
Timothy McCormack
Apr 18, 2010 May 23, 2012 27 2
RSSUser Blog
Dwight Howard Trade Saga Takes Another Turn
The Dwight Howard trade saga that has lasted all season long and intensified over the past 48 hours as we approach the trade deadline took another turn early this morning when RealGM reported at 3:37 AM that Howard had told them that he was in fact planning on waiving his early termination option early Thursday morning. RealGM reports that Howard went on to apologize for the media circus that has surrounded his impending free agency and claim that his heart remains in Orlando. Amid swirling reports that Howard is considering firing his agent, RealGM reports that Howard also believes he has gotten bad advice.
For more on the Orlando Magic and potential trades at the NBA deadline, visit SB Nation's Magic blog Orlando Pinstriped Post. For all your NBA trade news, be sure to follow SB Nation's NBA news hub.
Dwight Howard Wants To Stay With The Magic For The Rest Of The Season
After pouring in 24 points and 25 rebounds to help power the Magic to an overtime victory in what could be his last home game in Amway Center, Dwight Howard told reporters that he has requested to not be traded this season, and would rather get a chance to finish the season and compete to bring the Larry O'Brien trophy to Orlando. Howard, however, would not answer questions relating to whether he planned on staying with the Magic after the season.
Dwight Howard Post Game Interview
Steve Nash Trade Rumors: Rating His Compatibility With Dwight Howard And The Magic
Over at ESPN.com Professor John Hollinger has created a statistic designed to determine which NBA player's games are most complimentary on the court to Dwight Howard's. To determine the "Dwight Howard Teammate Rating" we take a look at a few skills that Professor Hollinger suggested a key complementary player to Howard will have: ball-handling and distribution skills; strong 3-point shooting; a low defensive rebound rate; and the ability to create shots. To create a numerical statistic that will reference all of these categories we will add a player's usage rate (USG%) to how many 3-point attempts they take per 100 shot attempts (3pt./100), then add ten times their pure point rating (PPR), subtract their defensive rebound rate (DRB%), and add three times the difference between their 3-point shooting percentage (3pt.%) and a league average 30% 3-point shooter. We will also at times consider other statistics that I believe to be extremely beneficial for any teammate of Howard to posses, namely steal rate (STL%), free throw percentage (FT%), and fourth quarter scoring (4Qr.Pts.)
As we get closer to the March 15 trade deadline we'll take a look at possible trades that the Orlando Magic could make to improve their roster. We'll be using the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater to see what players that the Magic may be looking to acquire might be the best fits alongside Howard and whether the trades should improve the Magic.
Steve Nash: Two-Time MVP
Last night Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns gave up at least 30 points to James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Durant. While even in their heyday the Suns were never considered a stalwart defensive team tough losses like their 11-point beat down by Oklahoma City last night have become routine for the team that Steve Nash lead to 62 wins in 2004-2005, fueling speculation that the Suns ought to trade the two-time MVP for picks and young players. Despite the fact that the Suns are 17-21 and Nash recently turned 38, teams across the board are undoubtedly inquiring about Nash's availability- but most of the teams who have the mixture of high draft picks and young assets the Suns desperately need are hesitant to trade for Nash given that he will be an unrestricted FA after this season.
Magic fans might be hesitant to consider trading for an aging point guard who, like Howard, could leave the franchise with nothing at the end of the season, but despite the Suns' mediocrity Nash has managed to put together another All-Star season dishing out 10.9 assists per game to go along with 13.8 points on 54% shooting. In fact despite being surrounded by a 39 year-old Grant Hill, Howard's former back-up Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley, and Channing Frye, Nash has been able to keep his PER only a hair short of his 2004-2005 MVP campaign.
The Trade:
Steve Nash and Channing Frye to the Orlando Magic; Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Ryan Anderson, and the Magic's 2013, 2015 draft picks to the Phoenix Suns
The key to this trade package might be the two draft picks, given that if Howard and Nash do choose to depart from Orlando those picks will almost certainly land in the high lottery. The Magic undoubtedly will attempt to do this trade without parting with rising star Ryan Anderson, but it's difficult to imagine a package of Nelson, Redick, and draft picks trumping what the Trailblazers or Knicks could offer Phoenix. But Phoenix might find the combination of Anderson, Orlando's sweet-shooting power forward who leads the league in made three-pointers this season and the potentially high draft picks the Magic can offer intriguing. In addition Nelson offers them a capable starter at point guard with a similar, if much-diminished, skill set to Nash, while Redick would offer them a much needed upgrade on the wing. Also, given how important cutting costs has been to Suns owner Robert Sarver through-out his tenure, Nelson and Redick's team-friendly contracts and Anderson's low-paying rookie contract could be a boon. Furthermore, if the Suns desired to commit more fully to rebuilding they would likely have little difficulty finding willing trade partners for Nelson and Redick.
On the Magic's end it may seem like a lot to give up for what could be a Nash rental, but if Howard leaves for nothing over the summer the Magic will be stuck in the rebuilding process for the foreseeable anyway so it could be worth it to take a roll of the dice on teaming up Howard and Nash. The departure of Anderson might sting for Magic fans, but the Magic would receive another forward who would be more than capable of lighting it up from the perimeter when Howard is doubled in Channing Frye, and a Nash-Richardson-Turkoglu-Frye-Howard starting five has a much higher ceiling than the Magic have now. For a team that's currently the number three seed in the East, that has to sound promising, especially considering Miami's struggles containing elite point guards and centers. Losing JJ Redick might actually be the more troubling concern as it would leave the Magic even more dependent on serious contributions from end-of-the-bench players like Von Wafer and Quentin Richardson, but Nash and Howard both have a tendency to make their teammates look much better.
Dwight Howard Teammate Rater
|
Jameer Nelson |
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
NBA Career |
22.0 |
28.2 |
3.82 |
10.0 |
0.385 |
103.9 |
|
2011-2012 |
18.7 |
36.5 |
4.92 |
9.4 |
0.330 |
104 |
We already examined Nelson's Dwight Howard Teammate Rating last week, and found that for his career he rates out at a pretty high 103.9 for his career. But amazingly despite Nelson's regressions and career low shooting percentages he's managed to keep his game tailored around Howard's and still sports a respectable 104 Dwight Howard Teammate Rating so far this season.
JJ Redick
| JJ Redick
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
| 2011-2012
|
19.5 |
43.2
|
2.53 |
8.5 |
0.461 |
127.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JJ Redick's value to the Magic organization has been debated for years. Despite locking Redick up to a 3 year, $20 million contract in the summer of 2010, Redick has remained the Magic's backup shooting guard and the question remains whether the organization sees him as their future in the backcourt. But this year Redick's stunning 127.8 Dwight Howard Teammate Rating again shows how his game is almost perfectly tailored to fit alongside Howard's. In addition, Redick is often the Magic's top perimeter defender.
Ryan Anderson
| Ryan Anderson
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
| 2011-2012
|
21.5 |
55.3
|
0.74 |
14.6 |
0.421 |
105.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anderson's 105.9 Dwight Howard Teammate Rating exemplifies why the Magic are so hesitant to part with the third-year player, as it is one of the highest ratings we've come across yet for a frontcourt player. Although Anderson doesn't create much for others, he also rarely turns the ball over and is easily as good a three-point shooter as nearly anyone in the league. In addition, his rating doesn't take into consideration Anderson's tenacity on the offensive glass or youth.
Steve Nash
| Steve Nash
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
| 2011-2012
|
20.7 |
26.9
|
10.7 |
9.3 |
0.404 |
176.5 |
It's easy to see both why the Magic ought to be trying their hardest to pair Nash with Howard given his astonishing 176.5 Dwight Howard Teammate Rating and why Nash would be such a good compliment alongside Howard. While Nash's .404 three-point percentage and 20.7 usage rate this season are certainly nothing to scoff at, it's Nash's rare ability as a playmaker and a point guard, as evidenced by his off-the-charts 10.7 pure point rating, that would make Howard and Nash such a dominating pairing. And consider that Nash's numbers this season are deflated by playing with such an offensively inept team- with Howard drawing double teams in the post Nash's three-pointers per hundred attempts, three-point percentage, usage, and pure point rating are likely to rise. Nash is also well known around the league as a selfless, team-first leader with an ability to get his shot off at nearly any time- key attributes the Magic ought to be looking for.
Channing Frye
| Channing Frye
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
| 2011-2012
|
20.1 |
43.0
|
-1.09 |
22.1 |
0.344 |
65.4 |
While Frye's Dwight Howard Teammate Rating stands at a rather pedestrian 65.4, Magic GM Otis Smith would be wise to look beyond only this season's statistics. Given that the Suns lack a dominating post player like Howard, open looks from the perimeter for Frye this season have been few and far between. Similar to Anderson and Rashard Lewis, Frye could excel in Orlando's system as a weak-side perimeter threat with a dead-on three pointer. If Frye can feast on Howard's double teams and shoot anywhere near the 0.439 from downtown he posted alongside Stoudemire in 2009-2010, the Magic might not miss Anderson much at all. Frye's Dwight Howard Teammate Rating in his lone season alongside Stoudemire, which might be his greatest comparison, was a much higher 97.3.
Teammate Update
Over at ESPN.com Professor John Hollinger has created a statistic designed to determine which NBA player’s games are most complimentary on the court to Dwight Howard’s. To determine the "Dwight Howard Teammate Rating" we take a look at a few skills that Professor Hollinger suggested a key complementary player to Howard will have: ball-handling and distribution skills; strong 3-point shooting; a low defensive rebound rate; and the ability to create shots. To create a numerical statistic that will reference all of these categories we will add a player’s usage rate (USG%) to how many 3-point attempts they take per 100 shot attempts (3pt./100), then add ten times their pure point rating (PPR), subtract their defensive rebound rate (DRB%), and add three times the difference between their 3-point shooting percentage (3pt.%) and a league average 30% 3-point shooter. We will also at times consider other statistics that I believe to be extremely beneficial for any teammate of Howard to posses, namely steal rate (STL%), free throw percentage (FT%), and fourth quarter scoring (4Qr.Pts.)
To begin we’ll look at some of the major acquisitions the Magic have made through-out Howard’s career in Orlando and use the "Dwight Howard Teammate Rating" to determine where the Magic have been able to surround Dwight with talent that complements him or if other options were available that could have made the Magic a better team. Perhaps looking through this lens we can see if and when the Orlando Magic front office could have made better personnel decisions.
Update:
The results of the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater thus far have been remarkable if somewhat surprising. The prevailing conventional wisdom has been that GM Otis Smith did an almost laughably awful job building the Magic team around Dwight Howard, and that one of the reasons Howard is interested in switching teams is because of Orlando’s inability to pair him with the right teammates. But surprisingly, the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater disagrees.
While the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater certainly can’t accurately gauge exactly how awful Rashard Lewis’ contract was, it seems to suggest that Otis Smith actually did a good job building a champion-caliber team around Howard’s strengths and weaknesses.
While it’s possible that the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater inaccurately skews towards those players who have shared the floor with Howard, it’s clear that Orlando did a good evaluating what players would blossom beside Howard as Hedo Turkoglu, Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, and Rashard Lewis all posted extremely high ratings.
In fact only fringe rotation players with serious question marks like Nate Robinson and Matt Bonner posted ratings comparable to the four core players Orlando has paired with Howard.
While it’s entirely possible that Orlando’s current troubles stem from Orlando’s difficulties in keeping payroll down and developing young players to fill out a solid supporting cast, it’s also possible that the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater specifically looks for the type of players that Orlando has paired besides Howard, rather than those players who might fare best beside him or that Orlando simply overvalued how important these qualities were in their own players.
Still it’s somewhat shocking to see the numbers back-up that Orlando, at the very least, did a good job of identifying what type of players are most dangerous sharing the court with Howard.
We may take another look at the supporting cast Orlando built around Howard in the future, but as the trade deadline nears we’re going to take a look at some players Orlando could reasonably attempt to bringing in to bolster their championship hopes, and see how well they would fit in alongside Howard. We’ll start tomorrow with Steve Nash, who the Magic’s supposedly are actively pursuing..
Daily Orlando Magic Headlines
Welcome back to the Magic Hat, where we take a look at Orlando Magic headlines and stories from around the web.
Ryan Anderson’s favorite basketball movie growing up was Eddy.
John Hollinger believes the Magic might be the most likely team to upset the Heat or the Bulls and make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Michael Wallace notes that Dwight Howard did a good job of playing host at the 2012 NBA All-Star Weekend in Orlando while keeping attention away from his impending free agency.
There’s a rumor out there that the Magic might trade Dwight Howard to the Lakers in a three-team trade with the Raptors, but Magic management says it’s incorrect.
Dwight Howard fell just short of a double-double in the All-Star Game on Sunday night.
Ryan Anderson finished fourth in the NBA All-Star Three Point Shooting Contest Saturday night.
Three out of five ESPN.com experts believe that Dwight Howard will be staying in Orlando past the March 15th Trade Deadline.
At MagicBasketball.net Danny Nowell imagines the Orlando Magic Starzz Competition, an All-Star game festivity for those Magic players who won’t be competing at All-Star Weekend.
Dwayne Wade All-Star Weekend Interview
Dwayne Wade of the Miami Heat did more over All-Star Weekend than just score 24 points, corral 10 rebounds, and dish out 10 assists and one bloody nose during Sunday's All-Star Game. Over the weekend Wade also donated two new basketball courts to Tangelo Park Elementary and hosted the "All-Star Luncheon" with chairperson Harris Rosen (President and COO of Rosen Hotels & Resorts) through his Wade's World Foundation.
It was Wade's fifth straight year hosting his "All-Star Luncheon," and this year the proceeds went to support the Tangelo Park Program, a community-based education non-profit to benefit children and and families living in the Tangelo Park neighborhood. The luncheon also featured performances by Grammy-winning artist Estelle, and was emceed by Channel 9 News anchor Lauren Rowe.
Wade caught up with SB Nation Tampa Bay after the event for an exclusive interview about the importance of having Florida so well-represented in the All-Star Game.
Ricky Rubio and Evan Turner Battle For World Record in BBVA Rising Stars Challenge Practice
The NBA All-Star Weekend got off to a hot start Friday morning in the BBVA Rising Stars Challenge practice when Evan Turner, the Philadelphia 76ers’ second-year swingman, shattered the Guinness World Record for most behind the back the backboard shots in a minute, finishing with 14 made shots. Turner, who was assigned to Charles Barkley’s team after not being selected by either Charles Barkley or Shaq despite being the number two overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft, will play with Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Williams, Paul George, MarShon Brooks, John Wall, Tiago Splitter, Gordon Hayward, and Kawhi Leonard in the BBVA Rising Stars Challenge tonight at 9 PM.
But the friendly shoot-around and media event immediately took on an air of friendly competition after Turner’s recording-breaking feat, as other NBA rookies and sophomores attempted to overtake his lead. Eventually Rick Rubio, the Timberwolves rookie point guard and passing sensation, was able to do so crushing Turner’s 14 behind the background shots by sinking 18 of his own. Rubio, who will be able to hang the Guinness World Record plaque next to his Olympic silver medal from 2008, will take the court for Team Shaq alongside Blake Griffin, Jeremy Lin, Markieff Morris, Kemba Walker, Landry Fields, Norris Cole, Brandon Knight, Tristan Thompson, and Greg Monroe.
We’ll see if the competitive fever carries over to the BBVA Rising Stars game.
Dwight Howard's Wing Scoring Options: Hedo Turkoglu and Vince Carter
Over at ESPN.com Professor John Hollinger has created a statistic designed to determine which NBA player's games are most complimentary on the court to Dwight Howard's. To determine the "Dwight Howard Teammate Rating" we take a look at a few skills that Professor Hollinger suggested a key complementary player to Howard will have: ball-handling and distribution skills; strong 3-point shooting; a low defensive rebound rate; and the ability to create shots. To create a numerical statistic that will reference all of these categories we will add a player's usage rate (USG%) to how many 3-point attempts they take per 100 shot attempts (3pt./100), then add ten times their pure point rating (PPR), subtract their defensive rebound rate (DRB%), and add three times the difference between their 3-point shooting percentage (3pt.%) and a league average 30% 3-point shooter. We will also at times consider other statistics that I believe to be extremely beneficial for any teammate of Howard to posses, namely steal rate (STL%), free throw percentage (FT%), and fourth quarter scoring (4Qr.Pts.)
To begin we'll look at some of the major acquisitions the Magic have made through-out Howard's career in Orlando and use the "Dwight Howard Teammate Rating" to determine where the Magic have been able to surround Dwight with talent that complements him or if other options were available that could have made the Magic a better team. Perhaps looking through this lens we can see if and when the Orlando Magic front office could have made better personnel decisions.
Dwight Howard's Wing Scoring Options
During his career Dwight Howard has played with two primary shot-creators and scorers on the wing, Vince Carter and Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu was actually a part of the Magic's roster prior to the Magic drafting Howard, but was primarily used a spot-up shooter. It actually wasn't until the Magic hired coach Stan Van Gundy that Turkoglu blossomed into an all-around player and primary ball-handler, but Van Gundy rode Howard and Turkoglu's devastating pick and roll game through the 2009 playoffs. But in the summer of 2009 the Magic swung a trade for New Jersey's star shooting guard Vince Carter, which almost guaranteed Turkoglu's departure as a free agent. That year Turkoglu signed for $50 million with the Toronto Raptors, but failed to meet expectations after his fantastic play through-out the playoffs. With Carter as their primary perimeter shot-creator the Magic rolled through the first two rounds of 2010 playoffs, sweeping both the Charlotte Bobcats and the Atlanta Hawks. But in the Conference Finals the Magic struggled against the Celtics, with much of the blame falling on Carter's inability to create shots for himself or others against Boston's defense.
Then after Orlando came out of the gates slow in 2011, the Magic management swung a blockbuster trade with Phoenix that reunited Howard and Turkoglu. But which player was a better fit with Howard on the court? And where there other players the Magic could have picked up in the summer of 2009 who would have been better than Carter?
|
Hedo Turkoglu |
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
2008-2009 Season |
23.0 |
34.2 |
1.55 |
14.2 |
.356 |
75.3 |
| NBA Career | 20.5 |
34.7 |
1.16 |
13.8 |
.386 |
78.8 |
Unsuprisingly what makes Turkoglu a good fit on the court beside Howard is his how high his PPR is for a small forward, especially in season when he's full involved offensively. On other teams Turkoglu's tendency to drift away from the paint becomes problematic and his mid-range floor game wouldn't be nearly as effective, but Van Gundy's offense has always been predicated on multiple pick and roll ball-handlers being able to initiate the offensive sets and the attention that defenders have to pay both Howard on the roll and the Magic's spot-up shooters allows Turkoglu the space he needs to attack the defense.
However the Magic are currently paying a high price for Turkoglu and even in his career year in 2008-2009 he showed signs that his decline could be steep. Turkoglu's been effective at times since returning to the Magic, but he's not even been close to the ideal teammate he was for Howard in the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons.
|
Vince Carter |
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
2008-2009 Season |
26.8 |
29.2 |
2.79 |
13.8 |
..385 |
95.6 |
| NBA Career | 28.8 |
22.9 |
1.17 |
12.1 |
.376 |
74.1 |
In the summer of 2009, Vince Carter actually seemed to offer the Magic a stunning upgrade over Turkoglu's skills as a shot-creator. Though Carter was already years removed from his "Half Man, Half Amazing" routine, he offered the Magic an All-Star quality shot-creator who seemed to be making up for his waning athleticism by developing a more complete floor vision and becoming a deadlier shooter from beyond the arc. In addition his team friendly contract was shorter and less onerous than the one Turkoglu eventually signed with Toronto. But the 2008-2009 season was Carter's best in terms of PPR and in Orlando Carter's ability to break defenses down for good looks was inconsistent. Although Carter was still a good three-point shooter, when he was unable to get past defenders to attack the rim he often attempted ugly pull-up jumpers only a few steps inside the three-point line.
Carter also was less effective than Turkoglu as the ball-handler in the pick and roll, and his superior three-point shooting was less important than it seems given that they're roles in the offense were built around their ability to be more than a three-point threat. Without Turkoglu's height and pick and roll excellence, Carter wasn't quite a perfect a fit beside Howard on the court as it appeared he could be in 2009, and he's steadily declined each season since.
|
Shawn Marion |
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
2008-2009 Season |
18.1 |
7.0 |
-0.54 |
19.7 |
.189 |
0 |
| NBA Career | 21.1 |
22.9 |
1.17 |
12.1 |
.332 |
16.8 |
Interestingly, the Magic could seemingly have gotten Shawn Marion in the summer of 2009 easily, as he was essentially replaced in Toronto by Turkoglu and traded to Dallas. The 2008-2009 season wasn't a great one for Marion, who was traded from the Miami Heat to the Toronto Raptors at the trade deadline. But since then Marion has gone to establish himself as a primary player on a championship team. But Marion benefit to the Maverick's championship side of the ball where, although he would easily be the best perimeter defender the Magic have ever trotted out alongside Howard, his skill set would overlap with Howard's dominance. Even worse, while Marion is occasionally a threat from beyond the arc, his offense is more predicated on a smart and versatile post-game that would bring more defenders into the post and throw off the Magic's delicate spacing.
|
Lamar Odom |
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
2008-2009 Season |
19.8 |
14.4 |
-0.15 |
22.2 |
.320 |
16.5 |
| NBA Career | 20.5 |
20.0 |
-0.28 |
21.8 |
.318 |
21.3 |
After watching Lamar Odom dominate the Magic's frontline in the 2009 Finals, I remember thinking that the Magic would be much better off with a player with Odom's versatility and ability to create and play out of the post or perimeter. It turns out the numbers don't quite agree with my assessment of Odom's worth as Howard's teammate. While Odom's developed a reputation as a player who can create for others because of his excellent ball-handling and hi-lo passing, but Odom's PPR doesn't quite bear that out. And while Odom has a great 15-20 ft. jump shot and is a threat from beyond the three-point line, he doesn't appear to be a great fit beside Howard. What's most important is that Odom rarely runs the pick and roll as the ball-handler and would struggle to create open looks for the Magic's three-point shooters.
Daily Orlando Magic Headlines
Welcome back to the Magic Hat, where we take a look at Orlando Magic headlines and stories swirling around the internet.
Brian Shmitz of the Orlando Sentinel has a Dwight Howard Trade Deadline Timeline.
Jason Schwartz has a great description of a series of plays in the Magic's loss to the Celtics in January as part of an article in ESPN the Mag about advanced statistics.
Dwight Howard is going to be at the Florida Mall and Orlando Premium Outlets this Saturday as part of the All-Star Weekend festivities.
John Denton notes that tonight's game against the New Jersey Nets should have plenty of intrigue.
Ken Berger has an excellent article out about the disarray in the Los Angeles Lakers' front office that includes one unnamed source saying that the Lakers' chances of getting Howard in a trade are "slim to none".
The Magic get a B+ from Sports Illustrated's Britt Robson for their play so far this season.
John Hollinger names Ryan Anderson to his All-Lin Team and is considered an MIP-candidate by the #NBARank committee and Chris Broussard.
Dwight Howard's Co-Captain: Jameer Nelson
Dwight Howard's Co-Captain: Jameer Nelson
The 2003-2004 season and had been a tough one for the Magic, as despite Tracy McGrady's league-leading 28.0 points per game the Magic had stumbled to a 21-61 record. Despite winning the first pick of the lottery, the offseason was a tumultuous one as well. The Magic were saddled with making a tough choice between two dominating big men, Emeka Okafor and Dwight Howard, and the organization was leaning towards choosing Howard, the talented Gatorade High School Basketball Player of the Year who had averaged 25 points, 18.1 rebounds, and 8.1 blocks while leading his team to the state championships. But rumors persisted that Tracy McGrady valued Okafor's college experience and defensive accumen and believed that the UConn product, who, even while battling back-problems, had lead the NCAA in blocks and been named the NCAA Defensive Player of the Year, the Big East Player of the Year, and the NCAA Tournament's Most Outstanding Player while helping UConn capture the NCAA title, should be the Magic's pick. There were even allegations that McGrady wanted to be traded to another team if the Magic chose Howard over Okafor.
Knowing that, and likely knowing the basic outlines of the Steve Francis-Tracy McGrady that would go throw only days later, the Magic knew they would also likely have to look to the draft to find a young guard who could contribute immediately to help fill out their rotation. When the Magic found a willing trade partner in the Denver Nuggets, giving up only what turned up to be the 20th pick in the 2005 draft, the Magic selected Jameer Nelson, the St. Joseph's PG who had lead his team to a perfect regular season and been named the NCAA National Player of the Year. Although the Magic front office likely considered how Nelson would fit alongside Howard on the court, their primary concerns were likely more centered around his ability to contribute immediately and share the floor with either Steve Francis or Tracy McGrady.
That said, Nelson is Howard's co-captain on the Magic and his longest-tenured teammate. Together Howard and Nelson have helped the Magic go from a dismal 21-61 campaign the year before they arrived to all the way to the NBA Finals in 2009, and both have been named All-Stars along the way. But was Jameer Nelson the best guard the Magic could have gotten to play beside Howard in either the 2004 or 2005 drafts?


|
Jameer Nelson |
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
NBA Career |
22.0 |
28.2 |
3.82 |
10.0 |
0.385 |
103.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The thing that jumps out immediately is how much better perimeter players, who handle the ball and shoot threes far more often than the forwards we examined yesterday, are rated in the Dwight Howard Teammate Rater. While it's tempting to dismiss Nelson's high rating as a factor of his development playing alongside Howard for his entire career his rating comes primarily from how well he sees the floor and shoots the three. Those two qualities were entirely present in Nelson's college career however, as he shot 39% from beyond the arc on 187 attempts and lead the Atlantic Conference with 5.3 assists per game. Either way it's clear that throughout his career Nelson has consistently been a top-notch match for Howard on the court. Unfortunately, Nelson has also steadily regressed in several of these categories over the past two years, particularly PPR, as he loses the speed in his first step that allowed him to penetrate into the lane while keeping his dribble alive. And while Howard hides many of Nelson's defensive shortcomings, his height and lack of length hurting when closing out on shooters- one of the few defensive responsibilities Howard's teammates do have.
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
|
NBA Career |
25.5 |
16.0 |
0.29 |
9.1 |
0.328 |
43.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Had the Magic not chosen to trade draft picks with the Denver Nuggets during the 2004 draft and kept their 2005 NBA draft pick, they would have had a chance to select Monta Ellis, the Golden State Warriors scoring sensation. Ellis, of course, has since been mentioned in multiple Golden State-Orlando trade rumors, as Howard supposedly would love to play alongside the offensive-minded guard. But the numbers suggest that Ellis wouldn't be a great fit beside Howard, because as effective as he is at scoring the ball he isn't very good at creating for others or shooting three-pointers. While some would suggest that Ellis' elite ability to create shots from the perimeter would be a huge asset for an Orlando team desperately in need of playmakers, drafting Ellis likely wouldn't have helped the Magic create efficient perimeter shots.
In addition, Ellis is known around the league as a slightly immature player and was once injured and had miss games after a scooter accident. Compared to Nelson's professional demeanor, floor vision, and three point shooting, drafting Ellis likely wouldn't have been a great move for the Magic.
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
|
NBA Career |
23.5 |
38.1 |
1.17 |
9.3 |
0.352 |
79.6 |
Even worse, had the Magic not traded for the rights to Nelson back in 2004 they may have felt the need to draft a different undersized point guard with a good stroke from three- Nate Robinson. Robinson, who many Magic fans will remember from his Krypto-Nate Dunk over Dwight Howard in the Slam Dunk Contest, was drafted with the 21st pick in the 2005 draft, one slot below the pick the Magic traded to Denver. Had the 2004-2005 season ended with the Magic's Steve Francis at point experiment not working out, the Magic might have felt forced to draft the diminutive guard. As a teammate for Howard, Robinson excels in the same categories Nelson does but is predictably worse in all of them. While he's a strong three-point shooter and a relatively effective point guard, he's simply not even close to Nelson in either category and with his waning athleticism is likely to end up even worse over the next few years. In addition, Robinson has been something of a locker-room problem at each of his first three NBA stops.
|
USG% |
3pt./100 |
PPR |
DRB% |
3pt.% |
Dwight Howard Teammate Rating |
|
|
NBA Career |
24.7 |
32.5 |
-1.62 |
10.6 |
0.379 |
54.1 |
But the 2004 draft offered the Magic another interesting option at guard, as when they selected Jameer Nelson with the 20th pick Kevin Martin was still available. Martin, who was eventually drafted 26th by the Sacramento Kings, has been a borderline All-Star player for years due to his ability to score the ball efficiently, draw fouls, and shoot the ball from downtown. As compared to Nelson he seems like an ill-fit for the Magic as he's a little less efficient at shooting the three and far less effective in PPR. But unlike the other players in this comparison, Martin is exclusively a wing player and it would be his job to finish plays rather than set them up. Given how effective Kevin Martin has been at doing so, especially considering that he's never played post scorer with Dwight's skills and has almost always been the first option offensively on his teams, it's reasonable to consider that perhaps his rating ought to be a little higher than a pedestrian 54.1. However no matter what way you slice it, it doesn't look like he would be quite a good a teammate for Dwight Howard as Nelson is. In fact given Nelson's standing in the Magic organization and locker room and how well he fits alongside Howard on the court, it seems as though the Magic organization did a good job selecting Nelson alongside Howard in the 2004 draft.
Magic Hat: Orlando Magic Headlines
Welcome to our new daily feature, the Magic Hat. The Magic Hat will be a daily updated feature where you can find all the Orlando Magic headlines and commentary from the past day.
Three Things To Watch In The Magic vs. Wizards Game Tonight:
Three Things To Watch In The Magic vs. Wizards Game Tonight:
Will either team be able to score efficiently?
This game is probably gonna be ugly. Over at the Point Forward Zach Lowe explains that in seven of the Magic’s games in January they had less points per possession than the Wizards, who are currently the worst scoring team in the NBA. In fact Lowe points out that in four of their recent games the Magic scored only 87.5 points per 100 possessions, significantly worse than even the dismals Wizards league-last 93 points per 100 possessions rate.
With Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson out, will the Magic’s backup guards be able to slow Nick Young and John Wall?
Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson’s absences will certainly hurt the Magic offensively, but the game might be decided by how Nick Young, Jordan Crawford, and John Wall play against the Magic’s backup guards. Chris Duhon and JJ Redick are reliable fill-ins as starters, but afterwards the Magic’s lack of depth really becomes apparent. When the Magic have Larry Hughes and Quentin Richardson in they’re likely to struggle against Washington’s speedy guards. John Wall in particular has been playing well recently and is a likely candidate to have a big game against the Magic.
Who Will Win The Battle of The Blocks?
With Dwight Howard averaging less blocks per game than he has in four years, Javale McGee, the Wizards young center, has taken over the top spot and raced out to a league-leading 3.1 blocks a game. While he’s averaging one more block a game than Dwight Howard, his lack of polish offensively should give Dwight plenty of opportunities for blocks himself. Watching their block contest might be fun distraction for what otherwise could be a tough game to watch.
Win Tickets To See The Magic Take On The Clippers
The Orlando Magic are holding an online scavenger hunt and giving away tickets to see Dwight Howard take on Blake Griffin and the Clippers. Fans can win two lower bowl tickets by visiting the Orlando Magic's official site and finding the correct answers to these three questions:
Mr. Fourth Quarter- Vince Carter vs. Hedo Turkoglu In The Clutch
Since June 25, 2009 I've been waiting for this, arguing with anyone about the Magic's playoff chances (that is of course, not their chances of making the playoffs, or having a deep playoffs run, but rather their chances of winning the trophy to bid Amway Arena goodbye). June 25th, 2009 was, if you're not aware, the date the Magic traded Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee to the New Jersey Nets for Vince Carter, and effectively sent Hedo Turkoglu packing to Toronto. My roommate, as consummate a basketball fan as I am, lamented the trade, loosing entire tirades about Vince's inability to take the team deep into the playoffs and how much Toronto fans hated him for his lack of toughness, determination, and overall drive to win (ironically many of the things Toronto fans now hate about Turkoglu). It's nearly impossible to disagree with history, so I would soothe myself knowing that Turkoglu ridiculous contract would never be worth what he could bring to the table. Losing Courtney Lee didn't help much either, but still I couldn't help but feel that Vince, playing in as close to his hometown as he could get, would have a career re-invigorating year. Our argument's have lasted from the ecstatic beginnings of the preseason through the honestly awful winter months and January and right on through to spring, and all season they've ended exactly where I'm sure millions of other debates have as well, at "we'll see what happens in the playoffs." Well tomorrow the playoffs start, and we're not alone in having our disagreements about Vince Carter, just the other day Bill Simmons tore into Vince Carter and the Magic's playoff hopes for many of the same reasons my roommate has. In particular he asks "Where are you going to go in the last three minutes of a tight game?" Well what will the Magic likely do in the last three minutes of a close game, and how will it stack up to last year?
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