I'll paraphrase this by assuring you all that I have not been taking any "goof balls" or similar medications.

On today's Leafs Lunch there was significant discussion as to the Leafs keeping Kadri this season. MLHS discusses it here. And you can listen to the Leafs Lunch here.

After hearing both sides of the story (Brady's and Kat's) I have to say that while I respect Kat's knowledge, I'm not really sold on Kat's reasoning, specifically this part:

I told a friend this opinion after listening to Leafs Lunch, and he smacked me with something I had told him back in the day regarding his boy, Jason Spezza. He’s an Ottawa fan, and his response was this:

To play devil’s advocate….

You’ve argued in the past that the best place for Spezza was developing at the NHL level rather than the AHL level. My evaluation tells me that Kadri is essentially right where Spezza was after his first training camp. At the time, I thought Spezza should go to the A.

How is this any different? Wouldn’t Kadri benefit from NHL practice and coaching?

My response was:

Ah, touche … very interesting … my only counter I think could be the difference in size, Kadri has to bulk up. Another thing is that Spezza was a necessity on an offensively fragile team at the height of the trap. His offensive talents were needed in Ottawa more than Kadri’s are needed at this present moment in Toronto; Kadri would be a nice to have, but not a necessity. The game is different now, more opened up, with a focus on speed and skill, but when Spezza broke into the NHL, he was playing on a defensive club, with some talent around him, playing for Jacques Martin, a defensive-minded coach. It would have been easier for Spezza to step in and contribute than Kadri would at this point in time.

After reading that line of reasoning something didn't sit right. I realized it was a contradiction of sorts.

Kat says

"Kadri has to bulk up"

but then proceeds to say:

"The game is different now, more opened up, with a focus on speed and skill".

So doesn't this mean that Kadri's type of game (speed and skill) doesn't necessarily require him to "bulk up"? Spezza was bigger than Kadri is now, but as Kat says:

when Spezza broke into the NHL, he was playing on a defensive club, with some talent around him, playing for Jacques Martin, a defensive-minded coach.

So Spezza's size was needed for his role. I don't think anyone would compare Ron Wilson's style of hockey to Jacques Martin. And Ron Wilson has put a young player in the NHL before. He had a 19 year old Jan Bulis in Washington, he gave a young Milan Michalek a chance at 18 in San Jose and an 18 year old Oleg Tverdovsky in Anaheim.

And then there's Brian Burke. People talk about how he didn't rush Bobby Ryan or Corey Perry or Ryan Getzlaf. But as Brady pointed out, there was a huge amount of skill in Anaheim and therefore no need to bring them up. And even with the skill available, Perry and Getzlaf both played major roles at the age of 20. And if you go back to his Vancouver days, the Sedins were both 20 when they debuted and that was behind an effective offense of Markus Naslund, Brendan Morrison and Todd Bertuzzi.

Sending Kadri back to London makes sense if he's able to learn something further there. This was the line with Schenn before the decision was made to keep him. Schenn was capable of sticking as an NHL defense man at the age of 18, a position that usually takes longer to develop than forwards.

The Leafs Lunch crew brought up some good reminders of great teams that pushed a young star into the limelight:

The 83-84 Red Wings with 19 year old Steve Yzerman:

The Red Wings prior to Yzerman's arrival were absolutely abysmal. An assortment of above average talent but no real star (Ogrodnick aside!). They had missed the playoffs the previous 5 seasons in a row and just finished dead last in their division. Yzerman's arrival, coupled with a full season from Ivan Boldirev who had been acquired via trade midway through 82-83 and the acquisition of Ron Duguay, brought them immediately back into the playoffs in 83-84.

Yzerman was 5'11'' and 160lbs.

More recently we've seen some success with young stars:

Another London Knight, Sam Gagner. Sure, Gagner did have a bit more size during his rookie season than Kadri, but I think it would be interesting to see how much of a difference it makes given the Leafs substantial bulk in all other positions.

Of course an 18 year old Patrick Kane managed 21g 51a, 72pts and playing all 82 games while standing all of 5'9" and 160lbs in 2007-08. And he was playing alongside a bigger 19 year old, Jonathan Toews, who managed 24g 30a 54pts that same year.

A 19 year old David Perron did alright while being under 6' and barely 180lbs.

Heck, even an 18 yr old Phil Kessel survived to play 70 games.

All of this might not mean enough to you, so let's talk about another potential benefit of keeping Kadri that was put on display in one recent game. Shootouts. One of the main reasons that was quoted for the Leafs bringing in Kessel, was his shootout success.

"It'll be a while before our fans see him, but he'll bring tremendous foot speed. He should improve our power play and he's a good shootout player and in our game, that's an important asset," said Burke. "He's a dynamic player." - Brian Burke on Phil Kessel.

If they truly value shootout success as an important asset, it would be hard to ignore Kadri's apparent talent in this area when determining what to do with him. Does this alone earn him a spot on the roster, not in my eyes, but when you combine it with the other factors listed above and Wilson's apparent constant in-joke with the media and fans it seems like it is a possibility at the least.

Wilson's said Kadri would have to take a spot from the Top 6, quite possibly beat Matt Stajan or Mikhail Grabovski out of a center job. The Leafs are not the Red Wings or Penguins. Stajan and Grabs combined for 35 goals last year. Grabs had a total of 48 pts and a -8 in 78 games. Grabs faceoff was %44.5. If you don't want to replace the centers, then let's look at the wingers for the top two lines:

Ponikarovsky, Blake, Hagman and who? Kulemin? maybe.. Stempniak? possibly...Both of them were given the opportunity last year and 31pts and 26 goals combined is below average from 2nd line wingers. Sure Kessel will slot in there in November, so why not try Kadri until then at least? There are no guarantees Blake will perform as well as last year and if he falters you can slot Kadri in and move Blake to the third line.

A lot of people keep saying that we can replace the numbers we lost with Antropov, Moore at forward. Wouldn't Kadri be a possible source of some of this lost offense, at the very least until Kessel debuts?

Has Wilson been pulling the wool over our eyes, playing a mind game as Bill Watters would have you believe? Will it be the big reveal this year as Schenn was last year? I really don't know anymore, but I'm very interested to find out.

With each day Kadri seems to be learning more at a rapid pace and is starting to make a believer out of this Leafs fan who was certain he'd be in London to start this year.

To whit:

"If he's ready, he's ready," Wilson said. "When I watch him, I'm looking at how he moves on pucks, how he defends the forecheck and does he get the puck out cleanly.

"If he played in junior he might not get better. He might be beyond junior. You send some kids back and could find out later that he picked up bad habits or didn't try hard.

"But don't read into this that he's on the team. We just have to look at things like that. You have to look at the depth on our team, too. (The injuries) could delay some decisions. I'm playing some guys more than I like, but that's not always a bad thing." - Ron Wilson on Luke Schenn (Oct 1st 2008)

"I know what he's feeling right now," said Schenn. "Obviously there's a lot of eyes on him.

"He looks good and it looks like nothing is getting to him. If you show you're ready to play at this level, you're big enough and strong enough to make the jump, they'll make room for you no matter what your age is."

"My mindset is to make this hockey club," said Kadri. "It's what I want more than anything. I've been dreaming about this since I was a little kid."

Poll

Do you believe Nazem Kadri will play 70 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs this year (barring injury)?

62%

No way!! He's headed back to London before Oct 1st!

31 votes

20%

He'll get his 9 games and be back off to London.

10 votes

18%

Yes, yes I do!

9 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

Since the news broke of Brian Burke acquiring Phil Kessel for two first-round picks (2010,2011) and a second round pick (2010) and subsequently locking him up for 5 years and $27.5 million there have been many opinions voiced about the trade, both negatively and positively.

Some people seem to think that the price paid in draft picks may have been too high and/or the contract salary/term is too high. Some say David Krejci is paid less for better play (3 years, roughly $3.75 million/year). However, many fail to mention that Krejci re-signed on June 2nd, well before training camp had started and without having expressed that he would not be returning to Boston.

There was no talk of any teams offering him a RFA offer sheet and therefore no real competition involved in negotiating for him. With Kessel, there were obvious other suitors vying for his services which of course meant the price was going to go up. I think most "experts" agree that the ceiling for Kessel is much higher, whether or not he reaches it.

Some people try to compare the Kessel signing to the Blake signing, which seems pretty far fetched. Sure, there are some similar personal characteristics to both but that's where it ends. Can you really say signing a 22 year old to a 5 year contract is anywhere near similar to signing a 33 year old to 5 years? Kessel will be 27 at the end of his contract, Blake will be 38. How many Nhl'ers are still playing at 38? And how many are playing as well as most 27 year olds? I'm a firm believer in the theory that an NHL forward's prime years are between 23-28 years of age, and overall the statistics back this up. Locking Kessel up for the majority of these years seems like a no-brainer.

Still others like to say that Toronto doesn't have a Marc Savard to pass Kessel the puck and therefore we won't be seeing any 40 goal seasons out of him. I think if we look closely at who the current Leafs have we might not find a Savard, but we certainly can find one or two people who are capable of putting up numbers close to Savard.

Matt Stajan is only 25 years old (it seems like he should be older) and let's look at the numbers he put up last year:

76gp 15g 40a 55pts.

Not bad for a 25 year old playing on an unremarkable first line.

When you look at Savard's season when he was 25 years old it gets interesting:

67gp 17g 33a 50pts.

Yes I know, Savard had established himself as a prime setup man well before his 25th year but he was also gifted with some talented wingers for those years (Iginla, Val Bure, Knuble, Kovalchuk) and when he didn't have them his production dropped quite a bit. So it's not a one way street being a playmaking center, you need to have a true finisher on your wing in order to put up the assists.

Last year, Stajan's "finishers" were Jason Blake, Ponikarovsky and Antropov. This year they could include Phil Kessel. Does anyone not consider this an upgrade? Three players who only topped 30 goals once in what amounts to  roughly 19 years in the NHL (combined) versus one who topped 30 and nearly reached 40 at the age of 21.

I believe production is a two way street, Savard helped Kessel and Kessel helped Savard. Adam Oates had Brett Hull, Bondra and Cam Neely. Ron Francis had Jagr, Mario Lemieux, Pat Verbeek and Kevin Dineen. The list could go on and on...But the point is when a playmaking center is paired with a good finisher you usually get results. Will this mean Stajan's production will improve dramatically? Time will tell.

To help put things in perspective, no player from the 2006 draft has scored more goals in the NHL than Phil Kessel (to date). That includes names like Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, Jordan Staal and Milan Lucic among others. And Kessel trails only Backstrom for total points from that draft class. Would you trade two 1sts and a 2nd for any of those guys? Yes, Kessel has played more games than some of those, but it's still something to think about.

These are all just bare stats and stats do not tell the whole story. Some people get stuck up on the fact that Kessel had 6 total hits last year. Yes, 6. How do you go through 70 NHL games and only end up with 6 hits? Who knows, but if you are scoring 36 goals at the time who really cares? Does anyone really expect the Maple Leafs to have a shortage of hits this year? Let's see, they've added Mike Komisarek (191), Garnet Exelby (151) to a defense that already had Schenn (206) and Finger (136) plus they added Colton Orr (133) up front.

By the way, no one seems to care that Stajan (yes, Matt Stajan) led all Leaf forwards in hits last year. So Stajan will hit everyone and Kessel will score. Everyone got that? good.

What other problems do people have with Kessel? Oh, he just had shoulder surgery so he'll never be the same player again right?

Do I really need to list the young players that have had similar surgeries and continued to produce and develop afterwards? Kessel is 22, not 32. Recovering from major surgery is a bit easier for young pups. Hell, Antropov had his best year skating on knees that 90% of were not original equipment. Although technically it was impossible for the surgeries to slow him down any further or he'd be travelling backwards through time.

So I guess the real issue is the draft picks that were traded away. A 1st and 2nd round pick in 2010 and a 1st round pick in 2011.  Granted, first round picks are pretty valuable and one of the main problems with the Leafs previous regimes has been sacrificing draft picks for present gain. However, most of the "present gain" were players at or past their prime. I honestly don't remember any time the Leafs traded important picks for a young potential star player. Usually it was the Leafs trading away their youth for established veterans and then paying the price later on.

A lot of people look at this and say we gave up two 1st round picks! I see it as exchanging two 1st round picks for a 5th overall first round pick. Kessel was drafted #5 in a pretty deep 2006 draft after all. Let's step back and think about this. If at this past year's draft the Leafs were presented with the opportunity to move up to 5th spot by trading their 1st round pick (7th) and their 2010 first rounder would they have considered it? Brayden Schenn instead of Kadri? I think we could admit it would at least be considered right?

Then you have to think that with the moves on defense the Leafs are most likely not going to finish worse than last year. So let's say at best the Leafs gave up the 7th overall pick in 2010 and probably around 10th overall pick in 2011. Most of the "experts" agree that the next 2 drafts are not going to be as deep as the recent ones were, which of course remains to be seen. The Bruins have an excellent scouting staff so I'm sure they will make good use of those picks wherever they end up.

The bottom line is that success for a talented forward in the NHL often involves the right circumstances being in place. Kessel will have the opportunity to play more minutes than last year. He will be on the #1 powerplay. He will be able to grow as part of a core of other young forwards with the protection of a true heavyweight and a tough and seasoned defensive unit behind him. The opportunity to excel will be his to take, whether that happens or not it should make for an interesting ride.

Doesn't this look like a guy that wants to succeed in T.O?

With each passing day I am more and more convinced that Brian Burke and Peter Chiarelli are actually the same person or at the very least share one brain. The case for:

1. Pursue a goalie who performed extremely well with AIK in the Swedish Elite league. (BOS: Tim Thomas, TOR: Jonas Gustavsson)
2. Look for undrafted talent in the NCAA (BOS: Blake Wheeler, TOR: Tyler Bozak)
3. Bulk up with size on defense (BOS: Zdeno Chara, Aaron Ward, TOR: Mike Komisarek, Garnet Exelby, Francois Beauchemin)
4. Have an offensive D-man prospect that was a late round draft pick. (BOS: Matt Hunwick, TOR: Anton Stralman)
5. Have a big d-man in the minors looking to make the jump to the NHL (BOS: Johnny Boychuk 6ft 2in 225lbs, TOR: Phil Oreskovic 6ft 3in 217lbs)
6. Sign a legimate heavy weight to protect your skill players. (BOS: Shawn Thornton, TOR: Colton Orr)
7. Have a former Hab that was run out of Montreal on your roster that still carries a grudge: (BOS: Michael Ryder, TOR: Mikhail Grabovski)
8. Have a former Blues D-man from Southern Ontario (BOS: Dennis Wideman - London, ON, TOR: Mike Van Ryn - Kitchener, ON)
   
9. Both teams have at least 7 of their own draft picks on their active rosters.
10. Colin Stuart is the older brother of Boston Bruins defenseman Mark Stuart.

So, if everything works out the same way, Kadri (Drafted #7) = Kessel (#5), Kulemin (#44) = Bergeron (#45), Stralman (#216) = Hunwick (#224) and Tlusty (#13) should actually be an upgrade over Krejci (#63rd)!

Burke just needs to acquire a Marc Savard-type center (maybe for Kaberle?) and bring in a veteran scoring winger like Recchi and we can plan the parade!

Of course, things will go exactly the same with no deviance at all whatsoever, we can all dream.