2--Barca (25[8])1 - 2([3]5) Celtic

2013 -Leg 1--Barca (7[1])0 - 2([3]8) AC Milan
2013 -Leg 2---TBD, but I predict AC Milan holds onto their advantage and eliminates Barca, unless Tito decides to abandon ideology for at least one game.

THIS TIME, we can no longer consider this defensive approach a fluke. For the first time, despite ceding possession for most of the game, Barcelona was resoundingly defeated with this tactic. They weren't simply outscored. AC Milan actually took more shots and put more shots on frame than Barcelona did. They COMLETELY snuffed out the Barcelona attack. There were no mind-blowing goalkeeper saves. No missed penalties. No shots pinging off the crossbar. There was simply no attack. Period. From Barcelona. They would get the ball into the final third and get dispossessed or intercepted, almost EVERY time.

In previous games, we could say Barcelona dominated, but just couldn't finish their chances and made key defensive errors. This time, AC Milan's goals were not scored from defensive meltdowns. They were brilliantly executed counterattacks involving multiple players and passes. And while Barca dominated possession yet again, they had NOTHING even remotely dangerous in the final third.

What does this mean for the Timbers? Well, probably not much. Caleb Porter, even with all his talk about playing a more proactive, possession game, vocally acknowledges that we aren't Barcelona. He clearly recognizes the closeness of the competition in MLS, and the tactical flexibility required to ensure a winning franchise. We recognize this as we see the Timbers scrambling to replace the injured Bright Dike, a traditional #9 who scores by getting in behind defenses, or throwing his weight around in the box and winning headers from service.

This ain't no false-9. This is Major League Soccer, where the San Jose Earthquakes score a league-dominating 72 goals in a season with two rhino's and a poacher in the box. Porter clearly knows this. So even if we play a pretty, possession, passing game, we know we might have to start serving it up to the big man in the box against some teams in order to break through their stubborn brick walls.

2013 should be a fascinating one for us. A lot has changed and there's work to do, but it seems we're pointed in a better direction, with a better system that should be more fun to watch, even as we may need to have some tactical flexing for specific situations.

And even if we're not on a world stage at this point, it will be fascinating to keep one eye on the continued evolution of the game on the greatest stage, and the ebb and flow between tactical defensive geniuses, and creative, attack-minded gurus.

Everything that happens at that stage trickles down to how our team has to look at the game. Even if the lessons are not always directly relevant, there's always something useful to take away, and I guarantee you Porter is doing that.

Mourinho-realized or not, today's result for AC Milan was the culmination of a Mourinho concept conceived back in 2010, that has slowly, sporadically involved into something that will finally be recognized as a legitimate way to shut down the Tiki Taka.

Does Tito Vilanova have any ideas up his sleeve, or is it still the current form of Tiki Taka to the death? How about Mr. Guardiola? He's had his year off, and will be taking over Bayern Munich soon. Despite his vacation from the game, I doubt he has been completely removed from it. He's been watching. You know it. And his wheels are spinning as he tries to figure out HOW he can produce the next great innovation in attacking football, to counter what has just come to full fruition from the defensive geniuses.

The Italians have played their piece, and it's a clever one. I'm doubtful that Tito Vilanova has the antidote--at least not in time for the home leg against AC Milan.

Your move, Pep.

I pray that my title is a lie. Tiki Taka is the most exciting form of the game we've seen, and one would hope it can be adapted into something workable that's just as exciting, if not more.

Check out the shots statistics below. In each case you can see that Barca took more shots, put more shots on goal than their opponents, even as they lost or tied the series.

Until today. AC Milan just changed all that.

(shots[shots on goal])goals - goals([shots on goal]shots)

2010 -Leg 1--Barca (10[6])1 - 3([4]9) Inter Milan
2010 -Leg 2--Barca (16[7])1 - 0(0[0]) Inter Milan

2012 -Leg 1--Barca (28[10])2 - 1([1]6) Celtic
2012 -Leg 2--Barca (25[8])1 - 2([3]5) Celtic

2013 -Leg 1--Barca (7[1])0 - 2([3]8) AC Milan
2013 -Leg 2---TBD, but I predict AC Milan holds onto their advantage and eliminates Barca, unless Tito decides to abandon ideology for at least one game.

The possession game: does it really help you win games?

TimberGreen — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 19:57:00 -0000

"I plan to bring a defensive style to the team that cedes possession, allows our opponents to dictate the pace, and waits for an opportune counterattacking chance."

Said no incoming coach, EVER.

So none of us should be surprised to hear Caleb Porter say, " . . . we must move towards being a proactive and attack-oriented team that is looking to dictate games with possession and high-pressure defending," even if we didn't know his history (see the full Portland Timbers interview with Porter here if you haven't already).

But given that historically, the team that wins possession in MLS more often loses the game, I'm still wanting to know what statistics show this. I'm not saying Porter is wrong---I think he has something legitimate that he bases that statement on.

But I'm having trouble finding those stats.

I have a theory, but I can't find the stats I need to prove it. My theory is this:

TIME ON THE BALL is key. When you don't have the ball, you don't get real game experience with passing and dribbling. You can't build your team's offensive confidence and chemistry when you're only seeing the ball in short, fast windows of time where only 3-4 players get touches.

You still need the right players to make it work. Obviously, teams like Colorado, Toronto FC and New England, played to dictate the pace and still struggled to get onto the winning track. For them, playing a more defensive, counterattacking style might have been able to get them a few more wins than they had, but ultimately, their problems won't be solved without addressing deficiencies in the squad or other strategic issues.

Maybe, if you have the players to be a winning squad in MLS, you are best going into most of your games aiming to possess the ball as much as possible, if you want to realize your full potential over the long haul. It seems that while there are a lot of bottom-feeder teams trying to win defensively and failing, there are not many top-level teams that cede possession more often than not. Even SKC, a team who's strengths were mostly defensive last year, won the possession game often--sometimes by large margins.

Does anyone else have any thoughts, or better, yet, statistics, that would shed some light on the issue of possession, and why it's important to the bigger picture (or not)?

Caleb Porter: There’s probably no other MLS team I would have left for.

TimberGreen — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 04:27:40 -0000

Indeed. Of course "special" in this case, appears to mean completely useless. Part of what draws Caleb to this job is that he gets to build from the ground up, because, as we all know, we are still at the ground level with this team. For us, that sucks. At least, right now it does. But for him, it's means he's got the whole slate to work with. He's not trying to carry on a legacy. He's not trying to fit himself into a system that was already established. There is no legacy, which means he can start the painting with the sketch. He's got the canvas all to himself.

Assuming, of course, that Gavin and Merritt are actually going to let him do it, and give him time to get over the bumps.

Read more of Caleb's fascinating interview with Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beakon Journal
here.

He's finally free to talk about Portland, and boy is he talking!

Needless to say, it sounded flattering when I first read his statement, "There’s probably no other MLS team I would have left for."

Wow. We must really have something special here, yeah? Indeed. Of course "special" in this case, appears to mean completely useless. Part of what draws Caleb to this job is that he gets to build from the ground up, because, as we all know, we are still at the ground level with this team. For us, that sucks. At least, right now it does. But for him, it's means he's got the whole slate to work with. He's not trying to carry on a legacy. He's not trying to fit himself into a system that was already established. There is no legacy, which means he can start the painting with the sketch. He's got the canvas all to himself.

Assuming, of course, that Gavin and Merritt are actually going to let him do it, and give him time to get over the bumps.

Read more of Caleb's fascinating interview with Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beakon Journal here.

El Trencito is the new Peter Vermes

TimberGreen — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 16:55:54 -0000

Seriously, this sounds like a ridiculous comparison, and it probably is.

But, I want to draw attention to one striking similarity.

Determination, and the willingness to go to unusual lengths to gain the respect you deserve.

It wasn't long ago that Mr. Valencia made his debut with the Timbers reserves, and made a bit of a stir by bumping a teammate off the ball, taking possession, and getting a shot off.

Former US National Team pioneer and current Sporting Kansas City Coach, Peter Vermes, revealed through a post by Roger Bennett on ESPN's Relegation Zone blog, that he did the exact same thing in his first training session in Europe.

And it was a game-changer for him.

"I went to training on first day and was inserted into a reserve 11 that took on the first team. For the first eight minutes none of the players would pass me the ball, so I wised up, waited for one of my teammates to gain possession, then shouldered him off the ball, ran 40 yards and blasted it at goal. That changed things."

Vermes started getting passes, scored a goal, then was shifted to the 1st team and scored another.

And his European career was off and running.

The entire post is a very well-done profile of Peter Vermes, a fascinating fellow with a pretty amazing history of triumph and pain in the context of the early days of American soccer's emergence in the world scene. It's definitely worth a read.

Amateur Tactician: Barca, Look to San Jose (?!?!?!?!!!!!)

TimberGreen — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 21:00:13 -0000

Roberto Di Matteo may go down in history as one of the great tactical innovators. What he accomplished, with Chelsea, in eliminating Barcelona from the last UEFA Champions League tournament, was even more shocking and befuddling than what Mourinho and AC Milan had done to them two years earlier.

His defense baffled another great tactical innovator of our time, Barca Coach Pep Guardiola, causing him to lament after the game, "I looked at what we have done wrong to tell the players, and cannot find anything."

As analysts have discovered with time, Di Matteo's tactic was simple, in theory. Keep most of the team behind the ball. Defend space in a zone, in and around the box, and shield out the offense. Let them pass it around the perimeter of the box, but keep so many guys behind the ball in a zonal defense that there isn't enough space between them for Barca to penetrate the ball through into the box without getting it cleared out.

Guardiola, who is taking a year off from football, is probably hunkered away somewhere, no doubt seeking a lot of non-football time to recharge his batteries, but ultimately failing to completely tear his mind away. I imagine he pulls out the game tape time and time again and watches, trying to solve the puzzle . . . how do we get through a stationary pyramid of 9-10 players crowding the entrance to the box? There's got to be a way!

He's a brilliant mind, and I think he'll find a brilliant solution. I look forward to seeing it, wherever it may play out.

One thing is for sure, though. Barca's new coach, Tito Vilanova, certainly hasn't gotten very far, assuming he's on his own quest to find a similar solution.

I caught the last 15 minutes of the Barca-Celtic match during my lunch break today. Like Guardiola before him, Vilanova had Barcelona pass and pass and pass around the perimeter of the box, but they were mostly unable to penetrate consistently against Celtic.

Barca actually won this game in exciting fashion, 30 seconds before time, as Adriano found Jordi Alba with a last ditch serve towards the back post. But the fact that they were 30 seconds from being tied by Celtic, AT CAMP NOU, is not something they are happy with, I guarantee you.

Today we learned that the answer to the question of whether or not Barca has an antidote to the Di Matteo disease, is a resounding NO thus far.

What is scary for Barca, is that Vilanova waited even longer than Guardiola did to revert to the old "serve it up" plan. We never saw the central defenders start entering the box as forwards. And yet, ultimately, the way they got the winner, was STILL, on a defender winning the ball on a service.

Certainly, most teams who try to park the bus against Barca are going to lose. But with the odds already against them, they give themselves a chance by parking the bus. With some exceptionally disciplined defending, and a little luck, they keep most penetration out of the box, and watch Barca blow the limited close-range chances they DO get.

While this may not be a problem in a marathon season where the team with the most points at the end of the year wins, it DOES pose a threat in an elimination tournament like the UEFA Champions League. Barca will face this scenario over and over again, given the tactic's success for Chelsea last year, and odds are, eventually, Barca is going to stumble somewhere along the line. Last year it was in the semi-finals. This year, it nearly happened in the first round, and we'll see what Celtic can do in the second match-up IN SCOTLAND. And, of course, for us MLS fans, our most important league championship IS an elimination tournament . . . the MLS Cup.

What is the solution?

While great professional minds Vilanova and Guardiola burn the midnight oil trying to figure out how to one-up the defensive geniuses, this amateur tactician is going to have his own stab at it, just for fun.

I personally think Barcelona is right to aim to attack the game and dictate the pace. They are right to see possession as an asset. They are right to keep it mostly on the ground with shorter, higher percentage passes. They are right to play an attractive game that displays their players skillsets and entertains the fans. All of these aspects bolster their ability to be a recognizable brand, gain a vast following, and maximize the ability of their players to continue to develop, even at the professional level.

Where they are wrong, is in their overly-religious rigidity in their final combinations before a strike.

THAT is where they have to diversify a little more.

Barca prefers not to get it done in the air. Sure, they serve in the occasional ball, but not often. They want to penetrate through the middle on the ground, with accurate passing and teamwork. They're not afraid to counterattack either, but this is rarely even possible against an opposition that is keeping 9-10 guys behind the ball at all times.

What they are missing is the aerial game around the box. THAT is what they must start using that more often, to balance out their arsenal of offensive weapons.

Of course, to do this effectively, they need to return to a Zlatan Ibrahimovich type player. A big, strong, yet highly skilled forward who can play up and down the field in a wider position, but can also move into the middle and battle in the box when the opposition's tactics call for it.

If we've learned anything from the hated San Jose Earthquakes this year, it's this. Having a ruthless big man in the middle who can fight for headers (Lenhart/Gordon) can get you a lot of goals, even against a bunkered defense. It can also free up extra space for your smaller, more technical players (Wondo) to do what they do best.

I'd argue that even an elite squad like Barcelona can learn a valuable tweak from San Jose--YES, a team from the lowly MLS--without having to completely replicate their style (thank God!).

Get an Ibrahimovic-type forward who is both highly skilled AND ruthless. Stick with the 4-3-3 for the most part, but allow it to flex into a 4-2-4 as the occasion calls, with the big guy moving from outside forward to the middle and Messi as a recessed forward behind him.

The wingers then serve from the wing more often to diversify and balance out their mix of final passes. They aim for the big forward who patrols the center wins headers to put on frame.

But what does that mean for Messi and his widely-lauded false 9 role?

Messi keeps his role, for the most part, but tweaks it in these specific games. He penetrates to the right or left of the big man, pushing one of the outside forwards wider, which, in turn, pushes an outside defender (Alves or Alba) back towards midfield and guard against the counter.

This does TWO things. It takes some weight off Messi, allowing him more room to work his magic as the big guy draws extra defensive attention, and relieving him of the burden to be the scoring savior in every single game.

But how is Barca going to get the ball forward with only two mids? Easy. They have no trouble getting it forward on the ground with 3 mids against a pressure defense. There's no reason a 2-man midfield, with help from Messi and the wing-backs, can't get it forward against a team that's not pressuring as much, but rather sitting back and waiting for them to bring it.

What about attractive football? Wouldn't this make the game uglier? No. Sure, there will be more errant final passes at first, but also more goals. As the goals start to add up, there will be more space for quality ground passing. As simple and direct as aerial service to a target big man can be, it's NOT more boring to watch than a team incessantly passing around the perimeter, but almost never penetrating.

Most importantly, this 4-2-4 with aerial service to a big man in the middle becomes a rare necessity for the times when teams are effectively parking the bus, and even rarer as it renders the Di Matteo style defense a foilable tactic, and teams start to abandon it altogether.

I think we can all agree, the sooner we can make the Di Matteo defense go away, the better. In the mean time, Di Matteo certainly deserves credit as yet another Italian with some defensive genius up his sleeve, ugly as it may be. It's a particularly astounding feat for a coach that is actually all about offense most of the time.

So, how does this apply to the Timbers, and our quest to play a more dominant, fluid brand of football?

It means a guy like Bright Dike should have a role next year, in my opinion, and I'm hopeful that Caleb Porter's new system won't be so ideological that it doesn't include that. Heck, now that I think about it, maybe Kris Boyd could still have a role too. From what I've seen of his system, there may already be room for such a tweak, so I'm optimistic.

Bottom line. If Barcelona could benefit from a tactic used by a team like San Jose, WE certainly can too.

But as I reread this, I can't help but think there may be a few holes in this amateur tactician's logic.

So throw rocks . . . I'm interested to hear what others think about this.

Chivas, attractive football, and the coaching X factor

TimberGreen — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 17:45:57 -0000

It's very sad to see a promising young coach, Chivas USA's Robin Fraser, falling into the same pattern of desperate systemic flux, that we saw under guys like Spencer and Winter, before they were inevitably fired.

After a long, and fairly unsuccessful stretch of hyper-defensive football, Chivas has suddenly gone on the attack for the last three games. They've put up some impressive possession and passing numbers, but the state that ultimately matters, the final score, has been worse than ever:

vs. Vancouver

-Possession: 68%

-Passing Accuracy: 89%

-Result: loss, 0-4

vs. Salt Lake

-Possession: 51%

-Passing Accuracy: 87%

-Result: Loss, 0-4

vs. DC

-Possession: 58%

-Passing Accuracy: 86%

-Result: Loss, 0-1

What I see in coaches who revert to desperate systemic experimenting, is an inability to get to the bottom of issues. They haven't been able dig deeper and truly identify where the teams problems originate.

Hopefully this is just a temporary setback for Fraser as he tries to instill a new way of playing that will take time to improve. But the fact that he was so unsuccessful with the defensive approach is not a good sign for how well he'll do at getting the new system to work, if he actually even has the guts to try to stick with it.

Great coaches are the ones that know how to dig deep and find those answers. In soccer we've seen this from guys like Jason Kreis and Peter Vermes. In American football, I think of Tony Dungy and Jim Harbaugh, guys who turned their teams completely around without overhauling the roster.

My fear for Fraser, is that he doesn't have that skill. After two seasons, an 11 game winless streak, 7 losses in a row, and only three games left in the season, Fraser's time has about run out. I predict he'll be gone at the end of the season.

Ultimately, there are coaches who make direct football work, and coaches who make attractive football work. But what they all have in common, is the ability to go deeper than just what's happening on the field and help the players and the team identify the deeper physical and psychological aspects that are affecting their performances.

The coaching X factor is that ability to dig down and actually find the deepest roots of the problems.

Does Caleb Porter have this ability? I hope so. He's said to be big on deep statistical analysis and it appears he's translated that to effective play at Akron, but is he good enough to translate that to the professional level? Time will tell.

For now, we're fortunate that GW and McAuley have actually done a decent job getting to the bottom of issues and getting this team on some kind of an upward progression. And it's a bonus that they've done it playing a more attractive style. Compared to Chivas, our possession game has been able to create chances. Chivas has very few real scoring chances to show for all that passing and possession. With midfielders like Joseph and LaBrocca, and forwards like Agudelo and Angel, that should not be as big a problem as it is, and it may be too late for Fraser to figure that out and fix it.

vs. Vancouver

-Possession: 68%

-Passing Accuracy: 89%

-Result: loss, 0-4

vs. Salt Lake

-Possession: 51%

-Passing Accuracy: 87%

-Result: Loss, 0-4

vs. DC

-Possession: 58%

-Passing Accuracy: 86%

-Result: Loss, 0-1

A supporter-owned Timbers?

TimberGreen — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 18:17:21 -0000

Maybe it's a long shot, but THIS article got me thinking. I encourage you to give it a read.

At the very least, I'm guessing this would only happen in the not-so-near future. As far as I know, supporter ownership has never existed in MLS, a league where three guys once owned all the teams.

But I can't help but think that it would be cool if the Timbers Army had a supporter's trust that owned, or partially owned Timbers somewhere down the road.

What do you think? Would this ever be possible? What aspects of the team, and of football in general, would our supporters culture need to become more attuned to and educated about to do this successfully?

And now I must hide before Merritt Paulson's hit men figure out who I am.

Are we the next Toronto FC or RSL?

TimberGreen — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 17:52:58 -0000

John Spencer was fired.

Gavin Wilkinson, in his first game after taking over as interim coach, appeared to have told the players, "Today, I want to see how our skills translate on the field. Forget about defense, just go out their and show me how much attacking flair you've got."

It was pretty on offense, but, of course, the defense wasn't there to back it up, so despite scoring three goals, we gave up five and lost the game.

Subsequent games have been a bit more practical, as expected, but the general trend is still, by far, more about creativity, ground passing, and flow, than the direct, speedy, attacking style we had tried, and generally, failed to play previously.

With the hire of Caleb Porter, there's no doubt the Timbers front office are pushing for a more attractive, passing and pressing style of play. I'm all for it---I'm one of the fans who has been wishing for this all along.

Various teams in Major League Soccer have tried this, to varying degrees of success, but generally, MLS is pretty diverse---no single brand of soccer has risen clearly to the top, but if MLS has a reputation, the words that probably come to mind are "speed", "athleticism" and "physicality".

Compare that with another mid-tier league, the Eredivisie in the Netherlands, where possession, technical skills, disciplined ground-passing, "4-3-3" and "Total Football" are clearly emphasized by a large number of clubs.

Enter Aron Winter, a high-profile transport into MLS from top Eredivisie club, Ajax Amsterdam. Ajax is a frequent champion in the Netherlands and a regular force in the UEFA Champions League. No team is more associated with the term Total Football than Ajax. The system, inspired by the Hungarian National Team of the '50s, was developed and refined into a real footballing system by Rinus Michels, with Ajax and the Dutch National Team. It gained success in the late '60s and early '70s as the system that finally broke through against Italy's famous Catenaccio defense. Total Football's system of positional interchange to create and exploit the spaces, tore Italy's defensive system apart, and effectively erased it from the playbooks of Europe's higher levels of the game.

With Aron Winter's arrival in Toronto, came the arrival of the first successful application of Total Football in North America.

Or not.

What we've seen over the last couple years has been another page in a disaster story of epic proportions. A big club with a big fanbase, willing to spend big money on high-profile players, once again, unable to rise from the bottom of the MLS Eastern Conference table.

So clearly, Total Football is impossible in MLS.

Right?

Are MLS players just not reliable enough with their passing and field vision to pull it off? Seems plausible. Are the physical and defensive elements of MLS so good that a well executed system of Total Football won't work here? That is very doubtful. Transplant Ajax into MLS and they'd dominate.

Or does the problem have little or nothing to do with Total Football?

Was it simply the coaching abilities of Aron Winter, or the strategy of the Toronto FO?

First of all, Toronto FC got off to a terrible start. An expansion team in 2008, their first coach, Mo Johnson, lasted just over a year. Since then, it's been coach after coach, new batch of players after new batch of players.

In 2010, it finally looked like the team might get it right. Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (MLSE), Toronto's ownership group, hired former German soccer star and coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, and his consulting firm, to put a legitimate plan together. Klinsmann helped the club identify a playing style and a coach that matched it. The team decided on a more open, passing, attacking approach, and brought in Winter, an Ajax assistant and former player, to take the reigns and implement the new system.

Under Winter, Toronto implemented a 4-3-3 based on patience, passing, and the Total Football fluidity that Ajax is famous for. They spent a lot of money on designated players and other personnel that Winter thought would fit his system.

The results? More of the same. A dismal start to 2011. A promising run near the end of the season, only to be followed by an even MORE dismal start to 2012.

But there was one thing that DID go right for Winter. Toronto somehow managed to defy their MLS form by playing well in the Canadian Championship tournament (two titles), and, more impressively, the CONCACAF Champions League---making it all the way to the semi-finals before losing to Mexican side Santos Laguna, who is arguably the top club in the CONCACAF region.

So despite Winter's MLS failure, he left with more hardware than any previous Toronto coach.

So was the firing of Winter, earlier this year, justified? Probably. Ultimately, MLS is the most important area of activity for Toronto FC, and success there needs to happen more than anywhere else. Like John Spencer, Winter's tenure was plagued with reactionary lineup and tactical shifts, and a general inability to identify the details of what was going wrong. This created a complete lack of any clear progress. Even worse, the players Winter and the Toronto FO brought in proved to be a poor match for the Total Football system. Their stars were too specialized. Their buildup passing wasn't consistent and accurate enough. Bench players were not good and complete enough to step in and execute their roles in the fluid, 4-3-3, when they were needed to cover for injured starters.

Ultimately, Winter's failure is three-fold. 1) the inability to use the MLSE's big money to get the RIGHT designated players to maximize his system (whether that's entirely on him, or on the FO, I'm not sure), 2) too much emphasis on buying, not enough on developing talent to eventually succeed in the system, and 3) impatience . . . whether directly from Winter, or coming down from the top of a panicking FO that felt pressured to reward it's long-suffering fans, Winter couldn't keep his lineup consistent enough to build long-term progress, and develop enough good young bench players to step in and be effective when others were injured. He even began to revert to a hyper-defensive style at times to try to eek out a win, but even those efforts failed.

Often, Winter's demeanor and post-game comments appeared astonished and clueless, like he couldn't get to the bottom of what was plaguing his players ineffectiveness, or what wasn't working about his system. It may just have been a quirk of how he carried himself, or maybe he really was at a loss. I don't know, but some people just aren't cut out to be effective at analyzing and getting to the bottom of issues.

The sad thing about Toronto's journey is that, with the departure of Winter, the whole system went out the door. All of the philosophy and systemic planning the club did with Jurgen Klinsmann? Gone.

It's one thing to throw out your system after your first year and a half. But Toronto is in it's 6th season now. Toronto has played a direct, 4-4-2 system for years with no success. Yet after the failures under Winter's more fluid 4-3-3, what did Toronto do? They went right back to their tried and false 4-4-2. They grabbed a few wins at first, and it looked brilliant, but ultimately, they are now right back to losing just as they were before, with new coach Paul Mariner recently flipping out at his players to the media.

Aron Winter was likely part of the problem. An impatient FO was probably a part of it as well, as Winter may not have had the patience he needed to build consistency and develop his team into something that could succeed in his system. Total Football, in it's most rigid form, was probably also to blame, though I believe it could have been tweaked and adapted to something that would work in MLS.

But ultimately, firing Winter will make no difference, because the club's direction as a whole remains steeped in impatience and inconsistency. Back-and-forth tactics. Frequent lineup changes. Frequent roster changes. Seven coaches in six seasons. Paul Mariner is just another coach in the carousal who's days are numbered.

Though Toronto probably needed to fire Winter, they shouldn't have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. Not after all the planning they went through with Klinsmann's firm. They should have gone BACK to Klinsmann and said, OK, lets dig deep and figure out the specifics of why this didn't work, and figure out if there's a way to TWEAK the current system to make us better for the future.

It seems they concluded that the system, in it's entirety, was the problem, but unfortunately that may be an oversimplification that sets them up to fail, yet again, under another system.

Portland just underwent a big change. It's unclear if our new philosophy was simply due to the coaching change, or whether there was a change higher up. But I think the most likely story is that Gavin Wilkinson has probably changed. He may have started with the goal of playing an attacking style (who doesn't?). But early on, I think he and Spencer both thought this would work with an exciting, direct attack that relied on speed and strength----getting the ball forward fast and going for goal quickly..They were thinking, "none of this beating-around-the-bush passing around the box, searching for a weakness in the defense---lets get down fast and get goals!" After that failed to get to the goals very often, and the addition of Kris Boyd made the system worse, not better, Wilkinson likely concluded that a more fluid system would be more effective in playing an attacking style and actually succeeding to break down MLS defenses. Spencer wasn't interested, so he was sent packing.

It's a big change, early in our history. While it does appear impatient, it's a good change if it was clear the system we had started with was simply not going to work with our attacking philosophy. It's better to make that change now than to have patience with a system that has little chance of success, as Real Salt Lake did with their first coach, who made it into his third year, only to be fired after another horrid start for the team.

So where are we going, and how will it be different for us, than it was for Toronto FC?

Let's look at Real Salt Lake, my favorite example of a building project in MLS.

First, let's face it. RSL had some luck on their side. They started out a lot like us---a coach who initially showed some progress, but ultimately, proved ineffective. Jason Kries, a former RSL player, came on board as a promising youngster with an attractive system of play, but no experience coaching at the pro level.

Kries didn't make the playoffs his first year (2008), but the team showed marked improvement and DID get in for the first time in 2009, and won the MLS Cup in 2010.

RSL was also a force in 2011, becoming the FIRST EVER MLS team to make it to the CONCACAF Champions League Final (losing to Monterrey 3-2). They went far in the MLS playoffs that year too, but were eliminated in the Conference Finals by eventual MLS Cup winner, Los Angeles Galaxy.

Currently, they are a dismal 6th in the league, a position teams like Portland and Toronto would kill for.

But ultimately, RSL and Jason Kreis, have adapted a more attractive playing style to MLS. Kries, who likes to say his team plays like Barcelona, fields a creative lineup that can pass the ball around and keep possession. But in spite of his comparisons, RSL play a more conservative formation than Barca and are still willing to send it long on occasion under heavy pressure (and Kreis would probably be the first to acknowledge these differences). Winter, meanwhile, insisted on a more rigid ground buildup from the back, even as his defenders routinely lost the ball in terrible positions and gave away easy counterattacks.

Kries has also emphasized a consistent core of players who can pass accurately. Even with this core, he's worked very hard with them to improve their buildup passing. They even spent a whole game against Seattle earlier this year, a dreadful 0-0 tie, focused almost entirely on field vision and passing the ball well from the back.

So we have two teams that tried to play attractive, attacking football in MLS.

RSL succeeded with time and a hint of pragmatism---probably sooner than most expected. Toronto didn't, as impatience and staunch ideology led them to throw the whole system out after 1.5 years.

So how can we become the next RSL, instead of the next Toronto FC?

1. Learn from the modern Tiki-Taka adaptation of Total Football. While it's true that Tiki-Taka in it's purest form may be too advanced for an MLS club---it's super-fast one-touch passing combo's being too risky for your typical MLS-level players, the system DOES involve a few more limits on the concept of positional interchange, compared with traditionall Total Football. This concept of targeted restrictions on positional interchange is perfect for an MLS team that can't afford to have complete players at every position, and has to rely on a few specialists to sustain a high level of play.

2. Play attractive, attacking football but with just a hint of pragmatism. At this stage in MLS's evolution, most MLS players probably require a little more safe-guarding, two-touch work, and the occasional long-ball bailout when the pressured player can't find a safe lane and target on the ground, particularly in the defensive half where turnovers can kill. Jason Kreis knows this and RSL's game reflects that adjustment. The don't typically kick in long, but they do when they have to.

3. Patience from both the coach AND the FO is key--even after 4-5 years. If one or the other gets overly anxious to WIN NOW, reactionary strategizing will take over and derail the ability of the team to show steady growth. This can spiral into the kind of reactionary pattern that Toronto FC has fallen into, and take the option of a longer-term builduing approach completely off the table as the team becomes increasingly desperate to give the fans the success they've waited so long to see.

4. Focused, but practical coach. I'm not asking Caleb Porter to become the next Roy Hodgson, not to take anything away from his coaching abilities. But Porter's strengths lie not in his tactical flexibility and/or scope. They lie in his tactical consistency. Thus, his ability to tweak and personalize his system to the surrounding reality is key to becoming successful in MLS. Jason Kries was able to develop his own twist on something closer to Tiki-Taka than other MLS teams have played, even if the term is still not quite accurate in describing RSL's play. Whatever it's called, it's designed to work in MLS, and it does. Aron Winter, in contrast, was unable to adapt his system of Total Football to the players and resources he had at his disposal with Toronto. We need from Caleb Porter, the ability to adapt---not game to game, but long-term, as we've seen from Jason Kreis.

5. The right players. Obviously Porter can develop young players. But if we can't build the team entirely from our current young talents (which is probably the case, considering MLS's improving level of play due to foreign influx, and the fact that our youth systems are pretty new), and we find it useful to to sign a couple of DP's, can Porter and GW work together to find the RIGHT GUYS for the system? We don't want to fall prey the temptation to snag a big name that suddenly becomes available and have to rearrange our system to fit around that player. Let's face it, if David Beckham suddenly declared his love of FieldTurf and his desire to join the mighty PTFC, it would be hard to say no. But NO is exactly what we should say. He wouldn't be a fit for the new system, and would end up doing more damage than good to the long-term direction of the team, given the current development strategy. Now, Andres Iniesta, on the other hand . . . yes, I know, never going to happen.

6. If the new system and/or coach doesn't work at first, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Even if, God forbid, we have to fire Porter down the road, it's worth examining the details and identifying the specific things that weren't working, and seeing if we can make small tweaks to the system and personnel that will change our fortunes, rather than throwing the whole thing out and starting over again. Of course I'm hopeful that Porter can do that kind of detail analysis effectively by himself.

That's it. Thanks for reading! Now you know exactly what our team needs to succeed. Happy winning, Portland!

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I'm neither a football coach nor an expert analyst. I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. So please disregard everything I just wrote.

Our defensive struggles are unusual

TimberGreen — Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:56:57 -0000

A lot of teams have issues with defending.

But there is something very unusual about HOW we're struggling.

A disproportionate number of our goals are coming when we're in position and ready. Many teams that play a possession-oriented attacking game struggle to contain the counterattack, as players have to improvise defensively within wide open space to slow down the break long enough to get people back in position.

But since we've started playing more of a possession game, we've actually been pretty decent against the counter (I'm not going to count the LA game right after Spencer's firing).

This last game (3-0 loss to Colorado) was the epitome of our defensive struggles. None of the three goals came on true counterattacks. The first was off a throw in. The second was on the buildup, though the final combination did start farther back. The third was on a set piece.

But the common them in this game was that ALL OF THE GOALS happened with our players in position, seemingly ready to defend from within what should be their comfort zones.

To me, that is an unusual problem, and should be easier to fix than a tendency to be unable to kill the counterattack. But we haven't fixed it over nearly two years now.

So what does this mean?

Was it Spencer?

Is it Gavin? And has he had enough time to work that out yet?

Or is it the players? Is it possible that this is just a perfect-storm bad-luck reality of having had a large percentage of our midfielders and defenders over the past couple of years having a tendency towards ridiculous mental lapses?

Obviously, it plays out with the players on the field. But to what extent their frequent mistakes is entirely on them, and to what extent they haven't been given proper guidance by their coaches, or the system sets them up for these mistakes, I'm not so clear on.

I tend to think this is an ongoing coaching issue, though I'm not sure that GW has had adequate time to address it and see marked, permanent improvement---I think he's been mostly offense focused, but is moving increasingly towards adding the defensive part.

Only time will tell if GW can have more success at pulling these issues together than Spencer did, but ultimately, what really matters is if Caleb Porter can do it next year, since he's going to be the permanent guy.

But I could be wrong---all of the scenarios I mentioned above seem like legitimate possibilities to me. What do you think?

What Timbers can learn from Sporting Kansas City

TimberGreen — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 21:09:55 -0000

During my lunch break today, I read a blog post today that blew my mind a bit.

It was about Sporting Kansas City, a team I haven't followed at all until this year. The parallels between them and the Portland Timbers are astonishing, not to mention those between Gavin Wilkinson and Peter Vermes.

Read it for yourself: http://www.sporkstake.com/2012/04/credit-where-due-peter-vermes-is-chief.html

After the jump, I'll highlight some key points:

Similarities between SKC and PTFC:

1. Both Gavin Wilkinson and Peter Vermes hired and fired coaches who promised an attacking style, but couldn't put any consistency together, and often reactively reverted to more conservative methods.

2. Both GW and PV took over as interim coach of their respective clubs upon the firing of the previous coach.

3. SKC used to play on a more narrow field, as the Timbers do now. They now have a wider pitch, as the Timbers plan to have in the near future.

4. Both the Timbers and SKC have a core philosophy centered around the development of young talent and an attacking style of play.

5. Like Wilkinson, Vermes was often criticized for not having a handle on his job as technical director, during some of SKC's more difficult years.

Now, obviously, we appear to be gunning for a more creative, techincal playing style, vs. Sporting's more physical, direct-buildup game (my one major disagreement with the blog I referenced---SKC may play an attacking, possession game, but the fluidity of movement is fairly limited). We also are hiring another coach, rather than making GW permanent. And we have a rabid fanbase that wants to win now.

But if we are the equivalent of SKC in 2009, what can the Portland Timbers learn from their journey?

1. Pitch widening. Their narrow pitch was due to the stadium they played in. They were able to widen it when they got their new stadium. There must be a good reason most teams prefer more width.

2. They established a clear identity in their system of play (direct possession-game; aggressive, physical, high-pressure defending). Call it what you will, it's an identity and it's working better and better as time goes on.

3. They cultivated and built around a core of young players. Graham Zuzi, Teal Bunbury, C.J. Sapong, Chance Myers, Roger Espinoza. These are all young talents they are now relying on as the core of their team.

4. They stuck with a good, though somewhat green, soccer mind, rather than seeking a more experienced person. Gavin Wilkinson is, today, who Peter Vermes was in 2009. A general manager being panned by the fans for incompetence, having to figure out what went right and what went wrong over the last couple of years, and move forward with an improved plan. Is GW a great soccer mind? To draw that conclusion now would be absurd, but those who say he is a clearly a soccer idiot are, frankly, soccer idiots (and I don't mean to confuse those folks and members of the Timbers faithful who have other reasons for disliking him).

5. Designated players are overrated. Sporting Kansas City unloaded their last one in the offseason, and are proceeding to have their best season in over a decade with ZERO DPs. That's not to say a DP is always bad, just that you should invest in a DP if it benefits your team and system, rather than building your team and system around a DP.

6. Prioritize the big picture and think long-term. This is part of why Vermes is successful today, and it will be key to Gavin Wilkinson and Caleb Porter's success as well. Vermes didn't let the desire to see immediate results and reward the fans, trump his focus on long-term growth, and his patience and long-term vision are paying off today.

In reality, I really dislike Sporting Kansas City. Their style of play, to me, is brutish and lacks flair in the possession game. I'm all for what we are doing in terms of going for a more creative, technical style of play. While conventional wisdom would suggest that SKC's style of play is more suited to MLS---a league that thrives on athleticism---I have my reasons for believing in a different approach for us. Those are for another post.

The point of this post is that, in spite of my sentiments towards SKC as a Timbers fan, I have to notice and appreciate what Vermes and the other folks running the club have accomplished. They have done a fantastic job in their patience, long-term planning, young-player development emphasis, and consistency in a competent system of play. Ultimately, it's taken some time, but it's paying off now, and SKC fans are loving it.

If we have learned from the journey of teams like SKC, I'm hopeful that their story can be ours in a few more years.