SB Nation User Blog: Tommy Rancel

Grant Balfour Saves Game In Seventh Inning Jam; Rays Sweep Jays

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:28:39 -0000

I know Dan Wheeler was credited with the save today, but Grant Balfour was the real closer this afternoon. In the highest leverage situation of the game (3.00 pLI), Balfour was at his best. He entered the game in the 7^th inning with the game hanging in the balance. The Rays were up 3-2 and the Jays had the bases loaded and just one out. Needing a strikeout or a pop up, Balfour got Kevin Millar to pop out to second before retiring Vernon Wells on a flyball for out number three.

On the afternoon he would throw 28 pitches in 1.2 innings. He had fantastic command today and 19 of those 28 pitches went for a strike. Balfour threw 25 fastballs at an average of nearly 93 mph. He also threw a slider and two pitches that were classified as curveballs. You can see them located at the bottom of this chart.

More after the jump

via brooksbaseball.net

On the few occasions in which Balfour missed the strike zone, he missed in the right areas. The two curveballs missed low and he missed an inside fastball to a righty and one outside one to a lefty. The other three "balls" were within the normalized strike zone including the eighth pitch to Adam Lind that should've ended the at bat. You can see this pitch marked with the #8.

via brooksbaseball.net

Even with last night's bump in the road, Balfour has been one of the keys to the bullpen's run of recent success. Along with J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler and the rest of the gang, the Rays pen is once again a strength. Over his past 15.1 innings, Balfour has a K/9 of 9.53 while his walks have dropped to 1.78 per nine over the same time frame. A shinny 5.33 K/BB and no home runs give Balfour a FIP of under 1.5 during the last 30 days. Even though his velocity is down from 2008, Balfour is throwing near 93.5 mph now and he's throwing more sliders overall.

Many outsiders said the Rays would need to add a closer, but with Wheeler's improvement, the Iceman at the end of the game, and Balfour brining the heat, the Rays pen may be at its all time best. The bullpen played a key role in each of the Rays three one-run victories in the series. With the sweep of the Toronto, Tampa Bay has pushed the Jays 4.5 out of third place, 8.5 out of the wild card and 9.5 games back in the division.

That David Price kid may also work out too.

Dioner Navarro Showing Early Signs Of Rebound

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:58:44 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Take caution, but Dioner Navarro is starting to hit a little bit. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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Don't look now, but over the past week the Rays best hitter has been Dioner Navarro. I know that best hitter and Dioner Navarro haven't been synonymous this year, but it's true. Ok, let's throw out the small sample size alert; however Navi has hit .375/.412/.750 over the last five games. The more encouraging news is he is not just getting seeing eye singles or bloop hits. He is driving the ball with authority and has four extra base hits over his last 17 plate appearances. He had just 13 in his first 243 PAs.

Once more, it's hard to see this five game stretch and get excited for a guy who is hitting .223/.252/.335 overall, but you have to start some where. Strangely, Navarro's mini hot streak has come with an increase of off speed pitches. Pitchers are throwing him fastballs nearly 64% of the time this year, but only around 53% over the last five games. That could just be because of the style of the pitchers he has faced, however, it's something to keep an eye on.

Navarro is still hacking quite a bit. His O-Swing overall is 26.7% and it's been up over 30% during these five games. Only Evan Longoria, is swinging at more pitches outside of the zone during the stretch. On the other end of the spectrum is Gabe Kapler, who has not swung at one pitch out of the zone in the past week; the man is disciplined.

With the Rays offense in a slump over the past week, it's nice to see a game like last night where everyone got involved. Navarro himself had three hits including a double. While it's way too early to say Navi is going to break out in the second half of 2009 like he did in 2007, it wouldn't be a shock.

Report: Rays Sign 16 Year Old Venezuelan Cesar Perez For $1 Million

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 20:17:36 -0000

Same kid as the post below, but we are starting to get more details about Cesar Perez as well as the money involved. SI's Jon Heyman posted this on his twitter

rays signed Venezuelan third base phenom cesar perez, 16, for $1 million, i hear. kid can play

That's a nice chunk of change for the 6'2, 180 lbs third basemen. Perez is very young at age 16 and I've heard questions about his defense at third. Even if he doesn't stick at the hot corner, there have been whispers of him being able to move to the outfield. The big draw is his power potential. According to reports and everything else I can gather this kid shows a lot of pop from the right side.

Evan Longoria and Pat Burrell Join Dioner Navarro In the Slump

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:00:43 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

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Dioner Navarro is feeling the heat. A year after being an all star, Navarro is making a legitimate case for being the worst player in baseball. Navi is hitting .214/.244/.321 with just seven walks in 252 plate appearances. His plate discipline is a complete mess as R.J. illustrated and his O-Swing of 26.5% is a career high. However, over the last 30 days the Rays have had bigger offensive problems than Dioner Navarro.

Pat Burrell has been in a season long slump. Of course, there was a neck injury that sidelined him for a month, however, neck injury or not, .222/.335/.305 is not getting it done. Burrell is approaching 200 plate appearances and has a combined eight extra base hits. B.J. Upton has seven XBH in the last 12 games. I'm not calling Pat the Bat, Pat the Bust, but clearly his production is not what any of us imagined. Over the last 30 days, Burrell is hitting .167/.310/.288. Dioner Navarro is actually been better over the last month hitting .227/.263/.360. Both are poor and both are everyday players.

A while ago, I wrote about Evan Longoria's mini slump. That mini slump has turned into a bonafide month long slump and we might have the hamstring injury to blame. In the 26 games since his return to the lineup, Longoria's batting average of .214 is actually lower than Navarro's over the same span. His overall line since the injury is .214/.316/.381. Longoria's BABIP over the past month is .254 so it's not completely all bad luck. Since tweaking the hammy on 6/2/09, his K% is up over 26% and he's swinging at 28% of pitches outside the zone. Luckily, Longoria's defense has remained solid despite the injury. I know the fans voted Longo #1 in the home run derby, but it's probably best if he skipped the even which he has already hinted at.

Getting Longoria healthy should fix his problems. Even with the recent slump, his OPS is .914 on the season. The injury is more of a concern than the production to me. We've seen this type of season before from Dioner Navarro. That's not an excuse, but with the available options, there isn't much room to make a deal. I'd like to see John Jaso get a shot, but obviously the Rays organization knows something more about his defense than we do. Burrell may be the most confusing of all. We all knew we were getting a streaking player, however I didn't expect the streak to go from bad to worse. Is it time to free Willy?

The Rays are facing another July swoon, hopefully they can duplicate the success after the all star break that they did a season ago. To do that, all three players mentioned above are going to need to pick up the slack. The time is NOW.

Tampa Bay Rays Send Four All Stars To St. Louis; Longoria Voted #1 in Home Run Derby

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 19:26:03 -0000

Despite the snub of J.P. Howell a.k.a the Iceman, the Rays will send four all-stars to the mid summer classic for the first time in the franchise's history. They stand a chance to send a fifth in Carlos Pena, who is a finalist for the final spot in the American League. Remember just a year ago, Evan Longoria made the team via the final vote.

Longoria won't have to wait for the final vote this year. The 23 year-old was the leading vote getter at third base and will be the first Rays player to start an all star game. He is the AL leader OPS among third basemen and remains one of the top defenders at the hot corner. Longoria also finished first in the fan voting for the home run derby. It is not known if he will participate in the event. He did compete in the 2008 home run derby finishing in last place with three home runs.

Joining Longoria in St. Louis will be a pair of first timers. Last year's team MVP, Jason Bartlett was selected to his first all star team as well as former super sub turned Zorilla, Ben Zobrist. Bartlett is enjoying a career year at the plate hitting .362/.402/.567 with a career high eight home runs. His .362 average is second to Ichiro Suzuki, however Bartlett is about 10 plate appearances short of qualifying for leaders boards thanks to his DL stint.

DRaysBay has covered Ben Zobrist probably more than any other player on the team and deservedly so. After showing power potential in 2008, Zobrist has literally exploded in 2009. His 1.015 OPS is tops in the AL as is his .323 ISO. Hitting .286/.406/.609, he is tied with Longoria for second on the team with 16 home runs. Besides home runs, Zobrist has set career highs in doubles, triples, runs scored and RBI. While his offense has grabbed the headlines, Zobrist has excelled at his new home of second base. His 7.0 UZR (min. 250 innings) at second base is the best in the big leagues.

Rounding out the Rays quartet is the old man, Carl Crawford. At age 27, CC will make his third all star appearance. Crawford struggled in the early portion of the season, but has rebounded nicely. In his seventh full season, he is hitting .318/.374/.459. His batting average and OPS would be career highs. Recently, Crawford has shown more power at the plate and his could possibly top his career high of 18 home runs if he continues to swing the big stick.

I admit I am very disappointed that J.P. Howell didn't make the team. Howell has been the glue that has held the Rays bullpen together and he deserves a spot. Each year players skip the all star game or unable to participate, and with Joe Maddon as the manager, maybe he will reward Howell with one of those spots. If not, you still have to be proud of the four guys who made the team. As R.J. pointed out, you'd be hard pressed to find a better group of players on one team in the AL.

AL WAR Leaders Min. 240 PA	WAR
Ben Zobrist	4.2
Joe Mauer	4.0
Evan Longoria	3.8
Jason Bartlett	3.4
Carl Crawford	3.2

The time is NOW to vote Carlos Pena in as the 5^th member of the Rays on the squad.

Catch 23: A Look At Carlos Pena's Defense in 2009

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:35:36 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

11 days ago: First base umpire Ron Kulpa signals a fair ball as Tampa Bay Rays' Carlos Pena reaches for grounder hit by Florida Marlins' Jeremy Hermida during the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, June 28, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. Hermida was put out on the play. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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One of our main goals on the site is to remain objective. Yes, we are fans. Yes, we have our favorite and our least favorite players. However, we try to be fair to all partiers because after all we are fans of the team first and foremost.

Carlos Pena is one of the tougher players to be critical about. The guy is a saint off the field and a masher on the field. However, after his latest bucker-esque error, I decided to look at the numbers on Los.

Offensively at age 31, Pena is in the middle of his second best season as a pro. He is leading the American League in home runs (23) and runs scored (58). He is also second in walks with 51, just two behind Marcos Scutaro. His .914 OPS is third best on the Rays among qualifying batters. If it weren't for Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixiera, Pena would be a leading candidate for his first all star appearance.

Defensively at age 31, Pena is in the middle of his worst season as Ray. A gold glove winner in 2008, Pena has been a below average defender in 2009; regardless of the metric. For the traditionalists, Pena has made eight errors in 78 games this year. He made just two errors in 132 games last year. UZR wise, Pena has been earned a -2.7 rating this year; a 6.6 run decline from his +3.9 in 2008.

Before we have any thoughts of putting Pena out to pasture on the DH farm, let's remind ourselves that UZR is good measurement of what has happened so far. It does little in the way of projecting the future of one's defensive performance. Pena also plays one of the lesser demanding positions and can easily bounce back. Just for comparison's sake, a 31 year-old Todd Helton had a -2.7 UZR in 2004. He rebounded to average a +2.6 UZR over the next three seasons ages 32-34. Now Helton is just one example, and no comparison is perfect, but it gives a better idea than "oh my god Pena has lost it."

Is there a chance Pena has declined defensively? Sure, but as we know defensive metrics aren't perfect and it's better to look at a few years instead of just one. Over the past three seasons, he has been an above average defender. I can't count the amount of times he's saved his fellow infielders as well as show amazing reflexes on scorching line drives.

The Rays have Pena under contract through 2010. At that time Pena will be 32 going on 33. One would think he would have a few good years left in his bat. Pat Burrell's contract also runs through 2010. If Pena has declined that much defensively, the Rays could seriously look at Los as a DH; or at least that's my hope. I'm not one for sappy/happy endings, but I'd love to see Carlos Pena end his career in Tampa Bay. Hopefully, he and the Rays do too.

7/2 GDT: The Andy Sonnanstine GDT

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:40:30 -0000

Just because Andy Sonnanstine has left the rotation doesn't mean he's left our hearts. With no Rays game tonight, we dedicate this GDT to Boom Boom Sonnanstine and the Durham Bulls. Gameday available at dbulls.com

Jason Hammel Finds Control With Colorado Rockies

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:54:55 -0000

The Colorado Rockies were one of the best teams in June. One reason for that was Jason Hammel just happened to be one of the major's best pitchers in the month. The former Tampa Bay Rays swingman is now a staple in the Rockies rotation. Hammel went 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in five June starts. His FIP was an even better 3.00.

Even with above average stuff, Hammel hasn't racked up many K's. His K/9 for the season is a meh 6.25, but improved control has put his K/BB at nearly 3.0 (2.95). After his lastest outing, a complete game five-hit one-run performance (loss), he has been worth 1.9 wins above replacement this year.

Overall, Hammel's HR/9 is down less than 1.00 this year, but that's jaded by an extreme home/road split. He has pitched 50.1 innings on the road and allowed just two homers (0.36 per nine.) At the homer friendly Coors Field, he has allowed five homers in just 30.1 innings (1.50 per nine). Still, his home runs have regressed none the less.

via www.fangraphs.com

The biggest change for Hammel has been the cut in walks. During his Rays career he averaged a BB/9 of 4.17. This year he is sitting at 2.12 and was under 2.0 in the month of June. Like fellow former Ray, Edwin Jackson, it seems that Hammel has gotten control of himself; literally. In his last five starts (32.2 innings) his K/9 is nearly 7.0, while his walks are down to just 1.39 per nine.

via www.fangraphs.com

Stuff wise, he isn't throwing much differently than his Tampa Bay days. He is throwing slightly less fastballs (59.9% in 2009, 61.1% career) while throwing a few more curves (14.3% in 2009, 12.3% career). He has continued to mix in his slider and his change up as well. Unlike some of his former brethren in the Bay Area, Hammel has not seen a significant drop in velocity. His fastball is still around 92 mph while topping out around 95. Hammel always had good enough stuff to get swings and misses and this year he is doing that well. His swinging strike percentage is nearly 13%.

It's hard to find a fluke in his 3.90 ERA/3.52 FIP. His .326 BABIP is right inline with his career .325 and his LD% is actually up 2%. He's stranding nearly 67% of his runners which is slightly below his career average. As mentioned above his home runs are down and while his HR/FB of 8.3% is pretty low and probably unsustainable for a guy who gives up his fair share of fly balls, it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that he keeps it within that range. Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez both pitched over 190 innings for the Rockies last year with lower HR/FB rates.

Hammel found himself as the odd man out in the Rays rotation battle this spring. Rather that see him go on waivers and possibly grabbed by another team, the Rockies stepped up to the plate an offer a mid level prospect, Aneury Rodriguez, for him. While Rodriguez, 21, struggles in Double-A, it's too early to say the Rockies won this trade hands down. Hopefully for the Rays sake it works out for both parties, but right now it is definitely Hammel time in Colorado.

(H/T to Fangraphs for the stats/graphs)

James Shields Gets No Support In Jays Shutout Of Rays

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:50:16 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher James Shields, right, puts his face in his glove as the Toronto Blue Jays' Scott Rolen rounds the bases on a home run during the eighth inning. Adam Lind and Rolen hit back-to-back home runs. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Canada Day seemed a lot like groundhog day to James Shields. For the first seven innings of today's game Shields pitched well; real well. Unfortunately, once again the leagues best offense decided to take a day off on the day he pitched. Sans two eight h inning home runs, Shields kept his team in the game and got the Dan Haren treatment. The Rays took a loss in the series finale 5-0. It was the third time the Rays have been shutout this season; twice with Shields on the mound.

The Rays have scored 69 runs in Shields's 17 starts this year. That's just over four runs a game. Much has been made of the Diamondback's support or lack thereof for Dan Haren (68 runs in 16 starts), but Shields has been given just one more run of support in one more start. Looking deeper, the offense has scored just 46 runs while Shields is still in the game or 2.70 runs per start. The same offense has given Jeff Niemann 68 runs while still in the game (4.53 runs per). That's 22 more than Shields in two fewer starts.

Shields allowed two earned runs (three runs overall) on five hits and a walk in the first seven innings. He struck out eight batters and got 11 swinging strikes. He finished the seventh inning with 101 pitches. Having allowed a home run in the seventh and being over the magic 100 pitch threshold with his team down 3-0, I figured Shields was done for the night. However, Shields trotted to the mound in the eight and retired Aaron Hill before giving up back to back home runs to Adam Lind and Scott Rolen. Both of the homers were hit off of change ups that were left up and over the plate.

via brooksbaseball.net

It looked as Shields didn't have a good feel for the change up today. He only threw 16 of them total and got 50/50 results in terms of strikes on the pitch. A normal Shields starts would mean nearly ¼ of his pitches would be change ups. Shields threw more sliders (21) and almost as many curves (13) as he did his signature pitch. Without his go to pitch, Shields threw more fastballs (46%) than normal. I don't know if the Rogers Centre guy is a bit fast, but Shields averaged 92.15 mph on the heater and maxed out at 94.5. Coming into the game he was averaging 90.0 even on his fastball.

You hate to see Shields pitch well and the team come up empty; literally. However, you must tip your hat to Ricky Romero for dominating the Rays (take note David Price). The Rays had a chance to sweep the Jays well into fourth place, but settling for two out of three against a division opponent in their home will have to do. Don't look now, but even though the Rangers aren't division opponent, they are a wildcard contender. The Rays hold a one game lead over the Rangers, who face the Angels tonight. The Rays will need to take two out of three in Texas to make this trip a real success.

Willy Aybar Leads Rays To Victory In Longoria's Absence; Matt Garza shuts down Jays again

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:55:07 -0000

Back on Christmas Eve 2008, Dave Cameron said of all the non starting major league players that deserved a full-time job, Willy Aybar stood out from the rest of the pack. Over six months later, Aybar still remains ahead of the pack. Filling in wherever needed, Aybar has accumulated 170 plate appearances this season. All he has done is put up the best numbers of his career. After last night's three hits including his seventh home run, he is hitting .287/.382/.483 with 14 extra base hits. He also has as many walks (23) as strikeouts (23).

Most teams would be panicking to replace a player of Evan Longoria's caliber, but for the Rays all they need to do is just pencil Aybar's name in. A switch hitter, Aybar just fills in, becomes the Rays #3 hitter and the offense doesn't miss a beat. While Longoria remains one of the best defenders at third base, Aybar is an adequate replacement despite what "local experts" say.

Longoria's cranky hamstring is going to be an issue for the next few weeks; however, Aybar's steady play should ease some of the pain. After signing an extension worth a possible three years and $4.8 million dollars this offseason, Aybar has produced 0.9 WAR or $4 million dollars worth of production so far. He won't grab many headlines, but Aybar likes to keep it on the "low" anyway.

B.J. Upton got things started early last night hitting a solo home run on the first pitch of the game. It was Upton's seventh home run of the season and his fifth in June. It was also the team's 39^th home run for the month of June, setting a new team record for jacks in a single month. As the weather has heated up, so has B.J. With his shoulder finally healthy, Upton hit .324/.395/.562 with 15 extra base hits in 120 plate appearances for the month. Maybe those who vote for team MVP should take note that with a healthy Upton the Rays went 19-7 in June; I'm just saying.

Carl Crawford continues to torment Toronto's pitching staff. CC hit his second home run of the series, his eight of the year. Like Upton, Crawford also hit five home runs in June and finished a slugging percentage of .500 or better for the second straight month. His power looks to be blooming, however his speed has been lacking a bit. After starting the season a perfect 30-30 in steals, CC went 10-16 in June and grounded into four double plays. There haven't been complaints publicly, but you have to wonder if the turf is taking its toll on his legs once again.

I don't know if a day off is in Crawford's future, but Ben Zobrist returned from a semi-day off. After missing most of Monday's game (9^th inning defensive replacement), Zobrist officially went 1-1 last night, however he reached base three times (two walks) and drove in a run via sacrifice fly. Jason Bartlett also had a hit, but whiffed twice on two pitches that were about four feet off the plate. Even MVP's have a bad game here and there. The Rays were once again a little too aggressive on the bases with a caught stealing and a pickoff, however the bats again were mighty with three home runs and two doubles.

The Rays got another stellar start from Matt Garza, who scattered seven hits and allowed just one run over seven plus innings. Like Jeff Niemann the night before, Garza didn't strike out many (3) and relied heavily on his defense. Once again he threw over 70% fastballs and maintained velocity throughout. Garza averaged 95 mph on the fastball and maxed out at 97.4. His last pitch of the game registered above 96 on the gun. There is something about Garza and the Blue Jays. In his last six starts against Toronto he has allowed just two earned runs in 45 innings; call it blue magic.

James Shields takes the mound against Ricky Romero in the matinee finale. The Rays have pulled three games ahead of Toronto and are now just four games behind Boston. They could do some serious damage to the Blue Jays psyche with a sweep today. The Jays are just 6-11 against the AL East while the Rays are 15-12.

Final note: Don't call J.P. Howell a closer, just call him the Iceman; six games "chilled" and counting.