SB Nation User Blog: Tom Martin

I stopped by The Knicks Blog today to talk about Tracy McGrady and the possibility of him going to...

Tom Martin — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 00:06:22 -0000

I stopped by The Knicks Blog today to talk about Tracy McGrady and the possibility of him going to New York. Thanks to Tommy Dee for having me on.

Recap: Rockets keep LeBron, emotions in check to defeat Cavaliers 95-85

Tom Martin — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:29:04 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

2 days ago: Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown, center, yells at official Scott Wall, left, after no foul was called as LeBron James (23) drove to the basket against the Houston Rockets during the second quarter of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2009, in Houston. Brown was ejected from the game. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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First and foremost, I'd like to extend a hand of thanks to Herman Sayger, who originally suggested the idea of implementing the three point shot. Lord knows we needed it tonight against Cleveland. So thanks for that, Herman.

Secondly, I'd like to commend Memphis for taking the Cavs to OT last night. It was evident that Cleveland was tired, especially with all of the open threes that we were getting.

Finally, we address our own performance, which was mostly good, and slightly bad. The good? We kept LeBron in check, and when it comes to defending Cleveland, that's about seventy-five percent of the work. The only Cavaliers to find a rhythm were Delonte West and Big Z. Otherwise, it was the best defensive performance we've seen from the Rockets in this young season.

Aaron Brooks' overall numbers were very good, but most importantly, he was in the lane every other possession. This is key to creating offensive opportunities elsewhere. He also got to the free throw line thirteen, missing only one of those. That's the equivalent of six made jump shots. Sometimes people forget just how valuable free throws are.

If there is anyone to truly commend on our victory, however, it is either Shane Battier or Trevor Ariza. Battier, for his defense and his rare offensive contribution (a Battier three always seems to energize the rest of the guys), and Ariza for his excellent production on offense. It was one of his most efficient outputs as a Rocket.

In a rare turn of events, the Rockets got destroyed on both the offensive and defensive boards. To combat this, the Rockets forced twenty turnovers. Whether it's forcing turnovers or grabbing offensive boards, Houston always finds a way to give themselves extra opportunities to score.

Luis Scola was notably absent, as was Chase Budinger. Sometimes, the shots don't fall. Other times, they are engulfed by a host of defenders, which was indeed the case every time Scola got the ball on the block. Wouldn't you love to, for once, see Luis just throw it down in someone's face?

In a perfect world, the Rockets would have shot better. There were countless possessions in which Houston had open jump shots, and they simply missed them. The Cavs took advantage of this, and stayed alive throughout the game. Cleveland, despite scoring 101 points per game, likes the low-scoring contests, as they are one of the better defensive teams in the league. Tonight, however, they were out-defended by a team that can still put down the clamps when necessary.

Fear The Sword

Olympiakos Ditching Von Wafer?

Tom Martin — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:27:12 -0000

Olympiakos Ditching Von Wafer?

Checking up with former Rocket Von Wafer, for the wrong reasons.

The Presumed Outcast Becomes Popular

Tom Martin — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:44:56 -0000

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George W. Bush. Barack Obama. Your two most recent "Hey, I'd like to have a beer with that guy" presidents. Perhaps they weren't the most qualified. Their backgrounds were not particularly impressive or extensive. You line them up next to some of the past greats, such as Lincoln or Washington, and it's obvious who was more successful, more accomplished. Yet, you voted for George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and subsequently gave them the keys to the world.

Why? Because you'd like to have a beer with them, that's why. In your wildest dreams, if you saw either W or Barack alone in a bar, you're convinced that you could sit down next to them and hit it off. It's all about identification. They don't intimidate you. They are you, and you are them.

Oddly, the Houston Rockets are the most popular "average" team that the NBA has seen in a long time. People are absolutely enamored with them. Kelly Dwyer and Henry Abbott sweat beads of fascination upon making the Rockets the subject of a column. Michael Lewis' lone basketball venture was based on a Rocket, Shane Battier. And I have to think that no matter what team a general basketball fan chooses to follow, they choose to root for the Rockets at the given opportunity. Why is this? It brings us back to the beer conversation.

I think we're past the point of favoring the Rockets because of their hustle. They're still scrappy, no matter what OAL wants you to think, but that's not the proper excuse to use. No matter what the outcome of a game is, we always find ourselves pardoning the Rockets for... well, some thing or another. It's time that we all just fess up and admit that we genuinely like this team. Not for the wins, or for the talent, or even because they might be your "hometown team." When it comes down to it, we really like the players. Maybe for their personality or their chemistry as a whole, but mostly, it's because we can all identify with the position that they are in. We feel ourselves fighting the same fight that they fight. They want respect, they want success. So do we.

Some teams you watch for the awe factor. Cleveland, for LeBron James and his acrobatics. Orlando, to see if anyone can survive a bout with Dwight Howard on the block. Los Angeles, for Kobe Bryant's ability to do just about anything.

Other teams make you want to study them. Phoenix, for their offensive theatrics. San Antonio, for the medieval stronghold that is their defense. Boston, for their ability to make all of those big names jell together.

And sometimes, you'll just watch a team because anything could happen. Golden State, for the general daily chaos. New Jersey, because you could see a rare win. And recently, Philadlelphia, for bringing back Allen Iverson once again.

However, with this Rockets team, it's all about personal identification. They are starless, with their backs against the wall. Whether or not you care to notice their statistics or their record, you know what they go through every day, because you go through it every day. You imagine how nice it would be to meet them, have that token beer, and discuss how similar your situation is compared to theirs.

You root for them because you root for yourself.

It's a few days late, but just in case you missed it, I present to you: "Matt Bullard Talks to...

Tom Martin — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:26:49 -0000

It's a few days late, but just in case you missed it, I present to you: "Matt Bullard Talks to Referees."

Interview with Jason Friedman of Rockets.com

Tom Martin — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:47:10 -0000

Tonight I had the opportunity to talk over the phone with Jason Friedman of Rockets.com. We here at TDS are big fans of Jason's work. It is honest, precise, open-minded, and most to our liking, free of an ego. If you're looking for inside information on Tracy McGrady, fast-forward to the final four minutes and take what you want from it. This wasn't supposed to be about Tracy, but rather about the current state of the team that is off to an impressive 11-9 start. Good stuff from Jason as always, and much thanks again to him for taking the time to chat.

Below is the audio. You can reach Jason on Twitter, and be sure to check out his work at Rockets.com.

Jason Friedman Interview

(Note: Sorry about the background chatter. It's not too noticeable, but sometimes it's tough to get things done in a fraternity house)

What's wrong with the Rockets' defense?

Tom Martin — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:26:08 -0000

More photos » by Steve Slocum - AP

Despite Chuck Hayes' effectiveness as a one-on-one post defender, he hasn't been able to make up for the loss of Yao Ming as far as team defense is concerned. Take a look at the height difference between the two, and that should explain why. (AP Photo/Steve Slocum)

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The Rockets used to be good at defense. Then Yao Ming left. And now, because of that, they aren't good at defense anymore.

That's the simple, dumbed-down analysis. But there's more that can be studied, with help from Hoopdata.com, to try to explain the reason for our sudden defensive decline:

We will come back to Yao Ming's direct impact on the Rockets in a second. For now, let's look at the changes that his absence has indirectly caused:

1. Pace

Without a solid post option such as Yao to build an offense around, the Rockets have had to up the tempo. Common sense tells us that pace and points allowed most likely share a positive correlation, meaning that the more we run, the more points we allow. Statistics prove common sense to be correct, as teams with a lower pace, such as Portland, Detroit, Charlotte, Miami, Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, and San Antonio, give up fewer points per game.

If you look at defensive efficiency, you notice that the same correlation exists for the most part, but there are plenty of outliers. Detroit's defensive efficiency is up around 106.1, meaning that they give up 106 points per 100 possessions. Every other team in the group that I listed above is between 101.2 and 95.4. This means that Detroit doesn't do a great job defensively. Instead, they give up less shots per game than most teams do.

That's your introduction to pace. So, where do the Rockets fit in? Currently, this is where we stand:

Pace: 97 possessions used per game -- 9th overall.

Points Allowed: 101.3 points allowed per game -- 20th overall.

Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions -- 18th overall.

Here are the same statistical categories, but from 2008-2009 (along with where they would rank this season):

Pace: 92.8 possessions used per game -- 18th overall (tied for 25th in 2009-10)

Points Allowed: 94.4 points allowed per game -- 6th overall (6th 2009-10)

Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions -- 4th overall (11th in 2009-10)

The game itself has sped up, too. Even Golden State, leaders in pace each of the past two seasons, are up to 104.7 possessions per game this season, as opposed to 100.9 last season. Yet, what's odd is that the defensive efficiency of the league is down this year (treat it like golf, lower is better). What can we attribute that to? Most likely the OTOR, or Opponents Turnover Rate. Turnovers are up, at 13.84 in 2009-10 compared to 13.256 in 2008-09. It's not a gigantic difference, but it could help explain the paradox before us.

Anyway, the whole point of the statistics is to show that without Yao, our pace has increased, thus making it tougher for us to defend. Yao impacts our defense when he's on the court, but his role on offense indirectly affects our defense as well. Remove Yao from the offense, and it hurts the defense that much more.

2. Yao's Direct Impact in the Paint

Above are screenshots of Hoop Data's "Shot Location" tab under the team statistics bar. Here, we are looking at shots around the rim, i.e. dunks, lay-ups, and tip-ins. The first statline is from the current season, and the second is from last season.

From left to right, the bar shows the following per game statistics: Shots made, shots attempted, field goal percentage, and percent of assisted field goals on shots made at the basket. Clearly, there is a distinction from last season to this season. Not to say that Chuck Hayes isn't a good defender, but Yao's ability to help and force shot adjustments is near-impossible to replace. It is this statistic that effectively illustrates Yao's importance on defense, as opposed to rebounds or blocked shots per game.

3. Yao's Impact Elsewhere

Talented NBA shooters have their limits, at least statistically. In the previous segment that dealt with offense, we learned the most efficient places to shoot from on the floor (three-pointer, at rim, and then jump shots from closest to farthest). When it comes to forcing opponents to take inefficient shots, the Rockets are in the top quarter of the league (8th, in fact). According to Hoop Data's OXeFG% (Opponent's Expected Effective Field Goal Percentage, based on where the opponent is being forced to shoot from), opponents should be shooting around 49% from the floor against us. It's not the greatest statistic, but when paired with shot locations, it does make sense.

However, this season opponents are shooting 51% against us, placing us in the bottom quarter of the league in Defensive Ratio (OXeFG% / OeFG%). Last season, we were in the top quarter of the league in Defensive Ratio, but had the same OXeFG% at 49 percent. We held our opponents below their expected effective field goal percentage, as they shot 47%. This season, as I have pointed out, opponents are making more shots than they are expected to make. Blame this on defensive rotations and closing out.

Without Yao in the middle of the paint, perimeter defenders are forced to show more help, thus delaying rotations and leaving opponents more open. So, despite the fact that opponents are taking the same amount of bad shots as last season, they are having a much easier time making them this season. It's probably due to poor closeouts and rotations. With Yao, everything becomes much easier.

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While the dumbed-down analysis is actually correct, seeing as Yao Ming's absence has severely hurt our defense, isn't it nice to see exactly what has been affected? I think so. But really, who cares what I think?

Game 16 Recap: Poor third quarter dooms Rockets as Spurs pick up first road win, 92-84

Tom Martin — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 21:02:39 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

14 days ago: Houston Rockets coach Rick Adelman argues a foul call with the officials during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game against the San Antonio Spurs, Friday, Nov. 27, 2009, in Houston. The Spurs defeated the Rockets 92-84. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Amid all of the ugly -- whether it was Trevor Ariza's painfully awkward double-clutch shots, Aaron Brooks' recklessness in the lane, or the clank-a-thon that was our third quarter offense -- there was the putrid officiating. Thirty-four San Antonio free throws compared to the Rockets' fourteen. I get it, we aren't aggressive; we didn't deserve to attempt more than fourteen free throws. But I'll be damned if our tenacity on defense, which was on display in full force, waranted 27 foul calls.

Yes, Ariza brushed Tony Parker on the arm while going for a steal. And yes, Carl Landry jumped higher than DeJuan Blair while going for a rebound, placing his arm on Blair's shoulder as Blair came down with the ball. I mean, I hate going into this. Hate, hate, hate it. But if you're an official, these are calls that do not need to be made. They're aggressive plays, the same aggressive plays that the San Antonio Spurs made on defense. And for every mini-run that the Rockets tried to put together to close the seemingly ever-present six-point deficit, there was a useless whistle to put an end to it.

With that said, bad officiating is one thing. Not scoring for eight minutes is quite another.

Give the Spurs credit, because they played fantastic defense. They begged Ariza to attempt yet another up-and-under, and he did, failing miserably each time. They forced Brooks to pass on each pick and roll, and it worked, as Chuck Hayes dropped an inexplicable 0-8 FG line. Everything the Spurs did on defense worked to perfection because the Rockets were unanable to adjust.

So if Aaron can't get into the lane with ease, what happens? Or what if Luis or Trevor can't score by themselves? What do we do? Um... panic?

It wasn't like the Rockets didn't have chances to score. The Rockets took twenty more shots than the Spurs. They grabbed seventeen offensive rebounds. But they just couldn't get good shots. And the good shots that Houston took didn't fall.

What happened to the constant variability of our offense? Suddenly, Kyle Lowry, Brooks, and Chase Budinger are afterthoughts. We MUST get them going again.

Anyways, Mizzou-Kansas is on. I've got to watch my other team. Perhaps someone else will share their thoughts as well. I'll admit, that was more of a rant than actual analysis.

Boxscore -- Pounding The Rock

How to score 100+ points per game without any "star" players

Tom Martin — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:30:36 -0000

Matt (aka "Only a Lad") had a nice rant earlier this week about not settling for simple analysis. In other words, he suggested that we do more than just call the Rockets "scrappy" and "hard-working" when searching for reasons for their success. I couldn't agree more with that statement, and figured I'd go stat-hunting to find some hard, yet basic proof as to why Houston has been more than just an afterthought this season, especially on offense. Here's what I found, primarily on Hoopdata.com:

To start, the Rockets take very efficient shots. It's easy to say that the Rockets are "efficient" because that's what everyone else says, but it's nice to find some data to actually back it up. As Matt has noted before, the two most efficient shots in basketball are the three-point shot (the corner three being the most efficient) and shots near the rim, followed by mid-range jumpers in order of closest to furthest.

As you might have guessed just by watching a game or two, the Rockets are eighth in the NBA in three-pointers made per game, as well as third in three-point field goals attempted per game. That rounds off to an effective three-point field goal percentage of 50.7, which is just below the league average. Though you'd like to see a higher percentage of threes made, it's comforting to know that the Rockets are taking the most efficient shot in basketball at a high frequency.

Despite their size disadvantage, the Rockets are fourth in the league at shots made around the rim per game, as well as shots taken around the rim. Mobile big-men, such as Carl Landry, Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, help to make that possible. So too do paint-addicted guards like Kyle Lowry and Aaron Brooks. And if you thought Trevor Ariza camped out at the three point line all game, then you're wrong - he's second on the team in shots made around the rim per game, with 3.1.

Hoop Data separates their mid-range jumpers into the increments of <10 feet (excluding shots directly at the basket), 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet. According to these numbers, the Rockets are fourth in the league in shots made less than ten feet from the rim, the third-most efficient shot. However, as you move further from the basket, the Rockets take fewer and fewer shots, until you reach the three point line. Houston is 21st in the league in shots attempted from 10-15 feet, and are 29th in the league in shots attempted from 16-23 feet. Simply put, we don't shoot ourselves in the foot with bad shot attempts.

In looking at overall offensive statistics, there wasn't anything that the Rockets do that makes a lot of noise. We're at or near the league average in nearly every offensive category. However, the two most important stats that Houston stands out in are Turnover Rate (TOR; percentage of possessions ending in a turnover) and Offensive Rebound Rate (ORR; percentage of offensive rebounds grabbed by a team). In simple terms, this means that the Rockets don't turn the ball over very much (18th in the league) and grab a bunch of offensive rebounds (4th in the league). We give ourselves a chance to score points at a higher rate than many teams do. Unfortunately, our overall offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) isn't anything to really brag about at 105.3, good for 12th in the NBA.

While the Rockets do need to work on some things, such as their abismal FTR (free throw rate), it's clear that Houston is no fluke on offense. They just make things... easier.

Upcoming Part Two: What's wrong on defense?

Turkey Day Recap of Game 15: Terry, Thomas key 130-99 annihilation of Rockets

Tom Martin — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 19:44:32 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

16 days ago: Houston Rockets' Chuck Hayes (44) has his shot blocked from behind by Dallas Mavericks' Shawn Marion during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2009, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Okay, this whole "Rocket-killer" thing is starting to get ridiculous. Is Jason Terry that impossible to guard?

Terry's stat-line versus the Rockets this season: 17-19 FG, 5-5 3pt FG for 51 points. And for kicks, he dished out ten assists last night, just to remind us how pathetic he thinks we are.

You'd think that Aaron Brooks or Kyle Lowry could keep The Jet from taking off at will. Aren't we a decent defensive team? Haven't we proven that a fast-paced team can still make routine stops at the other end of the floor. Evidently not.

We didn't contest shots. Our rotations were a step too late. Dallas moved the ball like they were toying with us, and kept doing so until there was an open shot, which there always was. Tim Thomas doesn't get 23 points on contested shots. It takes some space for him to operate, and he got plenty of it. It was just lazy, lazy defense.

It's Turkey Day, so this is going to be short. Here's a few thoughts from last night's embarrassment:

In a single half, if you play poor defense, a team might put up 50 points on you. If you play good defense, but the team manages to knock down just about everything within 30 feet, then they'll still put up 50 on you. However, if you play bad defense and a team finds a collective hot hand... that's when you look up at the scoreboard and see a 68 spot beside your paltry scoring output.
Chase Budinger might need Dr. Howard Mierzwiak to wipe his memory of his first two encounters with the Mavs. He's 1-14 from the field against them so far, and that's with plethora of missed WIDE-open shots.
Chuck Hayes went 1-8 from the field. This should never, ever happen.
Our shot selection was putrid. Mid-range jump shots in isolation aren't going to get us anywhere. We couldn't get into the lane without turning the ball over (ahem, Kyle Lowry). It was the least-aggressive I think I've ever seen us play.
Should Carl Landry start? No. Should Carl Landry be the frontrunner for 6th man of the year? Yes.
Lastly, I think a point needs to be made about how inept our half court offense has become. When the pace slows down, we begin to take uncomfortable shots and turn the ball over. Now, of all the players on our roster, who do you think plays most effectively in the half-court? Yup, Tracy McGrady.

And by the way, I don't normally leave games early, but in watching the Rockets stand around and let Dallas go to town on offense, I didn't think I'd be missing anything. First game I've ever voluntarily left early.