Way back in July, our esteemed web-host Larry argued that shortstop was the position where the Cardinals could make the most improvement to the team. This was his conclusion back then:

so --- to wrap this up --- if the cardinals can swing one trade at the deadline to start restructuring this team, the ideal acquisition would be a 20something shortstop who can bat leadoff, draw a walk, and steal a base. somebody like rafael furcal, in whom the cards showed no interest when he was a free agent 2 off-seasons ago . . . . .

So now I'm wondering--does this conclusion still hold? If not, why not? I bring this up because there has been, to my mind, little discussion of how the shortstop position plays into the Cardinals' trade/free agent strategies this off season. Is it because no good options (other than A-Rod) are out there? Or because our other needs hold greater priority? Or maybe there's been a resurgence in confidence in either Ryan or Eckstein occurred between July and today? Personally, I think shortstop requires more urgent attention than our left-leaning outfield.

Poll

What's the Card's Top Priority This Offseason?

6%

Righthanded corner outfielder

12 votes

0%

Centerfielder (righty or otherwise)

1 votes

11%

Shortstop

20 votes

81%

Starter with front of rotation stuff

148 votes

181 votes | Poll has closed

It's a tough time to be Juan Encarnacion.  First, people said that they'd rather have Reggie Sanders.  Now that Juan has definitively outplayed Sanders in 2006, people still can't stop talking about being rid of him at the first opportunity.  For Juan, it seems that every time he meets the bar the fans just set it higher.

Bernie Miklasz speculates that the rancor is due to Enc's laid back demeanor.  Because he always looks relaxed and impassive, the fans don't think he's trying.  You just never see a lot of passion.  Maybe Bernie's right.  But animosity toward Encarnacion requires an explanation, because it can't be explained by his actual play in 2006.

Don't get me wrong.  Enc is not a superstar.  But, damn it, he's a quality player.  

In 2006, Enc hit .278, with a .317 OBP, and slugged .443.  He had 155 total hits, 19 dingers, and 79 rbi.  His homerun total is equal to Edmonds, and he topped Edmonds in RBI.  Despite his relatively low OBP, he scored more runs than Eckstein (74 vs. 68).  Among outfielders in the National League, Enc finished 8th in number of hits, and 17th in rbi.  He played in 155 games, missing only 6 (the cards played only 161 in '06).  This is no glass jawed player.

If you compare Enc to the Cardinals' most important NL rival, Encarnacion compares favorably with either of the Mets' left or right fielders, Chavez, Floyd, or Green.

Second, Encarnacion is grossly underrated in defense.  Per this VEB entry , Enc was the most valuable glove on the team in '06, saving 9 runs above replacement.  Query this: If Enc's defense truly is worth more than Molina's, then, logically, Molina's the problem the Cards should address first, not Enc.

Lastly, the beef against Encarnacion can't be due to Juan's contract.  As per this VEB entry, the Card's netted $1.2 [million based upon] win shares [over the amount paid during] the first year of Juan's contract.  The team got more than they paid for.  

So, I'll stop pussyfootin' around and just throw down the gauntlet: Juan's a better option in the OF than J-Rod.  (how's that for shaking a hornet's nest?)

This will likely to be an unpopular post.  But I'm open to other folks' views as to what their beef with Encarnacion is, especially you, OBP obsessed sabrematricians of the world.  If there's a case to be made, I don't see it.

The Cards are Champs again, after a 24 year drought.  TLR got his second.  The Cards received some vindication from the '04 embarrassment.  

Pujols, after five years of tearing up the league, already has his first ring, the first of what we can expect will be several to come.  Not for Pujols the fate of Dan Marino, to be a dominant player denied the league's highest honor.

And lastly, the reputation of the National League has been newly burnished after overcoming at last the slings and arrows of the upstart junion league.

For all of these reasons, the Cardinals needed this championship; they deserved it.  But last night, they earned the championship as well.  

At this point, even the Red Birds' faithful must ask, How did this happen? Let's review on some of the reasons.

Key Midseason Pickup  Everyone in the cardinal nation seemed to realize that the Cards needed a big mid-season pick up to compete in the post-season.  What was funny, though, is that we didn't realize until October that the Cards actually had made this acquisition.  

Jeff Weaver, an implacable, nasty Number 2 in the rotation, came out of nowhere in Game 2 of the NLDS.  He left the Padres baffled, and the bafflement continued until he had racked up 9 STRIKEOUTS(!) in Championship finale.  

Has Duncun ever had a bigger accomplishment?  The Angels' management must be shaking their heads in disbelief.  But now they know.  The problem wasn't that the Angels had Weaver.  The problem was that they had Weaver and didn't have Duncun.

The Farm System  Adam Wainwright, Anthony Reyes, Derek Kinny, Tylor Johnson, Chris Duncun.  I don't think minor league additions have ever before had such a pivotal impact on the Cardinals' fortunes.  

You take these rookies and Weaver, and its hard not to start thinking about 2007.  This team now has the makings of a dynasty.

Yadier Molina  Where did this guy come from?  He hit .412 in the World Series and .358 in the post-season.  It's important to remember that Yadi's only 24.  I'm not saying that he'll develop into a .350 hitter, but this post-season may be a signal of his possibly broad potential for improvement.

Come Back Player of the Year  Although he hit only .275 in the entire post-season, Scott Rolen picked up his game by hitting .412 in the World Series.  His world series rebound was just as dramatic as his improvement of .296 with 22 homeruns during the season after going .235 and 5 homeruns last year.

The Ambush Rolen, the bullpen brats and Reyes, Jeff Weaver, and Yadi Molina coming out of nowhere--these were the elements of the ambush that bushwhacked the Pads, the Mets, and the Tigers.  No one predicted the play that these players had in them, certainly not Keith Law, not the USA Today, no one, except perhaps La Russa.

Speaking of LaRussa, this championship is TLR's masterpiece.  He didn't make one serious mistep with the starting rotation, the Pen, or the Bench.  Taguchi hit an astounding .400 with a .438 obp, scoring five times with 4 RBI.  Although Speizio's total numbers weren't great, he was one of the great heros of the NLCS.  So Congrats to Tony, for a perhaps his finest post-season yet.

The off season and next year will be fun.  I like the idea of being the defending champs.  As I said, I think we'll be even better next year.

Go Cards, and Congrats on a job well done!

This is kind of a stupid comment, but . . .

Anyone who watched last night's episode of Lost (and why wouldn't you given the rainout), knows that the episode ended with Henry Gale a.k.a. Benjamin, convincing Jack that the Others have contact with the outside world by showing him a clip of the Red Sox winning the 2004 World Series.  

The minute Henry started rolling the clip I became furious.  Furious at the Cardinals for being the team to hand the Red Sox the championship, furious at the Cardinals for getting swept, furious at them for losing at home.  The whole thing is infuriating.  

I was surprised by how undigested my feelings were.  I think I've been repressing since then.  

But that's not my point.  My point was that this current NLCS (and possible World Series) gives the Cardinals a great chance to expatiate their humiliation of two years ago.  

It would seem anomalous for a team as good as the '04 Cards to lose, while this inferior iteration of the Cards might win it all.  What can I say.  Baseball's a funny game, and I've got a good feeling about this series.  I consider last night's rain nothing short of divine intervention.  

So here's hoping that tonight, that other deity who wears the number 5, will do some intervening of his own.

Let's kick the Mets' sorry butts!

With respect to the question of who will be on next year's team, I can think of five players who are on the bubble right now, and I wonder whether strong playoff performances might convince management to stick with them.

1.  I'll start with Belliard.  ESPN is reporting that the Indians want him back next year.  I can understand why.  As he has shown repeatedly the past two games, the guy's range is unbelievably broad.  He's like having one big ball vacuum stretching nearly the whole expanse from first to second base, except in this case the vacuum also can turn a pretty nifty DP.  How could we let the guy get away?
2.  Weaver.  If he turns in games like yesterday's for the remainder of the playoffs (which are at least one and likely at least two more games), why would we give him up?  
3.  Suppan. Same question, as long as he doesn't pitch terribly in the playoffs.  
4.  Edmonds.  What to do?  I think Jed will need to turn in a Pujols-like performance to stay on the team next year.  Management probably views him as they did Reggie Sanders: i.e., Thanks for the good play this year, but we don't think you're worth the risk of bad play next year.  But what if he turns in heroic plays ala 2004 NLCS?
5.  Wainwright.  Is this guy cementing a spot as a closer?  Chances are that Izzy doesn't come back.  Given Wainwright's performance, why would we move him.  Seems to me that it's much easier to find decent pitchers for the third or fourth spot in the rotation than finding a closer.  If the market for closers is dry this off-season, don't the Cards have to leave him in the Pen?  

A latent defect in a product is one that is detectable only after the product is purchased and used.  It seems as good a metaphor as any for the 2006 Cardinals.  Let's not be mistaken, this team is defective.  

When the team was first presented to us during Spring Training, we, the Fans -- the prospective purchasers of the product -- knew the team was a fixer-upper.  There were holes in the in-field at second base and in the out-field in left-field.  We knew that the pitching, both in the rotation and in the bull pen, would not be top of the line or state of the art.  But these problems looked fixable.  A trade here, a pick up there, a bit of spit and glue, and it seemed we had a perfectly serviceable contender.

Well, we were wrong.  We now know that latent defects in Mulder's shoulder, in Isringhausen's hip, in Edmonds' head (well, we already knew something about that, but who knew it would keep him from playing completely?), had sealed this team's fate before the inaugural pitch was thrown in our new jewel of a stadium.  Now we know that the drubbing the team suffered at the hands of the White Socks was no fluke.  It was just the first symptom to present of a cancer that already had fatally metastasized to the team's vital organs.

If we knew then what we knew now, maybe things would have been different.  Maybe we would have started Wainwright and Reyes from opening day.  Maybe Looper would have been our closer all year.  Maybe Duncun would have played 150 games.  Maybe we would have sought more drastic treatment.

And maybe we wouldn't have thought that we had a contender on our hands, rather than an also ran.  Knowledge does not solve the problem, but it makes acceptance easier.

As has been made abundantly clear to us for the past two weeks, the 2006 Cardinals are a lemon.  Too bad we can't get a refund.  At least we can get a new team, just not until next year.

After the team finally is put out of its misery, I think I'll be ready to look at the bright points of the season.  As for now, having been informed of the team's fatal condition only recently, I'm still coping with the news.

RIP               

Did anyone else notice?  Renteria's a good player again.  

Edgar Renteria '06
AVG .313 | HR 9 | RBI 35  | OBP .392 | SLG .464

There also was an article on ESPN's site on how uncomfortable Renteria felt in Boston after fans took to calling him "Rent-a-Wreak."  How ironic that Edgar left claiming that he wasn't respected in St. Louis.  Good solution, Edgar.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not saying that I don't like Eckstein.  The guy's a baller, a true competitor.  But he doesn't have Renteria's talent.  

Maybe the Cardinals are better off not paying so many millions to Edgar.  But I can't help thinking that Renteria's decision to leave was regrettable across the board.  It also seems to me that a player's contract decisions are among the most important decisions they can make that influence whether or not they win a world series ring.

It's been said many times before, but I'll say it again: Renteria chose poorly.

Although story of the impact Pujols' injury on the 2006 season has not yet been written, after the sweep of the Rockies, I feel justified in expressing my optimistic admiration for this team's response.  

When Pujols went down, this team didn't wilt.  Instead, almost every member of the line-up has increased their intensity and focus, and picked up their game several levels above what they were playing before.  What better evidence can one look for than the fact that the Cards have scored more runs per game without Pujols than with him (5.61 versus 5.02 before, according the VEB's Perfect World calculation)?

Prior to Pujols' injury, as LBoros put it, other teams could beat the Cardinals, but they couldn't beat Pujols.  Well, now those teams can't beat the rest of the team either.

In final analysis, the verdict very well may be that the injury to Pujols was a one of the best things that could have happened to this team--that it caused players who previously were coasting to take responsibility for their performance and their impact on the team's fortunes.  If Pujols hadn't gotten injured, we may never have known how good the rest of the team could be.

Am I making too much of a single series sweep?  Could be.  The upcoming series against the Chi'Sox and Detroit will let us know for sure.

I noticed that Torii Hunter is beating Soriano in the straw poll on this blog.  It left me scratching my head.  Let's look at the facts:

Torii Hunter
2006 Season
AVG .269 | HR 9 | RBI 34 | OBP .330 | SLG .447

Career
AVG .267     OBP .321    SLG  .458   HR 142
Salary
10.75 mil

Alfonso Soriano
2006 Season
AVG .297 | HR 19 | RBI 38 | OBP .347 | SLG .603

Career
AVG .281  OBP    .322      SLG .507   HR 181
Salary
$10 mil

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no respect, none, zip, nada, with which Soriano is not demonstrably superior to Hunter.  Hunter even costs more and produces less.

Oh, and just to beat this dead horse:  

Stolen bases
Hunter: 4  Soriano: 12

So what's the deal?  Is the Hunter preference due to lingering resentment against Soriano for his tantrum about being moved to the outfield?  Lingering resentment for wearing the pin stripes?

Other than Miguel Cabrera, I dont' see many players who are clearly better than Soriano.  And Soriano is more likely to actually be traded than Cabrera and a lot of other players discussed on this site.  

Just my two cents.

Anyone else notice how well Soriano would fit into a Red Bird line up?  

Here are his stats:
Alfonso Soriano
Avg. .281 RBI:  41 HR: 16 OBP: 338 SLG: 568 SB: 10

Soriano is a free agent next year, so it's a given that the Nationals will look to deal him this summer for prospects.  His $10 million salary is a lot, but I imagine we'd only be obligated to pay 1/3 of it.

And, now that he's an outfielder, he's less of liability on the field.  

I have little doubt that the Cardinals could go all the way with him in the line up.  Picture it:

Eckstein
Soriano
Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
Encarnacion
Molina
Miles/Luna

Daunting, isn't it?

Per the P-Dispatch, Pujols is calling out fans for straying from their usual supportive nature, particularly with respect to Encarnacion and Isringhausen.  As per El Hombre Grande:

"The guy's really frustrated right now. He's trying to do as much as he can to help us win and the last thing you want is for our fans, 45,000 people, booing a guy like that. Same thing with Izzy.

"I tell you. I don't know what's going on with our fans. But I don't think that's the right way to approach it."

When the man's right, he's right.  St. Louis fans are behaving a bit like Phillies fans, and I mean every bit of insult that the slur implies.  Perhaps two successive 100-win seasons have spoiled us a bit.  That's part of it.  

The other part is fan frustration at management's decision to fill in roster spots with second tier players.  Encarnacion definitely is the poster child of a sub-par off-season, so his slump has been made the target of these larger grievances.

Even so, the Man is right.  St. Louis fans are supposed to understand baseball better than any others.  Baseball includes inexplicable slumps.  It's unfortunate that Encarnacion is mired in one at the outset of the season, but that doesn't excuse the fans' rush to harsh judgment.

As TLR says, the team needs a productive Encarnacion to win.  Here's hoping he turns it around.  I, for one, will be pulling for 'em.

During the game thread from the home opener, some folks commented on Encarnacion's bunt in the 4th with two runners on and no one out.  Well, the P-Dispatch has provided a story on that decision, and it reports that the bunt was Juan's idea, not Tony's.  

Apparently, Juan's every bit as aware of his poor performance as are the commentators on this site.  His rationale for bunting literally was that he was swinging so poorly that he didn't trust himself to swing in that situation.  That's pretty bad.

On the brightside, though, Encarnacion at least seems to be bothered by his performance.  I was starting to worry that Juan was suffering from the indifference that the first year of a three-year contract can bring.  I had hoped that Encarnacion had more integrity than to let a little job security diminish his drive.  The Post article suggests that he does.  

Hopefully, this is not a character issue, and the guy's just struggling and eventually will pull himself out of it.  

Last week, the Post-Dispatch reported that:

Until injuring his left knee in Los Angeles on Sept. 10, 2004, Rolen was hitting .322 with 31 home runs and 113 RBI in 456 at-bats that season. Including the '04 postseason, Rolen since has hit .219 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI in 296 at-bats.

The full article is here.  I haven't seen any discussion of this seemingly troubling stat.  Rolen hit .265 in April 05 before dislocating his shoulder against Hee-Seop Choi's torso on May 10, 2005.  Although .265 is a big drop from .322 (or .314, his season average for '05), it is just a bit below his career average of .284.  (Also, the .355 obp for April isn't bad either.)  

This would tend to suggest that, contrary to the Post-Dispatch's intimation,  Rolen's '04 knee injury has not permanently damaged his hitting ability. But, then again, a month's just a month.  

Even so, does anyone else find the Post-Dispatch's blurb troubling?

Maybe this is just sour grapes, but I think the World Series demonstrates that Houston was only a middling team.  Yes, they had pitching par excellence, but, as the ChiSox showed, their pitching was beatable.  What's more important is that they really didn't have much in the way of hitting, so it was critical for the Cardinals to put runs on the board.  As long as the series was a race to four runs, the Cards were playing into the 'Stros hands.  

I blame our line up.  If the Astros pitching was to be broken, we needed to string hits together.  We weren't able to do so.  We had holes in our line up that we weren't able to fill, and the Astros exploited those holes and prevented the Cardinals from having any break-through innings.  Instead, we had a flood of refugees (39) stranded on the bases.  

Partially, the blame can be attributed to La Russa.  He is biased in favor of loyalty and experience.  As a result, he rarely fashions a line up that asks a veteran to yeild to a hot bat.    

Unfortunately for us, play off games are won and lost on the strength of streaking players weilding hot bats.  

Look at Houston--they killed us with the bottom of their line up.  In the playoffs, Everett hit .304, Ausmus hit .318, and Burke hit .318.  During the season, each hit .248, .258 and .248, respectively.

For us, Nunez and Molina ended the playoffs batting .385 and .318.  Leaving Nunez in the 8 spot was a waste for us.  Having Walker in the five spot was a terrible drag.

In the past two yeard, with the Cardinals having been as good as they are and as loaded with talent as they have been, it's easy to get discouraged regarding what it will take to actually win a championship.  Sure, we'll add a young turk in right field.  Rolen will return next year.  But the question persists:  Was it a lack of firepower, or is it an inability to to marshal the firepower we have?

I don't think anyone could have beat the Red Sox last year.  By the time they got to us, they were unbeatable.  This year hurts because we lost to a deeply flawed team, a team we should have beat.  

TLR steps to the podium.

"Six score and three years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new baseball franchise, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all homeruns should fly further than 315 feet.

"Now we are engaged in a great National League series, testing whether that franchise, or any franchise so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that series. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for poor Mr. Rawlings, who gave his life that that franchise might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

"But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this lousy juice box field. The brave Mr. Pujols, who struggled here, has consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what Mr. Pujols did here. It is for us the Cardinals, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which Mr. Pujols has thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from his gargantuan homerun we take increased devotion to that cause for which Mr. Rawlings gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that this baseball shall not have been blasted 412 feet in vain -- that this Franchise, under the Arch, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that baseball of the Cardinals, by the Cardinals, for the Cardinals shall not perish from the 2005 season."

As some of you may recall, prior to the post-season, I advised that I was rooting for Houston to get in.  My thinking was that Houston in the playoffs served up the Padres to us first, and created the possibility of knocking out the Braves in the first round.  My rationale depended on two things being true: (1) the Padres had to be a foe we could handle; and (2) Houston had to be preferable to the Braves.

Well, now that we're in the post-season, I can start assessing how well my presumptions have held up.

I think No. 1 has proven itself.  Two more games will let us know, but let's face it: things are going our way.

As for presumption No. 2, well, LBoros gave me fair warning that Houston, not the Braves, was the team to watch.  Last night's 10-5 drubbing by the 'Stros would tend to confirm this.  

Despite this, I would like to make a last-ditch attempt to justify my view of the post-season.

Why I Don't Fear Houston   I don't fear Houston because, the bottom line is, this is the same Houston team that we beat last year, sans Kent and Beltran.  What's more, Bagwell isn't even 100%.  So the question is, does Pettite pitching--and pitching well to boot--make that big a difference?  Well, does it?  

(silence)

Well, I guess we'll find out.  I just note that (1) our pitching has improved a bit too; (2) We're  3-1 when Clemens starts; (3) we're 2-1 when Pettite starts; and (4) we're 2-1 when Oswald starts.  (Feel free to confirm these numbers btw)

So why is Houston better than the Braves?  Better to face the enemy you know than the one you don't.  We know these guys because we beat them last year, and we beat them 11 out of 16 times this year.  

Am I afraid?  No.  (okay, yes, but only a little.)  Am I confident?  No doubt.  

It will be a hell of a pennant.

Houston's back in the lead for the wild card, and I, for one, am glad of it.  

A Houston wild-card is a two-fer for the Cardinals:  1.  It eliminates the Marlins, a potentially dangerous, generally balanced team, from the post-season; and 2. It sends the Padres, the most pathetic divisional champ in the history of baseball, to Busch Stadium for one last NLDS thwacking.

And here's the best part:  A Houston wild-card could prove a three-fer, that is, if Houston finds a way to knock out the Braves in the NLDS.

The Braves make me nervous.  I don't like the way the Birds played against them this year, and I don't like all the uncertainty with their new recruits.  The word in Atlanta is that this is not your older brother's Braves.  

Hopefully, Houston will get the first opportunity to verify whether that's true.

I'd give us a 55% chance of seeing the Braves in the post-season. Assuming the Cards finish with the NL's best record, I'd put my money on the hot, hot Astros taking out the Braves in the NLDS (like last year), the Cards (like last year) smashing the Western Champ, and (unlike last year) making mincemeat of the 'Stros in this years' NLCS.

But because the Stros are a much less forbidding team than last year, in a rematch the Braves might be able to throw water on them, and we could have a Braves-Cards NLCS. With that situation in mind, I thought I'd share some observations about Ted's Team that I've absorbed by virtue of living around their fans.

(1) No True Closer: As last night showed, the Braves' foremost weakness is their closer, or rather their lack of one. Cards fans likely were more suprised at the 9th inning miracle come-back than were Braves fans, who have seen this kind of defeat-snatched-from-the-jaws-of-victory scenario many times before.

(2) Deceptively Effective Line-Up: The Braves don't have a lot of big mashers, and they are solidly middle-of-the-pack in terms of league batting statistics. Even so, they have a knack for timely hitting. K.Johnson and LaRoche bring down their average, but Francoeur (in place of Mondesi) and Betemit (in Chipper's slot) seem capable of putting up serious numbers for the remainder of the season. Add those unfamiliar names to Furcal, Giles, and, of course, A.Jones, and you've got enough gas to once again motor off with the NL East, even without Chipper.

(3) Question Marks in the Rotation: Hampton is apparently out for season, and who knows about Thomson. That leaves the Braves relying on Sosa, Davies, and Ramirez to round out their rotation. With his 7-1, 2.36 ERA record, Sosa has filled in nicely. Although the other two have winning records, they have ERAs above 4, similar to Suppan and Marquis.

In sum, the Braves' offense has performed above the expectations I had for them in March, while their pitching is well beneath them. With the apparently strong Smoltz, Sosa, Hudson triumverate, it's also a much tougher team in a best-of-five than a best-of-seven series.

I think a Houston/Atlanta NLDS would be very interesting, but I only can conjecture since the Braves completed all of their games with Houston in early May. I give Houston the edge due to superior power (Biggio-Berkman-Ensberg) and a superior pen (Lidge). I like our chances against both, but next time, how about a better job against Sosa, eh?

Evidently, Al Leiter's up for grabs. And, it seems, under conditions in which it's reasonable to expect the Marlins to retain a large share of his contract. Personally, I've always liked Leiter because he's a fierce competitor. Admittedly, however, he doesn't seem to have much this year.

Thoughts?

I know this web-site has an anti-mulder bent, but really, he pitched well last night.  Many times, the bottom of the inning would go by before I knew it had started.  Some of them were something like five pitch innings.  

The man was inducing ground balls, which, as I understand it, is much more his MO than is the SO.  

So, last night's game is good news.  

The Cards have no where to go but up, what with Rolen, Walker, Edmonds and Grudz still not in the swing of things