
Tommy Rancel
Mar 31, 2008 Jun 02, 2012 873 4250
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Matt Moore: All Right In Game 1
The match-up looked rough on paper. Matt Moore - in his second major-league start - was slated to face an explosive, predominately right-handed Texas Rangers lineup in Game 1 of the American League divisional series. Starting with Ian Kinsler at the top of the order, the rest of the lineup featured several other notable right-handed batters like Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli, and Nelson Cruz. The Ballpark in Arlington is also favorable to RHB (just ask Kelly Shoppach). Somewhere in between all that right-handed goodness was the 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton.
We soon found out that Matt Moore does not care much for paper match-ups. The left-hander was dominant in his seven innings on Friday - mostly against the five righties that brought concern when he was announced as the starter. The quintet combined to go 0-14 with five strikeouts. In fact, the only hits allowed by Moore – and in the game – came off the left-handed bat of Hamilton.
All Ron Washington's Men: The Rangers Talented Bullpen
The Texas Rangers did not make a splash at the 2011 trade deadline. Instead, they hung around in the shallow end, snagging spare parts from non-contenders; all the while building what is likely the most formidable bullpen in the postseason. Prior to the July 31 non-wavier deadline, Jon Daniels added not one, but two relief aces. In acquiring Koji Uehara and Mike Adams, the Rangers’ General Manager snagged two of the elite non-closing relievers in baseball, if not top-10 relievers in the game period. But Daniels was not done.
At the end of August, he added left-handed reliever Mike Gonzalez in a waiver wire deal in advance of the September 1 cutoff date, leaving him eligible for postseason duty. Gonzalez – the former closer turned left-handed specialist – joined Uehara and Adams who previously joined fire-breathing closer Neftali Feliz as a strong stable of arms for Ron Washington to use at the back end of ballgames. On Thursday, we learned that reliever-turned-starter Alexi Ogando will re-join an already stacked bullpen in the American League Divisional Series.
Before the Rangers dip in to their bullpen, the Rays are facing some stiff competition with left-handers C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison slated to start in the first three games of the series. Add in the potential for five quality hi-leverage options and the sometimes anemic, always inconsistent, Tampa Bay offense is in for an uphill battle.
We know what Neftali Feliz has done out of the Rangers’ bullpen, but here is just a taste of what the Rays offense may see late…
Maddon Taps Matt Moore In Game 1
We know easy is not in the Tampa Bay Rays playbook. Apparently, starting a rookie with just three major-league appearances and one start in game one of the American League divisional series is. With James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and David Price unavailable to start the first game of the 2011 playoffs, Rays’ manager Joe Maddon selected 22-year-old Matt Moore as his starting pitcher on Friday. In doing so, Maddon passes on veteran – yet inconsistent – starters Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann.
Fade To Black...
I'll admit this comes at an odd time of the season, but life doesn't care about the major league schedule. That said, this will be my final post as Editor-In-Chief of DRaysBay.com. Although this is the end result, the process has been on-going for a while behind the scenes.
It has been nearly two calendar years since I assumed control of DRB. I am proud to say that during my time the site has experienced its greatest growth. In fact, I am even prouder to say that July 2010 was DRB's best month ever in terms of traffic. In no way has this been my doing alone. Instead, it was the doing of the excellent staff in place as well as the wonderful community we have all built. .
Out of fear of leaving someone off an individual thank you list, I'll just thank my staff, past and present, the SB Nation team, the Tampa Bay Rays organization,the DRB community, and everyone who helped me along the way.
Now that we have that out of the way, I announce with great pride that Steve Slowinski will take over the day-to-day operations of DRaysBay. Steve came to us as a regular reader and then a contributor. After R.J's departure, it was clear that we needed some additional help and Steve has done an excellent job of stepping up. I have no doubt that the site will continue to flourish under his watch. In fact, I expect the site will continue see its brightest days under his leadership.
As for me, I'll be around. I intend to be an active member of the DRB community and still participate in the Podcast to be named later when possible. In addition to that, I continue to be a writer/analyst over at Bloomberg Sports, and working on some less time consuming projects on the side.
Until that time, it's been real. Good luck to all. On to the next one...
Report: Rays "Favorites" in Adam Dunn Sweepstakes
The rumor...
#Rays acting like don't want as DH only, but one exec said, "they are favorites.
As R.J. Anderson points out, Joel Sherman was the reporter who broke the Scott Kazmir trade so his reports may hold a little bit more weight that others. However, being the favorites for Adam Dunn does not mean the Rays will be the team to acquire his services. After all, the Cliff Lee/Yankees deal was "on the goal line" and when that didn't happen, New York was the likely destination for Dan Haren.
Adam Dunn, the offensive player, fits the Rays profile well. He hits for power, he takes his walks, and he strikes out a lot. Defensively, his numbers show he's been about average this year, but we know better than to put stock in a few months of defensive data. From all accounts - including advanced defensive metrics and scouting reports - Dunn is a terrible defender. While the Rays have an open spot waiting for him as a designated hitter, Dunn is not interested in that - at least he wasn't last week.
Rays Win In Thrilling Fashion 3-2; Evan Longoria Starts "Walk-off" 5-4-3 Double Play
Well that was quite a way to follow up the first no-hitter in franchise history. A night after Matt Garza made history, the Rays followed up with a thriller against the Detroit Tigers.
In this 'what have you done for me lately?' era, James Shields has not done much. In his last 11 appearances (10 starts, 1 relief), Shields has an ugly 7.13 ERA/5.38 FIP (fielding independent pitching). Outrageous as it may sound, some have even called for Shields, who is a top-40 trade chip according to Dave Cameron, to be traded.
On the other hand, in Shields' first 10 starts he carried a 2.99 ERA/3.44 FIP. He also registered 71 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. Baseball is a game of ups and downs. While Shields was probably pitching a little over his head during those first 10 starts, he is certainly not as bad as his last 10.
Shields has been the Rays' best, and most consistent, starter for the past three seasons. Anybody calling for his head after a handful of starts has just lost sight of the process. As R.J. Anderson points out, when in doubt, go with the larger sample size.
Tonight, Shields looked a bit more like he did in the first 10 starts than the previous 10.
Joe Maddon, Kelly Shoppach, and the Platoon
We're all still incredibly excited about Garza's performance last night and please, continue the discussion in these two threads. There have been hundreds of words written about last night already, so we're moving on to our regularly scheduled programming.
As much as people say Joe Maddon loves to tinker with his lineups and play the match-up game, I'm sure Joe wouldn't mind nine complete hitters and seven complete relief pitchers at his disposal. Unfortunately, few teams - if any - have that luxury, leaving managers to make due with what is given. This leads to a key component of managing; putting their players in a position to be successful.
For the most part, Maddon has the platoon system down. This is especially true in the bullpen. Of course, certain situations force a manager to do certain things, but in general, Maddon has used Randy Choate as a left-handed specialist, Dan Wheeler as a right-handed specialist, and allows guys like Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, and Rafael Soriano to roam free. Andy Sonnanstine has his slot in the long relief role, getting called upon in mop-up duty or in situations where he is needed to throw multiple innings. Lance Cormier is, well, um...Lance Cormier hasn't been good against anybody this season.
On the position player side, things are a little bit more difficult.
The Whiff: Jeff Niemann's Swing and Miss Pitch(es)
While watching Friday's abbreviated game between the Rays and the Indians, I noticed something from Jeff Niemann. Despite the less-than-favorable strikeout rate overall, when Niemann needed a swing and a miss, he had the ability (pitches) to get it.
Overall, Niemann is striking out a below-average 6.59 batters per nine innings (K/P) (league average 7.02). His 7.8% swinging strike rate is also below league average (8.4%). However, Niemann does posses a pitch or two that can generate a whiff.
According to MLB Advanced Media, the pitch is generally called a change-up. However, according to BIS (think fangraphs), it is a split-finger fastball. Both pitches are very similar in speed and movement - causing the classification issues. Perhaps RZ, or someone which an expanded knowledge of pitch f/x, could do a better classification job for us.
Regardless of the name, when Niemann throws his change-up/split-finger fastball, it usually ends well for the Rays and bad for the opposing hitter.
Reid Brignac & Wade Davis lead Rays to Series Victory In Cleveland
Less than 24 hours after breaking the 18-game Cleveland curse, the Rays started another streak in Cleveland - a winning streak. Behind the bat of Reid Brignac and a solid, not spectacular, performance from Wade Davis, the Rays complete the meatloaf (winning 2 out of 3 games) of the Indians while clinching a winning three-city, nine-game road trip (5-4).
Like David Price on Saturday night, Davis' day got off to a wild start. He battled with command in the first inning - throwing 20 pitches total including 12 strikes. He allowed a lead-off walk to Michael Brantley to come around and score the game's first run.
From there, Davis teetered on the brink of disaster, but tip-toed around the danger. He allowed another run in the second after the first two men reached on singles. The first two Indians reached base again in the fourth inning, but this time Davis escaped without allowing a run to score.
Maddon: Jeremy Hellickson "Possibility" For Rays Bullpen This Season
Well it doesn't help the current offensive woes of the past night and a half, but Joe Maddon is now on record as saying Jeremy Hellickson is a possible candidate for the Rays bullpen in 2010.
"You saw he had a little taste of it in Spring Training, he came out with guys all over the place and he got out of it [against the Yankees]," Maddon said. "Very casually in a sense, he was not offended by the moment or overwhelmed by the moment. You're going to see the same kind of approach from him.
"Out of the bullpen, that's a possibility, and I would not be opposed to that at all. But eventually he's going to be one of the starters, there is no doubt. To get a taste, I think he could do it, and it would serve him well, and us." --RaysBaseball.com
2008 David Price. 2010 Jeremy Hellickson? Sounds good to me.
Jayson Werth, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Adam Dunn: Who Excels At GTMI?
During a recent conversation with Jason Collette, he mentioned that Jayson Werth's slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) with runners in scoring position has been well below average this year. It seems ironic the Rays would try to acquire a player to help "get the man in" when the perception is he struggles with doing so on his current team.
With that premise in mind, I decided to run a similar exercise on run production to the one I did earlier this week. This time looking at some of the reported Rays' targets as well as some DRB hopefuls.
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The secret behind Rocco Baldelli's comeback...the stache
DRaysBay Signs Slowinski...again.
Identifying potential upgrades to the current roster is something Andrew Friedman does on a daily basis. It is also something I do here at DRaysBay. Going through our normal process of number crunching, and advanced scouting, the opportunity to strengthen the staff has presented itself. With that I introduce to you the newest DRB staff writer, Matt Slowinski...say what?
Like his brother, MVSteve, Matt has been a Rays fan since 03-04. Also like Steve, he has been a lurker, and some-time commenter, on the site. Here is some additional background info from Matt...
Sure, I'm a college student living in New Jersey and going to school in PA, in addition to loving baseball (and of course the Rays) I also enjoy playing ultimate frisbee and golfing. I've played baseball my whole life, but have now moved on to playing club ultimate at college, which is allowing me to look at baseball from an analytical standpoint while still having a very recent connection to the game. Hopefully I'll be able to produce some material that everyone can enjoy.
In addition to that, Matt was a varsity catcher on his high school team which means he will be a manager in the majors one day and can re-count his glory days just like Kevin Kennedy.
Welcome aboard, Matt. Thanks for helping me exploit the market inefficiency on Slowinski writers.
Rays Take Matinee Game & Series From Baltimore In 5-4 Finale
A little more than 12 hours after "epic fail," the Rays and Orioles picked up right where they left off. The Rays' offense spotted James Shields an early four-run lead - only to see him give it all back by the fourth inning. Evan Longoria got it started with a solo shot in the first inning to put the Rays on the board 1-0. The Rays would add two more in the second, and an additional run in the third, thanks to RBI from Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar. Longoria would figure in the scoring again as his bases loaded walk in the sixth inning was the deciding factor in the game.
For those keeping score, Brignac, Zobrist, and Aybar were among the better run producers from this morning's post. On the other hand, Mr. GTMI, Jason Bartlett, humbled this writer by going 0-4 - stranding six runners in the process. Thanks, MVB.
Back to the game...
Getting The Man In: Who is The Rays' Best Run Producer?
The quick and easy way to find out the answer to this article's title would be to look at the Rays' Runs Batted In leaderboard. Evan Longoria leads the Rays with 63 RBI, but that does not mean he's the best run producer. A middle-of-the-order bat like Longoria has a significant amount of additional RBI opportunities than a batter in the same lineup who bats lower or behind players who don't get on-base as much. There lies the flaw in using RBI as a lone measure of productivity.
The genesis for this post came from e-friend, Tom Haberstroh of hoopdata.com. In a tweet, Tom noted that despite having the ninth highest total of base runners when batting, Prince Fielder has only driven in 8% of those base runners (23 of 278). Ask any group of casual baseball fans if they think Fielder is a run producer; I'm willing to be the majority would say yes. Well, that would not be true - at least so far in 2010.
When Ryan Howard received his $125 million dollar extension earlier this year, many were quick to point out his outrageous RBI total. It is true, Howard drove in a National League-best 287 runs combined in 2008 and 2009. It is also true, though, that he had an NL-high 983 base runners to drive in. This is not to knock Howard - he does drive in more runs than league average - but he just easily illustrates how the stat can be misleading.
In 2010, Howard is once again a top the most base runners category. In fact, he has had a whopping 298 runners on base for him. Second in the majors (and first in the American League) is our very own Evan Longoria. The Rays have put 294 base runners on for Longoria. Of those 294 runners, 53 of them have scored. His 18% average is slightly above the league average of 15%; however, it is not the best percentage on the Rays.
So I ask again, who is the Rays' best run producer?
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Reports: Tampa Bay Involved In Discussions for Jayson Werth
As the Rays were busy on the field completing what is known as "epic fail," it seems that Andrew Friedman was working his magic behind the scenes. According to multiple reports from ESPN...
Jayson Stark and I heard this: Tampa Bay involved in discussions for Jayson Werth.
The Phillies have talked to multiple teams about Werth, but a source indicated Tuesday night that Tampa Bay appears to head the list of interested teams.
As the story goes, the Phillies have the hots for Roy Oswalt, but would like to free some payroll space at the same time. Moving Werth would give them some more payroll space; enter the Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, Jul 20, 2010 7:05 PM EDT
30/M/Bullpen seeking game action...
Tampa Bay Rays Sign Rocco Baldelli To Minor League Contract
Press Release
ST. PETERSBURG, FL-The Tampa Bay Rays have signed outfielder Rocco Baldelli to a minor league
contract. He has been assigned to the Charlotte Stone Crabs (A) of the Florida State League.Baldelli, 28, rejoined the Rays as a special instructor during spring training. He spent the 2009 season playing
for the Boston Red Sox, where he hit .253 (38-for-150) with seven home runs and 23 RBI in 62 games. The
right-handed hitter is a six-year major league veteran, including his first five seasons (2003-04, 2006-08) with
the Rays. He owns a .279 (526-for-1,886) career batting average with 59 home runs, 257 RBI, 98 doubles and
59 stolen bases.Baldelli was selected No. 6 overall by the Rays in the 2000 June Draft. He played in a career-high 156 games
in 2003, finishing third in American League Rookie of the Year balloting. He missed the entire 2005 season
and most of the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to injuries, but returned to the Rays on August 10, 2008 and
remained on the active roster throughout the postseason.
Let me start this by saying for Rocco Baldelli, the man, I am very happy to hear this news. As I became a Rays fan in 2001, there were not many players to choose from in terms of a "favorite." When Rocco arrived on the scene full-ime in 2003, I had found "my guy."
The last few years have been very unfortunate for Baldelli due to his medical condition. The fact that he is at a point where he can attempt a comeback, and do it with the Rays is a good enough story for me. The trap is not to have high (or any, really) expectations going into this experiment. If you think Rocco Baldelli is the bat we need to put us over the top, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
Free Winston Abreu: The Anniversary Special
In what could be an annual tradition for DRaysBay, the time has come to publically campaign for Winston Abreu. In 2009, the Free Abreu campaign was started after the right-hander dominated the International League to the tune of a 1.94 ERA/2.14 FIP. In 51 innings at Triple-A, he struck out 77 batters (13.59 K/9).
In mid-June of '09, Abreu was briefly called up by the Rays. He made just two appearances before he was designated for assignment. He was subsequently traded to the Cleveland Indians soon after. He would make three appearances for the Indians before being DFA for a second time.
Instead of accepting Cleveland's assigment, he opted for free agency and re-signed with the Rays as a minor league free agent. After the season, Abreu had surgery for an aneurysm, but was back with the organization in time for Spring Training. Since then he has been pitching for the Durham Bulls - once again dominating the IL.
Rays Blow Early Lead and Series Vs. Yankees
After a half-inning of play, it seemed the Rays were on their way to a series victory against the Yankees in New York. Unfortunately for us, there were eight more innings to be played. As quickly as Tampa Bay jumped out to a 3-0 lead, David Price nearly handed it all back as he allowed two runs in the bottom half of the first. It would be the beginning of what ended up as Price's worst start of the season.
Price would settle down for a few innings before imploding in the fifth. He allowed a run on a walk, wild pitch, and a single, before getting two outs with the game at a manageable 4-3 score. With two outs, he gave up a walk, single and a double that pushed three more runs across the plate - giving the Yankees a 7-3 lead, and effectively ending the game.
In all, Price allowed seven runs on seven hits and three walks. He struck out just three batters and used 96 pitches in 5 innings. While Price's start was a disappointment, the offensive output was equally as disappointing.
Rays Fail To Hold Late Lead As Yankees Walk Off 5-4 Winners
Despite being in control of the scoreboard for most of the night, I never had the feeling that the Rays were in control of the game. Of course, this had more to do with the amount of weapons the Yankees' have than ghosts. Whatever it was, it just seemed like we were destined to be disappointed on this night.
James Shieldswas okay - not great - on the evening. He went six innings allowing three runs on four hits and three walks. The bad news was two of the four hits were home runs. The good news is they were solo shots. Both home runs came with two outs in the sixth inning as Shields made his climb toward 100 pitches. He was the beneficiary of some nifty glove work in the outfield as B.J. Upton made a nifty sliding catch to rob the Yankees of a lead off runner in the fifth. To close out the inning, Gabe Kapler leaped along the right field wall to rob Nick Swisher of extra bases - if not a home run.
Shields threw 96 pitches total with 57 dropping for strikes. Only five pitches induced a whiff on the night. When Shields missed, it was mostly on the outside corner to lefties. Because of the short porch in right field, it was a good strategy - until the sixth inning.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, Jul 16, 2010 7:05 PM EDT
I see without seeing. To me, darkness is as clear as daylight. What am I?
Book Review: "Positional Hitting" by Jaime Cevallos
As we continue our mid-season refresher, I decided to take a step back from Statistics and take a look at something that leans more toward the scouting crowd.
More than a year ago, I attempted to crack what is now known as The Zobrist Code. As the story goes, Ben Zobrist went from a below-average major league hitter to an American League All-Star within the span of a calendar year. Many were amazed by the transformation that took Zobrist from back-up infielder to Zorilla, yet few (none) bothered to investigate why. After weeks of searching, I came across one man who stepped forward from the shadows to shed some light; that man is Jaime Cevallos.
Over the last year, we've highlighted Cevallos' work with Zobrist, including speaking to Zobrist himself. Just this off-season, another member of the Tampa Bay Rays organization, Justin Ruggiano, jumped aboard with "the swing mechanic's" unique approach to training.
Cevallos has many skeptics - including some on this site - however, his belief in his system remain strong as ever.
Along the way, there have been calls for more information on Cevallos' revolutionary teaching philosophy. Well, your calls have been answered with Jaime Cevallos' new book: Positional Hitting: The modern approach to analyzing and training your baseball swing.
After the jump, you'll find a preview/review of the book. As I received the book, Jaime's one request was for un-biased and honest review. Here goes...
David Price Tosses Two Shutout Innings In All Star Start
Although Bud Selig says this one counts, it's hard to really get upset about the American League's loss to the National League in the All Star game. Maybe when the Rays make the World Series, and do not have home field advantage it will mean more, but for now I am more excited about how David Price pitched than anything.
For most of the franchise's existence the All Star game has been a charity case. Pre-Sternberg era, the Rays would send their one representative who would get an inning of playing time late in the game and that was it. The times have changed. Last year, the Rays sent their entire infield to the mid-summer classic. This year, they had three starters including the game's starting pitcher - something that seemed inconceivable three years ago.
The radar gun in Anaheim may have had some All Star jitters, but every radar reading available had Price throwing heat. He threw 22 fastballs in 23 pitches with an average velocity of 97.92 mph. He maxed out at 99.6. Of his 22 heaters, 15 of them landed for a strike - including two swinging strikes. More importantly, Price tossed two scoreless innings against some of the National League's best hitters.
He did get some help from his buddy Evan Longoria. Longo started one of his signature 5-4-3 double plays to end the second inning and close the book on Price. Longoria also recorded hit a double, walk, and scored a run. Carl Crawford was officially 0-2, but he reached on a fielder's choice in the fifth inning. Soon after he would swipe the AL's only stolen base. Both Rays' would be stranded at one point in the game - shocking. Rafael Soriano came in to pitch a perfect eighth inning, but the damage was already done at that point.
Congrats to the Rays' All Stars. Thanks for making us look good.
The Rays Interested In Ted Lilly?
So far all the trade rumors involving the Rays have made sense. Cliff Lee would have been an upgrade over any current starter on the staff. Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Prince Fielder, or any bat really, would be a welcomed addition to the inconsistent lineup. However, this latest nugget from Boston writer, Nick Cafarado doesn't make much sense...
5. Matt Garza, RHP, Rays - It wouldn't be shocking to find out that the Rays would be willing to talk about Garza as a trade piece. Tampa Bay needs a hitter, and has righthander Jeremy Hellickson, who is 11-2 at Triple A Durham. The Rays were rumored to be in on Lee, but it appears they are more willing to deal players from their current roster instead of prospects. One NL scout said the Rays have been very willing to include B.J. Upton in trade talks, and would even consider moving Wade Davis in the right deal. The Rays would love to get an effective hitter, having been snakebit with Pat Burrell and Hank Blalock.
6. Ted Lilly, LHP, Cubs - Definitely one of the attractive second-tier pitching candidates available. The Rays have some interest, but he would also become a target for teams such as Texas, Minnesota, and perhaps Detroit.
I understand the part about Matt Garza and B.J. Upton being potential trade chips. If we can't sign either long-term, at some point we are going to have to move them. If we can improve now, and for the future, by moving one of them, so be it. On the other hand, having " some interest" in Ted Lilly is a head scratcher. Whether you prefer traditional or advanced metrics, Lilly is not that good.
He comes with a record of 3-8 and an ERA of 4.08. That is the definition of meh. Looking at advanced metrics, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 4.73 and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) of 4.75 are even less impressive. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .257, or 30 points below his career average suggesting he could be the bearer of negative regression.
Lilly's stuff is also mediocre. He barely touches 86 mph on his fastball these days, and generates a whiff less than 8% of the time overall. His strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is below average - around 6.0 - while his walks per nine (BB/9) is an acceptable 2.22. His home run per nine innings (HR/9) of 1.48 seems high to the naked eye, but looking at his career rate of 1.34, not so much. His 10.4% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB%) is slightly below his career number of 10.8%.
These marks would be slight improvement over Wade Davis, but again, marginal at best. Plus, these numbers come in the National League, not the division known at the American League (B)East. This move would be a reactionary move after losing out on Lee, and something that would stray far away from the Rays' line of thinking.
Oh, did I mention he makes around $6 million for the rest of the year and we have Jeremy Hellickson at Triple-A ? Yeah, pass.
Report: Rays "appear to be getting serious" About Corey Hart
This latest rumor comes to us from Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune...
#Rays appear to be getting serious about #Brewers' Corey Hart. TB has pitching to trade with Futures starter Jeremy Hellickson ready.
You can take "appear to be serious" as you may, but color me intrigued. Some will see this report and take it as Hart for Hellickson, but I don't think that is what Mr. Rogers (pun indented) means. It means that because of Hellickson's readiness, the Rays have a number of options - namely, pitching options - to choose from in their pursuit of a bat. As for Hart, he is definitely is a good player, and one we covered in our Trade Handbook.
10. Corey Hart - OF
- Rest of Season Salary: $2.4M
- Rest of Season Projection:.353 wOBA, 7.3 wRAA (~0.7 offensive WAR)
- Contract Status: Eligible for final year of arbitration after 2010 season.
- Notes:This isn't a perfect fit, but bear with me here. Hart is a good offensive player that is having a power surge this season (17 HRs already) and is suffering from some bad luck with balls in play (.259 BABIP). He's a player built in the mold that the Rays like - fast, aggressive, good command of the zone - and he's relatively cheap this season and would provide the Rays with OF/DH depth over the next two seasons. However, it does seem silly to be acquiring another outfielder when we already have Joyce and Jennings waiting for roster spots, and Hart is not a great defender (career -11.3 UZR in the outfield). I see him as a back-up plan if nothing else works out.
Since the handbook went live, Hart has hit three more home runs giving him 20 on the season. His BABIP has also rebounded in recent weeks. After posting BABIPs of .368 in June and .414 so far in July, his 2010 number now sits at .312 - or right in the neighborhood of his .307 career BABIP. With a slash line of .289/.351/.565 and a .389 wOBA, his value may be at it's highest point.
The danger in acquiring a player who is possibly at, or nearing, his peak is falling into the the trap of giving up too much. In their current standing, the Rays are in position to overpay for talent, but not by much. Perhaps the difference between winning 95 games and 96 games will never be more important than it is in 2010. While I am okay with giving up something valuable for Hart's services, I am also wary of falling for the allure. I'm pretty sure Andrew Friedman is as well.
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